<< I still am not feeling the collector base on the "first hags". >>
If a collector base develops, it will likely be on the Liberty subset. Except for the high-mintage Jefferson's Liberty, the subset has already developed a significant price premium relative to the rest of the First Spouse series. I think the Liberty subset is still underpriced.
<< <i>I also think that none of this (i.e. true collector base) will really shake out until (and if) the economy improves, PMs settle down, and the middle class regains some spending power--which isn't likely as long as corporations control the government.
So Gritsman, corporations don't want anyone to have money? Where do you think their profits come from? >>
They want us to have enough money to buy their stuff, but no more. Policies are pretty clear to anyone paying attention. >>
If I was running a business I would rather be selling to a robust economy and a middle class with lots of money rather than a sluggish economy with poor people. Would I be wrong?
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Greed hath no end...This discussion will raise tempers no doubt and won't contribute much except to say contracting markets do represent opportunity for taking larger market share (eg Standard Oil, etc. through the depression years) and then bet on future growth or upcycling of the economy.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Purchased the 2011-W Gold unc. today. Not sure how low the mintage numbers will be, but wanted to make sure I could get first strike! anyone else buying these?
<< <i>Who cares about FS? I am waiting for more of a dip in gold prices to buy one
I Do!!! I don`t understand why they sell for so much more with FS, But they do especially when they are low mintage and thats undeniable! so if you can`t beat them join them.
Changing reverse platinum fractionals are rare, have beautiful reverse designs and are cohesive. Problem is, coins with great fundamentals can be ignored by the market for a while before they come on. Matt proof gold from the 1906-1915 period comes to mind.
My extended family has mutiple complete sets of all changing reverse issues in UNC and proof. And unlike much of what I hold the plats will go to the younger family members if I dont get in some kind of financial trouble.
<< <i>From the numbers I have the spouse coins [1/2 ounce proof] are already on average more rare than the 1/2 ounce proof plats at this point. 9200 vs. 9500 mintage >>
Thats true but if you graph the mintages and look for keys that are rare relative to their siblings then the proof plats have them beat cold.
Lets look at the proof plat halves and the proof gold spouse coins:
Proof Gold First Spouse 19,815 Jefferson (Liberty) 19,167 Washington 17,943 Madison 17,149 Adams 7,800 Monroe 7,684 Jackson (Liberty) 6,807 Van Buren (Liberty) 6,581 Adams 6,500 * Buchanan (Liberty) 6,251 Harrison 6,000 * Fillmore 5,296 Letitia Tyler
5,151 Sarah Polk 4,941 * Margaret Taylor 4,900 * Pierce 4,844 Julia Tyler
Proof Plat Halves 22,873 Executive 16,937 Executive Reverse Proof 15,431 Eagle Over Sun 13,836 New England 11,103 Wet Lands 11,049 Heart Land 8,772 North West 8,254 South West 7,649 Legislative
7,131 Patriotic Vigilance 5,942 Plenty 5,063 Seated America 4,020 Judicial
There are about 4 spouse gold issues in a tight three hundred coin spread that are so called keys. This is a problem and with high gold prices that may not be all of them before the long and expensive series ends. Notice that each of the lead proof plat halves enjoy clear and stong keys relative to their siblings. Thats what I like to see in a series. I think some of the proof gold hags will develop faster than the proof plats.
In the end game I think the structure that will dominate US collecting markets will be the changing reverse structure because thats what the kids are being taught by the Mint to collect. I have many low mintage first hags and they have been a good buy but the lack of series cohesion and a diluted key date effect may prove to be limitations. The proof plats and unc plats with changing reverse only have one thing holding them back right now in the mind of many and that is they are not gold.
<< I have many low mintage first hags and they have been a good buy but the lack of series cohesion and a diluted key date effect may prove to be limitations. >>
Other limitations are the high price of completing the First Spouse series and the lack of disposable income in today's economy. These are additional reasons for concentrating on the Liberty subset. Only 4 (or 8) coins; excellent series cohesion; a completed subset with known mintages (except for Buchanan, which has well-thought-out estimates and a known upper limit); a clear key in uncirculated and probably two in proof; classic obverse motifs; and high collector interest compared to the rest of the First Spouse series.
