Ok guy, regarding the 2008W factional Buff's, do you think they have matured at this point and the y only real change in value will be PM prices? I saw that some are under the impression that being unique, their value would decrease if the Mint started producing the factional Buff’s again. Personally, I believe their prices may increase because there may be a new following that would want to have the whole series. They are a desirable patter (much so than the 1st spouse coins) and I could see a collector deciding to build a collection of each date.
Regardless of the price of gold, the Mint will sell more of the 2013 buffs than they did in 2008. A significantly lower minted 2013 is the only way the 2008's will be hurt--NOT GONNA HAPPEN!
That said, the 2013 will be popular, and popular drives price.
<< <i>Regardless of the price of gold, the Mint will sell more of the 2013 buffs than they did in 2008. A significantly lower minted 2013 is the only way the 2008's will be hurt--NOT GONNA HAPPEN!
That said, the 2013 will be popular, and popular drives price. >>
Are you saying this because 2013 is the centennial of Frasier's 1913 Indian Head/Buffalo nickel?
Ok guy, regarding the 2008W factional Buff's, do you think they have matured at this point and the y only real change in value will be PM prices? I saw that some are under the impression that being unique, their value would decrease if the Mint started producing the factional Buff’s again. Personally, I believe their prices may increase because there may be a new following that would want to have the whole series. They are a desirable patter (much so than the 1st spouse coins) and I could see a collector deciding to build a collection of each date.
Thoughts? >>
Thanks for everyone for the welcome!
OK, so the way my mind works is I try to lay out the facts as we know them, and come to as reasonable a theory as possible. For me it is no different with pricing models and predictions of coins. So here's what we know:
1. Fractional Buffaloes were only issued in 2008 thus far. 2. The $50 W UNC and PR had mintages of 9,074 and 18,863 respectively, the lowest by far. Keep in mind that I am going by my database and I haven't updated it in a year or so. I mention the mintages of the $50 because that potentially pulls people toward 2008 as well, as it's the only consistent denomination spanning the years of release. 3. They are made of gold. This is often overlooked but it is absolutely the most important intrinsic quality. (This is also why, IMHO, plats will never be the Kings as predicted by so many. Platinum is not money and never will be because it is too scarce to serve as money. As J.P. Morgan once said, gold is money and nothing else. There is no changing this unspoken, almost subconscious element of the last 5,000 years of human history.) 4. Fraser's design is pleasing to collectors. 5. If future releases occurred, they would (obviously) not be the first release. 6. If future releases occurred, the price of the underlying metal would absolutely play a factor in mintages. 7. If future releases occurred, the state of the economy would play a factor in mintages.
Just some random thoughts, and the way my mind works as I drive home every afternoon. So Buffaloes are attractive, made of pleasing metal, and would likely never do poorly. In other words, there is an unwritten floor. I would say that the 2008s are likely not in danger unless the price of gold hits, say, $2300-$2500 an ounce next year (and assuming they are released next year).
Hi, Keep in mind that the reason the 08 fractional buffs did so well is because they didn't do so well !........only after the mint stated they would discontinue did they fly off the shelfs........and the mint sold what they had in stock and did not make any others because of low demand. If there is low or little demand for 2013's you can expect the same and PRICE will be a big factor which might cause some to hesitate while watching gold prices for price drops........my 2 cents.
I would posit that the economy was more of a factor in terms of initial Buffalo success than anything else. Not the only reason of course, as you mentioned the other big one.
I do believe that we are in another recession at least with a begin date of this quarter or last. Depending on when we come out of it, depending on the speculation becoming reality with releases in 2013, and depending on price of gold...all of these factors will allow us to fill some variables in the mathematical equation.
<< <i>Hi, Keep in mind that the reason the 08 fractional buffs did so well is because they didn't do so well !........only after the mint stated they would discontinue did they fly off the shelfs........and the mint sold what they had in stock and did not make any others because of low demand. If there is low or little demand for 2013's you can expect the same and PRICE will be a big factor which might cause some to hesitate while watching gold prices for price drops........my 2 cents. >>
The 2008 Buffs came out during the absolute lows of the economic crisis (not the low in the stock market, but certainly the lows of the uncertainty over the economy and its possible collapse). It took a lot of guts to stick one's neck out and buy something frivolous when everything around was collapsing, including precious metals. That, in my opinion, is what caused the low demand for the 2008 Buffs. I held my breath and bought a set of each. I wish I would have had more guts...
The 2008 Buffs came out during the absolute lows of the economic crisis (not the low in the stock market, but certainly the lows of the uncertainty over the economy and its possible collapse). It took a lot of guts to stick one's neck out and buy something frivolous when everything around was collapsing, including precious metals. That, in my opinion, is what caused the low demand for the 2008 Buffs. I held my breath and bought a set of each. I wish I would have had more guts... >>
That may have had an influence but I think another large influence was the fact that the Mint was offering a lot of products that year and it just overwhelmed the customer.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Because of the discussion about a possible 2013 Buffalo set, I decided to check my file of US Mint invoices from 2008.
