<< <i>I definitely agree with jmski52 . The low mintage gold spouse coins are really interesting. It seems like all of us recognize the potential of gold coins with mintages under 5,000, but there doesn't seem to be any speculative feeding frenzy. Maybe it's post '08-09 collector/speculator fatigue, or the immense burden of taking on the First Spouse series, or the problem of picking a key in an ongoing, unpopular and expensive series. At some point, though, it's hard to ignore that some of these coins will almost certainly prove winners when the dust settles and we get our legs back.
I also agree with 2manycoins2fewfunds. I can't imagine that the prices we've seen recently (for instance, with FS buffalo gold sets selling for $15k+) can continue at the breakneck pace. I suppose there might still be room for profit, but the rate of return will slow. >>
I suspect the person that paid $15K for the Buff set is a true collector and does not expect a profit.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I think the raw and 69 2008 w buffalo gold should keep going higher, ,the rebound in 2009 proof ounce sales shows the demand is there for this series.
Platinum is still a risky long-term investment based on auto demand, not sure I would want to own the high mintage plats. Short-term the outlook is great, who knows long-term.
The spouse coins are a jumbled series, low mintage yes, low demand yes. The lowest mintage will do well but what is that mintage is the question. I like the Liberty coins though, after next year that will be a finished set and demand can take over.
<< <i>I think the raw and 69 2008 w buffalo gold should keep going higher, ,the rebound in 2009 proof ounce sales shows the demand is there for this series.
Platinum is still a risky long-term investment based on auto demand, not sure I would want to own the high mintage plats. Short-term the outlook is great, who knows long-term.
The spouse coins are a jumbled series, low mintage yes, low demand yes. The lowest mintage will do well but what is that mintage is the question. I like the Liberty coins though, after next year that will be a finished set and demand can take over. >>
"low mintage, low demand". Low demand is what creates low sales and mintage on unrestricted coins. The question is will demand increase later. I would like to know what the audited actual mintage numbers is on the Spouse coins. We could see some breath-taking surprises there after seing the changes on the Eagle and Buffalo numbers. I will say I sent some back to the mint.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I agree with Miles. It's just hard to get excited about these spouses. Even if the Mint said the maximum mintage was going to be lowered to 500 each from now on, I'd still think seriously before getting one. Doesn't mean they won't go up. Just means the designs are less than inspiring.
Of course, we see this with foreign issues all the time. Many countries put out coins with mintages in the low thousands or even hundreds. Some very nice coins, too, but they usually languish. It's possible with the First Spouse series that the Mint is moving toward that "so what" status.
The only spouses I am collecting are the Liberty. So far I have them all in PCGS 70 with two more to go. These I am keeping for myself, not for a gain.
I think there will be a rebound with the sales of the next Liberty and Mary Lincoln coins, but i doubt it lasts when you look at the photos of the following spouses.
<< <i>I agree with Miles. It's just hard to get excited about these spouses. Even if the Mint said the maximum mintage was going to be lowered to 500 each from now on, I'd still think seriously before getting one. Doesn't mean they won't go up. Just means the designs are less than inspiring.
I guess I am just different but I like a lot of the designs. I think what killed them was putting old "hags" in bonnets on the first coins. I saw a younger portrait of Abigale Adams on tv last night and even though she was a bit plain, a younger portrait would have been more asthetically pleasing. Kind of like the early young Elvis verses the drugged-out ,fat ,old Elvis. I think the Julia Tyler coin with her dancing is fantastic. Where else have you seen that?
One other thing. If the buffalos are so inspiring to everyone then why were collector sales so low? Don't get me wrong, I like the buffs but original sales were not that good.
p.s. I am not implying that Abigale was drugged out.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>I agree with Miles. It's just hard to get excited about these spouses. Even if the Mint said the maximum mintage was going to be lowered to 500 each from now on, I'd still think seriously before getting one. Doesn't mean they won't go up. Just means the designs are less than inspiring.
Of course, we see this with foreign issues all the time. Many countries put out coins with mintages in the low thousands or even hundreds. Some very nice coins, too, but they usually languish. It's possible with the First Spouse series that the Mint is moving toward that "so what" status. >>
To find the truth to this statement you need look no farther then the Royal Mint in the UK. Many Gold Britannias have mintage in the 4-500s but sell for very little over melt here in the United States. The prices are higher in the UK which makes it harder for us to purchase as most coins are held there.
