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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    If these are the new keys, there wont be many to go around....

    The large dealers, as far as I can tell, arent really in this at this point....(just my observation)

    Once the numbers are known, just one TV show picks it up, and the qty is gone.........believe me, there will be buyers.

    And BTW, our MALL is HUMMING with activity - you could have fooled me that people are worried!!!!
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    I agree. These could very well be the new keys, but who will make the market for them when nobody is left with a job?

    I think these are great coins in the long run. In the short run, I agree... there are a lot of factors at play in the broader financial market, which have nothing to do with coin collecting, but will impact the market. If this proves to be a quick recession, no problem.

    If the broader financial market continues to decline, it might be awhile before anyone has free money to invest/speculate in coins. The stock market is down something like 40%, AIG has taken over $100 Billion in Govt money and is being sold in pieces, one of the biggest blue chips, GE, is at $16 with a dividend over 7%. GM started the year at around $30, is now at $3 and possibly going bankrupt. The financial environment should be considered by anyone making a significant purchase in anything right now- coins, art, real estate. That being said, presumably most of the people on this board are still buying coins for their collections and, in looking at the options available from the Mint, the platinum and gold buffalos seem like some of the best buys out there.
    Dan
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    except when you have some money preserved from your brokerage acct and dont want to go back to the market just yet

    PM's and rare coins do well when other paper investments dont

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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The 2008 UNC-W plats will be the lowest mintage W plats for the three year run.


    The $10 sales figures are 3,761. 2006-w $10 is 3,544. So it would seem 2006 holds on for the $10s.

    The $25 1/4 oz unc plat sales figure has been severely distorted - has to be problems with order taking in excess of available stock.

    As EricJ and others have stated "the USM has NEVER produced a 1/4 oz unc plat in single issue format in excess of 1250 coins". 2007-W unc 1/4 oz = 1228 coins single issue. 2006-w 1/4 oz = ~650 coins single issue.

    Sit back and think a while about it.



    The argument makes sense to a point, but historically the $25s have always outsold the $50s.

    So logically, it would be surprising to see the $25 individual numbers be lower than the $50s.

    Right now, $50 sales are at 849 and they are still available. 2008 sets went backorder - I believe- after the last sales figures were provided.

    Assuming we aren't questioning the sales numbers for the $50s or sets, those are at 2,106 right now (840+1257).

    2006-w numbers on $50s were 2,577, and on $25s are 2,676.

    So $50s are about 500 coins away right now. Depending on what the final set figures are at, and when sellout for the individual $50s happens, it will certainly be close. If sets jump to 1500 and $50s close out at 1,000, 2008 wins. If $50s go to 1250, 2006 wins.

    We're in a situation where it's too close to predict. Either way, people with 2008s should be very happy. >>



    It's amazing to me how far the 06 Ws have come down from thier peak given the very low mintages. I wonder how well any of these will do in the long run (given the $ I have in them, I hope very well, but the 06 W prices are a bit depressing).
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I agree. These could very well be the new keys, but who will make the market for them when nobody is left with a job?

    I think these are great coins in the long run. In the short run, I agree... there are a lot of factors at play in the broader financial market, which have nothing to do with coin collecting, but will impact the market. If this proves to be a quick recession, no problem.

    If the broader financial market continues to decline, it might be awhile before anyone has free money to invest/speculate in coins. The stock market is down something like 40%, AIG has taken over $100 Billion in Govt money and is being sold in pieces, one of the biggest blue chips, GE, is at $16 with a dividend over 7%. GM started the year at around $30, is now at $3 and possibly going bankrupt. The financial environment should be considered by anyone making a significant purchase in anything right now- coins, art, real estate. That being said, presumably most of the people on this board are still buying coins for their collections and, in looking at the options available from the Mint, the platinum and gold buffalos seem like some of the best buys out there. >>



    So true so true!! There are many good years in the future to increase the collector base, and no years left to produce 08 coins.

    By the way what do you think the cheapest possible price needed to purchase a 4-coin set of the 06 coins?


    Also, the backorder date has been moved back to 12/1/08 for the set of uncs.
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    GATGAT Posts: 3,146
    The 4 coin unc sets are gone. A few people will get returned picked over sets.
    USAF vet 1951-59
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    4 coin sets are gone.....POOF.....

    at 1250.
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    renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    GAT, 7/8
    How and where do you see this? And the number of 1250? The mint site shows 12/1/08 available for shipping.

