Platinum down $50 from introduction of 2009-W APE.
We'll just have to see if this is a one day blip or start of something bigger.............. >>
who's cancelling their 09 plat proof ordesrs hoping for a price decline?
they moved fast taking the cancel boxes away on the Sarah Polk first spouses. If I Recall Correctly the cancel boxes were gone by maybe the tuesday following the sales date of thursday (5 days).
I've ordered but will consider cancellation over the weekend.
<< <i>You can still cancel a Mint order by simply calling if the cancel box box is gone and it hasn't shipped. I have done it in the past. >>
I've tried and the PBGS people I've dealt with, on different orders, have all said they couldn't do it. (although, they probably can and reserve it for the insanely angry customers)
<< <i>You can still cancel a Mint order by simply calling if the cancel box box is gone and it hasn't shipped. I have done it in the past. >>
I've tried and the PBGS people I've dealt with, on different orders, have all said they couldn't do it. (although, they probably can and reserve it for the insanely angry customers) >>
No, I did it recently with the Lincoln Penny rolls with PGBS in Indiana. A very pleasant young lady (I think) cancelled it without argument simply by asking.
<< <i>I'm still not going to buy it. Can't believe that many people bought it. >>
Me either. My checking account balance makes it an easy decision. I, too, am surprised the sales are so brisk. I guess folks don't have that many options this year.
If platinum sinks any lower over the next 2 days, it may get very interesting on the number of cancellations. I have been asked by a handful of folks already if they should cancel their orders.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Backdated $100 plats graded Proof 69 are going for about the same price as the Mint is charging for the 2009 proofs raw. Backdated coins graded Proof 70 are going for at least a few hundred more.
So there is little perceived downside risk in buying from the Mint at current prices. The theory is that flippers can likely get all or most of their money back selling raw or 69, and a profit for those that grade 70. It will be interesting to see if practice matches theory down the road.
This is a small preview of what could happen if the Mint resumes sales of proof gold and silver eagles next year.
The mint was probably reading these message boards and thought nobody would buy it so only did 8000. They must be pulling their hair out right about now.
First it may take a lot more than a $50-$100 drop in spot price of Platinum to justify many returns. Simply a question of cost of return vs saving on new purchase.
While some may return because of suspected >4,500 mintage this will likely not be enough returns to bring final mintage below 4,500.
IMO a full sellout would actually be a good thing for APE collectors as a whole.
Like many I have questioned just how many APE collectors there are out there and a sellout of 8,000 would be a good sign and a definate positive for pricing of prior years.
Lastly we may be seeing in the spot markets a disconnect between gold and platinum.
Recent hints of an ecconomic recovery have been a relative negative for gold(less flight to safety) while same data has been a relative positive for platinum(increased auto and industrial use of platinum).
Sorry if this has been discussed already but given the 5/household limit, are any of the modern coin sellers offering a premium to people to order the plat proofs for them? Thanks.
<< <i>Sorry if this has been discussed already but given the 5/household limit, are any of the modern coin sellers offering a premium to people to order the plat proofs for them? Thanks. >>
MCM was offering to buy on the BST, but that ship has already sailed.
You must collect the Baby American Platinum Eagle proofs. Buy them all, but concentrate on those with a lower population* than the median (2006-W). The $10 proof 2008-W is the percentage KING of all plats (~28% fewer than the 2004). *The Great Platinum Melt of 2008 left surviving populations which are likely much lower than sales numbers. The mint sold 164,481 for twelve years of $10 plats, 1,387 graded PCGS PR70 (less than 1 percent), and 128 of those were First Strikes (as of 11/25/2009).
I agree there is a compelling reason to buy fractional APEs.
That said I will point out that while it is factly correct to say that ".........the mint sold 164,481 for twelve years of $10 plats, 1,387 graded PCGS PR70 (less than 1 percent), and 128 of those were First Strikes (as of 11/25/2009)." it is none the less misleading as only a small percentage of those 164K were submitted for grading.