I would like to know what the coin collector base is in Europe compared to the United States. I don't think Europeans are as collector crazy as Americans but that is just my feeling- I could be totally wrong. Also, I think Americans interest in European coins is very very small.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>I would like to know what the coin collector base is in Europe compared to the United States. I don't think Europeans are as collector crazy as Americans but that is just my feeling- I could be totally wrong. Also, I think Americans interest in European coins is very very small. >>
I'd be curious about this too--not to mention in Asia. Do Asians collect mostly Asian coins? Do Europeans collect mostly European coins? I have no idea!
"One other thing. If the buffalos are so inspiring to everyone then why were collector sales so low? Don't get me wrong, I like the buffs but original sales were not that good."
i think you need to look at your data again, if your talking just about 2008, there were 2 factors that you need to think about.
1. the price of gold. 2. they were pulled before most people could get them.
i tried to get an proof set, but could not from the mint.i went with the uncir, set . and than had to piece a proof set later, before everything went nuts....and i thought i over paid than.
<< <i>"One other thing. If the buffalos are so inspiring to everyone then why were collector sales so low? Don't get me wrong, I like the buffs but original sales were not that good."
i think you need to look at your data again, if your talking just about 2008, there were 2 factors that you need to think about.
1. the price of gold. 2. they were pulled before most people could get them.
i tried to get an proof set, but could not from the mint.i went with the uncir, set . and than had to piece a proof set later, before everything went nuts....and i thought i over paid than. >>
Well if it was the price of gold then that might apply to the Spouse coins also. They also have a pretty hefty premium over the melt value. Now on the availability of the Buffs it seemed to me that they had a decent period before they were sold out. I mean it wasn't like the Reverse Proof Eagles that sold out in a day or so. If I recall right it seems the mint even put the 1/10 oz unc. on sale for a short while for near $100. I wish I jumped on that offer.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>"One other thing. If the buffalos are so inspiring to everyone then why were collector sales so low? Don't get me wrong, I like the buffs but original sales were not that good."
i think you need to look at your data again, if your talking just about 2008, there were 2 factors that you need to think about.
1. the price of gold. 2. they were pulled before most people could get them.
i tried to get an proof set, but could not from the mint.i went with the uncir, set . and than had to piece a proof set later, before everything went nuts....and i thought i over paid than. >>
Well if it was the price of gold then that might apply to the Spouse coins also. They also have a pretty hefty premium over the melt value. Now on the availability of the Buffs it seemed to me that they had a decent period before they were sold out. I mean it wasn't like the Reverse Proof Eagles that sold out in a day or so. If I recall right it seems the mint even put the 1/10 oz unc. on sale for a short while for near $100. I wish I jumped on that offer. >>
yeah your not kidding..... but just look at 2009, the uncir sold out at 200,000 , and thats all the mint made. the proof will out sell 2007 but i don't think 2006.here's a link at the mintages linky
i like the idea of a sub liberty set, but i see the spouse coins going nowhere.
i like the idea of a sub liberty set, but i see the spouse coins going nowhere. >>
I think it depends on your time frame. In the long run I think the dynamics of low mintage and growing collector base will drive these up in value. All it takes is a catylist and these can catch on fire. For now I just hope collector interest remains low. That is how rarities are created. I am thinking that when the low mintages hit the Red book for a few years there will be an increased interest in them. I may be wrong but I think a large portion of collectors have no idea how low the mintages are.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>pcgs,ngc,first strike,early release what happened to the coin. i hope thats where the value is. >>
I just can't believe what is being paid for the FS label. Do these folks really think that the label will retain such value over time? Just makes no sense to me at all. Nice to be the sellers!!!!!
<< <i>I agree with Miles. It's just hard to get excited about these spouses. Even if the Mint said the maximum mintage was going to be lowered to 500 each from now on, I'd still think seriously before getting one. Doesn't mean they won't go up. Just means the designs are less than inspiring.
Of course, we see this with foreign issues all the time. Many countries put out coins with mintages in the low thousands or even hundreds. Some very nice coins, too, but they usually languish. It's possible with the First Spouse series that the Mint is moving toward that "so what" status. >>
To find the truth to this statement you need look no farther then the Royal Mint in the UK. Many Gold Britannias have mintage in the 4-500s but sell for very little over melt here in the United States. The prices are higher in the UK which makes it harder for us to purchase as most coins are held there. >>
And the Royal Canadian Mint is even closer....
I will say that I collect some Aussy., Perth Mint and Canadian Moderns. Some have been incredible with huge flipping opportunities. The Aussy. Red Back Spider and the Treasures of Australia Sapphires issue come to mind amongst several others...
In addition to flipping, there are some great issues out there...
<< <i>I think 2010 will be a very special year for SF gold and that looks will be almost as important as mintages. >>
What is SF gold?
snman >>
I think that he meant FS (First Spouse) gold.