    Ren
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    coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭


    << <i>GAT, 7/8
    How and where do you see this? And the number of 1250? The mint site shows 12/1/08 available for shipping.

    Ren >>



    Apparently when then mint starts "backordering" you are actually just being put on a list that can be filled with return items. This is our understanding anyway just based on how it appears.
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    bumanchubumanchu Posts: 1,383 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>GAT, 7/8
    How and where do you see this? And the number of 1250? The mint site shows 12/1/08 available for shipping.

    Ren >>



    Apparently when then mint starts "backordering" you are actually just being put on a list that can be filled with return items. This is our understanding anyway just based on how it appears. >>



    I remember in '06 placing some late orders for $50's and the Mint just kept moving the backorder date further and further out and I never received any coins from those orders.

    .....for what it is worth.
    And I ain't lying this time.
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Once you go on 2 week backorder, that is it,

    The 4 cn set went backorder with sales at 1257.
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    HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    It seems like the mint is starting to get bogged down in early Christmas orders combined with the Last Chance sale plus bullion speculator orders so they may just be filling orders much slower now due to higher volume. image
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    WHAT ABOUT THE 2008 Plat Proofs???

    With all the talk about the Plat. UNC Ws, what do you all think about the prospects for the '08 plat proofs? Especially, the chance that they have a lower mintage than the '04s and be the new, and for the fractionals as least, permanent kings?
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    I like in order of preference the following:

    Gold Buffaloes Proof - 4 coin set
    Gold Buffaloes UNC - 4 coin set
    APE Proof - 4 coin set
    APE UNC - 4 coin set

    Try to buy some of each and be prepared to hold for 2-3 years. You will do well.
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    With all the talk about the Plat. UNC Ws, what do you all think about the prospects for the '08 plat proofs? Especially, the chance that they have a lower mintage than the '04s and be the new, and for the fractionals as least, permanent kings?

    For the platinum proofs, I think 2008 has a good chance at knocking 2004 off the throne.

    Dan
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    ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>With all the talk about the Plat. UNC Ws, what do you all think about the prospects for the '08 plat proofs? Especially, the chance that they have a lower mintage than the '04s and be the new, and for the fractionals as least, permanent kings?

    For the platinum proofs, I think 2008 has a good chance at knocking 2004 off the throne. >>



    It's really to early to call this one since we don't know how many coins were made. The proofs will stay on sale until June 09 or until they start to sell out and from the figures it seems everyone is buying the UNC W's presently. The proofs alway have more produced so I'd watch this one for awhile. If there appears to be low mintages as the time to remove them from the mints website nears you know there will be a run. Really the best way to tell is when one goes black that will give you an idea of the amount of coins made in each of the other sizes. As a collector it's no big deal for me but if I were trying to score I'd wait and watch very carefully. JMO
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    << <i>

    << <i>With all the talk about the Plat. UNC Ws, what do you all think about the prospects for the '08 plat proofs? Especially, the chance that they have a lower mintage than the '04s and be the new, and for the fractionals as least, permanent kings?

    For the platinum proofs, I think 2008 has a good chance at knocking 2004 off the throne. >>



    It's really to early to call this one since we don't know how many coins were made. The proofs will stay on sale until June 09 or until they start to sell out and from the figures it seems everyone is buying the UNC W's presently. The proofs alway have more produced so I'd watch this one for awhile. If there appears to be low mintages as the time to remove them from the mints website nears you know there will be a run. Really the best way to tell is when one goes black that will give you an idea of the amount of coins made in each of the other sizes. As a collector it's no big deal for me but if I were trying to score I'd wait and watch very carefully. JMO >>




    Well said...the proofs probably had a full run production...the 1/10 shows no signs of selling out. If you are buying out of speculation...do not waste your money, because you may be left holding a big bag of poop. If you are a collector and love the coins...plan on keeping them until old age...go for it. image
    Platinum Is Best
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    coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭
    If the Proofs don't sell well from now til June then they could be spectacular, since many could be melted. If the mintage turns out to be less

    than the 04 that they will be a big hit, if not, then they will probably be relegated to just a very beautiful set of platinum bullion (slight

    exaggeration). JMHO.
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    OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,964 ✭✭✭✭✭
    the proofs probably had a full run production...the 1/10 shows no signs of selling out.

