<< <i>I would not trade my ungraded Jackie (likely an MS69) for any of the spouses. Those IMO are late date US Mint/Franklin Mint products that are the numismatic equivalent of Postal Service commem stamps regardless of mintage. >>
I paid $4700 for my NGC Jackie MS70 at the Balto. show a few years ago. Getting nervous. >>
if you want to calm those nerves next time buy it in a PCGS label. same coin/better value. JMHO
<< <i>n simple terms, a year or so ago, a collector had a choice ... own the PCGS-PR70DCAM FS 4-pc Buffalo Gold set or own 13 ozs. of gold. Today, the collector has the choice to own the same Buffalo set or about 6 1/2 - 7 ozs. of gold. Let see where the numbers are a year from now.
Wondercoin
P.S. If that collector selected the 13 ozs. of gold, his pile is worth about $24,500+. If he elected the Buffalo set, his pile is worth around $12,500.
P.S.S. Of course, buyers in 2008 are still doing fine. They would be doing FAR better if they sold their top grade (FS) Buffalos sets a year ago and converted it to gold bullion.
This is a very good point. Do I trade 8 silver eagle rolls for 20 25th Anniversary Sets. 8 rolls X 20=160oz (silver at 44x160=$7040 for 5x20=100oz (Anniversary Boxes @$350x20=$7000). I would be giving up almost $2400 or 60 ounces of Silver to buy the 25th Anniversary ASE sets. >>
slight premium over melt with the anniversary sets. figure in the loss of 60 oz and its a wash IMO.
This is a very good point. Do I trade 8 silver eagle rolls for 20 25th Anniversary Sets. 8 rolls X 20=160oz (silver at 44x160=$7040 for 5x20=100oz (Anniversary Boxes @$350x20=$7000). I would be giving up almost $2400 or 60 ounces of Silver to buy the 25th Anniversary ASE sets. >>
Or you could have the best of both worlds by trading maybe 3-4 rolls for only 2 sets and play both sides of the coin , so to speak
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
We're comparing bullion ASEs made in the multimillions to numismatics made as low as 100k. What "loss" in oz. you are taking by selling the bullion ASEs you are gaining by taking on a numismatic. Just depends on how you want to roll. Wait...was that a bad pun?
Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
i was considering to buy a few 2011 platinum proof from the mint. how are these priced right now, too high, low or just right? What was original issue price? i dont mind holding on to it for a while, just want to know the downside.
<< dOES THE HIGHER PRICE OF gOLD MAKE IT RARER ?? >>
I expect that fewer people will buy them because of the price and the pressure of the economy.
At issue is whether people will find these of interest when discretionary income to America returns in abundance, and whether the interest in coinage as a collectible survives these times.
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
I saw that and thought to myself, Will this open the purchasing floodgates?" >>
I had the exact same thought. Of course, it's a LOT of $ to buy them all and hedge one's bets. This was also the situation in 08 and, needless to say, the results were fantastic. That said, the Spouses are hardly Buffs. Some are UUUUGLY!
That article also begs the question, is it time to start selling the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs?? There is a HUGE premium on them now. If the 2011 W $50 Unc beats it this will likely go down substantially.
<< <i>That article also begs the question, is it time to start selling the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs?? There is a HUGE premium on them now. If the 2011 W $50 Unc beats it this will likely go down substantially. >>
I don't know about that. To me, the 1-ounce size coins are a lot less appealing than the mid-fractionals. I'd guess that many more people collect the quarter-ounce coins as a series than the big slugs.
<< <i>That article also begs the question, is it time to start selling the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs?? There is a HUGE premium on them now. If the 2011 W $50 Unc beats it this will likely go down substantially. >>
I don't know about that. To me, the 1-ounce size coins are a lot less appealing than the mid-fractionals. I'd guess that many more people collect the quarter-ounce coins as a series than the big slugs. >>
Hi Grits-
How bad of a hit do you think that the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs will take if the $50 2011s beat them? The premium is just so huge on the $10s right now.