It is more accurate of actual population to see what % of those submitted to PCGS grade 70 and then use that as a rough guide for an estimate of how the whole population of 164K would grade or if you prefer how individual years would grade.
One comment on the great meltdown of 2008.............on a percentage basis I believe those most vunerable were the bullion coins. Of those that were graded the most vunerable were obviously the lower graded coins which perversely means that the meltdown reduced total surviving populations but likely had limited impact on surviving populations of 70 graded coins............either MS or PR.
As far as years most vunerable to population loss I would guess that 2007 may be a year to watch. In the proof series of 2007 there were lots of $50 1/2 coins due to the 2 coin anniversary set. Also the appox. 50% short term gain these 2007 coins offered by early 2008 was particularly tempting as it was known by early 2008 that 2007 was not a key mintage year for either 2007-W MSs or PRs.
In the 3 year changing reverse MS coins I think the SURVIVING populations may be closer than suggested by published mintages due to a relatively higher % loss of 2007s vs 2006s and likely no loss of 2008s.
I'd also say the 2001 and 2002 proof fractionals could be real sleepers. They've never carried a premium and so may have been melted in larger numbers. They also seem to come up for sale very rarely. With platinum again rising, more could meet the melting pot.
<< <i>It is more accurate of actual population to see what % of those submitted to PCGS grade 70 and then use that as a rough guide for an estimate of how the whole population of 164K would grade or if you prefer how individual years would grade. >>
However...it could be reasonably assumed that the coins sent to PCGS were screened, and that only those with a reasonable shot at 70 were submitted. Of the remaining coins that would be deemed "gradable" at PCGS, I'm betting that a very small percentage would likely be PR70DC. With 37,000 coins to draw from, and a hefty price tag as incentive, the PR70 total for the 1997 has increased by less than 30 in the last two years.
One rarely discussed thing about TPG companies is that rarity begets rarity.
If a MS or PR70 has a low published population and a high market price future submissions of those dates will recieve greater scrutiny and overall less perfect grades than same coins from years where there is little price differential.
The 1993 AGE proofs are a case in point.
For a long time there were only a few $25s that graded PR70 and they commanded a very high 10K+ premium. You can be sure that any 1993 $25 gold proofs recieve a lot more attention before scoring PR70 that say similar 1991s or 1996s.................
<< <i>You must collect the Baby American Platinum Eagle proofs. Buy them all, but concentrate on those with a lower population* than the median (2006-W). The $10 proof 2008-W is the percentage KING of all plats (~28% fewer than the 2004). *The Great Platinum Melt of 2008 left surviving populations which are likely much lower than sales numbers. The mint sold 164,481 for twelve years of $10 plats, 1,387 graded PCGS PR70 (less than 1 percent), and 128 of those were First Strikes (as of 11/25/2009).
Edited Disclaimer: I'm not selling, nor do I plan to sell. >>
Out of curiosity I looked up the NGC numbers and added them with your numbers. This seems to indicate that an overwhelming majority are keeping their plats raw. Quite surprising revelation to me
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
<< <i>An NGC PR70 ER Gold Buff set sold on ebay (auction listing) for $8K today. I am speechless. How high will the buffs go??? >>
With 2013 being the 100th anniversary of the Buff 5c, and considering the popularity of the 5c, $1, and buff gold, won't the Mint come out with a host of buff products?
<< <i>An NGC PR70 ER Gold Buff set sold on ebay (auction listing) for $8K today. I am speechless. How high will the buffs go??? >>
With 2013 being the 100th anniversary of the Buff 5c, and considering the popularity of the 5c, $1, and buff gold, won't the Mint come out with a host of buff products? >>
<< With 2013 being the 100th anniversary of the Buff 5c, and considering the popularity of the 5c, $1, and buff gold, won't the Mint come out with a host of buff products? >>
Comments
<< <i>DONT BID ON THE OPEN MARKET AGAINST ONE ANOTHER GO BUY THEM FROM RM TRADING AT p# 800-850-4143 >>
Searching for "RM Trading" via Google provided a link to ebay! Is this correct? Once there, searching for "800-850-4143" found zero result.
