OK here is an interesting bullion comparison. These are the PCGS price guide numbers for the following coins. Now I will adjust the coin prices for the equivalent amount of platinum per set, or one ounce total in bullion.
So a 1/10 set is 4 times higher in valuation over the single ounce coins, a 1/4 set is 2.2 times, a 1/2 set is 1.8 times. This obviously suggests that price is a great influence on collector demand for the series, or so it seems.
Also we have seen the 1/10 sell out first from the mint for the 2006 and 2008 W coins which makes this seem accurate. Anyway just some mad scribblings on this series, not sure if it means much.
<< <i>OK here is an interesting bullion comparison. These are the PCGS price guide numbers for the following coins. Now I will adjust the coin prices for the equivalent amount of platinum per set, or one ounce total in bullion.
So a 1/10 set is 4 times higher in valuation over the single ounce coins, a 1/4 set is 2.2 times, a 1/2 set is 1.8 times. This obviously suggests that price is a great influence on collector demand for the series, or so it seems.
Also we have seen the 1/10 sell out first from the mint for the 2006 and 2008 W coins which makes this seem accurate. Anyway just some mad scribblings on this series, not sure if it means much.
>>
It means up mortals can afford the 1/10 ouncers but not the bigger coins. The quarters are in reach at this level but at 2k they just cost too much for your average collector.
That is because they are probably not going to buy on speculation, and are probably waiting it out for now. Back in 2006 there was little chance of getting very many from the mint ... when it became definite that the mintages were going to be very low....they sold out.
You know how coin shows have exhibits from coin club members. Wouldn't it be great to see an exhibit showing a complete set of platinum eagles, along with their mintages. I think it would be a great way to stimulate interest in them. And when the US Mint has a booth at the money show, they should do likewise.
<< <i>I still wonder about the melting that happened on the run up in platinum prices. A few cars may be driving around with 2006 W UNC cleaning the exhaust. >>
Yes that's the hype but not the case IMO. Now if you were to say the more common dates like the 1997 I'd agree. More than likely the UNC Plat coins (non-W) for investors hit the pot first. There just isn't too many 06's just floating out there since they are in everyones collection IMO. >>
I sent (6) 1 ozers of the 2006-w unc to Kitco for melt because they were offering $2200 for them. I know I am not the only won that melted the 06's en masse in the last year.
<< <i>I still wonder about the melting that happened on the run up in platinum prices. A few cars may be driving around with 2006 W UNC cleaning the exhaust. >>
Yes that's the hype but not the case IMO. Now if you were to say the more common dates like the 1997 I'd agree. More than likely the UNC Plat coins (non-W) for investors hit the pot first. There just isn't too many 06's just floating out there since they are in everyones collection IMO. >>
I sent (6) 1 ozers of the 2006-w unc to Kitco for melt because they were offering $2200 for them. I know I am not the only won that melted the 06's en masse in the last year. >>
I sent five 2006-w $100 unc plats to their grave at Kitco....and I did say it right- grave.......... MS-60
Platinum is still dropping and I am shipping these back to the Mint today:
(1) 1/4 oz. 2008-W Proof (1) 1/2 oz. 2008-W Proof
(1) 4-coin 2008-W Proof Set
(1) 1/4 oz. 2008-W Unc (1) 1/2 oz. 2008-W Unc
I kept about half of my order, and I already had 2 sets of each from my order when they first came out, but I decided that the Mint can have these back. I decided to avoid the 30-day rush.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I may also send a few of the worst looking pieces back once I am finished inspecting them, but I will wait until the last minute before I send them back. Who knows, maybe there will be more sellouts before then and I won't want to send them back?
<< <i>I may also send a few of the worst looking pieces back once I am finished inspecting them, but I will wait until the last minute before I send them back. Who knows, maybe there will be more sellouts before then and I won't want to send them back? >>
I am going to do the same. Good Unc "w" coins stay, dogs go back, but not until the end of the return option as I don't want to be caught sending back coins and then find 5 days later they go black at 1900 coins and I had 2 weeks left. There is little benefit of a early return.
Platinum is still dropping and I am shipping these back to the Mint today:
wow, I'm sorry, but I'm really surprised by that. When these went back on sale, platinum was at $850. The week before, it was $1000. Now it's at $780. Did you buy these thinking platinum would rebound in a week? Is it the $70 drop that prompts a return? Or concern because the market isn't liquid enough for $5 million in platinum coins to have been absorbed in a week?
Is the concern that platinum will continue to drop to $400? Or that these won't be low mintage coins? Or that hope that these will remain available and the Mint will reprice lower again? Returning these seems very short-cited. Especially the $25 unc, which is already selling for more than issue price on ebay.
It seems pretty silly than anyone with such a low tolerance would have purchased to begin with. Anyway, it's not by job to talk anyone into or out of buying these. You should certainly do what you think is best for your own financial well-being.
I should make clear, my $5 million in platinum coins comment is just a rough guess; it's probably a bit higher than that.
If there were 1000 unc sets, that would be $2.2M. Another 500 1oz would be $600k. 500 1/2 oz, $300k. 500 1/4 $160k, 1200 1/10 oz $165k. So just on the w uncirculated, that's probably about $3.5M. If the figures for the proofs are about the same (and they're likely higher), it's easily over $4M more, so really $7.5M plus to reach sell out. That just isn't going to happen in a week, especially not in this market, unless Bill Gates and Warren Buffet suddenly become platinum coin collectors.
