Last weeks #'s could be the Sales #'s and this week they shipped the booked orders, THUS this week's #'s increase by a large amount after the booked orders were shipped.
Sales = Orders Shipped , at least that is the way a normal business works.
Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent. San Diego, CA
I thought the mint said they had some remaining blanks to mint before the last of the bullion was sold. When they saw the rush of orders for these they may have minted more to fill existing orders and so the sales ran up much higher. I think the mint would use existing blanks to make the most money they could, and these coins were going for much more than regular bullion were. Just a guess but it might have happened.
Anyway the 2006 W coins seem to be established as the lowest of the low for now, unless the mint doesn't sell any more 1 ouncers and 1/2 ouncers. Hopefully they run out of the 4 coin sets this week, but with returns that may play out for another month now.
<< <i>Are those booked order #'s or are they Sales #'s.
Last weeks #'s could be the Sales #'s and this week they shipped the booked orders.
Sales = Orders Shipped , at least that is the way a normal business works. >>
So anything ordered under backorder would not be an order shipped. The 1/4's went on backorder within a dayor two of the 1/10's in fact they have been listed on backorder for two weeks now. How can they sell and ship that many between the blackout of the 1/10's and the monday when the 1/4's went on backorder?
Something smells rotten........ "The Obama Phenama"
<< <i>Are those booked order #'s or are they Sales #'s.
Last weeks #'s could be the Sales #'s and this week they shipped the booked orders.
Sales = Orders Shipped , at least that is the way a normal business works. >>
So anything ordered under backorder would not be an order shipped. The 1/4's went on backorder within a dayor two of the 1/10's in fact they have been listed on backorder for two weeks now. How can they sell and ship that many between the blackout of the 1/10's and the monday when the 1/4's went on backorder?
Something smells rotten........ "The Obama Phenama" >>
Large orders might have been on hold for a while, who knows.
Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent. San Diego, CA
THE LAST TIME I GOT NUMBERS THAT LOOKED LIKE THE QUARTERS DO NOW IT WAS 2005 PROOF PLAT HALVES. WE ALL KNOW HOW THAT TURNED OUT..........................2 YEARS IN LIMBO AND THEN A CORRECTION OF WELL OVER 1,000 COINS.
<< <i>Well guys it looks like the mint has continued to sell the quarter after it went back order and the tenth sold quite a few since last week too:
Unc "w" platinum eagles
$100 single issue = 326 $50 single issue = 769 $25 single issue = 2115 $10 single issue = 2538 4 coin set = 1053
totals 1379 1822 3168 3591
Well unless the numbers on the weekly sales report are bad this does not look good. I don't understand how one can sell 1500 quarters single issue in a week as a back order item.
There you have it folks! >>
Eric, Did these numbers come from NN. If so maybe the 1/4's were miskeyed and should be 1115 singles which makes more sense. 500 sold this week would be normal and totals more proportional.
If you look at the change in numbers over last week the numbers are factors of 500 I think.
1/4 exactly 1500 more sold.
1/10 492 more sold - within 8 of 500.
Strange????
Maybe it was another run after all. Anyway I expect a drop in numbers next week but they may have enough back ordered to fill the returns. Also the only one dark is the 1/10 so hopefully that is all they have.
At this rate I doubt they won't sell out the remaining as they have until next June for the UNC and May for the Proof. Will just have to wait and see how it ends up.
Not terribly surprising. The US Mint is happily moving Unc. Platinum at $1200 - $1300/oz when spot is $800/oz - nearly 60% premium to spot. I would expect a healthy number of returns though on the $25 coins, so the final figures might not be as high as they appear to be heading today.
This may also slow down sales of the 4-pc sets. The $100 coins may now be the sleeper(??)
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
It's too early to panic and return all the coins. A more prudent move would be to wait a couple of weeks as Eric suggested. There's plenty of time to return them later.
Change in numbers since October 17: $100 = 146 to 326 (+180) ($219,000) $50 = 126 to 769 (+643) ($399,000) $25 = 198 to 2115 (+1917)($613,000) $10 = 712 to 2538 (+1826) ($247,000) set = 453 to 1053 (+600) ($1,332,000)
comparison of 2006 through 2008 ...............$100.. $50...$25...$10 2006 w 3,068 2,577 2,676 3,544 2007 w 4,025 3,888 3,829 5,992 2008 w 1,379 1,822 3,168 3,591
so what do we know?
