I noticed 2011-W Burnished 1 oz Silver American Eagle MS-70 PCGS (FS) APMEX $68 until 10:00 AM Friday. I read Eric's book and really like the post here. Thanks to all!
On the topic of silver eagles I am working on a commentary on the modern ASEs for Numismatic news as part of a series of articles. It has the feel of our first book. I hope you guys like it.
The mint updated there product schedule through 8/27 but no first spouse gold coins yet? maybe they will bring then out as a four coin set late in the year
*Still selling All but Grant Proof! **None on sale yet 6 months into the year! >>
Seems odd to me. Eliza (first of the 2011 coins) went on sale May 5th last year. That seems late and now they are even further behind and not even on the schedule through August 27th. I smell another Mint brouhaha in the making. It is always interesting to watch the bureaucratic version of the Keystone Cops. And not even a hint of the 1 oz burnished Gold Eagle. What's up with that? Are they returning to the days of Mint and Proof sets only?
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>The mint updated there product schedule through 8/27 but no first spouse gold coins yet? maybe they will bring then out as a four coin set late in the year >>
Could you imagine the cost of 4 together? Near $3800. Talk about low sales figures!
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I'm bummed. I noticed that the 2012 Unc AGE is on The Mint schedule for June 28. I was hoping that they would not do one.
I wonder whether it will unseat the 2011 W. The latter is bringing over $4K in PCGS MS70FS now. I have one or two left. I'll have to watch the 2012 W very closely.
Thoughts? Predictions?
On another note, I just wasted $58 on the Star Spangled Banner Silver Dollar silver dollar set. I just like the presentation. I'm such a sucker for Mint stuff sometimes :-(
<< <i>I'm bummed. I noticed that the 2012 Unc AGE is on The Mint schedule for June 28. I was hoping that they would not do one.
I wonder whether it will unseat the 2011 W. The latter is bringing over $4K in PCGS MS70FS now. I have one or two left. I'll have to watch the 2012 W very closely.
Thoughts? Predictions?
Well, I was beginning to think they would not this year. I think there is a good chance the 11's will hold if Romney gets elected.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Yes that Eliza unc coin didn't go out without a fight. It went backorder five times, people must have canceled orders and kept returning coins, but sales say it is under 3000, the first one perhaps.
<< <i>Yes that Eliza unc coin didn't go out without a fight. It went backorder five times, people must have canceled orders and kept returning coins, but sales say it is under 3000, the first one perhaps. >>
It likely won't be the last. All the other 2011's have lower sales at the moment, and probably were minted in similar numbers. Since they carry last year's date, no more can be struck.
I think the 2011 proofs will prove to be a better value, if final mintages come in at 4000 each or less.
The best thing that happened for us was the TV shows getting out of the spouse coins, and also some online dealers cutting back. The strange thing right now is with sales still dropping you would think the past issue prices would not be selling for much over spot but many of them do.
I agree on the proof coins with mintages under 4000, that is only 33% above a 3000 mintage unc, although I still like the unc going under 3000.
We are now in a mintage limbo contest. How low can they go? Will they continue lower or will something trigger more demand and higher mintages? Wish I knew the answer.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I was very happy when many of us perchased platinum coins from the mint in 2008 and the final sales figures turned out to be record low numbers. Now four years later they are apparently selling for only a few percent over the cost of platinum for 69 and 70 gradded coins, indicating a very low if any demand for the platinum series. This makes the list of coins I bought from the mint (that that ever held any value above melt) a very, very small list.
<< <i>I was very happy when many of us perchased platinum coins from the mint in 2008 and the final sales figures turned out to be record low numbers. Now four years later they are apparently selling for only a few percent over the cost of platinum for 69 and 70 gradded coins, indicating a very low if any demand for the platinum series. This makes the list of coins I bought from the mint (that that ever held any value above melt) a very, very small list. >>
You are talking about the "W" burnished coins? You are incorrect in saying they are only selling for a few percent over melt, especially on the 70's. I am a BUYER at MUCH more than that even for 69's!
I track prices of the Burnished Plats - they sell infrequently enough that they are hard to peg without some analysis. John's comments caused me to take another look at how their performance.
When I compare the cost of the Burnished Plats to the Burnished AGEs, I was stunned to realize that I had paid almost twice as much for the Burnished Plats from the Mint as I paid for the Burnished AGEs!
