Well the 1/10 ouncers have a base and I'd guess it around 10,000 for the proofs sets. They don't have any issue selling that number year after year.
As of a year ago, I would have put the base for platinum proofs at around 6,000, and the base for unc-ws at about 4,000 (somewhat higher for $10s, somewhat lower for $100s). Those are rough estimates of course, based on observations of 2003 to 2007 for proof sales, and 2006 and 2007 for unc-ws.
I think the most rational way to assess it is to look at the mintage figures for each denomination and adjust downwards by 20% or so to account for bulk purchases by hoarders/speculators.
Those numbers are in constant flux, trending downwards; the high issue cost and rapid rise and fall of bullion has damaged the base. Lower issue price and better dissemination of information to potential collectors could reverse things.
<< <i>Just wondering...any reason I should hold on to PROOF 2008 1/4 and 1/2-ounce plat coins...I'm still within the 30-day return window.
Should I toss in some more money and buy a single proof 1-ounce...or order a couple more 1/2-ounce UNCs?
Meanwhile, I'm on backorder until at least 11/15 on the 1/4 ouncers...but I'm not holding my breath on those!
Thoughts...opinions? >>
I would definitely hang on to them. I think 2008 is going to be a very good year for the proof fractionals. I know there are a lot of 1/4-ounce fans here, but I personally prefer the half-ouncers, i.e. I think both denominations will be sought-after.
Just wondering...any reason I should hold on to PROOF 2008 1/4 and 1/2-ounce plat coins...I'm still within the 30-day return window.
RichR, that's really a tough question, and one which we are all dealing with.
For the proofs, we are basing our guesses at possible demand by looking at historical demand figures; it looks likely to me that 2008s will have lower than 2004 proof numbers. But that's strange; if the collector base is alive and well, they should be buying these up to 2004 numbers. That hasn't happened. Are people waiting? Are people broke? Did they exit the market when platinum hit $2,000/ounce? Are there people in the base who aren't yet aware these are back on sale?
With the 2008 unc ws, we have less information to work with to guess at the base. 2006 ws did very well at first, but much of that was based on excited speculation instead of collector action. 2007s should have been a better indication of actual collector demand, but would also continue to be impacted by 2006 speculation. 2008s are difficult to assess. Clearly there was early demand sufficient to sell about 600 of the larger coins and 1,100 of the $10s even at nosebleed prices. I doubt that was driven by bulk purchases by speculators, though the figures were probably driven at least to some extent by people who bit the bullet early on to get First Strike eligible coins.
A lot of the more vocal people here made larger, speculative buys in the hopes these would be a quick sellout of small remaining inventory; hoping for a quick profit opportunity using credit cards to fund purchases that they don't have the financial stomach to hold. The secondary market hasn't popped, and they will head for the exits, returning most of what they purchased and maybe revisiting things at the end of December.
I think that eventually all these coins will be fine, but that's just my opinion. Anyway, I think it makes sense to buy and hold what you want for your personal collection-- these are good coins. However, I don't see any reason to overextend yourself with bulk purchases in the hope for a quick flip opportunity... with the talk of returns on this board I expect that many, if not all, $25 unc backorders will be filled, and I don't see reason to fear a quick sellout on the rest. Even if there is a sellout, secondary market prices so far show that the market is pretty soft-- there are $10 offerings on ebay for $199 and maybe less than that; not a big premium after such a fast sellout. If you bought a bunch of coins that remain available as a speculative play, it might make sense to change tactics and return them, especially if they were purchased with money at a high interest rate or that you otherwise shouldn't be gambling with. In these financial times, it might be better to stay financially secure and avoid decent opportunities with marginal upside than to take big risks that could cost you dearly and may never pay off.
when I stared like 8 month ago my collection pcgs 25 pr 70 was thanks for neo he talk to me about the designs and what beauty. They are and know I love my set and the only I need is 97 98 and 04 if some body has for sale please let me know thanks..
I look for buy one 2006 w ms70 pcgs 50 dollar first strike
I think that eventually, all these coins will be fine, but that's just my opinion. Anyway, I think it makes sense to buy and hold what you want for your personal collection-- these are good coins. However, I don't see any reason to overextend yourself with bulk purchases in the hope for a quick flip opportunity...
At the risk of having Mr. Eureka popping in to slam us Plat guys for thinking that it's "only about money", I would agree with nycounsel - that all of these coins will be fine. Since most options for the 2008 Plats are still available, this has to be driving the flippers crazy. Although I don't think that he is a flipper, Rich R's questions exemplify the flippers' dilemma - can I make a quick buck on these?
In my view this ambiguity about returning vs. keeping the 2008's makes it good for collectors, and quasi-collectors (like me). Flippers want their money back quickly or it's not attractive. If you need the money, it's not worth buying more than what you need for your collection.
I'd have been much happier if the Mint hadn't ever put these back on sale. Then, we'd be talking about the "real deal" in collector coins. The flippers would never have bothered to pile in, because they never commit unless they think it's a slam dunk.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Jmski52 is correct...not a flipper...have only sold about 5 coins in my life (batches of junk silver excepted)...even held on to 10 each of the four 1996 plat denominations (inherited from my dad)...although selling some of those at $2000+/ounce now looks like it woulda been a pretty screwd move...and dad would have probably agreed.