Back to my favorite thread for advice. Any rumors on when/if the mint will drop the prices on gold spouses, eagles, buffalos, as their current mark-up is so far over spot. I bought a Jackson Liberty spouse proof at 619 and I am wondering if I was premature. I have been waiting to buy the Unc. Liberty to see if the price may go down. Thanks,
I’m collecting the liberty subset for my kids (that’s what I am telling my wife). I really like the old liberty designs and the low numbers after the Jefferson sell out are also very attractive. The seated liberty on the Van Buren I think is just beautiful. Hopefully the coin will be as pretty as the picture. Anyway, I have been waiting to see if the mint adjusts the gold prices before buying the Jackson Uncs.
wow, I'm sorry, but I'm really surprised by that. When these went back on sale, platinum was at $850. The week before, it was $1000. Now it's at $780. Did you buy these thinking platinum would rebound in a week? Is it the $70 drop that prompts a return? Or concern because the market isn't liquid enough for $5 million in platinum coins to have been absorbed in a week?
ny, I'm surprised that you're surprised. The price of platinum is a concern, of course. However, the main reason for my return is the quality of the coins being returned. The $25 unc I returned had the arm gouge, and although it was probably MS-69, the gouge did concern me. For the money, the Mint fell down on the job, in my opinion. I've still got about $14,000 in 2008 platinum even after this return, and there's no point in keeping the dregs just to placate the Mint or anyone else.
Is the concern that platinum will continue to drop to $400? Or that these won't be low mintage coins? Or that hope that these will remain available and the Mint will reprice lower again? Returning these seems very short-cited. Especially the $25 unc, which is already selling for more than issue price on ebay.
The Mint might very well re-price, and if they do I might consider taking another shot - I reserve the right to act like a flipper even if I'm not one. It's not my job to keep duplicates from the Mint's lower 25% quality coins from their production. It's my job to select the best coins for the money and recapture some capital that can be better spent than on some low quality platinum.
It seems pretty silly than anyone with such a low tolerance would have purchased to begin with. Anyway, it's not by job to talk anyone into or out of buying these. You should certainly do what you think is best for your own financial well-being.
It's not really a case of low tolerance. It's a matter of marginal utility. In view of the Mint's screwy return policy that especially caters to flippers, I have no qualms about doing exactly the same thing. Let's face it, the Mint's platinum is overpriced - especially when the price of the metal drops $220, rendering the Mint's markup even more obscene than usual. A few returns as the price of platinum drops might give them a clue that their customers actually CAN be price-sensitive.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
it is your own decision of what to do with your coins
keep them, send them back, etc.
however, I wouldnt be caught sending back a coin that is already sold out at what appears to be a very low mintage, it's akin to giving away money
especially when they are selling for a premium on the secondary mkt
additionally, potential low mintage plats do not price to spot platinum, they are priced as to their rarity/numismatic value - spot markets are not the issue here.....
I wouldnt be caught sending back a coin that is already sold out at what appears to be a very low mintage, it's akin to giving away money
especially when they are selling for a premium on the secondary mkt
additionally, potential low mintage plats do not price to spot platinum, they are priced as to their rarity/numismatic value - spot markets are not the issue here..... >>
I have to agree with you on this point. 2 months ago this price would have been a steal. So how can we now compare the spot price to the collector value of this precious metal in a price flux? Lets face it: they didnt just unearth a hidden cache of platinum in South Africa. It remains many times RARER than gold, and in my opinion always will be. As an industrial metal, still fairly new to the collector base, it obviously has felt the heavy hand of the global economic crisis. It will bounce back eventually. Maybe it will continue to drop in coming months, but it will rebound and this could be a huge buying oppurtunity. I just cant see the Mint re-pricing these again. If it is their original stock, they have already taken a HUGE hit.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
IMO, I think that though the mintage of the unc W plats may be low that they are not in "strong" hands - huge numbers appear to have gone to flippers a la the '06W coins, and we have seen what has happened to those in recent weeks as well as their overall history:
Low interest, low release numbers, publicity, flipper buys running up the numbers of lower mintage issues, run up in price by hype, stalling of interest, gradual fall in prices (sometimes not so gradual, and partly bullion price floored). It seems that this cycle recurs but that the time frame is compressed with each, and that eventually the mint may destroy its golden egg which is what many think will happen with the First Spouse coins.
Overall demand by true collectors also IMO is continuing to drop - who will the flippers sell to, other than selling to each other for escalating prices until the bubble bursts?
Don't get me wrong, I still love these coins but I think people ought to relax and not get overly excited by these coins.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
jmski and eric, I obviously respect your opinions on platinum, and mean no disrespect in questioning your decision to return coins.
I've never been a fan of those who overbuy from the Mint, cherrypick the best coins, and return what most would consider perfectly acceptable coins, although the Mint's overly generous return option allows that. I do not get the sense that either of you do that. And if you decide to return a portion of an order, it is only rational to return coins with flaws over those without.
My expressed surprise is primarily based on my belief, which I believe you share, that these will be among the lowest mintage coins yet. If that isn't enough for some of our most avid platinum followers to hold on to them, even when they were obtained at prices that represent a return to normalcy -- well within the range these coins have sold for dating back to 2004 -- well, I DO find that surprising.
I also see no reason to expect that another repricing. Logically speaking, even if the Mint were to consider repricing 2008s this late in the game, the most a repricing would cut prices by would be from the current pricing of about 1200/oz to something under 1,000/oz. maybe 20-25%? Of course, the Mint wouldn't do that without closing the sales window again for at least 30 days -- a step it would have to take, otherwise it would face mass returns from those who just purchased who would want to rebuy again at a lower price.
So if the Mint were to say "wow, today platinum dropped under $800, we'd better lower our prices", they'd have to first halt sales and then wait for the return window to close before reopening sales, planning to restart sales in late November. But who knows where platinum will be in a month?? Maybe it will be at $400. Maybe it will be at $1000. Check the historic charts- kitco . In 2004 and 2005, platinum was largely range-bound at roughly $800-900 an ounce, and the coins were offered at $2495 a proof set, roughly the same prices they are at now.
Interestingly, the individual coins were quite a bit more expensive then; the 4 coin set represented more of a bargain at that time than it does today. I'd also note that the 2003 prices on individual coins are not significantly different from current pricing; platinum ranged from $600 to $800 in 2003 2003.