In response to that availability of the Buffs., when we all went on a feeding frenzy and backed up the truck on Nov. 13 it was all there for the taking....what a glorious day that was!!!! I don't remember how long they remained on sale.
I was one of those who was backordered on the Plat proof sets and received them months later.
Although not as rewarding, I remember the exact day that the 2008 proof plats went dark because so many of them went dark on that day. It was December 8. If you were asleep that day, you had to go the backordered route.
Guys our friends at the mint strike to "anticipated demand". Now we know the sales have been dropping in a random manner for the last 3 years for the first hags. The last ms coins to sell were the Adams and VanBuren in the 4200-4300 range. Now the seriously ugly Anna is going out in the 3100-3200 range as is the Letitia issue unless something changes. The Mint is seeing demand in the 3-4 K range at this time. Now if they strike the issues for this year in this range that may indicate that the Buchanan will be short struck also. Point being even if demand bounces back some this year after KPs book comes out that covers the FS coins in great detail we may just go from a situation where the first half of the year does not sell well due to lack of demand and the second half of the year has low mintages because so few were struck sell outs start showing up.
The trick is just being low mintage may not be good enough because the series as horrible cohesion problems and each coin is going to stand or fall on its own combination of rarity and looks. A seriously ugly old hag thats lowest mintage by say 5% may languish endlessly while a 3,900 mintage good looking coin or more importantly key date to the 4 coin liberty set takes off and runs.
Guys the fractional mint marked gold holding incredibly tight bottlenecks in massive multi million coin populations are gone, the amazingly popular buffs worth having are gone, the fractional plats with their awesome sub 5,000 mintages that have good series cohesion and consistently good designs came and went. There is nothing left for the foreseeable future but the first hags because Congress will not let the mint scrap them. Some are non key dogs and will be melt for ever until the day comes that so many have been sold for scrap and melted into bars that they become dark horses keys. But you can count on it.......... good looking US gold in the 3-4k mintage range will produce some serious winners and there are precious few other places to look (unless you want to chase never to be great 10k mintage $100 plats and 50,000 mintage gold $50 buffs).
It is my view that the 4-coin liberty set will be a serious collector item over time. The only question in this regard is will the Buchanan or the Vanburen rule the set and by extension be the greatest of the first hags? If Christmas comes early the Buchanan will be struck to anticipated demand and come in 3,xxx in a sell out when it’s too late to strike more. Then we will be back off the races. The flippers that pulled down 20,000 ugly old women in 48 hours will start looking at them again and as usual the opportunity will vanish and a bottom may be formed.
Yes I will be watching the first hags very closely this year. I think those that want a Buchanan should buy what they need for their set when they go on sale and not play chicken with the Mint and the sales report. Vanburren and Buchanan as a pair will have their day. Some other issues may too but they are harder to forecast this far out.
Good night,
Eric Jordan
PS: There you guys go getting me into another long rant! :-)
Point being even if demand bounces back some this year after KPs book comes out that covers the FS coins in great detail we may just go from a situation where the first half of the year does not sell well due to lack of demand and the second half of the year has low mintages because so few were struck sell outs start showing up.
I don't think that sell outs will occur on the Spouse coins until they have been out one year or they hit 20k. That seems to be the pattern.
Also, why does the Spouse series have "cohesion problems"? I don't get that. They are all female wives of Presidents with maybe the exception of Hillary.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Here's how much the meaning of "low mintage" has changed since the early years of the modern commem era.
The 1986 Statue of Liberty uncirculated $5 gold, with a mintage of about 95,000, traded as high as $700 (or $1400 in today's dollars) during the year following its release.
Today an uncirculated $10 Van Buren Liberty (mintage 4334), containing twice as much gold, can be acquired at around 60 percent of that inflation-adjusted price.
I don't think that sell outs will occur on the Spouse coins until they have been out one year or they hit 20k. That seems to be the pattern.
Answer: Remember the first spouse issue last year that sold out? They did not sell many but again they were struck to anticipated demand.
Also, why does the Spouse series have "cohesion problems"? I don't get that. They are all female wives of Presidents with maybe the exception of Hillary. >>
Answer: Like commems they do not have a consistent obverse or reverse design to promote cohesion. Making that point in detail over many years of data is too long a point to try to address in this format. Its covered in KPs text.
I think Alice Paul will be a confusing coin since she was not a First Spouse, and doesn't fit in with any of the other coins. I would guess that unless the mint makes it clear on the coin that she was born during the time of the Arthur Presidency many will assume she was his spouse or fiancee. It would be nice if the mint asked Congress to change the law and allow them to add a 5th Liberty coin to the series to avoid confusion.
For 1885 they could strike the Indian Head Liberty design in gold and give us a winner of a coin.
