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  • NeoStarNeoStar Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭
    there are probably so few platinum collectors left that they could put OUR faces on this coin.

    That probably wouldn't be a good looking at all (specially if they put my face on it)...image
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    since no one else said it, i will.....

    where's the white guy?
  • GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭


    << <i>since no one else said it, i will.....

    where's the white guy? >>



    He didn't have time to pose for the portrait, because he was too busy trying to figure out how he was going to buy next year's platinum issues!
    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
  • GATGAT Posts: 3,146
    The mintage numbers include the fractional Buffalo coins.
    Latest mintage figures
    USAF vet 1951-59
  • SoundPointSoundPoint Posts: 255 ✭✭✭


    << <i>This is the CCAC Recommendation:

    image >>



    Political correctness run amuck.
    I'm surprised the women aren't kissing and the men holding hands. >>



    1. CCAC - Communal Citizens for American Correctness

    2. Where does the privy mark go?

    3. Obvious PC coin: Asian-, Indian-, African-, Euro-American. Where's the Latino? The Pacific Islander? The Illegal Alien? The Islamic terrorist?

    Ren >>




    More diversity tripe from the communist compost heap. Just what this country needs. >>

    image

    Where is Penn & Teller when you need them?
    This Diversity coin is FUC!%#!_BULLS#%!
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As a middle-aged white guy, I feel discriminated against. Who do they think is going to be buying this stuff? When do I get to celebrate who I am?

    Aw, nuts. The Mint is ruining another series.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.


  • << <i>The mintage numbers include the fractional Buffalo coins.
    Latest mintage figures >>



    I like the mintage figures of the proof plats. image

    image
    FULL Heads RULE!
  • What in the H@#$ happened to the previous designers of the Platinum series?
    Did they ALL retire? These designs are not fitting for a $1 commemorative, much less a mega-buck Platinum product!
    Audentes fortuna juvat
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>As a middle-aged white guy, I feel discriminated against. Who do they think is going to be buying this stuff? When do I get to celebrate who I am?

    Aw, nuts. The Mint is ruining another series. >>



    Aw, stop clinging to your guns and religion.image

    Just collect.

    Ren
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>The mintage numbers include the fractional Buffalo coins.
    Latest mintage figures >>



    I like the mintage figures of the proof plats. image

    image >>



    Thanks for the link!

    Look a the disparity between the 1oz proof and unc...it's ten-fold and the half oz is 3-fold the other way. Quarter oz comparison is 3 to 2 in the uncs favor. Tenth is 13 to 9 in uncs favor. The buff 4-coin is 4 to 3 proof. There is no rhyme nor reason or consistency. It's all over the map. Still, pretty impressive numbers in such a short time.....when one compares the number to the......shhhhhh........platinum uncs (the last great modern-classic design in the 11-year series.)

    Ren
  • Instead of asking committees, why don't they just ask us 23 plat collectors? We're the ones buying the coins.
    Successful BST transactions: clackamas, goldman86, alohagary, rodzm, bigmarty58, Hyperion, segoja, levinll, dmarks


  • << <i>Instead of asking committees, why don't they just ask us 23 plat collectors? We're the ones buying the coins. >>



    Ha! Are there still that many of us around? image Nice idea, though - can't think of any bigger fans of the series!
    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Aw, stop clinging to your guns and religion.

    Just collect.


    Come'on Ren. You know that I can't help feeling that ol' antipathy towards those who are different from me!!

    Ha! Are there still that many of us around? Nice idea, though - can't think of any bigger fans of the series!