However, from a potential numismatic rarity point of view, just hoping for the biggest bag for the buck.
Yes, I wonder if that may have generated the mint more excitement for next year to have the '08Ws cut off with a superlow mintage. Got the popcorn out to see what happens with the ultimate mintages for the year in unc. and proof. I see the currency bullions have all blown out mintages (relatively) after looking at the news of late - too bad!
Well, some of us stay faithful and get one per year; used to keep up with the ouncers but these have gotten too crazy in all of their iterations...
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Also, repeating what I've said in the past, there are several other compelling aspects to collecting platinum coins when it comes to valuation.
I absolutely agree that coin collecting should not just be about investment; but anytime you collect something there is an investment component to it.
As a collector, I want one of those soon to be issued high relief gold coins. Should I buy at the Mint's price, or will I get a better deal on the secondary market? All aspects of our hobby have a cost-benefit analysis; prices fluctuate with supply and demand.
Wise collectors recognize that there are times it's important to get in on the ground floor, while other times it's better to wait for a market to cool before getting involved.
Great coins can be slow starters... and the slow starters often do a lot better at holding value than their flash-in-the-pan counterparts. Slow starters often are initially rejected by the market; but most of them have a few things in common; the predominant one is simple: low mintage figures/low population. Now, low mintage figures alone do not guarantee that a coin will be successful. But it never hurts.
Generally, the best coins are those with a small population compared to their collector base. The Mint makes a 1995 silver eagle with a "w" mintmark, and a population of about 30,000. If it were a platinum coin, it would be worth melt. But because the collector base for silver eagles is so large, 30,000 makes it a relative scarcity, and the market bids it up to a few thousand dollars. The 1997 Jackie Robinson uncirculated $5 gold was a relatively uninspired design, lost in a long series of $5 commemoratives... but the mintage figures come out, and people took notice. Now, a coin that could have been purchased for a few hundred dollars 9 years ago commands a few thousand dollars.
There is no reason that the underappreciated platinum coins can't do the same; the hurdle that exists is creating demand. I know that the demand may never come. Platinums have largely been ignored, and are lost in a sea of collectibles issued by the Mint, many of which seem cheaper because they have a lower price; even though the inherent value of what you are receiving is much less.
Anyway, as a collector, I have a certain amount of faith that good coins will be recognized in time. And the platinums are certainly good coins. Great designs, nice looking coins, low mintage numbers... it isn't hard for me to be a believer. They won't ever be collected the way Silver Eagles are, but they certainly could be collected by a collector base larger than they have at present. And I believe they will be. >>
As in your earlier post you question why the $10 UNC 08-W only demands 199 on the 'bay while it enjoyed a quick sellout?
One of the reasons being it's availability in the 4 cn unc w set, not yet sold out.....
Time will tell us what real mintage levels are on the 08-w uncs, which many believe are very low,
I am one that believes that 08-w proof plats have been minted to 07 levels, and not as low as 04's, as they were available sooner than the 08-w unc's, sold better initially and have a bigger following.
One of the reasons being it's availability in the 4 cn unc w set, not yet sold out.....
that's true, though when all is said and done, i expect that the $10 will be a mintage of somewhere around 3,800 to 4,200 -- much closer to the 2006 w figure of 3,544 than 2007s 5992.
It's a really good coin for $135 and -- in my opinion-- a bargain at $199 on the secondary market; that's basically no different than the 2007 w $10 price in in MS69 brings for a coin that will in all probability have a substantially lower mintage.
IMO, I think we have bad sales numbers from the USM. I don't doubt they took the orders, but I do doubt they have the inventory to fill the orders.
The backorder status on 1/4's UNC that began on Monday, 10/20 in the late afternoon is still in place. A rolling two week delivery. I have not heard of ANY orders being FILLED that were placed AFTER backorder status was implemented.
If the product is in stock, it should start being delivered TODAY, as the rolling 2 weeks had a start delivery date of 11/4 (if you placed your order after backorder status was in place the evening of 10/20).
Well? Do we have "tons" of 1/4's being delivered? To the tune of 1,500 more? We're not talking about 1 or 2 coins. 1,500? Seems very quiet and unlikely.
Historical trends of mintages of PLATS from year to year and even % allotment between denominations within and between years are skewed.
In a year that started off with high metal values and EXTREMELY SLOW demand (July), followed by a sharp drop in metal prices and subsequent floods of returned coins,
IMO, it seems logical that the first and only run of these coins should not have been more than 50% of last years final sales/mintage.
Why wouldn't the USM take orders/sales FAR in excess of available stock, anticipating returned coins, and have buyers waiting in the wings if returns are plentiful?
They made it clear they DO NOT intend to strike and more and want to SELL all available stock.
If this is the true intention of the USM, the proper way to sell remaining stock is to indicate HOW MANY were struck and indicate that NO MORE WILL BE PRODUCED. Come and get 'em.
