Very interesting article and analysis. Thanks for passing this along.
As I read the article, it seems to look past the fact that for modern series that are still being minted, the key date status of the coins being used in your analysis is not solid.
In other words, what would happen to the value of the 1995-w SAE (or any other key or semi-key coin) if next year it were undercut, mintage-wise?
It seems to me that this is a risk with modern coins that does not exist with the classic types where mintage has stopped, and if we are going to be "fair", we should take this into consideration.
What are your thoughts on this observation?
Thanks in advance...Mike
Collector of Large Cents, US Type, and modern pocket change.
<< <i>As I read the article, it seems to look past the fact that for modern series that are still being minted, the key date status of the coins being used in your analysis is not solid.
In other words, what would happen to the value of the 1995-w SAE (or any other key or semi-key coin) if next year it were undercut, mintage-wise?
It seems to me that this is a risk with modern coins that does not exist with the classic types where mintage has stopped, and if we are going to be "fair", we should take this into consideration.
What are your thoughts on this observation?
Thanks in advance...Mike >>
We should also take in consideration that there could still be classic keys and semi-key out there that are not accounted for yet. Sure, it is a slim chance but it does happen. Wouldn't it be interesting if a bag of 1804 silver dollars surfaced and what effect it would have on that classic (before the flames start that it couldn’t happen, hypothetical only before the flames start that it couldn't happen)?
<< <i>As I read the article, it seems to look past the fact that for modern series that are still being minted, the key date status of the coins being used in your analysis is not solid.
In other words, what would happen to the value of the 1995-w SAE (or any other key or semi-key coin) if next year it were undercut, mintage-wise?
It seems to me that this is a risk with modern coins that does not exist with the classic types where mintage has stopped, and if we are going to be "fair", we should take this into consideration.
What are your thoughts on this observation?
Thanks in advance...Mike >>
We should also take in consideration that there could still be classic keys and semi-key out there that are not accounted for yet. Sure, it is a slim chance but it does happen. Wouldn't it be interesting if a bag of 1804 silver dollars surfaced and what effect it would have on that classic (before the flames start that it couldn’t happen, hypothetical only before the flames start that it couldn't happen)? >>
Good point. Which do you this is more likely, a large group of key date classics will appear on the market, or a change in the key dates of already existing series? In other words, which series has the larger risk?
Collector of Large Cents, US Type, and modern pocket change.
As a collector of these coins, one thing limiting my increased involvement is this precise risk.
Said simply, it seems to me the risk of the key being replaced by a future release of lower mintage is very real, particularly in comparison to more classic issues which I also collect.
For the person who got in at the issue price, the risk is not as large (percentage wise), but for someone considering investing now in these modern keys, the risk is clearly larger.
Wondering out loud: Has this happened before? What lessons are there for us to learn?
Looking forward to your response....Mike
Collector of Large Cents, US Type, and modern pocket change.
<< <i>As I read the article, it seems to look past the fact that for modern series that are still being minted, the key date status of the coins being used in your analysis is not solid.
In other words, what would happen to the value of the 1995-w SAE (or any other key or semi-key coin) if next year it were undercut, mintage-wise?
It seems to me that this is a risk with modern coins that does not exist with the classic types where mintage has stopped, and if we are going to be "fair", we should take this into consideration.
What are your thoughts on this observation?
Thanks in advance...Mike >>
We should also take in consideration that there could still be classic keys and semi-key out there that are not accounted for yet. Sure, it is a slim chance but it does happen. Wouldn't it be interesting if a bag of 1804 silver dollars surfaced and what effect it would have on that classic (before the flames start that it couldn’t happen, hypothetical only before the flames start that it couldn't happen)? >>
Good point. Which do you this is more likely, a large group of key date classics will appear on the market, or a change in the key dates of already existing series? In other words, which series has the larger risk? >>
Which remined me of the gold coins in the rafters. Anyone ever hear what years/mints/condtions they were?
Great article! I love the content; it both describes, and validates, my collecting habits. Additionally I thought it was well written with a high degree of literary quality … "Murder of a beautiful theory by a gang of brutal facts" (nice)
<< <i>As I read the article, it seems to look past the fact that for modern series that are still being minted, the key date status of the coins being used in your analysis is not solid.
In other words, what would happen to the value of the 1995-w SAE (or any other key or semi-key coin) if next year it were undercut, mintage-wise?
It seems to me that this is a risk with modern coins that does not exist with the classic types where mintage has stopped, and if we are going to be "fair", we should take this into consideration.
What are your thoughts on this observation?
Thanks in advance...Mike >>
We should also take in consideration that there could still be classic keys and semi-key out there that are not accounted for yet. Sure, it is a slim chance but it does happen. Wouldn't it be interesting if a bag of 1804 silver dollars surfaced and what effect it would have on that classic (before the flames start that it couldn’t happen, hypothetical only before the flames start that it couldn't happen)? >>
Good point. Which do you this is more likely, a large group of key date classics will appear on the market, or a change in the key dates of already existing series? In other words, which series has the larger risk? >>
I believe I already answered that question in my original post.
But, consider this, maybe we have a modern coin that is considered the key with a mintage of 5,000. Then, 5 years later, the same series has a mintage of 4,500. So, now we have a coin with a lower mintage but is the the coin with a mintage of 5,000 not a key just because there are 500 more? Looking at some of the classic series', it appears there is a "king" but it also appears there may be more than one key to the series. Also, today's moderns are tomorrows classics.
Do you consider the 1909-S VDB, 1914-D, 1922, 1931-S, 1955 DD, 1972 DD, etc Lincolns modern crap or classics? The last I checked, the series is still in production.
A new, lower-mintage key will not always trash the price of an existing key.
Case in point: The 2006-P reverse proof Silver Eagle (250k) was displaced by the 2011-P (100k). But the price of the 2006-P has actually gone up during the past year, and is now nearly equal to the price of the 2011-P.
<< <i>Great article! I love the content; it both describes, and validates, my collecting habits. Additionally I thought it was well written with a high degree of literary quality … "Murder of a beautiful theory by a gang of brutal facts" (nice) >>
I need the help of others from time to time on getting my content to flow well. We are only as good as the team we play on :-) Debbie and Chuck help me. For example I almost never pick my own titles.
