Do you people really listen to someone who posts obviously cut and pasted material, then lapses into some ongoing, blabbering text about the market which is punctuated by misspellings, syntax errors, and poor punctuation? That doesn't sound much like the post that would come from a true, market professional. Not that one would come here to find that. enjoy
<< <i>Do you people really listen to someone who posts obviously cut and pasted material, then lapses into some ongoing, blabbering text about the market which is punctuated by misspellings, syntax errors, and poor punctuation? That doesn't sound much like the post that would come from a true, market professional. Not that one would come here to find that. enjoy >>
The way I figure it is that no two professionals can agree either how much more wrong can the barely literate be? You can find insight and truth in a lot of places.
Excellent grammar, hubird. It almost seemed like a comma splice in the second sentence but no problem. Did you have something to add to the conversation?
It's interesting that you mention the election, because if the election will be a factor in the markets, just which direction do you think that indicates for stocks, gold, bonds and cash?
Normally, if the Republicans held the Oval Office and most of Congress, you would expect some manipulation for sure, particularly with the price of oil and interest rates. But with the Democrats pulling stunts like declaring that Turkey massacred the Armenians in 1915 in order to cause trouble for our supply routes in Iraq in order to make it harder to prosecute the war, what financial manipulations are likely?
Sure, Bernake could keep lowering rates and creating money, but that only fuels gold and inflation pressures while stoking the flagging economy. And what's-his-name, Paulson can't seem to place much in the way of new Treasuries because China and Russia and Saudi are starting to see their holdings as real leverage towards U.S. policy. What manipulations would help which party? See my point? It's getting harder to tell who's a player, and whose motives are being served.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
It just seems odd that a post which supposedly is written by one person actually seems to be written by two different people. The difference in writing style would seem to point that out. That's just the way I read it. Your experience may be different.
<< <i>It's interesting that you mention the election, because if the election will be a factor in the markets, just which direction do you think that indicates for stocks, gold, bonds and cash? >>
The dollar is likely to get a boost after the 2008 elections (may have to wait until Jan. 20, 2009) regardless of who wins. The powers that be abroad have no confidence in Bush-Cheney and are waiting for a regieme change. Until then, don't expect to much strengthening in the dollar. Or so I am told.
The question wasn't so much about spelling or such. That was just a tipoff. I was just wondering why someone on this forum seemed to feel the need to pass theirself off using someone else's words. They are certainly entitled to do so, if they wish. I'll never try to bluff other forum members myself. Onward...
I guess it been a long week but what is hubird talking about. I have read through the last couple of pages and cannot find the post he is referring to?
“Do you people really listen to someone who posts obviously cut and pasted material, then lapses into some ongoing, blabbering text about the market which is punctuated by misspellings, syntax errors, and poor punctuation? That doesn't sound much like the post that would come from a true, market professional. Not that one would come here to find that. enjoy
hubird, not wanting to cause trouble, wanders off to wonder why someone on this forum needs to pass theirself off using words written by someone else.”
USA bonds have rallied big time this week. IE. 3 month bills were 4% on Monday and under 3% today. Also the 10 yr was yielding 4.70% on Monday and 4.40% today. This has caused the yields on US debt to be lower than European debt. Money tends to flow where yields are the highest. Although I have tried to give the US dollar the benefit of the doubt, it is apparent that the US govt is very comfortable with a lower dollar. There is potential for a rapid decline in the dollar in coming weeks. This may or may not help gold, as all asset classes--save bonds--may get a good a$$ whooping.
<< <i>IE. 3 month bills were 4% on Monday and under 3% today. Also the 10 yr was yielding 4.70% on Monday and 4.40% today. This has caused the yields on US debt to be lower than European debt. Money tends to flow where yields are the highest. >>
Rise in bonds corresponded to the decline in equities, perhaps as money flowed out of equities into bonds. But an outflow of dollars from Treasuries into foreign bonds would cause the price of US bonds to fall and yields to rise until there is equilibrium. The outflow might continue even if US rates exceed foreign rates if other factors impacting the dollar convince investors to accept lower yields in stronger curriencies (ie appreciation in the exchange rate making up for the lower cupon).
