<< <i>Do you not get them slabbed even if you know you have 70s? I have several 2008s like that. No visible flaws when viewed through a 10x loupe. They're still in OGP, but I'm tempted to send them in. >>
That is correct. In fact, I'd guess at least half of my proofs are 70s and bet that's true for most other OGP fans here, too. Of course, those playing the slab game can make a lot of money, so we miss out on that in the short run. As a collector, though, nothing beats seeing these coins in their original cases. The Mint did a really nice job with the proofs--without going nuts as in the buffs and UHR.
<< <i>Do you not get them slabbed even if you know you have 70s? I have several 2008s like that. No visible flaws when viewed through a 10x loupe. They're still in OGP, but I'm tempted to send them in. >>
That is correct. In fact, I'd guess at least half of my proofs are 70s and bet that's true for most other OGP fans here, too. Of course, those playing the slab game can make a lot of money, so we miss out on that in the short run. As a collector, though, nothing beats seeing these coins in their original cases. The Mint did a really nice job with the proofs--without going nuts as in the buffs and UHR.
And Whoo-Hoo--5000 posts! >>
Glad that this thread has some life in it again!
Grits-
Why not do as Longshot says and slab them now leaving open the option to break them out and put them back in the OGP later if these predictions come true?
Interesting that the 95W $1 ASE Proof brings more slabbed in 69 than in OGP (which I strongly prefer), not to mention 70 which brings moon money.
Sure wish I had bought more! I remember at the Balto show when the Mint had the UHR exibit the stacks of Buff sets for the buying at their booth. Shoulda, coulda, woulda....
$5500 for an NGC PF70 2008 Plat proof set on 6/3. Just keeps going up.
Of course, I sold an identical set in Dec. for $3600 :-(
Raufus, I notice that NGC seems to have more of the Gold Buffs certified as 70s than PCGS. Do you know if PCGS is tougher on these, and why else would NGC be getting the bulk of the submittals?
Is there a big spread between the NGC 70's and the PCGS 70's?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>$5500 for an NGC PF70 2008 Plat proof set on 6/3. Just keeps going up.
Of course, I sold an identical set in Dec. for $3600 :-(
Raufus, I notice that NGC seems to have more of the Gold Buffs certified as 70s than PCGS. Do you know if PCGS is tougher on these, and why else would NGC be getting the bulk of the submittals?
Is there a big spread between the NGC 70's and the PCGS 70's? >>
jmski52-
I think but am not sure (don't have the NGC vs. PCGS pops) that NCG was easier. While by no means a significant sample, 18 of the 20 various whole and fractional buff proofs which I submitted to NCG came back 70.
I have not observed a huge spread in prices for PCGS vs. NGC 70s with the exception on PCGS FS coins which seem to consistantly bring a 20% + premium. Again, these are just my observations and are not supported by a detailed analysis.
I'm thinking not just because if you go to the Mint's product pages for the gold buffaloes, gold eagles and silver eagles, the Mint states that these will be offered once they have a sufficient inventory of blanks. But the platinum eagle page is completely empty.
Plus they don't even mention them on the Product Schedule page.
The buffalo coins are an amazing set, even the regular high mintage bullion coins are selling for premiums. They are my favorite modern set next to the plat proofs.
Seems that the Buff and Plat sets have dropped about 20% lately. What's up with that? Summer slow down? Any thoughts? >>
I can't speak to the APEs but that $5000 for a raw Buffalo set was a clear fluke. Raw sets crossed $4,000 around 3-4 weeks ago when gold was over $950. They seem to be holding north of $4,000. Generally in $4,000-$4,300 range. They don't seem to have backed down with spot gold and they now clearly trade as a numismatic rather than bullion item.
There are surprisingly few raw sets for sale. For last several months generally only 1-3 raw sets are all that can be found on Ebay..............none in stores.
Ah, it's always a good day when this thread pops up on the forum. Thanks for ttting 2M2F. Not much other action these days with the plats caught in the "Too High, Too Low" paradigm, and precious little interest in burnished gold W eagles and such. Be very interesting how far these buffs stampede across the numismatic world!
I think the Platinums and Uncirculated AGEs will do well just may take a little longer than the Buffalos.
IF and I stress IF we get inflation and a spike in PM prices in 1-2 years then you may see a bubble in all the American Eagle prices. >>
I agree--TONS of winners, but just not quite the right time to see them flourish. I'm especially interested in what will happen with the gold AGEs, since they've been flying under the radar. Let's talk in five years!
The 2008 $100 Proof coin is now priced higher than the 2004 in the grey sheet, but the $50 Platinum Proof is still lagging way behind the 2004 $50 Plat Proof.