Good stuff Eric. I always learn something new, like picking up 70's at the end of the first year if you want them. For the 25th I went in too early although my average on 70's set is right where the price has stagnated waiting for inventories to dry up.
Currently working with nurmaler. Older transactions....circa 2011 BST transactions Gecko109, Segoja, lpinion, Agblox, oldgumballmachineswanted,pragmaticgoat, CharlieC, onlyroosies, timrutnat, ShinyThingsInPM under login lightcycler
I am still amazed that everybody thinks there is going to be a rise in 25th Anniv sets. I think people have already begin to forget them and we are seeing only "fringe flipping" by a few parties. My prediction: further stagnation and a bit of slip even.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Hmmm... well I can tell you this much. The big wholesale supplies are nearing depletion. Our NGC 70 sets were gone a month ago and we had to buy more ready made sets. The PCGS sets we have are still selling fairly well. At least one other major producer I know has been sold out for a while. I think the bottom came and went.
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
Well as one minor comment before I get on other coin tasks today. What you think about the 25th anniversary set is in fact a statement about what you think is going to go on in the larger silver eagle series. The reason I like them is I think they are the modern Morgan and the coins with mintages lower than that of the typical CC Morgan dollars are going to aquire prices that reflect that over time. The hard part IMHO is how long will series maturity take.
I dont think the 2011S and 2011P even have to stay key to do OK in the long run. 100,000 population Semi Key Morgans are over $500 at the center of their bell line grading curve.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
<< <i>Hmmm... well I can tell you this much. The big wholesale supplies are nearing depletion. Our NGC 70 sets were gone a month ago and we had to buy more ready made sets. The PCGS sets we have are still selling fairly well. At least one other major producer I know has been sold out for a while. I think the bottom came and went.
John >>
Thanks John for the update. I think we will see movent upwards in the next year. Depletion has to occur only question is when that happens.
Currently working with nurmaler. Older transactions....circa 2011 BST transactions Gecko109, Segoja, lpinion, Agblox, oldgumballmachineswanted,pragmaticgoat, CharlieC, onlyroosies, timrutnat, ShinyThingsInPM under login lightcycler
Prices are down on the 25th Anniv. sets from their all-time highs, but I have been actively buying sealed sets this month including quite a few from a number of board members. Even at these lower prices, sellers are cashing out for well over a 100% return in less than 6 months. Not much to dislike there. The graded sets are a little "soft" right now on ebay best I can see, especially the "70" sets on open bid. If one is adequately capitalized, one may just decide to "sit on" their 70 sets for a better day (or not). One risk is the typical "spotting" risk though. It is no fun to have to return coins to the grading services for exchange or compensation. PCGS has an amazing guarantee in my opinion but it is still no fun to have to use it.
How little do I know about these 25th Anniv. set coins .... I "bet" Gyro (one of the smartest guys on this entire message board by the way) at the beginning of this year (a Gyro sandwich) that the 70 sets would outperform AAPL stock by year end. Gyro kept telling me to "buy APPL", "buy APPL", but did I listen? I am almost at the point where I need to "hang up my jock strap" as Gyro is kicking my back side so bad after quarter number 1. How about I buy you half a sandwich now and we cancel this friendly (but tortureous) wager?
Wondercoin
P.S. As always, just my 2 cents.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>I believe I already answered that question in my original post. >>
I must have missed it. All I saw was you mention the odds are remote for classic series, not how that compares to modern series still being produced.
<< <i>But, consider this, maybe we have a modern coin that is considered the key with a mintage of 5,000. Then, 5 years later, the same series has a mintage of 4,500. So, now we have a coin with a lower mintage but is the the coin with a mintage of 5,000 not a key just because there are 500 more? Looking at some of the classic series', it appears there is a "king" but it also appears there may be more than one key to the series. Also, today's moderns are tomorrows classics. >>
I agree. That's why I said key/semi-key in my original post, and that's precisely the scenario I'm asking about. Are there any examples of this? What happened to the price as a result? Is this price variance more or less likely in modern series versus classic series?
<< <i>Do you consider the 1909-S VDB, 1914-D, 1922, 1931-S, 1955 DD, 1972 DD, etc Lincolns modern crap or classics? The last I checked, the series is still in production. >>
Lincolns are kind of a unique series....
All those coins you mention are of a type (if not necessarily a series) no longer produced. In other words, if the 2013 Lincoln mintage was to be lower than the 1909-S VDB, I think it would have a relatively small effect on the value of the 1909-S VDB. Or said a bit differently, I would think the effect of a new key 2013 [insert modern type still being produced] would be larger than the effect on the Lincoln, and larger yet than the value of a new key in the Jefferson series to effect, say, shield nickels.
But really, that's an interesting sidebar to the question I'm asking us to consider.
Collector of Large Cents, US Type, and modern pocket change.
<< <i>Prices are down on the 25th Anniv. sets from their all-time highs, but I have been actively buying sealed sets this month including quite a few from a number of board members. Even at these lower prices, sellers are cashing out for well over a 100% return in less than 6 months. Not much to dislike there. The graded sets are a little "soft" right now on ebay best I can see, especially the "70" sets on open bid. If one is adequately capitalized, one may just decide to "sit on" their 70 sets for a better day (or not). One risk is the typical "spotting" risk though. It is no fun to have to return coins to the grading services for exchange or compensation. PCGS has an amazing guarantee in my opinion but it is still no fun to have to use it.
How little do I know about these 25th Anniv. set coins .... I "bet" Gyro (one of the smartest guys on this entire message board by the way) at the beginning of this year (a Gyro sandwich) that the 70 sets would outperform AAPL stock by year end. Gyro kept telling me to "buy APPL", "buy APPL", but did I listen? I am almost at the point where I need to "hang up my jock strap" as Gyro is kicking my back side so bad after quarter number 1. How about I buy you half a sandwich now and we cancel this friendly (but tortureous) wager?
Wondercoin
P.S. As always, just my 2 cents. >>
i just got lucky....you are way smarter than i am most of the time mitch!!!...year isn't over YET....we'll see said the old greek lady
<< <i>I asked this in the midst of the worthy praise for Eric's article; bad timing.
I'll ask it again:
The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule.