I remember 2008 as a volatile year of rising and falling precious metal prices. Also with the US Mint's then 30 day return policy, this was a way that if the prices dropped, you could return your set and get another set for a lower price. I even remember a post by Wondercoin where he tried to get the US Mint to give him a refund and not have to return the coins and then re-order them. What a wild year 2008 was. When the US Mint changed its return policy to 7 days, that ended that speculative precious metals play.
I even remember that because of the volatility in gold prices. - - I returned a 2008 Buffalo 4 coin proof set purchased at $2,219.95 in late July 2008, - - and then bought the same set for $2,005.45 in November 2008, which was decrease of $214.50.
If the 2013 Buffalo 4 pc proof set came out today at same gold price today, it would probably be close to the $3,770.50 of the 2012 AGE 4 coin proof set. This is 88% increase over the price of my 2008 set. No one can predict the prices of precious metals next year.
Since I like the Buffalo design, I know I would buy the 2013 Buffalo set, if it is minted unless the price is just prohibitively expensive.
In 2008 if you returned your initial Platinum Eagle order, you could buy them later at almost 50% off. Problem is, nobody knew that would happen at the time.
Regarding scrap rates, does anyone know what the typical scrap rates are for various alloys, and how much difference does the size of the planchet make?
Is .900 gold easier for some reason than .999 gold?
I would think that proof scrap rates would be higher than unc scrap rates, but ericj's prior post seem to indicate that isn't the case with the spouses. They didn't seem to have QC problems with the fractional gold Buffs, did they?
Curiouser and curiouser it gets.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The thing about those plats that I remember is the platinum prices were way too high initially and that is why sales were very low, then i think because of falling prices over time they kept pulling the coins off sale for long periods so they probably did not strike any more coins.
Then the first coins started to sell out and everybody jumped in at the fire sale prices. The coins were mostly hoarded by dealers and flippers and they sold on Ebay forever.
Somewhere buried in here are the scrap rates for all the 2008 gold coins, the buffalo I think had high rates for the proofs but I can't remember exactly. 7/8 or someone posted the FOIA request they got back will all the numbers.
Also as we know back then in 2008 the mint did not have its current pricing policy of possible weekly changes, instead they kept the same price and if prices moved enough they had to pull the product and then wait a couple weeks to figure out the new price. That is why some sold less coins than was possible.
Mitch you are one of the most competent collectors/dealers I know. You should try your hand at writing articles. I think you could do a very fine job of it.....
I actually just assisted Lauren and Justin with writing an article for CU that was emailed to their roughly 85,000 collectors a couple weeks ago.
Check it out...
"'IT'S LADIES NIGHT AND TWO HOT NUMBERS ARE AT THE PARTY".
Also, back in July, I was invited to Asia to consult on a paid Newsletter that discusses precious metals plays (usually stocks) including interesting modern bullion coins.
So, I have stayed busy
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Here it is Eric (without the pics that did not come through):
It's Ladies Night and Two Hot Numbers are at the Party
- October 23, 2012
Their names are Lucy and Lucretia and they are certainly two "hot numbers". And now a number of the country's top coin dealers, as well as numerous dedicated collectors of the gold spouse series, are seriously pursuing them. And, to be clear, we are not talking about two "ordinary" First ladies here. We are referring to what may be a pair of the lowest mintage regular issue coins that have ever been struck by the US Mint in over 95 years! These two coins are none other than the 2011-W Lucretia Garfield and Lucy Hayes Mint State $10 Spouse Gold coins. Let's look a little closer at these two coins.
First, the Lucretia Garfield Mint State Spouse coins were put on sale for the first time on December 01, 2011 and the Mint unexpectedly removed them from their available products page and listed them as being "No Longer Available" for sale on August 09, 2012 (prior to the Mint State Julia Grant spouse coins which went on sale ahead of both the Garfield and Hayes coins). While the last sales figure from the Mint purportedly showed that 2,498 of the Garfield coins were ordered, because collectors and dealers had the better part of a week to order these coins once the Mint pulled the Lucy Hayes pieces (see below), our research suggests that while a whopping nearly (500) units were actually ordered in that approximately one week time span only a fraction of those coin orders were actually consummated by the Mint. Consider that in the nearly eight months the coin was on sale at the Mint, the Mint had sold less than 2,000 pieces in all of that time combined. Yet, nearly (500) units showed as ordered and appear to have been included in the Mint's final sales report issued on this coin before showing it in the weekly sales reports as "no long available."
Merely placing these orders totaling (500) coins and actually getting those orders approved and fulfilled by the Mint are two entirely different things. Many collectors and dealers have reported their orders cancelled on these Garfield coins even though the orders were placed at a time the Mint was still offering the coins (on backorder) and these customers were provided with tracking numbers and confirmations that the orders were properly placed. For example, one collector confirmed with us that he had ordered (70) Garfield coins before the Mint shut off the sales, but all three of his separate Mint orders totaling (70) Mint State Garfield units were recently cancelled by the Mint. It is not likely that the Mint will report final audited mintage figures for this coin until around Thanksgiving, 2013, but these authors would not be surprised if the final mintage figure came in around 2,250 or so after the Mint takes into account the cancelled orders and any product returns. Again, the Mint shows the unaudited mintage figure currently at 2,498.