Speaking of subsets, the ongoing Platinum series offers collectors multiple options for a cohesive subset series.
Complete 4 coin sets to 2008 Individual fractional coin sets to 2008 1 oz proof sets ongoing.... 3 year complete 4 coin W uncirculated sets 3 year individual fractional coin W uncirculated sets Etc., etc.
Lots of options to fit almost everyones buget.
I would take a moment to suggest everyone hang onto their OGP and pick up any OGP you might be missing as it comes available.
While there will be with time minimal attrition of coins through fire, theft and loss, the OGP will have more rapid attrition.
This was recently brought home to me when a frozen pipe flooded a basement storage area and just missed ruining 50+ platinum and gold OGPs.
I was very comfortable with coins in bank and had not really considered what it would be like trying to replace 50+ OGPs of various 2008-W gold and platinum products.
In 20-30 years it may much easier to find TPG coins than to find coins graded or ungraded complete with OGP.
Yes, there are 4 sizes of plats, but that doesn't necessarily limit their potential. There is plenty of precedent for "same design, multiple sizes" in our circulating coinage, such as Barbers (3 sizes), Liberty Seated (5 sizes, or 6 counting the 20 cent piece), Bust (5 sizes), 18th and 19th Century gold, etc. Bullion gold eagles also have 4 sizes, and all 4 are actively collected.
Realistically, as the price of platinum continues to increase, collectors will probably gravitate to the smaller size plats (1/10 and 1/4 ounce) because of affordability. Many low-mintage proof and burnished plats in the half-ounce and one-ounce sizes were melted during the last run-up, but the smaller ones retained sufficient collector premium to avoid a similar fate. More of the same will probably occur in the future.
It is worth noting that the mint has been able to sell 10,000 or so of the 1 oz. plat proofs at $2000+ in 1 week even though they are no where near key coins for the series.
I doubt they can reach 10,000 in sales for any FS coins due in next 1-2 years at less than 1/2 that price.
Remember ...........price does not = mintage alone Rather ..................price = a product of mintage and demand
<< <i>Isn't it true that there has to be many more platinum collectors than gold spouse collectors? Almost all said they hate the series of regular spouses here, so hoarding of these doesn't seem to be happening. I think plats were hoarded to some extend, at least with the 2008's [I did].
Anyway just my two cents, in a decade we will see. The modern gold commemoratives have shown high valuations for those at 10,000 and under with half the gold, the gold buffaloes the same. Yes these are uglies but at a third of those mintages I am not worried, especially with so many against them.
Right now you would think it would be easy to buy the back series of spouse coins for low premiums but it is a chore to do it now. What about in ten years?
I expect the lowest mintage plats to do very well, don't get me wrong. But I equally see these as doing well, if not much, much better as an overall investment. >>
I dont think those of us who are paying attention think the rare first hags are not going to do just fine. I told you guys in 2009 that 2010 was going to be a fine year for hags. I have load of them and I dont plan to sell any time soon but they do have problems, their own unique set of problems. Go look at the long term behavior of the old silver commems and see the ghost of Christmas future.
Does anyone know what the First Strike eligibility dates are for the 2011-W Gold Eagle Uncirculated coin? Can't seem to find it on the PCGS website. Is it simply the official release date on the US Mint website plus 30 days, or do they extend the dates slightly? It seems the eligibility date for the Proof version was extended by one week?
2010 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Uncirculated Coin – Mary Todd Lincoln (X69) Price: $891.00 Product will be available for shipping 06/09/2011
It is on backorder now. It seems that the Mint hasn't stuck that many UNC Mary Lincoln as the latest report shows only 3,586 sold.
I just ordered a few more and hope a could get at least one.
