Until the numbers are FINAL, no one really knows where they will end up.
As you hold that sales report and read it like scripture, you probably will feel very foolish when it is revised substantially to the downside.
You know that the cancellations of more than 500 1/4 oz coins and well over 400 sets have not been deducted yet from those numbers - from info from reported buyers.
No one has sung yet, not even a peep, except for Half with his earphones on - not paying attention to the world around him.
If numbers are revised "substantially" to the downside (seems like you are backtracking on your prior insistence that 2008s were the new Kings), I won't feel foolish. I've always said numbers will likely be revised down, and have remained open to them being revised down substantially. Even if numbers drop as low as you previously have argued (sub-2006) I won't feel that makes me foolish or proves your reasoning was sound. Like they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
I've said all along that we need to wait for numbers to be final. I'm not the person making claims that my personal beliefs should trump the facts we have. I don't read the sales report "like scripture." But in the absence of ANY other hard data, it's what we have. You are happy enough to rely on the sales data as "scripture" up until a point; since all of your arguments suggest that the sales numbers were accurate until the time things went on backorder. Of course, that's not a very logical position to take- when the crux of your theory is that the numbers are unreliable.
It's pretty funny that you accuse me of treating the sales report as scripture, given that your faith-based arguments about 2008 numbers are more dogmatic than anything.
I'm not sure how seriously to take your statements at this point.
Either you really believe what you right -- in which case I think you've lost objectivity; or you are just trying to amuse with irrational statments to provoke a response.
Do you have that hankee ready to wipe the tears away from your eyes... Get ready to eat some humble pie......
I think you must be kidding. Keep it up, it's funny stuff.
As I watch the continuing train wreck in the economy I think we should be prepared for some possible pain in next few months/years.
Like it or not we are not immune from the winds blowing through the economy. Money spent on collectables is easily defered. Precious metal prices still underpin a lot of the coin collecting world both directly and indirectly.
There is a strong push down in PM prices from general deflation and reduced industrial demand. This is countered by increasing fears of inflation as federal reserve pumps more and more dollars into system. Absolutely massive amounts of liquidity is being poured into system to fight the underlying trend.
Country after country are considering devaluation of their currencies in a 21st century version of protectionism.
They can devalue all they want. I don't care if the pog goes to $50/oz., it'll still be an oz. of gold, and it'll still be worth more than those paper receipts for imaginary considerations that they call "dollars".
It's a shell game, played with smoke & mirrors. Don't be fooled.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
You dont have an answer to that question, but you worry about it every day.
The coins dont exist, they never did. They were excess orders that were cancelled in early December.
>>
7/8 the mint is the one that determines mintages, not you or I. So when you say coins don't exist, you have no way of knowing how many were minted.
Did the mint take more orders than available coins? Yes.
But they do that with all the other bullion products.
That is not anything out of the ordinary, just look at how the proof gold eagle numbers have soared over the past four weeks. Are those wrong too?
It is easy to pick the coins you love and say that this time it is different but you have no way of knowing other than what you are guessing.
Since the numbers from the mint have stopping changing much it is normal to assume they have clarified the totals and this is close to the finals. I expect they may drop a little from here but as far as the 2008 w unc dropping over a thousand coins to go under the 2006 w unc I don't see it happening.
I also remember being told just after the 1/4 plats went dark that next week the numbers would drop. Then it was the week after, and the week after. Then it was the middle of January, and now the end of January. Next month it will be the end of February. Then it will be 2010.
Meanwhile I am happy I bought the buffalo and plat proofs. LOL.
Not to put words into 7over8's mouth...but I think his basic thrust is that based on unfulfilled orders from members on this board, as well as our knowledge from widespread contacts within the hobby...the Unc APE numbers will drop principally because there has yet to be a proper reconciliation between sales tallied vs orders already cancelled (and yet to be cancelled)...and those numbers will likely be significant. In fact, based on past Mint practices...isn't there already a precedent for this?!?
And to all the doubters out there, I say this...you have a right to believe that the currently known Unc sales numbers will eventually seemlessly translate into final mintage numbers...but why get all exercised when a counter opinion is offered? I too happen to believe that the final plat Unc mintage numbers are going to be lower than currently believed...but that doesn't mean that anyone holding Buffs or Plat Proofs needs to panic...because a decline in the Unc numbers won't translate into an increase in other areas.
Now if this is simply an exercise in pumping up the proofs or uncs as the new kings for short-term profits...or maintaining a prior year's issue as the reigning king...I can't speak to such gamesmanship. I'm just fortunate to own all of the coins in question...and don't plan to sell anything anytime soon...so this thread is all rather amusing.
<< <i>Not to put words into 7over8's mouth...but I think his basic thrust is that based on unfulfilled orders from members on this board, as well as our knowledge from widespread contacts within the hobby...the Unc APE numbers will drop principally because there has yet to be a proper reconciliation between sales tallied vs orders already cancelled (and yet to be cancelled)...and those numbers will likely be significant. In fact, based on past Mint practices...isn't there already a precedent for this?!?
