<< <i>Usually when something "crashes" in price, there are "weak" holders of the material who desire to sell, for one reason or another. The amazing thing about the platinum from my perspective is that very little is appearing on the market even with the metal dropping nearly every day (to this point at least). Just the opposite in fact - I now need to fill TWICE as many orders today as a week ago today. Not to mention Proof Gold sets- which is equally hard to obtain and a number of us are now paying close to $150-$200/oz OVER spot to buy today!
Wondercoin >>
Fair enough outlook, Mitch, but a question......for having to fill TWICE as many orders as last week, what is the price being paid or that the people are willing to pay? Sure, with such a huge drop in bullion value, I can see more folks wanting some FOR BULLION LEVEL PRICE. I don't seem them paying what it was months ago or when the item was issued (for recent issues), do you?
Once/if price goes back up, demand will likely decrease.
<< <i>Does anyone have an idea of when the last time was that gold and platinum were so close in price? Is it fairly recent or last century? >>
$100 more than gold has been typical in the past. 1999 is the last time the price was around $100 more. In 1985 the avg. price of gold was $317 and platinum $291. There is a good chart here .
Thanks for the link Does that mean that we have just witnessed a platinum bubble? Or is the dropping price more an indication of a falling/failing economy? What, if anything, does that portend for the future of platinum prices?
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
<< <i>Thanks for the link Does that mean that we have just witnessed a platinum bubble? Or is the dropping price more an indication of a falling/failing economy? What, if anything, does that portend for the future of platinum prices? >>
Experts claim the current break even point (How much it costs to mine,refine,ect to make one ounce) for platinum is $1100 an ounce.
So I would expect production to slow to a crawl or cease all together until the price rebounds.
How long will that take? Months,years, decades I care not to make a guess.
I guess it depends how much platinum is currently available and stockpiled and how long it takes for that amount to be used up.
The current cost of production could drop as well.
For comparison golds current break even point is about $300 and silver $2.30.
<< <i>Thanks for the link Does that mean that we have just witnessed a platinum bubble? Or is the dropping price more an indication of a falling/failing economy? What, if anything, does that portend for the future of platinum prices? >>
Experts claim the current break even point (How much it costs to mine,refine,ect to make one ounce) for platinum is $1100 an ounce.
So I would expect production to slow to a crawl or cease all together until the price rebounds.
How long will that take? Months,years, decades I care not to make a guess.
I guess it depends how much platinum is currently available and stockpiled and how long it takes for that amount to be used up.
The current cost of production could drop as well.
For comparison golds current break even point is about $300 and silver $2.30. >>
Apology this isn't on PM board but as far as Platinum production there is a political element that is hard to calculate. In a normal business if market price remained below production price then production would shut down. In South Africa there is a real adversion to shuting down mines because it would throw a lot of workers out of work with social and economic consequences.
Low price will slow or stop mine expansions but it may be 1-2 years before we see lower output from existing mines. Looks like we are in a surplus state for next 1-2 years baring a repeat of last winters power production problems.
This is the weeks sales report for 10/21/2008 and was tabulated late in the day according to the mint. I asked if these numbers more than likely included sales through noon and they said that they more than likely did. The numbers were run late......for what thats worth.
Now guys we don't know for certain how many 4 coin sets were made but we do know that the material cost was $4000 per set and the material price risk was great and was perceived as such by the mint decision makers. The number of Unc plats may have been influenced further by the almost non existent sales of the proof plats for the two months prior to the unc coming to market. I have been told the 4 coin set inventory was BADLY short struck (<1000) but I have no way of confirming this.
You guys know all I know now and we will all have to make our own call. Either the 4 coin set was low or it was not. If it was in fact short struck then you are looking at coins with mintages that are nothing short of amazing and it will be very nice to have some in your collection for 40 percent over melt. If they had a more normal 2000 coin run then you are looking a price and economy induced low mintage year in the high 2006 "w" class.
Do we know if those numbers are cumulative -- reflecting all sales to date, or do those just represent the sales since Friday?
I was showing 2008 totals before sales reopened at 599, 579, 651 and 1,165 -- including 453 from 4 coin sets.
