Also lets look at the ratios of 07 to known approximated sell out for the 08s
$10 2007.....3000 coins after 15 percent over order margin and returns $10 2008.....2000 coins bfore 15 percent over order so lets net out 2000/1.15 = 1750
THATS A 40-45 PERCENT DROP
$25 2007....1200 coins after 15 percent over order margin $25 2008.....700 coins before 15 percent over order margin so lets net out 700/1.15=600
THATS A 40-50 PERCENT DROP
LETS ASSUME THE YEAR OVER YEAR NUMBERS FOR ALL OPTIONS ARE STABLE................
With the lower platinum price for next year the 2009 sales should rise to perhaps 2003 levels. I can see the 2009 Platinum 1/10 coin selling for $99 from the mint.
okay, starting off, I agree that if the Mint sticks with platinum, and spot stays low, the 2009 prices could be even lower. A lower price would could help drive sales, which would make 2009 a higher mintage. Of course, most of the big buyers would anticipate that, and would steer clear of 2009 purchases in bulk as they will not be as scarce as the 2008s or other 2006s, and would avoid buying quantities of 2009s since they are unlikely to be flippable. Demand would need to come from new entrants to the market. That could happen, but while a few deep pocket buyers probably account for a large percentage of 2008 sales right now, the collector base is built one collector at a time. If the base is built, that's a great thing for the existing coins... if platinum stayed on parity with gold, or lower, and became more widely collected as a result, the low mintages on existing coins would start to pay off. Keys would start to behave like keys, instead of like platinum plus.
Then again, affordable platinum is a double-edged sword; cheap platinum is largely tied to fears about the economy and lower demand for products that use platinum. A bad economy likely translates to lower demand for products, especially things like collectibles.
The problem for the 2008 proof coins left is they are still selling for a huge premium to spot prices. How many people will buy the platinum 4 coin proof sets when there are probably over 2000 left to sell? That amount takes 4 months to sell off in normal sales.
Maybe the mint will pull these coins off again and lower prices on us.
I also agree that even the lowered price is a bit of a hurdle for the 2008 proofs. $2400 for a set is better than $4300, but it's still a lot of money. Still, as supplies of the 2008 uncirculated coins are gobbled up, those who missed out will likely turn to proofs. It might not happen in a weekend, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 2008 proof 1/10 and 1/4 oz coins were the next to go dark. I also think the chance of the Mint repricing the 2008 proofs lower is next to zero. It took a long time for the Mint to adjust the prices, and they probably aren't making any more, so I wouldn't expect another price adjustment.
Even if this was as you think -- 2000 left to sell which would take 4 months to sell of in normal sales -- I'm not sure why that is a problem? I doubt the Mint is trying to liquidate inventory. Past proof issues, including the 2004 proofs, stayed available a few months into 2005. If the 2008 proof supply took 4 months to sell off, I suspect the Mint would be fine with it.
There will be no 1/10 platinum coins produced in 2009 by the Mint.
really?? proof and uncirculated? Now that's an interesting development. I've often thought the Mint would be wise to cut down on the sheer number of denominations it puts out... but cutting the 1/10 isn't the way I'd do it; those are the most affordable for moderate budget collectors.
Taking this as fact, it's a real game-changer. That would also kill the 4 coin sets. If they're going to do that, I think they should eliminate at least one other denomination.
I'd advocate keeping the $25 -- it's affordable and the size is comparable to other widely collected coins. So I'd say eliminate the $50 or $100; I can make arguments for either. The $50 normally has the lowest mintages and is probably the least collected platinum, but the denomination, $50, is where the dollar denomination of the gold coins cap out. Also supporting the $50 is the Mint's using that coin for the 2007 reverse proof set -- seems to show the Mint's support for that denomination.
The $100 is, in my opinion, the best of the coins. It's large and displays the designs nicely. Size-wise, it has the appeal. While it's relatively affordable at current spot, but if we see platinum rebound to $2000+ from here, that would change.
I thought the 2009 coins have already gone through the design process, remember the coin with the four people holding hands?? That is what i thought was for the 2009 coins.
On the 2008 UNC platinum coins it looks like the singles were packaged in the same numbers or slightly higher than 2006 levels. If they did that with the proof then there are thousands of coins left to sell. BTW I have bought a few of the 1/10 so I am in these too and am not pretending to know for sure, but it seems that if they made the full run to 2006 levels with the UNC singles then why wouldn't they have done the same for the proof?