The Lucy Hayes Mint State Spouse coins first became available on September 01, 2011. The Mint also unexpectedly removed them from their available status on August 06, 2012 ahead of the termination of sales of the Lucy Grant Mint State coins, despite Lucy Grant having been a prior released spouse coin for the 2011 year. Following an eleven month offering period, the last sales figure provided by the Mint showed that 2,260 coins were ordered. The Mint had roughly just a day or so between "backordering" the coin and shutting off sales entirely and, as such, these authors do not expect that unaudited mintage figure to drop all that dramatically in the future.
The Mint sold close to 3,000 of the Eliza Johnson and Julia Grant Mint State 2011 Spouse coins before those coins were officially "sold out" by the Mint. These were the first and second spouse coins of the 2011 four-coin series. Logically, it would make sense that if the Mint determined demand had softened on this series and elected to only produce about 2,300 or so Mint State Hayes coins (the 3rd coin in the 2011 series), that it would, likewise, produce roughly 2,300 of the Mint State Garfield coins that followed it as the fourth coin in the series. As such, these authors believe it would probably be logical that the Mint produced a roughly equal amount of the Mint State Hayes and Garfield coins. Which coin ends up the lower mintage in the end may likely depend upon which one saw the most returns from the buying public over the course of the 8-11 months each coin was on sale.
Obviously, if these authors' hypothesis is correct and each of these coins ends up at a final official mintage of roughly 2,250 about a year from now, it would result in both of these coins being the two lowest mintage regular issue struck coins by the U.S. Mint from 1915 to date. In the "top three" would also be the 2008-W $50 Burnished Platinum Eagle, which has an official mintage of 2,253 making it (currently) the lowest mintage coin since 1915. There again, we recall that the official mintage of 2,253 was a significant drop from the previously unaudited order figure the Mint released about a year before finalizing the figures on that Platinum coin.
A word of caution. This is not the first time a U.S. Spouse Gold coin has potentially been crowned the "Queen of the series." Back in 2009, the Julia Tyler Mint State Gold Spouse coin ended up with an official mintage of 3,143 (finalized in late-2010 by the Mint). For nearly two years, that coin was the lowest mintage Gold Spouse coin and, to this day, the coin sells for roughly a $400 - $500 premium to many other spouse coins with higher mintages. That Julia Tyler mintage has now been "blown away" by both the Lucy Hayes and Lucretia Garfield Mint State coins (yet, interestingly, these authors have seen little erosion of the premium being paid for Julia Tyler coins to this point). Likewise, it is certainly not out of the question that a 2012 or 2013 gold spouse mintage comes in even lower than Hayes or Garfield. There are a number of coins in the series coming up in 2012 and 2013 that are by no means "household names" (did we even learn about Alice Paul in our History classes in Jr. High School as I surely needed a refresher on why she is appearing as Chester Arthur's rendition of Liberty this year). And speaking of the four coin "Liberty subset" in both Mint State and Proof – while these (8) total coins are certainly not the lowest mintage pieces in the entire spouse series, they are surely the most popular to date in our view.
Indeed, many spouse coins now have a combination of scarcity and demand, especially where particular examples also carry a very low mintage, such as the Lucy Hayes and Lucretia Garfield coins. Additionally, the eight coins in the Liberty (spouse) subset are now extremely popular among collectors and also have relatively low mintages overall. It appears to these authors that the Spouse series is beginning to take on a sort of contrarian following when one considers that these low mintages were the result of very few collectors and dealers buying the coins from the Mint in the first place over the past four years.
While we wait for the Mint's final audited report on the Hayes and Garfield Mint State coins, these two "hot numbers" may get collectors even more heated up for the spouse series.
Mitch, Lauren & Justin Spivack, Wondercoins.com
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
There has been a lot going on - 2012 W $50 AGE UNC sell out, SSB $5 Unc. on B/O - and some great threads about both.
Within these threads there is much speculation about whether the mintages will just continue to go lower, whether the SSB Unc is done and, after so many years, the Jackie Unc is unseated, etc.
We all read the great article the Mitch helped to write. How low will the spouses go??
I, and I'm sure many others, would love to hear your thoughts on the above.
A "collector" ordering SEVENTY of one issue? Methinks flipper!!
Quite possible the reason for no drop in Tyler prices is that there are few sales to document actual prices. Speaking of which, what comprises an actual secondary market sale that can be documented? I still wonder the relevance of mintages of these "coins" as few of us (even enthusiastic spastic collectors of modern mint schlock like me) get excited about such, and still are not even if mintages come in at 2,000.
And not being a naysayer, just that I think the series is felt by many to be a new "low water mark" for the US Mint.
One more thing: before these bits get touted and flounced up some more, please be aware that the lowest mintage US issues are the Boone Bicentennial coins, where there are several in the 2000-2100 mintage range in a MUCH more widely collected series (also IMO).
