Give me a call today. Some of us are going to get together and find out if the quarter oz data point is just another typo.
And Groht about all I ever hear out of you is an endless rant about what dogs the mint and its employees are. They are a large public outfit that unlike many government programs does in fact try to respond to questions they are asked. I have found that I am much better reading what they say about themselves watching the data and thinking about a situation from a longer term perspective. If anyone gets the shaft its the mint with the more than gracious 30 day return policy.
Eric, I am not intending to be negative, but do the Mint Director and other decision-makers ever show concern for collectors, per se?
As a prime example, do they know that they are making things extremely difficult for true collectors when they issue so many different variations of these expensive platinum coins, not to mention the expensive gold coins and variations thereof?
Or, do they care more about sales and flippers?
It's an honest question, and I wondered if you've ever been party to a discussion relating to this. Regards, jmski
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I guess I'm the only one that just buys what I need for my collection every year. I don't have to worry about how much money I might be able to make in the future. They can't all be keys you know and really at these mintage levels they are still hard to get on the secondary market. If the collector bases ever grows on the UNC W's this issue will take care of itself. JMO
There is only one thing to say... Bend over and grab your ankles...the Mint is screwing everyone once again!
That's ridiculous. The Mint isn't screwing anyone, the Mint doesn't care about any of us or take us into account in any decision it makes.
The reaction to the latest sales figures is similarly ridiculous.
Follow the posts. Sales reopened. People saw opportunity. There were rumors that the $25s would go dark and that the numbers might be extremely favorable. There were rumors that the sets were limited to 1,000. We started speculating on final figures across the board based on these rumors.
So what's happened? The sales figures show that the rumors about the mintages of $25 coins were apparently false. Projecting based on current sales figures, I expect that $25 coins could end up with mintages of about 4,000 coins instead of 2,500. $10 coin numbers look like they'll end up a few hundred coins above 2006 numbers. The larger coins are still well under 2006 numbers, maybe they'll reach them, maybe not.
They can't all be keys you know and really at these mintage levels they are still hard to get on the secondary market.
The reason that they are at these mintages is because there are so many variations. I am convinced that the series would be much more coherent (and attainable) without so many variations. And I also maintain that a more coherent series would bring in more collectors. JMO.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
As with any investment, there is risk and some of that risk can't be contolled by you. As Ericj96 said, the 30 day return policy can lower that risk but the Mint is not concerned about me making money in the secondary market (and they shouldn't be) when they make their decisions. Secondary market activity is good for the Mint because it can be a driver of sales, and I'm sure that they are aware of it's existance.
But in some cases, their decisions are made by Congress (it is a law) so there is noting they can do. One thing that I did read was that the Mint was trying to fill some bullion orders for fractional platinum but they had a limited number of those as well.
Some winners take a while to develop, others happen within the 30 day return window. At least the downside here is better than some stocks which go bankrupt and are completely worthless. These coins are still worth their weight in platinum.
I'd keep playing. I don't think the heavy stuff will be coming down for quite a while!
The Mint isn't screwing anyone, the Mint doesn't care about any of us or take us into account in any decision it makes.
The reaction to the latest sales figures is similarly ridiculous.
Follow the posts. Sales reopened. People saw opportunity. There were rumors that the $25s would go dark and that the numbers might be extremely favorable. There were rumors that the sets were limited to 1,000. We started speculating on final figures across the board based on these rumors.
That is exactly what I'm talking about. Whether it is by design or accidental, the Mint is fomenting speculation. Much of it is caused by a lack of meaningful communication. Some of it is due to unforeseen market changes. And in my opinion, some of it is because the Mint doesn't particularly think about how they impact their regular customers.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I don't understand why people are acting as if the sky is falling.
Christ, even WITH a mintage of 4,000 (and we're several hundred sales away from that), the $25 coins have a MELT value of about $200 right now. They're coins with a likely mintage UNDER the Jackie Robinson $5 gold, available for $320 -- $120 over melt. This is NOT a tragedy for us.
Will they be $1,000 coins? Certainly not right away. No one is going to triple their money on these overnight. But they are STILL coins with crazy low mintages, available at a very reasonable price. On top of numismatic potential, they have additional potential upside as bullion. A few months ago, these would be worth $500 just a melt. I do not expect we'll see platinum at that level 2 months from now, but I also don't expect that platinum will become worthless, or will never go above $800 an ounce again.
Only 2 things matter
There are only TWO things that matter for secondary market price on these coins. Bullion value and collector demand.
Bullion value to establish the base price -- the absolute floor for these coins is melt. Melt right now is $200. It could go to $150. That doesn't mean coins will be available for that, it's just the floor for the market. If everyone decided not to collect lincoln cents any more, the floor for a 1955 doubled die cent would be its value as a small piece of copper.
Collector demand is really the key to the value of this coin. Now, we ALL know that these coins have not caught fire with collectors since they became available in 2006. But the mintages are UNDER 5,000. We don't need every silver Eagle collector out there to be interested in platinum to have demand exceed supply.
Heck, there are people paying $500 for 2008 American Eagles with mintages that FAR exceed whatever the 2008 w $25 platinums will be, because it has a different "U" in United. That's a coin with a melt value of about $10. Why do they do it? Because there are more American Eagle collectors than available coins.
What platinum coins need is NOT a bunch of nervous, ultra sensitive hand-wringing collectors who run for the exits at mintages under 5,000.
There may only be a few of us now, but these are NOT 2 cent pieces, these are not obsolete copper coins that have no relevance. These are modern coins, with good designs, made from a metal that is rarer than gold. I believe that much of the reason they are not widely collected is NOT because they have been considered and rejected by the hobby, but because of bad marketing and lack of p.r. These coins have suffered because of lack of press. Yeah, there were a few articles in 2006, because the numbers simply couldn't be ignored. What happened? 2007 numbers were higher-- even though issue prices went up, were higher than they are currently.
2008 IS an opportunity. Issue prices haven't been this low since 2004 -- a time when the "w" unc. wasn't even offered. 2008 proofs are likely to be lower-- probably much lower-- than 2004 proofs.
2008 w coins might not end up lower than 2006 w across the board, but seriously, the ONLY reason 2008s even stood a chance of being lower than 2006 to begin with had NOTHING to do with collector demand, it had to do with the fact that the Mint started the year with VERY high issue prices (double what they are now- yet still managed to sell 25% of 2006 mintages at that price) and then the Mint killed sales for 3 months, without warning. The 2008s were frozen at super low numbers, but that was NOT a reflection of demand, only the result of factors that were completely out of our control.
The case for 2008s
We should be focused on building the collector base for platinums, not running around like scared children. Platinums are more affordable now than they have been in years. The issue prices for platinum coins are very close to the issue price for gold. Platinums are among the rarest coins we've seen issued in our lifetime; several coins have numbers far lower than some the hottest coins in recent memory - the 1995 w silver eagle, the 2000 bimetallic congressional $10, the 1997 $5 Jackie Robinson gold, etc. There were more 1936 proof sets (3837) made than 2006 w coins, and far more 1937 proof sets (5542) than the 2008 ws will end up at.
If a few on this board want to return their $25 coins because they don't see upside in spending $320 for a coin with a $200 melt value with reported sales of 3,200, I'm not going to try to talk them out of it. Far from it, I encourage them to do so. If these coins don't speak to you, if they don't sell themselves, return them. Return your $25 coins. Return your sets. Return your $10 coins. I fully support your decision to return whatever you feel you can't afford.
That can only benefit me. If sales numbers go down, if mintages are lower as a result, it only makes my coins stronger. Conversely, if your returns gives new collectors the chance to obtain these coins at issue price, that also benefits me.