<< <i>Does anyone know what the First Strike eligibility dates are for the 2011-W Gold Eagle Uncirculated coin? Can't seem to find it on the PCGS website. Is it simply the official release date on the US Mint website plus 30 days, or do they extend the dates slightly? It seems the eligibility date for the Proof version was extended by one week? >>
You can just call PCGS and ask.
Who's buying this one?? May well be THE coin of 2011. A lot of $ to gamble to find out though.
Raufus, I think it will be a sleeper coin with a reasonable potential to be a very good coin. There are 2 potential hangups with it however. It costs quite a bit, and it has no set of fractionals to compete against (for your coin funds), meaning that the mintages might go a little higher than you or I would want.
For the money, the lower-cost Proof Silver Quarters and the Burnished "W" ASEs might do better on a percentage basis, especially if the Mint drags out the timing for the burnished ASEs into late Oct - Nov. Might want to keep some powder dry for that.
The 1st Year Puck issues might do ok, but it's gonna be a few years before we even have a clue about that. With all the games being played by the Mint APs, I have my doubts that anyone else has a shot at much appreciation because of the pre-distribution grading fiascos and the secret backdoor deals.
The 1 ozer Proof Plat - well, I think anything beyond just having a nice design to look at might be wishful thinking and not alot more than that.
Like I suggested once in a different thread, Eliza just might have "the right stuff".
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I was going to wait and see how the 2011 W AGE Uncs do, but I don't want to miss the FS deadline, which that would of course entail. Hard to know what to do. Your point about the fractionals is very well taken and one that I had not thought of.
Which thread are your Eliza comments on? I'm very interested to read it.
Finally, why do you believe that the 2011 Silver Quarter Proof Set will do well as compared to other years?
Raufus, most of my comments are based on an ongoing study of the mintages, both past & present - and an assessment of the current mintage status after a quick peek at my finances of the moment.
The 2011-W 1 oz. AGE has a whole 11 months to develop a history. Buying one for FS is justifiable imo. Then again, who will ever buy it? I have a couple of the key 2008-Ws in FS, but I don't see a huge demand for them. If you buy one with FS intentions, you are buying it for posterity. The most likely scenario is that gold will continue to increase in price, which is both good and bad for this coin. If that happens, the premium will be destroyed while it's value increases. In some ways, it's like buying a low-risk hedge position.
Initial sales are not huge, which is basically true for every 2011 issue so far. I believe that the economy factors in hugely, in light of the high premiums that the Mint charges for collector bullion. That's always been a dual-edged sword. Bad on the front end, good on the back end. Eric's book has some good predictive chart info for mintages, but we need a bit more time in order to judge. Hey, it's always been that way!
My Eliza comments are brief. Look at the image on the coin. Look at the economy. Look at your budget. lol, it can't be a high mintage coin. It just can't.
The silver proof sets, both quarters and regular sets - are in a downward trend on an annual basis. When will the trend hit it's lows? What will silver do in the meantime? How much of a market will exist when we come out the other side of the poor economy/high silver prices paradigm? This situation is also like having a hedge position. For practical purposes - with regard to these silver issues - the worst thing to do is nothing. They will appreciate because of scarcity, or because of high silver prices. The worst scenario is the least likely - that the economy booms, silver prices drop - and everybody buys a bunch of these silver issues. How likely is that?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The Mary Lincoln UNC has really gone off the radar. I believe it will be a winner over time, maybe next to Julia Tyler in terms of secondary market appreciation.
<< <i>The Mary Lincoln UNC has really gone off the radar. I believe it will be a winner over time, maybe next to Julia Tyler in terms of secondary market appreciation.
I hope some of my 5/25 backorder will be filled. >>
Eliza, Eliza, what a charmer...not. There was much debate here in 2009 with Eric and others that the Julia coin would be the lowest in the "hag" series. I stated back then that the rest of the 19th century hags sans Mary Todd may have that title chance. If there is a new title holder she will be no where near the beauty Julia is.