If the mintage number is low, they will go fast. If not, they will rot on the vine.
Even with all this drama, I think we may be in for a surprise with the mintage levels of the 08-w unc's.
I think the longer all the talk about the 08-W's is what is the chatter in the platinum world (which might be this thread on this forum) the better it is for the proof coins from this year.
They did not seem to get much of a pop when they went back on sale and I can't see any in rush of orders for these especially if the W unc coins have a higher then originally figured mintage. This is likely to keep flippers away in fear of getting stuck with those as well potentially.
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
Im not in the same camp when it comes to 08-w plat proofs.
IMO, those are not a play, I believe those were minted to 07 levels......much greater demand and better sales out of the gate than the unc plats.
If you believe the unc's are higher in numbers than most think, most likely the proofs will be higher as well......in relation to thier mintages last year.....
The so-called "rush" can only suck up available coins.........it's whether you believe there are more, or less, than last year or the key years.
<< <i>Im not in the same camp when it comes to 08-w plat proofs.
IMO, those are not a play, I believe those were minted to 07 levels......much greater demand and better sales out of the gate than the unc plats.
If you believe the unc's are higher in numbers than most think, most likely the proofs will be higher as well......in relation to thier mintages last year.....
The so-called "rush" can only suck up available coins.........it's whether you believe there are more, or less, than last year or the key years. >>
They might have alot of them struck, but the sales numbers right now are really low.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
Platinum unc. Eagle sales creep aheadlink Posted by Dave
The new platinum numbers were released by the Mint. Drum roll please.
The one-ounce 2008 uncirculated “W” platinum American Eagle saw sales rise by 67 coins to 393. It sounds more exciting if I write that total cumulative sales rose by 20 percent.
There was an increase of 33 coins for the half-ounce size, taking the total to 802.
For the quarter ounce, the increase was smaller still, just 23 coins. The total stands at 2,138.
For the much-watched tenth ounce, the Mint actually reduced the total that has been sold by 38 coins to 2,500 even.
Interestingly, the increase in the four-coin set was the largest individual number at 138, bringing the total cumulative sales to 1,191 sets.
Adding up all of the issue prices we get sales of $415,571.95 for the week. If we subtract the backward March of the tenth ounce, the net total sales for the past week amounts to $410,443.85.
In an age of $700 billion bank bailouts, that number seems rather small.
1) A shrinking base, increasing numbers of offerings from the Mint and a shrinking economy = smaller sales from the Mint (for each type/variety/denomination).
2) Prices paid on the secondary market for Proofs have remained strong, while prices paid for Burnished Uncs on the secondary market have cratered.
It seems that a smaller mintage for the Proofs just might offset the negative effects of a slightly smaller collector base and a shrinking economy.
The same effect might be noted for the Burnished Uncs, except that - since the Burnished Uncs are a smaller market - each of these factors are more accentuated than for the proofs, and therefore (the effects of) each of these factors are harder to predict.
To wit, the '06-W Uncs have not remained as strong in the secondary market as the Proofs. Both the apparent mintages for the '08-W Uncs and the collector base for them are smaller than for the Proofs.
Given these factors in addition to the uncertainty over sales vs. returns, I would expect the anxiety and speculation to be greater for the Uncs than for the Proofs. It also means that the Proofs might just be a better vehicle as a "longterm hold".
Better yet, get some of each.
Added: They might have alot of them struck, but the sales numbers right now are really low.....
Yep, especially compared to all previous years.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I've more than made my opinion known on those sales numbers.
No significant deliveries of 1/4's have been made for two weeks (after going black) calls into question if there really is inventory available to fill those orders (1,500 coins).
The other denoms reacting more "in-line" with expectations is not surprising, as everyone piled into 1/4's and then sat back and watched. If orders piled into those denoms, I would expect them to be skewed as well.
IMO, these numbers cant be trusted - and if i'm wrong, someone over at the USM fouled up big time with production. These coins, if in fact produced to 07 levels, will sit on the shelves forever.
Just curious...but for the 2008 UNCs....from a rarity perspective, what would be the "desired" range for each of the denominations?
Since I don't usually follow plats too closely (but I seeme to be making up for it during the last week or two), I keep seeing 2006 proofs used as the yardstick...when the smoke cleared what were those final mintages?
1) A shrinking base, increasing numbers of offerings from the Mint and a shrinking economy = smaller sales from the Mint (for each type/variety/denomination).
2) Prices paid on the secondary market for Proofs have remained strong, while prices paid for Burnished Uncs on the secondary market have cratered.
It seems that a smaller mintage for the Proofs just might offset the negative effects of a slightly smaller collector base and a shrinking economy.
The same effect might be noted for the Burnished Uncs, except that - since the Burnished Uncs are a smaller market - each of these factors are more accentuated than for the proofs, and therefore (the effects of) each of these factors are harder to predict.
To wit, the '06-W Uncs have not remained as strong in the secondary market as the Proofs. Both the apparent mintages for the '08-W Uncs and the collector base for them are smaller than for the Proofs.