That being the case, the Burnished Gold Eagles have done **far better** in terms of the percentages of the gains, especially now considering that gold spot is higher than platinum spot. On the other hand, I'm pleased with how many of the Burnished Plats have done.
As a store of value they've all got perfect records and as a speculation, the 06Ws and 08Ws have appreciated. Not a flipper's paradise, but as a solid investment they've done just fine.
Based on what I'm seeing, their trends are up more recently. Sometimes, the good stuff doesn't happen overnight.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I put the unc and Proof $100 coins on the BST and have had zero interest. When I did solicit a dealers offer for the pair they said they would pay 3500 for the pair. Is that what you consider a solid investment?
<< <i>I put the unc and Proof $100 coins on the BST and have had zero interest. When I did solicit a dealers offer for the pair they said they would pay 3500 for the pair. Is that what you consider a solid investment? >>
I'm no expert, but my impression is that the "big slugs" of any of the burnished eagle issues do not do as well as the smaller denominations. I do think that there is VERY limited interest in the one-ounce platinum coins especially. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
Grits is correct. Most of the people that I know that collect platinum eagles work the fractionals because the set is SO much cheaper and for that matter lower mintage than the big coins. I dont see many 2008W platinum halves floating around at anything close to melt.
2008w Platinum is the like the "2008w" one once gold issues. They have very low mintages relative to the rest of the $50 gold but it does not matter much at this point. Very few people want to jump on a 30 coin one once gold set. Very few people want to jump on a 17 coin one once platinum set either.
In our first text we detailed the maturity behavior of the various denominations over time. David almost always slays Goliath on a percentage basis. Rare fractionals in series with some size pull well as do key and semi key silver issues.
A dealer friend of mine that sells a million dollars worth of silver eagles a year on ebay named Steve S. called me last week and he noted that the bulk of the rare fractional plats have found homes with people who have strong hands. He noted that there are a FEW floating around but the market is getting tight and those that hold them have a "mine are not for sale" attitude. Maybe guys like me are the only ones that will ever like the changing reverse collector series structure but if the stable obverse/changing reverse ever becomes mainsteam and rarity is desired then watch out. My frational plats are not for sale unless I get in financial trouble at some point. They can stay in the extended family for the next couple generations.
Based on my ebay compilations, the 1 oz 2008-W Burnished & Proof pair of Plats in OGP ought to be sellable at around $4,000 (total) on ebay, less ebay fees of course.
2008 was an unusual year for the Proofs, in that they were being sold by the Mint for over $2,000/oz during the first part of the year until platinum crashed. Then they were selling for what, maybe $1,200/oz for the duration. So, your potential investment return is dictated mainly by when you bought them.
Is that what you consider a solid investment?
Yes. Even if you bought them at the highest price, you're probably doing somewhat better than breaking even right now. And right now, platinum is somewhat depressed, at about 35% off it's cyclical 5 year peak. If you bought in August of 2008 instead of March, your return is much better.
How did an S&P 500 fund do from early 2008 until now? 1378 then vs. 1308 now. Not quite break even, still off about 5%.
And this doesn't even factor in the fractionals, which react more positively - because of the larger market per Eric's comments above.
Would I have liked the low mintage Burnished Plats to have kicked butt? Of course - but the fact is that they have held their ground pretty well. Frankly, whoever does buy your 1 ozers (especially during this market low) will probably do pretty well in the future, too. Just my opinion.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I think the popularity of the fractional plats (compared to the one-ouncers) is an aftermarket phenomenon, driven by perceived scarcity once the low mintages are known.
With very few exceptions, initial year-of-issue demand for one-ounce proof plats was higher than demand for half-ounce and quarter-ounce specimens - and usually by a hefty margin, once the four-coin sets were subtracted out. This continued to be the case through 2008, the last year of the fractionals, even though the pattern was well established by then.
This tells me that a majority of the stand-alone one-ounce plats were, for the most part, being purchased by collectors who preferred (and could afford) the larger size, and who were not overly concerned about the lower mintages and potential higher returns offered by the fractionals. If most of these collectors purchased their one-ounce plats directly from the Mint, the result was and is lower demand for them in the aftermarket, which is dominated by collectors/investors seeking low-mintage 1/2 ounce and 1/4 ounce fractionals, and collectors on a budget gravitating towards the 1/10 ounce plats.