I agree with comrade-j about Eliza and the battle for your bucks with the onslaught of silver pucks, high PM prices, possible double dip recession, "volatile food and energy" costs, etc.
I think product numbers will increase starting with E. Roosevelt and peek with Jackie K. But that's a long way off. If gold is where Sinclair think it will be in a few years, then these "hags" could cost a whopping $1,500 to $2,000! If that's the case the lowest in mintage is still a few years away.
<< <i>Raufus, most of my comments are based on an ongoing study of the mintages, both past & present - and an assessment of the current mintage status after a quick peek at my finances of the moment.
The 2011-W 1 oz. AGE has a whole 11 months to develop a history. Buying one for FS is justifiable imo. Then again, who will ever buy it? I have a couple of the key 2008-Ws in FS, but I don't see a huge demand for them. If you buy one with FS intentions, you are buying it for posterity. The most likely scenario is that gold will continue to increase in price, which is both good and bad for this coin. If that happens, the premium will be destroyed while it's value increases. In some ways, it's like buying a low-risk hedge position.
Initial sales are not huge, which is basically true for every 2011 issue so far. I believe that the economy factors in hugely, in light of the high premiums that the Mint charges for collector bullion. That's always been a dual-edged sword. Bad on the front end, good on the back end. Eric's book has some good predictive chart info for mintages, but we need a bit more time in order to judge. Hey, it's always been that way!
My Eliza comments are brief. Look at the image on the coin. Look at the economy. Look at your budget. lol, it can't be a high mintage coin. It just can't.
The silver proof sets, both quarters and regular sets - are in a downward trend on an annual basis. When will the trend hit it's lows? What will silver do in the meantime? How much of a market will exist when we come out the other side of the poor economy/high silver prices paradigm? This situation is also like having a hedge position. For practical purposes - with regard to these silver issues - the worst thing to do is nothing. They will appreciate because of scarcity, or because of high silver prices. The worst scenario is the least likely - that the economy booms, silver prices drop - and everybody buys a bunch of these silver issues. How likely is that?
>>
Hi jmski-
Thanks once again for an very interesting and insightful post.
I purchased two of the 2011 W $50 AGEs in PCGS MS70FS w/the 25th anniv. label. In the end, with CC rewards, the seller knocking a few bucks off for two, ebay bucks, etc. they came in about $250 each more than had I bought them and had them graded myself. So, worse case I think that - barring a gold crash - I'll be able to get out of them at a minimal loss if any shold it turn out to be a high mintage issue. That said, I like the coin. It's unique in that it's the only $50 W AGE w/a business strike finish. I didn't see much down side. I bought two so that if it does well I can sell one and keep one - sure wish I'd done that w/my PCGS Julia Unc. MS70FS!!
Although I see folks collecting the First Spouse “liberty series” and picking up the 08’s and 09’s for low mintage etc…..what I do not get is the following.
For instance the Margret Taylor and Abigail Fillmore coins were available from the mint up until recently. The prices of the previous coins (2008 and 2009) WERE already on the move up while these were still available. So if someone wanted them they could have got it from the mint.
What am I missing on these 2 coins? Are there more collectors in this series within the past few months?
<< <i>Although I see folks collecting the First Spouse “liberty series” and picking up the 08’s and 09’s for low mintage etc…..what I do not get is the following.
For instance the Margret Taylor and Abigail Fillmore coins were available from the mint up until recently. The prices of the previous coins (2008 and 2009) WERE already on the move up while these were still available. So if someone wanted them they could have got it from the mint.
What am I missing on these 2 coins? Are there more collectors in this series within the past few months?
Thanks >>
Besides the "Liberty Subset", I don't think the demand to collect the whole series is that high. I think the major reason for people to collect the First Spouse coins is due to their low mintages.
Therefore, when they are still available from the Mint, the demand will be low because they are not "rare". Once they are sold out with low mintage, demand will pick up and the price will be driven up.