Well, this is a matter of dispersion. Flippers, etc. have gotten hold of recent issues and therefore relatively more coins are in relatively fewer hands. Thus coins such as the 2004 proof $50 platinum and 1997 Jackie Robinson $5 Unc. are, we believe and IMO much more widely and thinly spread. For the right price you can get nearly as many of the '08s as you need, but that would tend NOT to be the case with the two earlier coins. Therefore the supply side of the equation would push the prices of the earlier coins above the plats, gold W uncs, etc.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Well, this is a matter of dispersion. Flippers, etc. have gotten hold of recent issues and therefore relatively more coins are in relatively fewer hands. Thus coins such as the 2004 proof $50 platinum and 1997 Jackie Robinson $5 Unc. are, we believe and IMO much more widely and thinly spread. For the right price you can get nearly as many of the '08s as you need, but that would tend NOT to be the case with the two earlier coins. Therefore the supply side of the equation would push the prices of the earlier coins above the plats, gold W uncs, etc. >>
Amen. Eventually, this problem may correct itself. Then again, it may not. After all, who knows what happened to all of those '04s? Some may have been unwittingly melted down. Others treated carelessly. The '08 price, though, is only what, a couple of hundred below the '04? That's not bad for a brand new issue. What we need is more people with jobs and more collectors to see these really take off. And more promotion. I've seen only one really exhaustive article on this series since I began seriously collecting it three years ago. Hm...
coins such as the 2004 proof $50 platinum and 1997 Jackie Robinson $5 Unc. are, we believe and IMO much more widely and thinly spread. For the right price you can get nearly as many of the '08s as you need, but that would tend NOT to be the case with the two earlier coins. Therefore the supply side of the equation would push the prices of the earlier coins above the plats, gold W uncs, etc.
I agree, though this also suggests that as the 2008s are gradually dispersed, the prices might rise (assuming sufficient demand exists). The demand-side is really the unknown; it could increase from here once mintages become finalized and if the Mint reduces its product lines.
I continue to have high hopes for the platinum uncirculated w coins, which I view as a discreet 3 coin subset of the platinum series with good designs and low mintages. The platinum proofs are nice, but it's an expensive series to attack going back to 1997. I know that the non-w uncirculated platinum bullion coins have their proponents, but I'm not among them.
What we need is more people with jobs and more collectors to see these really take off. And more promotion. I've seen only one really exhaustive article on this series since I began seriously collecting it three years ago. Hm...
I'm with you, GritsMan. Once 2008 final numbers are released, I think we'll see more articles about these coins, especially the uncirculated (w) coins. The population is small enough that a couple of hundred new collectors would make a difference. I hope the Mint does NOT go forward with the proposed 2009 platinum proof coin design, which I think is awful enough to ensure low mintage. I'd hate to see that design anywhere near the top of the low-pop list for the platinum proof series.
So what's with those numbers anyway? Are there any deadlines by which the Mint has to post the numbers? Once they are out, I'll definitely encourage NN to write about the series.
From the sales it looks like people are skipping the w coins when they can, so that may be why the prices are higher for the proof plats and buffaloes. You can't skip those.
From the sales it looks like people are skipping the w coins when they can, so that may be why the prices are higher for the proof plats and buffaloes. You can't skip those.
I'm not sure that conclusion is supported. Buffalos are more in demand than the platinums generally, the gold coin collector base is much larger than platinums, and the buffalo design has proven to be one of the more popular designs with collectors. I think it's a mistake to make a comparison between demand and pricing for buffalo golds and platinum coins; I don't think there's a reason to believe there's a direct overlap of those markets.
To the extent the 2008 platinum proofs are outperforming the 2008 w uncirc plats, it can be attributed to the fact that the 2008 proof numbers compare favorably to the 2004 plat proofs (established keys in a series that started in 1997), and a high and relatively stable price point existed for the 2004s.
The platinum w uncirculated market is not nearly as established as the proofs and the 2008 w uncirculated mintages don't compare favorably to the 2006 w uncirculateds at this point. The unc-w series/collector base/market, which started in 2006 and is still in its infancy, is not nearly as well-established as the platinum proofs. On top of that the lowest mintage coin for the unc-w coins were the 2006 ws, the 1st year of issue. The pricing for the 2006 ws did not enjoy the stablility we saw with the 2004 proofs. Also, the huge spike in platinum that took place during 2006 to 2008 had a big impact on platinum collectors as a whole, and negatively impacted the expected formation of a collector base.
All of that means that the price behavior for the unc-w coins won't follow the better-established proof series. The proofs enjoyed substantial sales in the initial years, declining sales during the 1999 to 2004 years. The 2004 offering period was cut short because of a change in marketing, which resulted in lower than expected/achievable direct sales and a spike in secondary market demand shortly after. 2004s had largely slipped under the radar of potential flippers, so not many hoards existed. The price spike that the 2004 coins enjoyed was new to the series, which previously were lucky to hold any numismatic premium and were often available for under issue price. Sales improved in 2005-2007, and 2008 was another strange offering year, with initial prices set in the stratosphere because of the spike in bullion, followed by a Mint-created sales hiatus, and then a one month fire sale period. Proof collectors can model their price expectations for the 2008 proofs on the largely stable price structure of the 2004 proof coins.