For those with deeper pockets, stronger stomachs, cooler heads, or who just haven't lost faith... we should all be trying to more actively promote the hobby. There are not many platinum collectors right now; probably fewer than 5,000 for proofs and unc-w combined. In 1997, there were a lot of platinum proofs sold. The numbers have declined over time, as platinum increased in value and people turned elsewhere. The number of collectors is probably as low now as it's ever been.
There are a handful of posters who haunt these boards who consider modern coins a waste of time, and enjoy making snarky comments about "widgets" and other silly put-downs. I don't know what drives their opinion, or what compels them to spend so much time paying attention to something they claim to have no interest in, but I do know this: They are wrong.
We should be playing offense, not defense
Platinums have a lot going for them. These coins deserve a wider base; the changing reverses makes them more interesting than the silver and gold bullion coins, they are more like commemoratives than bullion coins. They are largely available at little premium to melt. There are a number of denominations to chose from; 1 oz coins might be out of your budget, but the 1/10 and 1/4 oz coins are certainly relatively affordable. We should all be promoting the hobby and building the collector base, getting the word out about the reasons people should want to collect these coins instead of, or at least in addition to, 50 state quarters.
Platinums may not be widely collected today, but they are not dusty two cent coppers or three cent nickels. No offense, but platinums are not obsolete coins from the dustbins of history. We don't need a lot of new blood to turn things around; even a few hundred new collectors would invigorate the hobby. Write to the publications you subscribe to. Get the word out. Share your interest with other coin collectors. Wave your platinum flag. Platinums are not just moderns, they are the best of what moderns have to offer.
<< <i>Here is the difference between 2006 and 2008, the important numbers.
1 1689 less 1/2 755 less 1/4 492 more 1/10 47 more
The 1/10 sold out, the 1/4 in backorder, the 1/2 and 1 still open.
Now I am not sure how many sets they did, but if they ran off this many 1/10 and 1/4 then I wouldn't be surprised to see even 2500 4 coin sets. I hope not but anything is possible. My wish is they are done or 1500 max, but maybe the mint overestimated demand, who knows?
Anyway the spread from the 2008 sales to the 2007 for the 1/4 and 1/10 is this:
1/4 732 1/10 2192
This is the leaway in 4 coin set sales to surpass 2007 sales. If they have 732 more sets then the 1/4 will be the highest of the three years, 2192 and the 1/10 will be.
Anyway I agree it is time to wait and rest. Too much info too quick. I also ran numbers on the proof if anyone is interested and at the current rate we should see a resolution on the 1/10 and 1/4 within two months on how those fair compared to the lowest. For now I am on hold too. >>
"Write to the publications you subscribe to. Get the word out. Share your interest with other coin collectors. Wave your platinum flag. Platinums are not just moderns, they are the best of what moderns have to offer."
I agree with all you say, but regarding the line above, can we please wait until all the 2008s go dark???
<< <i>Please don't use the word "investment" for any hobby.
Investing is my hobby. And my investments involve coins. >>
Good Luck with that, I've seen this for over 30 years and it more of a miss than a hit in the coin hobby. I feel sorry for all the stress that your "investment" is causing you. I invest in a number of things including PM's but this is a "collectors value" play at present and the UNC W's haven't taken off really with a collectors base as is with the proofs (which isn't that big). With these mintages you have a shot but it may take 5 or 10 years to establish a base just like with the proofs, no one wanted them until 2004 which was good for me.
You never know new collectors could pick this series up since it's a fairly short series at present compared to the proofs but your just going to have to put your money down and see, I sure hope this isn't where all your investment money is going if that's your plan it sure shouldn't be over 5%. JMO
<< <i>On the $25 platinum, the "Product will be available for shipping" date is showing on my computer as 11/13/2008. Wasn't it 11/12/2008 yesterday? >>
That's what happened in 06. You ordered and got a backorder date and as it approached they extended it several times. I guess they are just waiting for all you guys returns. In the end I didn't get my 1/2 UNC W that was on BO.
<< <i>The mint ususally keeps plats available, minus a sell out, until the next years coins come out.
2008 coins became available May 5th for the proofs and July 1 for the Unc. 'w'.
That would mean the sets will be available, for the Unc., until July 2009, the proofs until May 2009. If history holds and no sell out. >>
Actually that isn't the case. If they don't sell out that is true but in this case they either keep on making them or it's a sell out like 06. They can't make this coin after the last day of December and with the old hags and all the offerings along with prep work for next year it's doubtful they will run another batch. The holiday are coming and mint employees take vacations around that time too. JMO
That's what happened in 06. You ordered and got a backorder date and as it approached they extended it several times. I guess they are just waiting for all you guys returns. In the end I didn't get my 1/2 UNC W that was on BO.
If that is happening again, it's possible that the reported sales numbers exceed the actual coins available.
That would mean the sets will be available, for the Unc., until July 2009, the proofs until May 2009. If history holds and no sell out.
I think that's true for the Proofs, but not the Uncs. My understanding is that the Uncs are sold until a sellout or until Dec. 31st, whichever comes first. I could be wrong, of course.
Does anyone know when the 2007-W Uncs were discontinued?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Please don't use the word "investment" for any hobby. If your only investing and not enjoying the coins you may well be disappointed. >>
I agree with you ttown.
With coins I do both: I collect them and I invest in some of them. In many cases I use profits from the investments (when they make a profit) to buy the coins I want to collect.
My previous post was more directed to those who are investing in the 2008-w platinum issue because I get the sense that some are starting to panic about the sales figures that were posted. I'm not trying to give investment advice because I've been wrong many times, but I like to look at the pros and cons when making a decision about these.
nycounsel has done a nice job of explaining the pros and cons on these coins.
I'd keep playing. I don't think the heavy stuff will be coming down for quite a while!
Are these coins with anything over melt, nothing is ever talked about in regards to these coins.....
Are only of the gold eagle coins really worth anything more then melt? I know a few of them from the late 88's have a bit of a premium.....
My 1/10 oz golf proofs, what is peoples opinion on these? Waste of time with no future, good potential? >>
I'm also surprised these aren't even on the radar. Before the unc-W golds, I loosely collected the regular bullion issue gold eagles and assumed that collector base would move into the unc-ws. I don't think that has happened--or the bullion eagle collector base has lost much of its membership. In any case, the unc-w gold eagles seem to be going nowhere fast. Like the plats, I think they will eventually become popular, but that could be decades down the road.
Regarding proofs, I don't see ANY potential for proof gold eagles now or in the future. Just too many of them. All you have to do is look at the valuation of the unc versus proof gold commemoratives of recent years to see that. Just my opinion.
Given the latest concern regarding the latest sales numbers, my original post from the other day be worth carefully re-reading now:
Regards,
David
(253) 851-0251
ORIGINAL POST:
Let me first say that I am the symbolic long-term collector who has not traditionally been a platinum collector (or even known about them), and about whom speculation abounds.
I am also a professional historian and dealer in historical artifacts, with an emphasis on the pioneer American space program (www.spacerelics.com).
I have been a coin collector for roughly 35 years, and despite knowing nothing about platinum before a few months ago, I was automatically drawn to the 2006 - 2008 "Foundations" series of one-ounce "Burnished Uncirculateds" once I saw the initial mintage figures!
I prefer the one ounce size given both the ease of viewing the design, and the impressive "presence" and heft of the largest coin as opposed to the tiny fractionals.
Simply put, if you could only acquire one gold coin from the 1915 Pan-Pacific series, would you take the $2.50 size or the $50.00 size (independent of price, of course). Most folks would be drawn to the largest and most impressive coin, as I think most collectors would be.
What I would like is to have each of the three "Foundations" one-ounce coins displayed with their reverse sides facing up, in a PCGS or NGC three-coin holder and in gem condition.