1. $10 are just above 2006 numbers. Assuming no more singles are made, final numbers will depend on set sales. 2. $25 are approaching 2007 numbers. Since the singles are presumably still available, they could exceed 2007 numbers. 3. $50 are below 2006 numbers by 750 coins. Depending on set and single coin sales, they will probably exceed 2006 numbers. 4. $100 are substantially lower than 2006 numbers. Depending on set and single coin sales, they will likely be lower than or close to 2006.
Let's start with the easy stuff. The $100 coin sales make sense. The bigger coins have largely tracked bullion, are most expensive, and it seems unlikely there will be a rush to purchase those while smaller coins remain an option.
I'd expect the $50 coins to probably be close to or slightly higher than 2006. It just seems likely to me that between sets and singles, we'll see that number increase by 750 coins.
$10 coins-- assuming no more singles are made, those should be a nice coin, maybe a couple of hundred above 2006. Really depends on how many sets there are.
If the original info we got holds true, with 600 sets sold, there should be about 400 sets left. who knows.
The $25 is clearly the biggest surprise.
First, because it's still available.
Second, it's inherently illogical for the Mint to have made more $25 coins than $10 coins.
Anyway, if these sales numbers hold true, we can expect a few things.
-Some bulk buyers will overreact and return coins.
-Sales will cool as current buyers grow concerned that the 2008 numbers won't be as low as some had hoped/expected.
I'm still surprised by the $25 numbers, and wonder if there could be a mistake there.
I'm also surprised that in this market, in less than 10 days, the Mint has moved almost $3,000,000 in 2008 w uncirculated coins.
Also, it seems unlikely to me that the Mint would produce, or would bother producing, small batches, 500 at a time, of these coins on an as-needed basis, but maybe someone with more inside knowledge can speak to that.
When the mint gets a return do they subtract that from the sales numbers? If not how can the sales numbers be anywhere near accurate for trying to determine mintage unless you also have the returns numbers?
If 10% of say the $25 ones were returned due to a large drop in the price of platinum and then later resold the sales numbers would be a good amount higher than the actual number of coins.
If they indeed cut off producing the $10 platinum coins next year that could be the reason why these are gone and the quarters are not with a mintage almost as high.....
Personally I think getting rid of the $10 would be a mistake so hopefully my logic is wrong.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
<< <i>If they indeed cut off producing the $10 platinum coins next year that could be the reason why these are gone and the quarters are not with a mintage almost as high.....
Personally I think getting rid of the $10 would be a mistake so hopefully my logic is wrong..... >>
I think a stir has been created over numbers that have not been "vetted out"
Before anyone goes ballistic over these numbers, you all have more than 3 weeks to return ANY purchases you made.
Additionally, I would like to see a confirmation of these numbers for the next two weeks, by several sources, to ensure one recipient of info wasnt given incorrect data.
The idea of minting more has no merit. The USM clearly stated they would sell REMAINING STOCK.
The numbers presented by the Office of Public Affairs are SALES NUMBERS. They arent shipped numbers, they arent mintage numbers.
As such, how do we know that they accepted SALES FAR IN EXCESS of available coins, to ensure that the coins they have left are COMPLETELY SOLD?
Two things SMELL VERY FISHY with the reported numbers. The tenth selling another 500 coins when already SOLD OUT, and the quarter selling a whopping 1500 additional coins when already on BACKORDER.
I think someone already mentioned the fact that 2115 could be a total sales number of quarters instead of single coin option. That would make sense. An additional 500 coins in single product option over the 615 (which I think would already have a 15-25% buffer for returns) which would net you at around 900 single issue coins.....that smells right.
I will say that the UNC-W's still have the very real possibility of being short run smaller than 06-w mintages. The proofs I wouldnt even take a shot on. The proofs were available earlier then the UNC's, the USM had more production time and they generally sell better.
Until we hear the next set of numbers, i'm holding tight.
For this series if it is not the lowest mintage its just bullion, it least at this point and for the near future.
sorry, but that just isn't true. coins with low mintages in this series, especially the more affordable lower denomination ones, have continued to show a premium over melt. moreover, even the common ones have shown resistance to tracking bullion the last few months.