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Good article, Mitch! This is a fun series to watch, even from the sidelines. I wouldn't really expect it to gel until after the series is completed, but even then join in the curiosity about what will happen. Hard to imagine even a couple of hundred people in the country wanting the entire series, though easy to imagine several thousand chasing the low-mintage "queens"--until they are dethroned, of course. Keep the speculation rabid!
P.S. Can anyone post sales of the Alice Paul coin to date? Thanks!
Really, how low can mintages go? Are the mintages a reflection of a bad economy, or are they because of an over-proliferation of stuff from the Mint?
Regardless of which is the real cause, these low mintages reflect a much smaller market. Smaller markets aren't necessarily bad, and when you consider that the price of gold is the support level, there are worse things to speculate in.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
IMO these low mintages suggest a real contraction in the collector base for gold and platinum based modern mint products.
Gold eagles............bullion-proof-burnished? Commemorative gold...........which politically correct person or event do we celebrate today? Buffalo gold................? Platinum eagle slugs? Previously unknown wife of forgotten president??
After you decide on above do you then belly up big bucks for a FS american flag??
Which do you chase or is best move just not to play??
I sense more and more are quiting the game.
P.S.................Isn't tomorrow new spouse day??
<< <i>Yes, Frances the 1st term is scheduled to be released tomorrow. Anyone with a tingle up their leg about this? >>
The original Frances 1st term design looks nice. I thought, finally, a nice looking first spouse coin besides Julia Tyler. But when I look at the image of the coin from the Mint website, it looks much worse. Maybe, they have to be consistent
<< <i>Here is a question...............Why would we have any reason to expect demand to go up for FS coins in next year or so??
What would drive an increased demand??
If we can't answer that in an affirmative fashion then mintages will likely remain very low. >>
More disposable income but that ain't-a-gonna happen in my opinion. We may be floundering in the 2k to 3k range for quite a while with some slight bumps for some of the more popular ones. Probably half of those will be flippers playing the grading game for those who want one graded but do not want to submit.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I also can't see demand increasing. I think our economy will stabilize, but at a lower level than we've seen in the past. There's just too many people and not enough highly-skilled jobs to go around. This is something that will continue on a worldwide scale until the population stabilizes, and we've been more fortunate than most in the U.S. to be doing as well as we are. Still, it's not a rosy picture for Mint product demand, especially when they continue to favor, as some here have pointed out, idealogical/PC coin themes over beautiful, inspirational design.
In the gov's seemingly unquenchable quest for more doe they seem to have their targets on the upper income people and those are generally the best Mint customers especially for those pricey gold and platinum coins. We could see sales sub 2000 on the uncs if you ask me.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I believe the article certainly gave a "fair warning" regarding chasing any spouse coin on the hopes and dreams it will be the lowest mintage coin in the series. The U.S. Mint has already thrown us enough "curveballs" in the first five years to potentially be on guard for a few more in the next two or three years.
But, it is certainly not just spouse coins that fall into that potential trap. It can also be burnished gold or platinum coins or even the $5 Gold Commem series that is now about 26 years old. If anyone is convinced the SSB will be the lowest mintage (or even that Jackie will remain the "King") of the $5 gold commem series, then stay tuned for the "generals" in 2013. This is a real great time to be offering generals on gold coins don't you think! Raufus suggested on another thread the witty idea of the companion series of the generals' mistresses. I suspect they could even outsell Alice Paul if push came to shove. LOL.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I believe the article certainly gave a "fair warning" regarding chasing any spouse coin on the hopes and dreams it will be the lowest mintage coin in the series. The U.S. Mint has already thrown us enough "curveballs" in the first five years to potentially be on guard for a few more in the next two or three years.
But, it is certainly not just spouse coins that fall into that potential trap. It can also be burnished gold or platinum coins or even the $5 Gold Commem series that is now about 26 years old. If anyone is convinced the SSB will be the lowest mintage (or even that Jackie will remain the "King") of the $5 gold commem series, then stay tuned for the "generals" in 2013. This is a real great time to be offering generals on gold coins don't you think! Raufus suggested on another thread the witty idea of the companion series of the generals' mistresses. I suspect they could even outsell Alice Paul if push came to shove. LOL.
Wondercoin >>
"Chasing" Spouses? That's what got the General in trouble.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
OMG, hadn't even heard of the Generals. Sounds like something from a South Park episode. Who on earth came up with this??? Is it to be followed by the heads of the General Services Administration? How about the Managing Directors for the IRS? I actually like the recent coins honoring servicemen, but...this?
Speaking of the General's commem it is an unconfirmed rumor that due to the fact that the coin is not considered "inclusive" enough that they are considering changing it to the "Generals and their Privates" commemorative instead. Now this is only a rumor.
Shazam.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I suspect, The same folks who came up with Alice Paul to represent "Liberty" to Chester Arthur as opposed to say the Morgan Dollar design or something like that which could have actually sold a boatload of coins.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
A 2008 W $100 PR70DCAM FS Plat just brought $10K on Feebay.