    EricSan, I'm pretty sure that we've dropped to about 14 or 15. Without the flippers, it's like the Maytag Repairman around here.

    image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • NeoStarNeoStar Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭
    Based on the National Archives and Records Administration website (GPO Access - LINKY), these are the last changes in pricing for Platinum pricing. I guess in a few weeks we'll see the new prices posted on the Federal Register (FR). The active volume is Federal Register, Volume 73 (2008). These pages can be found by doing an advanced search for "American Eagle Platinum":

    (From fr21jy08N Notification of 2008 American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Coin)

    [Federal Register: July 21, 2008 (Volume 73, Number 140)]
    [Notices]
    [Page 42411]
    From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
    [DOCID:fr21jy08-119]

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY

    United States Mint


    Notification of 2008 American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Coin
    Pricing

    Summary: The United States Mint is setting prices for its 2008
    American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Coins.
    Pursuant to the authority that 31 U.S.C. 5111(a) and 5112(k) grant
    the Secretary of the Treasury to mint and issue platinum coins, and to
    prepare and distribute numismatic items, the United States Mint mints
    and issues 2008 American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Coins in four
    denominations with the following weights: one ounce, one-half ounce,
    one-quarter ounce, one-tenth ounce. The United States Mint also
    produces American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated four-coin sets that
    contain one coin of each denomination. In accordance with 31 U.S.C.
    9701(b)(2)(B), the United States Mint is setting the price of these
    coins to reflect recent increases in the market price of platinum.
    The United States Mint will make available the following 2008
    American Eagle Uncirculated Platinum Coins according to the following
    price schedule:

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Description Price
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Coins:
    One ounce platinum coin................................ $2,349.95
    One-half ounce platinum coin........................... 1,199.95
    One-quarter ounce platinum coin........................ 619.95
    One-tenth ounce platinum coin.......................... 259.95
    Four-coin platinum set................................. 4,289.95
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For Futher Information Contact: Gloria C. Eskridge, Associate
    Director for Sales and Marketing, United States Mint, 801 Ninth Street,
    NW., Washington, DC 20220; or call 202-354-7500.

    Authority: 31 U.S.C. 5111, 5112 & 9701.

    Dated: July 14, 2008.
    Edmund C. Moy,
    Director, United States Mint.
    [FR Doc. E8-16527 Filed 7-18-08; 8:45 am]
    BILLING CODE 4810-02-P


    (From fr14ap08N Notification of American Eagle 10th Anniversary Platinum Coin Set)

    [Federal Register: April 14, 2008 (Volume 73, Number 72)]
    [Notices]
    [Page 20085-20086]
    From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
    [DOCID:fr14ap08-104]

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY

    United States Mint


    Notification of American Eagle 10th Anniversary Platinum Coin Set
    Price Increase

    Summary: The United States Mint is adjusting the price for its
    American Eagle 10th Anniversary Platinum Coin Set.
    Pursuant to the authority that 31 U.S.C. 5111(a) and 5112(k) grant
    the Secretary of the Treasury to mint and issue platinum coins, and to
    prepare and distribute numismatic items, the United States Mint minted
    last year and continues to issue 2007 American Eagle Platinum Proof
    Coins. In accordance with 31 U.S.C. 9701(b)(2)(B), the United States
    Mint is changing the price of this coin set to reflect the increase in
    value of the underlying precious metal content of the coins--the result
    of

    [[Page 20086]]

    increases in the market price of platinum.
    Accordingly, the United States Mint will commence selling the 2007
    American Eagle 10th Anniversary Platinum Coin Set according to the
    following price schedule:

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Description Price
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    American Eagle 10th Anniversary Platinum Coin Set....... $2,649.95
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For Further Information Contact: Gloria C. Eskridge, Associate
    Director for Sales and Marketing; United States Mint; 801 Ninth Street,
    NW.; Washington, DC 20220; or call 202-354-7500.

    Authority: 31 U.S.C. 5111, 5112 & 9701.

    Dated: April 9, 2008.
    Edmund C. Moy,
    Director, United States Mint.
    [FR Doc. E8-7900 Filed 4-11-08; 8:45 am]
    BILLING CODE 4810-02-P


  • << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>The mintage numbers include the fractional Buffalo coins.
    Latest mintage figures >>



    I like the mintage figures of the proof plats. image

    image >>



    Thanks for the link!