Anyone know what's going on? >>
Don't worry,you're not alone! I've often been ignored as well. Although I'm sorry that I don't have an answer for your question,I'm about to sell an Abigail Adams PCGS69 to the big A next week if no one else wants it. I suspect some are selling coins just to pay their taxes next Tuesday.
I haven't seen anything reported. I would think that if a change was in the works, someone would have seen in the the Federal Register or heard about it on C-SPAN.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Prices are down on the 25th Anniv. sets from their all-time highs, but I have been actively buying sealed sets this month including quite a few from a number of board members. Even at these lower prices, sellers are cashing out for well over a 100% return in less than 6 months. Not much to dislike there. The graded sets are a little "soft" right now on ebay best I can see, especially the "70" sets on open bid. If one is adequately capitalized, one may just decide to "sit on" their 70 sets for a better day (or not). One risk is the typical "spotting" risk though. It is no fun to have to return coins to the grading services for exchange or compensation. PCGS has an amazing guarantee in my opinion but it is still no fun to have to use it.
How little do I know about these 25th Anniv. set coins .... I "bet" Gyro (one of the smartest guys on this entire message board by the way) at the beginning of this year (a Gyro sandwich) that the 70 sets would outperform AAPL stock by year end. Gyro kept telling me to "buy APPL", "buy APPL", but did I listen? I am almost at the point where I need to "hang up my jock strap" as Gyro is kicking my back side so bad after quarter number 1. How about I buy you half a sandwich now and we cancel this friendly (but tortureous) wager?
Wondercoin
P.S. As always, just my 2 cents. >>
Hang in there you will be right in the end!!!!!!! Fourth quater this year will not be kind to APPL
Currently working with nurmaler. Older transactions....circa 2011 BST transactions Gecko109, Segoja, lpinion, Agblox, oldgumballmachineswanted,pragmaticgoat, CharlieC, onlyroosies, timrutnat, ShinyThingsInPM under login lightcycler
The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule.
Anyone know what's going on? >>
Rumor is that they went to Fort Knox and it was empty. They are now exploring ways to mint the Spouses on a new planchet made of chocholate and gold foil. Details later.
Seriously, I would like to know also.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
If you are buying into a modern key coin at full retail and a lower mintage comes along then yes you can see that key possibly lose value. The reason is a lower key means lower demand than that prior key coin mintage.
As to the issue of a Modern key being displaced, it's effect on one's holdings of course depends on how you play the game.
I look at modern keys (or coins with key potential) somewhat like equities - you have to research your buys and you don't just buy and forget about them.
While there is clearly risk when buying keys at full retail after there have been substantial increases, the risk is much less when buying from The Mint just as key potential is being realized or immediately after key status becomes apparent before the rush hits. The latter is a great time to buy retail, before the prices have gone up. Of course, in many cases this window is very short - but it's there.
I bought many of the great issues of '08 just as they were going dark from The Mint. This forum was key to this - esp. loading up on the 08 W $10 AGE Uncs.
I sold many of the 08s too early - after substantial increases but well prior to peaks. Of course, like stocks, selling at the peak is luck. I still made great $ on these and, fortunately, still hold over half.
As to some other issues, just as the Julia Unc went off sale, I quickly bought a PCGS MS70FS on Ebay for about $1100. I held it even when I saw some on FeeBay bringing $3300+. When it was becoming apparent that she would likely be unseated, I sold at $2700.
As it was becoming clear that the 2011 W $50 AGE Unc was going to be a low mintage coin I bought a couple of PCGS MS70FS on FeeBay for $2100. To hedge my bets on a possible 2012 W, I sold one for $4k.
As it was becoming apparent that the 2011 W $50 AGE Unc might (which it did) end up unseating the 2008 W $10 AGE Unc as the new low mintage AGE king, I wondered what this might do the price of the $10. So, I sold my raw and sealed $10s as a hedge for $1100- $1300/coin and kept the 70s - not too shabby for a < $300 investment each.
These are but a few examples. The point is, if an even potentially good coin is recognized early one can buy and sell before it is ever unseated and make a lot of money. Sure, you may loose out a bit if it stays key and goes up more, but you can still lock in some serious profit even if the coin is eventually unseated. I like to buy several of a given issue, sell one or two once the price has increased substantially and hold the rest - often "for free" when the price has more than doubled and I've sold at that level.
I am of course keeping a close eye on any 2012 W $50 AGE and will sell my last 11W 70FS if a 12W is minted and looking to come in low.
The worst that I've been hit in terms of lost profit is, like many, with the pucks. Being that I bought low, I didn't loose principle but I sure wish that I'd sold very early on. I remain surprised at how hard the first five MS pucks have crashed.
Anyway, just my .02. However, this model has worked very well for me. By playing the moderns this way I don't sweat too much whether an issue will be unseated. With fantastic resources such as this forum I usually know where an issue is headed before many sellers on FeeBay and take advantage of this.
With other issues such as the 25the anniv. sets, where near term appreciation/depreciation is less clear, I've sold 7 sets (graded and sealed) and am keeping 7 for now. That way I've been able to lock in some nice profit yet still hold some in case prices rise.
On another subject entirely, I'll just never understand FeeBay buyers. I see that a sealed set recently went for nearly a grand despite several others with BINs much lower. I'll just never understand this. Makes no sense.
On another subject entirely, I'll just never understand FeeBay buyers. I see that a sealed set recently went for nearly a grand despite several others with BINs much lower. I'll just never understand this. Makes no sense. >>
I am sure they will make it up with volume.
Seriously though, there may be some reason for this to happen. Maybe the sellers of lower priced items have something else about them that is a negative. THen again maybe the buyers are just lazy.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I agree Raufus. There is money to made if you keep your eyes open and know the trends. I think the SSB unc will come in low. I bought 5 and sent them off for grading to get in on the FS. Sure hope to see 2 or 3 70's.
May 11th the San Francisco Proof set is supposed to start mintage. When will they go on sale? Should be a good time to sell some 2011 sets I would guess as there is going to be a lot of interest for a few months there.
Picked up all I could of 2011 spouses.