The set label would also list each of the three coin's remarkably low modern mintage figures.
Imagine showing that encapsulated three-coin set to a teenager collecting State Quarters, and who is used to seeing mintages in the millions, instead of a few thousand. Not to mention seeing three large one-ounce platinum coins with stunning designs side by side.
Further, talk about an encapsulated PCGS or NGC set with some "heft" to it, and thrilling a young collector with the possibilities once they become adults and have more disposable income!
Again, I am not a serious platinum collector, and as such I simply want the "short 3-year set" that comprises the lowest platinum mintages ever produced to numismatically represent the metal.
Lowest mintages also mean uncirculated and not proof coins, as they are FAR rarer the the proofs.
In general with post-1950 moderns, I also think that a 5,000 mintage figure level will be an important dividing line separating "rare" from "common" modern coins, regardless of type.
It is just a nice low "round number" that feels "right" to me in this regard.
I also agree with you regarding "type" Vs. "date and mintmark" in the modern series ... too many issues, as opposed to a few classic type designs of "key" mintage status.
Again, I discovered the platinum series by accident, but I am sure glad that I did!
There is nothing like being able to acquire a double-eagle sized coin made of pure platinum, bearing a beautiful design, in gem condition, and struck to the tune of only a few thousand!
I also agree with others that once the official mintage figures are posted in the "Red Book", then all bets are off price-wise (suggestive of big upward price movement over time).
This, then, is an opinion from a long-time coin collector (and perhaps indicative of how the larger collector community might now react IF they were currently aware of these coins).
Again, I think that awareness will grow via publication in the Red Book of final mintage figures, along with the myrid of articles on the platinum series that will undoubtly appear in the future.
I look forward to everyones thoughts and insights to my "outsider" coin collecting perspective!
Thank you!
David Frohman, President Peachstate Historical Consulting, Inc.
Good Luck with that, I've seen this for over 30 years and it more of a miss than a hit in the coin hobby. I feel sorry for all the stress that your "investment" is causing you. I invest in a number of things including PM's but this is a "collectors value" play at present and the UNC W's haven't taken off really with a collectors base as is with the proofs (which isn't that big). With these mintages you have a shot but it may take 5 or 10 years to establish a base just like with the proofs, no one wanted them until 2004 which was good for me.
You never know new collectors could pick this series up since it's a fairly short series at present compared to the proofs but your just going to have
ttown, I'm not stressed about my investing in platinum. I'm not looking for an overnight double, and since I've been buying Plats now for about 10 years, I'm comfortable with the volatility. I've been a coin collector for about 45 years, and I like the American Eagle Series for a variety of reasons.
I'm well over 5% in Plats, and I frankly don't adhere to the conventional wisdom concerning pms in a portfolio. I've lost maybe 60% in my platinum holdings recently, if you consider $2,500 platinum to have been sustainable, which it wasn't, of course. At the same time, I avoided a 40% to 45% loss in stocks by getting totally out of them several months ago.
Regarding the 2008 Plats, both Proof and "W" Uncs - the mintages are always interesting to track in hopes of a big score, but if that's your driving motivation, I agree that you could have a very long wait. I buy Plats because I like them, and because I can't think of many better places to park my money at the present time, all things considered.
If the Mint ever settles down and starts following a more reasonable approach to the Plat Series, then I'm in a good position to become a collector. To date, it's all speculation because that's what the Mint promotes. I'd be surprised to hear you say that you only collect Plats because of a numismatic attraction. Regards, jmski
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
NYCousel - A collector I know got excited about the $25 Platinums after reading some informative posts here a week or so ago. He ran out and ordered (20) coins with "marching orders" for me to sell them for around "$500"/coin ASAP so he could pay his credit card in time. The coins should arrive here in a day or two. The majority of these coins will obviously be going back to this collector now (I highly doubt anyone will be buying them for $500/coin at this point) and, then, back to the mint. There are many other folks in the exact position of this collector I suspect as well. As I mentioned in a previous post, IMHO, the US Mint INVITES this type of speculation by their unusually generous 30 day return privilege. But, that is entirely their call.
I would not be too surprised to see HIGH returns deducted from the unofficial mintage figures in the year(s) ahead. And, as you suggest, those with very strong stomachs might do better than it presently appears possible once all of the returns are calculated in 1-2 years - no guarantees though of that of course.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I would not be too surprised to see HIGH returns deducted from the unofficial mintage figures in the year(s) ahead. And, as you suggest, those with very strong stomachs might do better than it presently appears possible once all of the returns are calculated in 1-2 years - no guarantees though of that of course.
In spite of the returns, the varying reports of high and low mintages and in spite of the drastically fluctuating prices and on-again, off-again sales by the Mint, I have a hunch that both the Proof and "W" Uncs will do just fine in the long run.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
would not be too surprised to see HIGH returns deducted from the unofficial mintage figures in the year(s) ahead.
Wondercoin, you're a big player in the market, and I certainly your perspective and advice on this board.
I agree, based on the posts of some folks here, yesterday and today, it seems like there are certainly some who saw the $25 sales at a total of 3,168 (including sets) and think that's a reason to exit, apparently believing that all is lost if the 2008 w numbers are higher than 2006 numbers.
I agree that as mintages get higher and higher, they start to track bullion. But in my opinion, the reported sales of 3,168 should not have people running for the exits just yet. Since we don't have hard numbers or facts, we are forced to make educated guesses based on best available information. I'm not going to question the accuracy of the $25 sales figures-- they are what they are, and while we know from history they have been proven incorrect in the past, they are the best available information at this point. So let's start with that number. We know that recent set sales were pegged at 600. We have a rumor, which may or may not be true, that total sets available would be something around 1,000. If true, there should be 400 or so sets remaining. Add the 400 to 3168, and we're at 3,600. Now, the $25 is not shown as "not available", which we believe based on our collective experience would indicate a permanent close on sales. Instead, the $25 is shown as available as of 11/13, a date that is changing and being pushed back. We know that in the past, this happened and those open orders were never filed.
2007 w sales were 3,829, with issue prices of $400 to $436.
If the sales numbers on 2008s are right, they could come in someplace around 2007, except this time with an issue price of $320.
2007 w $25 sales on ebay are weaker than 2006.
ebay sales show a blue label PCGS MS70 sold for $450 Oct. 26 (at a time when 2008s were available and expected to have a lower mintage). there's a blue label MS69 that sold for $425 Oct. 15 (before 2008s went back on sale, when 2007s were expected to place 3rd - 2008 sales at the time amounting to only 651, and 2006s at 2,676). I doubt very much than any speculators were in the market for 2007s.
Even if the numbers are 3,800 to 4,000 these coins might not be home runs, but there is some reason to believe that they will be able to maintain a range of $320 to $400.
Meanwhile, for the first time in a couple of years, platinum is FALLING to levels where collectors can actually afford it again. If the Mint continues to make platinum coins, we could see more collectors enter the market -- historically sales dropped as platinum rose, and it seems reasonable to believe that as platinum falls, sales will increase (without getting into the other factors, like the economy, at play). It also seems possible that as platinum issue prices have almost reached parity with gold (a four coin set of unc gold is $2040), some gold collectors could cross over to platinum. An increase in demand would also help these coins retain value.
Anyway, I would certainly advise against returning $10 coins. They are no longer available, and a couple of hundred more set sales aren't going to change the fact that they are well under 2007 numbers. On $25 coins, I can understand if people looking for a quick flip to $500 instead decide to return. If there are a lot of returns and sales cool off from here, that certainly wouldn't hurt those who decide to wait things out.
I suggest that everyone who bought more of these "common" $10 unc "w" platinum eagles than they need return them right away so when they come back up for sale I can buy some more.