I wouldnt jump to conclusions on numbers that havent been vetted out
I don't disagree with the spirit of your message, however, this is a group that has come to rely on assumptions based on best available information and rumor.
The reported sales figures on the $25 may prove to be wrong, but when we're given them, they are the best available information, and simply wishing it weren't true is not a reason to believe it isn't true.
Sales figures have always been what we go on; and we rely on those numbers as being reasonably accurate, even if they aren't etched in stone. Unless someone made a big error in reporting the $25 sales, I would take them as true for now.
There's clearly a lot of fear out there-- not just in platinum coin collecting, but in the market generally. The concern that 2008 ws might end up with numbers higher than 2006 -- a year when so many factors came into play to create those low mintages-- and 2007 -- a year when the market had a full opportunity to purchase, at issue prices higher than they are now, is probably overblown.
2006 ws still sell for a decent profit over their issue price; I don't think 2008s have to be lower than 2006 to be profitable (though it certainly doesn't hurt).
Panic doesn't make sense -- as others have noted, the return window is not even close to over-- and I wouldn't read too much into the fact that a couple of people have responded emotionally to a $25 mintage figure that exceeded our low expectations.
Agreed that we take pieces of information and data to form our opinion, like the sales reports,
But we have also been very misled when those reports have been wrong.
The case of the final sales of 06-w unc $100 comes to mind, where the report was overstated by 500+ coins. Then subsequently revised.
We have never seen growth in sales like those of the $10 and $25 UNC-W after they have gone backorder or sold out as we have with these coins.
So when we rely on these reports and interpret them to indicate where actual mintage will come in, we need to step back and look at the data over a period of time for a clearer trend that could lead to a proper conclusion.
These are sales reports, companies accept sales in excess of production for high demand products for many different reasons.
I dont get emotional over these things. I hope others dont either. You have more than enough time to examine the data over a few weeks time.
I dont have a crystal ball. Do I have an opinion, absolutely.
I intend to use the remaining return period wisely. My coins will not be shipped back until at least 25-28 days elapses, if I ship back at all.
The problem is, if you recall, that the restated numbers on the $100 coin were slow in coming.
Unless the $25 sales figure is nothing more than a typographical error, those numbers are not going to be restated (assuming a correction is in order) before the end of the return period.
I'm not going to question the decision of anyone convinced that 2008s have no market unless they have lower mintages than 2006 to return their coins, even if I disagree with the soundness of that decision.
Anyone without the stomach to hold a $320 coin with a $200 inherent bullion value and -- if the current sales figures are correct -- might be expected to have a mintage of about 4,000 (ballpark)... well, the decision to return is strictly between them and the Mint.
drei3ree, I would have to agree with this. In relative terms, the proofs look better than the "W" uncs when compared to "like kind" coins. Of course, it's not over till the fat lady sings................
The proofs are the play here at this point. Send all the UNCs back!
ozzyfan269, I wouldn't carry things quite that far!!
The numbers presented by the Office of Public Affairs are SALES NUMBERS. They arent shipped numbers, they arent mintage numbers.
I wouldnt jump to conclusions on numbers that havent been vetted out
The 1/10 and 1/4 sales are highly suspect.
7over8, in business a sale is recorded when the stuff ships and is invoiced, not before. Bookings aren't the same as sales, but the quantity shipped is usually very close to the quantity sold. Maybe the Mint does things differently - it wouldn't surprise me.
I don't know what numbers Eric is citing, but I would bet on Eric's information every time, since I have yet to see him give out bad info.
What's all this talk about panic, anyways? Sending some coins back doesn't amount to panic in my opinion. If I was going to panic, I'd be unloading about 80 oz. of Plats at these low prices. That would be panic, but that ain't gonna happen.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I think this is what the mint said about the platinum bullion on Oct. 7th as posted on mintnews:
"American Eagle Platinum Bullion Coins
All denominations were depleted last week. More coins will be produced based on current blank supplies, however, once that remaining inventory is depleted, no more coins will be produced for 2008. You will be notified when these are available for sale.
We will keep you updated as more information becomes available."