Currently working with nurmaler. Older transactions....circa 2011 BST transactions Gecko109, Segoja, lpinion, Agblox, oldgumballmachineswanted,pragmaticgoat, CharlieC, onlyroosies, timrutnat, ShinyThingsInPM under login lightcycler
<< <i>On another subject entirely, I'll just never understand FeeBay buyers. I see that a sealed set recently went for nearly a grand despite several others with BINs much lower. I'll just never understand this. Makes no sense. >>
I am sure they will make it up with volume.
Seriously though, there may be some reason for this to happen. Maybe the sellers of lower priced items have something else about them that is a negative. THen again maybe the buyers are just lazy. >>
Some sellers of the exact same thing were longstanding, top tier sellers. Just makes no sense.
<< <i>I asked this in the midst of the worthy praise for Eric's article; bad timing.
I'll ask it again:
The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule.
Anyone know what's going on?
Answer: Unless the legislation that created the series is changed they will strike all the planned FS coins. I think John is correct. Do not mistake this series as one of the Mints Priorities.
<< <i>I asked this in the midst of the worthy praise for Eric's article; bad timing.
I'll ask it again:
The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule.
Anyone know what's going on?
Answer: Unless the legislation that created the series is changed they will strike all the planned FS coins. I think John is correct. Do not mistake this series as one of the Mints Priorities. >>
Eliza Johnson was the first of the 2011's and went on sale May 5th 2011. Grant was June 23rd, Hayes was Sept 1st and Garfield was December 1st. They have not wanted to bump into already low sales. They need to get some of the 2011's off the block before bringing more on. I would not be suprised to see miss paul come later in May. Grant Proof is already done.
Currently working with nurmaler. Older transactions....circa 2011 BST transactions Gecko109, Segoja, lpinion, Agblox, oldgumballmachineswanted,pragmaticgoat, CharlieC, onlyroosies, timrutnat, ShinyThingsInPM under login lightcycler
<< <i>As to the issue of a Modern key being displaced, it's effect on one's holdings of course depends on how you play the game.
I look at modern keys (or coins with key potential) somewhat like equities - you have to research your buys and you don't just buy and forget about them.
While there is clearly risk when buying keys at full retail after there have seen substantial increases, the risk is much less when buying from The Mint, just as key potential is being realized or immediately after key status becomes apparent before the rush hits. The latter is a great time to buy retail, before the prices have gone up. Of course, in many cases this window is very short - but it's there.
I bought many of the great issues of '08 just as they were going dark from The Mint. This forum was key to this - esp. loading up on the 08 W $10 AGE Uncs.
I sold many of the 08s too early - after substantial increases but well prior to peaks. Of course, like stocks, selling at the peak is luck. I still made great $ on these and, fortunately, still hold over half.
As to some other issues, just as the Julia Unc went off sale, I quickly bought a PCGS MS70FS on Ebay for about $1100. I held it even when I saw some on FeeBay bringing $3300+. When it was becoming apparent that she would likely be unseated, I sold at $2700.
As it was becoming clear that the 2011 W $50 AGE Unc was going to be a low mintage coin I bought a couple of PCGS MS70FS on FeeBay for $2100. To hedge my bets on a possible 2012 W, I sold one for $4k.
As it was becoming apparent that the 2011 W $50 AGE Unc might (which it did) end up unseating the 2008 W $10 AGE Unc as the new low mintage AGE king, I wondered what this might do the price of the $10. So, I sold my raw and Unc $10s as a hedge for $1100- $1300/coin and kept the 70s - not too shabby for a < $300 investment each.
These are but a few examples. The point is, if an even potentially good coin is recognized early one can buy and sell before it is ever unseated and make a lot of money. Sure, you may loose out a bit if it stays key and goes up more, but you still can lock in some serious profit even if the coins is eventually unseated. I like to buy several of a given issue, sell one or two once the price has increased substantially and hold the rest - often "for free" when the price has more than doubled and I've sold one at that level.
I am of course keeping a close eye on any 2012 W $50 AGE and will sell my last 11W 70FS if a 12W is minted and looking to come in low.
The worst that I've been hit in terms of lost profit is, like many, with the pucks. Being that I bought low, I didn't loose principle but I sure wish that I'd sold very early on. I remain surprised at how hard the first five MS pucks have crashed.
Anyway, just my .02. However, this model has worked very well for me. By playing the moderns this way I don't sweat too much whether an issue will be unseated. With fantastic resources such as this forum I usually know where an issue is headed before many sellers on FeeBay and take advantage of this.
With other issues such as the 25the anniv. sets, where near term appreciation/depreciation is less clear, I've sold 7 sets (graded and sealed) and am keeping 7 for now. That way I've been able to lock in some nice profit yet still hold some in case prices rise.
On another subject entirely, I'll just never understand FeeBay buyers. I see that a sealed set recently went for nearly a grand despite several others with BINs much lower. I'll just never understand this. Makes no sense. >>
Great post, thanks. I learn a lot from this forum too. Was the sealed set on ebay an auction vs a BIN? If so, just figure the gambling mentally took over. If if was BIN vs another BIN, though, maybe they just felt more comfortable with one seller over another and price was not so much the issue. Buying a sealed set off ebay takes some leap of faith, IMO.
<< <i>Speaking of miss Paul. Where does she fit in the series? Not part of the Liberty for sure. Is it enough different to mean something down the road? >>
Just pc garbage. They shouldn't have shoehorned her into this series. Instead they could have made a stand alone commemorative if they wanted. Talk about low mintage numbers. I think they would have done better with a Morgan dollar type liberty.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Great post, thanks. I learn a lot from this forum too. Was the sealed set on ebay an auction vs a BIN? If so, just figure the gambling mentally took over. If if was BIN vs another BIN, though, maybe they just felt more comfortable with one seller over another and price was not so much the issue. Buying a sealed set off ebay takes some leap of faith, IMO. >>
And selling a sealed set on Ebay takes nerves of steel
<< <i>The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule. >>
The First Souses still are not on the Mint's list of upcoming products through June 7. I think it will hurt sales if the Mint introduces 4 spouses in the last half of the year - too many big-ticket items for many people, especially if platinum proofs and burnished AGE's are also available.
Raufus plays the game pretty well in terms of maximizing his leverage on new issues. There is no doubt that if you want to accomplish that type of performance, this is a useful thread.