I still think platinum is a poorly understood metal by most and the coins will suffer somewhat because of that. Of course it gets more attention when it flies higher than gold and that takes a good economy. The crowds may run to plats in good times but run more to gold/silver in bad. In really bad times they just run to lead or their knees.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
You may be right, Overdate, but I'm thinking that one-ounce buyers are more interested in socking away metal than in actual collecting. My guess is that most of them don't care what the date or mintmark is of a coin, they just want to have some Au or Pt put away, and buying from the Mint is an easy way to do that. I hardly ever hear anyone excitedly talking about modern one-ounce platinum coins, and for gold, and the enthusiasm for gold seems only slightly greater. There's a psychology here that I don't fully understand, but I would just rather have a collection of smaller gold or platinum coins than larger ones. I don't think I'm alone in this. Maybe I'm just a candy-a$$.
"I'm no expert, but my impression is that the "big slugs" of any of the burnished eagle issues do not do as well as the smaller denominations. I do think that there is VERY limited interest in the one-ounce platinum coins especially. Someone correct me if I'm wrong."
Grit ... Someone bought all the 1 oz coins and, for that matter, the coins may have even represented the majority of $$$ spent on all the burnished platinum coins from the Mint if you think about it. So, the majority of $$$ spent on all these burnished 1 oz. platinum coins have been a total disaster for those having purchased them (even with their super low relative mintages). Coolest reports what happened when he tried to market his 1 oz. coins. Some want to simply dismiss this reality by suggesting that no one really collects 1 oz coins anyway so we should essentially disregard their performance in considering the burnished platinum complex; notwithstanding the fact that every 4-pc set sold had a 1 oz coin in the set that represented more than 50% of the platinum weight of the entire set.
Why not just report the situation as it really is ...
1. The 06-W set has not been all that great over the past 6 years ... the $100 coins have been horrible. The other coins "so-so" 2. The 07-W set has been horrible over the past 5 years. All 4 denominations. 3. The 08-W $10, $25 & $50 coins have been very good and the $100 coin not so good.
Overall, if one had simply bought all (12) coins from these (3) sets ... and not tried to be a "hero" selecting which coin they thought would be the big winner .... they would not be doing all that well (especially considering other things they could have done with the funds from the US Mint). Hopefully, the next (6) years will be much better than the last (6) years were to these (12) coins.
As always, just my 2 cents. Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I wouldn't argue any of your points, Wondercoin. I actually haven't claimed that the fractionals are doing well--just better than the one-ouncers. I've been surprised and disappointed by the performance of the whole series, but I still like them, and for a lot of reasons. As Eric suggested, I'll hold until I have to let 'em go.
As to analysis, I think the weakness of these coins is directly related to weakness in coin collecting in general. The world has changed so rapidly that few people have--or take--time to sit down and enjoy looking at and thinking about beautiful works of art. Kids especially, but also most adults, have no historical connection to coins anymore. I do think the hobby will survive in some fashion, but it's hard to anticipate when or how or why. It could be that a 2000 mintage of a gold or platinum coin will be considered average or even large in the future. It could be that the population of the 1909-s VDB or a 1916-d already far exceeds the real number of Lincoln and Mercury collectors out there. I hope not, but we'll find out eventually.
<< <i>I wouldn't argue any of your points, Wondercoin. I actually haven't claimed that the fractionals are doing well--just better than the one-ouncers. .....
As to analysis, I think the weakness of these coins is directly related to weakness in coin collecting in general >>
have all the burnished plats...and yeah it has been a solid investment....not great....but solid....and no don't plan on dumping soon....as there really is no huge market for them....
weakness in coin collecting = USM trinket of the quarter.....like i have stated last week...there is no plan to follow or excitement from the USM....only the random opportunity to use your computer skills to acquire a "limited edition" so that you can flip it and try again the next time.....too many people have been burned in the past, and the USM's ineptness in the ordering process has turned off a whole score of potential collectors as they have pretty much given up.....
we have become the instant gratification society and unlike generations of the past, we truly don't respect the value of a collectable over the long term....we want it to be a winner in 1 year or less...