Thats fine if you collect something else. If I collected just proof gold britannias what happens in these fractional gold and platinum series would not matter to me either.
I guess you just felt the need to say something negative.
I would rather the Mint discontinue all of the UNCs and keep all denominations of the PRF. The UNCs in platinum are not that visually appealing to me because of their lower relief and color.
From the new sales numbers it looks like they have sold 668 4 coins sets in UNC, or 215 sets the last week. If they have a total of 1000 to sell that is 332 sets left or a week and a half more if sales stay the same. If it is 2000 sets it is 1332 left to go and 6 weeks left of sales.
The proof plats sold even less, 211 sets last week. If there are 2000 proof 4 coin sets left it will take 9.5 weeks to end them unless sales pick up or there are many less sets to sell.
I wonder, with 668 plat unc sets sold as of 10/21, and Monday's, Tuesday's and Wednesday's orders, has anyone tried to put in a bulk order for the sets to see if they hit the magical limit and get the message "14 sets in stock and reserved, 25 sets back ordered"? That might be a way to indicate how close we are to a sellout. Just an idea.
I DON'T THINK THE MARKET UNDERSTANDS JUST HOW HELPFUL THIS DENOMINATION DELETE WILL BE OR HOW IMPORTANT IT IS.
I agree. It's a game-changer.
On the one hand, it closes the door to the low-budget collector for whom $320 for the $25 (at current price anyway) is out of range. The $10 coin is something of an entry level coin, and I can see a theory being that a small budget collector of $10s might, in improved circumstances, move up to larger coins. Personally I don't expect that would be true, not in significant numbers anyway.
On the other hand, eliminating the $10 refocuses the market to whatever coins remain. Some $10 collectors would leave. Some will be forced to shift up to the next available denomination, presumably the $25.
Those who collect $10s and 4 coin sets would now be collecting a closed series. Whether or not that's desirable; only time will tell. I think modern collectors are primarily drawn to coins that renew each year, not a closed series. Look forward to what comes next, not what already exists. Still, there is a certain amount of built-in delay in the market. The Jackie Robinson $5s were unpopular at issue, stagnant for some time, and then took off once redbook published the mintage numbers and collectors took note. There is a ridiculously long lag for mintage numbers to make the redbook. The 2007 copy I have in front of me doesn't show mintages for 2004 platinums. I can certainly imagine renewed interest in the $10 coins as an affordable, low mintage closed series.
Anyway, Eric, I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.
I think that if the mint stops making the dimes they'll still continue producing a set, a three coin set that is. After all, you'll still have $25s, $50s and $100s. No longer a four coin set but still a set in the end...
Thats fine if you collect something else. If I collected just proof gold britannias what happens in these fractional gold and platinum series would not matter to me either.
I guess you just felt the need to say something negative.
Ericj96 >>
How is that negative? I was just agreeing with you. Maybe I misunderstood?
I DON'T THINK THE MARKET UNDERSTANDS JUST HOW HELPFUL THIS DENOMINATION DELETE WILL BE OR HOW IMPORTANT IT IS.
IF the $10 one-tenth ounce platinum is discontinued after 2008, and IF the other denominations continue to be struck, the $10 coin will become a closed series. I think such a scenario would have both advantages and disadvantages.
On the plus side, $10 sets might attract collectors as a short and completable modern series with attractively low mintages when compared to other recent coins. The bullion and proof sets would consist of 12 coins each and the burnished set would consist of only 3 coins with a common theme and a *very* low mintage.
On the minus side, many collectors on a low budget might want to continue obtaining the new designs as they are issued, and would now have to switch to the 1/4 ounce coins to do so. This may not be a big obstacle as long as the price of platinum remains below the cost of production, but it would become a significant issue if platinum prices recover to $2,000 an ounce or more, especially if the recession lasts for a long time. This could cause some collectors of modest means to stop buying future issues. Some might even sell their plats and switch to more affordable series.