    Look a the disparity between the 1oz proof and unc...it's ten-fold and the half oz is 3-fold the other way. Quarter oz comparison is 3 to 2 in the uncs favor. Tenth is 13 to 9 in uncs favor. The buff 4-coin is 4 to 3 proof. There is no rhyme nor reason or consistency. It's all over the map. Still, pretty impressive numbers in such a short time.....when one compares the number to the......shhhhhh........platinum uncs (the last great modern-classic design in the 11-year series.)


    Those uncirculated numbers may be off significantly. I returned 90% of mine at end of 30 day return period. Terrible quality and the $500 per oz. drop in platinum price just killed me. I'm sure I'm not the only one to buy when they were released in early July and then bail by early august.

    Ren >>

  • nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    also, be sure not to confuse the uncirculated bullion coins with the "w" uncirculateds.

    That chart reflects bullion coins, not the "w" uncirculateds, which numismatic news reports in a separate box.

    I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'm pretty sure the "w" uncirculated sales figures were significantly lower than the proof numbers.

    The bullion figures are poorly reported, and unreliable. For one thing, they only show sales in a given year, which for the bullioin coins is different from sales OF a given year, since they sell coins from the prior year into the next.

    I've also previously asked NN to change the reporting to reflect a running sales tally. Last I knew they only show sales in a given month on the bullions, so you need to keep tabs from month to month and add the numbers up if you want a year-to-date total.

    On top of that, I've never understood and dislike how NN reports the numbers as coins/ounces. WE KNOW that, for the $100 coins 1 coin = 1 ounce, and that the 1/10 ounce coins, 10 coins = 1 ounce. It's such a useless way to display the data as 100/100, 400/100, 4000/400. I've asked numismatic news to just show the sales figure, but they don't care enough to change it.

    Not only is that way of showing the information useless, they've made a mistake!

    They've added the platinum bullion numbers and show 7,000/600, when, assuming the individual sales numbers are right, the total should be 4500/600.



    Dan
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Aw, stop clinging to your guns and religion.

    Just collect.


    Come'on Ren. You know that I can't help feeling that ol' antipathy towards those who are different from me!!

    jmski52, I feel your pain (to be said in a southern crusty tone.)image

    Ren
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>also, be sure not to confuse the uncirculated bullion coins with the "w" uncirculateds.

    That chart reflects bullion coins, not the "w" uncirculateds, which numismatic news reports in a separate box.

    I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'm pretty sure the "w" uncirculated sales figures were significantly lower than the proof numbers.

    The bullion figures are poorly reported, and unreliable. For one thing, they only show sales in a given year, which for the bullioin coins is different from sales OF a given year, since they sell coins from the prior year into the next.

    nycounsel, check the link. It shows the separate box for the various "W" mintages.

    I like your avatar, it was the "day" that my girlfriend said "I do." It's also interesting that the Chinese gov't have successfully blocked all pictures of that days massacre.

    Ren
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>there are probably so few platinum collectors left that they could put OUR faces on this coin. >>



    That probably wouldn't culturally diverse enough plus it may become uglier than the Shriver coin.....well...maybe not!image

    Ren
  • TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    I would like to see a big drop in the W unc platinum numbers as well as the proof numbers.....

    If that is even possible.....
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
  • Proof numbers are unlikely to drop much as 30 day return period is past, at least as far as the initial few weeks of sales.

    The 2008-W Uncirculated coins hit a perfect storm...........

    3rd year with less initial interest.
    High starting price($4250+ set of 4)
    Huge rapid drop in bullion price from time of initial pricing to end of 30 day return period.

    For a 4 coin set purchased early July you would today be looking at a premium of almost $1500 over current spot metal price!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  • << <i>I would like to see a big drop in the W unc platinum numbers as well as the proof numbers.....

    If that is even possible..... >>



    I've done my part by sending lots of proof and w-unc $50 back to the mint over the past few weeks. It would be funny to use our portraits on the plats, but I tend to think we don't capture enough diversity as well...