Given these factors in addition to the uncertainty over sales vs. returns, I would expect the anxiety and speculation to be greater for the Uncs than for the Proofs. It also means that the Proofs might just be a better vehicle as a "longterm hold".
Better yet, get some of each.
Added: They might have alot of them struck, but the sales numbers right now are really low.....
Yep, especially compared to all previous years. >>
I would agree with you. The proofs are definately more quiet then there W unc brothers, which I like.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
<< <i>Just curious...but for the 2008 UNCs....from a rarity perspective, what would be the "desired" range for each of the denominations?
Since I don't usually follow plats too closely (but I seeme to be making up for it during the last week or two), I keep seeing 2006 proofs used as the yardstick...when the smoke cleared what were those final mintages? >>
The 2006 W Unc are the burnished coins used as the yardstick.....
The 2004 Proofs are the yardstick in regards to the proof coinage.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
No significant deliveries of 1/4's have been made for two weeks (after going black) calls into question if there really is inventory available to fill those orders (1,500 coins).
Please correct me if I'm wrong but as I understand it, your theory is that:
1. there is a 1,500 coin $25 backorder, and that those unfilled backorders were mistakenly included in the sales numbers reported as of Oct. 26.
2. the 1,500 number is determined by subtracting the Oct. 20 sales numbers (which you are okay with) from the Oct. 26 sales numbers (which you believe are suspect)
If that were true, why would the Mint make more $50s than $25s? $50s are still available, and the $50 individual sales figures are now at 802.
If your position is something else, please let me know... just trying to understand it.
Looking at just the APE 2008 $10's, of the 230 that have been slabbed by PCGS, 81 (35%) are PR70DCAM. That is historically high! Is that an indication that quality is top notch, the submitters have a better "eye," or that submitters are telling PCGS that they only want it slabbed if it's a 70?
<< <i>Looking at just the APE 2008 $10's, of the 230 that have been slabbed by PCGS, 81 (35%) are PR70DCAM. That is historically high! Is that an indication that quality is top notch, the submitters have a better "eye," or that submitters are telling PCGS that they only want it slabbed if it's a 70?
My guess is the latter, but what do I know? >>
You cannot make a submission and request MS/PR70 only.
We have the latest platinum figures from David Harper NN.
The first number represents the sales for that coin/set. The bracketed number [xxx] is the sales of that denomination prior to Oct. 17 (to show how many have been sold since sales reopened). The number + x shows the sales for that denomination since October 17. The parenthetical number shows the total of that denomination sold as of present (total of indivdidual coins sold plus the number in 4 coin sets).
2008 Unc W platinum type: now... July.. change...total with set $100: 393...[146]...+247.... (1584) $50: 802.....[126]...+676.....(1993) $25: 2138... [198]..+1940... (3329) $10: 2500...[708] ..+1792....(3691) Set: 1191....[453]...+1148
2008 Proof Platinum type: now... July...change..total with set $100:1560..[1222]...+338..(2950) $50: 781.....[682].....+99.....(2171) $25: 1025....[628]....+397...(2415) $10: 2224....[1255]..+969...(3614) Set: 1390.....[759]....+631
Comparing proofs to unc-ws, we're seeing that unc-w coins are selling more rapidly than the proofs across the board.
Note this: the $10 proof coins have sold 969, while $25 proofs have sold 397. A little more than 2:1, which is roughly in line with the price difference.
Again, we might expect similar numbers in the unc $25 w figures, though we would also expect that the $25s would pop once the $10s were no longer available. Still, the $25 w unc figure sticks out as being higher than we'd expect to see when compared with prior mintages.
For comparison, here are the total numbers for 2006 and 2007 w unc: ........ 2006......2007 $100: 3068....4025 $50: 2577.....3888 $25: 2676.....3829 $10: 3544.....5992
The past trend for uncirculateds, if 2 years can make a trend, is for $25 and $50 to be close, with a couple of hundred additional $100s, and a significantly higher number of $10s.
Lets ask the real question that many want to know.
How will this affect the short term sales values of the $10 and $25 2008-W's on the bay?
Well, it's pretty safe to guess it won't hurt. $10 and $25 sales on ebay haven't exactly taken off... $10s were reaching $300+ early on, but settled back down to around $165-$199. I don't see that anything has changed to impact $10 sales.
$25 sales haven't been very strong either. One raw coin sold today at a buy it now price of $389.95.
An NGC 70 sold for $625 on Nov. 3. Otherwise, most in the last 10 days or so seem to have closed without selling. I think that the "no longer available" could help firm up the marginal demand a bit; with coins selling for a small premium over issue price for the time being.
Man, I get wrapped up in my new job responsibilities for a few days and when I come back we're 400+ posts ahead of where I left off! What a wild ride this 2008 issue has been. It looks like the 2008s may surpass the 2006 w-unc figures, provided there is some stock of the $50s left...
Its also nice to see some new people contributing to this thread. Despite the changes in the economy and the intermittent sales of the plats, it looks like there is some new interest - which is always nice!
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
Comments
Just wondering...any reason I should hold on to PROOF 2008 1/4 and 1/2-ounce plat coins...I'm still within the 30-day return window.
