<< <i>So does an ugly lower mintage spouse become the beneficiary of a higher price? Lucy and Lucretia are not very attractive but lower mintage than Julia. Could it be possible for an uglier coin to be more expensive? Say it ain't so!!!! >>
Beauty is only skin deep but 0.9999 fine goes all the way through.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>So does an ugly lower mintage spouse become the beneficiary of a higher price? Lucy and Lucretia are not very attractive but lower mintage than Julia. Could it be possible for an uglier coin to be more expensive? Say it ain't so!!!! >>
If you disregard the period hairstyles, Lucy and Lucretia are not all that ugly.
<< <i>Is it worth getting a Lucretia also at this point. Get her or Lucy? >>
If affordable, I would get both. I think they will both be winners, but it is unknown which one will be the lower mintage. >>
I'm betting on Lucretia. Sold my one Hayes today. I've been wrong before but maybe this time I'll nail it >>
Oops, Oh well, it happens. >>
Yup it does >>
Silverstreak, it still has a mintage of under 2,500. Less than half of Jackie Robinison Unc and more than twice the gold content. Don't kick yourself yet.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
<< <i>Is it worth getting a Lucretia also at this point. Get her or Lucy? >>
If affordable, I would get both. I think they will both be winners, but it is unknown which one will be the lower mintage. >>
I'm betting on Lucretia. Sold my one Hayes today. I've been wrong before but maybe this time I'll nail it >>
Oops, Oh well, it happens. >>
Yup it does >>
Silverstreak, it still has a mintage of under 2,500. Less than half of Jackie Robinison Unc and more than twice the gold content. Don't kick yourself yet. >>
With all due respect Kiyote the Robinson coin has grown into a popular rare coin over the years, (due to the baseball angle among other things) I suspect it will take many more years for the Lucretia coin to follow suit. But that's the fun of collecting moderns. You just never know.
Beer is Proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy -Benjamin Franklin-
I'm betting that the Lucy and Lucretia mintages are approximately equal at 2200 and change. Lucretia was in "backorder" much longer than Lucy, and during that time any orders coming in would probably be added to the order total that we saw on Tuesday.
My guess is that the Mint's order software automatically goes to "backorder" when inventory on hand runs out. There is then a lag time while additional inventory is requested. Once it is confirmed that there is no additional inventory, the "backorder" status is changed to "sold out", and most customers who ordered during the "backorder" period have their orders canceled. However, these canceled orders remain on the sales report, and are not backed out until months later when a significantly lower and more accurate "final mintage" is reported.
<< <i>So does an ugly lower mintage spouse become the beneficiary of a higher price? Lucy and Lucretia are not very attractive but lower mintage than Julia. Could it be possible for an uglier coin to be more expensive? Say it ain't so!!!! >>
Beauty is only skin deep but 0.9999 fine goes all the way through. >>
This is a really funny line.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
Seems to me all of these are going to be in the 2000 to 3000 range. At that point what's the key since their all likely to be within a few hundred of each other. I'd pay a little more since they are 24k but I don't see any high dollar coins as this proceeds. JMO
We know that the Mint is striking these coins in small volumes now due to almost zero demand. If they strike to 2500 planchets and a higher than normal scrap rate shows up (may be likely given they have stated they are having starburst problems) then we could see sub 2000 mintages show up this year. From the scrap rate trend data I have seen the uncs tend to have wider scrap rate swings than the proofs (go figure). I think I am going to try to come up with some money for this years spouses.
OK, I am having brain fade and was unable to answer the following question: if any of the commem (not first Spouse) coins, copper-nickel, silver or gold in proof or uncirculated do not reach their maximum mintage total when is the cutoff for orders?
I answered that I thought (?) that they could, but are not forced, to offer them for up to a calendar year. Is this the right answer? In other words they can pull them when they want to up to that time??
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
I don't see much risk in buying a <2500 mintage coin from the Mint at a 20% premium to bullion.