So if we are adding the set figures in, and the sales are cumulative, we're looking at total sales right now of:
$100 . 881 $50....960 $25....1283 $10....2714
For the $10 and $25, which are no longer available, it leaves open the question of how many sets there are.
If that number is at 1,000, and if the 668 set figure is cumulative, as I suspect it may be, that would put weekend set sales at 215.
If there were 1,000 in inventory, there would be around 800 left.
Based on those assumptions, we could anticipate the mintages to be something like $10... 3,500, $25.... 2,100, with $50 and $100 unknown, presumably within a few hundred coins of the $25.
QUARTERS = 615 ROUGHLY FIXED PLUS ABOUT 1000 4 COIN SETS = 1615 TOTAL QUARTERS TENTHS = 2046 ROUGHLY FIXED PLUS ABOUT 1000 4 COIN SETS = 3046 TOTAL DIMES
AN SO ON.
BUT IT ALL COMES DOWN TO IF THE 1000 SETS IS RIGHT OR WRONG!
THERE IS MAJOR OPPORTUNITY FOR ERROR IN THESE NUMBERS BUT IF THEY ARE EVEN CLOSE?
Assuming all goes well for the 08s (lowest mintage yet) will that force the 06 unc and the 04 PF into the bullion category with no premium?
I'd guess no. The 2006 w are low mintage in their own right. At the time, it seemed inconceivably low, but if we are seriously thinking that the 2008 w $25 coins could have a final mintage of under 1,500... well, it's just a different universe.
Anyway, price is always a function of supply and demand. People who own 2006 ws aren't going to sell for melt with no premium, period. And the mintages, while not as low as we're projecting the 2008s might be, are still plenty low enough to justify a premium to melt.
We're not looking at numbers on the 2008 proofs at this moment, and the assumptions we're basing everything on are sales to date, plus expected Mint inventory and the further expectation that no more will be struck. Still, it's hard to imagine that 2008 proofs won't end up with a significantly lower mintage than the 2004 proofs. We all see this, but most of us just don't have deep enough pockets to try to capitalize on it.
Please keep in mind guys that the 2008 "w" issues could very well still end up in the 2006 "w" gerenal rarity range. 2,000 4 coin sets puts us at 2600-2800 for the quarter.
Are the $25 really closed? I just put one in my cart and it shows "Backordered", whereas the $10 are just plain unavailable. Would they make more if they get enough "Backordered"?
Also lets look at the ratios of 07 to known approximated sell out for the 08s
$10 2007.....3000 coins after 15 percent over order margin and returns $10 2008.....2000 coins bfore 15 percent over order so lets net out 2000/1.15 = 1750
THATS A 40-45 PERCENT DROP
$25 2007....1200 coins after 15 percent over order margin $25 2008.....700 coins before 15 percent over order margin so lets net out 700/1.15=600
THATS A 40-50 PERCENT DROP
LETS ASSUME THE YEAR OVER YEAR NUMBERS FOR ALL OPTIONS ARE STABLE................
okay... I think my head has cleared enough to understand the point.
The initial sales numbers from the time before sales went dark may not capture returns.
I suppose that could be possible. Still, those sales figures aren't very high to begin with.
I can't imagine anyone returning now.
There's only so much one can do in making rational guesses about where mintages will end up... it's not an exact science.
Ballpark, no matter how I look at these, these coins were a no-brainer, and assuming that the reported sales figures Eric just provided are even close to accurate, people who bought them should be pretty happy.
we do know that the material cost was $4000 per set and the material price risk was great and was perceived as such by the mint decision makers. The number of Unc plats may have been influenced further by the almost non existent sales of the proof plats for the two months prior to the unc coming to market. I have been told the 4 coin set inventory was BADLY short struck (<1000) but I have no way of confirming this.
Eric, if this is the case it offers some valuable insight into the Mint's planning and decision-making. We've heard various opinions that the Mint is by law not allowed to take a loss (sell at less than cost) in selling the American Eagles, although the collector versions may be an exception to the wording of the law.
Importantly, if the Mint actually is risk-averse, we might be able to apply this revelation to future situations as they develop.