Doing a brief sensitivity analysis: $3,500/$2,884 = 21% over spot currently $3,750/$2,884 = 30% over spot currently
Again, if you paid over $2,000/oz in 2008 - you aren't happy, (same as if you'd bought Facebook at $38.00). If you paid $1,200/oz in 2008 - you are happy, (but I still wouldn't buy Facebook).
The point is - that in early 2008, nobody knew that platinum was about to take a huge dive from over $2,000/oz. to $800/oz. I don't see that as anything but bad timing. It happens. Since that time, platinum and the Plats as well have continued to make up for lost ground, subject to fluctuations in the economy.
When you assess the performance of the Burnished Plats against the Gold Buffs, UHRs or maybe the Burnished AGEs, then sure - everything else is horrible as well, including the Burnished Plats. And compared to *expectations* regarding the low mintage figures, maybe not as good as expected. Still, the series isn't dead (yet) and until it is, those low mintage numbers may yet become significant.
I tend to agree with GritsMan that a portion of the 1 ozers weren't bought by collectors, but by investors who just wanted to stick some away and found the Mint's offerings a convenient way to do it. At the $1,442/oz. level, it strikes me as not a bad way to go.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"we have become the instant gratification society and unlike generations of the past, we truly don't respect the value of a collectable over the long term....we want it to be a winner in 1 year or less..."
Amen.
However, not everyone is too young or just inexperienced to not realize the potential in patience.
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
<< <i>"I've been surprised and disappointed by the performance of the whole series"
You and me both!
Wondercoin >>
I third that.
The worst that I've been killed with any coins was with the 2006 W burnished plats. I first started paying attention to moderns (and numismatics in general) in 2006. I bought my '06 W Burnished Plats as a PCGS MS70FS set. Talk about a BAD move. I finally sold this year and took about a 35% loss. I did so to counter my gains from selling the 25th anniv. ASE coins for tax purposes.
On the other hand, I still hold some sealed and 70 '08 W plat ms and proof sets. If I sold these I would still do well relative to cost - esp. the $50 70FS Plat Proofs.
Of course, had I purchased more '08 W buffs or 08 W AGE Uncs with that money...
Monex gives a trading price of $1587 per oz ($3174) for any Platinum American Eagles. So $3500 is a 10% premium over any other PAE. And $4000 would be a 26% premium over any PAE
Having just received an shipment from the Perth Mint, I have to make a comment....
Most of us have received moderns from The Mint in which the capsules were moving all about the box or even with the coins out of the capsules. I have received plats, buffs, and all manner of less expensive coins in such condition.
I just received three coins from the Pert Mint which I ordered a week or so ago. In addition to a fantastic web site and great overall service, Perth has taken numismatic packaging to the level of an art form. I have never received a single coin all the way from Australia with so much as one capsule out of place of the OGP anything but perfect. If only the U.S. Mint would take a lesson...
<< <i>"we have become the instant gratification society and unlike generations of the past, we truly don't respect the value of a collectable over the long term....we want it to be a winner in 1 year or less..."
Amen.
However, not everyone is too young or just inexperienced to not realize the potential in patience.
John >>
I have been holding my Susan B Anthony dollars since the 80's. I am sure my patience will pay off any day now.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I just received three coins from the Pert Mint which I ordered a week or so ago. In addition to a fantastic web site and great overall service, Perth has taken numismatic packaging to the level of an art form. I have never received a single coin all the way from Australia with so much as one capsule out of place of the OGP anything but perfect. If only the U.S. Mint would take a lesson...
I guess they have trained the kangaroo transporters to hop softly.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>I just received three coins from the Pert Mint which I ordered a week or so ago. In addition to a fantastic web site and great overall service, Perth has taken numismatic packaging to the level of an art form. I have never received a single coin all the way from Australia with so much as one capsule out of place of the OGP anything but perfect. If only the U.S. Mint would take a lesson...
I guess they have trained the kangaroo transporters to hop softly. >>
The way that they package their coins even if the Kangaroo falls on the package I don't think that they'll be any damage.
<< <i>The worst that I've been killed with any coins was with the 2006 W burnished plats >>
I think most would disagree. This was the first broadly talked about flips of the 2006-2008 period and there were many on this site who made significant money on selling MS70 2006-W PLATS.
You may have bought in late in the frenzy - the same can be said about those paying $17-$20K for a 2008-W proof 70 FS Buff set, or other coins that sky rocketed in value and now have retreated.