Should I toss in some more money and buy a single proof 1-ounce...or order a couple more 1/2-ounce UNCs?
Meanwhile, I'm on backorder until at least 11/15 on the 1/4 ouncers...but I'm not holding my breath on those!
Thoughts...opinions?
2003 - 9,534
2004 - 7,161
2005 - 8,104
2006 - 10,356
2007 - 7,877
2008 - 3,312 (to date)
I knew it would happen.
As of a year ago, I would have put the base for platinum proofs at around 6,000, and the base for unc-ws at about 4,000 (somewhat higher for $10s, somewhat lower for $100s). Those are rough estimates of course, based on observations of 2003 to 2007 for proof sales, and 2006 and 2007 for unc-ws.
I think the most rational way to assess it is to look at the mintage figures for each denomination and adjust downwards by 20% or so to account for bulk purchases by hoarders/speculators.
Those numbers are in constant flux, trending downwards; the high issue cost and rapid rise and fall of bullion has damaged the base. Lower issue price and better dissemination of information to potential collectors could reverse things.
<< <i>Just wondering...any reason I should hold on to PROOF 2008 1/4 and 1/2-ounce plat coins...I'm still within the 30-day return window.
Should I toss in some more money and buy a single proof 1-ounce...or order a couple more 1/2-ounce UNCs?
Meanwhile, I'm on backorder until at least 11/15 on the 1/4 ouncers...but I'm not holding my breath on those!
Thoughts...opinions? >>
I would definitely hang on to them. I think 2008 is going to be a very good year for the proof fractionals. I know there are a lot of 1/4-ounce fans here, but I personally prefer the half-ouncers, i.e. I think both denominations will be sought-after.
RichR, that's really a tough question, and one which we are all dealing with.
For the proofs, we are basing our guesses at possible demand by looking at historical demand figures; it looks likely to me that 2008s will have lower than 2004 proof numbers. But that's strange; if the collector base is alive and well, they should be buying these up to 2004 numbers. That hasn't happened. Are people waiting? Are people broke? Did they exit the market when platinum hit $2,000/ounce? Are there people in the base who aren't yet aware these are back on sale?
With the 2008 unc ws, we have less information to work with to guess at the base. 2006 ws did very well at first, but much of that was based on excited speculation instead of collector action. 2007s should have been a better indication of actual collector demand, but would also continue to be impacted by 2006 speculation. 2008s are difficult to assess. Clearly there was early demand sufficient to sell about 600 of the larger coins and 1,100 of the $10s even at nosebleed prices. I doubt that was driven by bulk purchases by speculators, though the figures were probably driven at least to some extent by people who bit the bullet early on to get First Strike eligible coins.
A lot of the more vocal people here made larger, speculative buys in the hopes these would be a quick sellout of small remaining inventory; hoping for a quick profit opportunity using credit cards to fund purchases that they don't have the financial stomach to hold. The secondary market hasn't popped, and they will head for the exits, returning most of what they purchased and maybe revisiting things at the end of December.
I think that eventually all these coins will be fine, but that's just my opinion. Anyway, I think it makes sense to buy and hold what you want for your personal collection-- these are good coins. However, I don't see any reason to overextend yourself with bulk purchases in the hope for a quick flip opportunity... with the talk of returns on this board I expect that many, if not all, $25 unc backorders will be filled, and I don't see reason to fear a quick sellout on the rest. Even if there is a sellout, secondary market prices so far show that the market is pretty soft-- there are $10 offerings on ebay for $199 and maybe less than that; not a big premium after such a fast sellout. If you bought a bunch of coins that remain available as a speculative play, it might make sense to change tactics and return them, especially if they were purchased with money at a high interest rate or that you otherwise shouldn't be gambling with. In these financial times, it might be better to stay financially secure and avoid decent opportunities with marginal upside than to take big risks that could cost you dearly and may never pay off.
At the risk of having Mr. Eureka popping in to slam us Plat guys for thinking that it's "only about money", I would agree with nycounsel - that all of these coins will be fine. Since most options for the 2008 Plats are still available, this has to be driving the flippers crazy. Although I don't think that he is a flipper, Rich R's questions exemplify the flippers' dilemma - can I make a quick buck on these?
In my view this ambiguity about returning vs. keeping the 2008's makes it good for collectors, and quasi-collectors (like me). Flippers want their money back quickly or it's not attractive. If you need the money, it's not worth buying more than what you need for your collection.
I'd have been much happier if the Mint hadn't ever put these back on sale. Then, we'd be talking about the "real deal" in collector coins. The flippers would never have bothered to pile in, because they never commit unless they think it's a slam dunk.
I knew it would happen.
Jmski52 is correct...not a flipper...have only sold about 5 coins in my life (batches of junk silver excepted)...even held on to 10 each of the four 1996 plat denominations (inherited from my dad)...although selling some of those at $2000+/ounce now looks like it woulda been a pretty screwd move...and dad would have probably agreed.
However, from a potential numismatic rarity point of view, just hoping for the biggest bag for the buck.
Well, some of us stay faithful and get one per year; used to keep up with the ouncers but these have gotten too crazy in all of their iterations...
