I did a "production numbers" spreadsheet for last year's Topps heritage with basic math and using the stated odds kinda the same way that Jason just did, and last year there were 2,443,540 packs. Give or take.
WOW, the real one autos havn't been that "easy" to pull in years, that is explained by the crappy auto checklist. I'm glad that I don't have to do the math this year!!
10 refractor chromes 36 normal chromes 96 sp's 19 nap's 19 t&n 24 flashback 24 flashback news 12 relics or autos -------- 240 "special cards" in a 12 box case.
So thats 20 per box...and therefore there are only 4 "dud" packs per box....which is still the highest "dud" rate for any heritage release...another indication that the press run is higher.
Of course we have no idea about the black variation cards (88 total) and how they are seeded. All we know is that based on 1 box break and they are seeded 1 per pack. Oddly the black variation is not published on the pack, and neither is the sp pull rate.
Its not as bad as Pharber thinks. Consider 12 boxes = 288 packs = 1 case.
10 refractor chromes 36 normal chromes 96 sp's 19 nap's 19 t&n 24 flashback 24 flashback news 12 relics or autos -------- 240 "special cards" in a 12 box case.
So thats 20 per box...and therefore there are only 4 "dud" packs per box....which is still the highest "dud" rate for any heritage release...another indication that the press run is higher.
Of course we have no idea about the black variation cards (88 total) and how they are seeded. All we know is that based on 1 box break and they are seeded 1 per pack. Oddly the black variation is not published on the pack, and neither is the sp pull rate.
10 refractor chromes 36 normal chromes 96 sp's 19 nap's 19 t&n 24 flashback 24 flashback news 12 relics or autos -------- 240 "special cards" in a 12 box case.
So thats 20 per box...and therefore there are only 4 "dud" packs per box....which is still the highest "dud" rate for any heritage release...another indication that the press run is higher.
Of course we have no idea about the black variation cards (88 total) and how they are seeded. All we know is that based on 1 box break and they are seeded 1 per pack. Oddly the black variation is not published on the pack, and neither is the sp pull rate.
<< <i>Don't forget to consider that retail vs. blasters have different seed rates, so until both players are heard from, no calcs can be too useful yet. >>
All you need is a numbered card that is seeded at the same rate in both hobby and retail products. I would think that the chrome #ed to 1959 would be the one that would be 1:12 in every product. That would mean 2,350,800 total heritage packs. If Jim's figure of 982,000 hobby packs is accurate, then there would be 1,368,800 retail heritage packs available.
Actually, chrome #/1959 are seeded 1:8, so thats 1959 * 100 * 8 = 1,567,200 packs...which I think is too low for a total pack output. It's hard to say, because topps website says 2 chromes per box, but the wrapper clearly says 3 chromes per box.
also, consider the special edition real-ones (#/59) - there are 46 according to topps website checklist. they are seeded 1:835. that would mean that 59*46*835 = 2,266,190 packs...if and only if the seeding for these in retail is also 1:835.
What do you guys think about that big 'ol stamp on the original '59s. For some reason I didn't think it'd be that big. >>
I'm not a big fan of the stamp on the originals - it'll be interesting to see what the first Gibson brings on eBay...
I like the look of the Hughes card with the black background, and the rookie stars card looks pretty neat too. I can't wait to pull 6 Richie Sexson relics this year - it'll help me remember how much the Ms are paying him to whiff 154 times this season.
Kurt - you saw that, eh? Average $4.50 per, so I took a chance that at least one of them will be a Group A or B. If so, then I got a great deal; if not, then yes, I got a head start.
Ok, I was looking at the pull odds that Paul posted from the back of the pack picture. Group A relics are 1:4100, Group Bs are 1:18000, right? That means a Group B is a tougher pull than a red auto (1:835), a dual auto (1:6869), a clubhouse collection dual relic (1:5582), and a clubhouse collection auto relic (1:6875)?? How much sense does that make? Is it possible that the pack back is misprinted?
That's exactly what I though when I read that. If those numbers are real, those will be tough. Maybe I'll get lucky and pull a relic from the toughest group like I did last year (Wright).