So on Oct. 7th they had more blank supplies and that was before this rush for the 2008 W UNC. People can decipher this as they want, but they had more blanks just before this last minute rush.
Do the blanks come to the mint raw? I was wondering because if they don't and they had only so many wouldn't the ones they use for the unc's only lower the amount they have for the proofs. Thanks Todd
Do the blanks come to the mint raw? I was wondering because if they don't and they had only so many wouldn't the ones they use for the unc's only lower the amount they have for the proofs. Thanks Todd
From the show on TV they order blanks from outside suppliers and store them at West Point where they mint the coins. They test the blanks for content and purity then prepare and mint the coins when ready.
The crazy thing is the new numbers are factors of 500.
1/4 exactly 1500 more sold.
1/10 492 more sold - within 8 of 500
I could see 8 1/10 coins destroyed during pressing as they do five presses or more per coin as platinum is incredibly hard. If you ever hold one outside of the holder it is like a steel coin that you can't scratch or dent, they are tough as nails.
It sounds like once the blanks are gone that is it for 2008 which would be UNC and proof. They sell off all that is left and returned, however long that takes. Eventually all will find a home somewhere.
I think this is what the mint said about the platinum bullion on Oct. 7th as posted on mintnews:
"American Eagle Platinum Bullion Coins
All denominations were depleted last week. More coins will be produced based on current blank supplies, however, once that remaining inventory is depleted, no more coins will be produced for 2008. You will be notified when these are available for sale.
We will keep you updated as more information becomes available."
I'm not sure how that makes any sense-- as of October 7th, these coins had not been available for months.
One possibility that everyone is overlooking is that the Mint decided to make a second run of the tenths and quarters.
No one is overlooking that possibility, it's certainly possible, but seems pretty unlikely- the Mint pulled these coins from availability early in the summer, when issue price was much higher. Why would they reprice them, reopen sales at the end of the year, and plan to make more so late in the game? If they were making a second run of tenths, why would they mark them as "unavailable" instead of on backorder?
I think there's very little reason to believe they are making more tenths; and despite the higher than expected numbers (with expectations based on nothing more than another rumor within the past week), I don't see any reason to think that the Mint is thinking about platinums at all, or minting these coins to order in groups of 500. Is it possible? I suppose. But the fact that something is arguably possible doesn't make it probable or likely.
The crazy thing is the new numbers are factors of 500.
It's an interesting theory; it also seems possible that the even numbers represent the sellout of individual $10 and $25, reflected by the "Product is not available" message for the $10 and however one may interpret the "Product will be available for shipping 11/12/2008" message for the $25.
Here is the difference between 2006 and 2008, the important numbers.
1 1689 less 1/2 755 less 1/4 492 more 1/10 47 more
The 1/10 sold out, the 1/4 in backorder, the 1/2 and 1 still open.
Now I am not sure how many sets they did, but if they ran off this many 1/10 and 1/4 then I wouldn't be surprised to see even 2500 4 coin sets. I hope not but anything is possible. My wish is they are done or 1500 max, but maybe the mint overestimated demand, who knows?
Anyway the spread from the 2008 sales to the 2007 for the 1/4 and 1/10 is this:
1/4 732 1/10 2192
This is the leaway in 4 coin set sales to surpass 2007 sales. If they have 732 more sets then the 1/4 will be the highest of the three years, 2192 and the 1/10 will be.
Anyway I agree it is time to wait and rest. Too much info too quick. I also ran numbers on the proof if anyone is interested and at the current rate we should see a resolution on the 1/10 and 1/4 within two months on how those fair compared to the lowest. For now I am on hold too.
the mint doesnt handle things like an ordinary business. we have seen this situation happen before when they quoted 2006-w $100 sales far in excess of what actually was available and sold.
I believe our so-called sales report resembles nothing more than orders taken, it has no connection to how many were shipped, and also has no relation to mintage.
I would hope that when coin supplies are exhausted and all cards have been charged, and all coins have been shipped, at some point in the future the beloved sales report DOES equal actual sales/mintage net of returns.
Comments
<< <i>no they sold about 385 set last week.
WHAT I DO NOT UNDERSTAND IS HOW YOU CAN SELL 1500 QUARTERS AS SINGLE ISSUE IN 7 DAYS WHEN THE COINS WERE "BACKORDERED" THE WHOLE TIME!