Assuming mintages are similar, my pick for the most promising 2012 "First Spouse" coin is non-spouse Alice Paul. The coin's appearance resembles that of a stand-alone commem, and it honors personal achievement rather than accident of marriage.
Alice Paul. The coin's appearance resembles that of a stand-alone commem, and it honors personal achievement rather than accident of marriage. >>
Accident of marriage?
I wonder how many Hallmark cards celebrate the accident of marriage?
I guess I am beating a dead horse trying to defend the honor of the First Ladies. Just because the world does not stand up and recognize some great achievement does not mean that great things have not been done. It is just a coin; not a ticket to heaven.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Not to say that the marriages were accidental, but it was pretty much random chance that these particular women married men that later became President, and decades later were honored on coins.
I was using the word in the same sense as the term "accident of birth" to describe a rich heir.
<< <i>Not to say that the marriages were accidental, but it was pretty much random chance that these particular women married men that later became President, and decades later were honored on coins.
I was using the word in the same sense as the term "accident of birth" to describe a rich heir. >>
England sure has some "accidents of birth" that get honored on coins. No one seems to mind that.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I guess I am beating a dead horse trying to defend the honor of the First Ladies. Just because the world does not stand up and recognize some great achievement does not mean that great things have not been done. It is just a coin; not a ticket to heaven.
I tend to agree. We really ought to promote more study about our history, including that of the First Ladies.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I guess I am beating a dead horse trying to defend the honor of the First Ladies. Just because the world does not stand up and recognize some great achievement does not mean that great things have not been done. It is just a coin; not a ticket to heaven.
I tend to agree. We really ought to promote more study about our history, including that of the First Ladies. >>
Few seem to give them credit for the things I am sure they did in the background. First, they were there to support their husbands giving them strength to do the things they did. Many, I am sure. offered prayers that may have been more powerful than thousands of cannon in the field. They sacrificed, I am sure by dealing with times when their husbands were called away for some duty. To me, saying the wives did nothing is like giving Generals all the credit for a battle victory and ignoring the grunts in the field.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>I guess I am beating a dead horse trying to defend the honor of the First Ladies. Just because the world does not stand up and recognize some great achievement does not mean that great things have not been done. It is just a coin; not a ticket to heaven.
I tend to agree. We really ought to promote more study about our history, including that of the First Ladies. >>
Some even turned a blind eye to their husband’s indiscretions.
<< <i>OK, I am having brain fade and was unable to answer the following question: if any of the commem (not first Spouse) coins, copper-nickel, silver or gold in proof or uncirculated do not reach their maximum mintage total when is the cutoff for orders?
I answered that I thought (?) that they could, but are not forced, to offer them for up to a calendar year. Is this the right answer? In other words they can pull them when they want to up to that time?? >>
Current behavior is to strike X number of planchets in numbers that reflect recent sales behavior for the series and sell the net number that makes it through QC until they are gone. If it takes 1.5 years for them to be gone so be it. If the new coin comes out for the following year and the previous year is still for sale so be it.
<< <i>I guess I am beating a dead horse trying to defend the honor of the First Ladies. Just because the world does not stand up and recognize some great achievement does not mean that great things have not been done. It is just a coin; not a ticket to heaven.
I tend to agree. We really ought to promote more study about our history, including that of the First Ladies. >>
Some even turned a blind eye to their husband’s indiscretions. >>
We may never know how many rolling pins, frying pans, and ash trays have also been sacrificed in the line of duty.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< To me, saying the wives did nothing is like giving Generals all the credit for a battle victory and ignoring the grunts in the field. >>
I'm not saying the wives "did nothing," far from it. But for the most part their accomplishments, by themselves, would not merit a coin - these women were selected for this honor only because they happened to be married to a President while he was in office. There were exceptions, such as Dolley Madison, who had already been recognized with her own coin prior to the First Spouse series.
There were many other wives, including wives of the above-mentioned generals and "grunts in the field," who accomplished as much or more than most of the First Ladies, but have not been honored on coins because the men they married did not happen to go on to become President.