And to all the doubters out there, I say this...you have a right to believe that the currently known Unc sales numbers will eventually seemlessly translate into final mintage numbers...but why get all exercised when a counter opinion is offered? I too happen to believe that the final plat Unc mintage numbers are going to be lower than currently believed...but that doesn't mean that anyone holding Buffs or Plat Proofs needs to panic...because a decline in the Unc numbers won't translate into an increase in other areas.
Now if this is simply an exercise in pumping up the proofs or uncs as the new kings for short-term profits...or maintaining a prior year's issue as the reigning king...I can't speak to such gamesmanship. I'm just fortunate to own all of the coins in question...and don't plan to sell anything anytime soon...so this thread is all rather amusing. >>
US Mint Website! All Gold Unc. Is Not Available, AGAIN. PRICES ADJUSTMENT _____ AGAIN???
Charles Crews ** CU Members that I have had Buy/sell deals with alohagary,dabigkahuna,goldman86,fivecents,endzone,clackamas,ericj96,Bochiman,Wingsrule,adriana,claychaser,holeinone1972,itsnotjustme,MJcoin,Kishul,jsego,TWQG,carlwolfort,jmski52,steelielee,grote15
We all know you are the Buffalo Hunter in disguise, why try to prove otherwise....
after all, you are the one that tends to go away and sulk for long periods of time, not I
what happened after you made the wrong call on the 06w one oz coin, claiming that the USM was right with that sky high 1 oz figure when it was actually much lower.....?
you were proven WRONG and you went away for awhile.....
I guess you are now packing you bags again, ready to take the next train out of town.
The reported cancellations are from parties on and off the board where 80% of the total amount cancelled are parties known to me, they have no reason to not speak the truth.
We kept a close eye on delivered coins, with orders placed throughout the period, in increments, most cancelled but none delivered.
Seems like we have a better handle on this than you guys just shooting off you mouth?
<< <i>I recall our beloved Buffalo Hunter held strong to the Coinworld numbers on the 2006 W plats as gospel.
I wonder what happened to that guy? One day he was the number one authority on First Spouses (well, at least according to him) and the next day he was gone... >>
"Seven" disappeared as well, never to be heard from again when the plats went back on sale...
<< <i>I recall our beloved Buffalo Hunter held strong to the Coinworld numbers on the 2006 W plats as gospel.
I wonder what happened to that guy? One day he was the number one authority on First Spouses (well, at least according to him) and the next day he was gone... >>
"Seven" disappeared as well, never to be heard from again when the plats went back on sale... >>
Is he gone or just morphed? I wish he would come back but I guess he is quietly collecting the Spouse coins while the bashers (and mint pricing) keep the numbers low.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
My own theory is that Seven was a Cylon, and after being tossed out an airlock by the Crew of Battlestar Galactica (many of whom reside on this Board), he is being replicated at this very moment, just awaiting an opportunity to sneak back into our midst. Don't say I didn't warn you!
The reported cancellations are from parties on and off the board where 80% of the total amount cancelled are parties known to me, they have no reason to not speak the truth.
We kept a close eye on delivered coins, with orders placed throughout the period, in increments, most cancelled but none delivered.
Seems like we have a better handle on this than you guys just shooting off you mouth? >>
How have I shot off my mouth? I stated the absolute truth that "until PROVEN otherwise" the 2006 W are kings.
Until you have proof, not speculation, the 2006 W's are kings. Right now the only PROOF there is is the documented numbers put out by the mint that state the 2008's are approximately 1000 mintage higher than the 2006's. Thats the information the general public uses in the secondary market. Thats the "handle" i have on it.
I do own quite a few by the way, but I wish I could trade them for Buffs. I could flip the buff's immediately and then pick up the plats CHEAP on the secondary mrket.
<< <i>My own theory is that Seven was a Cylon, and after being tossed out an airlock by the Crew of Battlestar Galactica (many of whom reside on this Board), he is being replicated at this very moment, just awaiting an opportunity to sneak back into our midst. Don't say I didn't warn you! >>
LOL (I loved that show as a kid, haven't thought about it in years. What's Boltar upto these days??).
I hope the 2008's are the lowest mintage. I missed out on buying Platinum in 2006. I am not even sure what I own. I don't keep it at home and have to look through my ebay, paypal, usm, cc statements, checkbook, etc, to figure it all out.
Mean time I am going to start an inventory of my cache.
My plans are to leave various things to different friends or blood and want to have it done prior to the OBAMANATION.
Interesting word. Goes both ways.
I also have noticed a run on guns and ammo.
Am I wrong?
I don't talk about personal aspects of this subject for obvious reasons.
I do however have things that are mine and will not let any person, persons or government take them from me. (wife included)
Onward with the world and technology.
I just want to mention that if you are unfamiliar there is a technology called RFID.
Radio Frequency I dentification.
Just this morning I cut tags from my kids clothes that have those rfid tags in them.
It is used for inventory control.
But you are familiar with EZPASS RIGHT!! Thats RFID
Well RFID is creeping into many things.
I was thinking that the USM should use RFID in there packaging of their products.
Great way to control inventory.
I keep all packages but the coins are in the capsules they came in and transferred into my intercept shield boxes which are off site in multiple high security locations.
I figure not all in in basket as they say.
Call me paranoid. I don't care. I just want to know my s..t is safe.
How about you?
Can you shed any light on this topic?
Offer any ideas as to safeguarding our collections?