    Eric
    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    According to CW, the Mint plans to reprice 2007 & 2008 platinum coins!

    RATS!

    There goes the neighborhood.image

    Ren
  • TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    But when will that be.....

    Also the drop in platinum is likely to scare off potential customers anyways.....
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
  • Yes it ironic that interest and demand follow a rising price.
    Typically a fall in PM prices leads to a decline in interest and demand.


  • << <i>Yes it ironic that interest and demand follow a rising price.
    Typically a fall in PM prices leads to a decline in interest and demand. >>



    Excellent! No one will jump in with the hopes of holding for a few months to ride the upswing and then selling. Thus, fewer will be sold and maybe we'll have a new key on our hands. Too bad I purchased a 2004 a few years back, I tend to think their price may decline shortly...

    Eric
    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This thread involves mostly posters who are now relocated to the precious metals side. Should this thread be moved over there?
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • adamlaneusadamlaneus Posts: 6,969 ✭✭✭
    All of the numismatic non-circulatory metallic items discussed in this thread can be graded and slabbed.

    So, I say it can stay here.

    I'll move it if I change my mind.

  • TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    I think this thread mostly talks about the platinum coins and how they are and have the potential to be a great deal more then just a piece of precious metal.

    Much of this is talking about mintages and keys to the set, not something a precious metal collector would be interested in most likely.....
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes it ironic that interest and demand follow a rising price. Typically a fall in PM prices leads to a decline in interest and demand.

    Ironic - yes. Unfortunate - no.

    Subliminal Command - Do not buy Plats. You will lose money. They are hazardous to your financial health, just ask John Albanese. Bad Plats - Bad!!!!
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • I have mixed feelings about having returned some 2008-W unc. platinums.
    Price dive drove me to review coins and I found only 10-15% were good quality.
    I guess I saved a lot of money if they reprice but I'll kick myself if the 2008-Ws become really low mintage keys.
  • Does anyone have population numbers for PCGS FS 2008 Proof platinum??
  • NeoStarNeoStar Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭
    Mint Figures for the week (includes 4 coin sets):

    image

    image
  • NeoStarNeoStar Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭
    Latest Prices Realized at Auction (W UNC Platinum Eagles):

    image
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Neo, no doubt you are seeing the vast majority of the '08s going unsold on ebay due to "overpricing." I'd say that 95% are being priced high and don't sell. The only ones I've seen sell lately are a couple of PCGS-70s.

    Speculation is still with us, just at lower price levels and with a little bit less hype.

    I have mixed feelings about having returned some 2008-W unc. platinums. Price dive drove me to review coins and I found only 10-15% were good quality. I guess I saved a lot of money if they reprice but I'll kick myself if the 2008-Ws become really low mintage keys.

    Yeppers.image And I'll kick myself for not buying more of them, unless I kick myself for buying too many!
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.


  • << <i>Neo, no doubt you are seeing the vast majority of the '08s going unsold on ebay due to "overpricing." I'd say that 95% are being priced high and don't sell. The only ones I've seen sell lately are a couple of PCGS-70s.

    Speculation is still with us, just at lower price levels and with a little bit less hype.

    I have mixed feelings about having returned some 2008-W unc. platinums. Price dive drove me to review coins and I found only 10-15% were good quality. I guess I saved a lot of money if they reprice but I'll kick myself if the 2008-Ws become really low mintage keys.

    Yeppers.image And I'll kick myself for not buying more of them, unless I kick myself for buying too many! >>



    I believe when the Proof and Uncirculated Plats return it will be to sell remaining 2008 inventory on hand from initial production run.
    I doubt mint will make a second run and risk more price swings.
    Now question is......................................how big were those initial runs??
  • NeoStarNeoStar Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭
    Neo, no doubt you are seeing the vast majority of the '08s going unsold on ebay due to "overpricing." I'd say that 95% are being priced high and don't sell. The only ones I've seen sell lately are a couple of PCGS-70s.