<< <i>Actually, chrome #/1959 are seeded 1:8, so thats 1959 * 100 * 8 = 1,567,200 packs...which I think is too low for a total pack output. It's hard to say, because topps website says 2 chromes per box, but the wrapper clearly says 3 chromes per box. >>
If we split the difference we're around 1.9 million packs which is very close to what I calculated last year.
Thanks for the scans Geordie.
Why does Topps even need to put a sticker on the 59's? Not sure I see the purpose here.
In other news SVU18 is now Naru. I filed a dispute and escalated it to a claim with Paypal today.
Anythingu posted on the Beckett site two buyback cards he ripped in his case. Gus Zernial and Hobie Landrith. Yes, a huge 50th anniversary Topps insignia. Just too big.
Opened one pack so far (I'm at work). Brandon Webb chrome (chromes are numbered CXX this year) in the 7th spot, and a black back (card number and stats are in black instead of the regular green).
For those interested, here are the relic groupings:
Group A Berra, Aparicio, Gibson, Mazeroski
Group B Minoso (Mr. 1:18000)
Group C A. Jones, A. Ramirez, Abreu, Beltran, Delgado, C. Lee, D. Lee, Ortiz, Thomas, I. Rodriguez, Damon, Posada, Verlander, Green, Helton, Dunn, Crawford, Biggio, D. Young, E. Chavez
Group D G. Anderson, Blalock, Edmonds, Smoltz, Berkman, M. Cabrera, Tejada, Mussina, P. Martinez, Sexson, Oswalt, Howard, Zimmerman, Hunter, Hafner
Ink: 1 (blue - Bob Speake from the Giants) Relics: 0
Which means I got shorted at least a relic. Stated on the box: "Look for one Real One Autograph or Relic Card in every box!" I believe the procedure here is to send the UPC code from the box to Topps for a replacement card, right?
Chrome: 5 (Griffey, Webb, Rowand, A. Miller, V. Wells) Refractor: Braun Flashbacks: 5 News Flashbacks: 4 NAP: 3 Then & Now: 4 1959 Buyback: 1
That makes 23 inserts/chrome which leaves 25 other "7th cards" - don't know if they're all short prints or not. If SPs are seeded 1:3, then obviously no. But if they're 1:2, then the numbers work out for the most part.
<< <i>What do you guys think about that big 'ol stamp on the original '59s. For some reason I didn't think it'd be that big. >>
I'm not a big fan of the stamp on the originals - it'll be interesting to see what the first Gibson brings on eBay...
I like the look of the Hughes card with the black background, and the rookie stars card looks pretty neat too. I can't wait to pull 6 Richie Sexson relics this year - it'll help me remember how much the Ms are paying him to whiff 154 times this season.
Bring on the ripping! >>
So they take an orignal '59 and put a big stamp on it? Who comes up with these ideas???? Between this and "hey let's hack up a game used Ruth jersey and put it on a piece of cardboard." I'm really hoping there's some sort of 180 degree turn in the hobby. Sorry for the rant, but some things just puzzle me.
"I've never been able to properly explain myself in this climate" -Raul Duke
ebay i.d. clydecoolidge - Lots of vintage stars and HOFers, raw, condition fully disclosed.
Wow! You guys are getting me excited! Cant wait to get my 2 boxes from LRcards. I remember opening packs in 1959. I was 15. There was several series. 5 or 6? Maybe 7. When you finished a series you had to wait for a new box to go in the newsroom store.Frasiers News. You had to buy a pack to see if it was the next series. The boxes werent marked what series it was. 5 cents a pack. $1.20 a box. Just Topps, it was great. Dream on. Dave.
I thought someone had a checklist but I can't find it. Help please.
Also, blowout is now asking 749.99 +24.99 per case and 67.99 +9.99 per box. I would think they could be more competitive based on what I paid and what I see on ebay. Just my opinion.
So what is this about svu18 is now naru? I guess Ebay suspended him and now he is starting over? Is this guy really trying to make good on his dealings with those of us who ordered with him? Any information on this would be greatly appreciated....