What is RM Trading? Am I at the correct site? Please provide a link. Thanks!
<< <i>Ouch!
Platinum down $50 from introduction of 2009-W APE.
We'll just have to see if this is a one day blip or start of something bigger.............. >>
who's cancelling their 09 plat proof ordesrs hoping for a price decline?
they moved fast taking the cancel boxes away on the Sarah Polk first spouses. If I Recall Correctly the cancel boxes were gone by maybe the tuesday following the sales date of thursday (5 days).
I've ordered but will consider cancellation over the weekend.
<< <i>You can still cancel a Mint order by simply calling if the cancel box box is gone and it hasn't shipped. I have done it in the past. >>
I've tried and the PBGS people I've dealt with, on different orders, have all said they couldn't do it.
(although, they probably can and reserve it for the insanely angry customers)
<< <i>
<< <i>You can still cancel a Mint order by simply calling if the cancel box box is gone and it hasn't shipped. I have done it in the past. >>
I've tried and the PBGS people I've dealt with, on different orders, have all said they couldn't do it.
(although, they probably can and reserve it for the insanely angry customers) >>
No, I did it recently with the Lincoln Penny rolls with PGBS in Indiana. A very pleasant young lady (I think) cancelled it without argument simply by asking.
<< <i>PS They blew the doors off on the 2009 bullion gold eagle fractional mintages. >>
These seem to be drying up fast. Dealers can't find them. These maybe short term winners.
Yesterday on the 'bay two 2008 W Buffalo 4-coin sets sold for 5,600 (unc) and 5,660 (proof).
That is all.
R95
Amazing, considering that 2008 is by far the most common date for the Buffalo fractionals!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Hope you guys saved some of your backdates..........
About all we have to look at now are the first spouse coins going forward as direct Mint purchases.
Eric
<< <i>I'm still not going to buy it. Can't believe that many people bought it. >>
Me either. My checking account balance makes it an easy decision. I, too, am surprised the sales are so brisk. I guess folks don't have that many options this year.
<< <i>$100 More perfect union proof plat sales after 5 days 7200 coins sold out of the 8,000 max.
Hope you guys saved some of your backdates..........
About all we have to look at now are the first spouse coins going forward as direct Mint purchases.
Eric >>
Wow, 7200! Who's buying these. There aren't anywhere near that many plat collectors.
Well, it's not me. Last year, I bought 10.75 oz. of collector Plats from the Mint, and this year's Plat purchases so far total zero.
I did however buy a John Deere snowblower this morning. I'm sure that I'll get more satisfaction from it anyways!
I knew it would happen.
Wondercoin
So there is little perceived downside risk in buying from the Mint at current prices. The theory is that flippers can likely get all or most of their money back selling raw or 69, and a profit for those that grade 70. It will be interesting to see if practice matches theory down the road.
This is a small preview of what could happen if the Mint resumes sales of proof gold and silver eagles next year.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Proof buffalo is 40,230
Van Buren Liberty finished at 4334 UNC 7515 Proof
First it may take a lot more than a $50-$100 drop in spot price of Platinum to justify many returns.
Simply a question of cost of return vs saving on new purchase.
While some may return because of suspected >4,500 mintage this will likely not be enough returns to bring final mintage below 4,500.
IMO a full sellout would actually be a good thing for APE collectors as a whole.
Like many I have questioned just how many APE collectors there are out there and a sellout of 8,000 would be a good sign and a definate positive for pricing of prior years.
Lastly we may be seeing in the spot markets a disconnect between gold and platinum.
Recent hints of an ecconomic recovery have been a relative negative for gold(less flight to safety) while same data has been a relative positive for platinum(increased auto and industrial use of platinum).
<< <i>Van Buren Liberty finished at 4334 UNC 7515 Proof >>
Winner! Lower than Jackson!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
It just doesn't make sense.
