Article from CW is available from the online version for May 7th, kinda a piddly little article, with incorrect info, Says went on sale April 2, not the 4th, doesn't really hit the point of first day of mintage. Iexpected more of a write up than that... We shall see...
If the Mint starts getting massive returns, then these speculators are not only the Mint's best friends but also their worst enemies. I wonder how the Mint might react. Would it institute order limits?... or just cut the total production numbers of future issues?
I eagerly await the one-week sellout of the Washington SHQ FD coin cover.
<< <i>I think the response would be to modify the return policy. >>
Order limits makes more sense. The problem here is that people ordered a lot more than they really wanted in order to speculate on the market. If the expected price jump upon sellout doesn't happen, then the mint might get a lot returned and the ones returning them are going to be the people who ordered the most.
Even if the market on these tanks, I do not think you are going to see people who ordered less than 10 flooding the Mint with returns. It will be the people with cases of them which will be doing the returns.
-Fuzz
Why is it, "A penny for your thoughts," but, "you have to put your two cents in?" Somebody's making a penny.
<< <i>I think the response would be to modify the return policy. >>
Order limits makes more sense. The problem here is that people ordered a lot more than they really wanted in order to speculate on the market. If the expected price jump upon sellout doesn't happen, then the mint might get a lot returned and the ones returning them are going to be the people who ordered the most.
Even if the market on these tanks, I do not think you are going to see people who ordered less than 10 flooding the Mint with returns. It will be the people with cases of them which will be doing the returns.
-Fuzz >>
there should be an order limit of 50 on any item. You should only be able to order more if you are a registered dealer with the mint, similar to the registered buiilion dealers for the gold, silver and plat bullion coins.
1. The Mint might fail to properly count the number of items returned, leaving the speculator to pay the difference.
2. The Mint might take 2-3 months to issue a credit for returns, leaving the speculator with credit card interest payments on thousands of dollars in limbo.
1. The Mint might fail to properly count the number of items returned, leaving the speculator to pay the difference.
2. The Mint might take 2-3 months to issue a credit for returns, leaving the speculator with credit card interest payments on thousands of dollars in limbo. >>
They do #2. I've been told that returns over $300 have to go through "Washington," and unless you file a credit card dispute you do get those interest charges.
<< <i>It can't go below $2, better than state's 50 cents
I thought it was $2.39. >>
Nope, just $2 as the stamp has already been cancelled.
Also I agree with the prior poster that it has only been a few weeks and give these items a chance. I know we all want instant profits but this is a long program and it has just started.
-Fuzz
Why is it, "A penny for your thoughts," but, "you have to put your two cents in?" Somebody's making a penny.
Nope, just $2 as the stamp has already been cancelled.
That is a rip off, they take 39c right away. But this will be the only cover with the 39c stamp since Postal Rate will go up the middle of next month. Maybe the next cover will be 39c if they back date them also.
Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent. San Diego, CA
Being as the 07-w ASE Unc got pushed back again I'll be happy to take 10 sets at issue price if anyone needs to unload some, cheaper than eBay fee's...
On BS&T Now: Nothing. Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up! Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
<< Like I said before, sellers need to be carefule about listing enormous quamtities that the market cant absorb quickly enough..Stick a fork in these covers, they are DONE. >>
Not even close!
I'm selling 1-3 a day at $24 + $7 Ship just out of a 50 Unit.
Mr. Magoo is the real problem here. At 19.95 and 2.95 shipping, he's making an actual profit of about $4 per set, after fees, for single-set transactions. If a person buys more than one set, he's making about $3 per additional set. Hopefully he'll run out soon and the market can recover, but when one person seems determined to undercut anyone and everyone, even at a loss to himself, what can you do?
7over8 is right: sellers have placed enormous pressure on the market. From where I stand, it looks like everything depends on the US Mint: if enough orders are returned to convice the Mint to reopen sales, then it'll be disasterous. Just the psycological impact of a re-release of a sold out product will be catastrophic. This HAS happened before, both with the Delaware FDCCs and with the Ocean in View FDCCs. That is the main thing buyers and sellers need to be careful of. Assuming the Mint does NOT re-release these sets, we are looking at a three stage market:
Phase I--the flippers who bought hundreds or thousands of sets. The flippers are selling sets in boxes of 50, in lots of 10 and 20, and so on. Phase II--the "wholesalers" who missed out at the Mint but think they see a really good deal. These are the people who are buying in quantity from the flippers. Phase III--retail, end-customers. These are the people who either want the coins for themselves, or to give as gifts to relatives.
