<< <i>The 4 coins sets went backorder before the repricing, they must have made less than 1500 sets. >>
Half strike, I think you are correct. The 4 coin set looks like it went down prior to the repricing hold. I think we may in fact be seeing confirmation that the 4 coin "w" set was short struck. I do not think the 2500 quarter # is anything close to correct. Go look at every single issue sales platinum eagle sold directly to the public and see how many times they sold over 2000 coins since 2003.........ZERO. How many times have they struck more quarters than tenths since 1997........zero. How much faith do I have that over "w" 1250 plat quarters were struck...............zero.
How the quarters will play out is not certain but if this 4 coin set was short stuck and they do not come back up.....in general we can say:
WELCOME TO THE NEW KINGS RIGHT BEFORE THE FRACTIONAL SERIES ALL CRASH INTO THE HISTORY BOOKS IN 2009!
The 4 coin set looks like it went down prior to the repricing hold.
? what repricing hold? I'm completely confused now.
I just checked the website, everything is showing as "Product is not available"
Is the theory that the Mint is repricing down again? I read the press releases, and my interpretation was that the discontinuance of these lines was different from the clearance sale. Maybe I was wrong?
Dan, the 4 coin "w" set went backorder right before the mint took all the plats down for repricing. They went back order around 1250-1300 sets. The half and $100 are still in stock but have been taken down until later this week.
Eric J
We do not know the 4 coin set is down for good but it looks like they are at or near the end based on the way the system behaved.
The mint are repricing for this weekend, they pulled everything except for the silver UNC eagle and will drop prices. By next weekend we should have a sellout in all 1/10, 1/4 and most 1/2 coins if not everything including 4 coin sets for remaining bullion gold and platinum.
I have to say I was one that didn't think it would happen however now that it is we will know shortly what the final sales numbers are so that is good. These coins could go up in price sooner than if if they stayed up for sale for the next 3 to 4 months. With the economy tanking everyday though I am not so sure if we do get much higher prices for some time until 2010 perhaps. Things are bleak right now with all prices falling unfortunately.
<< <i>If the repricing is significant I will order what I have now within reason at a lower price send back my overpriced relics.
Ren >>
If the mint sets themselves up for a massive turnover of returned product like this they are idiots! Therefore this is precisely what I think they will do!
i think the only ones that can return orders made after today are damaged in shipment, so at least for the sale it sounds like no returns. Of coarse that doesn't apply to those that purchased before today IMO.
If the mint sets themselves up for a massive turnover of returned product like this they are idiots! Therefore this is precisely what I think they will do!
Logically speaking, there's almost no chance that all the existing stock of the "no longer available" coins sold out simultaneously.
The more likely scenario is a temporary halt of sales, done in the most awkward way possible as only the Mint can-- halt sales without any announcement, using the "no longer available" description.
The reason for the temporary halt of sales is unknown, but given that the Dolley Madison First Spouse Gold remain available, while others were halted, and given the announced that most of the other bullion series they closed are on the discontinued list, and given the close of the American Eagle Gold proofs -- a series that is NOT on the discontinued list-- the most logical conclusion seems to be a repricing.
When these will go back on sale is anyone's guess. Based on past repricing, they could be dark for 30+ days to allow open return windows to expire before being offered again. It's also possible that the Mint has thrown the rulebook out, and is going to do a quick and dirty repricing timed to start with the announced clearance sale. Hopefully we'll all be better informed by Saturday.
<< <i>Logically speaking, there's almost no chance that all the existing stock of the "no longer available" coins sold out simultaneously.
The more likely scenario is a temporary halt of sales, done in the most awkward way possible as only the Mint can-- halt sales without any announcement, using the "no longer available" description.
The reason for the temporary halt of sales is unknown, but given that the Dolley Madison First Spouse Gold remain available, while others were halted, and given the announced that most of the other bullion series they closed are on the discontinued list, and given the close of the American Eagle Gold proofs -- a series that is NOT on the discontinued list-- the most logical conclusion seems to be a repricing.
When these will go back on sale is anyone's guess. Based on past repricing, they could be dark for 30+ days to allow open return windows to expire before being offered again. It's also possible that the Mint has thrown the rulebook out, and is going to do a quick and dirty repricing timed to start with the announced clearance sale. Hopefully we'll all be better informed by Saturday. >>
Repricing in less than a week? That is almost like breaking the speed of light.
Why would they reprice the 4 coin unc platinum set that went on backorder status today? A more likely scenario is they intend to close down the return window as others have suggested.
One thing I noticed is that a lot of other "sale" items, like coin covers, coin and die sets, etc. are still up for sale. These are the items the mint said would be part of the "sale" come Saturday, non?