The same coin in non-FS went for $2753. It never ceases to amaze me just how much folks will pay for the pretty Flag label. Yes, I know, the FS was submitted only once, yada, yada, yada, but on over $7K premium on the plat? Holy cow!
Edited: I just checked. The 2008 W $50 APE PR70DCAM FS has the lowest 70FS pop (26) of any of the 2008 plat proofs (or any of the MS for that matter) and it's the most rare of all plats. I wonder what that would bring in FS. (I really wonder as I lucked out and was able to get one at a good price in 08).
Comments
Ok guy, regarding the 2008W factional Buff's, do you think they have matured at this point and the y only real change in value will be PM prices? I saw that some are under the impression that being unique, their value would decrease if the Mint started producing the factional Buff’s again. Personally, I believe their prices may increase because there may be a new following that would want to have the whole series. They are a desirable patter (much so than the 1st spouse coins) and I could see a collector deciding to build a collection of each date.
Thoughts?
That said, the 2013 will be popular, and popular drives price.
<< <i>Regardless of the price of gold, the Mint will sell more of the 2013 buffs than they did in 2008. A significantly lower minted 2013 is the only way the 2008's will be hurt--NOT GONNA HAPPEN!
That said, the 2013 will be popular, and popular drives price. >>
Are you saying this because 2013 is the centennial of Frasier's 1913 Indian Head/Buffalo nickel?
<< <i>Welcome traelin0!!!!
Ok guy, regarding the 2008W factional Buff's, do you think they have matured at this point and the y only real change in value will be PM prices? I saw that some are under the impression that being unique, their value would decrease if the Mint started producing the factional Buff’s again. Personally, I believe their prices may increase because there may be a new following that would want to have the whole series. They are a desirable patter (much so than the 1st spouse coins) and I could see a collector deciding to build a collection of each date.
Thoughts? >>
Thanks for everyone for the welcome!
OK, so the way my mind works is I try to lay out the facts as we know them, and come to as reasonable a theory as possible. For me it is no different with pricing models and predictions of coins. So here's what we know:
1. Fractional Buffaloes were only issued in 2008 thus far.
2. The $50 W UNC and PR had mintages of 9,074 and 18,863 respectively, the lowest by far. Keep in mind that I am going by my database and I haven't updated it in a year or so. I mention the mintages of the $50 because that potentially pulls people toward 2008 as well, as it's the only consistent denomination spanning the years of release.
3. They are made of gold. This is often overlooked but it is absolutely the most important intrinsic quality. (This is also why, IMHO, plats will never be the Kings as predicted by so many. Platinum is not money and never will be because it is too scarce to serve as money. As J.P. Morgan once said, gold is money and nothing else. There is no changing this unspoken, almost subconscious element of the last 5,000 years of human history.)
4. Fraser's design is pleasing to collectors.
5. If future releases occurred, they would (obviously) not be the first release.
6. If future releases occurred, the price of the underlying metal would absolutely play a factor in mintages.
7. If future releases occurred, the state of the economy would play a factor in mintages.
Just some random thoughts, and the way my mind works as I drive home every afternoon. So Buffaloes are attractive, made of pleasing metal, and would likely never do poorly. In other words, there is an unwritten floor. I would say that the 2008s are likely not in danger unless the price of gold hits, say, $2300-$2500 an ounce next year (and assuming they are released next year).
I do believe that we are in another recession at least with a begin date of this quarter or last. Depending on when we come out of it, depending on the speculation becoming reality with releases in 2013, and depending on price of gold...all of these factors will allow us to fill some variables in the mathematical equation.
<< <i>Hi, Keep in mind that the reason the 08 fractional buffs did so well is because they didn't do so well !........only after the mint stated they would discontinue did they fly off the shelfs........and the mint sold what they had in stock and did not make any others because of low demand. If there is low or little demand for 2013's you can expect the same and PRICE will be a big factor which might cause some to hesitate while watching gold prices for price drops........my 2 cents. >>
The 2008 Buffs came out during the absolute lows of the economic crisis (not the low in the stock market, but certainly the lows of the uncertainty over the economy and its possible collapse). It took a lot of guts to stick one's neck out and buy something frivolous when everything around was collapsing, including precious metals. That, in my opinion, is what caused the low demand for the 2008 Buffs. I held my breath and bought a set of each. I wish I would have had more guts...
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
That may have had an influence but I think another large influence was the fact that the Mint was offering a lot of products that year and it just overwhelmed the customer.
Box of 20
<< <i> I held my breath and bought a set of each. I wish I would have had more guts... >>
I wish I would have kept my two sets longer!!!!
I remember 2008 as a volatile year of rising and falling precious metal prices. Also with the US Mint's then 30 day return policy, this was a way that if the prices dropped, you could return your set and get another set for a lower price. I even remember a post by Wondercoin where he tried to get the US Mint to give him a refund and not have to return the coins and then re-order them. What a wild year 2008 was. When the US Mint changed its return policy to 7 days, that ended that speculative precious metals play.