I do not necessarily agree that the Van Buren can be thought of as key to the sub-series, since its 4334 sales are only 9% off the Jackson's 4754. In absolute terms you're talking 400-some coins. The Jackson is already quite scarce and Jackson is a much more important and recognized popular figure than VB.
<< <i>I don't think that sell outs will occur on the Spouse coins until they have been out one year or they hit 20k. That seems to be the pattern.
Answer: Remember the first spouse issue last year that sold out? They did not sell many but again they were struck to anticipated demand.
I think they were struck to ACTUAL demand by small batch production. Look at the Spouse coins last year and I think you will find that each issue was "sold out" shortly after 1 year of being put on sale from the Mint. I think it is more a schedule limitation versus a supply from my observations.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Maybe I'm like a lot of others but regardless of mintages the First Spouse series just simply doesn't interest me.
Now I'll speculate and flip with the best of them but I'd rather have a safe deposit box full of APE and Buffalos rather than a similar $$$ investment in FSs.
I'm sure I'll miss a few good deals but I expect in the end the demand for the APEs and Buffalos will remain greater than demand for FSs and market will be more liquid.
I don't think I have seen any line of U.S. coins that have more people proudly professing their dislike of with the exception of, maybe, the SBA's. Those are hated by everyone. I will continue to be a rebel and collect them and when the hot chicks come out later and the coins gain in popularity I will be laughing all the way to eBay.
That's right. You know, hot chicks like Eleanor Rosevelt. Wow.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
>> I think they were struck to ACTUAL demand by small batch production. Look at the Spouse coins last year and I think you will find that each issue was "sold out" shortly after 1 year of being put on sale from the Mint. I think it is more a schedule limitation versus a supply from my observations. <<
True for the Van Buren but not for the Jackson, if I remember correctly. The Jackson sold out *before* the customary date when a new First Spouse was put on sale and an old one was removed from sale. The Van Buren was available all the way up to the date that the Margaret Taylor FS was introduced.
<< <i>>> I think they were struck to ACTUAL demand by small batch production. Look at the Spouse coins last year and I think you will find that each issue was "sold out" shortly after 1 year of being put on sale from the Mint. I think it is more a schedule limitation versus a supply from my observations. <<
True for the Van Buren but not for the Jackson, if I remember correctly. The Jackson sold out *before* the customary date when a new First Spouse was put on sale and an old one was removed from sale. The Van Buren was available all the way up to the date that the Margaret Taylor FS was introduced. >>
I don't think there is a way to review the sell-out dates from the mint but to my recollection it seemed that Jackson was near the 1 year mark. Look a Anna Harrison. She went on sale March 5. I will bet she goes black shortly after that date this year. If not then I will have to find a chocolate hat to eat.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>True for the Van Buren but not for the Jackson, if I remember correctly. The Jackson sold out *before* the customary date when a new First Spouse was put on sale and an old one was removed from sale. The Van Buren was available all the way up to the date that the Margaret Taylor FS was introduced. >>
You do remember correctly. The Jackson sellout surprised a few people. It was close to the "scheduled" date, but definitely before. I think the MS went first, then the proof followed a few days later (or vice-versa). They definitely struck it to anticipated demand, but when the supplies ran out, that was it.
If I remember right the Jackson proof sold out with about two weeks to go so they probably decided it wasn't worth the effort to strike more coins at that time. I would guess the mint initially does a large run on the coins and that is it unless they get more orders later.
If the Jackson had sold out of available stock a month early they might have struck more but with two weeks and the UNC still available they probably said forget it.
But we will see with the Buchanan and Mary Lincoln how many they strike as I think the TV guys will push Mary Lincoln and sales will be higher.
I believe there was another reason why more Jacksons were not struck after the sellout. Since the coin was dated 2008 and sold out in 2009, the Mint would have needed to restrike it as a back-dated coin. If I remember correctly, current Mint policy is to not strike coins with previous years' dates.
It would seem to me that since they usually hit their sell-out target date pretty close that they probably keep inventory very small and mint in small batches based on orders after the intiial run.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>Anyone care to wager a guess on if the recent price drop in the shiny metals is simply a correction...or something more?
Is it a buying opportunity (back up the truck) or time to cut and run (dump the truck)?
And of course we're talking about coins here...so we don't have to go to the PM forum! >>
My guess is that this correction (in coins ) is temporary. I mean, have the fundamentals for paper money and the world economy improved? Not that I can see. So much of it is psychology, though, that it seems that things could always go up or down.