Current prices are in line with the Mint's historic premium over melt with platinum in that range, not gouging.
I just don't see any reason to expect the Mint to reprice again; certainly not significantly enough to justify sitting on the sidelines and risking missing the opportunity presented.
I think that though the mintage of the unc W plats may be low that they are not in "strong" hands - huge numbers appear to have gone to flippers a la the '06W coins, and we have seen what has happened to those in recent weeks as well as their overall history:
the W plats have certainly decreased from their highs. I agree that this is not 2006, and anyone buying in 2008 with the expectation or hope that they will quadruple their money overnight, as was possible in 2006, is going to be disappointed. What concerns me is that there seems to be little faith in the sustained viability of the platinum collector market. I admit I've had my doubts, especially when platinum was breaking $2300 an ounce and 4 coin sets were priced at over $4200. But I don't think it makes sense to dwell on that-- if platinum returns to over $2000 an ounce, these 2008s are great buys as bullion alone.
If platinum stays at $700-900 an ounce, or even goes down from here, it makes it more likely that platinum collecting will gain traction, and as we've all said in the past, building the collector base is what's important for numismatic premium.
NYC, true, but the problem is that the flipper crowd is not wanting to hold on to these so in the medium run these coins may be bummers; long run, well, we will have to see where the economy goes as even at 700-900 per oz., platinum may not pull collectors - remember, it was at these levels or even lower for quite a while and interest on the part of collectors was not really there.
Not to be sour, I do love these coins and hope that prices and designs stay "sensible"...
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
My expressed surprise is primarily based on my belief, which I believe you share, that these will be among the lowest mintage coins yet. If that isn't enough for some of our most avid platinum followers to hold on to them, even when they were obtained at prices that represent a return to normalcy -- well within the range these coins have sold for dating back to 2004 -- well, I DO find that surprising.
nycounsel, I do share your belief that these coins will be among the lowest mintages yet. However, I've been here before - many times already, and the Mint continues to change the game in order to jack up sales, without regard for those who have supported their programs. They did it in 1995 with the "W" Proof Silver Eagles. They've done it with the "W" Burnished Plats, the Anniversary sets, Gold Spouses, Gold Buffs & fractionals, ad infinitum.
Of course I like these coins. But the Mint is following a gameplan such that each Mint Director feels compelled to "one up" the previous Mint Directors, and what we are caught up in is the Canadian Mint-ization of the U.S. Mint Coinage Programs.
We've discussed this before - that in creating so many options, the Mint is spreading the collector base so thin and diluting each collector's capital amongst so many options that demand is dropping off because nobody can maintain such a pace of acquisition.
The result continues to be lower and lower mintages, spread over more and more options. This does create more opportunity - as long as collectors can keep buying and as long as the economy provides enough capital to do so. That is undoubtedly changing.
I started buying AGEs when they first came out, mainly as a small investment in gold, and mainly because they were available at lower premiums than the generic gold coins that were available at the time. As such, the AGEs were a "good deal". Then in 1997, I became intrigued with the new platinum coins as an investment option, although I didn't buy any until 1998.
When I first began tracking platinum, the Proofs were the most desired variety. I began to notice that the Regular Uncs had declining mintage trends, particularly in 2000. At the time, I bought a roll of the 1/4 oz. Regular Uncs. and then later, some Certified and raw 1 ozers. - in both cases, I was attracted to the low mintages that I surmised would be more valuable as time went by. At that point, the 2000 1 oz. Uncs were the low mintage Kings of *all* Plat denominations. That lasted until the next year.
Rinse, lather, repeat. The same thing happened in '03, then '04, and "almost" in '05, except that it was the Proofs' turn to shine instead of the Regular Uncs. And we know what happened in '06 when the Mint couldn't resist the urge to roll out another variety - the "W" Uncs. Everyone yawned when they were first issued, until they became recognized as "the low mintage issue" and then they became keys. So, you might say that I grabbed for the brass ring as firmly as possible 5 different times by the end of '06. In '07, I did it again, and I also learned not to wait to order, after all of my '07 sets had been picked over by flippers once I got around to ordering them.
Over the years, I've observed that the Mint's margins for the "collector" Plats has increased to the point where they can only be considered a speculation - they are nowhere near what I consider to be a "good deal". When I first started, the margins for the collector Plats were in the 25% range. Now, they are usually around 45% for starters.
Now it's '08 and I ordered early, only to get shot in the foot by the market when it crashed. At least, the coins were nice on the original order. Anticipating that the new order period would be full of flippers, and being a speculator myself, I planned to return something - I just wasn't sure which coins they might be. I buy to keep and sell much later.
But you have to look ahead. I really can't decide whether the 2009 design will get my money. Since I am a white male who works for a living and supports the APE program every year, I am quite frankly offended that there is no white male depicted on the '09 coin. That's how PC works.
I might just buy a roll or two of palladium "fatties" when they come out. It will be just my luck that nobody likes the '09 Plats, and it will be the one year that becomes the mega-winner. Who knows? It could happen. And that could render this year's winner (the "W" Uncs) as "just another also-ran".
For me, the Plat Series has reached it's point of "marginal utility". No longer are the American Eagle coins a bargain. Using the 2006-W Uncs as an example, what was once a "Grand Slam Home Run" is now scarcely a "base on balls". The AE platinum program has the makings of a train wreck, and of course - the survivors will ultimately be the big winners. I'm just not sure that I can survive the train wreck that is the Mint's American Eagle coinage program.
What I would really like to see from the Mint is a major change towards supporting the collectors who have supported the Mint. Based on ordering histories, loyalty - stuff like that. Unfortunately, that's the last thing that I've come to expect from the Mint.
Regards, jmski.