I wouldn't have jumped on the 1/4 oz. 2008-W Burnished AGE as hard as I did - if it weren't for this forum. The current mintage data, and more importantly the ongoing discussion over what numbers are significant is timely and useful. Same goes for the 2006-W Burnished AGE issues and the info coming from here.
I ignored the excitement here over Julia, much to my chagrin.
The discussions over sales data between Halfstrike and 7over8 bought home the significance of the reporting for returns vs. sales vs. units shipped. Ericj's book made some real advances in terms of understanding the shape of the sales cycle curve.
Mike, if you're getting into Modern Bullion you can't do much better than this thread and the folks who drop by to share their knowledge and information.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Who would have guessed, when this thread started in 2007, that five years later we would consider it a waste of money to buy gold coins with sub-4000 mintages from the Mint at 16% above melt?
<< <i>Who would have guessed, when this thread started in 2007, that five years later we would consider it a waste of money to buy gold coins with sub-4000 mintages from the Mint at 16% above melt? >>
Some have perfect 20/20 hindsight. That's cool. It is what keeps the secondary market alive.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
There are reasons, which I can not get into here, why the spouse coins have not been "hot" of late. That said ... I am still personally very excited about the future of this series and continue to gobble up coins as offered to me. So, please keep offering them!
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Comments
<< <i>Very nice article Eric! And you did not even "hit them" with all the best performers. LOL.
Next time list the Army 50 cent MS Commem and what it has done price-wise and "rock their world".
Wondercoin >>
I had a bunch of the army MS commems graded by PCGS, NGC and ANACS. They sold like hot-cakes
Anyone know what's going on?
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
<< <i>New NN Article on Moderns >>
Very interesting article and analysis. Thanks for passing this along.
As I read the article, it seems to look past the fact that for modern series that are still being minted, the key date status of the coins being used in your analysis is not solid.
In other words, what would happen to the value of the 1995-w SAE (or any other key or semi-key coin) if next year it were undercut, mintage-wise?
It seems to me that this is a risk with modern coins that does not exist with the classic types where mintage has stopped, and if we are going to be "fair", we should take this into consideration.
What are your thoughts on this observation?
Thanks in advance...Mike
<< <i>As I read the article, it seems to look past the fact that for modern series that are still being minted, the key date status of the coins being used in your analysis is not solid.
In other words, what would happen to the value of the 1995-w SAE (or any other key or semi-key coin) if next year it were undercut, mintage-wise?
It seems to me that this is a risk with modern coins that does not exist with the classic types where mintage has stopped, and if we are going to be "fair", we should take this into consideration.
What are your thoughts on this observation?
Thanks in advance...Mike >>
We should also take in consideration that there could still be classic keys and semi-key out there that are not accounted for yet. Sure, it is a slim chance but it does happen. Wouldn't it be interesting if a bag of 1804 silver dollars surfaced and what effect it would have on that classic (before the flames start that it couldn’t happen, hypothetical only before the flames start that it couldn't happen)?
<< <i>
<< <i>As I read the article, it seems to look past the fact that for modern series that are still being minted, the key date status of the coins being used in your analysis is not solid.
In other words, what would happen to the value of the 1995-w SAE (or any other key or semi-key coin) if next year it were undercut, mintage-wise?
It seems to me that this is a risk with modern coins that does not exist with the classic types where mintage has stopped, and if we are going to be "fair", we should take this into consideration.
What are your thoughts on this observation?
Thanks in advance...Mike >>
We should also take in consideration that there could still be classic keys and semi-key out there that are not accounted for yet. Sure, it is a slim chance but it does happen. Wouldn't it be interesting if a bag of 1804 silver dollars surfaced and what effect it would have on that classic (before the flames start that it couldn’t happen, hypothetical only before the flames start that it couldn't happen)? >>
Good point. Which do you this is more likely, a large group of key date classics will appear on the market, or a change in the key dates of already existing series? In other words, which series has the larger risk?
Eric
As a collector of these coins, one thing limiting my increased involvement is this precise risk.
Said simply, it seems to me the risk of the key being replaced by a future release of lower mintage is very real, particularly in comparison to more classic issues which I also collect.
For the person who got in at the issue price, the risk is not as large (percentage wise), but for someone considering investing now in these modern keys, the risk is clearly larger.
Wondering out loud: Has this happened before? What lessons are there for us to learn?
Looking forward to your response....Mike
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>As I read the article, it seems to look past the fact that for modern series that are still being minted, the key date status of the coins being used in your analysis is not solid.
In other words, what would happen to the value of the 1995-w SAE (or any other key or semi-key coin) if next year it were undercut, mintage-wise?
It seems to me that this is a risk with modern coins that does not exist with the classic types where mintage has stopped, and if we are going to be "fair", we should take this into consideration.
What are your thoughts on this observation?
Thanks in advance...Mike >>
We should also take in consideration that there could still be classic keys and semi-key out there that are not accounted for yet. Sure, it is a slim chance but it does happen. Wouldn't it be interesting if a bag of 1804 silver dollars surfaced and what effect it would have on that classic (before the flames start that it couldn’t happen, hypothetical only before the flames start that it couldn't happen)? >>
Good point. Which do you this is more likely, a large group of key date classics will appear on the market, or a change in the key dates of already existing series? In other words, which series has the larger risk? >>
Which remined me of the gold coins in the rafters. Anyone ever hear what years/mints/condtions they were?
story
I love the content; it both describes, and validates, my collecting habits.
Additionally I thought it was well written with a high degree of literary quality … "Murder of a beautiful theory by a gang of brutal facts" (nice)
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>As I read the article, it seems to look past the fact that for modern series that are still being minted, the key date status of the coins being used in your analysis is not solid.
In other words, what would happen to the value of the 1995-w SAE (or any other key or semi-key coin) if next year it were undercut, mintage-wise?
It seems to me that this is a risk with modern coins that does not exist with the classic types where mintage has stopped, and if we are going to be "fair", we should take this into consideration.
What are your thoughts on this observation?