<My guess is that this correction (in coins ) is temporary. I mean, have the fundamentals for paper money and the world economy improved? Not that I can see. So much of it is psychology, though, that it seems that things could always go up or down. >
I tend to agree...how exactly does the Greek/Portuguese economies imploding and bringing the Euro down...essentially help the outlook for the US economy? Other than an initial knee-jerk (Euro down/Dollar up) reaction, I'm not seeing how gold becomes any less useful in a potentially inflationary future environment?
I think so much of the underlaying value of gold and silver coins is distorted by speculators and government intervention that it is hard to tell the real forces at work. I have the belief that eventually reality has to catch up and fundamentals will rule. My feeling is that the value of gold and silver coins will stay strong until our government finds a brain laying around to use.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Paying spot today for that monster box of '010 eagles bought last week Limited time offer. Please PM me for details. Who knows what the mint's intentions are for this game they play ? Since it's not in commerce, I'm left to conjecture.
An MS70 2008 W Plat unc set just went for $4500. Are they going down in price? I have not been following very closley but I thought that 70 sets were doing better than that.
<< <i><My guess is that this correction (in coins ) is temporary. I mean, have the fundamentals for paper money and the world economy improved? Not that I can see. So much of it is psychology, though, that it seems that things could always go up or down. >
I tend to agree...how exactly does the Greek/Portuguese economies imploding and bringing the Euro down...essentially help the outlook for the US economy? Other than an initial knee-jerk (Euro down/Dollar up) reaction, I'm not seeing how gold becomes any less useful in a potentially inflationary future environment? >>
I'm surprised the dollar is pulling that much flight to ""safety"" money instead of something else.... even gold.
Comments
<< <i>I definitely agree with jmski52 . The low mintage gold spouse coins are really interesting. It seems like all of us recognize the potential of gold coins with mintages under 5,000, but there doesn't seem to be any speculative feeding frenzy. Maybe it's post '08-09 collector/speculator fatigue, or the immense burden of taking on the First Spouse series, or the problem of picking a key in an ongoing, unpopular and expensive series. At some point, though, it's hard to ignore that some of these coins will almost certainly prove winners when the dust settles and we get our legs back.
I also agree with 2manycoins2fewfunds. I can't imagine that the prices we've seen recently (for instance, with FS buffalo gold sets selling for $15k+) can continue at the breakneck pace. I suppose there might still be room for profit, but the rate of return will slow. >>
I suspect the person that paid $15K for the Buff set is a true collector and does not expect a profit.
Platinum is still a risky long-term investment based on auto demand, not sure I would want to own the high mintage plats. Short-term the outlook is great, who knows long-term.
The spouse coins are a jumbled series, low mintage yes, low demand yes. The lowest mintage will do well but what is that mintage is the question. I like the Liberty coins though, after next year that will be a finished set and demand can take over.
<< <i>I think the raw and 69 2008 w buffalo gold should keep going higher, ,the rebound in 2009 proof ounce sales shows the demand is there for this series.
Platinum is still a risky long-term investment based on auto demand, not sure I would want to own the high mintage plats. Short-term the outlook is great, who knows long-term.
The spouse coins are a jumbled series, low mintage yes, low demand yes. The lowest mintage will do well but what is that mintage is the question. I like the Liberty coins though, after next year that will be a finished set and demand can take over. >>
"low mintage, low demand". Low demand is what creates low sales and mintage on unrestricted coins. The question is will demand increase later. I would like to know what the audited actual mintage numbers is on the Spouse coins. We could see some breath-taking surprises there after seing the changes on the Eagle and Buffalo numbers. I will say I sent some back to the mint.
Of course, we see this with foreign issues all the time. Many countries put out coins with mintages in the low thousands or even hundreds. Some very nice coins, too, but they usually languish. It's possible with the First Spouse series that the Mint is moving toward that "so what" status.
<< <i>I agree with Miles. It's just hard to get excited about these spouses. Even if the Mint said the maximum mintage was going to be lowered to 500 each from now on, I'd still think seriously before getting one. Doesn't mean they won't go up. Just means the designs are less than inspiring.
I guess I am just different but I like a lot of the designs. I think what killed them was putting old "hags" in bonnets on the first coins. I saw a younger portrait of Abigale Adams on tv last night and even though she was a bit plain, a younger portrait would have been more asthetically pleasing. Kind of like the early young Elvis verses the drugged-out ,fat ,old Elvis. I think the Julia Tyler coin with her dancing is fantastic. Where else have you seen that?
One other thing. If the buffalos are so inspiring to everyone then why were collector sales so low? Don't get me wrong, I like the buffs but original sales were not that good.
p.s. I am not implying that Abigale was drugged out.