I plan one day to have another place. Then I can have it all with me. I will also see anyone coming for a great distance.
Cheers
Ships are safe in harbor but thats not what ships were built for.
"You are happy enough to rely on the sales data as "scripture" up until a point; since all of your arguments suggest that the sales numbers were accurate until the time things went on backorder. Of course, that's not a very logical position to take- when the crux of your theory is that the numbers are unreliable."
NYC- I dont think that 7/8 doubts that the Mint can count, just that they don't know when to STOP counting. As far as I can tell, he's stated all along that they just kept taking orders and tacking on numbers to the sales report for coins that they didnt have. This would of course have to happen at the END, now wouldn't it? I think the real debate is whether or not these late "orders" translated into "shipments." You know there are many with cancelled sets. You, yourself are waiting for an order that will never come.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
<< <i>I hope the 2008's are the lowest mintage. I missed out on buying Platinum in 2006. I am not even sure what I own. I don't keep it at home and have to look through my ebay, paypal, usm, cc statements, checkbook, etc, to figure it all out.
Mean time I am going to start an inventory of my cache.
My plans are to leave various things to different friends or blood and want to have it done prior to the OBAMANATION.
Interesting word. Goes both ways.
I also have noticed a run on guns and ammo.
Am I wrong?
I don't talk about personal aspects of this subject for obvious reasons.
I do however have things that are mine and will not let any person, persons or government take them from me. (wife included)
Onward with the world and technology.
I just want to mention that if you are unfamiliar there is a technology called RFID.
Radio Frequency I dentification.
Just this morning I cut tags from my kids clothes that have those rfid tags in them.
It is used for inventory control.
But you are familiar with EZPASS RIGHT!! Thats RFID
Well RFID is creeping into many things.
I was thinking that the USM should use RFID in there packaging of their products.
Great way to control inventory.
I keep all packages but the coins are in the capsules they came in and transferred into my intercept shield boxes which are off site in multiple high security locations.
I figure not all in in basket as they say.
Call me paranoid. I don't care. I just want to know my s..t is safe.
How about you?
Can you shed any light on this topic?
Offer any ideas as to safeguarding our collections?
I plan one day to have another place. Then I can have it all with me. I will also see anyone coming for a great distance.
AGE's are back up at the Mint -- repriced down again.
The 1/10th is now bargain-priced at only $124.50...
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
NYC- I dont think that 7/8 doubts that the Mint can count, just that they don't know when to STOP counting. As far as I can tell, he's stated all along that they just kept taking orders and tacking on numbers to the sales report for coins that they didnt have. This would of course have to happen at the END, now wouldn't it? I think the real debate is whether or not these late "orders" translated into "shipments." You know there are many with cancelled sets. You, yourself are waiting for an order that will never come.
True, I have an open backorder for 11 plat unc-w sets. Not really waiting for it though, just waiting for them to finally cancel it.
You're absolutely right about the real question-- whether or not the sales figures represent shipped orders. If sales numbers are only comprised of filled orders, the only revisions down would be for returns. If sales numbers include backorders /unfilled orders, the revisions down will be greater. For 2008ws to be lower than 2006, the total number of unaccounted for returns and backorders would need to be approximately 1,000 per denomination. That's just a little too many for a reasonable person to hope for.
I think it's misguided to think 2008 numbers NEED to drop under 2006 numbers to be good coins. As others have pointed out, the 2008-ws are doing okay with their "high" numbers of 3400-4600. Whatever the drop is from here, the 2008s are low enough to be compelling.
To the extent 7/8 generates responses, it's less about his theory and more about his delivery. He's as stubborn as any faith-based evangelical. The "crying in your hanky" taunts to those who don't adhere to those beliefs are silly, and the proclamation of 2008-ws as the new "kings" is not only premature, but likely to be wrong.
Real numbers will come out eventually, and regardless of where they end up, there's a lot to like about the 2008-w platinums. Low mintage coins with good designs at a small premium to melt.
I also love all 3 years of the APE uncirculateds. As far as mintages the 2007s may have suffered some loss of numbers in 1st half of 2008. I know I sold for scrap 15 each of the 1/2 and 1 oz coins.
I'm going to get a bunch of the 2006-2008s slabed reverse in front to highlight different designs.
<< <i>I also love all 3 years of the APE uncirculateds. As far as mintages the 2007s may have suffered some loss of numbers in 1st half of 2008. I know I sold for scrap 15 each of the 1/2 and 1 oz coins.
I'm going to get a bunch of the 2006-2008s slabed reverse in front to highlight different designs. >>
PLEASE SND ME A COPY OF THE PHOTO FOR OUR NEW STUDY.
<< <i>I also love all 3 years of the APE uncirculateds.
I'm going to get a bunch of the 2006-2008s slabed reverse in front to highlight different designs.
I'm with you. I wish PCGS offered a multi-coin slab like NGC, I think it would be nice to have each of the 3 coins displayed together. >>
Just send in a cracked out PCGS 69 from each year and have NGC put it in a multicoin slab and PRESTO, you have a perfect "70" 3 coin set in one holder!