    One potential *indirect* sign of a low mintage on the 1/10 ounce platinum proofs is the steep $50 rise per coin in the Mint's selling price - was $149.95, now $199.95. The 1/4 ounce proof went up by only $10, and the two larger denominations actually had their prices reduced. I don't see any reason why they would raise 1/10 ounce prices to that extent if they still had a large amount in inventory left to sell.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>With all the talk about the Plat. UNC Ws, what do you all think about the prospects for the '08 plat proofs? Especially, the chance that they have a lower mintage than the '04s and be the new, and for the fractionals as least, permanent kings?

    For the platinum proofs, I think 2008 has a good chance at knocking 2004 off the throne. >>



    It's really to early to call this one since we don't know how many coins were made. The proofs will stay on sale until June 09 or until they start to sell out and from the figures it seems everyone is buying the UNC W's presently. The proofs alway have more produced so I'd watch this one for awhile. If there appears to be low mintages as the time to remove them from the mints website nears you know there will be a run. Really the best way to tell is when one goes black that will give you an idea of the amount of coins made in each of the other sizes. As a collector it's no big deal for me but if I were trying to score I'd wait and watch very carefully. JMO >>




    Well said...the proofs probably had a full run production...the 1/10 shows no signs of selling out. If you are buying out of speculation...do not waste your money, because you may be left holding a big bag of poop. If you are a collector and love the coins...plan on keeping them until old age...go for it. image >>



    How many are a "full production run"? Thanks.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>WIf you are buying out of speculation...do not waste your money, because you may be left holding a big bag of poop. If you are a collector and love the coins...plan on keeping them until old age...go for it. image >>


    >>



    How much is a big bag of poop?
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    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>WIf you are buying out of speculation...do not waste your money, because you may be left holding a big bag of poop. If you are a collector and love the coins...plan on keeping them until old age...go for it. image >>


    >>



    How much is a big bag of poop? >>



    How much money you got in the proofs? image

    Well a full production run would be for example:

    "This product is limited to 6,000 units. The mintage limit for the American Eagle Platinum Proof One Ounce Coin across all product options is 16,000."
    Platinum Is Best
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    ebizgobroebizgobro Posts: 595 ✭✭✭
    Were the 2008-W plat 4 coin sets sold out before the last repricing?

    I re-read some of the postings about the set going to backorder before the shutdown for repricing.
    Even though orders were accepted after the re-pricing, the set quickly went to backorder with the shipping date increasingly moved outward.

    Has anyone who ordered the set after the re-pricing ($2,089.95) received their set yet or received a shipping notice?
    Unfortunately, I placed my order after it went backordered and am wondering if my order will be filled.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Were the 2008-W plat 4 coin sets sold out before the last repricing?

    I re-read some of the postings about the set going to backorder before the shutdown for repricing.
    Even though orders were accepted after the re-pricing, the set quickly went to backorder with the shipping date increasingly moved outward.

    Has anyone who ordered the set after the re-pricing ($2,089.95) received their set yet or received a shipping notice?
    Unfortunately, I placed my order after it went backordered and am wondering if my order will be filled. >>



    I ordered three 4 coin sets in three separate orders after the repricing. All three orders say "in stock and reserved"
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Here is something I don't think has been brought up before, but if you read the press release from the mint it says this:

    "Trimming the 2009 portfolio will afford the United States Mint the opportunity to focus resources on its core products. It will spotlight offerings with broad appeal, such as its annual United States Mint Proof Sets. With fewer products to manufacture, the United States Mint will be able to offer proof sets and other products earlier in the calendar year beginning in 2010, making them available for customers to purchase for more occasions. The United States Mint relied principally on the number of units sold in determining which products or product lines have been most popular with collectors and other customers. More than 550 individual coin and medal products were evaluated; nearly 200 of those coin and medal products will remain in the new portfolio.

    The United States Mint will analyze its products each year to ensure the best portfolio is maintained."


    Now this to me does not sound like a definitive statement on ending these series permanently, it almost leaves the door open for them to resume these fractional coins at a later time. It would have been nice to have them say what is ending, what is suspended, and what can be reevaluated.

    I am pretty sure that the legislation allows them to resume these series at a later time as this stoppage for next year was not legislated.