I have sold a number of coins in lots of 10-50, so I believe the "wholesale" section of the market is going strong. Good numismatic press should increase the demand from end-users, which will also increase the demand from wholesalers hoping to profit by buying these in bulk and reselling them later. The expiration of the Mint's 30 day return policy, assuming no re-release of the coins that are returned, should also ease pressure on the market. Right now it's "catch as catch can" before flippers have to make a decision to return their remaining product or sell it (even selling at a break-even point is preferable to paying postage to the Mint and waiting a month to get your money back). Once that 30 day period ends, the pressure is off, and the number of coins on the market should drop. Combined with increased demand (driven by the numismatic press), this should cause a rise in prices. I would guess that if the mint does not re-release the returns, we'll see a market in the high-30s.
Of course, that's the wall everyone is up against. Sell now for a 20-25% profit with ZERO downside risk (because you can still return them), or hold them for 45-60 days at 100% risk (because you can't return them, and the Mint may decide to re-release the coins if they get enough returns). As you can see, most people are choosing to take their profits now. But remember, every box that is being sold is being sold TO someone. It seems the "Phase II" of the market is going very strong. That tells me plenty of people are willing to take a risk on these, which means *someone* believes in them.
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
<< <i>Never would buy anywhere near that quantity of this issue.
This type of product has never been a good bet.
What you see happening to the market for these is EXACTLY why I don't bet the farm on something like this. >>
You don't have to "bet the farm" on something like this. Just a couple of hogs. I made a 40% return on my investment in less than 20 days ... Can't beat that...
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>What you see happening to the market for these is EXACTLY why I don't bet the farm on something like this >>
7over8 has made a number of excellent points in this thread. Yes, the market on eBay is very tight right now. Spreads are very low. But even the lowest priced seller (Mr. Magoo) is still making a 26.7% return in less than three weeks. Let's not forget that these ARE still profitable.
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
<< <i>What you see happening to the market for these is EXACTLY why I don't bet the farm on something like this >>
7over8 has made a number of excellent points in this thread. Yes, the market on eBay is very tight right now. Spreads are very low. But even the lowest priced seller (Mr. Magoo) is still making a 26.7% return in less than three weeks. Let's not forget that these ARE still profitable. >>
Damn skippy they are....would have been more profitable if a few that hadn't bought hundreds (maybe a few thousand of them) hadn't flooded the market all at once. They were going for close to $30 each when I got back from vacation on Wednesday last week. Now, closer to $20 each, in bulk.
I just sold one set of 50 for $1050 and have another with a bidder for $1050 as well. If the ones who hadn't bought hundreds/thousands hadn't flooded for the quick cash, they likely would have stayed up higher.
<< <i>What you see happening to the market for these is EXACTLY why I don't bet the farm on something like this >>
7over8 has made a number of excellent points in this thread. Yes, the market on eBay is very tight right now. Spreads are very low. But even the lowest priced seller (Mr. Magoo) is still making a 26.7% return in less than three weeks. Let's not forget that these ARE still profitable. >>
Damn skippy they are....would have been more profitable if a few that hadn't bought hundreds (maybe a few thousand of them) hadn't flooded the market all at once. They were going for close to $30 each when I got back from vacation on Wednesday last week. Now, closer to $20 each, in bulk.
I just sold one set of 50 for $1050 and have another with a bidder for $1050 as well. If the ones who hadn't bought hundreds/thousands hadn't flooded for the quick cash, they likely would have stayed up higher. >>
Yup...looks like the prices are stabilizing in the mid 20 range & only 2/3 of the number of auctions compared to last week are ongoing.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
I am with you .......everyone could have done well......$30+ bucks by now easy.
No reason to flood the market, no reason to price them at least 20% below the prevailing market, and in significant quantities.
These guys are flippers, and they'll be flippin those covers in return packages to the USM in a week or two (whatever they have left)........after they destroy the market and leave everyone else with the decision either to assume the risk and hold, or return.
I know we cant control the market, and we wouldnt want to, but those guys were just stupid.
Holding a total of 50 FDCs in 3 unopened boxes doesn't seem like a very big risk to me. Especially since they are eligible for that first strike holy grail. Most people don't know they exist. Just wait until the first strike NGC graded ones hit the market. Not much the rest of us can do about stupid sellers except wait them out. Just think of the sellers that sold 20th anniversary silver sets for $200 or less.
Comments
I eagerly await the one-week sellout of the Washington SHQ FD coin cover.
<< <i>I think the response would be to modify the return policy. >>
Order limits makes more sense. The problem here is that people ordered a lot more than they really wanted in order to speculate on the market. If the expected price jump upon sellout doesn't happen, then the mint might get a lot returned and the ones returning them are going to be the people who ordered the most.
Even if the market on these tanks, I do not think you are going to see people who ordered less than 10 flooding the Mint with returns. It will be the people with cases of them which will be doing the returns.
-Fuzz
<< <i>
<< <i>I think the response would be to modify the return policy. >>
Order limits makes more sense. The problem here is that people ordered a lot more than they really wanted in order to speculate on the market. If the expected price jump upon sellout doesn't happen, then the mint might get a lot returned and the ones returning them are going to be the people who ordered the most.
Even if the market on these tanks, I do not think you are going to see people who ordered less than 10 flooding the Mint with returns. It will be the people with cases of them which will be doing the returns.
-Fuzz >>
remember this is a ten year program and this GW FDCC is the FIRST ISSUE.
Just check the bay for Delaware(first issue) first day coin cover, it brings $40 plus and if I remember the mintage was 100,000.
Presidential FDCC is lot more appealing than states coin cover IMO.
You may not get 3 to 4 times issue price right now, but upside potential is far greater than downside risk.
It can't go below $2, better than state's 50 cents
just my two pennies
david
1. The Mint might fail to properly count the number of items returned, leaving the speculator to pay the difference.
2. The Mint might take 2-3 months to issue a credit for returns, leaving the speculator with credit card interest payments on thousands of dollars in limbo.
I thought it was $2.39.
San Diego, CA
<< <i>I wonder how the Mint might react.
1. The Mint might fail to properly count the number of items returned, leaving the speculator to pay the difference.
2. The Mint might take 2-3 months to issue a credit for returns, leaving the speculator with credit card interest payments on thousands of dollars in limbo. >>
They do #2. I've been told that returns over $300 have to go through "Washington," and unless you file a credit card dispute you do get those interest charges.
<< <i>It can't go below $2, better than state's 50 cents
I thought it was $2.39.
Nope, just $2 as the stamp has already been cancelled.
Also I agree with the prior poster that it has only been a few weeks and give these items a chance. I know we all want instant profits but this is a long program and it has just started.
-Fuzz
Adam
<< <i>I think that people need to see a few graded exaples of these to realize what these might be worth.......Just an opinion. Adam >>
Coming Soon
<< <i>
<< <i>I think that people need to see a few graded exaples of these to realize what these might be worth.......Just an opinion. Adam >>
Coming Soon
ngc or pcgs
I am debating, if I do it will definitely be NGC. I like their new currency like slab.
That is a rip off, they take 39c right away. But this will be the only cover with the 39c stamp since Postal Rate will go up the middle of next month. Maybe the next cover will be 39c if they back date them also.
San Diego, CA
Coming Soon
I hope so.......I think people are really not giving these enough credit.
Adam
They won't do anything about the returns. This is the Govt.
How many people might return. 10 or 20. It's a non issue.
Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up!
Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
Steve
Stick a fork in these covers, they are DONE.
<< <i>Stick a fork in these covers, they are DONE. >>
not yet, it's time for phaze ii : the error find
<< <i>Like I said before, sellers need to be carefule about listing enormous quamtities that the market cant absorb quickly enough..
Stick a fork in these covers, they are DONE. >>
Looks like sellers didn't consult you first
Not even close!
I'm selling 1-3 a day at $24 + $7 Ship just out of a 50 Unit.
When Mr. Magoo is done, prices will lift.
These were so cheap in the first place!
Steve
No consult necessary to be classified as an IDIOT.
That's what I basically classify those trying to flip ten's of cases at $200 below market when they commenced selling.....
Let's see. I know of some large returns already. How about you Pitch?
Haven't seen any yet.....
The one i did have sold for 22.10
The one up on the bay has no bids..............
i agree the market seems saturated right now.
that is why I tried to list 1 at a time..............
Steve
<< <i>who has the first NGC soft plastic holdered Cover for sale????
Haven't seen any yet..... >>
I have 5 at NGC that are listed as scheduled for grading.
They were receied on Monday 23rd.
These won't grade high (64-65).
I also have an auction up that ends Monday evening and Tuesday morning looking for $24 a cover with no interest yet.
These will not be listed again for a while unless price moves up or I decide to buy the Wives gold proofs.
Joe
7over8 is right: sellers have placed enormous pressure on the market. From where I stand, it looks like everything depends on the US Mint: if enough orders are returned to convice the Mint to reopen sales, then it'll be disasterous. Just the psycological impact of a re-release of a sold out product will be catastrophic. This HAS happened before, both with the Delaware FDCCs and with the Ocean in View FDCCs. That is the main thing buyers and sellers need to be careful of. Assuming the Mint does NOT re-release these sets, we are looking at a three stage market:
Phase I--the flippers who bought hundreds or thousands of sets. The flippers are selling sets in boxes of 50, in lots of 10 and 20, and so on.
Phase II--the "wholesalers" who missed out at the Mint but think they see a really good deal. These are the people who are buying in quantity from the flippers.