Five boxes in so far. I've gotten the standard number of pulls per box, on average. I've also pulled three total "buybacks" which are sequential - #s 95, 96 and 97, which means I'm due for a run that looks something like this:
95 Carl Willey -- Milwaukee Braves 96 Lou Berberet -- Detroit Tigers 97 Jerry Lynch -- Cincinnati Reds 98 Arnie Portocarrero -- Baltimore Orioles 99 Ted Kazanski -- Philadelphia Phillies 100 Bob Cerv -- Kansas City Athletics
Chrome: 14 Refractors: 3 Then & Now: 9 of 10 News Flashbacks: 10 of 10 Flashbacks: 10 of 10 New Age Performers: 8 of 15 Blue Ink: 1 Clubhouse Collection: 3 Flashback Relics: 1
Well I'll be taking it easy this year, mainly relying on retail. Sorry to see so many got screwed by ebay sellers, hopefully you all get your refunds or cards. I may order a couple of hobby boxes before the week is out, but probably no ripping until next week (local dealers want $100+/box). So for everybody that's ripping lets see some scans (Geordie this means you!!!). Looking forward to some more great trades this year and hoping everybody pulls some good ink this year.
You guys are KILLING me! I have not bought any cards in 141 days, and it will probably be three months before I buy any more. My plan was to buy a master set and work on some of the older Heritage sets, but I will have to rip some hobby boxes. I hope I can hold out.
Collector of 1976 Topps baseball for some stupid reason. Collector of Pittsburgh Pirates cards for a slightly less stupid reason. My Pirates Collection
I can't remember having a product live (I don't have mine yet) without knowing the SPs. That being said, my memory isn't what it used to be. Any sense for SPs yet Geordie?
Comments
to do the math this year!!
Kevin
Allen & Ginter Cards
My Blog -- Ballcard Mania
8 SPs in a box,
2 chromes,
4 inserts
maybe 1 or two other surprises.
There's going to be a lot of packs with nothing but commons.
10 refractor chromes
36 normal chromes
96 sp's
19 nap's
19 t&n
24 flashback
24 flashback news
12 relics or autos
--------
240 "special cards" in a 12 box case.
So thats 20 per box...and therefore there are only 4 "dud" packs per box....which is still the highest "dud" rate for any heritage release...another indication that the press run is higher.
Of course we have no idea about the black variation cards (88 total) and how they are seeded. All we know is that based on 1 box break and they are seeded 1 per pack. Oddly the black variation is not published on the pack, and neither is the sp pull rate.
Topps Heritage - Trade Page
10 refractor chromes
36 normal chromes
96 sp's
19 nap's
19 t&n
24 flashback
24 flashback news
12 relics or autos
--------
240 "special cards" in a 12 box case.
So thats 20 per box...and therefore there are only 4 "dud" packs per box....which is still the highest "dud" rate for any heritage release...another indication that the press run is higher.
Of course we have no idea about the black variation cards (88 total) and how they are seeded. All we know is that based on 1 box break and they are seeded 1 per pack. Oddly the black variation is not published on the pack, and neither is the sp pull rate.
Topps Heritage - Trade Page
10 refractor chromes
36 normal chromes
96 sp's
19 nap's
19 t&n
24 flashback
24 flashback news
12 relics or autos
--------
240 "special cards" in a 12 box case.
So thats 20 per box...and therefore there are only 4 "dud" packs per box....which is still the highest "dud" rate for any heritage release...another indication that the press run is higher.
Of course we have no idea about the black variation cards (88 total) and how they are seeded. All we know is that based on 1 box break and they are seeded 1 per pack. Oddly the black variation is not published on the pack, and neither is the sp pull rate.
Topps Heritage - Trade Page
<< <i>Don't forget to consider that retail vs. blasters have different seed rates, so until both players are heard from, no calcs can be too useful yet. >>
All you need is a numbered card that is seeded at the same rate in both hobby and retail products. I would think that the chrome #ed to 1959 would be the one that would be 1:12 in every product. That would mean 2,350,800 total heritage packs. If Jim's figure of 982,000 hobby packs is accurate, then there would be 1,368,800 retail heritage packs available.