NYC - Of course, we are not talking about the $10 coins, which are, IMHO (and the opinion of Eric), just fine to hold on to at this point. My comment was on $25 coins AND THE REASON TO CONSIDER RETURNING THEM (TO MANY ASSESSING THINGS) IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU (NYC) SAID A FEW DAYS AGO....
namely, the 4 pc set is better VALUE when you consider that you get a "$300" $10 coin and a $350 $25 coin (OK - let's reduce it from your prior analysis of "$500") as part of the $2,220 deal. That leaves $1,570 on the $50 and $100 coins - or a touch under $1,050/oz to speculate on those 2 other coins (now the lowest mintage coins ever). I can see that NYC. Of course, platinum spot could crash as a metal and buyers of these sets could be "wiped out" as well - but enough of the disclosures....
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
IMO I think it is important to look at a modern coin as part of a series, not as an individual coin unless it is truly unique. So when looking at a coin in a series you have to consider the other coins and how they are priced. By ranking the coins according to mintage you get an idea of what their future potential holds.
Now I know the total mintages of these coins are low, very low, historic low for moderns. However why are they so low? High bullion prices, coin designs, marketing, competition.
Someone mentioned the proof gold eagles, that is a good example of competition, as they introduced the buffalo gold eagle fractionals this year and what happened? Lower sales.
The platinum W's do compete with the regular bullion strikes, sure the regular plats have the same design each year and the only change is the date, but people are collecting them. If the mint ended the plat regular bullion coins these collector coins would skyrocket. Any chance of that happening? Unlikely IMO.
Coin design we got the three year series and had the earlier eagle series, I don't read anything about a set of eagle series coins ever. So as a complete set of that one never materialized, as of now anyways [or so I think].
Future coins designs seem to be about the constitution, not something people are going to melt the mint website down with orders over. I have read the future yearly themes and couldn't recite them and doubt anyone else could, even the person that wrote them. So I think the current low sales will continue and that I wish wasn't the case.
Now in all this bleakness eventually, some year, something will change perception. How long that takes I have no idea, maybe a coin article, an important auction, an early closure of sales, could be anything. But I believe in these coins long-term. Panicking over coins under 5000? Hardly.
However the longer a series goes the harder it becomes to collect generally at these high prices. The post I did about the premiums reflects that and I am not sure that will change much.
Now let's imagine for a moment that instead of the constitution design for 2009 we got the buffalo design change and the gold series stayed the same. Would sales have increased? I think they would have, by quite a bit.
Maybe way out after the constitution design the design after that will be the one to spur these coins to the levels they deserve. It would seem obvious that if sales for future years increased greatly then these lowest mintage years would become far more valuable. I think the worst thing though is year after year of tiny mintage years with the hope that some year it changes. I would rather see higher sales next year and the premium awarded to these coins they deserve. I just have my doubts over all of this, thus I am not gungho and full-speed ahead as though its all roses for the future.
I do want to say one thing though positive about the 1/4 ounce coins. Assuming [a big assumption here that may not happen] the mint did cancel the 1/10 ounce coins starting 2009 then that may cement these three years as the low for a very long time as the 1/10 collectors with have to shift into the 1/4 size. Starting next year the 1/4 would assume the place of the 1/10 this year as the "cheap" entry-level coins. Some may not shift but enough will to raise the sales and mintages as we know the mint loves to sell these coins.
Anyway this post is entire speculation, please don't use it as advice to buy or sell coins. Nobody knows the future, however I think the value of the 2006 W UNC coins has gone up and if they cancel the 1/10 the 1/10 coins have gone up too, only until the final numbers are in though can we be certain.
This post might be a little off topic but I have a question about dealing with the mint. I placed an order for some of the W unc Plat sets last week. The order is still on hold, so I called Citibank, they said the charge should go through fine, so I called the mint. The customer service rep said my order is on a Headquarters hold, and that they recently mailed me a letter with instructions on how to get the hold removed. I'm assuming this is an antifraud inititive by the mint. I've placed several orders in similar amounts in past years. Has anyone else experienced this? It just seems kinda strange, but I'll do what I have to do to get my sets.
<< <i>This post might be a little off topic but I have a question about dealing with the mint. I placed an order for some of the W unc Plat sets last week. The order is still on hold, so I called Citibank, they said the charge should go through fine, so I called the mint. The customer service rep said my order is on a Headquarters hold, and that they recently mailed me a letter with instructions on how to get the hold removed. I'm assuming this is an antifraud inititive by the mint. I've placed several orders in similar amounts in past years. Has anyone else experienced this? It just seems kinda strange, but I'll do what I have to do to get my sets.
Thanks
Ed >>
Strange, I just had a Mint charge of several $thousand to my Citi Premier Pass card without question.
<< <i>This post might be a little off topic but I have a question about dealing with the mint. I placed an order for some of the W unc Plat sets last week. The order is still on hold, so I called Citibank, they said the charge should go through fine, so I called the mint. The customer service rep said my order is on a Headquarters hold, and that they recently mailed me a letter with instructions on how to get the hold removed. I'm assuming this is an antifraud inititive by the mint. I've placed several orders in similar amounts in past years. Has anyone else experienced this? It just seems kinda strange, but I'll do what I have to do to get my sets.
Thanks
Ed >>
They do that when your shipping and billing addresses are different.
Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent. San Diego, CA
Thanks for the reply, but it's not a problem with the Citi Card, I called citi and they said the mint has not attempted to charge the card, so it has something to do with the mint.
<< <i>This post might be a little off topic but I have a question about dealing with the mint. I placed an order for some of the W unc Plat sets last week. The order is still on hold, so I called Citibank, they said the charge should go through fine, so I called the mint. The customer service rep said my order is on a Headquarters hold, and that they recently mailed me a letter with instructions on how to get the hold removed. I'm assuming this is an antifraud inititive by the mint. I've placed several orders in similar amounts in past years. Has anyone else experienced this? It just seems kinda strange, but I'll do what I have to do to get my sets.
Thanks
Ed >>
They do that when your shipping and billing addresses are different. >>
Lala,
This is probably the problem. I have all my coins shipped to my work address, which is where this credit card bills gets mailed to also. However we moved our office since my last mint order, so it probably triggered some sort of fraud alert in the mint's system. Thanks for the insight.
I'll just have to wait for the mint's letter and then send them whatever thay need so I can get my coins.
<< <i>NYC - Of course, we are not talking about the $10 coins, which are, IMHO (and the opinion of Eric), just fine to hold on to at this point. My comment was on $25 coins AND THE REASON TO CONSIDER RETURNING THEM (TO MANY ASSESSING THINGS) IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU (NYC) SAID A FEW DAYS AGO....
namely, the 4 pc set is better VALUE when you consider that you get a "$300" $10 coin and a $350 $25 coin (OK - let's reduce it from your prior analysis of "$500") as part of the $2,220 deal. That leaves $1,570 on the $50 and $100 coins - or a touch under $1,050/oz to speculate on those 2 other coins (now the lowest mintage coins ever). I can see that NYC. Of course, platinum spot could crash as a metal and buyers of these sets could be "wiped out" as well - but enough of the disclosures....
Wondercoin >>
The only question that I have about this is how a flipper would sell the set instead of the single coin. If you send them to PCGS (or another TPG) and heve them certified, then it might be easier to break up the set but as a raw coin, many buyers would want the Mint packaging. I'm sure that Wondercoin has sold many more of these than I have, but I know that it is easier to sell lower priced coins (at least on eBay).
I'd keep playing. I don't think the heavy stuff will be coming down for quite a while!
Ask this guy, he's doing OK without the box. No Box
$499-- although that closed Oct. 22, before we received the most recent sales numbers. Not bad for a coin that should have still been available from the Mint for $320.