The problem in the current environment is decreasing demand and mintages - this should be good - and will be good in the LONG run. In the SHORT term, speculators do not want to invest in and hold a coin that could be de-throwned by the next issue that is released.
Been on task lately. Starting next week we have a new series of moderns coverage beginning with a 1500 word introduction article to our kind of basic concepts (this will be nothing new to you guys). Then the following week we open up on the major modern series starting with a 2500 word review of Silver Eagles complete with slab growth rates charts.
Hope you guys like it. Its your kind of stuff. :-)
<< <i>The worst that I've been killed with any coins was with the 2006 W burnished plats >>
I think most would disagree. This was the first broadly talked about flips of the 2006-2008 period and there were many on this site who made significant money on selling MS70 2006-W PLATS.
You may have bought in late in the frenzy - the same can be said about those paying $17-$20K for a 2008-W proof 70 FS Buff set, or other coins that sky rocketed in value and now have retreated.
The problem in the current environment is decreasing demand and mintages - this should be good - and will be good in the LONG run. In the SHORT term, speculators do not want to invest in and hold a coin that could be de-throwned by the next issue that is released. >>
That's why I specified "I" and explained specifically why that was the case with me as opposed to a general statement about that issue. Certainly those who ordered direct from The Mint, and especially had those coins graded and got 70FS's AND sold at the right time did very well. Those who held not so much.
I'm waiting for the 2013 commemorative half dollars myself. Clad, boring, and a terrible topic and design could lead to a repeat of the low mintage 2011 Army Unc half dollars. (Issued at $15.95, they routinely go for over $70 now.)
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
Comments
Thanks for sharing the info tradeshack and
Thanks eric,it should be a good read.Now I'll have to get a subscription lol.Halfway thru the new book eric its a winner.
maybe they will bring then out as a four coin set late in the year
<< <i>Pretty bad. Interest drops more and more. >>
First Spouse Mintages:
2007: 150,896
2008: 48,538
2009: 42,475
2010: 41,121
2011: 23,197*
2012: 0**
*Still selling All but Grant Proof!
**None on sale yet 6 months into the year!
There's no way they're making money on the program, IMO.
<< <i>
<< <i>Pretty bad. Interest drops more and more. >>
First Spouse Mintages:
2007: 150,896
2008: 48,538
2009: 42,475
2010: 41,121
2011: 23,197*
2012: 0**
*Still selling All but Grant Proof!
**None on sale yet 6 months into the year! >>
Seems odd to me. Eliza (first of the 2011 coins) went on sale May 5th last year. That seems late and now they are even further behind and not even on the schedule through August 27th. I smell another Mint brouhaha in the making. It is always interesting to watch the bureaucratic version of the Keystone Cops. And not even a hint of the 1 oz burnished Gold Eagle. What's up with that? Are they returning to the days of Mint and Proof sets only?
<< <i>The mint updated there product schedule through 8/27 but no first spouse gold coins yet?
maybe they will bring then out as a four coin set late in the year
Could you imagine the cost of 4 together? Near $3800. Talk about low sales figures!
I wonder whether it will unseat the 2011 W. The latter is bringing over $4K in PCGS MS70FS now. I have one or two left. I'll have to watch the 2012 W very closely.
Thoughts? Predictions?
On another note, I just wasted $58 on the Star Spangled Banner Silver Dollar silver dollar set. I just like the presentation. I'm such a sucker for Mint stuff sometimes :-(
<< <i>I'm bummed. I noticed that the 2012 Unc AGE is on The Mint schedule for June 28. I was hoping that they would not do one.
I wonder whether it will unseat the 2011 W. The latter is bringing over $4K in PCGS MS70FS now. I have one or two left. I'll have to watch the 2012 W very closely.
Thoughts? Predictions?
Well, I was beginning to think they would not this year. I think there is a good chance the 11's will hold if Romney gets elected.
Link
A few of those spouses are worth more than melt :
Link #2
<< <i>It will be a nail-biter. >>
I think at 8800 +/- coins these will hold a premium no matter what. I guess you could hedge a bit and get some '12's if the budget allows.