Thanks in advance...Mike >>
We should also take in consideration that there could still be classic keys and semi-key out there that are not accounted for yet. Sure, it is a slim chance but it does happen. Wouldn't it be interesting if a bag of 1804 silver dollars surfaced and what effect it would have on that classic (before the flames start that it couldn’t happen, hypothetical only before the flames start that it couldn't happen)? >>
Good point. Which do you this is more likely, a large group of key date classics will appear on the market, or a change in the key dates of already existing series? In other words, which series has the larger risk? >>
I believe I already answered that question in my original post.
But, consider this, maybe we have a modern coin that is considered the key with a mintage of 5,000. Then, 5 years later, the same series has a mintage of 4,500. So, now we have a coin with a lower mintage but is the the coin with a mintage of 5,000 not a key just because there are 500 more? Looking at some of the classic series', it appears there is a "king" but it also appears there may be more than one key to the series. Also, today's moderns are tomorrows classics.
Do you consider the 1909-S VDB, 1914-D, 1922, 1931-S, 1955 DD, 1972 DD, etc Lincolns modern crap or classics? The last I checked, the series is still in production.
Case in point: The 2006-P reverse proof Silver Eagle (250k) was displaced by the 2011-P (100k). But the price of the 2006-P has actually gone up during the past year, and is now nearly equal to the price of the 2011-P.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Great article!
I love the content; it both describes, and validates, my collecting habits.
Additionally I thought it was well written with a high degree of literary quality … "Murder of a beautiful theory by a gang of brutal facts" (nice) >>
I need the help of others from time to time on getting my content to flow well. We are only as good as the team we play on :-)
Debbie and Chuck help me. For example I almost never pick my own titles.
Eric
I am still amazed that everybody thinks there is going to be a rise in 25th Anniv sets. I think people have already begin to forget them and we are seeing only "fringe flipping" by a few parties. My prediction: further stagnation and a bit of slip even.
Well, just Love coins, period.
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
I dont think the 2011S and 2011P even have to stay key to do OK in the long run. 100,000 population Semi Key Morgans are over $500 at the center of their bell line grading curve.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
<< <i>Hmmm... well I can tell you this much. The big wholesale supplies are nearing depletion. Our NGC 70 sets were gone a month ago and we had to buy more ready made sets. The PCGS sets we have are still selling fairly well. At least one other major producer I know has been sold out for a while. I think the bottom came and went.
John >>
Thanks John for the update. I think we will see movent upwards in the next year. Depletion has to occur only question is when that happens.
How little do I know about these 25th Anniv. set coins .... I "bet" Gyro (one of the smartest guys on this entire message board by the way) at the beginning of this year (a Gyro sandwich) that the 70 sets would outperform AAPL stock by year end. Gyro kept telling me to "buy APPL", "buy APPL", but did I listen? I am almost at the point where I need to "hang up my jock strap" as Gyro is kicking my back side so bad after quarter number 1. How about I buy you half a sandwich now and we cancel this friendly (but tortureous) wager?
Wondercoin
P.S. As always, just my 2 cents.
<< <i>I believe I already answered that question in my original post. >>
I must have missed it. All I saw was you mention the odds are remote for classic series, not how that compares to modern series still being produced.
<< <i>But, consider this, maybe we have a modern coin that is considered the key with a mintage of 5,000. Then, 5 years later, the same series has a mintage of 4,500. So, now we have a coin with a lower mintage but is the the coin with a mintage of 5,000 not a key just because there are 500 more? Looking at some of the classic series', it appears there is a "king" but it also appears there may be more than one key to the series. Also, today's moderns are tomorrows classics. >>
I agree. That's why I said key/semi-key in my original post, and that's precisely the scenario I'm asking about. Are there any examples of this? What happened to the price as a result? Is this price variance more or less likely in modern series versus classic series?
<< <i>Do you consider the 1909-S VDB, 1914-D, 1922, 1931-S, 1955 DD, 1972 DD, etc Lincolns modern crap or classics? The last I checked, the series is still in production. >>
Lincolns are kind of a unique series....
All those coins you mention are of a type (if not necessarily a series) no longer produced. In other words, if the 2013 Lincoln mintage was to be lower than the 1909-S VDB, I think it would have a relatively small effect on the value of the 1909-S VDB. Or said a bit differently, I would think the effect of a new key 2013 [insert modern type still being produced] would be larger than the effect on the Lincoln, and larger yet than the value of a new key in the Jefferson series to effect, say, shield nickels.
But really, that's an interesting sidebar to the question I'm asking us to consider.
<< <i>Prices are down on the 25th Anniv. sets from their all-time highs, but I have been actively buying sealed sets this month including quite a few from a number of board members. Even at these lower prices, sellers are cashing out for well over a 100% return in less than 6 months. Not much to dislike there. The graded sets are a little "soft" right now on ebay best I can see, especially the "70" sets on open bid. If one is adequately capitalized, one may just decide to "sit on" their 70 sets for a better day (or not). One risk is the typical "spotting" risk though. It is no fun to have to return coins to the grading services for exchange or compensation. PCGS has an amazing guarantee in my opinion but it is still no fun to have to use it.
How little do I know about these 25th Anniv. set coins .... I "bet" Gyro (one of the smartest guys on this entire message board by the way) at the beginning of this year (a Gyro sandwich) that the 70 sets would outperform AAPL stock by year end. Gyro kept telling me to "buy APPL", "buy APPL", but did I listen? I am almost at the point where I need to "hang up my jock strap" as Gyro is kicking my back side so bad after quarter number 1. How about I buy you half a sandwich now and we cancel this friendly (but tortureous) wager?
Wondercoin
P.S. As always, just my 2 cents. >>
i just got lucky....you are way smarter than i am most of the time mitch!!!...year isn't over YET....we'll see said the old greek lady
I'll ask it again:
The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule.
Anyone know what's going on?
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
<< <i>I asked this in the midst of the worthy praise for Eric's article; bad timing.
I'll ask it again:
The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule.
Anyone know what's going on? >>
Don't worry,you're not alone! I've often been ignored as well. Although I'm sorry that I don't have an answer for your question,I'm about to sell an Abigail Adams PCGS69 to the big A next week if no one else wants it. I suspect some are selling coins just to pay their taxes next Tuesday.