FYI, these only really sold for a couple days. Seems like 1 buyer made all the purchases. After that, flipper city, plenty of listings of 10 available for a month, and no buyers.....
FYI, these only really sold for a couple days. Seems like 1 buyer made all the purchases. After that, flipper city, plenty of listings of 10 available for a month, and no buyers.....
everyone has another 25 or so days left to let the numbers correct themselves - or return your coins.
IMO, the latest sales numbers appear to be skewed.
$10's sold after sellout. $25's selling 1500+ coins after backorder status.
Twilight Zone material.
I know that several posters are trying to support these numbers with dissertations on the subject.......and I can say that those posts aren't all that bad.
But, in my opinion, let's wait for the good numbers instead of talking about garbage that was released this week.
If we get week after week confirmation of the sales of the 1/10 and 1/4, it becomes more believable. Until then, sit back and wait for more data.
<< <i>FYI, these only really sold for a couple days. Seems like 1 buyer made all the purchases. After that, flipper city, plenty of listings of 10 available for a month, and no buyers.....
thanks for sharing this important information. >>
always willing to share casual observations...nunc pro tunc...Also regarding your reference above "Paypal as an option?", I think that's the only option for the time being, no more checks or money orders, with penalties beginning January 2009...
In my case my 10 sets are going back, I will give it a week and that is as far as I am going with my 20k. To those of you pumping this product, I will wish the best of luck. Hopefully you will be rewarded in the end... The way I am looking at this, if the economy continues to deteriorate, there will be less people spending money on coins and we will see all low sales records on this platinum coins on years to come. Lets not even discuss if platinum continues to deteriorate the 2008 will be repriced 2 to 300 under the current price.
Comments
<< <i>There is only one thing to say... Bend over and grab your ankles...the Mint is screwing everyone once again!
How is that? Nobody held a gun to my head and forced me to buy.
You roll the dice, you take your chances.
Actually I think the mint is about to take a screwing with all of the returns that are about to come back.
Give me a call today. Some of us are going to get together and find out if the quarter oz data point is just another typo.
And Groht about all I ever hear out of you is an endless rant about what dogs the mint and its employees are. They are a large public outfit that unlike many government programs does in fact try to respond to questions they are asked. I have found that I am much better reading what they say about themselves watching the data and thinking about a situation from a longer term perspective. If anyone gets the shaft its the mint with the more than gracious 30 day return policy.
Ericj96
As a prime example, do they know that they are making things extremely difficult for true collectors when they issue so many different variations of these expensive platinum coins, not to mention the expensive gold coins and variations thereof?
Or, do they care more about sales and flippers?
It's an honest question, and I wondered if you've ever been party to a discussion relating to this. Regards, jmski
I knew it would happen.
I collect the platinum coins, but I collect only the 1/10 oz coins, so I can afford to purchase many coins thoughtout the year.....
That's ridiculous. The Mint isn't screwing anyone, the Mint doesn't care about any of us or take us into account in any decision it makes.
The reaction to the latest sales figures is similarly ridiculous.
Follow the posts. Sales reopened. People saw opportunity. There were rumors that the $25s would go dark and that the numbers might be extremely favorable. There were rumors that the sets were limited to 1,000. We started speculating on final figures across the board based on these rumors.
So what's happened? The sales figures show that the rumors about the mintages of $25 coins were apparently false. Projecting based on current sales figures, I expect that $25 coins could end up with mintages of about 4,000 coins instead of 2,500. $10 coin numbers look like they'll end up a few hundred coins above 2006 numbers. The larger coins are still well under 2006 numbers, maybe they'll reach them, maybe not.
The reason that they are at these mintages is because there are so many variations. I am convinced that the series would be much more coherent (and attainable) without so many variations. And I also maintain that a more coherent series would bring in more collectors. JMO.
I knew it would happen.
But in some cases, their decisions are made by Congress (it is a law) so there is noting they can do. One thing that I did read was that the Mint was trying to fill some bullion orders for fractional platinum but they had a limited number of those as well.
Some winners take a while to develop, others happen within the 30 day return window. At least the downside here is better than some stocks which go bankrupt and are completely worthless. These coins are still worth their weight in platinum.
The reaction to the latest sales figures is similarly ridiculous.
Follow the posts. Sales reopened. People saw opportunity. There were rumors that the $25s would go dark and that the numbers might be extremely favorable. There were rumors that the sets were limited to 1,000. We started speculating on final figures across the board based on these rumors.
That is exactly what I'm talking about. Whether it is by design or accidental, the Mint is fomenting speculation. Much of it is caused by a lack of meaningful communication. Some of it is due to unforeseen market changes. And in my opinion, some of it is because the Mint doesn't particularly think about how they impact their regular customers.
I knew it would happen.
I don't understand why people are acting as if the sky is falling.
Christ, even WITH a mintage of 4,000 (and we're several hundred sales away from that), the $25 coins have a MELT value of about $200 right now. They're coins with a likely mintage UNDER the Jackie Robinson $5 gold, available for $320 -- $120 over melt. This is NOT a tragedy for us.
Will they be $1,000 coins? Certainly not right away. No one is going to triple their money on these overnight. But they are STILL coins with crazy low mintages, available at a very reasonable price. On top of numismatic potential, they have additional potential upside as bullion. A few months ago, these would be worth $500 just a melt. I do not expect we'll see platinum at that level 2 months from now, but I also don't expect that platinum will become worthless, or will never go above $800 an ounce again.
Only 2 things matter
There are only TWO things that matter for secondary market price on these coins. Bullion value and collector demand.
Bullion value to establish the base price -- the absolute floor for these coins is melt. Melt right now is $200. It could go to $150. That doesn't mean coins will be available for that, it's just the floor for the market. If everyone decided not to collect lincoln cents any more, the floor for a 1955 doubled die cent would be its value as a small piece of copper.
Collector demand is really the key to the value of this coin. Now, we ALL know that these coins have not caught fire with collectors since they became available in 2006. But the mintages are UNDER 5,000. We don't need every silver Eagle collector out there to be interested in platinum to have demand exceed supply.
Heck, there are people paying $500 for 2008 American Eagles with mintages that FAR exceed whatever the 2008 w $25 platinums will be, because it has a different "U" in United. That's a coin with a melt value of about $10. Why do they do it? Because there are more American Eagle collectors than available coins.
What platinum coins need is NOT a bunch of nervous, ultra sensitive hand-wringing collectors who run for the exits at mintages under 5,000.
There may only be a few of us now, but these are NOT 2 cent pieces, these are not obsolete copper coins that have no relevance. These are modern coins, with good designs, made from a metal that is rarer than gold. I believe that much of the reason they are not widely collected is NOT because they have been considered and rejected by the hobby, but because of bad marketing and lack of p.r. These coins have suffered because of lack of press. Yeah, there were a few articles in 2006, because the numbers simply couldn't be ignored. What happened? 2007 numbers were higher-- even though issue prices went up, were higher than they are currently.
2008 IS an opportunity. Issue prices haven't been this low since 2004 -- a time when the "w" unc. wasn't even offered. 2008 proofs are likely to be lower-- probably much lower-- than 2004 proofs.
2008 w coins might not end up lower than 2006 w across the board, but seriously, the ONLY reason 2008s even stood a chance of being lower than 2006 to begin with had NOTHING to do with collector demand, it had to do with the fact that the Mint started the year with VERY high issue prices (double what they are now- yet still managed to sell 25% of 2006 mintages at that price) and then the Mint killed sales for 3 months, without warning. The 2008s were frozen at super low numbers, but that was NOT a reflection of demand, only the result of factors that were completely out of our control.