Of course I have no idea, but my GUESS is they won't take much of a hit at all. They might even go up! This is based only on my personal feelings about the 1-ounce, however. I just don't think it's very interesting.
I'll just toss in my two cents. My impulse is to keep track of mintages and if I feel it in my bones that buying a particular modern bullion is just too expensive and difficult to manage - that is when it's going to be a good purchase.
If I feel that way, there is a reasonable probability that most other potential buyers feel that way, too. Hence, if I look at the mintage near the end of the year and believe it to be good, and if the purchase meets my "feelin too expensive" test - that's when I'll garner my resources.
It was a good move in both 2006 and 2008. We had this type of similar conversation in this thread both of those years, and there was actually a consensus of sorts on various low mintage issues which turned out to be winners. This year may still have some possibilities as well.
As long as the mintages on some of these remain down, the prices of precious metals stay high, and the Mint's barrier to entry - the premiums over spot - remain high, there's no reason to think that the same relationships as before don't still hold true.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
All makes sense, jmski. I just find myself wondering if there's a fundamental shift in collecting habits happening. I hope it's only a temporary setback, but a lot of collectors seem to have left the hobby based on Mint sales figures. Then again, all it would take is a return to some really appealing products, and the whole thing might turn around--oh, that and lower bullion prices!
There's no doubt that discretionary spending is down while pms are way up, which probably does translate into fewer bullion collectors.
The Plats are a prime example of what happens when the price levels diverge from collectors' ability to keep up financially. Their loss of numismatic premiums have been significant.
That isn't to say that Modern Bullion collectors (including Plat collectors) haven't been rewarded - they have. To your point, Grits - I would agree that perhaps collecting habits have changed for many bullion collectors, but I believe that an equally-important question is whether or not the old relationships between mintage and longterm value have changed. I would still guess that they haven't.
To me, the problem isn't just whether or not to keep wading into the 2011 issues, but whether the 2012 issues might be even lower mintages. Everything seems to be pointing that way.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>That article also begs the question, is it time to start selling the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs?? There is a HUGE premium on them now. If the 2011 W $50 Unc beats it this will likely go down substantially. >>
Great question. I myself own 2 and I'm wondering if I should sell one to offset the cost of picking up a 2011-W $50 unc., but damn $2078 is a lot of money to speculate whether or not these are going to be the next key of the series. Gold has just become too expensive to collect right now for me. But I really really want one. Bad.
Beer is Proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy -Benjamin Franklin-
Guys ... besides all the other factors that are at play with the 2011-W $50 Gold Eagle (e.g. potential last minute huge purchase orders, sales into 2012, the fact that the 08-W burnished $50 with its sub-12,000 mintage is worth only about $100 more than a junk (any date) American $50 Gold Eagle right now so if the mint sells 5,000 or so more 2011-W $50's they might suffer the same fate, etc, etc, etc), A KEY QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THE MINT WILL BE COMING OUT WITH THE 25TH ANNIV GOLD SET LATER THIS YEAR (they have already announced the silver set). If it does and if it has the same mintage as 2006 (10,000), the 2011 $50 burnished Gold "is toast" in my opinion. If there are no 25th Aniv gold sets, we simply fall back to the other questions including whatever else I missed - right? So, the first "$64,000 question" is whether the Mint will be coming out with a 25th Anniv Gold Set this year that will include a burnished MS gold eagle? Does anyone know who one might ask to get the answer to that preliminary question?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>That article also begs the question, is it time to start selling the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs?? There is a HUGE premium on them now. If the 2011 W $50 Unc beats it this will likely go down substantially. >>
I doubt it. The premium on the 2006-W $50 Reverse Proof (mintage 10,000) is not all that great, and it's a one-year type coin. The premiums on the 2006-W and 2007-W unc. $25 gold eagles (after adjusting for bullion value) are about as high as the premium on the 2008-W unc. AGE, and their mintages are substantially higher.