I haven't seen anything reported. I would think that if a change was in the works, someone would have seen in the the Federal Register or heard about it on C-SPAN.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Prices are down on the 25th Anniv. sets from their all-time highs, but I have been actively buying sealed sets this month including quite a few from a number of board members. Even at these lower prices, sellers are cashing out for well over a 100% return in less than 6 months. Not much to dislike there. The graded sets are a little "soft" right now on ebay best I can see, especially the "70" sets on open bid. If one is adequately capitalized, one may just decide to "sit on" their 70 sets for a better day (or not). One risk is the typical "spotting" risk though. It is no fun to have to return coins to the grading services for exchange or compensation. PCGS has an amazing guarantee in my opinion but it is still no fun to have to use it.
How little do I know about these 25th Anniv. set coins .... I "bet" Gyro (one of the smartest guys on this entire message board by the way) at the beginning of this year (a Gyro sandwich) that the 70 sets would outperform AAPL stock by year end. Gyro kept telling me to "buy APPL", "buy APPL", but did I listen? I am almost at the point where I need to "hang up my jock strap" as Gyro is kicking my back side so bad after quarter number 1. How about I buy you half a sandwich now and we cancel this friendly (but tortureous) wager?
Wondercoin
P.S. As always, just my 2 cents. >>
Hang in there you will be right in the end!!!!!!! Fourth quater this year will not be kind to APPL
The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule.
Anyone know what's going on? >>
Rumor is that they went to Fort Knox and it was empty. They are now exploring ways to mint the Spouses on a new planchet made of chocholate and gold foil. Details later.
Seriously, I would like to know also.
<< <i>I asked this in the midst of the worthy praise for Eric's article; bad timing.
I'll ask it again:
The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule.
Anyone know what's going on? >>
Johnson didn't roll out until May last year so I'm not worried about the spouses
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
I look at modern keys (or coins with key potential) somewhat like equities - you have to research your buys and you don't just buy and forget about them.
While there is clearly risk when buying keys at full retail after there have been substantial increases, the risk is much less when buying from The Mint just as key potential is being realized or immediately after key status becomes apparent before the rush hits. The latter is a great time to buy retail, before the prices have gone up. Of course, in many cases this window is very short - but it's there.
I bought many of the great issues of '08 just as they were going dark from The Mint. This forum was key to this - esp. loading up on the 08 W $10 AGE Uncs.
I sold many of the 08s too early - after substantial increases but well prior to peaks. Of course, like stocks, selling at the peak is luck. I still made great $ on these and, fortunately, still hold over half.
As to some other issues, just as the Julia Unc went off sale, I quickly bought a PCGS MS70FS on Ebay for about $1100. I held it even when I saw some on FeeBay bringing $3300+. When it was becoming apparent that she would likely be unseated, I sold at $2700.
As it was becoming clear that the 2011 W $50 AGE Unc was going to be a low mintage coin I bought a couple of PCGS MS70FS on FeeBay for $2100. To hedge my bets on a possible 2012 W, I sold one for $4k.
As it was becoming apparent that the 2011 W $50 AGE Unc might (which it did) end up unseating the 2008 W $10 AGE Unc as the new low mintage AGE king, I wondered what this might do the price of the $10. So, I sold my raw and sealed $10s as a hedge for $1100- $1300/coin and kept the 70s - not too shabby for a < $300 investment each.
These are but a few examples. The point is, if an even potentially good coin is recognized early one can buy and sell before it is ever unseated and make a lot of money. Sure, you may loose out a bit if it stays key and goes up more, but you can still lock in some serious profit even if the coin is eventually unseated. I like to buy several of a given issue, sell one or two once the price has increased substantially and hold the rest - often "for free" when the price has more than doubled and I've sold at that level.
I am of course keeping a close eye on any 2012 W $50 AGE and will sell my last 11W 70FS if a 12W is minted and looking to come in low.
The worst that I've been hit in terms of lost profit is, like many, with the pucks. Being that I bought low, I didn't loose principle but I sure wish that I'd sold very early on. I remain surprised at how hard the first five MS pucks have crashed.
Anyway, just my .02. However, this model has worked very well for me. By playing the moderns this way I don't sweat too much whether an issue will be unseated. With fantastic resources such as this forum I usually know where an issue is headed before many sellers on FeeBay and take advantage of this.
With other issues such as the 25the anniv. sets, where near term appreciation/depreciation is less clear, I've sold 7 sets (graded and sealed) and am keeping 7 for now. That way I've been able to lock in some nice profit yet still hold some in case prices rise.
On another subject entirely, I'll just never understand FeeBay buyers. I see that a sealed set recently went for nearly a grand despite several others with BINs much lower. I'll just never understand this. Makes no sense.
I am sure they will make it up with volume.
Seriously though, there may be some reason for this to happen. Maybe the sellers of lower priced items have something else about them that is a negative. THen again maybe the buyers are just lazy.
May 11th the San Francisco Proof set is supposed to start mintage. When will they go on sale? Should be a good time to sell some 2011 sets I would guess as there is going to be a lot of interest for a few months there.
Picked up all I could of 2011 spouses.
<< <i>On another subject entirely, I'll just never understand FeeBay buyers. I see that a sealed set recently went for nearly a grand despite several others with BINs much lower. I'll just never understand this. Makes no sense. >>
I am sure they will make it up with volume.
Seriously though, there may be some reason for this to happen. Maybe the sellers of lower priced items have something else about them that is a negative. THen again maybe the buyers are just lazy. >>
Some sellers of the exact same thing were longstanding, top tier sellers. Just makes no sense.
<< <i>I asked this in the midst of the worthy praise for Eric's article; bad timing.
I'll ask it again:
The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule.
Anyone know what's going on?
Answer: Unless the legislation that created the series is changed they will strike all the planned FS coins. I think John is correct. Do not mistake this series as one of the Mints Priorities.
<< <i>
<< <i>I asked this in the midst of the worthy praise for Eric's article; bad timing.
I'll ask it again:
The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule.
Anyone know what's going on?
Answer: Unless the legislation that created the series is changed they will strike all the planned FS coins. I think John is correct. Do not mistake this series as one of the Mints Priorities. >>
Eliza Johnson was the first of the 2011's and went on sale May 5th 2011. Grant was June 23rd, Hayes was Sept 1st and Garfield was December 1st. They have not wanted to bump into already low sales. They need to get some of the 2011's off the block before bringing more on. I would not be suprised to see miss paul come later in May. Grant Proof is already done.