The $100 sales are understandable
The half sales are understandable
The 4 coin set sales are reasonable too.
The mint logs in extra orders to cover returns so the tenth sales are reasonable.
The quarters! Just blows my mind! >>
Something doesn't smell right. These boards would have been on fire reflecting these sales. I just can't see it.
<< <i>Something does not smell right ! >>
just because they took the sales doesn't mean there are any extra coins.
I dub it " The Obama Phenoma".
Most of the quarters that the early birds bought and will now return will be redistributed to the latecomers who have quarters on backorder status.
A classic case of redistributing the wealth.
Well, I don't know what is happening. However I think Eric is right in that we will know better after 1-2 more sales reports.
My sense is that the Proof 10s and 20s may turn out to be the real play here.
Let's see....
I dub it " The Obama Phenoma".
Most of the quarters that the early birds bought and will now return will be redistributed to the latecomers who have quarters on backorder status.
A classic case of redistributing the wealth.
Last weeks #'s could be the Sales #'s and this week they shipped the booked orders, THUS this week's #'s increase by a large amount after the booked orders were shipped.
Sales = Orders Shipped , at least that is the way a normal business works.
San Diego, CA
Anyway the 2006 W coins seem to be established as the lowest of the low for now, unless the mint doesn't sell any more 1 ouncers and 1/2 ouncers. Hopefully they run out of the 4 coin sets this week, but with returns that may play out for another month now.
<< <i>Are those booked order #'s or are they Sales #'s.
Last weeks #'s could be the Sales #'s and this week they shipped the booked orders.
Sales = Orders Shipped , at least that is the way a normal business works.
So anything ordered under backorder would not be an order shipped. The 1/4's went on backorder within a dayor two of the 1/10's in fact they have been listed on backorder for two weeks now. How can they sell and ship that many between the blackout of the 1/10's and the monday when the 1/4's went on backorder?
Something smells rotten........ "The Obama Phenama"
<< <i>
<< <i>Are those booked order #'s or are they Sales #'s.
Last weeks #'s could be the Sales #'s and this week they shipped the booked orders.
Sales = Orders Shipped , at least that is the way a normal business works.
So anything ordered under backorder would not be an order shipped. The 1/4's went on backorder within a dayor two of the 1/10's in fact they have been listed on backorder for two weeks now. How can they sell and ship that many between the blackout of the 1/10's and the monday when the 1/4's went on backorder?
Something smells rotten........ "The Obama Phenama" >>
Large orders might have been on hold for a while, who knows.
San Diego, CA
<< <i>Well guys it looks like the mint has continued to sell the quarter after it went back order and the tenth sold quite a few since last week too:
Unc "w" platinum eagles
$100 single issue = 326
$50 single issue = 769
$25 single issue = 2115
$10 single issue = 2538
4 coin set = 1053
totals
1379
1822
3168
3591
Well unless the numbers on the weekly sales report are bad this does not look good. I don't understand how one can sell 1500 quarters single issue in a week as a back order item.
There you have it folks! >>
Eric, Did these numbers come from NN. If so maybe the 1/4's were miskeyed and should be 1115 singles which makes more sense. 500 sold this week would be normal and totals more proportional.
Just a thought.
Joe
1/4 exactly 1500 more sold.
1/10 492 more sold - within 8 of 500.
Strange????
Maybe it was another run after all. Anyway I expect a drop in numbers next week but they may have enough back ordered to fill the returns. Also the only one dark is the 1/10 so hopefully that is all they have.
At this rate I doubt they won't sell out the remaining as they have until next June for the UNC and May for the Proof. Will just have to wait and see how it ends up.
This may also slow down sales of the 4-pc sets. The $100 coins may now be the sleeper(??)
Wondercoin
Change in numbers since October 17:
$100 = 146 to 326 (+180) ($219,000)
$50 = 126 to 769 (+643) ($399,000)
$25 = 198 to 2115 (+1917)($613,000)
$10 = 712 to 2538 (+1826) ($247,000)
set = 453 to 1053 (+600) ($1,332,000)
comparison of 2006 through 2008
...............$100.. $50...$25...$10
2006 w 3,068 2,577 2,676 3,544
2007 w 4,025 3,888 3,829 5,992
2008 w 1,379 1,822 3,168 3,591
so what do we know?