Conversely, potential uncirculated-w collectors don't have much to go on at this point. The price for the low-mintage 2006-w coins has been erratic. They enjoyed a big spike in price and demand in early 2007 after sales closed, and then the market deflated a bit later in 2007. Then platinum bullion spiked, and the numismatic premium for virtually all platinum coins except for the 2004 proofs and the smaller denomination 2006-w coins was absorbed by the rising tide of platinum spot to $2300+/ounce. This shook the foundation of the platinum collector market, and created a market where all platinums except for key dates and low pop 70 graded coins brought little or no premium over bullion price. Spot then receded to under $800/ounce and has since crept back to the $1200/ounce level.
Uncertainty about platinum spot, and whether platinums have a collector base sufficient to support a premium over melt, have really put a damper on the secondary market, at least for now. Once the spot market stabilizes and mintages are established, I expect a return of a collector base sufficient to support numismatic premiums that better reflect relative scarcity.
... as usual, some excellent points from "NY Council" ....
I still believe that the 2006-W through 2008-W platinum burnished uncirculated coins have great potential (and especially all of the 2006-W uncirculated coins), as well as the 2008-W $50.00 platinum proof coin (the single lowest platinum proof mintage).
>>I continue to have high hopes for the platinum uncirculated w coins, which I view as a discreet 3 coin subset of the platinum series with good designs and low mintages.<<
I agree, and if (when) platinum prices start rising again the 1/10 oz. set has the best prospects IMO. With a maximum possible mintage of 3,544 (the 2006-W mintage) and many tied up in 4-coin sets, I consider this set to be one of the best values in the numismatic market today.
nycounsel I think there is a minor flaw in your theory as you based the success of the buffaloes on the gold factor, well the w gold eagle unc are also gold and have not done as well. From posts I have read, especially from newbie collectors, they seem to purchase on price as opposed the mintmark. So they can skip the w coins which holds down demand [collecting one coin for each year only].
If you want buffaloes though you can't skip 2008 for the fractionals, or you have none.
The proof plats were established at the same time as the bullion plats. From the numbers I see there are more than twice as many bullion plats as proof plats. Many collect the bullion plats, as we see on Ebay. There seems to be many more PCGS graded bullion plats than proof plats as well.
So the evidence seems to point to a different conclusion than you see however time will tell who is correct. So far it appears that people are skipping the w coins if possible as I said, and the prices reflect that.
I agree with you on the 2006 w unc plats, they are the keys but prices did decline as you said. That may also be due to the addition of the 2007 and 2008 w unc coins which lessened the relative rarity of the 2006.
The buffalo fractionals will not get that same scenario, nor will the 2008 proof plats.
You know, I was quite excited about the unc-w plats--even paying through the nose to get a couple. However, I am now thinking they may suffer from being orphaned. I just can't imagine that many people getting excited about a three-year set of these--especially when the proofs look so much better and have the same design. I hope I'm wrong, especially because I have all of them, but I think these could languish for a long time. I'd definitely look to see the proofs doing a lot better, once the proper market conditions return.
And the 2008 buffs? They've just got a great future under almost any scenario!
nycounsel I think there is a minor flaw in your theory as you based the success of the buffaloes on the gold factor, well the w gold eagle unc are also gold and have not done as well. From posts I have read, especially from newbie collectors, they seem to purchase on price as opposed the mintmark. So they can skip the w coins which holds down demand [collecting one coin for each year only].
To be clear, I don't attribute the success of buffalos to the gold bullion, but on the basis that gold coins have a larger and more established collector base. Some collectors, including on this board, turn their nose up on platinum strictly on the basis of the base metal and the fact that platinum isn't among the metals that the Mint historically used for coinage. Imagine if the platinum "w" coins had instead been minted in gold -- they would have enjoyed a much larger base and immediate acceptance of the collecting community.
The reason w gold eagles haven't done as well isn't a reflection of the gold collector base, but the type. Gold w eagles are a non-changing design coin, so even the keys among them suffer because to the extent they are collected by type, there is no reason to gravitate towards the higher priced, low mintage keys. That's one of the reasons I like the platinums-- the changing reverse insures that each year is it's own type coin. Buffalo golds have the best of both worlds -- it's a very short series -- and the design is one of the most popular out there.
>>You know, I was quite excited about the unc-w plats--even paying through the nose to get a couple. However, I am now thinking they may suffer from being orphaned. I just can't imagine that many people getting excited about a three-year set of these--especially when the proofs look so much better and have the same design. I hope I'm wrong, especially because I have all of them, but I think these could languish for a long time. I'd definitely look to see the proofs doing a lot better, once the proper market conditions return.<<
There's an upside to having a short three-year series:
1. It's much less expensive to complete.
2. The uncirculated set is more unified as it encompasses a single theme (the three branches of government), while the proofs span two themes plus several non-themed coins.