I even remember that because of the volatility in gold prices.
- - I returned a 2008 Buffalo 4 coin proof set purchased at $2,219.95 in late July 2008,
- - and then bought the same set for $2,005.45 in November 2008, which was decrease of $214.50.
If the 2013 Buffalo 4 pc proof set came out today at same gold price today, it would probably be close to the $3,770.50 of the 2012 AGE 4 coin proof set. This is 88% increase over the price of my 2008 set. No one can predict the prices of precious metals next year.
Since I like the Buffalo design, I know I would buy the 2013 Buffalo set, if it is minted unless the price is just prohibitively expensive.
Regarding scrap rates, does anyone know what the typical scrap rates are for various alloys, and how much difference does the size of the planchet make?
Is .900 gold easier for some reason than .999 gold?
I would think that proof scrap rates would be higher than unc scrap rates, but ericj's prior post seem to indicate that isn't the case with the spouses. They didn't seem to have QC problems with the fractional gold Buffs, did they?
Curiouser and curiouser it gets.
I knew it would happen.
Then the first coins started to sell out and everybody jumped in at the fire sale prices. The coins were mostly hoarded by dealers and flippers and they sold on Ebay forever.
Somewhere buried in here are the scrap rates for all the 2008 gold coins, the buffalo I think had high rates for the proofs but I can't remember exactly. 7/8 or someone posted the FOIA request they got back will all the numbers.
Also as we know back then in 2008 the mint did not have its current pricing policy of possible weekly changes, instead they kept the same price and if prices moved enough they had to pull the product and then wait a couple weeks to figure out the new price. That is why some sold less coins than was possible.
Box of 20
<< <i>I bought the 2008 platinum $50 proof for around $1100 in the beginning of 08 when platinum was approaching $2300 an ounce. Ouch! >>
Still north of $1000 on eBay so not a total disaster. Could even be a worthwhile investment going forward.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Spousy uncs are down in the 2006 range, also the 2008's now.
Wondercoin
Eric
I actually just assisted Lauren and Justin with writing an article for CU that was emailed to their roughly 85,000 collectors a couple weeks ago.
Check it out...
"'IT'S LADIES NIGHT AND TWO HOT NUMBERS ARE AT THE PARTY".
Also, back in July, I was invited to Asia to consult on a paid Newsletter that discusses precious metals plays (usually stocks) including interesting modern bullion coins.
So, I have stayed busy
Wondercoin
It's Ladies Night and Two Hot Numbers are at the Party
- October 23, 2012
Their names are Lucy and Lucretia and they are certainly two "hot numbers". And now a number of the country's top coin dealers, as well as numerous dedicated collectors of the gold spouse series, are seriously pursuing them. And, to be clear, we are not talking about two "ordinary" First ladies here. We are referring to what may be a pair of the lowest mintage regular issue coins that have ever been struck by the US Mint in over 95 years! These two coins are none other than the 2011-W Lucretia Garfield and Lucy Hayes Mint State $10 Spouse Gold coins. Let's look a little closer at these two coins.
First, the Lucretia Garfield Mint State Spouse coins were put on sale for the first time on December 01, 2011 and the Mint unexpectedly removed them from their available products page and listed them as being "No Longer Available" for sale on August 09, 2012 (prior to the Mint State Julia Grant spouse coins which went on sale ahead of both the Garfield and Hayes coins). While the last sales figure from the Mint purportedly showed that 2,498 of the Garfield coins were ordered, because collectors and dealers had the better part of a week to order these coins once the Mint pulled the Lucy Hayes pieces (see below), our research suggests that while a whopping nearly (500) units were actually ordered in that approximately one week time span only a fraction of those coin orders were actually consummated by the Mint. Consider that in the nearly eight months the coin was on sale at the Mint, the Mint had sold less than 2,000 pieces in all of that time combined. Yet, nearly (500) units showed as ordered and appear to have been included in the Mint's final sales report issued on this coin before showing it in the weekly sales reports as "no long available."
Merely placing these orders totaling (500) coins and actually getting those orders approved and fulfilled by the Mint are two entirely different things. Many collectors and dealers have reported their orders cancelled on these Garfield coins even though the orders were placed at a time the Mint was still offering the coins (on backorder) and these customers were provided with tracking numbers and confirmations that the orders were properly placed. For example, one collector confirmed with us that he had ordered (70) Garfield coins before the Mint shut off the sales, but all three of his separate Mint orders totaling (70) Mint State Garfield units were recently cancelled by the Mint. It is not likely that the Mint will report final audited mintage figures for this coin until around Thanksgiving, 2013, but these authors would not be surprised if the final mintage figure came in around 2,250 or so after the Mint takes into account the cancelled orders and any product returns. Again, the Mint shows the unaudited mintage figure currently at 2,498.
The Lucy Hayes Mint State Spouse coins first became available on September 01, 2011. The Mint also unexpectedly removed them from their available status on August 06, 2012 ahead of the termination of sales of the Lucy Grant Mint State coins, despite Lucy Grant having been a prior released spouse coin for the 2011 year. Following an eleven month offering period, the last sales figure provided by the Mint showed that 2,260 coins were ordered. The Mint had roughly just a day or so between "backordering" the coin and shutting off sales entirely and, as such, these authors do not expect that unaudited mintage figure to drop all that dramatically in the future.