Comments
If a collector base develops, it will likely be on the Liberty subset. Except for the high-mintage Jefferson's Liberty, the subset has already developed a significant price premium relative to the rest of the First Spouse series. I think the Liberty subset is still underpriced.
"Four (or eight) coins, no hags!"
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>I also think that none of this (i.e. true collector base) will really shake out until (and if) the economy improves, PMs settle down, and the middle class regains some spending power--which isn't likely as long as corporations control the government.
So Gritsman, corporations don't want anyone to have money? Where do you think their profits come from? >>
They want us to have enough money to buy their stuff, but no more. Policies are pretty clear to anyone paying attention. >>
If I was running a business I would rather be selling to a robust economy and a middle class with lots of money rather than a sluggish economy with poor people. Would I be wrong?
Well, just Love coins, period.
Happy Mothers Day to all the Golden spouses!!
Miles
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Who cares about FS? I am waiting for more of a dip in gold prices to buy one
I Do!!! I don`t understand why they sell for so much more with FS, But they do especially when they are low mintage and thats undeniable! so if you can`t beat them join them.
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
My extended family has mutiple complete sets of all changing reverse issues in UNC and proof. And unlike much of what I hold the plats will go to the younger family members if I dont get in some kind of financial trouble.
Eric
Box of 20
<< <i>From the numbers I have the spouse coins [1/2 ounce proof] are already on average more rare than the 1/2 ounce proof plats at this point. 9200 vs. 9500 mintage >>
Thats true but if you graph the mintages and look for keys that are rare relative to their siblings then the proof plats have them beat cold.
Lets look at the proof plat halves and the proof gold spouse coins:
Proof Gold First Spouse
19,815 Jefferson (Liberty)
19,167 Washington
17,943 Madison
17,149 Adams
7,800 Monroe
7,684 Jackson (Liberty)
6,807 Van Buren (Liberty)
6,581 Adams
6,500 * Buchanan (Liberty)
6,251 Harrison
6,000 * Fillmore
5,296 Letitia Tyler
5,151 Sarah Polk
4,941 * Margaret Taylor
4,900 * Pierce
4,844 Julia Tyler
Proof Plat Halves
22,873 Executive
16,937 Executive Reverse Proof
15,431 Eagle Over Sun
13,836 New England
11,103 Wet Lands
11,049 Heart Land
8,772 North West
8,254 South West
7,649 Legislative
7,131 Patriotic Vigilance
5,942 Plenty
5,063 Seated America
4,020 Judicial
There are about 4 spouse gold issues in a tight three hundred coin spread that are so called keys. This is a problem and with high gold prices that may not be all of them before the long and expensive series ends. Notice that each of the lead proof plat halves enjoy clear and stong keys relative to their siblings. Thats what I like to see in a series. I think some of the proof gold hags will develop faster than the proof plats.
In the end game I think the structure that will dominate US collecting markets will be the changing reverse structure because thats what the kids are being taught by the Mint to collect. I have many low mintage first hags and they have been a good buy but the lack of series cohesion and a diluted key date effect may prove to be limitations. The proof plats and unc plats with changing reverse only have one thing holding them back right now in the mind of many and that is they are not gold.
Just MHO
Eric
Other limitations are the high price of completing the First Spouse series and the lack of disposable income in today's economy. These are additional reasons for concentrating on the Liberty subset. Only 4 (or 8) coins; excellent series cohesion; a completed subset with known mintages (except for Buchanan, which has well-thought-out estimates and a known upper limit); a clear key in uncirculated and probably two in proof; classic obverse motifs; and high collector interest compared to the rest of the First Spouse series.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Complete 4 coin sets to 2008
Individual fractional coin sets to 2008
1 oz proof sets ongoing....
3 year complete 4 coin W uncirculated sets
3 year individual fractional coin W uncirculated sets
Etc., etc.
Lots of options to fit almost everyones buget.
I would take a moment to suggest everyone hang onto their OGP and pick up any OGP you might be missing as it comes available.