<< <i>After viewing drei3ree's chart, my Proof 1/2 oz'rs are gonna be worth some$$$$$$ in the futrue. >>
Goldbully--I like the 2006 burnished $25 & $50, but the 2008 $50 proof is clearly the KING of the proofs! Get em while you can...in the summer of 2006, the 2004 $50 proof was selling for over $10,000 in PCGS 70dc.
Well given that there are at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder, there will be 9/10's of the reduction you claim "can't happen".
Additionally, single coin options in some denominations have hundreds of reported pieces cancelled, puts you "over the top" of the number you believe - "can't happen"
I'm big enough to accept your witty apology for the comparisons to the Illinois Governor and the Evangelicals when we know the true numbers.
I too made some decent bucks in the 1oz Buff Unc, but am surprised that the coin has run its course for now, stagnating in the 1500-1600 range, if you can sell quantities.
I would never flip the plat uncs for buffs now.
IMO, those 08w plat uncs are gonna catch most by surprise. I wont repeat my reasoning. Most on this forum are tired of hearing it, but, they will be saddened more by ridding themselves of these coins before they met their true potential.
I believe when the Mint releases the actual 2008 w uncirculated Platinum mintage numbers, taking into consideration all of the verified cancelled orders and such......
the final tally will be negative numbers......and the coins you now have in your possession.........
<< <i>I believe when the Mint releases the actual 2008 w uncirculated Platinum mintage numbers, taking into consideration all of the verified cancelled orders and such......
the final tally will be negative numbers......and the coins you now have in your possession.........
<< <i>I believe when the Mint releases the actual 2008 w uncirculated Platinum mintage numbers, taking into consideration all of the verified cancelled orders and such......
the final tally will be negative numbers......and the coins you now have in your possession.........
WILL DISINTEGRATE!!! >>
Like your avatar? >>
Worse than my avatar, which came in ancient Roman coin lot.
<< <i>Collectors not caring, flippers looking for new targets and trying to make some $$$ - I don't think these are going to have a sudden resurrection. >>
I do think these are a great long-term hold, but it'll be a long slow burn, like the proverbial lobster in the pot of boiling water. One thing that may help is that I don't see ANY '09 issues with any sex appeal. Sure, I'll covet my high relief, but it'll be a flipper's nightmare with the high mintages. That may force people into staying with the '08s in interest.
NYC - Well given that there are at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder, there will be 9/10's of the reduction you claim "can't happen".
Additionally, single coin options in some denominations have hundreds of reported pieces cancelled, puts you "over the top" of the number you believe - "can't happen"
I'm big enough to accept your witty apology for the comparisons to the Illinois Governor and the Evangelicals when we know the true numbers.
7/8
First, you place the words "can't happen" in quotation marks as if they are mine. They are not.
If you want to make up numbers and pretend they are real, that's one thing, but please don't make up quotes and attribute them to me.
Second, you say there are "at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder" and that "some denominations have hundreds of reported pieces cancelled."
Looking back at the sales numbers, as of November 9, there were 1257 sets sold (assuming those numbers were accurate).
As of November 16, there were 2165 sets sold. So it increased 908.
Sets went backorder on or about November 13. I know that because I placed an order that day. None of us know how many sets were sold from November 9 until November 13. You don't believe it could be as high as 908. However, I'm guessing you'll agree that SOME number of sets were sold from November 9 to November 13, and that (assuming sales numbers include backorders), the rest of that number is made up of a rush of sales after the sets went backorder. Either way, it's inaccurate to say there were at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder-- set backorders did not start on November 9.
As for "some denominations have hundreds of reported pieces cancelled" I don't know where you get that from. Given your fake attribution of quotes to me and your mischaracterization over 900 orders for sets taken since backorder, I hesistate to accept the accuracy of that statement.
I'm perfectly willing to accept the possibility-- even likelihood-- that the numbers for 2008 unc-ws will decrease from here. But there is a HUGE gulf right now between 2008 and 2006, and I've looked at all the sales numbers from the outset, and it seems very unlikely to me -- almost impossible--that 2008s will be lower than 2006.
Also, I don't understand your irrational insistence that this is required for 2008s to be good coins. They don't need to be lower than 2006; even with current numbers (which we ALL agree are likely to come down) they are good coins. You should just relax and wait for the numbers to come out.
Comments
Until the numbers are FINAL, no one really knows where they will end up.
As you hold that sales report and read it like scripture, you probably will feel very foolish when it is revised substantially to the downside.
You know that the cancellations of more than 500 1/4 oz coins and well over 400 sets have not been deducted yet from those numbers - from info from reported buyers.
No one has sung yet, not even a peep, except for Half with his earphones on - not paying attention to the world around him.
If numbers are revised "substantially" to the downside (seems like you are backtracking on your prior insistence that 2008s were the new Kings), I won't feel foolish. I've always said numbers will likely be revised down, and have remained open to them being revised down substantially. Even if numbers drop as low as you previously have argued (sub-2006) I won't feel that makes me foolish or proves your reasoning was sound. Like they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
I've said all along that we need to wait for numbers to be final. I'm not the person making claims that my personal beliefs should trump the facts we have. I don't read the sales report "like scripture." But in the absence of ANY other hard data, it's what we have. You are happy enough to rely on the sales data as "scripture" up until a point; since all of your arguments suggest that the sales numbers were accurate until the time things went on backorder. Of course, that's not a very logical position to take- when the crux of your theory is that the numbers are unreliable.