Also on the minus side, the "entry level" coin from the Mint would now be the $25 coin at more than double the price of the $10 coin. I don't think this would be helpful in attracting new collectors to the series. I imagine that many platinum collectors begin with the relatively affordable $10 coin, and then move up to higher denominations if their budget permits. I think that fewer new collectors would be willing to "try out" the series with a $25 coin, especially if the price of platinum recovers.
The $10 "W" plats consistently have the highest mintage of the four coins in each year's set, and presumably the most popularity. In my view, discontinuing this denomination would probably boost the demand for existing $10 coins, but would limit the number of new people willing to collect the series going forward.
<< <i> I DON'T THINK THE MARKET UNDERSTANDS JUST HOW HELPFUL THIS DENOMINATION DELETE WILL BE OR HOW IMPORTANT IT IS.
In my view, discontinuing this denomination would probably boost the demand for existing $10 coins, but would limit the number of new people willing to collect the series going forward. >>
It would have a + effect on the $5 & $10 AGEs or Buffs...
<< <i>I really don't understand the logic behind eliminating the $10 coin unless they get rid of something else while they're at it. >>
I can see dropping the $10 bullion or even the $10 uncs; or both. Since I "hoard" the proof $10, I'd be fine with it! I agree that the Mint has WAY too many offerings (mainly because I have a hard time choosing which to buy), but I believe the low sales #'s are a positive consequence of their product "saturation."
That 2009 reverse is God Awful Ugly!!! Where's the white man?
Maybe they should get rid of the 1/4 and 1/2 ounce platinums since those sell the least and only keep the full ounce and 1/10. Also the mint has way too many gold coins in proof and UNC, only Warren Buffet can keep up with it all.
<< <i>Maybe they should get rid of the 1/4 and 1/2 ounce platinums since those sell the least and only keep the full ounce and 1/10. Also the mint has way too many gold coins in proof and UNC, only Warren Buffet can keep up with it all. >>
Actually Warren is down $9.6 Billion right now, so I'd bet he's not keeping up with the gold coins either!
I'd keep playing. I don't think the heavy stuff will be coming down for quite a while!
I looked back to see how late they suspended the 2007 proof coins and it was Friday, February 15, 2008, early this year.
"Platinum at All Time High, Mint Suspends Platinum Eagles
The US Mint has once again suspended sales of platinum products in response to the latest rise. The Burnished Platinum Eagles had only been on sale for 4 days last week before being pulled. The Proof Platinum Eagles and 10th Anniversary Platinum Eagle Set later followed. The one platinum product still for sale is the 1/10 ounce Proof Platinum Eagle for $269.95."
So if platinum keeps dropping they may still pull the 2008 and have to reprice again perhaps.
<< <i>So if platinum keeps dropping they may still pull the 2008 and have to reprice again perhaps. >>
Nobody has really said too much about it, but what was the deal with the Federal Register? The Mint is required to post price changes one week prior to the change. However, the first time this latest change was posted was 10/17, but was backdated as 10/10. Hmmmmm... Any ideas other than, "Because they can"???
And the price of paper platinum just keeps droping....droping....droping.. into the $700 range now. The sales of plats should tail-off as well. It will be a very interesting year to look back on in the future.
Anyone have any guesses on how many 1/10 proof platinum they made?
4000 1/10 proof singles + 3000 4 coin sets ties the 2004 coins. Right now they are at:
1520 1/10 proof singles + 970 4 coins sets for a total of 2490 in sales.
Since they made 2000 1/10 uncirculated platinum coin singles and have sold out, maybe they made 3500 of the 1/10 platinum proof singles.
The 4 coins sets maybe they made 2500 of those for a total of 6000 1/10 coins. That would still be 1000 coins below the 2004 coins but not very much below, but is only a guess.
I wonder what the chances are they made more than the 2004 totals?
I think that both the proofs and uncs are all time low mintages. My Friends, this is a no-brainer of historic proportions. The best returns (of what's now available) will be in the 4 coin uncs and the half unc.
think that both the proofs and uncs are all time low mintages. TextFriends, this is a no-brainer of historic proportions. The best returns (of what's now available) will be in the 4 coin uncs and the half unc.
I just opened a box of UNC 1/2s that came in today from the mint and I can honestly say that I have never received so many good looking coins in one order. I averaged 75% good looking to flawless coins out of this order and I was extremely surprised. First time.