While there will be with time minimal attrition of coins through fire, theft and loss, the OGP will have more rapid attrition.
This was recently brought home to me when a frozen pipe flooded a basement storage area and just missed ruining 50+ platinum and gold OGPs.
I was very comfortable with coins in bank and had not really considered what it would be like trying to replace 50+ OGPs of various 2008-W gold and platinum products.
In 20-30 years it may much easier to find TPG coins than to find coins graded or ungraded complete with OGP.
Eric
2009-W Julia Tyler $10 First Spouse Gold PCGS MS70 FS Mint State 70 First Strike
SKU: SKU23275
CALL MCM to place an order
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Our price: $2,999.00
Quantity
Now that is a spousal price rise !!!!! Go Julia......
Realistically, as the price of platinum continues to increase, collectors will probably gravitate to the smaller size plats (1/10 and 1/4 ounce) because of affordability. Many low-mintage proof and burnished plats in the half-ounce and one-ounce sizes were melted during the last run-up, but the smaller ones retained sufficient collector premium to avoid a similar fate. More of the same will probably occur in the future.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I doubt they can reach 10,000 in sales for any FS coins due in next 1-2 years at less than 1/2 that price.
Remember ...........price does not = mintage alone
Rather ..................price = a product of mintage and demand
I haven't seen any sales reporting on the 1 oz. 2011-W AGE at all yet. Something tells me that it's not a hot seller yet, maybe never.
Platinum will have it's day.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Isn't it true that there has to be many more platinum collectors than gold spouse collectors? Almost all said they hate the series of regular spouses here, so hoarding of these doesn't seem to be happening. I think plats were hoarded to some extend, at least with the 2008's [I did].
Anyway just my two cents, in a decade we will see. The modern gold commemoratives have shown high valuations for those at 10,000 and under with half the gold, the gold buffaloes the same. Yes these are uglies but at a third of those mintages I am not worried, especially with so many against them.
Right now you would think it would be easy to buy the back series of spouse coins for low premiums but it is a chore to do it now. What about in ten years?
I expect the lowest mintage plats to do very well, don't get me wrong. But I equally see these as doing well, if not much, much better as an overall investment. >>
I dont think those of us who are paying attention think the rare first hags are not going to do just fine. I told you guys in 2009 that 2010 was going to be a fine year for hags. I have load of them and I dont plan to sell any time soon but they do have problems, their own unique set of problems. Go look at the long term behavior of the old silver commems and see the ghost of Christmas future.
Edit. Pulled the trigger on an unc and proof johnson. Just don't think they will get any cheaper.
<< <i>WOW! From MCM's website:
2009-W Julia Tyler $10 First Spouse Gold PCGS MS70 FS Mint State 70 First Strike
SKU: SKU23275
CALL MCM to place an order
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Our price: $2,999.00
Quantity
Now that is a spousal price rise !!!!! Go Julia...... >>
Will it sell at that price? I've seen them linger on FeeBay in that range for quite some time.
Price: $891.00
Product will be available for shipping 06/09/2011
It is on backorder now.
It seems that the Mint hasn't stuck that many UNC Mary Lincoln as the latest report shows only 3,586 sold.
I just ordered a few more and hope a could get at least one.
<< <i>Does anyone know what the First Strike eligibility dates are for the 2011-W Gold Eagle Uncirculated coin? Can't seem to find it on the PCGS website. Is it simply the official release date on the US Mint website plus 30 days, or do they extend the dates slightly? It seems the eligibility date for the Proof version was extended by one week? >>
You can just call PCGS and ask.
Who's buying this one?? May well be THE coin of 2011. A lot of $ to gamble to find out though.
Eric, what do you think of this one?
For the money, the lower-cost Proof Silver Quarters and the Burnished "W" ASEs might do better on a percentage basis, especially if the Mint drags out the timing for the burnished ASEs into late Oct - Nov. Might want to keep some powder dry for that.