The case for 2008s
We should be focused on building the collector base for platinums, not running around like scared children. Platinums are more affordable now than they have been in years. The issue prices for platinum coins are very close to the issue price for gold. Platinums are among the rarest coins we've seen issued in our lifetime; several coins have numbers far lower than some the hottest coins in recent memory - the 1995 w silver eagle, the 2000 bimetallic congressional $10, the 1997 $5 Jackie Robinson gold, etc. There were more 1936 proof sets (3837) made than 2006 w coins, and far more 1937 proof sets (5542) than the 2008 ws will end up at.
If a few on this board want to return their $25 coins because they don't see upside in spending $320 for a coin with a $200 melt value with reported sales of 3,200, I'm not going to try to talk them out of it. Far from it, I encourage them to do so. If these coins don't speak to you, if they don't sell themselves, return them. Return your $25 coins. Return your sets. Return your $10 coins. I fully support your decision to return whatever you feel you can't afford.
That can only benefit me. If sales numbers go down, if mintages are lower as a result, it only makes my coins stronger. Conversely, if your returns gives new collectors the chance to obtain these coins at issue price, that also benefits me.
For those with deeper pockets, stronger stomachs, cooler heads, or who just haven't lost faith... we should all be trying to more actively promote the hobby. There are not many platinum collectors right now; probably fewer than 5,000 for proofs and unc-w combined. In 1997, there were a lot of platinum proofs sold. The numbers have declined over time, as platinum increased in value and people turned elsewhere. The number of collectors is probably as low now as it's ever been.
There are a handful of posters who haunt these boards who consider modern coins a waste of time, and enjoy making snarky comments about "widgets" and other silly put-downs. I don't know what drives their opinion, or what compels them to spend so much time paying attention to something they claim to have no interest in, but I do know this: They are wrong.
We should be playing offense, not defense
Platinums have a lot going for them. These coins deserve a wider base; the changing reverses makes them more interesting than the silver and gold bullion coins, they are more like commemoratives than bullion coins. They are largely available at little premium to melt. There are a number of denominations to chose from; 1 oz coins might be out of your budget, but the 1/10 and 1/4 oz coins are certainly relatively affordable. We should all be promoting the hobby and building the collector base, getting the word out about the reasons people should want to collect these coins instead of, or at least in addition to, 50 state quarters.
Platinums may not be widely collected today, but they are not dusty two cent coppers or three cent nickels. No offense, but platinums are not obsolete coins from the dustbins of history. We don't need a lot of new blood to turn things around; even a few hundred new collectors would invigorate the hobby. Write to the publications you subscribe to. Get the word out. Share your interest with other coin collectors. Wave your platinum flag. Platinums are not just moderns, they are the best of what moderns have to offer.
<< <i>Here is the difference between 2006 and 2008, the important numbers.
1 1689 less
1/2 755 less
1/4 492 more
1/10 47 more
The 1/10 sold out, the 1/4 in backorder, the 1/2 and 1 still open.
Now I am not sure how many sets they did, but if they ran off this many 1/10 and 1/4 then I wouldn't be surprised to see even 2500 4 coin sets. I hope not but anything is possible. My wish is they are done or 1500 max, but maybe the mint overestimated demand, who knows?
Anyway the spread from the 2008 sales to the 2007 for the 1/4 and 1/10 is this:
1/4 732
1/10 2192
This is the leaway in 4 coin set sales to surpass 2007 sales. If they have 732 more sets then the 1/4 will be the highest of the three years, 2192 and the 1/10 will be.
Anyway I agree it is time to wait and rest. Too much info too quick. I also ran numbers on the proof if anyone is interested and at the current rate we should see a resolution on the 1/10 and 1/4 within two months on how those fair compared to the lowest. For now I am on hold too.
How is 2008-W Gold measuring up?
Investing is my hobby. And my investments involve coins.
I knew it would happen.
I agree with all you say, but regarding the line above, can we please wait until all the 2008s go dark???
Maybe the Mint scheduled a minting party for 11/12, to crank out 500 more $25s?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Please don't use the word "investment" for any hobby.
Investing is my hobby. And my investments involve coins.
Good Luck with that, I've seen this for over 30 years and it more of a miss than a hit in the coin hobby. I feel sorry for all the stress that your "investment" is causing you. I invest in a number of things including PM's but this is a "collectors value" play at present and the UNC W's haven't taken off really with a collectors base as is with the proofs (which isn't that big). With these mintages you have a shot but it may take 5 or 10 years to establish a base just like with the proofs, no one wanted them until 2004 which was good for me.
You never know new collectors could pick this series up since it's a fairly short series at present compared to the proofs but your just going to have to put your money down and see, I sure hope this isn't where all your investment money is going if that's your plan it sure shouldn't be over 5%. JMO
<< <i>On the $25 platinum, the "Product will be available for shipping" date is showing on my computer as 11/13/2008. Wasn't it 11/12/2008 yesterday? >>
That's what happened in 06. You ordered and got a backorder date and as it approached they extended it several times. I guess they are just waiting for all you guys returns. In the end I didn't get my 1/2 UNC W that was on BO.
2008 coins became available May 5th for the proofs and July 1 for the Unc. 'w'.
That would mean the sets will be available, for the Unc., until July 2009, the proofs until May 2009. If history holds and no sell out.
Lets try something different here
Are these coins with anything over melt, nothing is ever talked about in regards to these coins.....
Are only of the gold eagle coins really worth anything more then melt? I know a few of them from the late 88's have a bit of a premium.....
My 1/10 oz golf proofs, what is peoples opinion on these? Waste of time with no future, good potential?
<< <i>The mint ususally keeps plats available, minus a sell out, until the next years coins come out.
2008 coins became available May 5th for the proofs and July 1 for the Unc. 'w'.
That would mean the sets will be available, for the Unc., until July 2009, the proofs until May 2009. If history holds and no sell out. >>
Actually that isn't the case. If they don't sell out that is true but in this case they either keep on making them or it's a sell out like 06. They can't make this coin after the last day of December and with the old hags and all the offerings along with prep work for next year it's doubtful they will run another batch. The holiday are coming and mint employees take vacations around that time too. JMO
If that is happening again, it's possible that the reported sales numbers exceed the actual coins available.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I think that's true for the Proofs, but not the Uncs. My understanding is that the Uncs are sold until a sellout or until Dec. 31st, whichever comes first. I could be wrong, of course.
Does anyone know when the 2007-W Uncs were discontinued?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Please don't use the word "investment" for any hobby. If your only investing and not enjoying the coins you may well be disappointed. >>
I agree with you ttown.
With coins I do both: I collect them and I invest in some of them. In many cases I use profits from the investments (when they make a profit) to buy the coins I want to collect.
My previous post was more directed to those who are investing in the 2008-w platinum issue because I get the sense that some are starting to panic about the sales figures that were posted. I'm not trying to give investment advice because I've been wrong many times, but I like to look at the pros and cons when making a decision about these.
nycounsel has done a nice job of explaining the pros and cons on these coins.
<< <i>W gold coins
Are these coins with anything over melt, nothing is ever talked about in regards to these coins.....
Are only of the gold eagle coins really worth anything more then melt? I know a few of them from the late 88's have a bit of a premium.....
My 1/10 oz golf proofs, what is peoples opinion on these? Waste of time with no future, good potential? >>
I'm also surprised these aren't even on the radar. Before the unc-W golds, I loosely collected the regular bullion issue gold eagles and assumed that collector base would move into the unc-ws. I don't think that has happened--or the bullion eagle collector base has lost much of its membership. In any case, the unc-w gold eagles seem to be going nowhere fast. Like the plats, I think they will eventually become popular, but that could be decades down the road.
Regarding proofs, I don't see ANY potential for proof gold eagles now or in the future. Just too many of them. All you have to do is look at the valuation of the unc versus proof gold commemoratives of recent years to see that. Just my opinion.