These are expensive.
Are there really that many deep-pocketed plat collector/flippers out there?
I think this is a faster sell than the 2007 10th Anniv. $50 RP plat(?)
My order for the 09 Plat Proof Eagle shows a 12/22/2009 delivery date. The US Mint website shows a 12/23/2009 when ordering the coin.
Not trying to fan any hysteria on this coin.
<< <i>
<< <i>Van Buren Liberty finished at 4334 UNC 7515 Proof >>
Winner! Lower than Jackson!
Sweeeet! I also think that it is an even better looking coin than the Jackson (and I have both, not trying to "promote" one).
Large draw on these by several large dealers......it aint for retail customers....
<< <i>Sorry if this has been discussed already but given the 5/household limit, are any of the modern coin sellers offering a premium to people to order the plat proofs for them? Thanks. >>
MCM was offering to buy on the BST, but that ship has already sailed.
<Large draw on these by several large dealers......it aint for retail customers.... >
So what say you 7over8...is it worth buying one or two of the 2009 plat proof? You seem to have a good feel for these things.
Regards.
9754 1997-W $10 PR70DC 50 0 36,993 (+26,788)
99765 1998-W $10 PR70DC 39 0 19,847 (+9,642)
99773 1999-W $10 PR70DC 81 0 19,133 (+8,928)
99779 2000-W $10 PR70DC 141 0 15,651 (+5,446)
99786 2001-W $10 PR70DC 75 0 12,174 (+1,969)
99794 2002-W $10 PR70DC 79 0 12,365 (+2,160)
921100 2003-W $10 PR70DC 89 0 9,534 (-671)
921104 2004-W $10 PR70DC 92 0 7,161 (-3,044)
921108 2005-W $10 PR70DC 55 0 8,104 (-2,101)
921112 2006-W $10 PR70DC 37* 0 10,205 (Median)
149574 2007-W $10 PR70DC 56* 0 8,176 (-2,029)
393087 2008-W $10 PR70DC 35* 0 5,138 (-5,067)
*-1st Strike
Edited Disclaimer: I'm not selling, nor do I plan to sell.
That said I will point out that while it is factly correct to say that ".........the mint sold 164,481 for twelve years of $10 plats, 1,387 graded PCGS PR70 (less than 1 percent), and 128 of those were First Strikes (as of 11/25/2009)." it is none the less misleading as only a small percentage of those 164K were submitted for grading.
It is more accurate of actual population to see what % of those submitted to PCGS grade 70 and then use that as a rough guide for an estimate of how the whole population of 164K would grade or if you prefer how individual years would grade.
One comment on the great meltdown of 2008.............on a percentage basis I believe those most vunerable were the bullion coins.
Of those that were graded the most vunerable were obviously the lower graded coins which perversely means that the meltdown reduced total surviving populations but likely had limited impact on surviving populations of 70 graded coins............either MS or PR.
As far as years most vunerable to population loss I would guess that 2007 may be a year to watch.
In the proof series of 2007 there were lots of $50 1/2 coins due to the 2 coin anniversary set.
Also the appox. 50% short term gain these 2007 coins offered by early 2008 was particularly tempting as it was known by early 2008 that 2007 was not a key mintage year for either 2007-W MSs or PRs.
In the 3 year changing reverse MS coins I think the SURVIVING populations may be closer than suggested by published mintages due to a relatively higher % loss of 2007s vs 2006s and likely no loss of 2008s.
<< <i>It is more accurate of actual population to see what % of those submitted to PCGS grade 70 and then use that as a rough guide for an estimate of how the whole population of 164K would grade or if you prefer how individual years would grade. >>
However...it could be reasonably assumed that the coins sent to PCGS were screened, and that only those with a reasonable shot at 70 were submitted. Of the remaining coins that would be deemed "gradable" at PCGS, I'm betting that a very small percentage would likely be PR70DC. With 37,000 coins to draw from, and a hefty price tag as incentive, the PR70 total for the 1997 has increased by less than 30 in the last two years.