    Many have gone unsold. Depending on the initial run, we might be witnessing the perfect storm and we may end up with low mintages. How low? We'll find out when we see what the mint's initial run was.
  • drei3reedrei3ree Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭
    I'd like to see "Classic Backs" reverse designs on the plats. The Mint could survey the public, give them five choices of no longer used classic reverse designs to pick from. The most popular would go on the 2009 plats. Then, a year from now, the one selected would be replaced on the list of five and the public could vote again for 2010, etc., etc.

    How about it?
  • 53BKid53BKid Posts: 2,174 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>This is the CCAC Recommendation:

    image >>



    Political correctness run amuck.
    I'm surprised the women aren't kissing and the men holding hands. >>



    1. CCAC - Communal Citizens for American Correctness

    2. Where does the privy mark go?

    3. Obvious PC coin: Asian-, Indian-, African-, Euro-American. Where's the Latino? The Pacific Islander? The Illegal Alien? The Islamic terrorist?

    Ren >>




    More diversity tripe from the communist compost heap. Just what this country needs. >>

    image

    Where is Penn & Teller when you need them?
    This Diversity coin is FUC!%#!_BULLS#%! >>




    Notice that there isn't a white male to be found...Political correctness at it's finest. Throw it on the heap of First Spouses.
    HAPPY COLLECTING!!!
  • GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭
    I don't mind diversity. I do mind ugly and boring coins--and this one does fit that bill.
    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010


  • << <i>I'd like to see "Classic Backs" reverse designs on the plats. The Mint could survey the public, give them five choices of no longer used classic reverse designs to pick from. The most popular would go on the 2009 plats. Then, a year from now, the one selected would be replaced on the list of five and the public could vote again for 2010, etc., etc.

    How about it? >>



    That's what the modern silver and gold commems seem to be for - rehashing the past because the mint is too lazy to come up with new designs. How about some NEW and INTERESTING art work? The early plat issues with Vistas of Liberty were excellent designs because they were new and creative. I especially like the 2007 design, even though it didn't feature the owl/eagle that we were all expecting. I think the "creative" phase of these coins may be over since we are now featuring political themes...

    Eric
    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
  • Guys take heart. Moy has demonstated that he does what he wants to without serious regard to the often conflicting likes of the CCAC etc. He seams to like good looking images of liberty of some form its way too early to dispare about the 09 designs.


    Best Wishes,

    Eric
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,866 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The Plat price keeps dropping and yet there is nearly no fresh coin merchandise available to buy right now. I am still trying to buy a large amount of fresh Proof Platinum today for customers and offering the highest premiums to spot I have ever had to offer in the past few years out there and, yet, only "dribs and drabs" come through - nearly no one is letting the sets go at these levels (or even when spot was a hundred or a hundred fifty an oz over where it is today). Yet, the metal keeps dropping every day / week. Amazing - it has nothing to do with numismatic demand (for better or for worse) obviously and that is important to remember. In the meantime, I'll keep actively trying to buy the material above spot. Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • I went to the Big Atlanta show two weeks ago hoping to find some unloved back date fractional plats in the 1997-2000 period to fill in a few holes in my extended family collections. NONE were found. Not one !!!!!!!!!!!!


    Interesting to see that Mitch is seeing the same problem.

    EricJ




  • << <i> Moy has demonstated that he does what he wants to without serious regard to the often conflicting likes of the CCAC etc. >>



    You are correct. Perhaps I'm letting some of my frustrations at work creep into conversations elsewhere. I do like the 2007 design, and perhaps more importantly, it demonstrates that Moy isn't a slave to committee decisions and isn't afraid to stick his neck out.