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
What do you guys think about that big 'ol stamp on the original '59s. For some reason I didn't think it'd be that big.
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
also, consider the special edition real-ones (#/59) - there are 46 according to topps website checklist. they are seeded 1:835. that would mean that 59*46*835 = 2,266,190 packs...if and only if the seeding for these in retail is also 1:835.
Topps Heritage - Trade Page
2000 Bowman Chrome
2002 Topps Heritage NAP
2003 Topps Heritage chrome and seat relics
2006 Topps Heritage refractors and relics
2007 Topps Heritage refractors and relics
2008 Topps Heritage refractors and relics
2006 Topps Heritage and Topps Chrome football
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
What do you guys think about that big 'ol stamp on the original '59s. For some reason I didn't think it'd be that big. >>
I'm not a big fan of the stamp on the originals - it'll be interesting to see what the first Gibson brings on eBay...
I like the look of the Hughes card with the black background, and the rookie stars card looks pretty neat too. I can't wait to pull 6 Richie Sexson relics this year - it'll help me remember how much the Ms are paying him to whiff 154 times this season.
Bring on the ripping!
<< <i>I can't wait to pull 6 Richie Sexson relics this year.......... >>
Last year there was as much Scott Rolen (Jersey and Bat) as you could handle.
The key is the shipping is free.
Compare that to anything you could find on eBay with $10 shipping and it's a pretty good deal.
I've never bought from him before yesterday, so I can't vouch for the seller yet, but others here have.
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
That's exactly what I though when I read that. If those numbers are real, those will be tough. Maybe I'll get lucky and pull a relic from the toughest group like I did last year (Wright).
<< <i>Actually, chrome #/1959 are seeded 1:8, so thats 1959 * 100 * 8 = 1,567,200 packs...which I think is too low for a total pack output. It's hard to say, because topps website says 2 chromes per box, but the wrapper clearly says 3 chromes per box. >>
If we split the difference we're around 1.9 million packs which is very close to what I calculated last year.
Thanks for the scans Geordie.
Why does Topps even need to put a sticker on the 59's? Not sure I see the purpose here.
In other news SVU18 is now Naru. I filed a dispute and escalated it to a claim with Paypal today.
Happy Heritage all,
Dave
Now collecting:
Topps Heritage
1957 Topps BB Ex+-NM
All Yaz Items 7+
Various Red Sox
Did I leave anything out?
Thanks
Travis
2000 Bowman Chrome
2002 Topps Heritage NAP
2003 Topps Heritage chrome and seat relics
2006 Topps Heritage refractors and relics
2007 Topps Heritage refractors and relics
2008 Topps Heritage refractors and relics
2006 Topps Heritage and Topps Chrome football
Opened one pack so far (I'm at work). Brandon Webb chrome (chromes are numbered CXX this year) in the 7th spot, and a black back (card number and stats are in black instead of the regular green).
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
Group A
Berra, Aparicio, Gibson, Mazeroski
Group B
Minoso (Mr. 1:18000)
Group C
A. Jones, A. Ramirez, Abreu, Beltran, Delgado, C. Lee, D. Lee, Ortiz, Thomas, I. Rodriguez, Damon, Posada, Verlander, Green, Helton, Dunn, Crawford, Biggio, D. Young, E. Chavez
Group D
G. Anderson, Blalock, Edmonds, Smoltz, Berkman, M. Cabrera, Tejada, Mussina, P. Martinez, Sexson, Oswalt, Howard, Zimmerman, Hunter, Hafner
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
<< <i>A lot of us are trying LRCards. Currently at $62 for the first box, and a price break after that for each additional
The key is the shipping is free.
Compare that to anything you could find on eBay with $10 shipping and it's a pretty good deal.
I've never bought from him before yesterday, so I can't vouch for the seller yet, but others here have. >>
I bought a case of 2007 A&G from LRCards. It worked out well for me.