<< <i>Yes that Eliza unc coin didn't go out without a fight. It went backorder five times, people must have canceled orders and kept returning coins, but sales say it is under 3000, the first one perhaps. >>
It likely won't be the last. All the other 2011's have lower sales at the moment, and probably were minted in similar numbers. Since they carry last year's date, no more can be struck.
I think the 2011 proofs will prove to be a better value, if final mintages come in at 4000 each or less.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I agree on the proof coins with mintages under 4000, that is only 33% above a 3000 mintage unc, although I still like the unc going under 3000.
<< <i>I was very happy when many of us perchased platinum coins from the mint in 2008 and the final sales figures turned out to be record low numbers. Now four years later they are apparently selling for only a few percent over the cost of platinum for 69 and 70 gradded coins, indicating a very low if any demand for the platinum series. This makes the list of coins I bought from the mint (that that ever held any value above melt) a very, very small list. >>
You are talking about the "W" burnished coins? You are incorrect in saying they are only selling for a few percent over melt, especially on the 70's. I am a BUYER at MUCH more than that even for 69's!
John
Oh well good for those of us that have what we want.....
When I compare the cost of the Burnished Plats to the Burnished AGEs, I was stunned to realize that I had paid almost twice as much for the Burnished Plats from the Mint as I paid for the Burnished AGEs!
That being the case, the Burnished Gold Eagles have done **far better** in terms of the percentages of the gains, especially now considering that gold spot is higher than platinum spot. On the other hand, I'm pleased with how many of the Burnished Plats have done.
As a store of value they've all got perfect records and as a speculation, the 06Ws and 08Ws have appreciated. Not a flipper's paradise, but as a solid investment they've done just fine.
Based on what I'm seeing, their trends are up more recently. Sometimes, the good stuff doesn't happen overnight.
I knew it would happen.
When I did solicit a dealers offer for the pair they said they would pay 3500 for the pair.
Is that what you consider a solid investment?
<< <i>I put the unc and Proof $100 coins on the BST and have had zero interest.
When I did solicit a dealers offer for the pair they said they would pay 3500 for the pair.
Is that what you consider a solid investment? >>
I'm no expert, but my impression is that the "big slugs" of any of the burnished eagle issues do not do as well as the smaller denominations. I do think that there is VERY limited interest in the one-ounce platinum coins especially. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
2008w Platinum is the like the "2008w" one once gold issues. They have very low mintages relative to the rest of the $50 gold but it does not matter much at this point. Very few people want to jump on a 30 coin one once gold set. Very few people want to jump on a 17 coin one once platinum set either.
In our first text we detailed the maturity behavior of the various denominations over time. David almost always slays Goliath on a percentage basis. Rare fractionals in series with some size pull well as do key and semi key silver issues.
A dealer friend of mine that sells a million dollars worth of silver eagles a year on ebay named Steve S. called me last week and he noted that the bulk of the rare fractional plats have found homes with people who have strong hands. He noted that there are a FEW floating around but the market is getting tight and those that hold them have a "mine are not for sale" attitude. Maybe guys like me are the only ones that will ever like the changing reverse collector series structure but if the stable obverse/changing reverse ever becomes mainsteam and rarity is desired then watch out. My frational plats are not for sale unless I get in financial trouble at some point. They can stay in the extended family for the next couple generations.
Eric
2008 was an unusual year for the Proofs, in that they were being sold by the Mint for over $2,000/oz during the first part of the year until platinum crashed. Then they were selling for what, maybe $1,200/oz for the duration. So, your potential investment return is dictated mainly by when you bought them.
Is that what you consider a solid investment?
Yes. Even if you bought them at the highest price, you're probably doing somewhat better than breaking even right now. And right now, platinum is somewhat depressed, at about 35% off it's cyclical 5 year peak. If you bought in August of 2008 instead of March, your return is much better.
How did an S&P 500 fund do from early 2008 until now? 1378 then vs. 1308 now. Not quite break even, still off about 5%.
And this doesn't even factor in the fractionals, which react more positively - because of the larger market per Eric's comments above.
Would I have liked the low mintage Burnished Plats to have kicked butt? Of course - but the fact is that they have held their ground pretty well. Frankly, whoever does buy your 1 ozers (especially during this market low) will probably do pretty well in the future, too. Just my opinion.
I knew it would happen.