I'm surprised the HSN guy hasn't tried to buy up all the plats by now. How many are left is the million dollar question, and that is about how much it would take to end the riddle perhaps for the 4 coin set UNC. If it goes over 1500 sets though I think we are in trouble as the mint seems to like even numbers. 1000,1500, 2000. At 2000 sets it makes the 2006 coins lower for the 1/10.
Comments
There will be no 1/10 platinum coins produced in 2009 by the Mint.
thanks for that very important comment.
Ericj96
That is interesting. Is that for sure?
Ericj96
Also lets look at the ratios of 07 to known approximated sell out for the 08s
$10 2007.....3000 coins after 15 percent over order margin and returns
$10 2008.....2000 coins bfore 15 percent over order so lets net out 2000/1.15 = 1750
THATS A 40-45 PERCENT DROP
$25 2007....1200 coins after 15 percent over order margin
$25 2008.....700 coins before 15 percent over order margin so lets net out 700/1.15=600
THATS A 40-50 PERCENT DROP
LETS ASSUME THE YEAR OVER YEAR NUMBERS FOR ALL OPTIONS ARE STABLE................
4000X.55=2200
3500X.55=1900
3700X55=2000
5700X.55=3100
The bottom line is 2000 quarters and halves is not a crazy hope.
okay, starting off, I agree that if the Mint sticks with platinum, and spot stays low, the 2009 prices could be even lower. A lower price would could help drive sales, which would make 2009 a higher mintage. Of course, most of the big buyers would anticipate that, and would steer clear of 2009 purchases in bulk as they will not be as scarce as the 2008s or other 2006s, and would avoid buying quantities of 2009s since they are unlikely to be flippable. Demand would need to come from new entrants to the market. That could happen, but while a few deep pocket buyers probably account for a large percentage of 2008 sales right now, the collector base is built one collector at a time. If the base is built, that's a great thing for the existing coins... if platinum stayed on parity with gold, or lower, and became more widely collected as a result, the low mintages on existing coins would start to pay off. Keys would start to behave like keys, instead of like platinum plus.
Then again, affordable platinum is a double-edged sword; cheap platinum is largely tied to fears about the economy and lower demand for products that use platinum. A bad economy likely translates to lower demand for products, especially things like collectibles.
The problem for the 2008 proof coins left is they are still selling for a huge premium to spot prices. How many people will buy the platinum 4 coin proof sets when there are probably over 2000 left to sell? That amount takes 4 months to sell off in normal sales.
Maybe the mint will pull these coins off again and lower prices on us.
I also agree that even the lowered price is a bit of a hurdle for the 2008 proofs. $2400 for a set is better than $4300, but it's still a lot of money. Still, as supplies of the 2008 uncirculated coins are gobbled up, those who missed out will likely turn to proofs. It might not happen in a weekend, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 2008 proof 1/10 and 1/4 oz coins were the next to go dark. I also think the chance of the Mint repricing the 2008 proofs lower is next to zero. It took a long time for the Mint to adjust the prices, and they probably aren't making any more, so I wouldn't expect another price adjustment.
Even if this was as you think -- 2000 left to sell which would take 4 months to sell of in normal sales -- I'm not sure why that is a problem? I doubt the Mint is trying to liquidate inventory. Past proof issues, including the 2004 proofs, stayed available a few months into 2005. If the 2008 proof supply took 4 months to sell off, I suspect the Mint would be fine with it.
really?? proof and uncirculated? Now that's an interesting development. I've often thought the Mint would be wise to cut down on the sheer number of denominations it puts out... but cutting the 1/10 isn't the way I'd do it; those are the most affordable for moderate budget collectors.
Taking this as fact, it's a real game-changer. That would also kill the 4 coin sets. If they're going to do that, I think they should eliminate at least one other denomination.
I'd advocate keeping the $25 -- it's affordable and the size is comparable to other widely collected coins. So I'd say eliminate the $50 or $100; I can make arguments for either. The $50 normally has the lowest mintages and is probably the least collected platinum, but the denomination, $50, is where the dollar denomination of the gold coins cap out. Also supporting the $50 is the Mint's using that coin for the 2007 reverse proof set -- seems to show the Mint's support for that denomination.
The $100 is, in my opinion, the best of the coins. It's large and displays the designs nicely. Size-wise, it has the appeal. While it's relatively affordable at current spot, but if we see platinum rebound to $2000+ from here, that would change.