The smaller denominations likely have a wider collector base (due to affordability), and I think they will do better pricewise in the long run.
Can you imigine a 25th Anniv. gold set and the price it would have to be: min. 5 x 2100 or so = 10,500! Does the mint have the audacity to sell such a set? I do not think so, but who cares of my opinion...
I too think that bullion collectors are falling by the wayside - in fact I may be one of the casualties! On the fence as to whether to get this 2011 bullion bit and just have NOT pulled the trigger as the outlay of 2100 for only one ounce of gold rubs me wrong. I remember buying the 2008W platinum one ounce unc for exactly 1/2 the price...
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>7Jaguars: Couldn't a 25th anniversary gold set be only 3 coins?
Wondercoin >>
No question, if there is a 25th anniv gold set, like the 20th, it would be three coins. Even at three, it woud be over $6K. I seriously doubt that The Mint would issue a set with a price over $6K. Thus, if there is one (no mention yet) I think that a set of half-ouncers would be more likely - kind of like the two coin buff/age set was.
We have recently passed the 4th anniversary of the start of this thread (Sept. 14, 2007). A lot of unbelievable events have occurred since then, and those of us who followed and participated in this thread from the beginning have gained a wealth of knowledge about moderns. (Thanks, Eric and many others!)
In my initial post on this thread (page 1, post 17), I expressed the opinion that some modern commems might be better values than comparable modern bullion coins. I think it might be interesting to revisit my comments 4 years later:
Saturday September 15, 2007 2:37 AM
I believe that one series that is still a relatively good value is modern commemoratives, especially silver dollars. While 2006-W burnished silver eagles (mintage ~470K) sell for around $100, 1994-D uncirculated Capitol Bicentennial dollars (mintage ~68K) can be found for $20 or less.
The 2006-W burnished silver eagles have dropped to the $60 range, a 40% haircut. The 1994-D Capitol Bicentennial dollars have increased to around $34, a 70% increase.
A 1994-P proof silver eagle (mintage ~372K) brings $175 or more. A 1996-P proof Paralympics silver dollar (mintage ~84K) fetches around $55.
The 1994-P proof silver eagle in OGP is now around $100, a 42% loss. The 1996-P proof Paralympics silver dollar is now around $70, a 27% gain.
The 1991-D uncirculated USO silver dollar (mintage ~125K) is about the same price as a circulated 1922 Peace dollar, a few dollars above melt.
Still the case. Both, of course, are up sharply because of the rising silver price.
The lowest mintage silver eagle, the 1995-W proof (mintage ~30K) sells for $4,000+. The lowest mintage modern commemorative silver dollar, the 1996-D uncirculated Paralympic (mintage ~14.5K) brings less than $350.
The 1995-W proof silver eagle is now around $2,800, a drop of 30%. The 1996-D uncirculated Paralympic silver dollar is around $245, also a drop of 30%.
Overall, the modern commems I cited 4 years ago have managed to equal or exceed the performance of the coins I compared them to.
During the next 4 years, however, I think there is a good possibility that strictly bullion coins will outperform all of the coins listed above.
Overdate it is possible that in 4 years the price of gold and silver are close to what they are today, or maybe even a lot less. I say that as a possibility because we could get a new President that will lower spending so the inflation won't be there, the problems in Europe may have been settled by then. I think gold at close to $2000 an ounce is in nosebleed territory, it really, really hurts 99% of the people to buy at these levels. People were nervous at $1100 gold, then must be panicked now.
I also would not want to be a coin dealer sitting on a lot of bullion when this thing finally turns unless they are hedged. I still think the safest bet is the lowest mintage releases even at these prices. If gold were to tank then they should hold their value the best, at least i hope.
Halfstrike, if the economy does turn around as you suggest, I would expect gold to decline, though not by much. In that scenario I would want to lighten up on gold and switch to platinum, which is still primarily an industrial metal and would probably rise in a recovery.