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Also, repeating what I've said in the past, there are several other compelling aspects to collecting platinum coins when it comes to valuation.
I absolutely agree that coin collecting should not just be about investment; but anytime you collect something there is an investment component to it.
As a collector, I want one of those soon to be issued high relief gold coins. Should I buy at the Mint's price, or will I get a better deal on the secondary market? All aspects of our hobby have a cost-benefit analysis; prices fluctuate with supply and demand.
Wise collectors recognize that there are times it's important to get in on the ground floor, while other times it's better to wait for a market to cool before getting involved.
Great coins can be slow starters... and the slow starters often do a lot better at holding value than their flash-in-the-pan counterparts. Slow starters often are initially rejected by the market; but most of them have a few things in common; the predominant one is simple: low mintage figures/low population. Now, low mintage figures alone do not guarantee that a coin will be successful. But it never hurts.
Generally, the best coins are those with a small population compared to their collector base. The Mint makes a 1995 silver eagle with a "w" mintmark, and a population of about 30,000. If it were a platinum coin, it would be worth melt. But because the collector base for silver eagles is so large, 30,000 makes it a relative scarcity, and the market bids it up to a few thousand dollars. The 1997 Jackie Robinson uncirculated $5 gold was a relatively uninspired design, lost in a long series of $5 commemoratives... but the mintage figures come out, and people took notice. Now, a coin that could have been purchased for a few hundred dollars 9 years ago commands a few thousand dollars.
There is no reason that the underappreciated platinum coins can't do the same; the hurdle that exists is creating demand. I know that the demand may never come. Platinums have largely been ignored, and are lost in a sea of collectibles issued by the Mint, many of which seem cheaper because they have a lower price; even though the inherent value of what you are receiving is much less.
Anyway, as a collector, I have a certain amount of faith that good coins will be recognized in time. And the platinums are certainly good coins. Great designs, nice looking coins, low mintage numbers... it isn't hard for me to be a believer. They won't ever be collected the way Silver Eagles are, but they certainly could be collected by a collector base larger than they have at present. And I believe they will be. >>
As usual, "NY" sums up my thoughts perfectly !!!
David
OK...for anyone who's interested...my 1/4-ounce UNCs are now backordered to 11/18.
Me thinks they're essentially gone and that the final mintage will be dialed downward.
I thank you all for the excellent advise and I will follow your guidance!
Thanks again,
Al
As in your earlier post you question why the $10 UNC 08-W only demands 199 on the 'bay while it enjoyed a quick sellout?
One of the reasons being it's availability in the 4 cn unc w set, not yet sold out.....
Time will tell us what real mintage levels are on the 08-w uncs, which many believe are very low,
I am one that believes that 08-w proof plats have been minted to 07 levels, and not as low as 04's, as they were available sooner than the 08-w unc's, sold better initially and have a bigger following.
that's true, though when all is said and done, i expect that the $10 will be a mintage of somewhere around 3,800 to 4,200 -- much closer to the 2006 w figure of 3,544 than 2007s 5992.
It's a really good coin for $135 and -- in my opinion-- a bargain at $199 on the secondary market; that's basically no different than the 2007 w $10 price in in MS69 brings for a coin that will in all probability have a substantially lower mintage.
The backorder status on 1/4's UNC that began on Monday, 10/20 in the late afternoon is still in place. A rolling two week delivery. I have not heard of ANY orders being FILLED that were placed AFTER backorder status was implemented.
If the product is in stock, it should start being delivered TODAY, as the rolling 2 weeks had a start delivery date of 11/4 (if you placed your order after backorder status was in place the evening of 10/20).
Well? Do we have "tons" of 1/4's being delivered? To the tune of 1,500 more? We're not talking about 1 or 2 coins. 1,500? Seems very quiet and unlikely.
Historical trends of mintages of PLATS from year to year and even % allotment between denominations within and between years are skewed.
In a year that started off with high metal values and EXTREMELY SLOW demand (July), followed by a sharp drop in metal prices and subsequent floods of returned coins,
IMO, it seems logical that the first and only run of these coins should not have been more than 50% of last years final sales/mintage.
Why wouldn't the USM take orders/sales FAR in excess of available stock, anticipating returned coins, and have buyers waiting in the wings if returns are plentiful?
They made it clear they DO NOT intend to strike and more and want to SELL all available stock.
If this is the true intention of the USM, the proper way to sell remaining stock is to indicate HOW MANY were struck and indicate that NO MORE WILL BE PRODUCED. Come and get 'em.
If the mintage number is low, they will go fast. If not, they will rot on the vine.
Even with all this drama, I think we may be in for a surprise with the mintage levels of the 08-w unc's.
They did not seem to get much of a pop when they went back on sale and I can't see any in rush of orders for these especially if the W unc coins have a higher then originally figured mintage. This is likely to keep flippers away in fear of getting stuck with those as well potentially.
IMO, those are not a play, I believe those were minted to 07 levels......much greater demand and better sales out of the gate than the unc plats.
If you believe the unc's are higher in numbers than most think, most likely the proofs will be higher as well......in relation to thier mintages last year.....