The 1st Year Puck issues might do ok, but it's gonna be a few years before we even have a clue about that. With all the games being played by the Mint APs, I have my doubts that anyone else has a shot at much appreciation because of the pre-distribution grading fiascos and the secret backdoor deals.
The 1 ozer Proof Plat - well, I think anything beyond just having a nice design to look at might be wishful thinking and not alot more than that.
Like I suggested once in a different thread, Eliza just might have "the right stuff".
I knew it would happen.
Thanks so much for your insightful post!!
You have some very good points.
I was going to wait and see how the 2011 W AGE Uncs do, but I don't want to miss the FS deadline, which that would of course entail. Hard to know what to do. Your point about the fractionals is very well taken and one that I had not thought of.
Which thread are your Eliza comments on? I'm very interested to read it.
Finally, why do you believe that the 2011 Silver Quarter Proof Set will do well as compared to other years?
Thanks!!
R-
The 2011-W 1 oz. AGE has a whole 11 months to develop a history. Buying one for FS is justifiable imo. Then again, who will ever buy it? I have a couple of the key 2008-Ws in FS, but I don't see a huge demand for them. If you buy one with FS intentions, you are buying it for posterity. The most likely scenario is that gold will continue to increase in price, which is both good and bad for this coin. If that happens, the premium will be destroyed while it's value increases. In some ways, it's like buying a low-risk hedge position.
Initial sales are not huge, which is basically true for every 2011 issue so far. I believe that the economy factors in hugely, in light of the high premiums that the Mint charges for collector bullion. That's always been a dual-edged sword. Bad on the front end, good on the back end. Eric's book has some good predictive chart info for mintages, but we need a bit more time in order to judge. Hey, it's always been that way!
My Eliza comments are brief. Look at the image on the coin. Look at the economy. Look at your budget. lol, it can't be a high mintage coin. It just can't.
The silver proof sets, both quarters and regular sets - are in a downward trend on an annual basis. When will the trend hit it's lows? What will silver do in the meantime? How much of a market will exist when we come out the other side of the poor economy/high silver prices paradigm? This situation is also like having a hedge position. For practical purposes - with regard to these silver issues - the worst thing to do is nothing. They will appreciate because of scarcity, or because of high silver prices. The worst scenario is the least likely - that the economy booms, silver prices drop - and everybody buys a bunch of these silver issues. How likely is that?
I knew it would happen.
The Mary Lincoln UNC has really gone off the radar. I believe it will be a winner over time, maybe next to Julia Tyler in terms of secondary market appreciation.
I hope some of my 5/25 backorder will be filled.
<< <i>The Mary Lincoln UNC has really gone off the radar. I believe it will be a winner over time, maybe next to Julia Tyler in terms of secondary market appreciation.
I hope some of my 5/25 backorder will be filled. >>
How many Mary Lincoln proofs been sold?
<< <i>Never mind, I think I found it; 5,822 >>
It's 6,236 in the latest update.
I agree with comrade-j about Eliza and the battle for your bucks with the onslaught of silver pucks, high PM prices, possible double dip recession, "volatile food and energy" costs, etc.
I think product numbers will increase starting with E. Roosevelt and peek with Jackie K. But that's a long way off. If gold is where Sinclair think it will be in a few years, then these "hags" could cost a whopping $1,500 to $2,000! If that's the case the lowest in mintage is still a few years away.
r95
<< <i>Raufus, most of my comments are based on an ongoing study of the mintages, both past & present - and an assessment of the current mintage status after a quick peek at my finances of the moment.
The 2011-W 1 oz. AGE has a whole 11 months to develop a history. Buying one for FS is justifiable imo. Then again, who will ever buy it? I have a couple of the key 2008-Ws in FS, but I don't see a huge demand for them. If you buy one with FS intentions, you are buying it for posterity. The most likely scenario is that gold will continue to increase in price, which is both good and bad for this coin. If that happens, the premium will be destroyed while it's value increases. In some ways, it's like buying a low-risk hedge position.