<< <i>One thing I noticed is that a lot of other "sale" items, like coin covers, coin and die sets, etc. are still up for sale. These are the items the mint said would be part of the "sale" come Saturday, non? >>
This lends one to believe that they are pulling the old 30 day reprice trick again.
I think we should be looking for the ~500 late orders (after sellout) on the $10's where 400 were just cancelled.
That leaves us with ~100 excess orders, but I will live with a final mintage of 2100 - seems reasonable.
Additionally, the 400 increase in 1/4's brings us to the "suspect 1500" excess orders taken after going black - in week 2.
Needless to say that those 1500 orders have not been filled and never will be filled. The only b/o's being filled are the one off's with recent returns.
The 1/4 at a falsely reported 2500~ (I have to go all out and say this is a joke-NEVER, NEVER have they sold more than 1250 single issue)
MY opinion is the final numbers will look like this
1 oz 1250 1/2 oz 1000 1/4 oz 1000 1/10 oz 2100 Sets 1250 >>
That would be historic! And one really, really, cool 3 year commemorative set. Regardless of the mints intent you have to consider these commemorative coins, would you not?
"just got of the phone with the mint and supposedly the plan now is at noon friday the plat Unc 1/2oz goes for 569, the 1/2oz Unc AGE goes for 509, and the proof 1/2oz gold first spouses go for $549. that's friday 11/14 at noon."
"just got of the phone with the mint and supposedly the plan now is at noon friday the plat Unc 1/2oz goes for 569, the 1/2oz Unc AGE goes for 509, and the proof 1/2oz gold first spouses go for $549. that's friday 11/14 at noon."
Guys its been a while since I commented at length on the modern coinage markets. We are seeing in our life time one of the most important sea changes since FDR signed the gold ban into law in 1933. There is a great deal of confusion and emotion in our current markets and I think it will help to keep a few important points in mind:
1) The mint is killing most of its small and affordable small denomination coin series struck on the precious metals as of next year. We are not going to have to wonder very much about which coin will end up the key date of the series that are ending. The kings are kings and they will stay that way forever at least according to the Red Book listing anyway. Those that chose to collect the closed series(classic guys like to call closed series legacy sets) will not have to face a seemingly endless financial obligation every year that fluctuates with the metals market. When people are spending their money they like some degree of certainty and that's one comforting aspect about classic that the moderns collectors have been denied over the last 22 years. This is about to change!
2) From 1900-2000 coinage prices especially for key dates exploded in real terms and most of the respected coin historians attribute this to the growth in real net disposable income in the US. As has been stated before the majority of series total set values are contained in the leading three key dates. Over the last 100 years if you bought just the keys and let the rest of the coins go you would have the best appreciation rate possible especially if the keys are purchased prior to series maturity in the highest grades they could be found. This is a important aspect of what we do and historically with few exceptions its the only aspect worthy of note if you are talking about coinage pricing structures.
There are three important periods where the key dates advantages fell apart. The first is the great depression. Disposable income almost completely collapsed and Roosevelt in an attempt to increase the money supply drastically increased the official price of gold to $35 an oz. The public could not afford to collect coins in general and the common dates were dumped for face or melted and sold for the going price of gold. The only thing that drives key date values is the incomplete common date sets that need them. The fate of the common dates dictated the pricing fate of the keys and in 1933 that was not a pretty picture. As the thirties proved face and bullion are the ultimate pricing floors for coins and the cheap common dates bought near intrinsic value performed better than the keys. In time disposable income bounced back and the metal content was not an issue so the keys bounced back with a vengeance.
During the great silver boom of the late 70s-80 the Hunts dove the price of silver to almost $50 per oz. Washington quarter, mercury dime etc sets were taken into coin and bullion dealers. The 1932 D & S quarters were popped out and kept as were the 1916 D and 1921 D dimes. Everything else went into the junk bag of melting pot. Again the common dates moved up sharply but the keys were flat to down because they at least for a while had no home. Again the metals prices relaxed and good times returned.
Most of you that have been watching this board for the last 4 years can write this paragraph. Platinum in particular has seen a run from $700 an oz to $2300 in the last four years. Key date platinum eagles like the 2004 seated America half went from being a $685 coin to a $2400 by 2006. Over the last year and a half as the price of platinum exploded and the economy came under hardship the common date platinum eagle halves were sold off for melt to guys like Kitco & Silver town etc. From 2006 to the spring of 2008 the price of common dates doubled but the key date proof platinum halves were flat to down. Collectors were less able to afford the sets both due to less disposable income and higher common date prices so the key dates did not have common date sets to drive them and prices fell.