I think that owning recent low-mintage platinum issues (such as the 2006-to-2008-W burnished and the 2008-W proofs) would make sense during an economic rebound. The scarcity of these coins would hedge the metal value nicely.
Even though I hold some of the 2006-2008w platinums, I believe the low mintage gold is a better bet with way more collectors. I don't hold much hope for the low mintage platinum issues at least not in my lifetime. Thought the 2004 platinum proof issues seem to be holding well. I think these are in stronger hands than the 2008's even though its the lowest mintage.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>I would not trade my ungraded Jackie (likely an MS69) for any of the spouses. Those IMO are late date US Mint/Franklin Mint products that are the numismatic equivalent of Postal Service commem stamps regardless of mintage. >>
I paid $4700 for my NGC Jackie MS70 at the Balto. show a few years ago. Getting nervous. >>
if you want to calm those nerves next time buy it in a PCGS label. same coin/better value. JMHO
<< <i>n simple terms, a year or so ago, a collector had a choice ... own the PCGS-PR70DCAM FS 4-pc Buffalo Gold set or own 13 ozs. of gold. Today, the collector has the choice to own the same Buffalo set or about 6 1/2 - 7 ozs. of gold. Let see where the numbers are a year from now.
Wondercoin
P.S. If that collector selected the 13 ozs. of gold, his pile is worth about $24,500+. If he elected the Buffalo set, his pile is worth around $12,500.
P.S.S. Of course, buyers in 2008 are still doing fine. They would be doing FAR better if they sold their top grade (FS) Buffalos sets a year ago and converted it to gold bullion.
This is a very good point. Do I trade 8 silver eagle rolls for 20 25th Anniversary Sets. 8 rolls X 20=160oz (silver at 44x160=$7040 for 5x20=100oz (Anniversary Boxes @$350x20=$7000). I would be giving up almost $2400 or 60 ounces of Silver to buy the 25th Anniversary ASE sets. >>
slight premium over melt with the anniversary sets. figure in the loss of 60 oz and its a wash IMO.
edit to clarify what i meant.
This is a very good point. Do I trade 8 silver eagle rolls for 20 25th Anniversary Sets. 8 rolls X 20=160oz (silver at 44x160=$7040 for 5x20=100oz (Anniversary Boxes @$350x20=$7000). I would be giving up almost $2400 or 60 ounces of Silver to buy the 25th Anniversary ASE sets. >>
Or you could have the best of both worlds by trading maybe 3-4 rolls for only 2 sets and play both sides of the coin , so to speak
2008 W Platinum 1/10th oz
Opinions..Thx cass
<< <i>Ok guys, why was this coin listed for so long with no takers until today? Is a ms67 really that bad given the low mintage?
2008 W Platinum 1/10th oz
Opinions..Thx cass >>
It seems like buyers of higher premium modern coins are taking a bit of a vacation lately unless they are 70's.
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
DEMAND! These just have a very low demand, sad to say.
Love the price though.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Box of 20
<< <i>Ok guys, why was this coin listed for so long with no takers until today? Is a ms67 really that bad given the low mintage?
2008 W Platinum 1/10th oz
Opinions..Thx cass >>
A coin like that is probably better off cracked out and sold in OGP.
<< <i>The platinums are dead in the water. I stopped collecting these. I do own the 2006-2008 w's. They may see life, but no in my lifetime. >>
That really makes me think twice about collecting moderns.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< Ok guys, why was this coin listed for so long with no takers until today? Is a ms67 really that bad given the low mintage?
2008 W Platinum 1/10th oz
Opinions..Thx cass >>
A coin like that is probably better off cracked out and sold in OGP.
My thoughts exactly. And as a result it makes a little leery of buying older material in OGP. The old crack out game with a twist
<< <i>
<< <i>The platinums are dead in the water. I stopped collecting these. I do own the 2006-2008 w's. They may see life, but no in my lifetime. >>
That really makes me think twice about collecting moderns. >>
But I still will.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>dOES THE HIGHER PRICE OF gOLD MAKE IT RARER ?? >>
It makes it rarer in my budget.