Also lets look at the ratios of 07 to known approximated sell out for the 08s
$10 2007.....3000 coins after 15 percent over order margin and returns $10 2008.....2000 coins bfore 15 percent over order so lets net out 2000/1.15 = 1750
I'm not understanding what you are showing here.
The 2007 mintage was 5,774 for the Burnished Unc 1/10th ozers, so where did the 3,000 come from? And what is "15 percent over order margin and returns"?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Pricewise, it appears so far that modern gold and silver commems are weathering the financial storm nicely. As an example, the unc. gold Jackie Robinson (mintage 5,000+) is still over $4,000.
I think this is encouraging for the future of the "W" plats, since the attractive changing reverse themes and designs give them some claim to commemorative status - especially compared to their gold and silver counterparts, which have the same, unchanging bullion coin reverse designs from year to year.
If the price of platinum stays low or goes lower, collecting proof and burnished plats will be much a much more affordable hobby than it has been for the past few years. The "precious metal" status of platinum, while not as strong as that for gold and silver, should help its popularity also. So should the low mintages, when compared to current gold and silver offerings. Even in a recession, I think platinum collecting has a lot going for it, which could lead to an increase in the collector base, as well as in demand for the keys.
2007 $10 UNC "W" TOTAL = 5700 -2700 4 coin sets so 2007 single issue dimes net out to about 3000 coins.
2008 sales = 2048 and that includes the standard over orders held so the mint can find homes for the returns that they are expecting. Thus 2000/1.15 = 1750 actual coins to sell as single issues and 2000 orders for single issues were taken. These numbers are no where close to perfect just general outlines.
The tenth-ounce burnished "W" Buffalo gold may be close to a sellout.
"Product will be available for shipping 11/06/2008".
The fractional buffalos have no bullion counterparts, so the 2008 burnished and proof fractionals will be the only ones of that date available in the future.
My personal opinion: I think it's unlikely that 2008 proof mintages will be higher than 2004s.
The 2008 proofs are starting off at a substantial deficit. On top of that, the w uncirculateds are likely competing for the same dollars, and the primary focus has been on those. Assuming the Mint doesn't make any more, I'd think it unlikely that they are sitting on the 3,000+ coins per denomination that would be required to catapult the 2008 numbers higher than the 2004s.
The funny thing is that in tracking Plat sales on ebay, practically none of the recent auctions for any common dates in the 1 oz. or 1/2 oz. sizes are as reasonably-priced as the 2008 coins on sale right now!
Besides that, there are very few true auctions being offered. I'd say that over 95% of the auctions I scan are buy it now or single price listings. It's by no means like it was as recently as a year ago.
Given the choice, for my money, the 2008's far surpass any ebay listings as a reasonable speculation.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Agreed, which is why I returned my original '08 unc plat order when the tide turned. Though this opportunity, whether or not plat continues on its downward spiral, should prove a great investment. (Of course, putting aside the US Mint play factor.)
We received most of our orders today (UNCs). Not all the coins looked good, but most of them look like fresh coins. A couple of them looked like they have been picked over, the rest look from ok (poor quality) to good looking. I don't think these coins coming into the market are returns (at least not all). Some might be, but in my opinion most are fresh...that's my 2 cents...
One of my boxes is hung up in Memphis and they are trying to find it. Argh. I've looked at some of the coins I received today, and I've identified one very nice 1 oz. Unc, a fairly nice 1 oz. Proof, a couple of fairly nice 1/4 oz. Proofs, a nice 1/10th oz. Unc, and a couple of real doggy 1/2 oz. Proofs.
The frost on the Uncs does look like a major improvement from the previous two years, but it might just be that I lucked out on this order. I'll be taking a much closer look at all of my 2008's over the next couple days, and ranking them against the ones I received earlier.
My 2007 Uncs looked slightly sintered, but the Uncs that I've received so far are very satiny, and look quite nice. I'd like to know how the frost looks on the Unc coins that people are receiving..........
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Guys Given the potential low mintage on these, returning is really not an option. The possibility of a sky high mintage is near 0% on these.....this is the rarity factor. Bullion value will not be a factor in a sub 2006-w mintage issue.