The Mint sold close to 3,000 of the Eliza Johnson and Julia Grant Mint State 2011 Spouse coins before those coins were officially "sold out" by the Mint. These were the first and second spouse coins of the 2011 four-coin series. Logically, it would make sense that if the Mint determined demand had softened on this series and elected to only produce about 2,300 or so Mint State Hayes coins (the 3rd coin in the 2011 series), that it would, likewise, produce roughly 2,300 of the Mint State Garfield coins that followed it as the fourth coin in the series. As such, these authors believe it would probably be logical that the Mint produced a roughly equal amount of the Mint State Hayes and Garfield coins. Which coin ends up the lower mintage in the end may likely depend upon which one saw the most returns from the buying public over the course of the 8-11 months each coin was on sale.
Obviously, if these authors' hypothesis is correct and each of these coins ends up at a final official mintage of roughly 2,250 about a year from now, it would result in both of these coins being the two lowest mintage regular issue struck coins by the U.S. Mint from 1915 to date. In the "top three" would also be the 2008-W $50 Burnished Platinum Eagle, which has an official mintage of 2,253 making it (currently) the lowest mintage coin since 1915. There again, we recall that the official mintage of 2,253 was a significant drop from the previously unaudited order figure the Mint released about a year before finalizing the figures on that Platinum coin.
A word of caution. This is not the first time a U.S. Spouse Gold coin has potentially been crowned the "Queen of the series." Back in 2009, the Julia Tyler Mint State Gold Spouse coin ended up with an official mintage of 3,143 (finalized in late-2010 by the Mint). For nearly two years, that coin was the lowest mintage Gold Spouse coin and, to this day, the coin sells for roughly a $400 - $500 premium to many other spouse coins with higher mintages. That Julia Tyler mintage has now been "blown away" by both the Lucy Hayes and Lucretia Garfield Mint State coins (yet, interestingly, these authors have seen little erosion of the premium being paid for Julia Tyler coins to this point). Likewise, it is certainly not out of the question that a 2012 or 2013 gold spouse mintage comes in even lower than Hayes or Garfield. There are a number of coins in the series coming up in 2012 and 2013 that are by no means "household names" (did we even learn about Alice Paul in our History classes in Jr. High School as I surely needed a refresher on why she is appearing as Chester Arthur's rendition of Liberty this year). And speaking of the four coin "Liberty subset" in both Mint State and Proof – while these (8) total coins are certainly not the lowest mintage pieces in the entire spouse series, they are surely the most popular to date in our view.
Indeed, many spouse coins now have a combination of scarcity and demand, especially where particular examples also carry a very low mintage, such as the Lucy Hayes and Lucretia Garfield coins. Additionally, the eight coins in the Liberty (spouse) subset are now extremely popular among collectors and also have relatively low mintages overall. It appears to these authors that the Spouse series is beginning to take on a sort of contrarian following when one considers that these low mintages were the result of very few collectors and dealers buying the coins from the Mint in the first place over the past four years.
While we wait for the Mint's final audited report on the Hayes and Garfield Mint State coins, these two "hot numbers" may get collectors even more heated up for the spouse series.
Mitch, Lauren & Justin Spivack, Wondercoins.com
:-)
There has been a lot going on - 2012 W $50 AGE UNC sell out, SSB $5 Unc. on B/O - and some great threads about both.
Within these threads there is much speculation about whether the mintages will just continue to go lower, whether the SSB Unc is done and, after so many years, the Jackie Unc is unseated, etc.
We all read the great article the Mitch helped to write. How low will the spouses go??
I, and I'm sure many others, would love to hear your thoughts on the above.
Thanks! R-
John
John Maben
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A "collector" ordering SEVENTY of one issue? Methinks flipper!!
Quite possible the reason for no drop in Tyler prices is that there are few sales to document actual prices. Speaking of which, what comprises an actual secondary market sale that can be documented? I still wonder the relevance of mintages of these "coins" as few of us (even enthusiastic spastic collectors of modern mint schlock like me) get excited about such, and still are not even if mintages come in at 2,000.
And not being a naysayer, just that I think the series is felt by many to be a new "low water mark" for the US Mint.
One more thing: before these bits get touted and flounced up some more, please be aware that the lowest mintage US issues are the Boone Bicentennial coins, where there are several in the 2000-2100 mintage range in a MUCH more widely collected series (also IMO).
Well, just Love coins, period.
P.S. Can anyone post sales of the Alice Paul coin to date? Thanks!
Regardless of which is the real cause, these low mintages reflect a much smaller market. Smaller markets aren't necessarily bad, and when you consider that the price of gold is the support level, there are worse things to speculate in.
I knew it would happen.
Gold eagles............bullion-proof-burnished?
Commemorative gold...........which politically correct person or event do we celebrate today?