I will write about this later when I have some time..............
<< <i>I DON'T THINK THE MARKET UNDERSTANDS JUST HOW HELPFUL THIS DENOMINATION DELETE WILL BE OR HOW IMPORTANT IT IS.
I will write about this later when I have some time.............. >>
You are correct! It is totally unimportant to me! As a matter of fact, the mint could discontinue 80% of their offerings and I would be a lot happier.
On the 2008 UNC platinum coins it looks like the singles were packaged in the same numbers or slightly higher than 2006 levels. If they did that with the proof then there are thousands of coins left to sell. BTW I have bought a few of the 1/10 so I am in these too and am not pretending to know for sure, but it seems that if they made the full run to 2006 levels with the UNC singles then why wouldn't they have done the same for the proof?
Thats fine if you collect something else. If I collected just proof gold britannias what happens in these fractional gold and platinum series would not matter to me either.
I guess you just felt the need to say something negative.
Ericj96
The proof plats sold even less, 211 sets last week. If there are 2000 proof 4 coin sets left it will take 9.5 weeks to end them unless sales pick up or there are many less sets to sell.
I agree. It's a game-changer.
On the one hand, it closes the door to the low-budget collector for whom $320 for the $25 (at current price anyway) is out of range. The $10 coin is something of an entry level coin, and I can see a theory being that a small budget collector of $10s might, in improved circumstances, move up to larger coins. Personally I don't expect that would be true, not in significant numbers anyway.
On the other hand, eliminating the $10 refocuses the market to whatever coins remain. Some $10 collectors would leave. Some will be forced to shift up to the next available denomination, presumably the $25.
Those who collect $10s and 4 coin sets would now be collecting a closed series. Whether or not that's desirable; only time will tell. I think modern collectors are primarily drawn to coins that renew each year, not a closed series. Look forward to what comes next, not what already exists. Still, there is a certain amount of built-in delay in the market. The Jackie Robinson $5s were unpopular at issue, stagnant for some time, and then took off once redbook published the mintage numbers and collectors took note. There is a ridiculously long lag for mintage numbers to make the redbook. The 2007 copy I have in front of me doesn't show mintages for 2004 platinums. I can certainly imagine renewed interest in the $10 coins as an affordable, low mintage closed series.
Anyway, Eric, I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.
Eric, I really appreciate your analyses and commentaries. In fact, I really appreciate the contributions of lots of folks in this thread!
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>"It is totally unimportant to me."
Thats fine if you collect something else. If I collected just proof gold britannias what happens in these fractional gold and platinum series would not matter to me either.
I guess you just felt the need to say something negative.
Ericj96 >>
How is that negative? I was just agreeing with you. Maybe I misunderstood?
I DON'T THINK THE MARKET UNDERSTANDS JUST HOW HELPFUL THIS DENOMINATION DELETE WILL BE OR HOW IMPORTANT IT IS.
IF the $10 one-tenth ounce platinum is discontinued after 2008, and IF the other denominations continue to be struck, the $10 coin will become a closed series. I think such a scenario would have both advantages and disadvantages.
On the plus side, $10 sets might attract collectors as a short and completable modern series with attractively low mintages when compared to other recent coins. The bullion and proof sets would consist of 12 coins each and the burnished set would consist of only 3 coins with a common theme and a *very* low mintage.
On the minus side, many collectors on a low budget might want to continue obtaining the new designs as they are issued, and would now have to switch to the 1/4 ounce coins to do so. This may not be a big obstacle as long as the price of platinum remains below the cost of production, but it would become a significant issue if platinum prices recover to $2,000 an ounce or more, especially if the recession lasts for a long time. This could cause some collectors of modest means to stop buying future issues. Some might even sell their plats and switch to more affordable series.
Also on the minus side, the "entry level" coin from the Mint would now be the $25 coin at more than double the price of the $10 coin. I don't think this would be helpful in attracting new collectors to the series. I imagine that many platinum collectors begin with the relatively affordable $10 coin, and then move up to higher denominations if their budget permits. I think that fewer new collectors would be willing to "try out" the series with a $25 coin, especially if the price of platinum recovers.