My point is this. Most of the time in the last 100 years if you just bought the key dates and not the sets you were in good shape. High grade key date collectors made a killing and enjoyed the best material. We each need to decide for ourselves where we think collecting, long term disposable income and metals prices are going from now on. I have been asked many times why bother to collect by set? The answer is multifaceted. The first reason is condition rarity. The lowest mintage coin may not be the rarest in high grade. Second is survival rate. A common date may become a dark horse key date if they are not saved. The last and maybe the most important is demand curve diversification. If disposable income improves again or capital preservation considerations issues increase collector demand the keys are in the set and will carry the day even if the metals are flat to down. If materials spike hard and drive all the keys underwater the total set value growth will carry the day. ALL coins face and metal value are their ultimate price floor and we will do well to keep this in mind.
Lets take a walk through some series:
*Buffalo Gold Proofs Fractionals and the behavior of popular one year type coins and commemoratives:
Do you guys remember this post from 2007.................................
"The problem with endless streams of coins without unifying design elements is the value of the coins to a large extent is not based primarily on mintage but by design appeal. Lets look at some examples of this:
This is the danger we face. When a group of coins has a significant percentage of its members with completely different designs without some clearly unifying design element the series will be collected by design type. Dates and mint marks count for very little if anything. That’s the problem with the Arkansas halves. They are a 15 coin series with rare keys but it does not matter. They are a 85,000 total mintage type coin and the market prices them as such. You do not want a series you collect to get caught in this scenario."
Notice the Buffalo Dollar is dirt common....one of the most common of all silver dollar commems but it does not matter. Its a one year type coin that's got unreal market appeal. I don't understand it and frankly don't even like its looks but the public loves it. When the one once Buffalo gold first came out a couple years ago the demand was so great that even with sky high production rates coming out of the Mint the coins just could not be kept on the shelves. Finally the total population got so huge that the coins premium vanished and melt was its destiny . Now we know that up to this year there have been no fractional mint state or proof Buffalo gold coins at all. After this year all the fractional Buffalos will be gone. That makes all the proof fractionals a one year type coin with a mintage of less than 25,000 coins. How long it will take the fractional proof buffalo gold to mature is any ones guess and much of that lies with the economy but I suggest if you want one and can afford one go buy it.
*2008-W Buffalo Gold mint state: The 2008-W $5 &10 fractionals have a total mintage of about 15,000-25,000 coins. Just like the proofs the popularity of the buffalo design has a good chance of absorbing the relatively small type coin mintage and driving the price to well above double issue price. Those numbers are also a very deep key if the buffalo fractionals are ever a bullion run and the series does not go to changing designs.
The 2008-w buff half is in trouble because its issued in four coin sets, single issue and the 8-8-8 sets thus the mintage is going to higher and its got the further handicap of being expensive.
The Mint has told us that the $50 gold buffalo that is struck in high quantities for bullion is going to survive next years purge. Lets assume this is correct.
2006 $50 mint state finish buffalo......323,000 coins----struck for bullion 2007 $50 mint state finish buffalo......167,000 coins----struck for bullion 2008 $50 mint state finish buffalo......200,000* coins----struck for bullion 2008-W $50 mint state finish buffalo....25,000* coins----struck for collectors 2009 $50 mint state finish buffalo......175,000* coins----struck for bullion 2010 $50 mint state finish buffalo......
Do you guys see it? We are looking at a multi year run thats going to have huge total series pops and in the midst of it all is going to be a small number of "2008-w" key dates. The only thing that might hurt the $50 2008-w is if the series one day goes to changing reverse it could become a high total pop type coin.
Most of the time when you buy a 4 coin set to get the fractionals the big coin is dead weight. This time its not clear to me that the big coin is dead weight at all. It may carry its weight just fine then some. What most do not grasp is the 2008-w $50 mint state buffalo may be its series 1995 -W silver eagle.
*Mint State Fractional Gold eagles with the Saint obverse: Look at the mintage of the 1999-w, 2006-w, 2007-w and 2008-w gold eagles. The four "w" coins rule these sets and the common ones are twice as rare as 1950 proof Franklin halves! There are only going to be about 3,000 to 6,000 complete date and mint mark sets of these little coins in MS-69. Tight enough to be valuable but still achievable on a budget. As far as I am aware no new 1999-w rolls have been found for the $5 or $10 denomination in the last 2 years.
If you think collecting by date and mint make will endure as a principle collecting structure for gold coinage then the complete fractional gold eagle sets are attractive.
*First Spouse Gold:
*Silver Commems:
*Gold Commems:
*Proof Platinum Egles:
*Uncirculated Platinum Eagles:
*Dangers and Opportunities Associated with design based collecting:
*Design Based Rarity of Moderns.....tomorrows super sets
*Recent Dividing of Collector Demand
Will finish the above mentioned topics later.........and transfer it all to the first page.