    Eric
    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
  • GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The Plat price keeps dropping and yet there is nearly no fresh coin merchandise available to buy right now. I am still trying to buy a large amount of fresh Proof Platinum today for customers and offering the highest premiums to spot I have ever had to offer in the past few years out there and, yet, only "dribs and drabs" come through - nearly no one is letting the sets go at these levels (or even when spot was a hundred or a hundred fifty an oz over where it is today). Yet, the metal keeps dropping every day / week. Amazing - it has nothing to do with numismatic demand (for better or for worse) obviously and that is important to remember. In the meantime, I'll keep actively trying to buy the material above spot. Wondercoin >>



    You say it has nothing to do with numismatic demand. What DOES it have to do with? Just speculators hoping the bullion value goes back up to 2K+? Thanks in advance!

    Oh, on the flip side, I notice that APMEX doesn't seem to be moving their $50 proof plats no matter what the price. image
    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
  • coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I went to the Big Atlanta show two weeks ago hoping to find some unloved back date fractional plats in the 1997-2000 period to fill in a few holes in my extended family collections. NONE were found. Not one !!!!!!!!!!!!


    Interesting to see that Mitch is seeing the same problem.

    EricJ >>




    I guess the people who own platinum now are planning to give it to their children when they die. Good thing for most sellers that the coin market has been going up for the last 15 years, because If it were to make a down turn they would be in serious trouble.

    That brings me to another point. What good are price guides if coins are priced at x% above what you paid regardless of market value?
  • The sun will shine on Platinum when we make cars in the good old U.S.A. and when hot, hot, hot , summers return to Africa and the return of power plant problems do to the lack of electricity.
  • Thank will be in December or January.
  • So, with bullion dropping (can I say that here?), what can we expect in the platinum coin market.

    Probably a big drop in supply - as some have observed.

    Mostly buy-it-now or reserve auctions on ebay.

    People are going to be reluctant to sell unless absolutely necessary.

    They held from $2200 to $1800 to $1500 to $1300 to $1150. why sell now?

    The people who can afford to will likely continue to hold and hope that platinum rebounds.

    Still, platinum's achilles heel has always been and continues to be a lack of demand.

    The collector base shrank dramatically as bullion went up.

    Now that bullion is declining, will the base start to grow?

    I actually don't think it will, at least not in these market conditions.

    The same factors that are driving the decline in bullion price -- tight credit, job uncertainty, expected decline in industry -- don't give me much hope that we will see a big influx of new collectors if the Mint reprices lower or issues the 2009 platinums at dramatically lower prices.

    If that does happen, well, that can only be a good thing for the current keys.

    But I'm a pessimist by nature, and I think that collectors who were driven away as platinum skyrocketed will hesitate to return now that it's declined.

    Long term, who knows?

    I've heard the Pan Pacific gold comparisons before, but I feel like coin collecting as a whole is going to be a lot different over the next few decades than it was from 1915 to 2008. I don't have any figures or research to back this up, but my impression is that coin collecting as a hobby grew tremendously during that time. Now people are more likely to pay with plastic than cash; my gut tells me that this is going to hurt coin collecting as a whole; our emotional relationship with coins, especially moderns, is going to change. (no pun intended).

    On top of that, the Mint's dramatic increase in products is making things worse.

    For those who might care for my long-winded analysis on this, here are my thoughts:

    Too many Mint issues dilute the market
    I've opined before, the huge number of coins issued by the Mint in recent years is not a good thing -- it fractionalizes the collector base and marginalizes the niche that they collect. Same thing with this message board -- we were once part of the general population, and now PMs are a separate group. Feels like the dynamic aspect of the forum has suffered, and maybe we've all lost a little because of it.

    I think Gold modern collectors are next to suffer
    The Mint issues right now are overwhelming. Just on the gold coins, we have Buffalo golds, first spouse golds, american eagle golds (and soon a high relief gold coin).
    Some people respond to this observation by defending one series or another. That isn't my point. Sure, the buffalos are nice looking coins, and maybe there are good reasons to look at the First Spouse coins. But there is only so much money available in the collector market. A lot of collectors can't afford to buy, or aren't interested in buying, all three series, so they pick one and focus on that.