The so-called "rush" can only suck up available coins.........it's whether you believe there are more, or less, than last year or the key years.
Send me a private e-mail. I have something I want to tell you.
Thanks
Eric
<< <i>Im not in the same camp when it comes to 08-w plat proofs.
IMO, those are not a play, I believe those were minted to 07 levels......much greater demand and better sales out of the gate than the unc plats.
If you believe the unc's are higher in numbers than most think, most likely the proofs will be higher as well......in relation to thier mintages last year.....
The so-called "rush" can only suck up available coins.........it's whether you believe there are more, or less, than last year or the key years. >>
They might have alot of them struck, but the sales numbers right now are really low.....
Platinum unc. Eagle sales creep ahead link
Posted by Dave
The new platinum numbers were released by the Mint. Drum roll please.
The one-ounce 2008 uncirculated “W” platinum American Eagle saw sales rise by 67 coins to 393. It sounds more exciting if I write that total cumulative sales rose by 20 percent.
There was an increase of 33 coins for the half-ounce size, taking the total to 802.
For the quarter ounce, the increase was smaller still, just 23 coins. The total stands at 2,138.
For the much-watched tenth ounce, the Mint actually reduced the total that has been sold by 38 coins to 2,500 even.
Interestingly, the increase in the four-coin set was the largest individual number at 138, bringing the total cumulative sales to 1,191 sets.
Adding up all of the issue prices we get sales of $415,571.95 for the week. If we subtract the backward March of the tenth ounce, the net total sales for the past week amounts to $410,443.85.
In an age of $700 billion bank bailouts, that number seems rather small.
1 oz: 1584
1/2 oz: 1993
1/4 oz: 3329
1/10 oz: 3691 (single sale figure adjusted down to 2,500)
includes 1191 sets
Eric Jordan
1) A shrinking base, increasing numbers of offerings from the Mint and a shrinking economy = smaller sales from the Mint (for each type/variety/denomination).
2) Prices paid on the secondary market for Proofs have remained strong, while prices paid for Burnished Uncs on the secondary market have cratered.
It seems that a smaller mintage for the Proofs just might offset the negative effects of a slightly smaller collector base and a shrinking economy.
The same effect might be noted for the Burnished Uncs, except that - since the Burnished Uncs are a smaller market - each of these factors are more accentuated than for the proofs, and therefore (the effects of) each of these factors are harder to predict.
To wit, the '06-W Uncs have not remained as strong in the secondary market as the Proofs. Both the apparent mintages for the '08-W Uncs and the collector base for them are smaller than for the Proofs.
Given these factors in addition to the uncertainty over sales vs. returns, I would expect the anxiety and speculation to be greater for the Uncs than for the Proofs. It also means that the Proofs might just be a better vehicle as a "longterm hold".
Better yet, get some of each.
Added: They might have alot of them struck, but the sales numbers right now are really low.....
Yep, especially compared to all previous years.
I knew it would happen.
1 oz: 1584
1/2 oz: 1993
1/4 oz: 3329
1/10 oz: 3691 (single sale figure adjusted down to 2,500)
includes 1191 sets
So...am I wrong to say that while the 1/10 and 1/4 numbers are still pretty low....that the 1/2 and 1 ounce coins are Very VERY low?
I've more than made my opinion known on those sales numbers.
No significant deliveries of 1/4's have been made for two weeks (after going black) calls into question if there really is inventory available to fill those orders (1,500 coins).
The other denoms reacting more "in-line" with expectations is not surprising, as everyone piled into 1/4's and then sat back and watched. If orders piled into those denoms, I would expect them to be skewed as well.
IMO, these numbers cant be trusted - and if i'm wrong, someone over at the USM fouled up big time with production. These coins, if in fact produced to 07 levels, will sit on the shelves forever.
Time to sit back and see what happens.
Rgds
7over8
Just curious...but for the 2008 UNCs....from a rarity perspective, what would be the "desired" range for each of the denominations?
Since I don't usually follow plats too closely (but I seeme to be making up for it during the last week or two), I keep seeing 2006 proofs used as the yardstick...when the smoke cleared what were those final mintages?
<< <i>Raven -
1) A shrinking base, increasing numbers of offerings from the Mint and a shrinking economy = smaller sales from the Mint (for each type/variety/denomination).
2) Prices paid on the secondary market for Proofs have remained strong, while prices paid for Burnished Uncs on the secondary market have cratered.
It seems that a smaller mintage for the Proofs just might offset the negative effects of a slightly smaller collector base and a shrinking economy.
The same effect might be noted for the Burnished Uncs, except that - since the Burnished Uncs are a smaller market - each of these factors are more accentuated than for the proofs, and therefore (the effects of) each of these factors are harder to predict.
To wit, the '06-W Uncs have not remained as strong in the secondary market as the Proofs. Both the apparent mintages for the '08-W Uncs and the collector base for them are smaller than for the Proofs.
Given these factors in addition to the uncertainty over sales vs. returns, I would expect the anxiety and speculation to be greater for the Uncs than for the Proofs. It also means that the Proofs might just be a better vehicle as a "longterm hold".