So in summary how are 2008 Proof and Uncirculated Platinums looking compared to 2006 and 2007??
I think now that the program is being discontinued, the year by year comparison is not as important. We're now at a closed series where virtually all the coins will have mintages under 5,000; lower than the Jackie Robinson $5 gold (the exception being the 2007 unc w $10, at 5,992 or so).
These numbers are discussed throughout our postings, but it's my opinion that they won't become "real" to the collectors who don't follow platinums until they're finalized and are printed up in the reference books. It's my belief that once that happens, these will finally start to be recognized for what they are - amazing coins that either escaped the attention of, or were shrugged off by most collectors at the outset, cementing their place in the history books as modern low mintage kings.
Let's just say that I "just happen" to be sitting in front of my computer at around 12:01 tomrrow morning with a decent amount of cash burning a hole in my pocket...and although I already own multiples of the 2008 UNCs plats as well as a proof 1/4 and 1/2 plat...not to mention 4-coin proof and UNC buffalo sets...
From a strict potential rarity buy and hold point of view, what would I want to double or triple up on...more of the buffalo proof or unc fractionals? Some frac Eagles? More plat?!? Very confused....HELP!
I have read and have to compliments posts on this thread by Ericj, Nycounsel, 7over8, and others. These posts have been very informative about the possible scarcities in the gold and platinum market.
Based upon my reading and understanding, here's my shopping list in order of priority: 1. Unc platinum-W (last year, low mintages, two sold-out coins) 2. Unc buffalo gold (one year set, one sold-out coin) 3. Proof buffalo gold (one year set) 4. Unc gold-W (last year and short series of W coins) 5. Proof platinum (last year of fractional plats)
I know others will have their list and would like their comments.
*Mint State Fractional Gold eagles with the Saint obverse: Well we finally know how many coins comprise these lovely little sets....26 or 27 coins!
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I was under the impression that the fractional *bullion* gold eagles (without mint mark) would continue being struck going forward. Just the "W" collector burnished would be discontinued.
The only thing that drives key date values is the incomplete common date sets that need them.
I think there is also a subset of collectors that collect *only* keys as "trophy" coins, and leave the common dates alone. This practice has been facilitated by slabbing, for several reasons. Keys in major TPG holders are guaranteed to be genuine, and are easier than albums to show around. Albums are less likely to house complete sets, due to the risk of keys being counterfeit (and if uncirculated, becoming damaged). Where this is the case, albums can not be "completed" because of the unfilled holes for the (slabbed) key dates, and the complete sets lose some of their visual symmetry. Where space is a consideration, a collection of slabbed keys takes up less room than a group of coin albums. Finally, in closed series where metal value is not a major factor, keys offer greater potential for future price appreciation.
Re the Buffalo fractionals, I think there will always be strong demand for the $10 quarter-ounce coin in proof and burnished uncirculated, due to the similarity in size to the Buffalo nickel.
Eric, I agree with your assessment that the Gold Buffaloes look great here, as well as APEs. I wish I had more money to put down on them, but I have reached my limit already.
<< <i>*Mint State Fractional Gold eagles with the Saint obverse: Well we finally know how many coins comprise these lovely little sets....26 or 27 coins!
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I was under the impression that the fractional *bullion* gold eagles (without mint mark) would continue being struck going forward. Just the "W" collector burnished would be discontinued.
Thanks! You are correct! I checked with Caroline at the mint and she said that they will strike the fractional gold eagles without the mint marks at least through next year but after that its anyones guess. SO I will correct my post......thanks!
If you had to choose only one, would you purchase the UNC or Proof Buffalo set?
I wouldn't pick up a full set. Also, the one ounce Proof is not a one year type (one ouncers usually have the worst appreciation anyways). I would rather buy fractionals, but that's just me...
Comments
They show back ordered to me too:
I hope the mint lowers the price for everyone that purchased in the last 30 days too.
Eric
<< <i>No I did not reverse them. Thats what the mint says and I have no faith in the numbers.
Eric >>
This is worst than last week's #'s.
San Diego, CA
<< <i>If the Mint reprices lower on Saturday, 90% of the platinum sold in the past 3 weeks, will be on it's way back next Monday. >>
No, they will be at the Post Office on Saturday.
San Diego, CA
FloridaBill
<< <i>What are the chances a big player took down all the remaining stock?