3. It's scarcer - the number of possible complete sets is much smaller. A low mintage often creates its own demand.
... and I also think that the uncirculated platinum coins have done quite well.
Consider:
The 2008-W $100.00 burnished platinum uncirculated coins were selling from the mint last fall for $1069.00, and are now realizing roughly $2,000.00 consistantly on e-bay in PMG-70. And that is with platinum at only $1100.00 - $1200.00 per ounce (almost twice melt)!
Not too shabby!
Further, the 2006-W $100 burnished platinum uncirculated is presently selling at roughly $2500.00 in PCGS-70, or over twice melt. And in a severe recession to boot!
Again, very nice, and bodling well for the future!
<< <i>The reason w gold eagles haven't done as well isn't a reflection of the gold collector base, but the type. Gold w eagles are a non-changing design coin, so even the keys among them suffer because to the extent they are collected by type, there is no reason to gravitate towards the higher priced, low mintage keys. >>
That's what I said in my earlier post, they are skipping the w coins when they can.
So I am glad you agree with me finally. Now if you just change the w unc gold to w unc plats it could be the same outcome. The question is if the changing reverse is enough to alter the collectors and I don't think it is yet.
As to what people purchase for a type set, the smarter ones I think try to buy the lowest mintage coin they can afford in the best possible condition. So even the type collectors can help the low mintage coins.
<< <i>I wonder if the buffalo fractionals are still being made into jewelry. That's just CRAZY. I don't know what I would do if I saw an artist abusing one. >>
Well, let's keep hoping that they are! It sure ain't gonna hurt any of us holding these coins!
<< <i>From the sales it looks like people are skipping the w coins when they can, so that may be why the prices are higher for the proof plats and buffaloes. You can't skip those.
I'm not sure that conclusion is supported. Buffalos are more in demand than the platinums generally, the gold coin collector base is much larger than platinums, and the buffalo design has proven to be one of the more popular designs with collectors. I think it's a mistake to make a comparison between demand and pricing for buffalo golds and platinum coins; I don't think there's a reason to believe there's a direct overlap of those markets.
To the extent the 2008 platinum proofs are outperforming the 2008 w uncirc plats, it can be attributed to the fact that the 2008 proof numbers compare favorably to the 2004 plat proofs (established keys in a series that started in 1997), and a high and relatively stable price point existed for the 2004s.
The platinum w uncirculated market is not nearly as established as the proofs and the 2008 w uncirculated mintages don't compare favorably to the 2006 w uncirculateds at this point. The unc-w series/collector base/market, which started in 2006 and is still in its infancy, is not nearly as well-established as the platinum proofs. On top of that the lowest mintage coin for the unc-w coins were the 2006 ws, the 1st year of issue. The pricing for the 2006 ws did not enjoy the stablility we saw with the 2004 proofs. Also, the huge spike in platinum that took place during 2006 to 2008 had a big impact on platinum collectors as a whole, and negatively impacted the expected formation of a collector base.
All of that means that the price behavior for the unc-w coins won't follow the better-established proof series. The proofs enjoyed substantial sales in the initial years, declining sales during the 1999 to 2004 years. The 2004 offering period was cut short because of a change in marketing, which resulted in lower than expected/achievable direct sales and a spike in secondary market demand shortly after. 2004s had largely slipped under the radar of potential flippers, so not many hoards existed. The price spike that the 2004 coins enjoyed was new to the series, which previously were lucky to hold any numismatic premium and were often available for under issue price. Sales improved in 2005-2007, and 2008 was another strange offering year, with initial prices set in the stratosphere because of the spike in bullion, followed by a Mint-created sales hiatus, and then a one month fire sale period. Proof collectors can model their price expectations for the 2008 proofs on the largely stable price structure of the 2004 proof coins.
Conversely, potential uncirculated-w collectors don't have much to go on at this point. The price for the low-mintage 2006-w coins has been erratic. They enjoyed a big spike in price and demand in early 2007 after sales closed, and then the market deflated a bit later in 2007. Then platinum bullion spiked, and the numismatic premium for virtually all platinum coins except for the 2004 proofs and the smaller denomination 2006-w coins was absorbed by the rising tide of platinum spot to $2300+/ounce. This shook the foundation of the platinum collector market, and created a market where all platinums except for key dates and low pop 70 graded coins brought little or no premium over bullion price. Spot then receded to under $800/ounce and has since crept back to the $1200/ounce level.
Uncertainty about platinum spot, and whether platinums have a collector base sufficient to support a premium over melt, have really put a damper on the secondary market, at least for now. Once the spot market stabilizes and mintages are established, I expect a return of a collector base sufficient to support numismatic premiums that better reflect relative scarcity. >>
Thanks for the great analysis NYC.