With very few exceptions, initial year-of-issue demand for one-ounce proof plats was higher than demand for half-ounce and quarter-ounce specimens - and usually by a hefty margin, once the four-coin sets were subtracted out. This continued to be the case through 2008, the last year of the fractionals, even though the pattern was well established by then.
This tells me that a majority of the stand-alone one-ounce plats were, for the most part, being purchased by collectors who preferred (and could afford) the larger size, and who were not overly concerned about the lower mintages and potential higher returns offered by the fractionals. If most of these collectors purchased their one-ounce plats directly from the Mint, the result was and is lower demand for them in the aftermarket, which is dominated by collectors/investors seeking low-mintage 1/2 ounce and 1/4 ounce fractionals, and collectors on a budget gravitating towards the 1/10 ounce plats.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Grit ... Someone bought all the 1 oz coins and, for that matter, the coins may have even represented the majority of $$$ spent on all the burnished platinum coins from the Mint if you think about it. So, the majority of $$$ spent on all these burnished 1 oz. platinum coins have been a total disaster for those having purchased them (even with their super low relative mintages). Coolest reports what happened when he tried to market his 1 oz. coins. Some want to simply dismiss this reality by suggesting that no one really collects 1 oz coins anyway so we should essentially disregard their performance in considering the burnished platinum complex; notwithstanding the fact that every 4-pc set sold had a 1 oz coin in the set that represented more than 50% of the platinum weight of the entire set.
Why not just report the situation as it really is ...
1. The 06-W set has not been all that great over the past 6 years ... the $100 coins have been horrible. The other coins "so-so"
2. The 07-W set has been horrible over the past 5 years. All 4 denominations.
3. The 08-W $10, $25 & $50 coins have been very good and the $100 coin not so good.
Overall, if one had simply bought all (12) coins from these (3) sets ... and not tried to be a "hero" selecting which coin they thought would be the big winner .... they would not be doing all that well (especially considering other things they could have done with the funds from the US Mint). Hopefully, the next (6) years will be much better than the last (6) years were to these (12) coins.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
As to analysis, I think the weakness of these coins is directly related to weakness in coin collecting in general. The world has changed so rapidly that few people have--or take--time to sit down and enjoy looking at and thinking about beautiful works of art. Kids especially, but also most adults, have no historical connection to coins anymore. I do think the hobby will survive in some fashion, but it's hard to anticipate when or how or why. It could be that a 2000 mintage of a gold or platinum coin will be considered average or even large in the future. It could be that the population of the 1909-s VDB or a 1916-d already far exceeds the real number of Lincoln and Mercury collectors out there. I hope not, but we'll find out eventually.
You and me both!
Wondercoin
<< <i>I wouldn't argue any of your points, Wondercoin. I actually haven't claimed that the fractionals are doing well--just better than the one-ouncers. .....
As to analysis, I think the weakness of these coins is directly related to weakness in coin collecting in general >>
have all the burnished plats...and yeah it has been a solid investment....not great....but solid....and no don't plan on dumping soon....as there really is no huge market for them....
weakness in coin collecting = USM trinket of the quarter.....like i have stated last week...there is no plan to follow or excitement from the USM....only the random opportunity to use your computer skills to acquire a "limited edition" so that you can flip it and try again the next time.....too many people have been burned in the past, and the USM's ineptness in the ordering process has turned off a whole score of potential collectors as they have pretty much given up.....
we have become the instant gratification society and unlike generations of the past, we truly don't respect the value of a collectable over the long term....we want it to be a winner in 1 year or less...
that is what has happened....
jmho
gyros
Doing a brief sensitivity analysis:
$3,500/$2,884 = 21% over spot currently
$3,750/$2,884 = 30% over spot currently
Again, if you paid over $2,000/oz in 2008 - you aren't happy, (same as if you'd bought Facebook at $38.00).
If you paid $1,200/oz in 2008 - you are happy, (but I still wouldn't buy Facebook).
The point is - that in early 2008, nobody knew that platinum was about to take a huge dive from over $2,000/oz. to $800/oz. I don't see that as anything but bad timing. It happens. Since that time, platinum and the Plats as well have continued to make up for lost ground, subject to fluctuations in the economy.