<< <i>I agree with Miles. It's just hard to get excited about these spouses. Even if the Mint said the maximum mintage was going to be lowered to 500 each from now on, I'd still think seriously before getting one. Doesn't mean they won't go up. Just means the designs are less than inspiring.
Of course, we see this with foreign issues all the time. Many countries put out coins with mintages in the low thousands or even hundreds. Some very nice coins, too, but they usually languish. It's possible with the First Spouse series that the Mint is moving toward that "so what" status. >>
To find the truth to this statement you need look no farther then the Royal Mint in the UK. Many Gold Britannias have mintage in the 4-500s but sell for very little over melt here in the United States. The prices are higher in the UK which makes it harder for us to purchase as most coins are held there.
<< <i>I would like to know what the coin collector base is in Europe compared to the United States. I don't think Europeans are as collector crazy as Americans but that is just my feeling- I could be totally wrong. Also, I think Americans interest in European coins is very very small. >>
I'd be curious about this too--not to mention in Asia. Do Asians collect mostly Asian coins? Do Europeans collect mostly European coins? I have no idea!
i think you need to look at your data again, if your talking just about 2008, there were 2 factors that you need to think about.
1. the price of gold.
2. they were pulled before most people could get them.
i tried to get an proof set, but could not from the mint.i went with the uncir, set . and than had to piece a proof set later, before everything went nuts....and i thought i over paid than.
<< <i>"One other thing. If the buffalos are so inspiring to everyone then why were collector sales so low? Don't get me wrong, I like the buffs but original sales were not that good."
i think you need to look at your data again, if your talking just about 2008, there were 2 factors that you need to think about.
1. the price of gold.
2. they were pulled before most people could get them.
i tried to get an proof set, but could not from the mint.i went with the uncir, set . and than had to piece a proof set later, before everything went nuts....and i thought i over paid than. >>
Well if it was the price of gold then that might apply to the Spouse coins also. They also have a pretty hefty premium over the melt value. Now on the availability of the Buffs it seemed to me that they had a decent period before they were sold out. I mean it wasn't like the Reverse Proof Eagles that sold out in a day or so. If I recall right it seems the mint even put the 1/10 oz unc. on sale for a short while for near $100. I wish I jumped on that offer.
Can you elaborate on what you think for 2010?
Also, what do you think about the liberty spouses?
<< <i>
<< <i>"One other thing. If the buffalos are so inspiring to everyone then why were collector sales so low? Don't get me wrong, I like the buffs but original sales were not that good."
i think you need to look at your data again, if your talking just about 2008, there were 2 factors that you need to think about.
1. the price of gold.
2. they were pulled before most people could get them.
i tried to get an proof set, but could not from the mint.i went with the uncir, set . and than had to piece a proof set later, before everything went nuts....and i thought i over paid than. >>
Well if it was the price of gold then that might apply to the Spouse coins also. They also have a pretty hefty premium over the melt value. Now on the availability of the Buffs it seemed to me that they had a decent period before they were sold out. I mean it wasn't like the Reverse Proof Eagles that sold out in a day or so. If I recall right it seems the mint even put the 1/10 oz unc. on sale for a short while for near $100. I wish I jumped on that offer. >>
yeah your not kidding..... but just look at 2009, the uncir sold out at 200,000 , and thats all the mint made. the proof will out sell 2007 but i don't think 2006.here's a link at the mintages linky
i like the idea of a sub liberty set, but i see the spouse coins going nowhere.
<< <i>It is obvious to me why the Buffs have taken off while the Spouses haven't!
APPEAL. Eye appeal. Intrinsic appeal. Artistic appeal.
While the Buff design is stunning,; the Spouse is bland, boring, with typically VERY unappealing reverses, regardless of mintage.
Collecting need not be complicated. Appeal need not be complex.
I bought Spouses and Buffalos. One excited me and the other didn't. One continues to excite/interest me along with many other collectors!
Miles >>
I think it depends on your time frame. In the long run I think the dynamics of low mintage and growing collector base will drive these up in value. All it takes is a catylist and these can catch on fire. For now I just hope collector interest remains low. That is how rarities are created. I am thinking that when the low mintages hit the Red book for a few years there will be an increased interest in them. I may be wrong but I think a large portion of collectors have no idea how low the mintages are.
<< <i>Eric,
Can you elaborate on what you think for 2010?
Also, what do you think about the liberty spouses? >>
Also Eric, do you know if the mint will or has released audited mintages on the Spouse Coins like they did with the other collector bullion coins?
<< <i>pcgs,ngc,first strike,early release what happened to the coin. i hope thats where the value is. >>
I just can't believe what is being paid for the FS label. Do these folks really think that the label will retain such value over time? Just makes no sense to me at all. Nice to be the sellers!!!!!