As Grits said, it's great to see some life in this thread again!!
Comments
<< <i>Do you not get them slabbed even if you know you have 70s? I have several 2008s like that. No visible flaws when viewed through a 10x loupe. They're still in OGP, but I'm tempted to send them in. >>
That is correct. In fact, I'd guess at least half of my proofs are 70s and bet that's true for most other OGP fans here, too. Of course, those playing the slab game can make a lot of money, so we miss out on that in the short run. As a collector, though, nothing beats seeing these coins in their original cases. The Mint did a really nice job with the proofs--without going nuts as in the buffs and UHR.
And Whoo-Hoo--5000 posts!
<< <i>
<< <i>Do you not get them slabbed even if you know you have 70s? I have several 2008s like that. No visible flaws when viewed through a 10x loupe. They're still in OGP, but I'm tempted to send them in. >>
That is correct. In fact, I'd guess at least half of my proofs are 70s and bet that's true for most other OGP fans here, too. Of course, those playing the slab game can make a lot of money, so we miss out on that in the short run. As a collector, though, nothing beats seeing these coins in their original cases. The Mint did a really nice job with the proofs--without going nuts as in the buffs and UHR.
And Whoo-Hoo--5000 posts! >>
Glad that this thread has some life in it again!
Grits-
Why not do as Longshot says and slab them now leaving open the option to break them out and put them back in the OGP later if these predictions come true?
Interesting that the 95W $1 ASE Proof brings more slabbed in 69 than in OGP (which I strongly prefer), not to mention 70 which brings moon money.
Of course, I sold an identical set in Dec. for $3600 :-(
$6K!!!! for a 2008 NGC PF70 Gold Buff set on 6/1 HOLY COW!!!
2008 what a year for Moderns!!!!!
Of course, I sold an identical set in Dec. for $3600 :-(
Raufus, I notice that NGC seems to have more of the Gold Buffs certified as 70s than PCGS. Do you know if PCGS is tougher on these, and why else would NGC be getting the bulk of the submittals?
Is there a big spread between the NGC 70's and the PCGS 70's?
I knew it would happen.
Would those be raw proof or raw Unc sets? <rubbing hands together furiously>
<< <i>$5500 for an NGC PF70 2008 Plat proof set on 6/3. Just keeps going up.
Of course, I sold an identical set in Dec. for $3600 :-(
Raufus, I notice that NGC seems to have more of the Gold Buffs certified as 70s than PCGS. Do you know if PCGS is tougher on these, and why else would NGC be getting the bulk of the submittals?
Is there a big spread between the NGC 70's and the PCGS 70's? >>
jmski52-
I think but am not sure (don't have the NGC vs. PCGS pops) that NCG was easier. While by no means a significant sample, 18 of the 20 various whole and fractional buff proofs which I submitted to NCG came back 70.
I have not observed a huge spread in prices for PCGS vs. NGC 70s with the exception on PCGS FS coins which seem to consistantly bring a 20% + premium. Again, these are just my observations and are not supported by a detailed analysis.
any guesses?
<< <i>will there be a 2009 platinum coin?
any guesses? >>
I'm thinking not just because if you go to the Mint's product pages for the gold buffaloes, gold eagles and silver eagles, the Mint states that these will be offered once they have a sufficient inventory of blanks. But the platinum eagle page is completely empty.
Plus they don't even mention them on the Product Schedule page.
<< <i>Too bad I won't be around to see it. >>
??? Are you dying?
There already is a 2009 platinum coin. It's called a "maple leaf."
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i><<Last 3 raw buffalo 4 coin gold sets sold on Ebay brought over $4,000 a set. >>
Would those be raw proof or raw Unc sets? <rubbing hands together furiously> >>
Check this out!..............$5,000 for a raw set
http://cgi.ebay.com/2008-W-4-Coin-PROOF-American-Gold-Buffalo-Set-W-OGP_W0QQitemZ160339523777QQcmdZViewItemQQptZCoins_Bullion?hash=item2554faf8c1&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&_trkparms=65:13|66:2|39:1|240:1318|301:1|293:1|294:50
Linky
<< <i>Link to sale for $5,000.
Linky >>
Just unreal - and for an UNC set!!! I wonder what these and the '08 plats will go for in 5 years.
Did you see this PCGS MS70 Buff set for $8150 !!!!
http://cgi.ebay.com/2008-MS70-PCGS-4-coin-Gold-Buffalo-Set_W0QQitemZ170341379886QQcmdZViewItemQQptZCoins_Bullion?hash=item27a9232f2e&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&_trkparms=65:13|66:2|39:1|240:1318|301:0|293:1|294:50
$8,150 for a PCGS MS70 Buffalo Gold 4 coin set.
