The drop in Platinum bullion price is letting us see just how much numismatic value there is in Platinum eagles. In this regard report from Wondercoin that there are few coins being offered at % above spot is encouraging. The platinum tsunami from 1300 to 2300 lifted all boats. For a few months all but rarest were worth more as bulion then as a numismatic items. Now that the tsunami has passed we will have to see where true numismatic value remains. I'm on record as having sold many 2005-2007 Proofs and 2007-W Unc. for scrap. Now that the great platinum eagle meltdown is over what remains? One thing should be clear........overhang has been reduced and many weak hands have folded.
Now that the tsunami has passed we will have to see where true numismatic value remains.
That's true, but that will not be a short-term event.
There is too much volatility right now, so the first thing that has to happen is for the market to stablize.
I'm on record as having sold many 2005-2007 Proofs and 2007-W Unc. for scrap. Now that the great platinum eagle meltdown is over what remains?
I believe it will take years for the market to solidify to the point where we can discuss surviving population.
Unlike older coins, where surviving population might be under 100, and a new discovery is noticeable, even with the rarest of platinums I expect the surviving population will be a few thousand. There's no way to even roughly estimate what may have been sold for a non-numismatic purpose. On top of that, because they are moderns, they are essentially fungible. It won't be possible to determine if new submissions for grading represent raw coins that we need to add to the headcount, or just regrade submissions.
Finally, the market indicators for surviving population won't help. On widely collected series, a high price can indicate low surviving population. For platinums, I don't believe that the collector base is more than a few thousand, and I suspect that the active collector base may be quite a bit smaller than that.
Anyway, until the bullion market stablizes, I think platinum coins are not going to show up on the market unless the owner is required to sell for other reasons.
the flippers using credit cards for funding will soon be folding,
Despite the assumption that a lot of modern collectors are flippers, I really doubt that there are many platinum flippers in this market.
This past year, it's been too expensive, and the price and risk is too high for most people to want to flip it. Putting a platinum set on a credit card with an interest rate of 10% a few months ago would have been a $4,000 investment. Factor in the transaction costs, and the holding costs (interest rate on that money over time) and it makes for a pretty lousy flipping opportunity.
That said, it does seem possible that collectors caught up in the economic downturn might have to liquidate holdings for other purposes, so there could be sporadic opportunities based on those factors. Anyway, this is just my expectation.
If we see platinum stablize for a few months within a tighter range, say $100, regardless of the level, I think supply will start to reenter the market- some people who were waiting for a quick upswing will cut their losses. I just don't know what demand will do... people have been souring on platinum coins over the last couple of years, and there was a lot of action after the 2006 w mintages came out (in a good economy with a housing bubble and a loose credit market), but now that the economic environment has changed, and even the 2006 ws have proven vulnerable to price declines AND potential replacement as the keys by the 2008s (something that is still hard to believe, but is sinking in slowly)... as they say "once bitten, twice shy" -- I just don't know if people will be keen on jumping back in to platinum.
Hopefully I'm being too pessimistic, and lower bullion price will result in new entrants to the market, and we'll see a larger, revitalized collector base.
<< <i>Hopefully I'm being too pessimistic, and lower bullion price will result in new entrants to the market, and we'll see a larger, revitalized collector base. >>
My thinking was along these lines as well. A drop in the price of plat could attract new collectors, especially because the mint is beginning a new "sub-series" of this coin. This could be muted by the recent market fluctuation in platinum, though.
If a lower price point did attract new collectors, this would put upward pressure on the 2004-2008 years of the series due to 1) these dates are already low mintages and 2) the recent melting (which likely did not affect 2004 dated coins).
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
Usually when something "crashes" in price, there are "weak" holders of the material who desire to sell, for one reason or another. The amazing thing about the platinum from my perspective is that very little is appearing on the market even with the metal dropping nearly every day (to this point at least). Just the opposite in fact - I now need to fill TWICE as many orders today as a week ago today. Not to mention Proof Gold sets- which is equally hard to obtain and a number of us are now paying close to $150-$200/oz OVER spot to buy today!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
If the Mint decided to pull the plug on platinums at the end of this year, would we see more collectors take interest?
Does the Mint have the authority to make that decision? I thought that platinum coin production was required by law (I could be wrong). I'm not sure whether this would apply to the proof/burnished versions, though.
I understand your opinion and belief that the Plats are too expensive for flippers to be involved...
but let me again strongly suggest that flippers are in fact in this space and have been through the 07w and 08w issues......
only now has thier "clock been cleaned" by the huge price drop in platinum and those individuals sitting on these coins - underwater - only hoping for a tremendous supply disruption in the metal to boost spot prices....