<< <i>I think 2010 will be a very special year for SF gold and that looks will be almost as important as mintages. >>
What is SF gold?
snman
<< <i>
<< <i>I agree with Miles. It's just hard to get excited about these spouses. Even if the Mint said the maximum mintage was going to be lowered to 500 each from now on, I'd still think seriously before getting one. Doesn't mean they won't go up. Just means the designs are less than inspiring.
Of course, we see this with foreign issues all the time. Many countries put out coins with mintages in the low thousands or even hundreds. Some very nice coins, too, but they usually languish. It's possible with the First Spouse series that the Mint is moving toward that "so what" status. >>
To find the truth to this statement you need look no farther then the Royal Mint in the UK. Many Gold Britannias have mintage in the 4-500s but sell for very little over melt here in the United States. The prices are higher in the UK which makes it harder for us to purchase as most coins are held there. >>
And the Royal Canadian Mint is even closer....
I will say that I collect some Aussy., Perth Mint and Canadian Moderns. Some have been incredible with huge flipping opportunities. The Aussy. Red Back Spider and the Treasures of Australia Sapphires issue come to mind amongst several others...
In addition to flipping, there are some great issues out there...
<< <i>
<< <i>I think 2010 will be a very special year for SF gold and that looks will be almost as important as mintages. >>
What is SF gold?
snman >>
I think that he meant FS (First Spouse) gold.
In response to that availability of the Buffs., when we all went on a feeding frenzy and backed up the truck on Nov. 13 it was all there for the taking....what a glorious day that was!!!! I don't remember how long they remained on sale.
I was one of those who was backordered on the Plat proof sets and received them months later.
The trick is just being low mintage may not be good enough because the series as horrible cohesion problems and each coin is going to stand or fall on its own combination of rarity and looks. A seriously ugly old hag thats lowest mintage by say 5% may languish endlessly while a 3,900 mintage good looking coin or more importantly key date to the 4 coin liberty set takes off and runs.
Guys the fractional mint marked gold holding incredibly tight bottlenecks in massive multi million coin populations are gone, the amazingly popular buffs worth having are gone, the fractional plats with their awesome sub 5,000 mintages that have good series cohesion and consistently good designs came and went. There is nothing left for the foreseeable future but the first hags because Congress will not let the mint scrap them. Some are non key dogs and will be melt for ever until the day comes that so many have been sold for scrap and melted into bars that they become dark horses keys. But you can count on it.......... good looking US gold in the 3-4k mintage range will produce some serious winners and there are precious few other places to look (unless you want to chase never to be great 10k mintage $100 plats and 50,000 mintage gold $50 buffs).
It is my view that the 4-coin liberty set will be a serious collector item over time. The only question in this regard is will the Buchanan or the Vanburen rule the set and by extension be the greatest of the first hags? If Christmas comes early the Buchanan will be struck to anticipated demand and come in 3,xxx in a sell out when it’s too late to strike more. Then we will be back off the races. The flippers that pulled down 20,000 ugly old women in 48 hours will start looking at them again and as usual the opportunity will vanish and a bottom may be formed.
Yes I will be watching the first hags very closely this year. I think those that want a Buchanan should buy what they need for their set when they go on sale and not play chicken with the Mint and the sales report. Vanburren and Buchanan as a pair will have their day. Some other issues may too but they are harder to forecast this far out.
Good night,
Eric Jordan
PS: There you guys go getting me into another long rant! :-)
I don't think that sell outs will occur on the Spouse coins until they have been out one year or they hit 20k. That seems to be the pattern.
Also, why does the Spouse series have "cohesion problems"? I don't get that. They are all female wives of Presidents with maybe the exception of Hillary.
The 1986 Statue of Liberty uncirculated $5 gold, with a mintage of about 95,000, traded as high as $700 (or $1400 in today's dollars) during the year following its release.
Today an uncirculated $10 Van Buren Liberty (mintage 4334), containing twice as much gold, can be acquired at around 60 percent of that inflation-adjusted price.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I don't think that sell outs will occur on the Spouse coins until they have been out one year or they hit 20k. That seems to be the pattern.
Answer: Remember the first spouse issue last year that sold out? They did not sell many but again they were struck to anticipated demand.
Also, why does the Spouse series have "cohesion problems"? I don't get that. They are all female wives of Presidents with maybe the exception of Hillary.
Answer: Like commems they do not have a consistent obverse or reverse design to promote cohesion. Making that point in detail over many years of data is too long a point to try to address in this format. Its covered in KPs text.
Eric
For 1885 they could strike the Indian Head Liberty design in gold and give us a winner of a coin.
The Jackson is already quite scarce and Jackson is a much more important and recognized popular figure than VB.