Added: Whoa. I just went back, and based on your charts, my recollections of lower Mint margins are incorrect. I guess the higher prices make it harder to swallow, but you are right in saying that the Mint's premiums have decreased. I was all wet. Still, their premiums were as high as 80% (in '03) for the set, and even now, they are running as high as 65% for the proof set. That's just not good.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
On something of a different note, but one which is relevant to the collectors on this thread, another thread here touched upon a problem that exists for Modern collectors-- the Sheldon rarity scale, which caps out around 1,000, largely doesn't apply for us.
The Bowers URS scale attempts to categorize populations above 1,000, but I've always found it too awkward to use (and expect I'm not alone, which is why virtually no one uses the URS scale). For one thing, it purports to replace the Sheldon scale; for another, it ihas upwards of 20 categories, and the breaking off points from one to another are not intuitive.
I'm therefore proposing we adopt a new scale to supplement the Sheldon rarity scale for coins with populations over 1,000.
I respect that names like Bowers and Sheldon have earned their place among numismatists; I respect that. I may be a numismatic nobody, but it IS our hobby, and see no harm in any of us trying to help develop it.
The proposed "M" scale (M for modern)
M-1: population under 1,000 M-2: 1,000 to 2,500 M-3: 2,501 to 5,000 M-4: 5,001 to 7,500 M-5: 7,501 to 10,000 M-6: 10,001 to 25,000 M-7: 25,001 to 50,000 M-8: 50,001 to 100,000 M-9: over 100,000
For ease of reference, this link gives most of the existing rarity scales rarity scales. I've personally always thought the Fuld scale for tokens, which goes to 5,000, was the most useful, though I think the Sheldon/Overton scale, which cap out at 1,000, are most often referenced.
<< <i>I'd open it since you can't get "first strikes" now. This lot hasn't been the best quality and I'd want the right to send it back. JMO >>
On the other hand, sealed boxes some times sell for a premuim even if there not first strike eligible. Some people like that possibility of landing a 70.
They key now is to just stand back and watch the numbers coming out of the mint. If they stay low keep all that you have. If they spike send back what you do not need for your personal collection.
M-1: population under 1,000 M-2: 1,000 to 2,500 M-3: 2,501 to 5,000 M-4: 5,001 to 7,500 M-5: 7,501 to 10,000 M-6: 10,001 to 25,000 M-7: 25,001 to 50,000 M-8: 50,001 to 100,000 M-9: over 100,000
<< <i>I'd open it since you can't get "first strikes" now. This lot hasn't been the best quality and I'd want the right to send it back. JMO >>
On the other hand, sealed boxes some times sell for a premuim even if there not first strike eligible. Some people like that possibility of landing a 70. >>
Yes they do and you send one out that is won on Ebay and someone says there were no coins in the box and they use paypal guess what happens?
Well guys it looks like the mint has continued to sell the quarter after it went back order and the tenth sold quite a few since last week too:
Unc "w" platinum eagles
$100 single issue = 326 $50 single issue = 769 $25 single issue = 2115 $10 single issue = 2538 4 coin set = 1053
totals 1379 1822 3168 3591
Well unless the numbers on the weekly sales report are bad this does not look good. I don't understand how one can sell 1500 quarters single issue in a week as a back order item.
<< <i>Well guys it looks like the mint has continued to sell the quarter after it went back order and the tenth sold quite a few since last week too:
Unc "w" platinum eagles
$100 single issue = 326 $50 single issue = 769 $25 single issue = 2115 $10 single issue = 2538 4 coin set = 1053
totals 1379 1822 3168 3591
Well unless the numbers on the weekly sales report are bad this does not look good. I don't understand how one can sell 1500 quarters single issue in a week as a back order item.
There you have it folks! >>
Are you saying the mint sold over 1000 4-coin sets last week alone?
I am going to relax now and do nothing for a little while. I need to see next weeks sales report. The only problem with that is there are going to be so many returns that the numbers of the plats will be influx maybe to the point the sales report will not help.
$100 single issue = 326 $50 single issue = 769 $25 single issue = 2115 $10 single issue = 2538 4 coin set = 1053
totals 1379 1822 3168 3591
wow, these are interesting developments. Still, I wouldn't panic. The 1/10 oz will most likely be coins with mintages well under 5,000 and much lower than the 5,992 in 2007.
I guess the surprising thing is that the $25 numbers are as large as they are. The larger coins still have a decent shot at being lower than 2006, especially if these new figures result in a lot of set returns and the Mint eventually destroys any produced but unsold coins in inventory.
For reference, here's what I show as the 2006 and 2007 numbers:
2006 w $100: 3,068 $50: 2,577 $25: 2,676 $10 3,544 2007 w $100: 4,025 $50: 3,888 $25 3,829 $10 5,992
The 1/10 is closer to 2006 than the 1/4's are. Assuming only 500 more sets [a big assumption] and no more sales for either then the 1/10 will still be closer to 2006W but the 1/4 will be closer to 2007 sales. 1000 more sets and the 1/10 is in the middle and the 1/4 goes over 2007 if these numbers are correct.
PS I canceled a back ordered 1/4 to help you guys out. Now we know why they didn't put the 1/4's dark though. I'm holding the 1/10s though, they will hold their value and rise if that is the last sales for those coins IMHO.
I am going to relax now and do nothing for a little while. I need to see next weeks sales report. The only problem with that is there are going to be so many returns that the numbers of the plats will be influx maybe to the point the sales report will not help.
I would not like to be a Fulfillment Center employee right now! Imagine the amount of returns they are going to have to handle this week!!!
The flippers will no doubt fail to update their ebay auctions for the new numbers before their auctions close. That's what makes this board so valuable! Thanks, Eric.
This might at least help the 2006-Ws recapture some of their premiums. 2006-W Unc vs. 2008-W Unc - A technical knockout in the 7th Round.
We should NEVER FORGET that the Mint had at least 2,500 of the 1/4 oz. "W" Uncs waiting in the wings for re-pricing.