Initial sales are not huge, which is basically true for every 2011 issue so far. I believe that the economy factors in hugely, in light of the high premiums that the Mint charges for collector bullion. That's always been a dual-edged sword. Bad on the front end, good on the back end. Eric's book has some good predictive chart info for mintages, but we need a bit more time in order to judge. Hey, it's always been that way!
My Eliza comments are brief. Look at the image on the coin. Look at the economy. Look at your budget. lol, it can't be a high mintage coin. It just can't.
The silver proof sets, both quarters and regular sets - are in a downward trend on an annual basis. When will the trend hit it's lows? What will silver do in the meantime? How much of a market will exist when we come out the other side of the poor economy/high silver prices paradigm? This situation is also like having a hedge position. For practical purposes - with regard to these silver issues - the worst thing to do is nothing. They will appreciate because of scarcity, or because of high silver prices. The worst scenario is the least likely - that the economy booms, silver prices drop - and everybody buys a bunch of these silver issues. How likely is that?
Hi jmski-
Thanks once again for an very interesting and insightful post.
I purchased two of the 2011 W $50 AGEs in PCGS MS70FS w/the 25th anniv. label. In the end, with CC rewards, the seller knocking a few bucks off for two, ebay bucks, etc. they came in about $250 each more than had I bought them and had them graded myself. So, worse case I think that - barring a gold crash - I'll be able to get out of them at a minimal loss if any shold it turn out to be a high mintage issue. That said, I like the coin. It's unique in that it's the only $50 W AGE w/a business strike finish. I didn't see much down side. I bought two so that if it does well I can sell one and keep one - sure wish I'd done that w/my PCGS Julia Unc. MS70FS!!
Thanks for the great post!!
Best, Ron
Lincoln,
Garfield,
McKinley
Kennedy
<< <i>The Widow Subset.
Lincoln,
Garfield,
McKinley
Kennedy >>
Also Anna Harrison, Florence Harding and Eleanor Roosevelt.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>The Widow Subset.
Lincoln,
Garfield,
McKinley
Kennedy >>
Also Anna Harrison, Florence Harding and Eleanor Roosevelt. >>
Overdate good work, and Margaret Taylor too so that is 8 total.
Four were widowed by assassination, and four by natural causes.
Mary Todd Lincoln,
Lucretia Garfield,
Ida McKinley
Jacqueline Kennedy
Anna Harrison
Margaret Taylor
Florence Harding
Eleanor Roosevelt
<< <i>There is are two sub-subsets, assassination and natural causes. Does anybody know if any of the First Ladies were left handed? >>
***
LOLOL I love it.
08’s and 09’s for low mintage etc…..what I do not get is the following.
For instance the Margret Taylor and Abigail Fillmore coins were available from the mint up until recently.
The prices of the previous coins (2008 and 2009) WERE already on the move up while these were still available.
So if someone wanted them they could have got it from the mint.
What am I missing on these 2 coins?
Are there more collectors in this series within the past few months?
Thanks
Series Life Cycles, Market Inventory, Absorption, Price & Time
Eric
<< <i>Although I see folks collecting the First Spouse “liberty series” and picking up the
08’s and 09’s for low mintage etc…..what I do not get is the following.
For instance the Margret Taylor and Abigail Fillmore coins were available from the mint up until recently.
The prices of the previous coins (2008 and 2009) WERE already on the move up while these were still available.
So if someone wanted them they could have got it from the mint.
What am I missing on these 2 coins?
Are there more collectors in this series within the past few months?
Thanks >>
Besides the "Liberty Subset", I don't think the demand to collect the whole series is that high. I think the major reason for people to collect the First Spouse coins is due to their low mintages.
Therefore, when they are still available from the Mint, the demand will be low because they are not "rare". Once they are sold out with low mintage, demand will pick up and the price will be driven up.
Box of 20
7,001 final mintage
2007 non W $50 mint state platinum eagle