I am not the student of history I should be, but have learned enough to know that several spouses made huge contributions in their own rights including: Abigail Adams Mary Todd Lincoln (whom, early, on provided a shrewd political sounding board for Abe) Eleanor Roosevelt--probably unparalleled in her accomplishments as a First Lady Lady Bird Johnson, who almost single-handedly got her husband re-elected for President and left a lasting legacy of conservation in this country Betty Ford, who probably had much more wisdom than her husband and influenced many of his decisions Hillary Clinton
Doesn't mean I'm a fan of the series, but many of these women were/are giants in their own right.
We will probably never know how quite a few of them influenced in a positive way the history of this country. Some are more private than others. History does not always record every detail. That is why I do not have a problem with the honors bestowed on them with the coins. Maybe some got a "free ride" to glory but I think overall we have not offended glory in any great way.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
As mintage numbers for gold commemoratives and spouse coins have declined the ratio of proof to uncirculated coins seems to be getting closer to a 1:1 ratio.
I sense many are going for the uncirculated coins in hope of catching the next Jackie Robinson.
Perhaps the surprise for 2012 or 2013 may be a record low proof rather than uncirculated coin.
appears that low mintages with modern comms seems to take a while before seeing substantial price gains. Last year's US Army and Medal of Honor are good case studies.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>We know that the Mint is striking these coins in small volumes now due to almost zero demand. If they strike to 2500 planchets and a higher than normal scrap rate shows up (may be likely given they have stated they are having starburst problems) then we could see sub 2000 mintages show up this year. From the scrap rate trend data I have seen the uncs tend to have wider scrap rate swings than the proofs (go figure). I think I am going to try to come up with some money for this years spouses. >>
Hi Eric-
With eight coins to go in the next 3.5 months even one of each is a lot of $.
Are you planing to get all eight, if not, which ones? Are you thinking of the proofs or uncs?
Also, why 2012? 2013 could be even lower. Chasing the lowest mintages in this series is quite expensive and hard to predict.
It's amazing to me that someone paid $3999 for a Hayes PCGS MS70FS on Aug. 29th given how many issues could come in lower even this year, not to mention in the next few years. That's an expensive gamble with poor odds IMHO.
I plan to buy the MS coins just because from the data I have the Unc coins tend to have a wider variance in scrap rates. The Mint has already told us which coins are having problems. The MS coins also have very low mintages to start with. What if they strike 2500 or so coins and have a 50 % scrap rate like they did multiple times in 2008 on burnished issues?
I am not going hog wild on them. I hope to buy one of every mint state issue and more than one of the problem coins.
Eric
PS: There looks like there is no end to the new bottoms with this series but let me put it to you this way. If you are going to buy gold this year it might as well be in the form of these coins because the Mint has never struck and sold them all at once and they have never stated that they are having quality problems on this series before. Its as likely to be the bottom as any year thus far.
What puzzles me is why are they having so much difficulty striking a soft gold coin with no apparent design challenges. What is so unique about these coins that there is a problem now? Makes me suspicious that there is another story not yet reported.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>What puzzles me is why are they having so much difficulty striking a soft gold coin with no apparent design challenges. What is so unique about these coins that there is a problem now? Makes me suspicious that there is another story not yet reported. >>
Not just that. They've been making these things for years, why are they having prioblems all of a sudden? I'd like to know the rest of the story.
<< <i>I plan to buy the MS coins just because from the data I have the Unc coins tend to have a wider variance in scrap rates. The Mint has already told us which coins are having problems. The MS coins also have very low mintages to start with. What if they strike 2500 or so coins and have a 50 % scrap rate like they did multiple times in 2008 on burnished issues?
I am not goin hog wild on them. I hope to buy one of every mint state isssue and more than one of the problem coins.