<< <i>Anyone got link to last released mintage numbers for 2011?? >>
Here ya go:
linky
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
I expect that fewer people will buy them because of the price and the pressure of the economy.
At issue is whether people will find these of interest when discretionary income to America returns in abundance, and whether the interest in coinage as a collectible survives these times.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
blog linkly
<< <i>Michael Z of the Mint News Blog had some interesting observations today:
blog linkly >>
Eh, eh! I have been saying that about the Army half dollars for a while! I even did a giveaway for one a few weeks back.
<< <i>Michael Z of the Mint News Blog had some interesting observations today:
blog linkly >>
I saw that and thought to myself, Will this open the purchasing floodgates?"
<< <i>
<< <i>Michael Z of the Mint News Blog had some interesting observations today:
blog linkly >>
I saw that and thought to myself, Will this open the purchasing floodgates?" >>
I had the exact same thought. Of course, it's a LOT of $ to buy them all and hedge one's bets. This was also the situation in 08 and, needless to say, the results were fantastic. That said, the Spouses are hardly Buffs. Some are UUUUGLY!
<< <i>That article also begs the question, is it time to start selling the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs?? There is a HUGE premium on them now. If the 2011 W $50 Unc beats it this will likely go down substantially. >>
I don't know about that. To me, the 1-ounce size coins are a lot less appealing than the mid-fractionals. I'd guess that many more people collect the quarter-ounce coins as a series than the big slugs.
<< <i>I think I will........strongly considering. >>
I'm thinking the same. I have 5 sealed and a couple of MS70s. I think that I'll sell at least two.
What about others? Are you all selling your 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs in anticipation of the 2011 W $50 Unc. beating it?
If it does, while big $$ - esp. when the Silver sets are out in Oct. - the $50s may be worth buying several.
<< <i>
<< <i>That article also begs the question, is it time to start selling the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs?? There is a HUGE premium on them now. If the 2011 W $50 Unc beats it this will likely go down substantially. >>
I don't know about that. To me, the 1-ounce size coins are a lot less appealing than the mid-fractionals. I'd guess that many more people collect the quarter-ounce coins as a series than the big slugs. >>
Hi Grits-
How bad of a hit do you think that the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs will take if the $50 2011s beat them? The premium is just so huge on the $10s right now.
Thanks, R-
If I feel that way, there is a reasonable probability that most other potential buyers feel that way, too. Hence, if I look at the mintage near the end of the year and believe it to be good, and if the purchase meets my "feelin too expensive" test - that's when I'll garner my resources.
It was a good move in both 2006 and 2008. We had this type of similar conversation in this thread both of those years, and there was actually a consensus of sorts on various low mintage issues which turned out to be winners. This year may still have some possibilities as well.
As long as the mintages on some of these remain down, the prices of precious metals stay high, and the Mint's barrier to entry - the premiums over spot - remain high, there's no reason to think that the same relationships as before don't still hold true.
I knew it would happen.
The Plats are a prime example of what happens when the price levels diverge from collectors' ability to keep up financially. Their loss of numismatic premiums have been significant.
That isn't to say that Modern Bullion collectors (including Plat collectors) haven't been rewarded - they have. To your point, Grits - I would agree that perhaps collecting habits have changed for many bullion collectors, but I believe that an equally-important question is whether or not the old relationships between mintage and longterm value have changed. I would still guess that they haven't.
To me, the problem isn't just whether or not to keep wading into the 2011 issues, but whether the 2012 issues might be even lower mintages. Everything seems to be pointing that way.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>That article also begs the question, is it time to start selling the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs?? There is a HUGE premium on them now. If the 2011 W $50 Unc beats it this will likely go down substantially. >>
Great question. I myself own 2 and I'm wondering if I should sell one to offset the cost of picking up a 2011-W $50 unc., but damn $2078 is a lot of money to speculate whether or not these are going to be the next key of the series. Gold has just become too expensive to collect right now for me. But I really really want one. Bad.