PCGS MS70 Buffalo Gold Set - $8,150!
$5,000 for a raw Buffalo Proof Gold 4 coin set!
Raw Buffalo Gold 4 coin Proof Set - $5,000
<< <i>$8,150 for a PCGS MS70 Buffalo Gold 4 coin set.
PCGS MS70 Buffalo Gold Set - $8,150!
$5,000 for a raw Buffalo Proof Gold 4 coin set!
Raw Buffalo Gold 4 coin Proof Set - $5,000 >>
Seems that the Buff and Plat sets have dropped about 20% lately. What's up with that? Summer slow down? Any thoughts?
<< <i>
<< <i>$8,150 for a PCGS MS70 Buffalo Gold 4 coin set.
PCGS MS70 Buffalo Gold Set - $8,150!
$5,000 for a raw Buffalo Proof Gold 4 coin set!
Raw Buffalo Gold 4 coin Proof Set - $5,000 >>
Seems that the Buff and Plat sets have dropped about 20% lately. What's up with that? Summer slow down? Any thoughts? >>
I can't speak to the APEs but that $5000 for a raw Buffalo set was a clear fluke.
Raw sets crossed $4,000 around 3-4 weeks ago when gold was over $950. They seem to be holding north of $4,000.
Generally in $4,000-$4,300 range.
They don't seem to have backed down with spot gold and they now clearly trade as a numismatic rather than bullion item.
There are surprisingly few raw sets for sale.
For last several months generally only 1-3 raw sets are all that can be found on Ebay..............none in stores.
I think the Platinums and Uncirculated AGEs will do well just may take a little longer than the Buffalos.
IF and I stress IF we get inflation and a spike in PM prices in 1-2 years then you may see a bubble in all the American Eagle prices.
<< <i>A lot of winners in 2008.
I think the Platinums and Uncirculated AGEs will do well just may take a little longer than the Buffalos.
IF and I stress IF we get inflation and a spike in PM prices in 1-2 years then you may see a bubble in all the American Eagle prices. >>
I agree--TONS of winners, but just not quite the right time to see them flourish. I'm especially interested in what will happen with the gold AGEs, since they've been flying under the radar. Let's talk in five years!
Seems a little odd.
By them final mintage numbers will be official and overhang will be diminished.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Well, this is a matter of dispersion. Flippers, etc. have gotten hold of recent issues and therefore relatively more coins are in relatively fewer hands. Thus coins such as the 2004 proof $50 platinum and 1997 Jackie Robinson $5 Unc. are, we believe and IMO much more widely and thinly spread. For the right price you can get nearly as many of the '08s as you need, but that would tend NOT to be the case with the two earlier coins. Therefore the supply side of the equation would push the prices of the earlier coins above the plats, gold W uncs, etc. >>
Amen. Eventually, this problem may correct itself. Then again, it may not. After all, who knows what happened to all of those '04s? Some may have been unwittingly melted down. Others treated carelessly. The '08 price, though, is only what, a couple of hundred below the '04? That's not bad for a brand new issue. What we need is more people with jobs and more collectors to see these really take off. And more promotion. I've seen only one really exhaustive article on this series since I began seriously collecting it three years ago. Hm...
I agree, though this also suggests that as the 2008s are gradually dispersed, the prices might rise (assuming sufficient demand exists). The demand-side is really the unknown; it could increase from here once mintages become finalized and if the Mint reduces its product lines.
I continue to have high hopes for the platinum uncirculated w coins, which I view as a discreet 3 coin subset of the platinum series with good designs and low mintages. The platinum proofs are nice, but it's an expensive series to attack going back to 1997. I know that the non-w uncirculated platinum bullion coins have their proponents, but I'm not among them.
I'm with you, GritsMan. Once 2008 final numbers are released, I think we'll see more articles about these coins, especially the uncirculated (w) coins. The population is small enough that a couple of hundred new collectors would make a difference. I hope the Mint does NOT go forward with the proposed 2009 platinum proof coin design, which I think is awful enough to ensure low mintage. I'd hate to see that design anywhere near the top of the low-pop list for the platinum proof series.
I would suppose audited numbers have to be completed by then for year end accounting.
This fall I'll rattle my congressional office to get final numbers.
We'll see......................
I'm not sure that conclusion is supported. Buffalos are more in demand than the platinums generally, the gold coin collector base is much larger than platinums, and the buffalo design has proven to be one of the more popular designs with collectors. I think it's a mistake to make a comparison between demand and pricing for buffalo golds and platinum coins; I don't think there's a reason to believe there's a direct overlap of those markets.
To the extent the 2008 platinum proofs are outperforming the 2008 w uncirc plats, it can be attributed to the fact that the 2008 proof numbers compare favorably to the 2004 plat proofs (established keys in a series that started in 1997), and a high and relatively stable price point existed for the 2004s.