If I had to throw my money at any of these (assuming you can find anyone even selling them) I'd say go for the proof tenth oz-- they're the most widely collectible.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
Truly enjoyed your thoughtful post dated September 10, 2008 5:52 PM . Posts like that are the reason I come so often to this forum. I don’t always agree with everything in the forums but insightful posts like yours are very enjoyable. Keep it up and thanks!
Guys I just bought some 08 fractionals proof and unc-w plats I needed to cover holes in my extended families sets. I suggested weeks ago that people who needed the coins just sit back because they would very likely be back much cheaper. Now I am suggesting that if you want these coins do not play a game of chicken with the mint go buy them. Also I would like to point out that I think the Unc-w run was SMALL, maybe crazy small.
It will be interesting to see whether collecting plats will become more popular, now that the price is down.
Also will be interesting to see which unc-W coins have the lowest mintage, 2006-W or 2008-W. (For the 2006-W, survivorship is also an issue, as some were likely melted when platinum was over $2,000 an ounce.)
When the mint orders blanks do they come to them polished or burnished? The reason I ask is because if not the mint has a limited number of blanks lets say 3000 for the 1/4 oz. They have said on Oct 7 I thought that they are going to produce til supplies run out. From what I can guess it seems as though people tend to be purchasing a lot of burnished coins because the sales were the lowest. Now if they finish to demand and 2000 of these that are sold are burnished and 1000 are proof the proof becomes the sleeper and is lowest in sales. If the mint receives these polished and burnished this theory doesn't matter. Anyone have any insight.
The likelyhood of any more 2008 platinum eagles with the judical reverse being stuck in the next 6 weeks (about all thats left in the 08 run period) are close to zero. We can all go on and worrry about other things.
Just for the record, this is the price change notice posted on the Federal Registry last week:
[Federal Register: October 17, 2008 (Volume 73, Number 202)] [Notices] [Page 61933] From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov] [DOCID:fr17oc08-165]
Notification of American Eagle Platinum Proof and Uncirculated Coin Price Decreases
SUMMARY: The United States Mint is adjusting prices for its American Eagle Platinum Proof and Uncirculated Coins. Pursuant to the authority that 31 U.S.C. 5112(k) and 5111(a) grant the Secretary of the Treasury to mint and issue platinum coins, and to prepare and distribute numismatic items, the United States Mint mints and issues 2008 American Eagle Platinum Proof and Uncirculated Coins in four denominations with the following weights: One-ounce, one-half ounce, one-quarter ounce, one-tenth ounce. The United States Mint also produces American Eagle Platinum Proof and Uncirculated four-coin sets that contain one coin of each denomination. In accordance with 31 U.S.C. 9701(b)(2)(B), the United States Mint is changing the price of these coins to reflect decreases in the market price of platinum. Effective on October 17, 2008, the United States Mint will commence selling the following 2008 American Eagle Platinum Proof and Uncirculated Coins according to the following price schedule:
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Brunhart, Deputy Director; United States Mint; 801 Ninth Street, NW., Washington, DC 20220; or call 202-354-7500.
Authority: 31 U.S.C. 5111, 5112 & 9701.
Dated: October 10, 2008. Edmund C. Moy, Director, United States Mint. [FR Doc. E8-24684 Filed 10-16-08; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE 4810-02-P
I interpret Eric's comments to suggest that the $25 08-W platinum will be the next to sell out, now that the $10 08-W platinum is on backorder and likely sold out. If you wait, you may not be able to buy the coin except in the secondary market and likely at a higher price. It seems that based on Eric's comments and 7/8 comments in another thread, the mintages for the 08-W platinum coins may be the smallest in history.
I have found Eric's advice and insights to be accurate in the past. But each of us will have to decide what to do. Good luck.
I got in on one of the backordered quarter ouncers. This is probably the cheapest way to pick one up for my typeset. Thanks for the heads up on these folks!
I put my order in this afternoon at 2:30 and received a confirmation. Thanks for the heads up because otherwise I woud have procrastinated as usual Looking at 1/4 proof next month if they hang around long enough.
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
Comments
In this regard report from Wondercoin that there are few coins being offered at % above spot is encouraging.
The platinum tsunami from 1300 to 2300 lifted all boats.
For a few months all but rarest were worth more as bulion then as a numismatic items.
Now that the tsunami has passed we will have to see where true numismatic value remains.
I'm on record as having sold many 2005-2007 Proofs and 2007-W Unc. for scrap.