    The Mint has take what used to be one very solid collector base- American Eagle Golds - and effectively split it into 3 groups. Some of the longer standing American Eagle collectors will stick with those. But some will switch to Buffalo or First Spouse golds, and stop buying American Eagles. I expect that there won't be a lot of cross polinization of the different collector bases. The keys for American Eagle golds are likely to be replaced- lower demand means lower sales/mintages. On top of that, some existing American Eagle collectors will sell their current holdings to fund their new interest. If that happens, existing keys will become more available and prices will decline. The price decline, coupled with the decline caused by a fractionalized collector base, will feed off one another, and demoralize the remaining collectors caught in an ugly spiral.

    Are platinums the 2 cent coins of tomorrow?
    Seems to me that has happened with the platinums (and yes- it's not a perfect analogy - platinum is a completely different creature from gold). For platinums, things were okay through 2006... the shrinking demand dynamic, which was primarily bullion-based, was almost under control - 2004 proofs were a bottom, and 2005 demand was a little higher. We enjoyed a short-lived stablization of the base. Then in 2006, the Mint, in its wisdom, tossed another coin into the platinum seas.

    The changing reverse burnished uncirculateds starting with the 2006 w. Now proof collectors could stick with proofs, or switch to uncirculateds, or double down and try to do both. Those uncirculateds didn't do so well the first year; not too many people were paying attention to platinum to begin with, and the Mint did a lousy job marketing them/differentiating them. We ended up with 2006 w mintages that were so far below recent figures it seemed hard to believe. 2007 ws increased somewhat. It's hard to guess what impact these coins had on the demand/sales for the proofs, though the expectation is that at least some of the uncirculated sales were at a cost to the proofs. Still, we had some stablization in the keys. 2004s for proofs, 2006 ws for uncirculateds. It felt like we could grow from there.

    But 2008 has been a game-changer. The continued uncertainty about keys, the high cost barrier to entry, the lack of a stable collector base and the fractionalization of what base there is are all really taking their toll on this corner of the hobby. If the Mint decided to pull the plug on platinums at the end of this year, would we see more collectors take interest? I'm not sure that we will. No offense to those who collect 2 cent or 3 cent coins, but I feel like that's where we could be headed; a small group of dedicated collectors of an obsolete issue.

    2008: a stake through the heart of platinum collectors
    Then 2008 bullion exploded. There was no way to see that coming-- the Mint had priced the coins in the stratosphere, and then platinum tanked. 2008 numbers are going to be insanely low if they don't reopen sales. There's still no word on what the Mint will do. If it reprices to market, the price drop will be huge. Some who purchased early will probably feel a little bitter. If the Mint doesn't reprice, those who bought early will have hit the lottery -maybe- if there are any collectors left to care.
    Theory isn't perfect; we can't discount the effect of larger market forces
    It's difficult to address the numismatic aspects of the hobby without taking into account the metals market, since the fluctuation in bullion can dramatically impact affordability, collectibility and mintages. On top of that, the economy as a whole has an impact. Cheap credit frees funds to buy coins. Low unemployment creates a feeling of economic security that does the same thing. Now that credit is tightening, and unemployment is creeping up, that should impact coin sales, and not in a good way.

    Moreover, the facts don't always correspond neatly to the theory. For instance, even with the introduction of the uncirculated w platinums, 2006 and 2007 platinum proof figures did not drop to sub 2004 levels; platinum proof sales probably did not decline on a 1 to 1 ratio based on w uncirculated sales; but it stands to reason that some of the w uncirculated sales were at a cost to the platinum proofs.

    it ain't personal
    Similarly, with gold offerings -- and to borrow a phrase from modern-haters-- we used to have 1 widget - american eagle golds. Then the gold spouse coins were introduced, and there were 2 widgets (really 4 if you break it down by proof and uncirculated versions). Then the Buffalo golds came along. Next up is the high relief gold coins. Don't get me wrong, some of these coins are compelling from a design standpoint - my argument against their existence is not based on the merits of that coin, but on what I expect will be a detrimental effect on the hobby as a whole that will flow from a fractionalized collector base.
    Dan

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