It's pretty funny that you accuse me of treating the sales report as scripture, given that your faith-based arguments about 2008 numbers are more dogmatic than anything.
I'm not sure how seriously to take your statements at this point.
Either you really believe what you right -- in which case I think you've lost objectivity; or you are just trying to amuse with irrational statments to provoke a response.
Do you have that hankee ready to wipe the tears away from your eyes...
Get ready to eat some humble pie......
I think you must be kidding. Keep it up, it's funny stuff.
Sincerely, jm(w unc, w proof, buff, gold w unc) ski. >>
Ren(W)unc
Ren(W)unc
Oh! I get it!
NeoPlat Proof AKA "NeoW UNC Plat"
<< <i>
<< <i>Grades just in on my 3 pc. 1/2 oz. Proof Plats....I'm very pleased!!!
At this pont, only 20 PR70DCAM in Pops!!!
POPS- non first strike!!
POPS-First Strike- Same Exact Darn #'s as non f/s!!! >>
WOW! Congrats on the grades!!! When did you purchase these coins? Just curious, were these cherry picked for grading? >>
Thanks.....I ordered them on Dec 8th and rec'd on Dec. 16th.
That was when only the 1/2 oz's remained.
So, I scooped up 3 and sent them to PCGS, as they all looked like perfect coins.
Every now and then we get lucky!!!
GB
As I watch the continuing train wreck in the economy I think we should be prepared for some possible pain in next few months/years.
Like it or not we are not immune from the winds blowing through the economy.
Money spent on collectables is easily defered.
Precious metal prices still underpin a lot of the coin collecting world both directly and indirectly.
There is a strong push down in PM prices from general deflation and reduced industrial demand.
This is countered by increasing fears of inflation as federal reserve pumps more and more dollars into system.
Absolutely massive amounts of liquidity is being poured into system to fight the underlying trend.
Country after country are considering devaluation of their currencies in a 21st century version of protectionism.
Buckle your seat belts......turbulence ahead!
It's a shell game, played with smoke & mirrors. Don't be fooled.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Half -
You dont have an answer to that question, but you worry about it every day.
The coins dont exist, they never did. They were excess orders that were cancelled in early December.
>>
7/8 the mint is the one that determines mintages, not you or I. So when you say coins don't exist, you have no way of knowing how many were minted.
Did the mint take more orders than available coins? Yes.
But they do that with all the other bullion products.
That is not anything out of the ordinary, just look at how the proof gold eagle numbers have soared over the past four weeks. Are those wrong too?
It is easy to pick the coins you love and say that this time it is different but you have no way of knowing other than what you are guessing.
Since the numbers from the mint have stopping changing much it is normal to assume they have clarified the totals and this is close to the finals. I expect they may drop a little from here but as far as the 2008 w unc dropping over a thousand coins to go under the 2006 w unc I don't see it happening.
I also remember being told just after the 1/4 plats went dark that next week the numbers would drop. Then it was the week after, and the week after. Then it was the middle of January, and now the end of January.
Next month it will be the end of February. Then it will be 2010.
Meanwhile I am happy I bought the buffalo and plat proofs. LOL.
Crying in a hanky? Hardly.
*BINGO*
Same Guy, like I have been saying for over a year. ;>
Not to put words into 7over8's mouth...but I think his basic thrust is that based on unfulfilled orders from members on this board, as well as our knowledge from widespread contacts within the hobby...the Unc APE numbers will drop principally because there has yet to be a proper reconciliation between sales tallied vs orders already cancelled (and yet to be cancelled)...and those numbers will likely be significant. In fact, based on past Mint practices...isn't there already a precedent for this?!?
And to all the doubters out there, I say this...you have a right to believe that the currently known Unc sales numbers will eventually seemlessly translate into final mintage numbers...but why get all exercised when a counter opinion is offered? I too happen to believe that the final plat Unc mintage numbers are going to be lower than currently believed...but that doesn't mean that anyone holding Buffs or Plat Proofs needs to panic...because a decline in the Unc numbers won't translate into an increase in other areas.
Now if this is simply an exercise in pumping up the proofs or uncs as the new kings for short-term profits...or maintaining a prior year's issue as the reigning king...I can't speak to such gamesmanship. I'm just fortunate to own all of the coins in question...and don't plan to sell anything anytime soon...so this thread is all rather amusing.
<< <i>Not to put words into 7over8's mouth...but I think his basic thrust is that based on unfulfilled orders from members on this board, as well as our knowledge from widespread contacts within the hobby...the Unc APE numbers will drop principally because there has yet to be a proper reconciliation between sales tallied vs orders already cancelled (and yet to be cancelled)...and those numbers will likely be significant. In fact, based on past Mint practices...isn't there already a precedent for this?!?
And to all the doubters out there, I say this...you have a right to believe that the currently known Unc sales numbers will eventually seemlessly translate into final mintage numbers...but why get all exercised when a counter opinion is offered? I too happen to believe that the final plat Unc mintage numbers are going to be lower than currently believed...but that doesn't mean that anyone holding Buffs or Plat Proofs needs to panic...because a decline in the Unc numbers won't translate into an increase in other areas.