Buffalo gold................?
Platinum eagle slugs?
Previously unknown wife of forgotten president??
After you decide on above do you then belly up big bucks for a FS american flag??
Which do you chase or is best move just not to play??
I sense more and more are quiting the game.
P.S.................Isn't tomorrow new spouse day??
<< <i>Yes, Frances the 1st term is scheduled to be released tomorrow. Anyone with a tingle up their leg about this?
The original Frances 1st term design looks nice. I thought, finally, a nice looking first spouse coin besides Julia Tyler. But when I look at the image of the coin from the Mint website, it looks much worse.
Maybe, they have to be consistent
What would drive an increased demand??
If we can't answer that in an affirmative fashion then mintages will likely remain very low.
<< <i>Here is a question...............Why would we have any reason to expect demand to go up for FS coins in next year or so??
What would drive an increased demand??
If we can't answer that in an affirmative fashion then mintages will likely remain very low. >>
More disposable income but that ain't-a-gonna happen in my opinion. We may be floundering in the 2k to 3k range for quite a while with some slight bumps for some of the more popular ones. Probably half of those will be flippers playing the grading game for those who want one graded but do not want to submit.
1884.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Yes, Frances the 1st term is scheduled to be released tomorrow. Anyone with a tingle up their leg about this?
Not I.
My hat is off to those who end up with the key spouse. It's a very expensive chase. I've given up on chasing that one.
I believe the article certainly gave a "fair warning" regarding chasing any spouse coin on the hopes and dreams it will be the lowest mintage coin in the series. The U.S. Mint has already thrown us enough "curveballs" in the first five years to potentially be on guard for a few more in the next two or three years.
But, it is certainly not just spouse coins that fall into that potential trap. It can also be burnished gold or platinum coins or even the $5 Gold Commem series that is now about 26 years old. If anyone is convinced the SSB will be the lowest mintage (or even that Jackie will remain the "King") of the $5 gold commem series, then stay tuned for the "generals" in 2013. This is a real great time to be offering generals on gold coins don't you think! Raufus suggested on another thread the witty idea of the companion series of the generals' mistresses. I suspect they could even outsell Alice Paul if push came to shove. LOL.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Regarding the article... thanks guys.
I believe the article certainly gave a "fair warning" regarding chasing any spouse coin on the hopes and dreams it will be the lowest mintage coin in the series. The U.S. Mint has already thrown us enough "curveballs" in the first five years to potentially be on guard for a few more in the next two or three years.
But, it is certainly not just spouse coins that fall into that potential trap. It can also be burnished gold or platinum coins or even the $5 Gold Commem series that is now about 26 years old. If anyone is convinced the SSB will be the lowest mintage (or even that Jackie will remain the "King") of the $5 gold commem series, then stay tuned for the "generals" in 2013. This is a real great time to be offering generals on gold coins don't you think! Raufus suggested on another thread the witty idea of the companion series of the generals' mistresses. I suspect they could even outsell Alice Paul if push came to shove. LOL.
Wondercoin >>
"Chasing" Spouses? That's what got the General in trouble.
OMG, hadn't even heard of the Generals. Sounds like something from a South Park episode. Who on earth came up with this??? Is it to be followed by the heads of the General Services Administration? How about the Managing Directors for the IRS? I actually like the recent coins honoring servicemen, but...this?
Sure, I think the reverse could show him in the infamous hot tub scene. How far we have come.
Hot tub scene? Was that a menage a quarte with the two generals and the two [umm - Hostesses??] lovelies?
Well, just Love coins, period.
Shazam.
(And break to Geritol ad)
I suspect, The same folks who came up with Alice Paul to represent "Liberty" to Chester Arthur as opposed to say the Morgan Dollar design or something like that which could have actually sold a boatload of coins.
Wondercoin
The same coin in non-FS went for $2753. It never ceases to amaze me just how much folks will pay for the pretty Flag label. Yes, I know, the FS was submitted only once, yada, yada, yada, but on over $7K premium on the plat? Holy cow!
Edited: I just checked. The 2008 W $50 APE PR70DCAM FS has the lowest 70FS pop (26) of any of the 2008 plat proofs (or any of the MS for that matter) and it's the most rare of all plats. I wonder what that would bring in FS. (I really wonder as I lucked out and was able to get one at a good price in 08).
As has been already reported 2012 1/2 oz Proof Gold Eagle has been sold out by the Mint
I would speculate 1/4 oz 2012 Proof AGE will sell out next - historically their mintages have been close
Based on the current sales numbers for 2012 Proof Eagles this year may look like the lowest mintage for all Proof AGEs across the board
The unknown here is how many 4-coin sets were made but there looks like a somewhat possible for 1/2 and 1/4 oz proofs to be under 10K
2012 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD PROOF COINS
One ounce 9,218 440
One-half ounce 3,564 495
One-quarter ounce 2,947 157
One-tenth ounce 8,807 396
Four-coin set 4,190 112
For more details compare the following numbers:
Mintages up to 2010
Sales for 2011 and 2012
What do you think?