Now that the great platinum eagle meltdown is over what remains?
One thing should be clear........overhang has been reduced and many weak hands have folded.
and without that happening, and the further decline to 1150, with some good forecasts even saying sub-1000 very soon for PLATINUM,
the flippers using credit cards for funding will soon be folding,
my opinion, of course.
That's true, but that will not be a short-term event.
There is too much volatility right now, so the first thing that has to happen is for the market to stablize.
I'm on record as having sold many 2005-2007 Proofs and 2007-W Unc. for scrap. Now that the great platinum eagle meltdown is over what remains?
I believe it will take years for the market to solidify to the point where we can discuss surviving population.
Unlike older coins, where surviving population might be under 100, and a new discovery is noticeable, even with the rarest of platinums I expect the surviving population will be a few thousand. There's no way to even roughly estimate what may have been sold for a non-numismatic purpose. On top of that, because they are moderns, they are essentially fungible. It won't be possible to determine if new submissions for grading represent raw coins that we need to add to the headcount, or just regrade submissions.
Finally, the market indicators for surviving population won't help. On widely collected series, a high price can indicate low surviving population. For platinums, I don't believe that the collector base is more than a few thousand, and I suspect that the active collector base may be quite a bit smaller than that.
Anyway, until the bullion market stablizes, I think platinum coins are not going to show up on the market unless the owner is required to sell for other reasons.
the flippers using credit cards for funding will soon be folding,
Despite the assumption that a lot of modern collectors are flippers, I really doubt that there are many platinum flippers in this market.
This past year, it's been too expensive, and the price and risk is too high for most people to want to flip it. Putting a platinum set on a credit card with an interest rate of 10% a few months ago would have been a $4,000 investment. Factor in the transaction costs, and the holding costs (interest rate on that money over time) and it makes for a pretty lousy flipping opportunity.
That said, it does seem possible that collectors caught up in the economic downturn might have to liquidate holdings for other purposes, so there could be sporadic opportunities based on those factors. Anyway, this is just my expectation.
If we see platinum stablize for a few months within a tighter range, say $100, regardless of the level, I think supply will start to reenter the market- some people who were waiting for a quick upswing will cut their losses. I just don't know what demand will do... people have been souring on platinum coins over the last couple of years, and there was a lot of action after the 2006 w mintages came out (in a good economy with a housing bubble and a loose credit market), but now that the economic environment has changed, and even the 2006 ws have proven vulnerable to price declines AND potential replacement as the keys by the 2008s (something that is still hard to believe, but is sinking in slowly)... as they say "once bitten, twice shy" -- I just don't know if people will be keen on jumping back in to platinum.
Hopefully I'm being too pessimistic, and lower bullion price will result in new entrants to the market, and we'll see a larger, revitalized collector base.
<< <i>Hopefully I'm being too pessimistic, and lower bullion price will result in new entrants to the market, and we'll see a larger, revitalized collector base. >>
My thinking was along these lines as well. A drop in the price of plat could attract new collectors, especially because the mint is beginning a new "sub-series" of this coin. This could be muted by the recent market fluctuation in platinum, though.
If a lower price point did attract new collectors, this would put upward pressure on the 2004-2008 years of the series due to 1) these dates are already low mintages and 2) the recent melting (which likely did not affect 2004 dated coins).
Wondercoin
If the Mint decided to pull the plug on platinums at the end of this year, would we see more collectors take interest?
Does the Mint have the authority to make that decision? I thought that platinum coin production was required by law (I could be wrong). I'm not sure whether this would apply to the proof/burnished versions, though.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I understand your opinion and belief that the Plats are too expensive for flippers to be involved...
but let me again strongly suggest that flippers are in fact in this space and have been through the 07w and 08w issues......
only now has thier "clock been cleaned" by the huge price drop in platinum and those individuals sitting on these coins - underwater - only hoping for a tremendous supply disruption in the metal to boost spot prices....
2008 Proofs:
1 oz: 1981
1/2 oz: 1241
1/4 oz: 1387
1/10 oz: 2014
2008 W Uncs:
1 oz: 599
1/2 oz: 579
1/4 oz: 651
1/10 oz: 1165
If I had to throw my money at any of these (assuming you can find anyone even selling them) I'd say go for the proof tenth oz-- they're the most widely collectible.
Maybe we are all sitting on the same stuff?
I'm on record as having sold many 2005-2007 Proofs and 2007-W Unc. for scrap.
You sold some 2005 Proofs for scrap?
I knew it would happen.
R
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>got W?
R >>
<< <i>got W?
R >>
Not enough!