When you assess the performance of the Burnished Plats against the Gold Buffs, UHRs or maybe the Burnished AGEs, then sure - everything else is horrible as well, including the Burnished Plats. And compared to *expectations* regarding the low mintage figures, maybe not as good as expected. Still, the series isn't dead (yet) and until it is, those low mintage numbers may yet become significant.
I tend to agree with GritsMan that a portion of the 1 ozers weren't bought by collectors, but by investors who just wanted to stick some away and found the Mint's offerings a convenient way to do it. At the $1,442/oz. level, it strikes me as not a bad way to go.
I knew it would happen.
Amen.
However, not everyone is too young or just inexperienced to not realize the potential in patience.
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
<< <i>"I've been surprised and disappointed by the performance of the whole series"
You and me both!
Wondercoin >>
I third that.
The worst that I've been killed with any coins was with the 2006 W burnished plats. I first started paying attention to moderns (and numismatics in general) in 2006. I bought my '06 W Burnished Plats as a PCGS MS70FS set. Talk about a BAD move. I finally sold this year and took about a 35% loss. I did so to counter my gains from selling the 25th anniv. ASE coins for tax purposes.
On the other hand, I still hold some sealed and 70 '08 W plat ms and proof sets. If I sold these I would still do well relative to cost - esp. the $50 70FS Plat Proofs.
Of course, had I purchased more '08 W buffs or 08 W AGE Uncs with that money...
So $3500 is a 10% premium over any other PAE.
And $4000 would be a 26% premium over any PAE
Is this correct?
Most of us have received moderns from The Mint in which the capsules were moving all about the box or even with the coins out of the capsules. I have received plats, buffs, and all manner of less expensive coins in such condition.
I just received three coins from the Pert Mint which I ordered a week or so ago. In addition to a fantastic web site and great overall service, Perth has taken numismatic packaging to the level of an art form. I have never received a single coin all the way from Australia with so much as one capsule out of place of the OGP anything but perfect. If only the U.S. Mint would take a lesson...
Now back to our regularly scheduled topics...
<< <i>"we have become the instant gratification society and unlike generations of the past, we truly don't respect the value of a collectable over the long term....we want it to be a winner in 1 year or less..."
Amen.
However, not everyone is too young or just inexperienced to not realize the potential in patience.
John >>
I have been holding my Susan B Anthony dollars since the 80's. I am sure my patience will pay off any day now.
I guess they have trained the kangaroo transporters to hop softly.
<< <i>I just received three coins from the Pert Mint which I ordered a week or so ago. In addition to a fantastic web site and great overall service, Perth has taken numismatic packaging to the level of an art form. I have never received a single coin all the way from Australia with so much as one capsule out of place of the OGP anything but perfect. If only the U.S. Mint would take a lesson...
I guess they have trained the kangaroo transporters to hop softly. >>
The way that they package their coins even if the Kangaroo falls on the package I don't think that they'll be any damage.
<< <i>The worst that I've been killed with any coins was with the 2006 W burnished plats >>
I think most would disagree. This was the first broadly talked about flips of the 2006-2008 period and there were many on this site who made significant money on selling MS70 2006-W PLATS.
You may have bought in late in the frenzy - the same can be said about those paying $17-$20K for a 2008-W proof 70 FS Buff set, or other coins that sky rocketed in value and now have retreated.
The problem in the current environment is decreasing demand and mintages - this should be good - and will be good in the LONG run. In the SHORT term, speculators do not want to invest in and hold a coin that could be de-throwned by the next issue that is released.
Hope you guys like it. Its your kind of stuff. :-)
Eric
<< <i>
<< <i>The worst that I've been killed with any coins was with the 2006 W burnished plats >>
I think most would disagree. This was the first broadly talked about flips of the 2006-2008 period and there were many on this site who made significant money on selling MS70 2006-W PLATS.
You may have bought in late in the frenzy - the same can be said about those paying $17-$20K for a 2008-W proof 70 FS Buff set, or other coins that sky rocketed in value and now have retreated.
The problem in the current environment is decreasing demand and mintages - this should be good - and will be good in the LONG run. In the SHORT term, speculators do not want to invest in and hold a coin that could be de-throwned by the next issue that is released. >>
That's why I specified "I" and explained specifically why that was the case with me as opposed to a general statement about that issue. Certainly those who ordered direct from The Mint, and especially had those coins graded and got 70FS's AND sold at the right time did very well. Those who held not so much.