1. $10 are just above 2006 numbers. Assuming no more singles are made, final numbers will depend on set sales.
2. $25 are approaching 2007 numbers. Since the singles are presumably still available, they could exceed 2007 numbers.
3. $50 are below 2006 numbers by 750 coins. Depending on set and single coin sales, they will probably exceed 2006 numbers.
4. $100 are substantially lower than 2006 numbers. Depending on set and single coin sales, they will likely be lower than or close to 2006.
Let's start with the easy stuff. The $100 coin sales make sense. The bigger coins have largely tracked bullion, are most expensive, and it seems unlikely there will be a rush to purchase those while smaller coins remain an option.
I'd expect the $50 coins to probably be close to or slightly higher than 2006. It just seems likely to me that between sets and singles, we'll see that number increase by 750 coins.
$10 coins-- assuming no more singles are made, those should be a nice coin, maybe a couple of hundred above 2006. Really depends on how many sets there are.
If the original info we got holds true, with 600 sets sold, there should be about 400 sets left. who knows.
The $25 is clearly the biggest surprise.
First, because it's still available.
Second, it's inherently illogical for the Mint to have made more $25 coins than $10 coins.
Anyway, if these sales numbers hold true, we can expect a few things.
-Some bulk buyers will overreact and return coins.
-Sales will cool as current buyers grow concerned that the 2008 numbers won't be as low as some had hoped/expected.
I'm still surprised by the $25 numbers, and wonder if there could be a mistake there.
I'm also surprised that in this market, in less than 10 days, the Mint has moved almost $3,000,000 in 2008 w uncirculated coins.
Also, it seems unlikely to me that the Mint would produce, or would bother producing, small batches, 500 at a time, of these coins on an as-needed basis, but maybe someone with more inside knowledge can speak to that.
If not how can the sales numbers be anywhere near accurate for trying to determine mintage unless you also have the returns numbers?
If 10% of say the $25 ones were returned due to a large drop in the price of platinum and then later resold the sales numbers would be a good amount higher than the actual number of coins.
Personally I think getting rid of the $10 would be a mistake so hopefully my logic is wrong.....
Agree. Seems like only yesterday it seemed impossible to imagine mintages under 5,000.
Now numbers under 4,000 have us running for the exit. lol.
<< <i>If they indeed cut off producing the $10 platinum coins next year that could be the reason why these are gone and the quarters are not with a mintage almost as high.....
Personally I think getting rid of the $10 would be a mistake so hopefully my logic is wrong..... >>
You may be on to something....
<< <i>1148
713
948
2097
1219 four set
08 proof plats >>
I still think the proof comparison is favorable:
2008 2004
2367 6007
1932 5063
2167 5193
3315 7161
<< <i>amazing how numbers below 4000 coins causes people to freak out.
Agree. Seems like only yesterday it seemed impossible to imagine mintages under 5,000.
Now numbers under 4,000 have us running for the exit. lol. >>
For this series if it is not the lowest mintage its just bullion, it least at this point and for the near future.
I think a stir has been created over numbers that have not been "vetted out"
Before anyone goes ballistic over these numbers, you all have more than 3 weeks to return ANY purchases you made.
Additionally, I would like to see a confirmation of these numbers for the next two weeks, by several sources, to ensure one recipient of info wasnt given incorrect data.
The idea of minting more has no merit. The USM clearly stated they would sell REMAINING STOCK.
The numbers presented by the Office of Public Affairs are SALES NUMBERS. They arent shipped numbers, they arent mintage numbers.
As such, how do we know that they accepted SALES FAR IN EXCESS of available coins, to ensure that the coins they have left are COMPLETELY SOLD?
Two things SMELL VERY FISHY with the reported numbers. The tenth selling another 500 coins when already SOLD OUT, and the quarter selling a whopping 1500 additional coins when already on BACKORDER.
I think someone already mentioned the fact that 2115 could be a total sales number of quarters instead of single coin option. That would make sense. An additional 500 coins in single product option over the 615 (which I think would already have a 15-25% buffer for returns) which would net you at around 900 single issue coins.....that smells right.