<< <i>As to the issue of a Modern key being displaced, it's effect on one's holdings of course depends on how you play the game.
I look at modern keys (or coins with key potential) somewhat like equities - you have to research your buys and you don't just buy and forget about them.
While there is clearly risk when buying keys at full retail after there have seen substantial increases, the risk is much less when buying from The Mint, just as key potential is being realized or immediately after key status becomes apparent before the rush hits. The latter is a great time to buy retail, before the prices have gone up. Of course, in many cases this window is very short - but it's there.
I bought many of the great issues of '08 just as they were going dark from The Mint. This forum was key to this - esp. loading up on the 08 W $10 AGE Uncs.
I sold many of the 08s too early - after substantial increases but well prior to peaks. Of course, like stocks, selling at the peak is luck. I still made great $ on these and, fortunately, still hold over half.
As to some other issues, just as the Julia Unc went off sale, I quickly bought a PCGS MS70FS on Ebay for about $1100. I held it even when I saw some on FeeBay bringing $3300+. When it was becoming apparent that she would likely be unseated, I sold at $2700.
As it was becoming clear that the 2011 W $50 AGE Unc was going to be a low mintage coin I bought a couple of PCGS MS70FS on FeeBay for $2100. To hedge my bets on a possible 2012 W, I sold one for $4k.
As it was becoming apparent that the 2011 W $50 AGE Unc might (which it did) end up unseating the 2008 W $10 AGE Unc as the new low mintage AGE king, I wondered what this might do the price of the $10. So, I sold my raw and Unc $10s as a hedge for $1100- $1300/coin and kept the 70s - not too shabby for a < $300 investment each.
These are but a few examples. The point is, if an even potentially good coin is recognized early one can buy and sell before it is ever unseated and make a lot of money. Sure, you may loose out a bit if it stays key and goes up more, but you still can lock in some serious profit even if the coins is eventually unseated. I like to buy several of a given issue, sell one or two once the price has increased substantially and hold the rest - often "for free" when the price has more than doubled and I've sold one at that level.
I am of course keeping a close eye on any 2012 W $50 AGE and will sell my last 11W 70FS if a 12W is minted and looking to come in low.
The worst that I've been hit in terms of lost profit is, like many, with the pucks. Being that I bought low, I didn't loose principle but I sure wish that I'd sold very early on. I remain surprised at how hard the first five MS pucks have crashed.
Anyway, just my .02. However, this model has worked very well for me. By playing the moderns this way I don't sweat too much whether an issue will be unseated. With fantastic resources such as this forum I usually know where an issue is headed before many sellers on FeeBay and take advantage of this.
With other issues such as the 25the anniv. sets, where near term appreciation/depreciation is less clear, I've sold 7 sets (graded and sealed) and am keeping 7 for now. That way I've been able to lock in some nice profit yet still hold some in case prices rise.
On another subject entirely, I'll just never understand FeeBay buyers. I see that a sealed set recently went for nearly a grand despite several others with BINs much lower. I'll just never understand this. Makes no sense. >>
Great post, thanks. I learn a lot from this forum too. Was the sealed set on ebay an auction vs a BIN? If so, just figure the gambling mentally took over. If if was BIN vs another BIN, though, maybe they just felt more comfortable with one seller over another and price was not so much the issue. Buying a sealed set off ebay takes some leap of faith, IMO.
<< <i>Speaking of miss Paul. Where does she fit in the series? Not part of the Liberty for sure. Is it enough different to mean something down the road? >>
Just pc garbage. They shouldn't have shoehorned her into this series. Instead they could have made a stand alone commemorative if they wanted. Talk about low mintage numbers. I think they would have done better with a Morgan dollar type liberty.
Great post, thanks. I learn a lot from this forum too. Was the sealed set on ebay an auction vs a BIN? If so, just figure the gambling mentally took over. If if was BIN vs another BIN, though, maybe they just felt more comfortable with one seller over another and price was not so much the issue. Buying a sealed set off ebay takes some leap of faith, IMO. >>
And selling a sealed set on Ebay takes nerves of steel
<< <i>The year's coming up to a third gone. No First Spouse issues for the year, and none listed on the Mint's schedule. >>
The First Souses still are not on the Mint's list of upcoming products through June 7. I think it will hurt sales if the Mint introduces 4 spouses in the last half of the year - too many big-ticket items for many people, especially if platinum proofs and burnished AGE's are also available.
Jim
<< <i>As to the issue of a Modern key being displaced, it's effect on one's holdings of course depends on how you play the game. >>
Thanks for your response, Raufus. I appreciate it.
Eric, I'd appreciate your thoughts on this topic as well, when you get the chance.
Thanks...Mike
I wouldn't have jumped on the 1/4 oz. 2008-W Burnished AGE as hard as I did - if it weren't for this forum. The current mintage data, and more importantly the ongoing discussion over what numbers are significant is timely and useful. Same goes for the 2006-W Burnished AGE issues and the info coming from here.
I ignored the excitement here over Julia, much to my chagrin.
The discussions over sales data between Halfstrike and 7over8 bought home the significance of the reporting for returns vs. sales vs. units shipped. Ericj's book made some real advances in terms of understanding the shape of the sales cycle curve.
Mike, if you're getting into Modern Bullion you can't do much better than this thread and the folks who drop by to share their knowledge and information.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Eliza unc waitlisted today. Thoughts? >>
It's probably the new key for now, but the other two may come in lower.
<< <i>
<< <i>Eliza unc waitlisted today. Thoughts? >>
It's probably the new key for now, but the other two may come in lower. >>
My sealed mint box of Eliza unc and proof will be coming off the shelf soon
<< <i>but the other two may come in lower >>
This is absolutely the problem. Coupled with little interest in the series - little demand for the coins.
I have no interest... whatsoever in these.
Still trying to figure out which is worse, the ATB's or these gold haag's.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Who would have guessed, when this thread started in 2007, that five years later we would consider it a waste of money to buy gold coins with sub-4000 mintages from the Mint at 16% above melt? >>
Some have perfect 20/20 hindsight. That's cool. It is what keeps the secondary market alive.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin