It's never too early for an overreaction, so let's delve into the small-sample pool and look at how some of the year's notable rookies have performed to date, with an eye towards how valid these small samples are.
Hitters
Twelve MLB rookies have at least 75 at-bats this year; Carlos Ruiz of the Phillies leads the group in batting average at .272, while only three of the 12 are slugging over .400. So you might say the rookie hitting class has been disappointing so far. Let's take a look at some of the top names in that group:
Young • Delmon Young's talent isn't enough to overcome his lousy plate discipline and poor pitch selection. It's hard to hit for average when you're constantly behind in the count, which Young has been. His long-term outlook remains bright, but he's going to have to learn to be at least a bit more selective, especially early in the count, to succeed. Teammate Elijah Dukes has been a little more successful, working the count well but not hitting for the power expected to date.
• Troy Tulowitzki is in the majors because of his defense -- unassisted triple plays are just a bonus -- even though his bat probably wasn't ready. He's making plenty of contact and is going the other way, both good signs, but his power is more to pull, so his homer total will probably stay down as long as he has this contact-centric approach.
• Josh Hamilton leads all rookies with eight homers, and he's taking good at-bats. He has substantial talent, with obvious raw power, but his inexperience has started to show at the plate. Now that pitchers are adjusting to him, expanding the zone on him when they get ahead in the count, we'll see how well he can adjust in return.
• Alex Gordon was definitely pressing early, and he's still struggling to make contact, especially against better offspeed stuff. He's got just one year of pro experience, none above Double-A, so the fact that he needs some time to adjust isn't a surprise, even if we expected him not to.
Buck • Travis Buck is leading all American League rookies on this list in slugging, which is ironic since he has less raw power than Delmon Young, Chris Young, Dukes, Gordon and Hamilton. It looks like in an effort to hit with more power, he's abandoned his old spray-the-field-with-line-drives approach in favor of trying to pull the ball. That's not his game; he's not a 30-homer guy, but should be able to hit .280 with plenty of walks and doubles.
• Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop.
• Kevin Kouzmanoff has been, to put it politely, a disaster. He struggles to catch up to major league stuff, just like he did in the Arizona Fall League. He's not really a .115 hitter, but he's not an average everyday bat at third base, either.
• Chris Young has been the victim of some bad luck, putting the ball in play quite a bit more than expected but finding a lot of leather instead of hits. He's getting under the ball a little bit, perhaps a function of pitch recognition but not the result of anything I see in his swing.
Lind • Adam Lind is the most recent call-up in this group, and he's gotten off to a nice start in the power department. Lind has as much raw hitting ability as anyone on this list, and he hits right-handed pitching particularly well. Given a platoon-mate, he'll be very productive this year, although it's best for his long-term development if the Jays let him face lefties and get used to seeing them.
Pitchers
Only six rookies have thrown 30 or more innings this year, five if we exclude Japanese imports (and de jure rookies) Kei Igawa and Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is partly a function of teams' reluctance to hand rotation spots to rookies, but it also reflects how poorly some rookie starters have pitched. Here's a run through of those who've reached the 30-inning mark: • Jason Hirsh sports a 4.10 ERA despite pitching in the most inhospitable environment for a flyball pitcher. Hirsh excites a lot of people because he's big and throws somewhat hard, but his fastball is very true and he struggles to get anything down. His hot start this year is a bit of a mirage, as pitchers who give up a lot of fly balls (Hirsh's flyball rate is 62 percent) tend to give up a lot of homers, while Hirsh has given up five in 41 2/3 innings. That's not sustainable.
• John Danks is good evidence of why that's not sustainable; he's pitched as well as Hirsh has, arguably better given the competition, but he's already given up six homers in 35 1/3 innings, pitching in another good park for home-run hitters. Danks has a solid-average fastball that, like Hirsh's, tends to straighten out, and he hasn't shown a good change this year, allowing righties to slug .465 against him. I like him somewhat in the long term, but this may be a developmental year for Danks.
Chico • Matt Chico wouldn't actually be in the majors with any club but Washington. He has below-average command (and way below-average control) of below-average stuff.
• Chris Sampson is a great story -- he was originally drafted as a shortstop, retired, and came back as a pitcher three years later -- but he's peaking right now. He has above-average control of fringy stuff, and wouldn't survive in the American League; even in the NL Central, he's walking a tightrope and is going to have a lot of starts where he gets knocked out early by allowing too much contact.
• He's just short of 30 innings, but Mike Pelfrey merits his own mention. His need for a reliable breaking ball has been put into sharper focus in his five starts this year, and even more concerning, he hasn't been getting groundballs at his usual rate. His velocity is fine, but his slider is inconsistent, and he seems to overthrow his fastball when he gets into trouble. Pelfrey's upside is huge, but he's moving further away from fulfilling it.
Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.
Too early to tell, Okajima is certainly doing a great job so far, lets hope he keeps up the good work. ROY talk is great but be cautious.....IE: Arod breaking Barry Bonds HR record talk has cooled off quite a bit.
I am speechless. And I thought I've just about seen everything this year with that back-to-back-to-back-to-back homerun derby a while back. This team is definitely special.
More good news, it looks like Beckett didn't have blister afterall, but some tearing of the skin. They say he should make his next start as long as they treat properly. Too bad he didn't get credit for win as he pitched great.
And for good measure why not a.................................................................................................................................................................
I thought the Drew signing was a bad idea too. Despite what they were hoping for, he is not Fred Lynn. I would have been happy if they had kept Nixon for one more year.
I have no problem with Drew - he'll have the numbers this season, don't worry. But the story tonight was Dice - he seems to have made some adjustments over his last few starts, and he looks stronger than even that first start at KC. This pitching staff is strong, top to bottom.
The only positive about last night's loss is that Verlander is on my fantasy squad, normally I dont start pitchers against the Sox but he was a 2 start pitcher this week.
OK, I hear they are calling someone up from AAA to start for Beckett on Saturday. Why not start Snyder? It's not like the bullpen has been overtaxed lately, and you can dump the call-up in the bullpen anyway.
Actually if they start the call-up, they should give him #21!
I agree with you. It was a nice game today and I'm looking forward to an offensive showcase tonight. I wouldn't mind seeing Schilling turn in a better performance than last time either.
<< <i>I agree with you. It was a nice game today and I'm looking forward to an offensive showcase tonight. I wouldn't mind seeing Schilling turn in a better performance than last time either. >>
Schilling should see tonight's game as a challenge -- "what do you mean you might let up more runs than me, Schill?" says Tavarez...
Let me ask you guys this, first off Clemens can go F himself but do you think he might regret joining the Yankees if they keep falling? I bet he was thinking he could be the hero in NY as he joined them when they were only 4 out right? I was just thinking about that one, what do you guys think?
Congrats to the Red Sox on the wins against the Tigers. It wasn't the end result I was hoping for but still the games were close and fun to watch. Maybe we'll do better next time. Sox pitching really came through and shut down some good hitters consistently. Hats off to you!
<< <i>I just have this "gut" feeling the Yanks are going to improve as soon as Roger joins. Even if "Farts"worth is running his mouth about the family plan >>
By no meens am I saying the Yankees are done but lets be realistic, their chances are getting pretty slim at this point. I know its still early but this Sox team is good enough I think not to fold up a 10 game lead, I still say Clemens will have a minimal impact for the Yanks.
Overall your are probably right, they SEEM to have the tools to win, and Clemens will improve that and give a little confidence boost. But I dont see him himself making a HUGE impact
Comments
<< <i>Agreed - lots of runs, another good game at the plate for Lugo also. Hideki Okajima is doing a fantastic job out of the pen! >>
ROY candidate?
It's never too early for an overreaction, so let's delve into the small-sample pool and look at how some of the year's notable rookies have performed to date, with an eye towards how valid these small samples are.
Hitters
Twelve MLB rookies have at least 75 at-bats this year; Carlos Ruiz of the Phillies leads the group in batting average at .272, while only three of the 12 are slugging over .400. So you might say the rookie hitting class has been disappointing so far. Let's take a look at some of the top names in that group:
Young
• Delmon Young's talent isn't enough to overcome his lousy plate discipline and poor pitch selection. It's hard to hit for average when you're constantly behind in the count, which Young has been. His long-term outlook remains bright, but he's going to have to learn to be at least a bit more selective, especially early in the count, to succeed. Teammate Elijah Dukes has been a little more successful, working the count well but not hitting for the power expected to date.
• Troy Tulowitzki is in the majors because of his defense -- unassisted triple plays are just a bonus -- even though his bat probably wasn't ready. He's making plenty of contact and is going the other way, both good signs, but his power is more to pull, so his homer total will probably stay down as long as he has this contact-centric approach.
• Josh Hamilton leads all rookies with eight homers, and he's taking good at-bats. He has substantial talent, with obvious raw power, but his inexperience has started to show at the plate. Now that pitchers are adjusting to him, expanding the zone on him when they get ahead in the count, we'll see how well he can adjust in return.
• Alex Gordon was definitely pressing early, and he's still struggling to make contact, especially against better offspeed stuff. He's got just one year of pro experience, none above Double-A, so the fact that he needs some time to adjust isn't a surprise, even if we expected him not to.
Buck
• Travis Buck is leading all American League rookies on this list in slugging, which is ironic since he has less raw power than Delmon Young, Chris Young, Dukes, Gordon and Hamilton. It looks like in an effort to hit with more power, he's abandoned his old spray-the-field-with-line-drives approach in favor of trying to pull the ball. That's not his game; he's not a 30-homer guy, but should be able to hit .280 with plenty of walks and doubles.
• Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop.
• Kevin Kouzmanoff has been, to put it politely, a disaster. He struggles to catch up to major league stuff, just like he did in the Arizona Fall League. He's not really a .115 hitter, but he's not an average everyday bat at third base, either.
• Chris Young has been the victim of some bad luck, putting the ball in play quite a bit more than expected but finding a lot of leather instead of hits. He's getting under the ball a little bit, perhaps a function of pitch recognition but not the result of anything I see in his swing.
Lind
• Adam Lind is the most recent call-up in this group, and he's gotten off to a nice start in the power department. Lind has as much raw hitting ability as anyone on this list, and he hits right-handed pitching particularly well. Given a platoon-mate, he'll be very productive this year, although it's best for his long-term development if the Jays let him face lefties and get used to seeing them.
Pitchers
Only six rookies have thrown 30 or more innings this year, five if we exclude Japanese imports (and de jure rookies) Kei Igawa and Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is partly a function of teams' reluctance to hand rotation spots to rookies, but it also reflects how poorly some rookie starters have pitched. Here's a run through of those who've reached the 30-inning mark:
• Jason Hirsh sports a 4.10 ERA despite pitching in the most inhospitable environment for a flyball pitcher. Hirsh excites a lot of people because he's big and throws somewhat hard, but his fastball is very true and he struggles to get anything down. His hot start this year is a bit of a mirage, as pitchers who give up a lot of fly balls (Hirsh's flyball rate is 62 percent) tend to give up a lot of homers, while Hirsh has given up five in 41 2/3 innings. That's not sustainable.
• John Danks is good evidence of why that's not sustainable; he's pitched as well as Hirsh has, arguably better given the competition, but he's already given up six homers in 35 1/3 innings, pitching in another good park for home-run hitters. Danks has a solid-average fastball that, like Hirsh's, tends to straighten out, and he hasn't shown a good change this year, allowing righties to slug .465 against him. I like him somewhat in the long term, but this may be a developmental year for Danks.
Chico
• Matt Chico wouldn't actually be in the majors with any club but Washington. He has below-average command (and way below-average control) of below-average stuff.
• Chris Sampson is a great story -- he was originally drafted as a shortstop, retired, and came back as a pitcher three years later -- but he's peaking right now. He has above-average control of fringy stuff, and wouldn't survive in the American League; even in the NL Central, he's walking a tightrope and is going to have a lot of starts where he gets knocked out early by allowing too much contact.
• He's just short of 30 innings, but Mike Pelfrey merits his own mention. His need for a reliable breaking ball has been put into sharper focus in his five starts this year, and even more concerning, he hasn't been getting groundballs at his usual rate. His velocity is fine, but his slider is inconsistent, and he seems to overthrow his fastball when he gets into trouble. Pelfrey's upside is huge, but he's moving further away from fulfilling it.
Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.
Bosox1976
Somebody up there likes us this year!
More good news, it looks like Beckett didn't have blister afterall, but some tearing of the skin. They say he should make his next start as long as they treat properly. Too bad he didn't get credit for win as he pitched great.
that's the way to steal one!
Bosox1976
<< <i>
that's the way to steal one! >>
No kidding -- they sure pulled that one out of their ass!! Of course, you know what Yogi alway said . . . . . .
Bosox1976
SWWEET k of Ordonez!
Drew has plenty of time to put up #'s, I still (and always will ) say he was overpaid.
<< <i>ok 7 is good >>
Glad they took your advice.
<< <i>Lets help Wakefield out..... Lets Go Sox!!!!!!!!!! >>
Be nice if JD started earning his ca$$$$$h!
But seriously, Verlander is a great young pitcher, and the Tigers are a good team. We'll get 'em back tomorrow with G38.
<< <i>Verlander is just nasty tonight. We cannot win 'em all, although the game is not over just yet.... >>
No question, Verlander is a bona-fide ace. If they get Rogers and Zumaya(sp?) healthy, they will be built for a World Series run as well.
Actually if they start the call-up, they should give him #21!
<< <i>Actually if they start the call-up, they should give him #21!
Yes # 21 should be handed out to every new guy every year!
<< <i>
<< <i>Actually if they start the call-up, they should give him #21!
Yes # 21 should be handed out to every new guy every year! >>
I love that idea!
Beckett might be alright to go in the first game of the NY series on Monday, but I would rather they not rush him back if he's not ready.
<< <i>I agree with you. It was a nice game today and I'm looking forward to an offensive showcase tonight. I wouldn't mind seeing Schilling turn in a better performance than last time either. >>
Schilling should see tonight's game as a challenge -- "what do you mean you might let up more runs than me, Schill?" says Tavarez...
Bosox1976
Schilling had a tough few innings but worked himself out of it showcasing why he is such a GREAT pitcher, 9.5 games up....
Bosox1976
the games were close and fun to watch. Maybe we'll do better next time. Sox pitching really came through
and shut down some good hitters consistently. Hats off to you!
<< <i>I just have this "gut" feeling the Yanks are going to improve as soon as Roger joins. Even if "Farts"worth is running his mouth about the family plan >>
By no meens am I saying the Yankees are done but lets be realistic, their chances are getting pretty slim at this point. I know its still early but this Sox team is good enough I think not to fold up a 10 game lead, I still say Clemens will have a minimal impact for the Yanks.