    So if they resumed the coins again it would change most of what we have discussed, as it leaves open the chance of increasing supply of coins.
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Half -

    The backorder condition on the 1/4 oz unc began on Tues Oct 21 around 5pm, well before any LAST CHANCE cr&p sale or Christmas Rush.

    The coin has been in backorder pushed out two weeks from current date since then. It is now Not Available.

    ~1500 orders taken after backorder, not one substantial order delivered.

    IMO, 1000 pieces, thats it.

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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    I'm worried about the 08w plat proofs, I dont see them de-throwning the 04's.......the 04's were super low.

    IMO, the unc-w's are the better play.
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    ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm worried about the 08w plat proofs, I dont see them de-throwning the 04's.......the 04's were super low.

    IMO, the unc-w's are the better play. >>



    True but the proof are "more widly collected". That could change and the UNC's take off but so far it's key coin chasing only on the 2006 W's. As with any series there has to be a collector base and while small for the proof it's almost non-existant for the UNC's. So far it's spectulators and some of the cross over proof collectors. But hey I think this is a great series (both) and it wouldn't take a huge percentage of coin collectors to make the series hot. I really don't buy it's too expensive for the coin collector after all a few thousand dollars for a serious collector isn't that big a hill to climb and the smaller sizes can be had for a few hundred dollars in most cases.

    I like the balance of this series. They have low mintage but no so low that they can't be promoted in the future as a series. That's a good mix IMO.
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    hi some body know the ### for the unc especiality on the $50
    I look for buy one 2006 w ms70 pcgs 50 dollar first strike
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    PlacidPlacid Posts: 11,301 ✭✭✭


    << <i>hi some body know the ### for the unc especiality on the $50 >>



    I guess you want 2008?

    393108 2008 $50
    393109 2008 $50 first strike
    393082 2008-W $50
    393083 2008-W $50 first strike
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    2008 UNC-W Plat Sets are now gone....." PRODUCT IS NOT AVAILABLE " and it is also listed on the No Longer Available List! image

    Proofs will come in higher than 2004 because everyone is going to flock to them thinking they will come in lower. It is obvious they did a full run on those coins...if your a collector then buy yourself a PR70 coin or set and be done with it....otherwise....stay clear.
    Platinum Is Best
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    yes I want 2008 w unc. Platinum
    I look for buy one 2006 w ms70 pcgs 50 dollar first strike
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    Type2Type2 Posts: 13,985 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>2008 UNC-W Plat Sets are now gone....." PRODUCT IS NOT AVAILABLE " and it is also listed on the No Longer Available List! image

    Proofs will come in higher than 2004 because everyone is going to flock to them thinking they will come in lower. It is obvious they did a full run on those coins...if your a collector then buy yourself a PR70 coin or set and be done with it....otherwise....stay clear. >>

    Cool.image


    Hoard the keys.
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    piq

    the $50 unc is produced in generally the same number a the $25.

    if the $50 comes in lower, I doubt it will be more than 100 coins less.

    IMO, production of these was 1000 coins in single issue format. + 1250 sets. = 2250 or less.

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    youniqueyounique Posts: 882 ✭✭✭
    Plat unc 4 coin set sold out at US Mint. Looks like 1250 may be accurate.
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    thanks my friend image
    I look for buy one 2006 w ms70 pcgs 50 dollar first strike
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    thanks my friend image
    I look for buy one 2006 w ms70 pcgs 50 dollar first strike
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    CasmanCasman Posts: 3,935 ✭✭
    You can still get the Unc. W 1/4's on ebay for about $290, after cashback...wonder how long that will last...image
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    coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭


    << <i>2008 UNC-W Plat Sets are now gone....." PRODUCT IS NOT AVAILABLE " and it is also listed on the No Longer Available List! image

    Proofs will come in higher than 2004 because everyone is going to flock to them thinking they will come in lower. It is obvious they did a full run on those coins...if your a collector then buy yourself a PR70 coin or set and be done with it....otherwise....stay clear. >>



    You might think so but I doubt it. It looks like platinum coins are not what everyone is concerned with right now and the Proof may turn out to

    be big winners. But we will have to wait a few more months to find out (June). For example it is well known now that the uncs could be the

    best deal we ever got from the US mint (in my lifetime anyway) and that no more will be produced this year. But still the 1oz and 1/2oz are

    available.
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    Since the Buffalo Gold fractionals are only a one year series it will be absolutely MANDATORY for anyone who collects the Buffalo 1 oz Proofs to also have a set of fractionals!