FloridaBill >>
HSN did it
<< <i>The 4 coins sets went backorder before the repricing, they must have made less than 1500 sets. >>
Half strike, I think you are correct. The 4 coin set looks like it went down prior to the repricing hold. I think we may in fact be seeing confirmation that the 4 coin "w" set was short struck. I do not think the 2500 quarter # is anything close to correct. Go look at every single issue sales platinum eagle sold directly to the public and see how many times they sold over 2000 coins since 2003.........ZERO. How many times have they struck more quarters than tenths since 1997........zero. How much faith do I have that over "w" 1250 plat quarters were struck...............zero.
How the quarters will play out is not certain but if this 4 coin set was short stuck and they do not come back up.....in general we can say:
WELCOME TO THE NEW KINGS RIGHT BEFORE THE FRACTIONAL SERIES ALL CRASH INTO THE HISTORY BOOKS IN 2009!
UNC "W" PLATS
$100..423
$50...849
$25...2504
$10...2138
4 COIN SET ....1257
So let's assume this for finals:
UNC "W" PLATS
$100..1300
$50...1200
$25...1200
$10...2100
4 COIN SET ....1300
Or
UNC "W" PLATS 2008
$100..2600
$50...2500
$25...2500
$10...3400
******************************
UNC "W" PLATS 2006
$100..3068
$50...2577
$25...2676
$10...3544
With the melting of some 2006 for catalytic converters it may be surviving coins are identical. Only time will tell.
? what repricing hold? I'm completely confused now.
I just checked the website, everything is showing as "Product is not available"
Is the theory that the Mint is repricing down again? I read the press releases, and my interpretation was that the discontinuance of these lines was different from the clearance sale. Maybe I was wrong?
Eric J
We do not know the 4 coin set is down for good but it looks like they are at or near the end based on the way the system behaved.
I have to say I was one that didn't think it would happen however now that it is we will know shortly what the final sales numbers are so that is good. These coins could go up in price sooner than if if they stayed up for sale for the next 3 to 4 months. With the economy tanking everyday though I am not so sure if we do get much higher prices for some time until 2010 perhaps. Things are bleak right now with all prices falling unfortunately.
This is going to be a nail biter going down to the last minute!
To send them back or not to send send them back? that's what I want to know about all the Platinum I am holding!
LMAO....
Ren
<< <i>If the repricing is significant I will order what I have now within reason at a lower price send back my overpriced relics.
Ren >>
If the mint sets themselves up for a massive turnover of returned product like this they are idiots! Therefore this is precisely what I think they will do!
LMAO
<< <i>If the repricing is significant I will order what I have now within reason at a lower price send back my overpriced relics.
Ren >>
Bingo
ozzyfan269 makes a good point.
The more likely scenario is a temporary halt of sales, done in the most awkward way possible as only the Mint can-- halt sales without any announcement, using the "no longer available" description.
The reason for the temporary halt of sales is unknown, but given that the Dolley Madison First Spouse Gold remain available, while others were halted, and given the announced that most of the other bullion series they closed are on the discontinued list, and given the close of the American Eagle Gold proofs -- a series that is NOT on the discontinued list-- the most logical conclusion seems to be a repricing.
When these will go back on sale is anyone's guess. Based on past repricing, they could be dark for 30+ days to allow open return windows to expire before being offered again. It's also possible that the Mint has thrown the rulebook out, and is going to do a quick and dirty repricing timed to start with the announced clearance sale. Hopefully we'll all be better informed by Saturday.
<< <i>Logically speaking, there's almost no chance that all the existing stock of the "no longer available" coins sold out simultaneously.
The more likely scenario is a temporary halt of sales, done in the most awkward way possible as only the Mint can-- halt sales without any announcement, using the "no longer available" description.
The reason for the temporary halt of sales is unknown, but given that the Dolley Madison First Spouse Gold remain available, while others were halted, and given the announced that most of the other bullion series they closed are on the discontinued list, and given the close of the American Eagle Gold proofs -- a series that is NOT on the discontinued list-- the most logical conclusion seems to be a repricing.
When these will go back on sale is anyone's guess. Based on past repricing, they could be dark for 30+ days to allow open return windows to expire before being offered again. It's also possible that the Mint has thrown the rulebook out, and is going to do a quick and dirty repricing timed to start with the announced clearance sale. Hopefully we'll all be better informed by Saturday. >>
Repricing in less than a week? That is almost like breaking the speed of light.
<< <i>One thing I noticed is that a lot of other "sale" items, like coin covers, coin and die sets, etc. are still up for sale. These are the items the mint said would be part of the "sale" come Saturday, non? >>
This lends one to believe that they are pulling the old 30 day reprice trick again.
UNC "W" PLATS
$100..423
$50...849
$25...2504
$10...2138
4 COIN SET ....1257
Someone suggested to me that the $10 unc-w numbers might have dropped because of returns??
2138 was what they were placing the $25 sales at last week... seems like a very strange coincidence.