Truly enjoyed your thoughtful post dated September 10, 2008 5:52 PM . Posts like that are the reason I come so often to this forum. I don’t always agree with everything in the forums but insightful posts like yours are very enjoyable. Keep it up and thanks!
Best Wishes
Thanks
Eric
Also will be interesting to see which unc-W coins have the lowest mintage, 2006-W or 2008-W. (For the 2006-W, survivorship is also an issue, as some were likely melted when platinum was over $2,000 an ounce.)
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Get em while you can
IMO, this can be much better than two years ago........
<< <i>IMO, this can be much better than two years ago........ >>
I agree...I'm In....
FloridaBill
I wouldn't rule it out.
I believe this will be the last year of no questions asked 30 day returns.
So did I...
<< <i>got W?
R >>
Yes!
One more.
Averaging down!
Ericj96
[Federal Register: October 17, 2008 (Volume 73, Number 202)]
[Notices]
[Page 61933]
From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
[DOCID:fr17oc08-165]
[[Page 61933]]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY
United States Mint
Notification of American Eagle Platinum Proof and Uncirculated
Coin Price Decreases
SUMMARY: The United States Mint is adjusting prices for its American
Eagle Platinum Proof and Uncirculated Coins.
Pursuant to the authority that 31 U.S.C. 5112(k) and 5111(a) grant
the Secretary of the Treasury to mint and issue platinum coins, and to
prepare and distribute numismatic items, the United States Mint mints
and issues 2008 American Eagle Platinum Proof and Uncirculated Coins in
four denominations with the following weights: One-ounce, one-half
ounce, one-quarter ounce, one-tenth ounce. The United States Mint also
produces American Eagle Platinum Proof and Uncirculated four-coin sets
that contain one coin of each denomination. In accordance with 31
U.S.C. 9701(b)(2)(B), the United States Mint is changing the price of
these coins to reflect decreases in the market price of platinum.
Effective on October 17, 2008, the United States Mint will commence
selling the following 2008 American Eagle Platinum Proof and
Uncirculated Coins according to the following price schedule:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Description Price
------------------------------------------------------------------------
American Eagle Platinum Proof Coins:
One-ounce platinum coin.......................... $1,324.95
One-half ounce platinum coin..................... 674.95
One-quarter ounce platinum coin.................. 349.95
One-tenth ounce platinum coin.................... 149.95
Four-coin platinum set........................... 2,419.95
American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Coins:
One-ounce platinum coin.......................... 1,214.95
One-half ounce platinum coin..................... 619.95
One-quarter ounce platinum coin.................. 319.95
One-tenth ounce platinum coin.................... 134.95
Four-coin platinum set........................... 2,219.95
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Brunhart, Deputy Director;
United States Mint; 801 Ninth Street, NW., Washington, DC 20220; or
call 202-354-7500.
Authority: 31 U.S.C. 5111, 5112 & 9701.
Dated: October 10, 2008.
Edmund C. Moy,
Director, United States Mint.
[FR Doc. E8-24684 Filed 10-16-08; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4810-02-P
I interpret Eric's comments to suggest that the $25 08-W platinum will be the next to sell out, now that the $10 08-W platinum is on backorder and likely sold out.
If you wait, you may not be able to buy the coin except in the secondary market and likely at a higher price. It seems that based on Eric's comments and 7/8 comments in another thread, the mintages for the 08-W platinum coins may be the smallest in history.
I have found Eric's advice and insights to be accurate in the past. But each of us will have to decide what to do. Good luck.
So far, no reports of mass purchases, so this is exciting news, Eric!!
I knew it would happen.
Ren
Any guesses on proof plat mintages? Could 2008 mintage be lower than 2004, making 2008 the new proof keys?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
ERICJ96
<< <i>Just for the record, this is the price change notice posted on the Federal Registry last week:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Description Price
------------------------------------------------------------------------
American Eagle Platinum Proof Coins:
One-ounce platinum coin.......................... $1,324.95
One-half ounce platinum coin..................... 674.95
One-quarter ounce platinum coin.................. 349.95
One-tenth ounce platinum coin.................... 149.95
Four-coin platinum set........................... 2,419.95
American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Coins:
One-ounce platinum coin.......................... 1,214.95
One-half ounce platinum coin..................... 619.95
One-quarter ounce platinum coin.................. 319.95
One-tenth ounce platinum coin.................... 134.95
Four-coin platinum set........................... 2,219.95
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The prices have dropped since 2006, for the Uncirulated 1 Ounce Coin.
You are welcome! Yes they are averages of prices realized from eBay, TT and Heritage...