With the lower platinum price for next year the 2009 sales should rise to perhaps 2003 levels. I can see the 2009 Platinum 1/10 coin selling for $99 from the mint.
The problem for the 2008 proof coins left is they are still selling for a huge premium to spot prices. How many people will buy the platinum 4 coin proof sets when there are probably over 2000 left to sell? That amount takes 4 months to sell off in normal sales.
Maybe the mint will pull these coins off again and lower prices on us.
Comments
Thanks, GrandAm
Numismatic News does a fairly good job of reporting mintage data on a weekly basis.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Usually when something "crashes" in price, there are "weak" holders of the material who desire to sell, for one reason or another. The amazing thing about the platinum from my perspective is that very little is appearing on the market even with the metal dropping nearly every day (to this point at least). Just the opposite in fact - I now need to fill TWICE as many orders today as a week ago today. Not to mention Proof Gold sets- which is equally hard to obtain and a number of us are now paying close to $150-$200/oz OVER spot to buy today!
Wondercoin >>
Fair enough outlook, Mitch, but a question......for having to fill TWICE as many orders as last week, what is the price being paid or that the people are willing to pay?
Sure, with such a huge drop in bullion value, I can see more folks wanting some FOR BULLION LEVEL PRICE. I don't seem them paying what it was months ago or when the item was issued (for recent issues), do you?
Once/if price goes back up, demand will likely decrease.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>THE 2008 "W" UNC $25 PLATS ARE DEAD! HOPE YOU BOUGHT SOME >>
yes i did
funny thing is the second order shipped and first order still pending??? strange
<< <i>Eric, I added a quarter and a half. Half is still in stock and quarter is backordered..we'll see.
Ren >>
I hope you get them both Ren
Erij96
Wondercoin
<< <i>Does anyone have an idea of when the last time was that gold and platinum were so close in price? Is it fairly recent or last century?
$100 more than gold has been typical in the past. 1999 is the last time the price was around $100 more.
In 1985 the avg. price of gold was $317 and platinum $291.
There is a good chart here .
<< <i>Thanks for the link
Experts claim the current break even point (How much it costs to mine,refine,ect to make one ounce) for platinum is $1100 an ounce.
So I would expect production to slow to a crawl or cease all together until the price rebounds.
How long will that take? Months,years, decades I care not to make a guess.
I guess it depends how much platinum is currently available and stockpiled and how long it takes for that amount to be used up.
The current cost of production could drop as well.
For comparison golds current break even point is about $300 and silver $2.30.
<< <i>
<< <i>Thanks for the link
Experts claim the current break even point (How much it costs to mine,refine,ect to make one ounce) for platinum is $1100 an ounce.
So I would expect production to slow to a crawl or cease all together until the price rebounds.
How long will that take? Months,years, decades I care not to make a guess.
I guess it depends how much platinum is currently available and stockpiled and how long it takes for that amount to be used up.
The current cost of production could drop as well.
For comparison golds current break even point is about $300 and silver $2.30. >>
Apology this isn't on PM board but as far as Platinum production there is a political element that is hard to calculate. In a normal business if market price remained below production price then production would shut down. In South Africa there is a real adversion to shuting down mines because it would throw a lot of workers out of work with social and economic consequences.
Low price will slow or stop mine expansions but it may be 1-2 years before we see lower output from existing mines. Looks like we are in a surplus state for next 1-2 years baring a repeat of last winters power production problems.
Ren
This is the weeks sales report for 10/21/2008 and was tabulated late in the day according to the mint. I asked if these numbers more than likely included sales through noon and they said that they more than likely did. The numbers were run late......for what thats worth.
UNC "W" PLATINUM EAGLES
$100...213
$50...292
$25...615 closed
$10...2046 closed
4 coin sets ...668
Now guys we don't know for certain how many 4 coin sets were made but we do know that the material cost was $4000 per set and the material price risk was great and was perceived as such by the mint decision makers. The number of Unc plats may have been influenced further by the almost non existent sales of the proof plats for the two months prior to the unc coming to market. I have been told the 4 coin set inventory was BADLY short struck (<1000) but I have no way of confirming this.