<< <i>I don't think that sell outs will occur on the Spouse coins until they have been out one year or they hit 20k. That seems to be the pattern.
Answer: Remember the first spouse issue last year that sold out? They did not sell many but again they were struck to anticipated demand.
I think they were struck to ACTUAL demand by small batch production. Look at the Spouse coins last year and I think you will find that each issue was "sold out" shortly after 1 year of being put on sale from the Mint. I think it is more a schedule limitation versus a supply from my observations.
Now I'll speculate and flip with the best of them but I'd rather have a safe deposit box full of APE and Buffalos rather than a similar $$$ investment in FSs.
I'm sure I'll miss a few good deals but I expect in the end the demand for the APEs and Buffalos will remain greater than demand for FSs and market will be more liquid.
That's right. You know, hot chicks like Eleanor Rosevelt. Wow.
True for the Van Buren but not for the Jackson, if I remember correctly. The Jackson sold out *before* the customary date when a new First Spouse was put on sale and an old one was removed from sale. The Van Buren was available all the way up to the date that the Margaret Taylor FS was introduced.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>>> I think they were struck to ACTUAL demand by small batch production. Look at the Spouse coins last year and I think you will find that each issue was "sold out" shortly after 1 year of being put on sale from the Mint. I think it is more a schedule limitation versus a supply from my observations. <<
True for the Van Buren but not for the Jackson, if I remember correctly. The Jackson sold out *before* the customary date when a new First Spouse was put on sale and an old one was removed from sale. The Van Buren was available all the way up to the date that the Margaret Taylor FS was introduced. >>
I don't think there is a way to review the sell-out dates from the mint but to my recollection it seemed that Jackson was near the 1 year mark. Look a Anna Harrison. She went on sale March 5. I will bet she goes black shortly after that date this year. If not then I will have to find a chocolate hat to eat.
<< <i>True for the Van Buren but not for the Jackson, if I remember correctly. The Jackson sold out *before* the customary date when a new First Spouse was put on sale and an old one was removed from sale. The Van Buren was available all the way up to the date that the Margaret Taylor FS was introduced. >>
You do remember correctly. The Jackson sellout surprised a few people. It was close to the "scheduled" date, but definitely before. I think the MS went first, then the proof followed a few days later (or vice-versa). They definitely struck it to anticipated demand, but when the supplies ran out, that was it.
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
If the Jackson had sold out of available stock a month early they might have struck more but with two weeks and the UNC still available they probably said forget it.
But we will see with the Buchanan and Mary Lincoln how many they strike as I think the TV guys will push Mary Lincoln and sales will be higher.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Anyone care to wager a guess on if the recent price drop in the shiny metals is simply a correction...or something more?
Is it a buying opportunity (back up the truck) or time to cut and run (dump the truck)?
And of course we're talking about coins here...so we don't have to go to the PM forum!
<< <i>Anyone care to wager a guess on if the recent price drop in the shiny metals is simply a correction...or something more?
Is it a buying opportunity (back up the truck) or time to cut and run (dump the truck)?
And of course we're talking about coins here...so we don't have to go to the PM forum! >>
My guess is that this correction (in coins
I tend to agree...how exactly does the Greek/Portuguese economies imploding and bringing the Euro down...essentially help the outlook for the US economy? Other than an initial knee-jerk (Euro down/Dollar up) reaction, I'm not seeing how gold becomes any less useful in a potentially inflationary future environment?
If that is the main criterion,
Buy! Buy! Buy!
I knew it would happen.
Who knows what the mint's intentions are for this game they play ? Since it's not in commerce, I'm left to conjecture.
I hope to buy these for ten bucks soon.
HE>I
While we here know their rarity and difference from the proof and regular bullion coins that knowledge is not universal.
It may take a few years until they are appreciated..........
<< <i><My guess is that this correction (in coins ) is temporary. I mean, have the fundamentals for paper money and the world economy improved? Not that I can see. So much of it is psychology, though, that it seems that things could always go up or down. >
I tend to agree...how exactly does the Greek/Portuguese economies imploding and bringing the Euro down...essentially help the outlook for the US economy? Other than an initial knee-jerk (Euro down/Dollar up) reaction, I'm not seeing how gold becomes any less useful in a potentially inflationary future environment? >>
I'm surprised the dollar is pulling that much flight to ""safety"" money instead of something else.... even gold.
edited to put quotes around "safety"
<< <i>For now the 2006-2008 W uncirculated APEs are in numismatic limbo.
While we here know their rarity and difference from the proof and regular bullion coins that knowledge is not universal.
It may take a few years until they are appreciated.......... >>
But will they be appreciated?....