1996 Select Certified Mirror Gold Ozzie Smith
2006 Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor Chris Carpenter
Red Ink
Ink: 1 (blue - Bob Speake from the Giants)
Relics: 0
Which means I got shorted at least a relic. Stated on the box: "Look for one Real One Autograph or Relic Card in every box!" I believe the procedure here is to send the UPC code from the box to Topps for a replacement card, right?
Chrome: 5 (Griffey, Webb, Rowand, A. Miller, V. Wells)
Refractor: Braun
Flashbacks: 5
News Flashbacks: 4
NAP: 3
Then & Now: 4
1959 Buyback: 1
That makes 23 inserts/chrome which leaves 25 other "7th cards" - don't know if they're all short prints or not. If SPs are seeded 1:3, then obviously no. But if they're 1:2, then the numbers work out for the most part.
Geordie
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
<< <i>What do you guys think about that big 'ol stamp on the original '59s. For some reason I didn't think it'd be that big. >>
I'm not a big fan of the stamp on the originals - it'll be interesting to see what the first Gibson brings on eBay...
I like the look of the Hughes card with the black background, and the rookie stars card looks pretty neat too. I can't wait to pull 6 Richie Sexson relics this year - it'll help me remember how much the Ms are paying him to whiff 154 times this season.
Bring on the ripping! >>
So they take an orignal '59 and put a big stamp on it? Who comes up with these ideas???? Between this and "hey let's hack up a game used Ruth jersey and put it on a piece of cardboard." I'm really hoping there's some sort of 180 degree turn in the hobby. Sorry for the rant, but some things just puzzle me.
ebay i.d. clydecoolidge - Lots of vintage stars and HOFers, raw, condition fully disclosed.
Make sure you keep all the wrappers and the box they came in for Topps. I understand they were sticklers last year.
What do you think the Minoso Relic will sell for on eBay ? I could see the first couple that surface selling over $500.
<< <i>BEHOLD!!! >>
Wooohooooooo
I just checked Walmart-no Heritage but I've got the rip bug bad so I bought a blaster of 2007 Topps '52 Rookies.
Now collecting:
Topps Heritage
1957 Topps BB Ex+-NM
All Yaz Items 7+
Various Red Sox
Did I leave anything out?
Chrome: 4 (Zito, Hamels, Ichiro, D. Lee)
Refractor: Pudge
Clubhouse Collection: Edmonds
Flashback Relic: Aparicio
NAP: 1
Then & Now: 1
Flashback: 2
News Flashback: 2
Box 4:
Chrome: 2 UGH
Refractor: 0
Clubhouse Collection: Helton
Flashback Relic: 0
NAP: 2
Then & Now: 1
Flashback: 2
News Flashback: 2
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
shawn
<< <i>Looks great Geordie, keep them coming!!! You pulled my Griffey refractor already!!
shawn >>
Not a refractor, Shawn - just a regular one. If I pull one, it's yours.
I'm now updated through box #4.
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
Also, blowout is now asking 749.99 +24.99 per case and 67.99 +9.99 per box. I would think they could be more competitive based on what I paid and what I see on ebay.
Just my opinion.
Is this common for LRCards?
Just curious about the order process.
Tim
Kevin
Thanks!
Craig in Texas
MY TOPPS BLOG -- CHECK IT OUT!!!
95 Carl Willey -- Milwaukee Braves
96 Lou Berberet -- Detroit Tigers
97 Jerry Lynch -- Cincinnati Reds
98 Arnie Portocarrero -- Baltimore Orioles
99 Ted Kazanski -- Philadelphia Phillies
100 Bob Cerv -- Kansas City Athletics
Chrome: 14
Refractors: 3
Then & Now: 9 of 10
News Flashbacks: 10 of 10
Flashbacks: 10 of 10
New Age Performers: 8 of 15
Blue Ink: 1
Clubhouse Collection: 3
Flashback Relics: 1
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
My Registry Sets
Collector of Pittsburgh Pirates cards for a slightly less stupid reason.
My Pirates Collection
Kevin - Have you worked any magic yet getting an SP list from some of the multiple case breakers?