Now if this is simply an exercise in pumping up the proofs or uncs as the new kings for short-term profits...or maintaining a prior year's issue as the reigning king...I can't speak to such gamesmanship. I'm just fortunate to own all of the coins in question...and don't plan to sell anything anytime soon...so this thread is all rather amusing. >>
DITTO
As Big Daddy said in Cat on a Hot Tin Roof..."I can't stand no mendacity!"
<< <i>Grades just in on my 3 pc. 1/2 oz. Proof Plats....I'm very pleased!!!
At this pont, only 20 PR70DCAM in Pops!!!
POPS- non first strike!!
POPS-First Strike- Same Exact Darn #'s as non f/s!!! >>
nice grades goldbully!!! got 2 there now along with some other coins. hope two thirds of my order comes back 70
We all know you are the Buffalo Hunter in disguise, why try to prove otherwise....
after all, you are the one that tends to go away and sulk for long periods of time, not I
what happened after you made the wrong call on the 06w one oz coin, claiming that the USM was right with that sky high 1 oz figure when it was actually much lower.....?
you were proven WRONG and you went away for awhile.....
I guess you are now packing you bags again, ready to take the next train out of town.
But what did you do with all those Gold Haags?
The reported cancellations are from parties on and off the board where 80% of the total amount cancelled are parties known to me, they have no reason to not speak the truth.
We kept a close eye on delivered coins, with orders placed throughout the period, in increments, most cancelled but none delivered.
Seems like we have a better handle on this than you guys just shooting off you mouth?
<< <i>I recall our beloved Buffalo Hunter held strong to the Coinworld numbers on the 2006 W plats as gospel.
I wonder what happened to that guy? One day he was the number one authority on First Spouses (well, at least according to him) and the next day he was gone... >>
"Seven" disappeared as well, never to be heard from again when the plats went back on sale...
<< <i>
<< <i>I recall our beloved Buffalo Hunter held strong to the Coinworld numbers on the 2006 W plats as gospel.
I wonder what happened to that guy? One day he was the number one authority on First Spouses (well, at least according to him) and the next day he was gone... >>
"Seven" disappeared as well, never to be heard from again when the plats went back on sale... >>
Is he gone or just morphed? I wish he would come back but I guess he is quietly collecting the Spouse coins while the bashers (and mint pricing) keep the numbers low.
<< <i>Vic and the Hog -
The reported cancellations are from parties on and off the board where 80% of the total amount cancelled are parties known to me, they have no reason to not speak the truth.
We kept a close eye on delivered coins, with orders placed throughout the period, in increments, most cancelled but none delivered.
Seems like we have a better handle on this than you guys just shooting off you mouth? >>
How have I shot off my mouth? I stated the absolute truth that "until PROVEN otherwise" the 2006 W are kings.
Until you have proof, not speculation, the 2006 W's are kings. Right now the only PROOF there is is the documented numbers put out by the mint that state the 2008's are approximately 1000 mintage higher than the 2006's. Thats the information the general public uses in the secondary market. Thats the "handle" i have on it.
I do own quite a few by the way, but I wish I could trade them for Buffs. I could flip the buff's immediately and then pick up the plats CHEAP on the secondary mrket.
<< <i>My own theory is that Seven was a Cylon, and after being tossed out an airlock by the Crew of Battlestar Galactica (many of whom reside on this Board), he is being replicated at this very moment, just awaiting an opportunity to sneak back into our midst. Don't say I didn't warn you! >>
LOL (I loved that show as a kid, haven't thought about it in years. What's Boltar upto these days??).
Mean time I am going to start an inventory of my cache.
My plans are to leave various things to different friends or blood and want to have it done prior to the OBAMANATION.
Interesting word. Goes both ways.
I also have noticed a run on guns and ammo.
Am I wrong?
I don't talk about personal aspects of this subject for obvious reasons.
I do however have things that are mine and will not let any person, persons or government take them from me. (wife included)
Onward with the world and technology.
I just want to mention that if you are unfamiliar there is a technology called RFID.
Radio Frequency I dentification.
Just this morning I cut tags from my kids clothes that have those rfid tags in them.
It is used for inventory control.
But you are familiar with EZPASS RIGHT!! Thats RFID
Well RFID is creeping into many things.
I was thinking that the USM should use RFID in there packaging of their products.
Great way to control inventory.
I keep all packages but the coins are in the capsules they came in and transferred into my intercept shield boxes which are off site in multiple high security locations.
I figure not all in in basket as they say.
Call me paranoid. I don't care. I just want to know my s..t is safe.
How about you?
Can you shed any light on this topic?
Offer any ideas as to safeguarding our collections?
I plan one day to have another place. Then I can have it all with me. I will also see anyone coming for a great distance.
Cheers
"You are happy enough to rely on the sales data as "scripture" up until a point; since all of your arguments suggest that the sales numbers were accurate until the time things went on backorder. Of course, that's not a very logical position to take- when the crux of your theory is that the numbers are unreliable."