We should NEVER FORGET that the Mint had at least 2,400 of the 1/10 oz. "W" Uncs waiting in the wings for re-pricing.
And this lays to rest the idea that the Mint is obligated not to sell any of the "collector versions" at a loss. That idea is DISPROVEN.
These things simply have to be factored into any future plans in dealing with the Mint.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
21125 2006-W $10 325 335 345 355 365 375 400 700
21126 2006-W $25 470 480 490 500 510 520 550 1,600
21127 2006-W $50 800 810 820 830 840 850 900 2,000
21128 2006-W $100 885 895 905 915 925 935 1,000 3,000
Adjusted to one ounce, MS69 only.
21125 2006-W $10 4000
21126 2006-W $25 2200
21127 2006-W $50 1800
21128 2006-W $100 1000
So a 1/10 set is 4 times higher in valuation over the single ounce coins, a 1/4 set is 2.2 times, a 1/2 set is 1.8 times. This obviously suggests that price is a great influence on collector demand for the series, or so it seems.
Also we have seen the 1/10 sell out first from the mint for the 2006 and 2008 W coins which makes this seem accurate. Anyway just some mad scribblings on this series, not sure if it means much.
<< <i>OK here is an interesting bullion comparison. These are the PCGS price guide numbers for the following coins. Now I will adjust the coin prices for the equivalent amount of platinum per set, or one ounce total in bullion.
21125 2006-W $10 â–¼325 â–¼335 â–¼345 â–¼355 â–¼365 â–¼375 â–¼400 700
21126 2006-W $25 â–¼470 â–¼480 â–¼490 â–¼500 â–¼510 â–¼520 â–¼550 1,600
21127 2006-W $50 â–¼800 â–¼810 â–¼820 â–¼830 â–¼840 â–¼850 â–¼900 2,000
21128 2006-W $100 â–¼885 â–¼895 â–¼905 â–¼915 â–¼925 â–¼935 â–¼1,000 3,000
Adjusted to one ounce, MS69 only.
21125 2006-W $10 â–¼4000
21126 2006-W $25 â–¼2200
21127 2006-W $50 â–¼1800
21128 2006-W $100 â–¼1000
So a 1/10 set is 4 times higher in valuation over the single ounce coins, a 1/4 set is 2.2 times, a 1/2 set is 1.8 times. This obviously suggests that price is a great influence on collector demand for the series, or so it seems.
Also we have seen the 1/10 sell out first from the mint for the 2006 and 2008 W coins which makes this seem accurate. Anyway just some mad scribblings on this series, not sure if it means much.
It means up mortals can afford the 1/10 ouncers but not the bigger coins. The quarters are in reach at this level but at 2k they just cost too much for your average collector.
<< <i>
<< <i>I still wonder about the melting that happened on the run up in platinum prices. A few cars may be driving around with 2006 W UNC cleaning the exhaust. >>
Yes that's the hype but not the case IMO. Now if you were to say the more common dates like the 1997 I'd agree. More than likely the UNC Plat coins (non-W) for investors hit the pot first. There just isn't too many 06's just floating out there since they are in everyones collection IMO. >>
I sent (6) 1 ozers of the 2006-w unc to Kitco for melt because they were offering $2200 for them. I know I am not the only won that melted the 06's en masse in the last year.
21125 2006-W $10 4000
21126 2006-W $25 2200
21127 2006-W $50 1800
21128 2006-W $100 1000
The lowest mintage coin is not the one with the highest valuation? Price seems to mean more than mintage at these crazy levels.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I still wonder about the melting that happened on the run up in platinum prices. A few cars may be driving around with 2006 W UNC cleaning the exhaust. >>
Yes that's the hype but not the case IMO. Now if you were to say the more common dates like the 1997 I'd agree. More than likely the UNC Plat coins (non-W) for investors hit the pot first. There just isn't too many 06's just floating out there since they are in everyones collection IMO. >>
I sent (6) 1 ozers of the 2006-w unc to Kitco for melt because they were offering $2200 for them. I know I am not the only won that melted the 06's en masse in the last year. >>
I sent five 2006-w $100 unc plats to their grave at Kitco....and I did say it right- grave.......... MS-60
Eric
(1) 1/4 oz. 2008-W Proof
(1) 1/2 oz. 2008-W Proof
(1) 4-coin 2008-W Proof Set
(1) 1/4 oz. 2008-W Unc
(1) 1/2 oz. 2008-W Unc
I kept about half of my order, and I already had 2 sets of each from my order when they first came out, but I decided that the Mint can have these back. I decided to avoid the 30-day rush.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I may also send a few of the worst looking pieces back once I am finished inspecting them, but I will wait until the last minute before I send them back. Who knows, maybe there will be more sellouts before then and I won't want to send them back? >>
I am going to do the same. Good Unc "w" coins stay, dogs go back, but not until the end of the return option as I don't want to be caught sending back coins and then find 5 days later they go black at 1900 coins and I had 2 weeks left. There is little benefit of a early return.
wow, I'm sorry, but I'm really surprised by that. When these went back on sale, platinum was at $850. The week before, it was $1000. Now it's at $780. Did you buy these thinking platinum would rebound in a week? Is it the $70 drop that prompts a return? Or concern because the market isn't liquid enough for $5 million in platinum coins to have been absorbed in a week?
Is the concern that platinum will continue to drop to $400? Or that these won't be low mintage coins? Or that hope that these will remain available and the Mint will reprice lower again? Returning these seems very short-cited. Especially the $25 unc, which is already selling for more than issue price on ebay.
It seems pretty silly than anyone with such a low tolerance would have purchased to begin with. Anyway, it's not by job to talk anyone into or out of buying these. You should certainly do what you think is best for your own financial well-being.