    Gold Buffalo Proofs are looking better and better to me.
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    << <i>piq

    the $50 unc is produced in generally the same number a the $25.

    if the $50 comes in lower, I doubt it will be more than 100 coins less.

    IMO, production of these was 1000 coins in single issue format. + 1250 sets. = 2250 or less. >>




    We can only hope...hopefully you are right.image
    Platinum Is Best
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    everyone has an opinion on this forum, I am no different,

    I think these UNC-w's are winners. the sales reports seem to have excess orders taken/included - cant be sure, we dont know what the mint considers a "sale" - we have some idea though - about 1500 orders for 1/4 oz coins not charged and not delivered are in their sales report!
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    weekly sales report 1116/2008
    Unc-w plats
    $100...669
    $50...1061
    $25...2115
    $10...2504
    4 set 2165

    Proof plats
    $100...1865
    $50...927
    $25...1157
    $10...2528
    4 set 1187

    Unc gold"w"
    3056
    1299
    1682
    6380
    1559
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    2 questions........

    It is hard to believe there are more Unc platinum 2008-W sold than 2008-W Unc gold buffs

    Are numbers accurate??

    How do these compare to 2006-W??
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    coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭


    << <i>weekly sales report 1116/2008
    Unc-w plats
    $100...669
    $50...1061
    $25...2115
    $10...2504
    4 set 2165

    Proof plats
    $100...1865
    $50...927
    $25...1157
    $10...2528
    4 set 1187

    Unc gold"w"
    3056
    1299
    1682
    6380
    1559 >>




    over 900 4--coin sets of plat uncs sold in the last week seems highly suspect?
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    OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,964 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm wondering about the sales figures on the two plats that are still available, $50 and $100. Do they possibly include returns also?

    If so, it's possible that some of these coins have been shipped more than once and the net coins sold are less than the published figures.


    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    thanks eric for the post

    as many of you are aware, we look to the sales reports for indications of where mintages might end up (even though we really do not know what constitutes a sale for the USM - order taken?, inventory available?, cc authorized but not charged?)

    this year is no different, but the sales report this year is acting highly unusual.

    in previous years, if we were to get a "sales" number at the time an item went "backorder" status (the dreaded two week death knell) that was a good indication of the number available for sale......orders might then be taken to exceed the product available, so as to ensure any returns, order problems, etc are met with an order waiting in the wings.

    take a look at this year for three products in the unc-w series that we have numbers for at time of backorder

    1/10 oz - 2046
    1/4 oz - 615
    4 cn set - 1257

    I agree the 1/4 oz number is quite possibly 1 day earlier than the backorder date/time, quite possibly adding a couple hundred coins to sales.

    but why have the sales reports tacked on the following after backorder status:??

    1/10 oz +500
    1/4 oz +1300-1500
    4 cn sets +900

    ALL HIGHLY SUSPECT in my opinion.
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    Well if Eric can get the numbers on a Sunday before anyone gets the NN paper on Thursday than I would have to ask that "source" that EXACT same question..."why have the sales reports tacked on the following after backorder status:??"

    1/10 oz +500
    1/4 oz +1300-1500
    4 cn sets +900


    If the source can not answer that, than I would not believe the numbers I was given.

    Also am I really to believe that the proof numbers fell approx 300 coins in all denominations? BS

    Something smells very fishy here and it stinks more and more with each passing day!
    image
    Platinum Is Best
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    Guys it might be time to start thinking about returning any extra coins you purchased before your 30 day window runs out. The big winners in Vegas are the very intelligent ones that count cards...of course there are a few that get lucky but that is rare.
    Platinum Is Best
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    << <i>Guys it might be time to start thinking about returning any extra coins you purchased before your 30 day window runs out. The big winners in Vegas are the very intelligent ones that count cards...of course there are a few that get lucky but that is rare. >>




    There will be some killer rarities this year, that is one thing I am certain of. However will it be in the AGEs, APEs, or the Buffs? Will it be Proofs or UNCs?

    I think that these numbers are being messed with to disguise the facts from us much like the Govt is messing with the stock and precious metals market.

    BUY SOME OF EACH IF YOU CAN!

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