The $10 "W" plats consistently have the highest mintage of the four coins in each year's set, and presumably the most popularity. In my view, discontinuing this denomination would probably boost the demand for existing $10 coins, but would limit the number of new people willing to collect the series going forward.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i> I DON'T THINK THE MARKET UNDERSTANDS JUST HOW HELPFUL THIS DENOMINATION DELETE WILL BE OR HOW IMPORTANT IT IS.
In my view, discontinuing this denomination would probably boost the demand for existing $10 coins, but would limit the number of new people willing to collect the series going forward. >>
It would have a + effect on the $5 & $10 AGEs or Buffs...
That is the platinum coin that I collect.....
What is the logic in deleting the coin with the highest mintage from sales? You should cut from the top not from the bottom size wise.....
Would I move to the 1/4 oz coins, I suppose I could, but my collection would not match then.....
Also if the get rid of this coin that would not cause me to go after gold coins at all.....
I'd save a lot of money each year. At least some of the $10 collectors can afford the $25, and anyone buying the larger coins certainly could.
The $100 coins have always been my favorites but they just too expensive, even at $1200, for most people to collect.
I really don't understand the logic behind eliminating the $10 coin unless they get rid of something else while they're at it.
becuase that diversity coin they are planning won't work on such a small planchet!
<< <i>I really don't understand the logic behind eliminating the $10 coin unless they get rid of something else while they're at it. >>
I can see dropping the $10 bullion or even the $10 uncs; or both. Since I "hoard" the proof $10, I'd be fine with it! I agree that the Mint has WAY too many offerings (mainly because I have a hard time choosing which to buy), but I believe the low sales #'s are a positive consequence of their product "saturation."
That 2009 reverse is God Awful Ugly!!! Where's the white man?
<< <i>Maybe they should get rid of the 1/4 and 1/2 ounce platinums since those sell the least and only keep the full ounce and 1/10. Also the mint has way too many gold coins in proof and UNC, only Warren Buffet can keep up with it all. >>
Actually Warren is down $9.6 Billion right now, so I'd bet he's not keeping up with the gold coins either!
There's no place for him in a more perfect union in the eyes of CCAC.
You don't count for anything if you are a white man in the more perfect union world.....
<< <i>Where is the dropping 1/10 oz coin information coming from? >>
From DeepCoin, who I think works for the Mint.
DeepCoin said it; Eric vouched for DeepCoin as a source.
Not knowing more, I'm willing to discuss it as if it were true.
Thanks
Eric
"Platinum at All Time High, Mint Suspends Platinum Eagles
The US Mint has once again suspended sales of platinum products in response to the latest rise. The Burnished Platinum Eagles had only been on sale for 4 days last week before being pulled. The Proof Platinum Eagles and 10th Anniversary Platinum Eagle Set later followed. The one platinum product still for sale is the 1/10 ounce Proof Platinum Eagle for $269.95."
So if platinum keeps dropping they may still pull the 2008 and have to reprice again perhaps.
I can't see any.....
<< <i>So if platinum keeps dropping they may still pull the 2008 and have to reprice again perhaps. >>
Nobody has really said too much about it, but what was the deal with the Federal Register? The Mint is required to post price changes one week prior to the change. However, the first time this latest change was posted was 10/17, but was backdated as 10/10. Hmmmmm... Any ideas other than, "Because they can"???
into the $700 range now. The sales of plats should tail-off as well. It will be a very interesting year to look back on in the future.
becuase that diversity coin they are planning won't work on such a small planchet!
Sure it will . . . all they need to do is include a free magnifying glass with each coin!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Well, it would be a true diversity coin at that size because with faces that tiny, everyone would look the same.
4000 1/10 proof singles + 3000 4 coin sets ties the 2004 coins. Right now they are at:
1520 1/10 proof singles + 970 4 coins sets for a total of 2490 in sales.
Since they made 2000 1/10 uncirculated platinum coin singles and have sold out, maybe they made 3500 of the 1/10 platinum proof singles.
The 4 coins sets maybe they made 2500 of those for a total of 6000 1/10 coins. That would still be 1000 coins below the 2004 coins but not very much below, but is only a guess.
I wonder what the chances are they made more than the 2004 totals?
BUY! BUY! BUY!
What's the matter with the 1/4 oz unc's ?
IMO, 1000