NYC- I dont think that 7/8 doubts that the Mint can count, just that they don't know when to STOP counting. As far as I can tell, he's stated all along that they just kept taking orders and tacking on numbers to the sales report for coins that they didnt have. This would of course have to happen at the END, now wouldn't it? I think the real debate is whether or not these late "orders" translated into "shipments." You know there are many with cancelled sets. You, yourself are waiting for an order that will never come.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
1) AGE 4 coin proof
1) AGE 4 coin Unc
1) 1/10 AGE proof
10) ASE
1) Buffalo Proof
2) Buffalo proof
Should I take the first two and see what I can sell unopened for?
I already have both sets as part of my 2006-2008 era of coins collection
<< <i>I hope the 2008's are the lowest mintage. I missed out on buying Platinum in 2006. I am not even sure what I own. I don't keep it at home and have to look through my ebay, paypal, usm, cc statements, checkbook, etc, to figure it all out.
Mean time I am going to start an inventory of my cache.
My plans are to leave various things to different friends or blood and want to have it done prior to the OBAMANATION.
Interesting word. Goes both ways.
I also have noticed a run on guns and ammo.
Am I wrong?
I don't talk about personal aspects of this subject for obvious reasons.
I do however have things that are mine and will not let any person, persons or government take them from me. (wife included)
Onward with the world and technology.
I just want to mention that if you are unfamiliar there is a technology called RFID.
Radio Frequency I dentification.
Just this morning I cut tags from my kids clothes that have those rfid tags in them.
It is used for inventory control.
But you are familiar with EZPASS RIGHT!! Thats RFID
Well RFID is creeping into many things.
I was thinking that the USM should use RFID in there packaging of their products.
Great way to control inventory.
I keep all packages but the coins are in the capsules they came in and transferred into my intercept shield boxes which are off site in multiple high security locations.
I figure not all in in basket as they say.
Call me paranoid. I don't care. I just want to know my s..t is safe.
How about you?
Can you shed any light on this topic?
Offer any ideas as to safeguarding our collections?
I plan one day to have another place. Then I can have it all with me. I will also see anyone coming for a great distance.
Cheers >>
Just remember even paranoid people have enemies!
The 1/10th is now bargain-priced at only $124.50...
<< <i>Just remember even paranoid people have enemies! >>
I hope all the 2008 eagles go dark soon.....so the aftermarket games can began.
True, I have an open backorder for 11 plat unc-w sets. Not really waiting for it though, just waiting for them to finally cancel it.
You're absolutely right about the real question-- whether or not the sales figures represent shipped orders. If sales numbers are only comprised of filled orders, the only revisions down would be for returns. If sales numbers include backorders /unfilled orders, the revisions down will be greater. For 2008ws to be lower than 2006, the total number of unaccounted for returns and backorders would need to be approximately 1,000 per denomination. That's just a little too many for a reasonable person to hope for.
I think it's misguided to think 2008 numbers NEED to drop under 2006 numbers to be good coins. As others have pointed out, the 2008-ws are doing okay with their "high" numbers of 3400-4600. Whatever the drop is from here, the 2008s are low enough to be compelling.
To the extent 7/8 generates responses, it's less about his theory and more about his delivery. He's as stubborn as any faith-based evangelical. The "crying in your hanky" taunts to those who don't adhere to those beliefs are silly, and the proclamation of 2008-ws as the new "kings" is not only premature, but likely to be wrong.
Real numbers will come out eventually, and regardless of where they end up, there's a lot to like about the 2008-w platinums. Low mintage coins with good designs at a small premium to melt.
As far as mintages the 2007s may have suffered some loss of numbers in 1st half of 2008.
I know I sold for scrap 15 each of the 1/2 and 1 oz coins.
I'm going to get a bunch of the 2006-2008s slabed reverse in front to highlight different designs.
I'm going to get a bunch of the 2006-2008s slabed reverse in front to highlight different designs.
I'm with you. I wish PCGS offered a multi-coin slab like NGC, I think it would be nice to have each of the 3 coins displayed together.
<< <i>I also love all 3 years of the APE uncirculateds.
As far as mintages the 2007s may have suffered some loss of numbers in 1st half of 2008.
I know I sold for scrap 15 each of the 1/2 and 1 oz coins.
I'm going to get a bunch of the 2006-2008s slabed reverse in front to highlight different designs. >>
PLEASE SND ME A COPY OF THE PHOTO FOR OUR NEW STUDY.
Were the 2008 w uncirculated platinum $100 sales numbers revised UP by 2 coins??
The Jan 11 numbers look like 1905
Jan 11 numbers
Jan 4 numbers were 1903
Jan 4 numbers
Were the 2008 w uncirculated platinum $100 sales numbers revised UP by 2 coins??
The Jan 11 numbers look like 1905
Jan 11 numbers
Jan 4 numbers were 1903
Jan 4 numbers
Yes. I saw that too...
<< <i>I also love all 3 years of the APE uncirculateds.
I'm going to get a bunch of the 2006-2008s slabed reverse in front to highlight different designs.
I'm with you. I wish PCGS offered a multi-coin slab like NGC, I think it would be nice to have each of the 3 coins displayed together. >>
Just send in a cracked out PCGS 69 from each year and have NGC put it in a multicoin slab and PRESTO, you have a perfect "70" 3 coin set in one holder!