The platinum w uncirculated market is not nearly as established as the proofs and the 2008 w uncirculated mintages don't compare favorably to the 2006 w uncirculateds at this point. The unc-w series/collector base/market, which started in 2006 and is still in its infancy, is not nearly as well-established as the platinum proofs. On top of that the lowest mintage coin for the unc-w coins were the 2006 ws, the 1st year of issue. The pricing for the 2006 ws did not enjoy the stablility we saw with the 2004 proofs. Also, the huge spike in platinum that took place during 2006 to 2008 had a big impact on platinum collectors as a whole, and negatively impacted the expected formation of a collector base.
All of that means that the price behavior for the unc-w coins won't follow the better-established proof series. The proofs enjoyed substantial sales in the initial years, declining sales during the 1999 to 2004 years. The 2004 offering period was cut short because of a change in marketing, which resulted in lower than expected/achievable direct sales and a spike in secondary market demand shortly after. 2004s had largely slipped under the radar of potential flippers, so not many hoards existed. The price spike that the 2004 coins enjoyed was new to the series, which previously were lucky to hold any numismatic premium and were often available for under issue price. Sales improved in 2005-2007, and 2008 was another strange offering year, with initial prices set in the stratosphere because of the spike in bullion, followed by a Mint-created sales hiatus, and then a one month fire sale period. Proof collectors can model their price expectations for the 2008 proofs on the largely stable price structure of the 2004 proof coins.
Conversely, potential uncirculated-w collectors don't have much to go on at this point. The price for the low-mintage 2006-w coins has been erratic. They enjoyed a big spike in price and demand in early 2007 after sales closed, and then the market deflated a bit later in 2007. Then platinum bullion spiked, and the numismatic premium for virtually all platinum coins except for the 2004 proofs and the smaller denomination 2006-w coins was absorbed by the rising tide of platinum spot to $2300+/ounce. This shook the foundation of the platinum collector market, and created a market where all platinums except for key dates and low pop 70 graded coins brought little or no premium over bullion price. Spot then receded to under $800/ounce and has since crept back to the $1200/ounce level.
Uncertainty about platinum spot, and whether platinums have a collector base sufficient to support a premium over melt, have really put a damper on the secondary market, at least for now. Once the spot market stabilizes and mintages are established, I expect a return of a collector base sufficient to support numismatic premiums that better reflect relative scarcity.
... as usual, some excellent points from "NY Council" ....
I still believe that the 2006-W through 2008-W platinum burnished uncirculated coins have great potential (and especially all
of the 2006-W uncirculated coins), as well as the 2008-W $50.00 platinum proof coin (the single lowest platinum proof mintage).
I agree, and if (when) platinum prices start rising again the 1/10 oz. set has the best prospects IMO. With a maximum possible mintage of 3,544 (the 2006-W mintage) and many tied up in 4-coin sets, I consider this set to be one of the best values in the numismatic market today.
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If you want buffaloes though you can't skip 2008 for the fractionals, or you have none.
The proof plats were established at the same time as the bullion plats. From the numbers I see there are more than twice as many bullion plats as proof plats. Many collect the bullion plats, as we see on Ebay. There seems to be many more PCGS graded bullion plats than proof plats as well.
So the evidence seems to point to a different conclusion than you see however time will tell who is correct. So far it appears that people are skipping the w coins if possible as I said, and the prices reflect that.
I agree with you on the 2006 w unc plats, they are the keys but prices did decline as you said. That may also be due to the addition of the 2007 and 2008 w unc coins which lessened the relative rarity of the 2006.
The buffalo fractionals will not get that same scenario, nor will the 2008 proof plats.
Plus you need two of each buffalo fractional - one for your type set and one for your date set!
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And the 2008 buffs? They've just got a great future under almost any scenario!
To be clear, I don't attribute the success of buffalos to the gold bullion, but on the basis that gold coins have a larger and more established collector base. Some collectors, including on this board, turn their nose up on platinum strictly on the basis of the base metal and the fact that platinum isn't among the metals that the Mint historically used for coinage. Imagine if the platinum "w" coins had instead been minted in gold -- they would have enjoyed a much larger base and immediate acceptance of the collecting community.
The reason w gold eagles haven't done as well isn't a reflection of the gold collector base, but the type. Gold w eagles are a non-changing design coin, so even the keys among them suffer because to the extent they are collected by type, there is no reason to gravitate towards the higher priced, low mintage keys. That's one of the reasons I like the platinums-- the changing reverse insures that each year is it's own type coin. Buffalo golds have the best of both worlds -- it's a very short series -- and the design is one of the most popular out there.
There's an upside to having a short three-year series:
1. It's much less expensive to complete.
2. The uncirculated set is more unified as it encompasses a single theme (the three branches of government), while the proofs span two themes plus several non-themed coins.