You guys know all I know now and we will all have to make our own call. Either the 4 coin set was low or it was not. If it was in fact short struck then you are looking at coins with mintages that are nothing short of amazing and it will be very nice to have some in your collection for 40 percent over melt. If they had a more normal 2000 coin run then you are looking a price and economy induced low mintage year in the high 2006 "w" class.
Thats the best I can do for you guys.
Best Wishes,
Ericj96
Let's hope for crazy low mintages on the 4-coin UNC set.
Were the above numbers sales of the uncirculated or proof coins (and sets)?
Thanks!
Do we know if those numbers are cumulative -- reflecting all sales to date, or do those just represent the sales since Friday?
I was showing 2008 totals before sales reopened at 599, 579, 651 and 1,165 -- including 453 from 4 coin sets.
So if we are adding the set figures in, and the sales are cumulative, we're looking at total sales right now of:
$100 . 881
$50....960
$25....1283
$10....2714
For the $10 and $25, which are no longer available, it leaves open the question of how many sets there are.
If that number is at 1,000, and if the 668 set figure is cumulative, as I suspect it may be, that would put weekend set sales at 215.
If there were 1,000 in inventory, there would be around 800 left.
Based on those assumptions, we could anticipate the mintages to be something like $10... 3,500, $25.... 2,100, with $50 and $100 unknown, presumably within a few hundred coins of the $25.
1.........213+668=881
.5........292+668=960
.25......615+668=1283
.1........2046+668=2714
QUARTERS = 615 ROUGHLY FIXED PLUS ABOUT 1000 4 COIN SETS = 1615 TOTAL QUARTERS
TENTHS = 2046 ROUGHLY FIXED PLUS ABOUT 1000 4 COIN SETS = 3046 TOTAL DIMES
AN SO ON.
BUT IT ALL COMES DOWN TO IF THE 1000 SETS IS RIGHT OR WRONG!
THERE IS MAJOR OPPORTUNITY FOR ERROR IN THESE NUMBERS BUT IF THEY ARE EVEN CLOSE?
I'd guess no. The 2006 w are low mintage in their own right. At the time, it seemed inconceivably low, but if we are seriously thinking that the 2008 w $25 coins could have a final mintage of under 1,500... well, it's just a different universe.
Anyway, price is always a function of supply and demand. People who own 2006 ws aren't going to sell for melt with no premium, period. And the mintages, while not as low as we're projecting the 2008s might be, are still plenty low enough to justify a premium to melt.
We're not looking at numbers on the 2008 proofs at this moment, and the assumptions we're basing everything on are sales to date, plus expected Mint inventory and the further expectation that no more will be struck. Still, it's hard to imagine that 2008 proofs won't end up with a significantly lower mintage than the 2004 proofs. We all see this, but most of us just don't have deep enough pockets to try to capitalize on it.
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
what? seriously? don't forget the "many" returned items? what do you project those numbers to be?
Also lets look at the ratios of 07 to known approximated sell out for the 08s
$10 2007.....3000 coins after 15 percent over order margin and returns
$10 2008.....2000 coins bfore 15 percent over order so lets net out 2000/1.15 = 1750
THATS A 40-45 PERCENT DROP
$25 2007....1200 coins after 15 percent over order margin
$25 2008.....700 coins before 15 percent over order margin so lets net out 700/1.15=600
THATS A 40-50 PERCENT DROP
LETS ASSUME THE YEAR OVER YEAR NUMBERS FOR ALL OPTIONS ARE STABLE................
4000X.55=2200
3500X.55=1900
3700X55=2000
5700X.55=3100
The bottom line is 2000 quarters and halves is not a crazy hope.
The initial sales numbers from the time before sales went dark may not capture returns.
I suppose that could be possible. Still, those sales figures aren't very high to begin with.
I can't imagine anyone returning now.
There's only so much one can do in making rational guesses about where mintages will end up... it's not an exact science.
Ballpark, no matter how I look at these, these coins were a no-brainer, and assuming that the reported sales figures Eric just provided are even close to accurate, people who bought them should be pretty happy.
Eric, if this is the case it offers some valuable insight into the Mint's planning and decision-making. We've heard various opinions that the Mint is by law not allowed to take a loss (sell at less than cost) in selling the American Eagles, although the collector versions may be an exception to the wording of the law.