Better yet, get some of each.
Added: They might have alot of them struck, but the sales numbers right now are really low.....
Yep, especially compared to all previous years. >>
I would agree with you. The proofs are definately more quiet then there W unc brothers, which I like.....
<< <i>Just curious...but for the 2008 UNCs....from a rarity perspective, what would be the "desired" range for each of the denominations?
Since I don't usually follow plats too closely (but I seeme to be making up for it during the last week or two), I keep seeing 2006 proofs used as the yardstick...when the smoke cleared what were those final mintages? >>
The 2006 W Unc are the burnished coins used as the yardstick.....
The 2004 Proofs are the yardstick in regards to the proof coinage.....
Please correct me if I'm wrong but as I understand it, your theory is that:
1. there is a 1,500 coin $25 backorder, and that those unfilled backorders were mistakenly included in the sales numbers reported as of Oct. 26.
2. the 1,500 number is determined by subtracting the Oct. 20 sales numbers (which you are okay with) from the Oct. 26 sales numbers (which you believe are suspect)
If that were true, why would the Mint make more $50s than $25s? $50s are still available, and the $50 individual sales figures are now at 802.
If your position is something else, please let me know... just trying to understand it.
My guess is the latter, but what do I know?
<< <i>my cell 646 573 3727 esmill >>
I really don't think its a good idea to post you cell number on the internet... JMHO
<< <i>The $25 is now expected to ship 11/20. Another one day bump. >>
Yep, I got the email also, bummer, probably going to get someone's return, hopefully its from someone playing the Platinum price game.
<< <i>Looking at just the APE 2008 $10's, of the 230 that have been slabbed by PCGS, 81 (35%) are PR70DCAM. That is historically high! Is that an indication that quality is top notch, the submitters have a better "eye," or that submitters are telling PCGS that they only want it slabbed if it's a 70?
My guess is the latter, but what do I know? >>
You cannot make a submission and request MS/PR70 only.
The first number represents the sales for that coin/set. The bracketed number [xxx] is the sales of that denomination prior to Oct. 17 (to show how many have been sold since sales reopened). The number + x shows the sales for that denomination since October 17. The parenthetical number shows the total of that denomination sold as of present (total of indivdidual coins sold plus the number in 4 coin sets).
2008 Unc W platinum
type: now... July.. change...total with set
$100: 393...[146]...+247.... (1584)
$50: 802.....[126]...+676.....(1993)
$25: 2138... [198]..+1940... (3329)
$10: 2500...[708] ..+1792....(3691)
Set: 1191....[453]...+1148
2008 Proof Platinum
type: now... July...change..total with set
$100:1560..[1222]...+338..(2950)
$50: 781.....[682].....+99.....(2171)
$25: 1025....[628]....+397...(2415)
$10: 2224....[1255]..+969...(3614)
Set: 1390.....[759]....+631
Comparing proofs to unc-ws, we're seeing that unc-w coins are selling more rapidly than the proofs across the board.
Note this: the $10 proof coins have sold 969, while $25 proofs have sold 397. A little more than 2:1, which is roughly in line with the price difference.
Again, we might expect similar numbers in the unc $25 w figures, though we would also expect that the $25s would pop once the $10s were no longer available. Still, the $25 w unc figure sticks out as being higher than we'd expect to see when compared with prior mintages.
For comparison, here are the total numbers for 2006 and 2007 w unc:
........ 2006......2007
$100: 3068....4025
$50: 2577.....3888
$25: 2676.....3829
$10: 3544.....5992
The past trend for uncirculateds, if 2 years can make a trend, is for $25 and $50 to be close, with a couple of hundred additional $100s, and a significantly higher number of $10s.
<< <i>OK now that the 1/10 and the 1/4 are officially gone does that change predictions for final mintages?? >>
Lets ask the real question that many want to know.
How will this affect the short term sales values of the $10 and $25 2008-W's on the bay?
Lets ask the real question that many want to know.
How will this affect the short term sales values of the $10 and $25 2008-W's on the bay?
Well, it's pretty safe to guess it won't hurt. $10 and $25 sales on ebay haven't exactly taken off... $10s were reaching $300+ early on, but settled back down to around $165-$199. I don't see that anything has changed to impact $10 sales.
$25 sales haven't been very strong either. One raw coin sold today at a buy it now price of $389.95.
An NGC 70 sold for $625 on Nov. 3. Otherwise, most in the last 10 days or so seem to have closed without selling. I think that the "no longer available" could help firm up the marginal demand a bit; with coins selling for a small premium over issue price for the time being.
Looks like the 2008-W burnished plats are selling at around the same price as the 2007-W.
IMO it is likely that the 2008-W mintage will be substantially lower than the 2007-W.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
San Diego, CA
if so, that's a good buy.
from a seller's perspective, you probably need to sell for about $360 on the $25 to hit breakeven after accounting for selling costs and fees.
Its also nice to see some new people contributing to this thread. Despite the changes in the economy and the intermittent sales of the plats, it looks like there is some new interest - which is always nice!
Eric