October 29, 2008
Hello Everyone!
Given the latest concern regarding the latest sales numbers, my original post from the
other day be worth carefully re-reading now:
Regards,
David
(253) 851-0251
ORIGINAL POST:
Let me first say that I am the symbolic long-term collector who has not traditionally been
a platinum collector (or even known about them), and about whom speculation abounds.
I am also a professional historian and dealer in historical artifacts, with an emphasis on
the pioneer American space program (www.spacerelics.com).
I have been a coin collector for roughly 35 years, and despite knowing nothing about platinum
before a few months ago, I was automatically drawn to the 2006 - 2008 "Foundations"
series of one-ounce "Burnished Uncirculateds" once I saw the initial mintage figures!
I prefer the one ounce size given both the ease of viewing the design, and the impressive
"presence" and heft of the largest coin as opposed to the tiny fractionals.
Simply put, if you could only acquire one gold coin from the 1915 Pan-Pacific series, would
you take the $2.50 size or the $50.00 size (independent of price, of course). Most folks
would be drawn to the largest and most impressive coin, as I think most collectors would be.
What I would like is to have each of the three "Foundations" one-ounce coins displayed with
their reverse sides facing up, in a PCGS or NGC three-coin holder and in gem condition.
The set label would also list each of the three coin's remarkably low modern mintage figures.
Imagine showing that encapsulated three-coin set to a teenager collecting State Quarters,
and who is used to seeing mintages in the millions, instead of a few thousand. Not to
mention seeing three large one-ounce platinum coins with stunning designs side by side.
Further, talk about an encapsulated PCGS or NGC set with some "heft" to it, and thrilling a young
collector with the possibilities once they become adults and have more disposable income!
Again, I am not a serious platinum collector, and as such I simply want the "short 3-year set"
that comprises the lowest platinum mintages ever produced to numismatically represent the metal.
Lowest mintages also mean uncirculated and not proof coins, as they are FAR rarer the the proofs.
In general with post-1950 moderns, I also think that a 5,000 mintage figure level will be an
important dividing line separating "rare" from "common" modern coins, regardless of type.
It is just a nice low "round number" that feels "right" to me in this regard.
I also agree with you regarding "type" Vs. "date and mintmark" in the modern series ...
too many issues, as opposed to a few classic type designs of "key" mintage status.
Again, I discovered the platinum series by accident, but I am sure glad that I did!
There is nothing like being able to acquire a double-eagle sized coin made of pure platinum,
bearing a beautiful design, in gem condition, and struck to the tune of only a few thousand!
I also agree with others that once the official mintage figures are posted in the "Red Book",
then all bets are off price-wise (suggestive of big upward price movement over time).
This, then, is an opinion from a long-time coin collector (and perhaps indicative of how the
larger collector community might now react IF they were currently aware of these coins).
Again, I think that awareness will grow via publication in the Red Book of final mintage figures,
along with the myrid of articles on the platinum series that will undoubtly appear in the future.
I look forward to everyones thoughts and insights to my "outsider" coin collecting perspective!
Thank you!
David Frohman, President
Peachstate Historical Consulting, Inc.
(253) 851-0251
www.spacerelics.com >>
$150 bucks for the 2008 coin, might be spent more wisely elsewhere.....
You never know new collectors could pick this series up since it's a fairly short series at present compared to the proofs but your just going to have
ttown, I'm not stressed about my investing in platinum. I'm not looking for an overnight double, and since I've been buying Plats now for about 10 years, I'm comfortable with the volatility. I've been a coin collector for about 45 years, and I like the American Eagle Series for a variety of reasons.
I'm well over 5% in Plats, and I frankly don't adhere to the conventional wisdom concerning pms in a portfolio. I've lost maybe 60% in my platinum holdings recently, if you consider $2,500 platinum to have been sustainable, which it wasn't, of course. At the same time, I avoided a 40% to 45% loss in stocks by getting totally out of them several months ago.
Regarding the 2008 Plats, both Proof and "W" Uncs - the mintages are always interesting to track in hopes of a big score, but if that's your driving motivation, I agree that you could have a very long wait. I buy Plats because I like them, and because I can't think of many better places to park my money at the present time, all things considered.
If the Mint ever settles down and starts following a more reasonable approach to the Plat Series, then I'm in a good position to become a collector. To date, it's all speculation because that's what the Mint promotes. I'd be surprised to hear you say that you only collect Plats because of a numismatic attraction. Regards, jmski
I knew it would happen.
I would not be too surprised to see HIGH returns deducted from the unofficial mintage figures in the year(s) ahead. And, as you suggest, those with very strong stomachs might do better than it presently appears possible once all of the returns are calculated in 1-2 years - no guarantees though of that of course.
Wondercoin
In spite of the returns, the varying reports of high and low mintages and in spite of the drastically fluctuating prices and on-again, off-again sales by the Mint, I have a hunch that both the Proof and "W" Uncs will do just fine in the long run.
I knew it would happen.
Wondercoin, you're a big player in the market, and I certainly your perspective and advice on this board.
I agree, based on the posts of some folks here, yesterday and today, it seems like there are certainly some who saw the $25 sales at a total of 3,168 (including sets) and think that's a reason to exit, apparently believing that all is lost if the 2008 w numbers are higher than 2006 numbers.
I agree that as mintages get higher and higher, they start to track bullion. But in my opinion, the reported sales of 3,168 should not have people running for the exits just yet. Since we don't have hard numbers or facts, we are forced to make educated guesses based on best available information. I'm not going to question the accuracy of the $25 sales figures-- they are what they are, and while we know from history they have been proven incorrect in the past, they are the best available information at this point. So let's start with that number. We know that recent set sales were pegged at 600. We have a rumor, which may or may not be true, that total sets available would be something around 1,000. If true, there should be 400 or so sets remaining. Add the 400 to 3168, and we're at 3,600. Now, the $25 is not shown as "not available", which we believe based on our collective experience would indicate a permanent close on sales. Instead, the $25 is shown as available as of 11/13, a date that is changing and being pushed back. We know that in the past, this happened and those open orders were never filed.
2007 w sales were 3,829, with issue prices of $400 to $436.
If the sales numbers on 2008s are right, they could come in someplace around 2007, except this time with an issue price of $320.
2007 w $25 sales on ebay are weaker than 2006.
ebay sales show a blue label PCGS MS70 sold for $450 Oct. 26 (at a time when 2008s were available and expected to have a lower mintage). there's a blue label MS69 that sold for $425 Oct. 15 (before 2008s went back on sale, when 2007s were expected to place 3rd - 2008 sales at the time amounting to only 651, and 2006s at 2,676). I doubt very much than any speculators were in the market for 2007s.
Even if the numbers are 3,800 to 4,000 these coins might not be home runs, but there is some reason to believe that they will be able to maintain a range of $320 to $400.
Meanwhile, for the first time in a couple of years, platinum is FALLING to levels where collectors can actually afford it again. If the Mint continues to make platinum coins, we could see more collectors enter the market -- historically sales dropped as platinum rose, and it seems reasonable to believe that as platinum falls, sales will increase (without getting into the other factors, like the economy, at play). It also seems possible that as platinum issue prices have almost reached parity with gold (a four coin set of unc gold is $2040), some gold collectors could cross over to platinum. An increase in demand would also help these coins retain value.
Anyway, I would certainly advise against returning $10 coins. They are no longer available, and a couple of hundred more set sales aren't going to change the fact that they are well under 2007 numbers. On $25 coins, I can understand if people looking for a quick flip to $500 instead decide to return. If there are a lot of returns and sales cool off from here, that certainly wouldn't hurt those who decide to wait things out.
I suggest that everyone who bought more of these "common" $10 unc "w" platinum eagles than they need return them right away so when they come back up for sale I can buy some more.