If there were 1000 unc sets, that would be $2.2M. Another 500 1oz would be $600k. 500 1/2 oz, $300k. 500 1/4 $160k, 1200 1/10 oz $165k. So just on the w uncirculated, that's probably about $3.5M. If the figures for the proofs are about the same (and they're likely higher), it's easily over $4M more, so really $7.5M plus to reach sell out. That just isn't going to happen in a week, especially not in this market, unless Bill Gates and Warren Buffet suddenly become platinum coin collectors.
I bought a Jackson Liberty spouse proof at 619 and I am wondering if I was premature. I have been waiting to buy the Unc. Liberty to see if the price may go down.
Thanks,
Nycounsel really enjoyed your morning post.
mint link
I have been collecting the 1/10 oz gold eagles (2001-2007), but I don't know if these long term are work anything more then spot.....
Why sent back coins which you can flip for more then you paid for them? I would at least run these up to the local coin store first.....
ny, I'm surprised that you're surprised. The price of platinum is a concern, of course. However, the main reason for my return is the quality of the coins being returned. The $25 unc I returned had the arm gouge, and although it was probably MS-69, the gouge did concern me. For the money, the Mint fell down on the job, in my opinion. I've still got about $14,000 in 2008 platinum even after this return, and there's no point in keeping the dregs just to placate the Mint or anyone else.
Is the concern that platinum will continue to drop to $400? Or that these won't be low mintage coins? Or that hope that these will remain available and the Mint will reprice lower again? Returning these seems very short-cited. Especially the $25 unc, which is already selling for more than issue price on ebay.
The Mint might very well re-price, and if they do I might consider taking another shot - I reserve the right to act like a flipper even if I'm not one. It's not my job to keep duplicates from the Mint's lower 25% quality coins from their production. It's my job to select the best coins for the money and recapture some capital that can be better spent than on some low quality platinum.
It seems pretty silly than anyone with such a low tolerance would have purchased to begin with. Anyway, it's not by job to talk anyone into or out of buying these. You should certainly do what you think is best for your own financial well-being.
It's not really a case of low tolerance. It's a matter of marginal utility. In view of the Mint's screwy return policy that especially caters to flippers, I have no qualms about doing exactly the same thing. Let's face it, the Mint's platinum is overpriced - especially when the price of the metal drops $220, rendering the Mint's markup even more obscene than usual. A few returns as the price of platinum drops might give them a clue that their customers actually CAN be price-sensitive.
I knew it would happen.
it is your own decision of what to do with your coins
keep them, send them back, etc.
however, I wouldnt be caught sending back a coin that is already sold out at what appears to be a very low mintage, it's akin to giving away money
especially when they are selling for a premium on the secondary mkt
additionally, potential low mintage plats do not price to spot platinum, they are priced as to their rarity/numismatic value - spot markets are not the issue here.....
I wouldnt be caught sending back a coin that is already sold out at what appears to be a very low mintage, it's akin to giving away money
especially when they are selling for a premium on the secondary mkt
additionally, potential low mintage plats do not price to spot platinum, they are priced as to their rarity/numismatic value - spot markets are not the issue here..... >>
I have to agree with you on this point. 2 months ago this price would have been a steal. So how can we now compare the spot price to the collector value of this precious metal in a price flux? Lets face it: they didnt just unearth a hidden cache of platinum in South Africa. It remains many times RARER than gold, and in my opinion always will be. As an industrial metal, still fairly new to the collector base, it obviously has felt the heavy hand of the global economic crisis. It will bounce back eventually. Maybe it will continue to drop in coming months, but it will rebound and this could be a huge buying oppurtunity. I just cant see the Mint re-pricing these again. If it is their original stock, they have already taken a HUGE hit.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Low interest, low release numbers, publicity, flipper buys running up the numbers of lower mintage issues, run up in price by hype, stalling of interest, gradual fall in prices (sometimes not so gradual, and partly bullion price floored). It seems that this cycle recurs but that the time frame is compressed with each, and that eventually the mint may destroy its golden egg which is what many think will happen with the First Spouse coins.
Overall demand by true collectors also IMO is continuing to drop - who will the flippers sell to, other than selling to each other for escalating prices until the bubble bursts?
Don't get me wrong, I still love these coins but I think people ought to relax and not get overly excited by these coins.
Well, just Love coins, period.
I've never been a fan of those who overbuy from the Mint, cherrypick the best coins, and return what most would consider perfectly acceptable coins, although the Mint's overly generous return option allows that. I do not get the sense that either of you do that. And if you decide to return a portion of an order, it is only rational to return coins with flaws over those without.
My expressed surprise is primarily based on my belief, which I believe you share, that these will be among the lowest mintage coins yet. If that isn't enough for some of our most avid platinum followers to hold on to them, even when they were obtained at prices that represent a return to normalcy -- well within the range these coins have sold for dating back to 2004 -- well, I DO find that surprising.
I also see no reason to expect that another repricing. Logically speaking, even if the Mint were to consider repricing 2008s this late in the game, the most a repricing would cut prices by would be from the current pricing of about 1200/oz to something under 1,000/oz. maybe 20-25%? Of course, the Mint wouldn't do that without closing the sales window again for at least 30 days -- a step it would have to take, otherwise it would face mass returns from those who just purchased who would want to rebuy again at a lower price.
So if the Mint were to say "wow, today platinum dropped under $800, we'd better lower our prices", they'd have to first halt sales and then wait for the return window to close before reopening sales, planning to restart sales in late November. But who knows where platinum will be in a month?? Maybe it will be at $400. Maybe it will be at $1000. Check the historic charts-
kitco . In 2004 and 2005, platinum was largely range-bound at roughly $800-900 an ounce, and the coins were offered at $2495 a proof set, roughly the same prices they are at now.
Interestingly, the individual coins were quite a bit more expensive then; the 4 coin set represented more of a bargain at that time than it does today. I'd also note that the 2003 prices on individual coins are not significantly different from current pricing; platinum ranged from $600 to $800 in 2003 2003.