If a MS or PR70 has a low published population and a high market price future submissions of those dates will recieve greater scrutiny and overall less perfect grades than same coins from years where there is little price differential.
The 1993 AGE proofs are a case in point.
For a long time there were only a few $25s that graded PR70 and they commanded a very high 10K+ premium.
You can be sure that any 1993 $25 gold proofs recieve a lot more attention before scoring PR70 that say similar 1991s or 1996s.................
<< <i>You must collect the Baby American Platinum Eagle proofs. Buy them all, but concentrate on those with a lower population* than the median (2006-W). The $10 proof 2008-W is the percentage KING of all plats (~28% fewer than the 2004). *The Great Platinum Melt of 2008 left surviving populations which are likely much lower than sales numbers. The mint sold 164,481 for twelve years of $10 plats, 1,387 graded PCGS PR70 (less than 1 percent), and 128 of those were First Strikes (as of 11/25/2009).
NGC TOTAL GRADED p70 early release
9754 1997-W $10 PR70DC 50 0 36,993 (+26,788) 1046 387
99765 1998-W $10 PR70DC 39 0 19,847 (+9,642) 905 309
99773 1999-W $10 PR70DC 81 0 19,133 (+8,928) 804 449
99779 2000-W $10 PR70DC 141 0 15,651 (+5,446) 679 482
99786 2001-W $10 PR70DC 75 0 12,174 (+1,969) 589 368
99794 2002-W $10 PR70DC 79 0 12,365 (+2,160) 622 409
921100 2003-W $10 PR70DC 89 0 9,534 (-671) 454 294
921104 2004-W $10 PR70DC 92 0 7,161 (-3,044) 363 262
921108 2005-W $10 PR70DC 55 0 8,104 (-2,101) 639 392
921112 2006-W $10 PR70DC 37* 0 10,205 (Median) 1846 1196 105 80
149574 2007-W $10 PR70DC 56* 0 8,176 (-2,029) 428 343 877 555
393087 2008-W $10 PR70DC 35* 0 5,138 (-5,067) 510 436 207 172
*-1st Strike
Edited Disclaimer: I'm not selling, nor do I plan to sell. >>
Out of curiosity I looked up the NGC numbers and added them with your numbers. This seems to indicate that an overwhelming majority are keeping their plats raw. Quite surprising revelation to me
I like OGP for just about everything that I have.....
Even the highest mintage year 1997 has a total under 37k..... quite a low low number if you really think about it.....
<< <i>An NGC PR70 ER Gold Buff set sold on ebay (auction listing) for $8K today. I am speechless. How high will the buffs go??? >>
With 2013 being the 100th anniversary of the Buff 5c, and considering the popularity of the 5c, $1, and buff gold, won't the Mint come out with a host of buff products?
09 Platinum Proof 1 oz sold out - on waiting list
<< <i>2009 Platinum Proof sold out and now on waiting list
09 Platinum Proof 1 oz sold out - on waiting list >>
Have any of you received your 09 Plats yet??
I imagine there were significant cancellations on this unit with the dropping price of Plainum over the last week so it may not be too late!
Miles
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
<< <i>
<< <i>An NGC PR70 ER Gold Buff set sold on ebay (auction listing) for $8K today. I am speechless. How high will the buffs go??? >>
With 2013 being the 100th anniversary of the Buff 5c, and considering the popularity of the 5c, $1, and buff gold, won't the Mint come out with a host of buff products? >>
Great question. Any thoughts on this?
<< With 2013 being the 100th anniversary of the Buff 5c, and considering the popularity of the 5c, $1, and buff gold, won't the Mint come out with a host of buff products? >>
According to my Mayan calendar, no.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Ok...as of 1:00 PM EST...I just successfuly ordered a single plat proof...and no mention of a waiting list.
So if it sells out now...great..and if not and plat plunges...it'll go back for a refund.
If plat drops, it'll be really funny when 4,000 of the 8,000 get returned and THEN GET MELTED!