Importantly, if the Mint actually is risk-averse, we might be able to apply this revelation to future situations as they develop.
Also lets look at the ratios of 07 to known approximated sell out for the 08s
$10 2007.....3000 coins after 15 percent over order margin and returns
$10 2008.....2000 coins bfore 15 percent over order so lets net out 2000/1.15 = 1750
I'm not understanding what you are showing here.
The 2007 mintage was 5,774 for the Burnished Unc 1/10th ozers, so where did the 3,000 come from? And what is "15 percent over order margin and returns"?
I knew it would happen.
Pricewise, it appears so far that modern gold and silver commems are weathering the financial storm nicely. As an example, the unc. gold Jackie Robinson (mintage 5,000+) is still over $4,000.
I think this is encouraging for the future of the "W" plats, since the attractive changing reverse themes and designs give them some claim to commemorative status - especially compared to their gold and silver counterparts, which have the same, unchanging bullion coin reverse designs from year to year.
If the price of platinum stays low or goes lower, collecting proof and burnished plats will be much a much more affordable hobby than it has been for the past few years. The "precious metal" status of platinum, while not as strong as that for gold and silver, should help its popularity also. So should the low mintages, when compared to current gold and silver offerings. Even in a recession, I think platinum collecting has a lot going for it, which could lead to an increase in the collector base, as well as in demand for the keys.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
-2700 4 coin sets so 2007 single issue dimes net out to about 3000 coins.
2008 sales = 2048 and that includes the standard over orders held so the mint can find homes for the returns that they are expecting. Thus 2000/1.15 = 1750 actual coins to sell as single issues and 2000 orders for single issues were taken. These numbers are no where close to perfect just general outlines.
Ericj96
What are your thoughts on buying Proofs?
As always, thanks very much for all of your excellent commentary!!!!
"Product will be available for shipping 11/06/2008".
The fractional buffalos have no bullion counterparts, so the 2008 burnished and proof fractionals will be the only ones of that date available in the future.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Great Post. Confirming what I've believed all along.
Let's see those 4 cn sets sellout at 1000!!!!
<< <i>Ericj96-
What are your thoughts on buying Proofs?
As always, thanks very much for all of your excellent commentary!!!! >>
I'm not Eric but If I could afford it I would snatch up the 4-coin Proof set.
I see very little down side.
The 2008 proofs are starting off at a substantial deficit. On top of that, the w uncirculateds are likely competing for the same dollars, and the primary focus has been on those. Assuming the Mint doesn't make any more, I'd think it unlikely that they are sitting on the 3,000+ coins per denomination that would be required to catapult the 2008 numbers higher than the 2004s.
Besides that, there are very few true auctions being offered. I'd say that over 95% of the auctions I scan are buy it now or single price listings. It's by no means like it was as recently as a year ago.
Given the choice, for my money, the 2008's far surpass any ebay listings as a reasonable speculation.
I knew it would happen.
And just yesterday, I was considering cancelling my orders if platinum dropped. At least there's about 27 days left to ponder the mintages.
I knew it would happen.
The frost on the Uncs does look like a major improvement from the previous two years, but it might just be that I lucked out on this order. I'll be taking a much closer look at all of my 2008's over the next couple days, and ranking them against the ones I received earlier.
My 2007 Uncs looked slightly sintered, but the Uncs that I've received so far are very satiny, and look quite nice. I'd like to know how the frost looks on the Unc coins that people are receiving..........
I knew it would happen.
Given the potential low mintage on these, returning is really not an option. The possibility of a sky high mintage is near 0% on these.....this is the rarity factor.
Bullion value will not be a factor in a sub 2006-w mintage issue.
The problem for the 2008 proof coins left is they are still selling for a huge premium to spot prices. How many people will buy the platinum 4 coin proof sets when there are probably over 2000 left to sell? That amount takes 4 months to sell off in normal sales.
Maybe the mint will pull these coins off again and lower prices on us.
The problem with your comment is "there are probably more than 2000 sets left to sell" -
we dont think so. you could be over estimating by 1000 sets.