3. It's scarcer - the number of possible complete sets is much smaller. A low mintage often creates its own demand.
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... and I also think that the uncirculated platinum coins have done quite well.
Consider:
The 2008-W $100.00 burnished platinum uncirculated coins were selling from the mint last fall
for $1069.00, and are now realizing roughly $2,000.00 consistantly on e-bay in PMG-70. And
that is with platinum at only $1100.00 - $1200.00 per ounce (almost twice melt)!
Not too shabby!
Further, the 2006-W $100 burnished platinum uncirculated is presently selling at roughly $2500.00
in PCGS-70, or over twice melt. And in a severe recession to boot!
Again, very nice, and bodling well for the future!
Thoughts ???
<< <i>The reason w gold eagles haven't done as well isn't a reflection of the gold collector base, but the type. Gold w eagles are a non-changing design coin, so even the keys among them suffer because to the extent they are collected by type, there is no reason to gravitate towards the higher priced, low mintage keys. >>
That's what I said in my earlier post, they are skipping the w coins when they can.
So I am glad you agree with me finally. Now if you just change the w unc gold to w unc plats it could be the same outcome. The question is if the changing reverse is enough to alter the collectors and I don't think it is yet.
As to what people purchase for a type set, the smarter ones I think try to buy the lowest mintage coin they can afford in the best possible condition. So even the type collectors can help the low mintage coins.
<< <i>I wonder if the buffalo fractionals are still being made into jewelry. That's just CRAZY. I don't know what I would do if I saw an artist abusing one. >>
Well, let's keep hoping that they are! It sure ain't gonna hurt any of us holding these coins!
Unopened box of 4 Unc Buffalo Gold 1/2 oz coins!
<< <i>From the sales it looks like people are skipping the w coins when they can, so that may be why the prices are higher for the proof plats and buffaloes. You can't skip those.
I'm not sure that conclusion is supported. Buffalos are more in demand than the platinums generally, the gold coin collector base is much larger than platinums, and the buffalo design has proven to be one of the more popular designs with collectors. I think it's a mistake to make a comparison between demand and pricing for buffalo golds and platinum coins; I don't think there's a reason to believe there's a direct overlap of those markets.
To the extent the 2008 platinum proofs are outperforming the 2008 w uncirc plats, it can be attributed to the fact that the 2008 proof numbers compare favorably to the 2004 plat proofs (established keys in a series that started in 1997), and a high and relatively stable price point existed for the 2004s.
The platinum w uncirculated market is not nearly as established as the proofs and the 2008 w uncirculated mintages don't compare favorably to the 2006 w uncirculateds at this point. The unc-w series/collector base/market, which started in 2006 and is still in its infancy, is not nearly as well-established as the platinum proofs. On top of that the lowest mintage coin for the unc-w coins were the 2006 ws, the 1st year of issue. The pricing for the 2006 ws did not enjoy the stablility we saw with the 2004 proofs. Also, the huge spike in platinum that took place during 2006 to 2008 had a big impact on platinum collectors as a whole, and negatively impacted the expected formation of a collector base.
All of that means that the price behavior for the unc-w coins won't follow the better-established proof series. The proofs enjoyed substantial sales in the initial years, declining sales during the 1999 to 2004 years. The 2004 offering period was cut short because of a change in marketing, which resulted in lower than expected/achievable direct sales and a spike in secondary market demand shortly after. 2004s had largely slipped under the radar of potential flippers, so not many hoards existed. The price spike that the 2004 coins enjoyed was new to the series, which previously were lucky to hold any numismatic premium and were often available for under issue price. Sales improved in 2005-2007, and 2008 was another strange offering year, with initial prices set in the stratosphere because of the spike in bullion, followed by a Mint-created sales hiatus, and then a one month fire sale period. Proof collectors can model their price expectations for the 2008 proofs on the largely stable price structure of the 2004 proof coins.
Conversely, potential uncirculated-w collectors don't have much to go on at this point. The price for the low-mintage 2006-w coins has been erratic. They enjoyed a big spike in price and demand in early 2007 after sales closed, and then the market deflated a bit later in 2007. Then platinum bullion spiked, and the numismatic premium for virtually all platinum coins except for the 2004 proofs and the smaller denomination 2006-w coins was absorbed by the rising tide of platinum spot to $2300+/ounce. This shook the foundation of the platinum collector market, and created a market where all platinums except for key dates and low pop 70 graded coins brought little or no premium over bullion price. Spot then receded to under $800/ounce and has since crept back to the $1200/ounce level.
Uncertainty about platinum spot, and whether platinums have a collector base sufficient to support a premium over melt, have really put a damper on the secondary market, at least for now. Once the spot market stabilizes and mintages are established, I expect a return of a collector base sufficient to support numismatic premiums that better reflect relative scarcity. >>
Thanks for the great analysis NYC.
As Grits said, it's great to see some life in this thread again!!
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