2003 1oz: $1,073, 1/2: $587, 1/4: $329, 1/10: $170, set: $1,995
2004 1oz: $1,345, 1/2: $735, 1/4: $410, 1/10: $210, set: $2,495
2005 1oz: $1,345, 1/2: $735, 1/4: $410, 1/10: $210, set: $2,495
Current prices are in line with the Mint's historic premium over melt with platinum in that range, not gouging.
I just don't see any reason to expect the Mint to reprice again; certainly not significantly enough to justify sitting on the sidelines and risking missing the opportunity presented.
the W plats have certainly decreased from their highs. I agree that this is not 2006, and anyone buying in 2008 with the expectation or hope that they will quadruple their money overnight, as was possible in 2006, is going to be disappointed. What concerns me is that there seems to be little faith in the sustained viability of the platinum collector market. I admit I've had my doubts, especially when platinum was breaking $2300 an ounce and 4 coin sets were priced at over $4200. But I don't think it makes sense to dwell on that-- if platinum returns to over $2000 an ounce, these 2008s are great buys as bullion alone.
If platinum stays at $700-900 an ounce, or even goes down from here, it makes it more likely that platinum collecting will gain traction, and as we've all said in the past, building the collector base is what's important for numismatic premium.
Not to be sour, I do love these coins and hope that prices and designs stay "sensible"...
Well, just Love coins, period.
nycounsel, I do share your belief that these coins will be among the lowest mintages yet. However, I've been here before - many times already, and the Mint continues to change the game in order to jack up sales, without regard for those who have supported their programs. They did it in 1995 with the "W" Proof Silver Eagles. They've done it with the "W" Burnished Plats, the Anniversary sets, Gold Spouses, Gold Buffs & fractionals, ad infinitum.
Of course I like these coins. But the Mint is following a gameplan such that each Mint Director feels compelled to "one up" the previous Mint Directors, and what we are caught up in is the Canadian Mint-ization of the U.S. Mint Coinage Programs.
We've discussed this before - that in creating so many options, the Mint is spreading the collector base so thin and diluting each collector's capital amongst so many options that demand is dropping off because nobody can maintain such a pace of acquisition.
The result continues to be lower and lower mintages, spread over more and more options. This does create more opportunity - as long as collectors can keep buying and as long as the economy provides enough capital to do so. That is undoubtedly changing.
I started buying AGEs when they first came out, mainly as a small investment in gold, and mainly because they were available at lower premiums than the generic gold coins that were available at the time. As such, the AGEs were a "good deal". Then in 1997, I became intrigued with the new platinum coins as an investment option, although I didn't buy any until 1998.
When I first began tracking platinum, the Proofs were the most desired variety. I began to notice that the Regular Uncs had declining mintage trends, particularly in 2000. At the time, I bought a roll of the 1/4 oz. Regular Uncs. and then later, some Certified and raw 1 ozers. - in both cases, I was attracted to the low mintages that I surmised would be more valuable as time went by. At that point, the 2000 1 oz. Uncs were the low mintage Kings of *all* Plat denominations. That lasted until the next year.
Rinse, lather, repeat. The same thing happened in '03, then '04, and "almost" in '05, except that it was the Proofs' turn to shine instead of the Regular Uncs. And we know what happened in '06 when the Mint couldn't resist the urge to roll out another variety - the "W" Uncs. Everyone yawned when they were first issued, until they became recognized as "the low mintage issue" and then they became keys. So, you might say that I grabbed for the brass ring as firmly as possible 5 different times by the end of '06. In '07, I did it again, and I also learned not to wait to order, after all of my '07 sets had been picked over by flippers once I got around to ordering them.
Over the years, I've observed that the Mint's margins for the "collector" Plats has increased to the point where they can only be considered a speculation - they are nowhere near what I consider to be a "good deal". When I first started, the margins for the collector Plats were in the 25% range. Now, they are usually around 45% for starters.
Now it's '08 and I ordered early, only to get shot in the foot by the market when it crashed. At least, the coins were nice on the original order. Anticipating that the new order period would be full of flippers, and being a speculator myself, I planned to return something - I just wasn't sure which coins they might be. I buy to keep and sell much later.
But you have to look ahead. I really can't decide whether the 2009 design will get my money. Since I am a white male who works for a living and supports the APE program every year, I am quite frankly offended that there is no white male depicted on the '09 coin. That's how PC works.
I might just buy a roll or two of palladium "fatties" when they come out. It will be just my luck that nobody likes the '09 Plats, and it will be the one year that becomes the mega-winner. Who knows? It could happen. And that could render this year's winner (the "W" Uncs) as "just another also-ran".
For me, the Plat Series has reached it's point of "marginal utility". No longer are the American Eagle coins a bargain. Using the 2006-W Uncs as an example, what was once a "Grand Slam Home Run" is now scarcely a "base on balls". The AE platinum program has the makings of a train wreck, and of course - the survivors will ultimately be the big winners. I'm just not sure that I can survive the train wreck that is the Mint's American Eagle coinage program.
What I would really like to see from the Mint is a major change towards supporting the collectors who have supported the Mint. Based on ordering histories, loyalty - stuff like that. Unfortunately, that's the last thing that I've come to expect from the Mint.
Regards, jmski.
Added: Whoa. I just went back, and based on your charts, my recollections of lower Mint margins are incorrect. I guess the higher prices make it harder to swallow, but you are right in saying that the Mint's premiums have decreased. I was all wet. Still, their premiums were as high as 80% (in '03) for the set, and even now, they are running as high as 65% for the proof set. That's just not good.
I knew it would happen.
The Bowers URS scale attempts to categorize populations above 1,000, but I've always found it too awkward to use (and expect I'm not alone, which is why virtually no one uses the URS scale). For one thing, it purports to replace the Sheldon scale; for another, it ihas upwards of 20 categories, and the breaking off points from one to another are not intuitive.