Phase III--retail, end-customers. These are the people who either want the coins for themselves, or to give as gifts to relatives.
I have sold a number of coins in lots of 10-50, so I believe the "wholesale" section of the market is going strong. Good numismatic press should increase the demand from end-users, which will also increase the demand from wholesalers hoping to profit by buying these in bulk and reselling them later. The expiration of the Mint's 30 day return policy, assuming no re-release of the coins that are returned, should also ease pressure on the market. Right now it's "catch as catch can" before flippers have to make a decision to return their remaining product or sell it (even selling at a break-even point is preferable to paying postage to the Mint and waiting a month to get your money back). Once that 30 day period ends, the pressure is off, and the number of coins on the market should drop. Combined with increased demand (driven by the numismatic press), this should cause a rise in prices. I would guess that if the mint does not re-release the returns, we'll see a market in the high-30s.
Of course, that's the wall everyone is up against. Sell now for a 20-25% profit with ZERO downside risk (because you can still return them), or hold them for 45-60 days at 100% risk (because you can't return them, and the Mint may decide to re-release the coins if they get enough returns). As you can see, most people are choosing to take their profits now. But remember, every box that is being sold is being sold TO someone. It seems the "Phase II" of the market is going very strong. That tells me plenty of people are willing to take a risk on these, which means *someone* believes in them.
<< <i>Hmmm.
Let's see. I know of some large returns already. How about you Pitch? >>
Just out of curiosity, what did you do with the hundreds of boxes you ordered?
This type of product has never been a good bet.
What you see happening to the market for these is EXACTLY why I don't bet the farm on something like this.
<< <i>Never would buy anywhere near that quantity of this issue.
This type of product has never been a good bet.
What you see happening to the market for these is EXACTLY why I don't bet the farm on something like this. >>
You don't have to "bet the farm" on something like this. Just a couple of hogs. I made a 40% return on my investment in less than 20 days ... Can't beat that...
<< <i>What you see happening to the market for these is EXACTLY why I don't bet the farm on something like this >>
7over8 has made a number of excellent points in this thread. Yes, the market on eBay is very tight right now. Spreads are very low. But even the lowest priced seller (Mr. Magoo) is still making a 26.7% return in less than three weeks. Let's not forget that these ARE still profitable.
<< <i>
<< <i>What you see happening to the market for these is EXACTLY why I don't bet the farm on something like this >>
7over8 has made a number of excellent points in this thread. Yes, the market on eBay is very tight right now. Spreads are very low. But even the lowest priced seller (Mr. Magoo) is still making a 26.7% return in less than three weeks. Let's not forget that these ARE still profitable. >>
Damn skippy they are....would have been more profitable if a few that hadn't bought hundreds (maybe a few thousand of them) hadn't flooded the market all at once.
They were going for close to $30 each when I got back from vacation on Wednesday last week. Now, closer to $20 each, in bulk.
I just sold one set of 50 for $1050 and have another with a bidder for $1050 as well. If the ones who hadn't bought hundreds/thousands hadn't flooded for the quick cash, they likely would have stayed up higher.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>What you see happening to the market for these is EXACTLY why I don't bet the farm on something like this >>
7over8 has made a number of excellent points in this thread. Yes, the market on eBay is very tight right now. Spreads are very low. But even the lowest priced seller (Mr. Magoo) is still making a 26.7% return in less than three weeks. Let's not forget that these ARE still profitable. >>
Damn skippy they are....would have been more profitable if a few that hadn't bought hundreds (maybe a few thousand of them) hadn't flooded the market all at once.
They were going for close to $30 each when I got back from vacation on Wednesday last week. Now, closer to $20 each, in bulk.
I just sold one set of 50 for $1050 and have another with a bidder for $1050 as well. If the ones who hadn't bought hundreds/thousands hadn't flooded for the quick cash, they likely would have stayed up higher. >>
Yup...looks like the prices are stabilizing in the mid 20 range & only 2/3 of the number of auctions compared to last week are ongoing.
I am with you .......everyone could have done well......$30+ bucks by now easy.
No reason to flood the market, no reason to price them at least 20% below the prevailing market, and in significant quantities.
These guys are flippers, and they'll be flippin those covers in return packages to the USM in a week or two (whatever they have left)........after they destroy the market and leave everyone else with the decision either to assume the risk and hold, or return.
I know we cant control the market, and we wouldnt want to, but those guys were just stupid.
However, be careful not to compare these with the enormously popular Silver Eagle Sets, these aren't even a tenth as popular.
<< <i>However, be careful not to compare these with the enormously popular Silver Eagle Sets, these aren't even a tenth as popular. >>
Yet.
However, historically, any numismatic - philatelic based products have been flops.