I don't know what to believe anymore.
For the UNC-W's
With the 4 cn set going dark at 1250~
The 1/10 reverting back to 2100~
The 1/4 at a falsely reported 2500~ (I have to go all out and say this is a joke-NEVER, NEVER have they sold more than 1250 single issue)
MY opinion is the final numbers will look like this
1 oz 1250
1/2 oz 1000
1/4 oz 1000
1/10 oz 2100
Sets 1250
That leaves us with ~100 excess orders, but I will live with a final mintage of 2100 - seems reasonable.
Additionally, the 400 increase in 1/4's brings us to the "suspect 1500" excess orders taken after going black - in week 2.
Needless to say that those 1500 orders have not been filled and never will be filled. The only b/o's being filled are the one off's with recent returns.
<< <i>Well put Eric.
For the UNC-W's
With the 4 cn set going dark at 1250~
The 1/10 reverting back to 2100~
The 1/4 at a falsely reported 2500~ (I have to go all out and say this is a joke-NEVER, NEVER have they sold more than 1250 single issue)
MY opinion is the final numbers will look like this
1 oz 1250
1/2 oz 1000
1/4 oz 1000
1/10 oz 2100
Sets 1250 >>
That would be historic! And one really, really, cool 3 year commemorative set.
Regardless of the mints intent you have to consider these commemorative coins, would you not?
"just got of the phone with the mint and supposedly the plan now is at noon friday the plat Unc 1/2oz goes for 569, the 1/2oz Unc AGE goes for 509, and the proof 1/2oz gold first spouses go for $549. that's friday 11/14 at noon."
Ren
<< <i>Anyone catch Mint News Blog 4:16pm?
"just got of the phone with the mint and supposedly the plan now is at noon friday the plat Unc 1/2oz goes for 569, the 1/2oz Unc AGE goes for 509, and the proof 1/2oz gold first spouses go for $549. that's friday 11/14 at noon."
Ren >>
yes i read that, sumorada posted a link to it.
So in summary how are 2008 Proof and Uncirculated Platinums looking compared to 2006 and 2007??
<< <i>Too many threads...too little time.
So in summary how are 2008 Proof and Uncirculated Platinums look compared to 2006 and 2007?? >>
To me , they look just as shiny although the reverses have different images on them.
<< <i>UNC "W" PLATS
$100..423
$50...849
$25...2504
$10...2138
4 COIN SET ....1257
Someone suggested to me that the $10 unc-w numbers might have dropped because of returns??
2138 was what they were placing the $25 sales at last week... seems like a very strange coincidence.
I don't know what to believe anymore. >>
The $25 and $10 are reversed on the newest nm stats.
1) The mint is killing most of its small and affordable small denomination coin series struck on the precious metals as of next year. We are not going to have to wonder very much about which coin will end up the key date of the series that are ending. The kings are kings and they will stay that way forever at least according to the Red Book listing anyway. Those that chose to collect the closed series(classic guys like to call closed series legacy sets) will not have to face a seemingly endless financial obligation every year that fluctuates with the metals market. When people are spending their money they like some degree of certainty and that's one comforting aspect about classic that the moderns collectors have been denied over the last 22 years. This is about to change!
2) From 1900-2000 coinage prices especially for key dates exploded in real terms and most of the respected coin historians attribute this to the growth in real net disposable income in the US. As has been stated before the majority of series total set values are contained in the leading three key dates. Over the last 100 years if you bought just the keys and let the rest of the coins go you would have the best appreciation rate possible especially if the keys are purchased prior to series maturity in the highest grades they could be found. This is a important aspect of what we do and historically with few exceptions its the only aspect worthy of note if you are talking about coinage pricing structures.
There are three important periods where the key dates advantages fell apart. The first is the great depression. Disposable income almost completely collapsed and Roosevelt in an attempt to increase the money supply drastically increased the official price of gold to $35 an oz. The public could not afford to collect coins in general and the common dates were dumped for face or melted and sold for the going price of gold. The only thing that drives key date values is the incomplete common date sets that need them. The fate of the common dates dictated the pricing fate of the keys and in 1933 that was not a pretty picture. As the thirties proved face and bullion are the ultimate pricing floors for coins and the cheap common dates bought near intrinsic value performed better than the keys. In time disposable income bounced back and the metal content was not an issue so the keys bounced back with a vengeance.
During the great silver boom of the late 70s-80 the Hunts dove the price of silver to almost $50 per oz. Washington quarter, mercury dime etc sets were taken into coin and bullion dealers. The 1932 D & S quarters were popped out and kept as were the 1916 D and 1921 D dimes. Everything else went into the junk bag of melting pot. Again the common dates moved up sharply but the keys were flat to down because they at least for a while had no home. Again the metals prices relaxed and good times returned.