I'm therefore proposing we adopt a new scale to supplement the Sheldon rarity scale for coins with populations over 1,000.
I respect that names like Bowers and Sheldon have earned their place among numismatists; I respect that. I may be a numismatic nobody, but it IS our hobby, and see no harm in any of us trying to help develop it.
The proposed "M" scale (M for modern)
M-1: population under 1,000
M-2: 1,000 to 2,500
M-3: 2,501 to 5,000
M-4: 5,001 to 7,500
M-5: 7,501 to 10,000
M-6: 10,001 to 25,000
M-7: 25,001 to 50,000
M-8: 50,001 to 100,000
M-9: over 100,000
Thread proposing the "M" scale
For ease of reference, this link gives most of the existing rarity scales rarity scales. I've personally always thought the Fuld scale for tokens, which goes to 5,000, was the most useful, though I think the Sheldon/Overton scale, which cap out at 1,000, are most often referenced.
<< <i>I'd open it since you can't get "first strikes" now. This lot hasn't been the best quality and I'd want the right to send it back. JMO >>
On the other hand, sealed boxes some times sell for a premuim even if there not first strike eligible. Some people like that possibility of landing a 70.
They key now is to just stand back and watch the numbers coming out of the mint. If they stay low keep all that you have. If they spike send back what you do not need for your personal collection.
Ericj96
M-1: population under 1,000
M-2: 1,000 to 2,500
M-3: 2,501 to 5,000
M-4: 5,001 to 7,500
M-5: 7,501 to 10,000
M-6: 10,001 to 25,000
M-7: 25,001 to 50,000
M-8: 50,001 to 100,000
M-9: over 100,000
I like that. Nice job Dan!
<< <i>
<< <i>I'd open it since you can't get "first strikes" now. This lot hasn't been the best quality and I'd want the right to send it back. JMO >>
On the other hand, sealed boxes some times sell for a premuim even if there not first strike eligible. Some people like that possibility of landing a 70. >>
Yes they do and you send one out that is won on Ebay and someone says there were no coins in the box and they use paypal guess what happens?
I propose a special "Uncirculated Platinum" scale (abbreviated as "UP-SCALE").
UP-1: Population of 1 to 3,544 (rare)
UP-2: Population of 3,545 to infinity (common)
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Unc "w" platinum eagles
$100 single issue = 326
$50 single issue = 769
$25 single issue = 2115
$10 single issue = 2538
4 coin set = 1053
totals
1379
1822
3168
3591
Well unless the numbers on the weekly sales report are bad this does not look good. I don't understand how one can sell 1500 quarters single issue in a week as a back order item.
There you have it folks!
<< <i>Well guys it looks like the mint has continued to sell the quarter after it went back order and the tenth sold quite a few since last week too:
Unc "w" platinum eagles
$100 single issue = 326
$50 single issue = 769
$25 single issue = 2115
$10 single issue = 2538
4 coin set = 1053
totals
1379
1822
3168
3591
Well unless the numbers on the weekly sales report are bad this does not look good. I don't understand how one can sell 1500 quarters single issue in a week as a back order item.
There you have it folks! >>
Are you saying the mint sold over 1000 4-coin sets last week alone?
WHAT I DO NOT UNDERSTAND IS HOW YOU CAN SELL 1500 QUARTERS AS SINGLE ISSUE IN 7 DAYS WHEN THE COINS WERE "BACKORDERED" THE WHOLE TIME!
The $100 sales are understandable
The half sales are understandable
The 4 coin set sales are reasonable too.
The mint logs in extra orders to cover returns so the tenth sales are reasonable.
The quarters! Just blows my mind!
What are the proof numbers for this week, if you have them? Thank you!
713
948
2097
1219 four set
08 proof plats
$100 single issue = 326
$50 single issue = 769
$25 single issue = 2115
$10 single issue = 2538
4 coin set = 1053
totals
1379
1822
3168
3591
wow, these are interesting developments. Still, I wouldn't panic. The 1/10 oz will most likely be coins with mintages well under 5,000 and much lower than the 5,992 in 2007.
I guess the surprising thing is that the $25 numbers are as large as they are. The larger coins still have a decent shot at being lower than 2006, especially if these new figures result in a lot of set returns and the Mint eventually destroys any produced but unsold coins in inventory.
For reference, here's what I show as the 2006 and 2007 numbers:
2006 w $100: 3,068 $50: 2,577 $25: 2,676 $10 3,544
2007 w $100: 4,025 $50: 3,888 $25 3,829 $10 5,992
1 3068 4425 1379
1/2 2577 3930 1822
1/4 2676 3900 3168
1/10 3544 5783 3591
The 1/10 is closer to 2006 than the 1/4's are.
PS I canceled a back ordered 1/4 to help you guys out. Now we know why they didn't put the 1/4's dark though. I'm holding the 1/10s though, they will hold their value and rise if that is the last sales for those coins IMHO.
I would not like to be a Fulfillment Center employee right now! Imagine the amount of returns they are going to have to handle this week!!!
Nah - too easy on them, if anything.
I would not like to be a Fulfillment Center employee right now! Imagine the amount of returns they are going to have to handle this week!!!
Mine went out last night!
I knew it would happen.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I'll call that the "Early Bird Special"!
This might at least help the 2006-Ws recapture some of their premiums. 2006-W Unc vs. 2008-W Unc - A technical knockout in the 7th Round.
We should NEVER FORGET that the Mint had at least 2,500 of the 1/4 oz. "W" Uncs waiting in the wings for re-pricing.
We should NEVER FORGET that the Mint had at least 2,400 of the 1/10 oz. "W" Uncs waiting in the wings for re-pricing.
And this lays to rest the idea that the Mint is obligated not to sell any of the "collector versions" at a loss. That idea is DISPROVEN.
These things simply have to be factored into any future plans in dealing with the Mint.
I knew it would happen.