Eric
PS: There looks like there is no end to the new bottoms with this series but let me put it to you this way. If you are going to buy gold this year it might as well be in the form of these coins because the mint has never struck and sold them all at once and they have never stated that they are having quality problems on this series before. Its as likley to be the bottom as any year thus far. >>
Comments
<< <i>So does an ugly lower mintage spouse become the beneficiary of a higher price? Lucy and Lucretia are not very attractive but lower mintage than Julia. Could it be possible for an uglier coin to be more expensive? Say it ain't so!!!!
Beauty is only skin deep but 0.9999 fine goes all the way through.
<< <i>So does an ugly lower mintage spouse become the beneficiary of a higher price? Lucy and Lucretia are not very attractive but lower mintage than Julia. Could it be possible for an uglier coin to be more expensive? Say it ain't so!!!!
If you disregard the period hairstyles, Lucy and Lucretia are not all that ugly.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Is it worth getting a Lucretia also at this point.
Get her or Lucy? >>
If affordable, I would get both. I think they will both be winners, but it is unknown which one will be the lower mintage. >>
I'm betting on Lucretia. Sold my one Hayes today. I've been wrong before but maybe this time I'll nail it
Oops, Oh well, it happens. >>
Yup it does
Silverstreak, it still has a mintage of under 2,500. Less than half of Jackie Robinison Unc and more than twice the gold content. Don't kick yourself yet.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Is it worth getting a Lucretia also at this point.
Get her or Lucy? >>
If affordable, I would get both. I think they will both be winners, but it is unknown which one will be the lower mintage. >>
I'm betting on Lucretia. Sold my one Hayes today. I've been wrong before but maybe this time I'll nail it
Oops, Oh well, it happens. >>
Yup it does
Silverstreak, it still has a mintage of under 2,500. Less than half of Jackie Robinison Unc and more than twice the gold content. Don't kick yourself yet. >>
With all due respect Kiyote the Robinson coin has grown into a popular rare coin over the years, (due to the baseball angle among other things) I suspect it will take many more years for the Lucretia coin to follow suit. But that's the fun of collecting moderns. You just never know.
My guess is that the Mint's order software automatically goes to "backorder" when inventory on hand runs out. There is then a lag time while additional inventory is requested. Once it is confirmed that there is no additional inventory, the "backorder" status is changed to "sold out", and most customers who ordered during the "backorder" period have their orders canceled. However, these canceled orders remain on the sales report, and are not backed out until months later when a significantly lower and more accurate "final mintage" is reported.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>So does an ugly lower mintage spouse become the beneficiary of a higher price? Lucy and Lucretia are not very attractive but lower mintage than Julia. Could it be possible for an uglier coin to be more expensive? Say it ain't so!!!!
Beauty is only skin deep but 0.9999 fine goes all the way through.
This is a really funny line.....
Update
.
I answered that I thought (?) that they could, but are not forced, to offer them for up to a calendar year. Is this the right answer? In other words they can pull them when they want to up to that time??
Well, just Love coins, period.
Assuming mintages are similar, my pick for the most promising 2012 "First Spouse" coin is non-spouse Alice Paul. The coin's appearance resembles that of a stand-alone commem, and it honors personal achievement rather than accident of marriage.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Accident of marriage?
I wonder how many Hallmark cards celebrate the accident of marriage?
I guess I am beating a dead horse trying to defend the honor of the First Ladies. Just because the world does not stand up and recognize some great achievement does not mean that great things have not been done. It is just a coin; not a ticket to heaven.
I knew it would happen.
I was using the word in the same sense as the term "accident of birth" to describe a rich heir.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Not to say that the marriages were accidental, but it was pretty much random chance that these particular women married men that later became President, and decades later were honored on coins.
I was using the word in the same sense as the term "accident of birth" to describe a rich heir. >>
England sure has some "accidents of birth" that get honored on coins. No one seems to mind that.
I tend to agree. We really ought to promote more study about our history, including that of the First Ladies.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I guess I am beating a dead horse trying to defend the honor of the First Ladies. Just because the world does not stand up and recognize some great achievement does not mean that great things have not been done. It is just a coin; not a ticket to heaven.