Most of you that have been watching this board for the last 4 years can write this paragraph. Platinum in particular has seen a run from $700 an oz to $2300 in the last four years. Key date platinum eagles like the 2004 seated America half went from being a $685 coin to a $2400 by 2006. Over the last year and a half as the price of platinum exploded and the economy came under hardship the common date platinum eagle halves were sold off for melt to guys like Kitco & Silver town etc. From 2006 to the spring of 2008 the price of common dates doubled but the key date proof platinum halves were flat to down. Collectors were less able to afford the sets both due to less disposable income and higher common date prices so the key dates did not have common date sets to drive them and prices fell.
My point is this. Most of the time in the last 100 years if you just bought the key dates and not the sets you were in good shape. High grade key date collectors made a killing and enjoyed the best material. We each need to decide for ourselves where we think collecting, long term disposable income and metals prices are going from now on. I have been asked many times why bother to collect by set? The answer is multifaceted. The first reason is condition rarity. The lowest mintage coin may not be the rarest in high grade. Second is survival rate. A common date may become a dark horse key date if they are not saved. The last and maybe the most important is demand curve diversification. If disposable income improves again or capital preservation considerations issues increase collector demand the keys are in the set and will carry the day even if the metals are flat to down. If materials spike hard and drive all the keys underwater the total set value growth will carry the day. ALL coins face and metal value are their ultimate price floor and we will do well to keep this in mind.
Lets take a walk through some series:
*Buffalo Gold Proofs Fractionals and the behavior of popular one year type coins and commemoratives:
Do you guys remember this post from 2007.................................
"The problem with endless streams of coins without unifying design elements is the value of the coins to a large extent is not based primarily on mintage but by design appeal. Lets look at some examples of this:
1928 Hawaiian Half..... Mintage 10,000... MS-63 Price= $3000
1935 Hudson Half...... Mintage 10,000... MS-63 Price=$1000
1939 Arkansas Half-any... Mintage 2,100... MS-63 Price=$350
1935-1939 Arkansas-PD&S.. Mintage 85,000.. MS-63 Price=$100
1996 Wheel Chair Dollar.. Mintage 14,500... MS-69 Price=$300
2001 Buffalo Dollar.. .........Mintage 227,000.. MS-69 Price=$200
2000 Leif Ericson Dollar.. Mintage 28,000... MS-69 Price=$75
This is the danger we face. When a group of coins has a significant percentage of its members with completely different designs without some clearly unifying design element the series will be collected by design type. Dates and mint marks count for very little if anything. That’s the problem with the Arkansas halves. They are a 15 coin series with rare keys but it does not matter. They are a 85,000 total mintage type coin and the market prices them as such. You do not want a series you collect to get caught in this scenario."
Notice the Buffalo Dollar is dirt common....one of the most common of all silver dollar commems but it does not matter. Its a one year type coin that's got unreal market appeal. I don't understand it and frankly don't even like its looks but the public loves it. When the one once Buffalo gold first came out a couple years ago the demand was so great that even with sky high production rates coming out of the Mint the coins just could not be kept on the shelves. Finally the total population got so huge that the coins premium vanished and melt was its destiny . Now we know that up to this year there have been no fractional mint state or proof Buffalo gold coins at all. After this year all the fractional Buffalos will be gone. That makes all the proof fractionals a one year type coin with a mintage of less than 25,000 coins. How long it will take the fractional proof buffalo gold to mature is any ones guess and much of that lies with the economy but I suggest if you want one and can afford one go buy it.
*2008-W Buffalo Gold mint state:
The 2008-W $5 &10 fractionals have a total mintage of about 15,000-25,000 coins. Just like the proofs the popularity of the buffalo design has a good chance of absorbing the relatively small type coin mintage and driving the price to well above double issue price. Those numbers are also a very deep key if the buffalo fractionals are ever a bullion run and the series does not go to changing designs.
The 2008-w buff half is in trouble because its issued in four coin sets, single issue and the 8-8-8 sets thus the mintage is going to higher and its got the further handicap of being expensive.
The Mint has told us that the $50 gold buffalo that is struck in high quantities for bullion is going to survive next years purge. Lets assume this is correct.
2006 $50 mint state finish buffalo......323,000 coins----struck for bullion
2007 $50 mint state finish buffalo......167,000 coins----struck for bullion
2008 $50 mint state finish buffalo......200,000* coins----struck for bullion
2008-W $50 mint state finish buffalo....25,000* coins----struck for collectors
2009 $50 mint state finish buffalo......175,000* coins----struck for bullion
2010 $50 mint state finish buffalo......