I will say that the UNC-W's still have the very real possibility of being short run smaller than 06-w mintages. The proofs I wouldnt even take a shot on. The proofs were available earlier then the UNC's, the USM had more production time and they generally sell better.
Until we hear the next set of numbers, i'm holding tight.
I wouldnt jump to conclusions on numbers that havent been vetted out
The 1/10 and 1/4 sales are highly suspect.
sorry, but that just isn't true. coins with low mintages in this series, especially the more affordable lower denomination ones, have continued to show a premium over melt. moreover, even the common ones have shown resistance to tracking bullion the last few months.
I don't disagree with the spirit of your message, however, this is a group that has come to rely on assumptions based on best available information and rumor.
The reported sales figures on the $25 may prove to be wrong, but when we're given them, they are the best available information, and simply wishing it weren't true is not a reason to believe it isn't true.
Sales figures have always been what we go on; and we rely on those numbers as being reasonably accurate, even if they aren't etched in stone. Unless someone made a big error in reporting the $25 sales, I would take them as true for now.
There's clearly a lot of fear out there-- not just in platinum coin collecting, but in the market generally. The concern that 2008 ws might end up with numbers higher than 2006 -- a year when so many factors came into play to create those low mintages-- and 2007 -- a year when the market had a full opportunity to purchase, at issue prices higher than they are now, is probably overblown.
2006 ws still sell for a decent profit over their issue price; I don't think 2008s have to be lower than 2006 to be profitable (though it certainly doesn't hurt).
Panic doesn't make sense -- as others have noted, the return window is not even close to over-- and I wouldn't read too much into the fact that a couple of people have responded emotionally to a $25 mintage figure that exceeded our low expectations.
Agreed that we take pieces of information and data to form our opinion, like the sales reports,
But we have also been very misled when those reports have been wrong.
The case of the final sales of 06-w unc $100 comes to mind, where the report was overstated by 500+ coins. Then subsequently revised.
We have never seen growth in sales like those of the $10 and $25 UNC-W after they have gone backorder or sold out as we have with these coins.
So when we rely on these reports and interpret them to indicate where actual mintage will come in, we need to step back and look at the data over a period of time for a clearer trend that could lead to a proper conclusion.
These are sales reports, companies accept sales in excess of production for high demand products for many different reasons.
I dont get emotional over these things. I hope others dont either. You have more than enough time to examine the data over a few weeks time.
I dont have a crystal ball. Do I have an opinion, absolutely.
I intend to use the remaining return period wisely. My coins will not be shipped back until at least 25-28 days elapses, if I ship back at all.
Unless the $25 sales figure is nothing more than a typographical error, those numbers are not going to be restated (assuming a correction is in order) before the end of the return period.
I'm not going to question the decision of anyone convinced that 2008s have no market unless they have lower mintages than 2006 to return their coins, even if I disagree with the soundness of that decision.
Anyone without the stomach to hold a $320 coin with a $200 inherent bullion value and -- if the current sales figures are correct -- might be expected to have a mintage of about 4,000 (ballpark)... well, the decision to return is strictly between them and the Mint.
2008 2004
2367 6007
1932 5063
2167 5193
3315 7161
drei3ree, I would have to agree with this. In relative terms, the proofs look better than the "W" uncs when compared to "like kind" coins. Of course, it's not over till the fat lady sings................
The proofs are the play here at this point. Send all the UNCs back!
ozzyfan269, I wouldn't carry things quite that far!!
The numbers presented by the Office of Public Affairs are SALES NUMBERS. They arent shipped numbers, they arent mintage numbers.
I wouldnt jump to conclusions on numbers that havent been vetted out
The 1/10 and 1/4 sales are highly suspect.
7over8, in business a sale is recorded when the stuff ships and is invoiced, not before. Bookings aren't the same as sales, but the quantity shipped is usually very close to the quantity sold. Maybe the Mint does things differently - it wouldn't surprise me.
I don't know what numbers Eric is citing, but I would bet on Eric's information every time, since I have yet to see him give out bad info.
What's all this talk about panic, anyways? Sending some coins back doesn't amount to panic in my opinion. If I was going to panic, I'd be unloading about 80 oz. of Plats at these low prices. That would be panic, but that ain't gonna happen.
I knew it would happen.