I tend to agree. We really ought to promote more study about our history, including that of the First Ladies. >>
Few seem to give them credit for the things I am sure they did in the background. First, they were there to support their husbands giving them strength to do the things they did. Many, I am sure. offered prayers that may have been more powerful than thousands of cannon in the field. They sacrificed, I am sure by dealing with times when their husbands were called away for some duty. To me, saying the wives did nothing is like giving Generals all the credit for a battle victory and ignoring the grunts in the field.
<< <i>I guess I am beating a dead horse trying to defend the honor of the First Ladies. Just because the world does not stand up and recognize some great achievement does not mean that great things have not been done. It is just a coin; not a ticket to heaven.
I tend to agree. We really ought to promote more study about our history, including that of the First Ladies. >>
Some even turned a blind eye to their husband’s indiscretions.
<< <i>OK, I am having brain fade and was unable to answer the following question: if any of the commem (not first Spouse) coins, copper-nickel, silver or gold in proof or uncirculated do not reach their maximum mintage total when is the cutoff for orders?
I answered that I thought (?) that they could, but are not forced, to offer them for up to a calendar year. Is this the right answer? In other words they can pull them when they want to up to that time?? >>
Current behavior is to strike X number of planchets in numbers that reflect recent sales behavior for the series and sell the net number that makes it through QC until they are gone. If it takes 1.5 years for them to be gone so be it. If the new coin comes out for the following year and the previous year is still for sale so be it.
<< <i>
<< <i>I guess I am beating a dead horse trying to defend the honor of the First Ladies. Just because the world does not stand up and recognize some great achievement does not mean that great things have not been done. It is just a coin; not a ticket to heaven.
I tend to agree. We really ought to promote more study about our history, including that of the First Ladies. >>
Some even turned a blind eye to their husband’s indiscretions. >>
We may never know how many rolling pins, frying pans, and ash trays have also been sacrificed in the line of duty.
I'm not saying the wives "did nothing," far from it. But for the most part their accomplishments, by themselves, would not merit a coin - these women were selected for this honor only because they happened to be married to a President while he was in office. There were exceptions, such as Dolley Madison, who had already been recognized with her own coin prior to the First Spouse series.
There were many other wives, including wives of the above-mentioned generals and "grunts in the field," who accomplished as much or more than most of the First Ladies, but have not been honored on coins because the men they married did not happen to go on to become President.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>We may never know how many rolling pins, frying pans, and ash trays have also been sacrificed in the line of duty. >>
How very true. Hum, I wonder if any of the First Ladies had any "indiscretions."
Abigail Adams
Mary Todd Lincoln (whom, early, on provided a shrewd political sounding board for Abe)
Eleanor Roosevelt--probably unparalleled in her accomplishments as a First Lady
Lady Bird Johnson, who almost single-handedly got her husband re-elected for President and left a lasting legacy of conservation in this country
Betty Ford, who probably had much more wisdom than her husband and influenced many of his decisions
Hillary Clinton
Doesn't mean I'm a fan of the series, but many of these women were/are giants in their own right.
As mintage numbers for gold commemoratives and spouse coins have declined the ratio of proof to uncirculated coins seems to be getting closer to a 1:1 ratio.
I sense many are going for the uncirculated coins in hope of catching the next Jackie Robinson.
Perhaps the surprise for 2012 or 2013 may be a record low proof rather than uncirculated coin.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>We know that the Mint is striking these coins in small volumes now due to almost zero demand. If they strike to 2500 planchets and a higher than normal scrap rate shows up (may be likely given they have stated they are having starburst problems) then we could see sub 2000 mintages show up this year. From the scrap rate trend data I have seen the uncs tend to have wider scrap rate swings than the proofs (go figure). I think I am going to try to come up with some money for this years spouses. >>
Hi Eric-
With eight coins to go in the next 3.5 months even one of each is a lot of $.
Are you planing to get all eight, if not, which ones? Are you thinking of the proofs or uncs?
Also, why 2012? 2013 could be even lower. Chasing the lowest mintages in this series is quite expensive and hard to predict.