Do you guys see it? We are looking at a multi year run thats going to have huge total series pops and in the midst of it all is going to be a small number of "2008-w" key dates. The only thing that might hurt the $50 2008-w is if the series one day goes to changing reverse it could become a high total pop type coin.
Most of the time when you buy a 4 coin set to get the fractionals the big coin is dead weight. This time its not clear to me that the big coin is dead weight at all. It may carry its weight just fine then some. What most do not grasp is the 2008-w $50 mint state buffalo may be its series 1995 -W silver eagle.
*Mint State Fractional Gold eagles with the Saint obverse:
Look at the mintage of the 1999-w, 2006-w, 2007-w and 2008-w gold eagles. The four "w" coins rule these sets and the common ones are twice as rare as 1950 proof Franklin halves! There are only going to be about 3,000 to 6,000 complete date and mint mark sets of these little coins in MS-69. Tight enough to be valuable but still achievable on a budget. As far as I am aware no new 1999-w rolls have been found for the $5 or $10 denomination in the last 2 years.
If you think collecting by date and mint make will endure as a principle collecting structure for gold coinage then the complete fractional gold eagle sets are attractive.
*First Spouse Gold:
*Silver Commems:
*Gold Commems:
*Proof Platinum Egles:
*Uncirculated Platinum Eagles:
*Dangers and Opportunities Associated with design based collecting:
*Design Based Rarity of Moderns.....tomorrows super sets
*Recent Dividing of Collector Demand
Will finish the above mentioned topics later.........and transfer it all to the first page.
I think now that the program is being discontinued, the year by year comparison is not as important. We're now at a closed series where virtually all the coins will have mintages under 5,000; lower than the Jackie Robinson $5 gold (the exception being the 2007 unc w $10, at 5,992 or so).
These numbers are discussed throughout our postings, but it's my opinion that they won't become "real" to the collectors who don't follow platinums until they're finalized and are printed up in the reference books. It's my belief that once that happens, these will finally start to be recognized for what they are - amazing coins that either escaped the attention of, or were shrugged off by most collectors at the outset, cementing their place in the history books as modern low mintage kings.
HELP!!! Because my head's spinning now...
Let's just say that I "just happen" to be sitting in front of my computer at around 12:01 tomrrow morning with a decent amount of cash burning a hole in my pocket...and although I already own multiples of the 2008 UNCs plats as well as a proof 1/4 and 1/2 plat...not to mention 4-coin proof and UNC buffalo sets...
From a strict potential rarity buy and hold point of view, what would I want to double or triple up on...more of the buffalo proof or unc fractionals? Some frac Eagles? More plat?!? Very confused....HELP!
Based upon my reading and understanding, here's my shopping list in order of priority:
1. Unc platinum-W (last year, low mintages, two sold-out coins)
2. Unc buffalo gold (one year set, one sold-out coin)
3. Proof buffalo gold (one year set)
4. Unc gold-W (last year and short series of W coins)
5. Proof platinum (last year of fractional plats)
I know others will have their list and would like their comments.
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I was under the impression that the fractional *bullion* gold eagles (without mint mark) would continue being struck going forward. Just the "W" collector burnished would be discontinued.
The only thing that drives key date values is the incomplete common date sets that need them.
I think there is also a subset of collectors that collect *only* keys as "trophy" coins, and leave the common dates alone. This practice has been facilitated by slabbing, for several reasons. Keys in major TPG holders are guaranteed to be genuine, and are easier than albums to show around. Albums are less likely to house complete sets, due to the risk of keys being counterfeit (and if uncirculated, becoming damaged). Where this is the case, albums can not be "completed" because of the unfilled holes for the (slabbed) key dates, and the complete sets lose some of their visual symmetry. Where space is a consideration, a collection of slabbed keys takes up less room than a group of coin albums. Finally, in closed series where metal value is not a major factor, keys offer greater potential for future price appreciation.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>*Mint State Fractional Gold eagles with the Saint obverse: Well we finally know how many coins comprise these lovely little sets....26 or 27 coins!
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I was under the impression that the fractional *bullion* gold eagles (without mint mark) would continue being struck going forward. Just the "W" collector burnished would be discontinued.
Thanks! You are correct! I checked with Caroline at the mint and she said that they will strike the fractional gold eagles without the mint marks at least through next year but after that its anyones guess. SO I will correct my post......thanks!
Eric
San Diego, CA
I wouldn't pick up a full set. Also, the one ounce Proof is not a one year type (one ouncers usually have the worst appreciation anyways). I would rather buy fractionals, but that's just me...
<< <i>If you had to choose only one, would you purchase the UNC or Proof Buffalo set? >>
I would likely buy the Proofs. Proofs are much more widely collected by the masses.