"American Eagle Platinum Bullion Coins
All denominations were depleted last week. More coins will be produced based on current blank supplies, however, once that remaining inventory is depleted, no more coins will be produced for 2008. You will be notified when these are available for sale.
We will keep you updated as more information becomes available."
So on Oct. 7th they had more blank supplies and that was before this rush for the 2008 W UNC. People can decipher this as they want, but they had more blanks just before this last minute rush.
We also don't know what size the blanks where that they had, with the way bullion was selling, I would bet they where 1/2 and 1 oz sizes.....
<< <i>1148
713
948
2097
1219 four set
08 proof plats Did the 1oz coin go down. I thought we were at 1334 last week for that?
No, 1,379 is the number that Eric just gave for the 1 oz. "W" Uncs.
The previous numbers for the 1 oz. Proofs were:
2,367 (today's number)
2,304 (NN, 10-23 issue)
1,981 (NN, 10-14 issue)
1,981 (static for the past couple of months)
I knew it would happen.
From the show on TV they order blanks from outside suppliers and store them at West Point where they mint the coins. They test the blanks for content and purity then prepare and mint the coins when ready.
The crazy thing is the new numbers are factors of 500.
1/4 exactly 1500 more sold.
1/10 492 more sold - within 8 of 500
I could see 8 1/10 coins destroyed during pressing as they do five presses or more per coin as platinum is incredibly hard. If you ever hold one outside of the holder it is like a steel coin that you can't scratch or dent, they are tough as nails.
It sounds like once the blanks are gone that is it for 2008 which would be UNC and proof. They sell off all that is left and returned, however long that takes. Eventually all will find a home somewhere.
"American Eagle Platinum Bullion Coins
All denominations were depleted last week. More coins will be produced based on current blank supplies, however, once that remaining inventory is depleted, no more coins will be produced for 2008. You will be notified when these are available for sale.
We will keep you updated as more information becomes available."
I'm not sure how that makes any sense-- as of October 7th, these coins had not been available for months.
No one is overlooking that possibility, it's certainly possible, but seems pretty unlikely- the Mint pulled these coins from availability early in the summer, when issue price was much higher. Why would they reprice them, reopen sales at the end of the year, and plan to make more so late in the game? If they were making a second run of tenths, why would they mark them as "unavailable" instead of on backorder?
I think there's very little reason to believe they are making more tenths; and despite the higher than expected numbers (with expectations based on nothing more than another rumor within the past week), I don't see any reason to think that the Mint is thinking about platinums at all, or minting these coins to order in groups of 500. Is it possible? I suppose. But the fact that something is arguably possible doesn't make it probable or likely.
It's an interesting theory; it also seems possible that the even numbers represent the sellout of individual $10 and $25, reflected by the "Product is not available" message for the $10 and however one may interpret the "Product will be available for shipping 11/12/2008" message for the $25.
1 1689 less
1/2 755 less
1/4 492 more
1/10 47 more
The 1/10 sold out, the 1/4 in backorder, the 1/2 and 1 still open.
Now I am not sure how many sets they did, but if they ran off this many 1/10 and 1/4 then I wouldn't be surprised to see even 2500 4 coin sets. I hope not but anything is possible. My wish is they are done or 1500 max, but maybe the mint overestimated demand, who knows?
Anyway the spread from the 2008 sales to the 2007 for the 1/4 and 1/10 is this:
1/4 732
1/10 2192
This is the leaway in 4 coin set sales to surpass 2007 sales. If they have 732 more sets then the 1/4 will be the highest of the three years, 2192 and the 1/10 will be.
Anyway I agree it is time to wait and rest. Too much info too quick. I also ran numbers on the proof if anyone is interested and at the current rate we should see a resolution on the 1/10 and 1/4 within two months on how those fair compared to the lowest. For now I am on hold too.
the mint doesnt handle things like an ordinary business. we have seen this situation happen before when they quoted 2006-w $100 sales far in excess of what actually was available and sold.
I believe our so-called sales report resembles nothing more than orders taken, it has no connection to how many were shipped, and also has no relation to mintage.
I would hope that when coin supplies are exhausted and all cards have been charged, and all coins have been shipped, at some point in the future the beloved sales report DOES equal actual sales/mintage net of returns.