Ericj96
namely, the 4 pc set is better VALUE when you consider that you get a "$300" $10 coin and a $350 $25 coin (OK - let's reduce it from your prior analysis of "$500") as part of the $2,220 deal. That leaves $1,570 on the $50 and $100 coins - or a touch under $1,050/oz to speculate on those 2 other coins (now the lowest mintage coins ever). I can see that NYC. Of course, platinum spot could crash as a metal and buyers of these sets could be "wiped out" as well - but enough of the disclosures....
Wondercoin
Now I know the total mintages of these coins are low, very low, historic low for moderns. However why are they so low? High bullion prices, coin designs, marketing, competition.
Someone mentioned the proof gold eagles, that is a good example of competition, as they introduced the buffalo gold eagle fractionals this year and what happened? Lower sales.
The platinum W's do compete with the regular bullion strikes, sure the regular plats have the same design each year and the only change is the date, but people are collecting them. If the mint ended the plat regular bullion coins these collector coins would skyrocket. Any chance of that happening? Unlikely IMO.
Coin design we got the three year series and had the earlier eagle series, I don't read anything about a set of eagle series coins ever. So as a complete set of that one never materialized, as of now anyways [or so I think].
Future coins designs seem to be about the constitution, not something people are going to melt the mint website down with orders over. I have read the future yearly themes and couldn't recite them and doubt anyone else could, even the person that wrote them. So I think the current low sales will continue and that I wish wasn't the case.
Now in all this bleakness eventually, some year, something will change perception. How long that takes I have no idea, maybe a coin article, an important auction, an early closure of sales, could be anything. But I believe in these coins long-term. Panicking over coins under 5000? Hardly.
However the longer a series goes the harder it becomes to collect generally at these high prices. The post I did about the premiums reflects that and I am not sure that will change much.
Now let's imagine for a moment that instead of the constitution design for 2009 we got the buffalo design change and the gold series stayed the same. Would sales have increased? I think they would have, by quite a bit.
Maybe way out after the constitution design the design after that will be the one to spur these coins to the levels they deserve. It would seem obvious that if sales for future years increased greatly then these lowest mintage years would become far more valuable. I think the worst thing though is year after year of tiny mintage years with the hope that some year it changes. I would rather see higher sales next year and the premium awarded to these coins they deserve. I just have my doubts over all of this, thus I am not gungho and full-speed ahead as though its all roses for the future.
I do want to say one thing though positive about the 1/4 ounce coins. Assuming [a big assumption here that may not happen] the mint did cancel the 1/10 ounce coins starting 2009 then that may cement these three years as the low for a very long time as the 1/10 collectors with have to shift into the 1/4 size. Starting next year the 1/4 would assume the place of the 1/10 this year as the "cheap" entry-level coins. Some may not shift but enough will to raise the sales and mintages as we know the mint loves to sell these coins.
Anyway this post is entire speculation, please don't use it as advice to buy or sell coins. Nobody knows the future, however I think the value of the 2006 W UNC coins has gone up and if they cancel the 1/10 the 1/10 coins have gone up too, only until the final numbers are in though can we be certain.
Thanks
Ed
<< <i>This post might be a little off topic but I have a question about dealing with the mint. I placed an order for some of the W unc Plat sets last week. The order is still on hold, so I called Citibank, they said the charge should go through fine, so I called the mint. The customer service rep said my order is on a Headquarters hold, and that they recently mailed me a letter with instructions on how to get the hold removed. I'm assuming this is an antifraud inititive by the mint. I've placed several orders in similar amounts in past years. Has anyone else experienced this? It just seems kinda strange, but I'll do what I have to do to get my sets.
Thanks
Ed >>
Strange, I just had a Mint charge of several $thousand to my Citi Premier Pass card without question.
<< <i>This post might be a little off topic but I have a question about dealing with the mint. I placed an order for some of the W unc Plat sets last week. The order is still on hold, so I called Citibank, they said the charge should go through fine, so I called the mint. The customer service rep said my order is on a Headquarters hold, and that they recently mailed me a letter with instructions on how to get the hold removed. I'm assuming this is an antifraud inititive by the mint. I've placed several orders in similar amounts in past years. Has anyone else experienced this? It just seems kinda strange, but I'll do what I have to do to get my sets.
Thanks
Ed >>
They do that when your shipping and billing addresses are different.
San Diego, CA
<< <i>
<< <i>This post might be a little off topic but I have a question about dealing with the mint. I placed an order for some of the W unc Plat sets last week. The order is still on hold, so I called Citibank, they said the charge should go through fine, so I called the mint. The customer service rep said my order is on a Headquarters hold, and that they recently mailed me a letter with instructions on how to get the hold removed. I'm assuming this is an antifraud inititive by the mint. I've placed several orders in similar amounts in past years. Has anyone else experienced this? It just seems kinda strange, but I'll do what I have to do to get my sets.
Thanks
Ed >>
They do that when your shipping and billing addresses are different. >>
Lala,
This is probably the problem. I have all my coins shipped to my work address, which is where this credit card bills gets mailed to also. However we moved our office since my last mint order, so it probably triggered some sort of fraud alert in the mint's system. Thanks for the insight.
I'll just have to wait for the mint's letter and then send them whatever thay need so I can get my coins.
Thanks
Ed
<< <i>NYC - Of course, we are not talking about the $10 coins, which are, IMHO (and the opinion of Eric), just fine to hold on to at this point. My comment was on $25 coins AND THE REASON TO CONSIDER RETURNING THEM (TO MANY ASSESSING THINGS) IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU (NYC) SAID A FEW DAYS AGO....
namely, the 4 pc set is better VALUE when you consider that you get a "$300" $10 coin and a $350 $25 coin (OK - let's reduce it from your prior analysis of "$500") as part of the $2,220 deal. That leaves $1,570 on the $50 and $100 coins - or a touch under $1,050/oz to speculate on those 2 other coins (now the lowest mintage coins ever). I can see that NYC. Of course, platinum spot could crash as a metal and buyers of these sets could be "wiped out" as well - but enough of the disclosures....
Wondercoin >>
The only question that I have about this is how a flipper would sell the set instead of the single coin. If you send them to PCGS (or another TPG) and heve them certified, then it might be easier to break up the set but as a raw coin, many buyers would want the Mint packaging. I'm sure that Wondercoin has sold many more of these than I have, but I know that it is easier to sell lower priced coins (at least on eBay).
$499-- although that closed Oct. 22, before we received the most recent sales numbers. Not bad for a coin that should have still been available from the Mint for $320.
meanwhile, here's someone who's lowballing the $10s.
$240 with free shipping and paypal as an option? After fees and shipping costs, this isn't much of a profit.
With available coupons, this is probably a good deal for anyone who missed out.
thanks for sharing this important information.
everyone has another 25 or so days left to let the numbers correct themselves - or return your coins.
IMO, the latest sales numbers appear to be skewed.
$10's sold after sellout. $25's selling 1500+ coins after backorder status.
Twilight Zone material.
I know that several posters are trying to support these numbers with dissertations on the subject.......and I can say that those posts aren't all that bad.
But, in my opinion, let's wait for the good numbers instead of talking about garbage that was released this week.
If we get week after week confirmation of the sales of the 1/10 and 1/4, it becomes more believable. Until then, sit back and wait for more data.
<< <i>FYI, these only really sold for a couple days. Seems like 1 buyer made all the purchases. After that, flipper city, plenty of listings of 10 available for a month, and no buyers.....
thanks for sharing this important information. >>
always willing to share casual observations...nunc pro tunc...Also regarding your reference above "Paypal as an option?", I think that's the only option for the time being, no more checks or money orders, with penalties beginning January 2009...