As always, thanks for your thoughts!
<< <i> Are you planing to get all eight, if not, which ones? Are you thinking of the proofs or uncs?
Also, why 2012? 2013 could be even lower. Chasing the lowest mintages in this series is quite expensive and hard to predict. >>
I'm not Eric, but I'm leaning towards the ms as they have had the lower mintage and higher prices over time based upon my own research.
I am not going hog wild on them. I hope to buy one of every mint state issue and more than one of the problem coins.
Eric
PS: There looks like there is no end to the new bottoms with this series but let me put it to you this way. If you are going to buy gold this year it might as well be in the form of these coins because the Mint has never struck and sold them all at once and they have never stated that they are having quality problems on this series before. Its as likely to be the bottom as any year thus far.
Box of 20
<< <i>What puzzles me is why are they having so much difficulty striking a soft gold coin with no apparent design challenges. What is so unique about these coins that there is a problem now? Makes me suspicious that there is another story not yet reported. >>
Not just that. They've been making these things for years, why are they having prioblems all of a sudden? I'd like to know the rest of the story.
<< <i>I plan to buy the MS coins just because from the data I have the Unc coins tend to have a wider variance in scrap rates. The Mint has already told us which coins are having problems. The MS coins also have very low mintages to start with. What if they strike 2500 or so coins and have a 50 % scrap rate like they did multiple times in 2008 on burnished issues?
I am not goin hog wild on them. I hope to buy one of every mint state isssue and more than one of the problem coins.
Eric
PS: There looks like there is no end to the new bottoms with this series but let me put it to you this way. If you are going to buy gold this year it might as well be in the form of these coins because the mint has never struck and sold them all at once and they have never stated that they are having quality problems on this series before. Its as likley to be the bottom as any year thus far. >>
Hi Eric-
Thanks very much for your post!!
I will follow suit.
It will be an interesting end of the year.
Great to see some life in this thread again.
Happy New Year to the Jewish forum members :-)
<< <i>Lucretia Garfield MS raw las week went for $1325. Interest waning?" >>
Maybe until the Mint cancels all the backordered sets
<< <i>There's a lot of toned .9999 First Spouses out there. Maybe that has something to do with it? >>
Maybe the planchets are flawed. Can't wait to see how the quality is on these once they release them. Maybe tough to get a 70.
Just a little humor, I know they do not get gold from Ft Knox.
<< <i>
<< <i>There's a lot of toned .9999 First Spouses out there. Maybe that has something to do with it? >>
Maybe the planchets are flawed. Can't wait to see how the quality is on these once they release them. Maybe tough to get a 70. >>
My Lucy Hayes PCGS MS69 has a really light silvery patch on her face. It looks odd, though I'm more used to .9167 gold with a little darker color.
<< <i>Maybe the problem is that they finally ran out of gold in fort Knox and now they must buy i from the Chinese?
Just a little humor, I know they do not get gold from Ft Knox. >>
They only need about 25 bricks to run them all. I hope they can find that.
<< <i>Was just on the mint site and there were no 2011 first spouse coins listed for sale. >>
2 proofs for sale still.
<< <i>I blame Congress! >>
.....................................................................
I blame Bush!!
<< <i>
<< <i>I blame Congress! >>
.....................................................................
I blame Bush!! >>
The President posts here? How impressive. Good luck on the M.E. sir.
There are only 29 PR70FS graded (I wish I had one but I got lazy and did not buy any
What is actually more interesting those 29 make approx less than 10% of the total graded (29 out of 314) population
Is the 2012 Proof Plat quality really that bad ?
<< <i>Some interesting observation for those following Plats
There are only 29 PR70FS graded (I wish I had one but I got lazy and did not buy any
What is actually more interesting those 29 make approx less than 10% of the total graded (29 out of 314) population
Is the 2012 Proof Plat quality really that bad ? >>
I have a theory that the lower the submission rate the harder the grading standards. Maybe it is that they just have more time to find problems.