It's magic....................
bumanchu
<< <i>
<< <i>Grades just in on my 3 pc. 1/2 oz. Proof Plats....I'm very pleased!!!
At this pont, only 20 PR70DCAM in Pops!!!
POPS- non first strike!!
POPS-First Strike- Same Exact Darn #'s as non f/s!!! >>
nice grades goldbully!!! got 2 there now along with some other coins. hope two thirds of my order comes back 70
coinman420, I hope you get lots of 70's!!!!
After viewing drei3ree's chart, my Proof 1/2 oz'rs are gonna be worth some$$$$$$ in the futrue.
<< <i>After viewing drei3ree's chart, my Proof 1/2 oz'rs are gonna be worth some$$$$$$ in the futrue.
Goldbully--I like the 2006 burnished $25 & $50, but the 2008 $50 proof is clearly the KING of the proofs! Get em while you can...in the summer of 2006, the 2004 $50 proof was selling for over $10,000 in PCGS 70dc.
See For Yourself
Well given that there are at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder, there will be 9/10's of the reduction you claim "can't happen".
Additionally, single coin options in some denominations have hundreds of reported pieces cancelled, puts you "over the top" of the number you believe - "can't happen"
I'm big enough to accept your witty apology for the comparisons to the Illinois Governor and the Evangelicals when we know the true numbers.
7/8
I too made some decent bucks in the 1oz Buff Unc, but am surprised that the coin has run its course for now, stagnating in the 1500-1600 range, if you can sell quantities.
I would never flip the plat uncs for buffs now.
IMO, those 08w plat uncs are gonna catch most by surprise. I wont repeat my reasoning. Most on this forum are tired of hearing it, but, they will be saddened more by ridding themselves of these coins before they met their true potential.
7/8
I believe when the Mint releases the actual 2008 w uncirculated Platinum mintage numbers, taking into consideration all of the verified cancelled orders and such......
the final tally will be negative numbers......and the coins you now have in your possession.........
WILL DISINTEGRATE!!!
<< <i>I believe when the Mint releases the actual 2008 w uncirculated Platinum mintage numbers, taking into consideration all of the verified cancelled orders and such......
the final tally will be negative numbers......and the coins you now have in your possession.........
WILL DISINTEGRATE!!!
Like your avatar?
We're talking PCGS and MS70 from PCGS here!!!!
eBay Link
Am I alone???
<< <i>
<< <i>I believe when the Mint releases the actual 2008 w uncirculated Platinum mintage numbers, taking into consideration all of the verified cancelled orders and such......
the final tally will be negative numbers......and the coins you now have in your possession.........
WILL DISINTEGRATE!!!
Like your avatar?
Worse than my avatar, which came in ancient Roman coin lot.
Once the mintage numbers are known, not the orders taken, you'll see a 180 degree turn on those auctions,
that may have those Buffs take a back seat to the prices that can be realized on a sub 06w unc plat.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Collectors not caring, flippers looking for new targets and trying to make some $$$ - I don't think these are going to have a sudden resurrection. >>
I do think these are a great long-term hold, but it'll be a long slow burn, like the proverbial lobster in the pot of boiling water. One thing that may help is that I don't see ANY '09 issues with any sex appeal. Sure, I'll covet my high relief, but it'll be a flipper's nightmare with the high mintages. That may force people into staying with the '08s in interest.
Well given that there are at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder, there will be 9/10's of the reduction you claim "can't happen".
Additionally, single coin options in some denominations have hundreds of reported pieces cancelled, puts you "over the top" of the number you believe - "can't happen"
I'm big enough to accept your witty apology for the comparisons to the Illinois Governor and the Evangelicals when we know the true numbers.
7/8
First, you place the words "can't happen" in quotation marks as if they are mine. They are not.
If you want to make up numbers and pretend they are real, that's one thing, but please don't make up quotes and attribute them to me.
Second, you say there are "at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder" and that "some denominations have hundreds of reported pieces cancelled."
Looking back at the sales numbers, as of November 9, there were 1257 sets sold (assuming those numbers were accurate).
As of November 16, there were 2165 sets sold. So it increased 908.
Sets went backorder on or about November 13. I know that because I placed an order that day. None of us know how many sets were sold from November 9 until November 13. You don't believe it could be as high as 908. However, I'm guessing you'll agree that SOME number of sets were sold from November 9 to November 13, and that (assuming sales numbers include backorders), the rest of that number is made up of a rush of sales after the sets went backorder. Either way, it's inaccurate to say there were at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder-- set backorders did not start on November 9.
As for "some denominations have hundreds of reported pieces cancelled" I don't know where you get that from. Given your fake attribution of quotes to me and your mischaracterization over 900 orders for sets taken since backorder, I hesistate to accept the accuracy of that statement.
I'm perfectly willing to accept the possibility-- even likelihood-- that the numbers for 2008 unc-ws will decrease from here. But there is a HUGE gulf right now between 2008 and 2006, and I've looked at all the sales numbers from the outset, and it seems very unlikely to me -- almost impossible--that 2008s will be lower than 2006.
Also, I don't understand your irrational insistence that this is required for 2008s to be good coins. They don't need to be lower than 2006; even with current numbers (which we ALL agree are likely to come down) they are good coins. You should just relax and wait for the numbers to come out.