Wondercoin
<< <i>That article also begs the question, is it time to start selling the 2008 W $10 AGE Uncs?? There is a HUGE premium on them now. If the 2011 W $50 Unc beats it this will likely go down substantially. >>
I doubt it. The premium on the 2006-W $50 Reverse Proof (mintage 10,000) is not all that great, and it's a one-year type coin. The premiums on the 2006-W and 2007-W unc. $25 gold eagles (after adjusting for bullion value) are about as high as the premium on the 2008-W unc. AGE, and their mintages are substantially higher.
The smaller denominations likely have a wider collector base (due to affordability), and I think they will do better pricewise in the long run.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Does the mint have the audacity to sell such a set?
I do not think so, but who cares of my opinion...
I too think that bullion collectors are falling by the wayside - in fact I may be one of the casualties!
On the fence as to whether to get this 2011 bullion bit and just have NOT pulled the trigger as the
outlay of 2100 for only one ounce of gold rubs me wrong. I remember buying the 2008W platinum
one ounce unc for exactly 1/2 the price...
Well, just Love coins, period.
Wondercoin
<< <i>7Jaguars: Couldn't a 25th anniversary gold set be only 3 coins?
Wondercoin >>
No question, if there is a 25th anniv gold set, like the 20th, it would be three coins. Even at three, it woud be over $6K. I seriously doubt that The Mint would issue a set with a price over $6K. Thus, if there is one (no mention yet) I think that a set of half-ouncers would be more likely - kind of like the two coin buff/age set was.
Well, just Love coins, period.
In my initial post on this thread (page 1, post 17), I expressed the opinion that some modern commems might be better values than comparable modern bullion coins. I think it might be interesting to revisit my comments 4 years later:
Saturday September 15, 2007 2:37 AM
I believe that one series that is still a relatively good value is modern commemoratives, especially silver dollars. While 2006-W burnished silver eagles (mintage ~470K) sell for around $100, 1994-D uncirculated Capitol Bicentennial dollars (mintage ~68K) can be found for $20 or less.
The 2006-W burnished silver eagles have dropped to the $60 range, a 40% haircut.
The 1994-D Capitol Bicentennial dollars have increased to around $34, a 70% increase.
A 1994-P proof silver eagle (mintage ~372K) brings $175 or more. A 1996-P proof Paralympics silver dollar (mintage ~84K) fetches around $55.
The 1994-P proof silver eagle in OGP is now around $100, a 42% loss.
The 1996-P proof Paralympics silver dollar is now around $70, a 27% gain.
The 1991-D uncirculated USO silver dollar (mintage ~125K) is about the same price as a circulated 1922 Peace dollar, a few dollars above melt.
Still the case. Both, of course, are up sharply because of the rising silver price.
The lowest mintage silver eagle, the 1995-W proof (mintage ~30K) sells for $4,000+. The lowest mintage modern commemorative silver dollar, the 1996-D uncirculated Paralympic (mintage ~14.5K) brings less than $350.
The 1995-W proof silver eagle is now around $2,800, a drop of 30%.
The 1996-D uncirculated Paralympic silver dollar is around $245, also a drop of 30%.
Overall, the modern commems I cited 4 years ago have managed to equal or exceed the performance of the coins I compared them to.
During the next 4 years, however, I think there is a good possibility that strictly bullion coins will outperform all of the coins listed above.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
what is the mint doing and thinking??
I also would not want to be a coin dealer sitting on a lot of bullion when this thing finally turns unless they are hedged. I still think the safest bet is the lowest mintage releases even at these prices. If gold were to tank then they should hold their value the best, at least i hope.
I think that owning recent low-mintage platinum issues (such as the 2006-to-2008-W burnished and the 2008-W proofs) would make sense during an economic rebound. The scarcity of these coins would hedge the metal value nicely.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Box of 20