Edited to add: the scenario in the last sentence is the kind of thing that one historically associated with third world countries with unstable currencies and hyperinflation.
Yes, I know what it is (BTW, awesome thread). I have an ARM resetting in a few months tied to LIBOR. Just wondering what you learned folks think this portends for LIBOR six months outs. Thanks.
It's recession fear. Silver is a commodity and in a slowdown there will be less of a drawdown in supplies. Frankly I suspect this is at least slightly overblown since production would plummet as well and a big recession is improbable but silver tracks the stock market to some degree.
Gold is acting as a hedge against fear. This is less overblown.
First, I think the public is still asleep at the wheel. In the 70’s these things were different, the media was not aliened with the government, and Wall Street, the truth was published, and there was REAL investigative reporting. The mainstream press has become just another socialists arm that believes common folks are idiots that cannot make good decisions for themselves.
Second, sliver has always been a middleclass investment, and even if the truth were out about the real inflation numbers, who knows how much extra money the middle class could muster to buy in?
Third there are many alternatives now in the form of ETF’S etc. that folks can invest in rather than buying the physical metal. GLD has nearly 14 billion in gold and sells now at $75.70 per share, where SLV sells at $134.50. The news reports on gold constantly, and silver not too much, so the gold funds are at least in the news, and easy to buy.
We have had several discussions on taking possession of your hard assets, so we don’t need to go there, but Joe Six pack knows nothing about this.
Third, and most important, all of “US” now get most of our information about what is really happening from the “underground” but average Americans still believe in the Government, mainstream press, and Wall street. Most of us have stopped believing that the inflation rate is 2.5%, that you can trust S&P and Moody’s to rate your investments, that you can always find some fool to buy your debt even if you have no way to repay it and create billions more each day.
Silver appears to be a screaming buy here, and I am personally load with the stuff, so I hope it moves, but who knows.
You can bet your bottom dollar that the gold and silver ETF's do not hold 100% physical metal or even close to it. Consider them just another extension of the cartel's manipulation of metal prices. I would not want to be in either of those when the balloon goes up to instantaneously find "metallic" physical metal...rather than "paper" physical metal.
<< <i>You can bet your bottom dollar that the gold and silver ETF's do not hold 100% physical metal or even close to it. Consider them just another extension of the cartel's manipulation of metal prices. I would not want to be in either of those when the balloon goes up to instantaneously find "metallic" physical metal...rather than "paper" physical metal.
roadrunner >>
I agree that in a doomsday scenario , you are better off with physical metal ,but the cartels (if you believe in them ) will do whatever it takes to prevent doomsday. The flip side of the argument is that when "the balloon goes up" there will be the mad scramble to find physical metal and it will act like a "short squeeze" and metals prices will take off. In that scenario it is easier to trade ETFs than physical metal. I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal.
"...common folks are idiots that cannot make good decisions for themselves."
Like taking ARMs? The interesting evolution to current thinking, ala Katrina, is that the government is responsible for everything. People seem to be unable, as a common body, to take care of themselves and their families and the common thinking appears to be that the common folk want it to be the responsiblity of the government to keep them whole. Maybe that is just a phenomena of the urban dwellers but it does seem that we are turning to government more and more. Or, maybe we are just seeing a response to the slippage in the middle class state of affairs. Even the slightest extreem weather event or infrastructure failure brings out the call for a National Emergency or a call to declare a Federal or State Disaster Area. With communications so effecient now and so many splintered special interests, any blip beyond the flat line of day to day living is treated as a catastrophic event. I hear it more and more now..."If we can save one person with this law then it is worth it." Really? 42,000 US people died in traffic deaths last year, that's about 3500 a month. Is this a Federal Disaster? Why doesn't someone do something about it?Traffic fatalities 2006
Maybe there is some substance to that thought, maybe the govt. should have protected nodoc/ARM people from themselves or more accurately, from the predators. I believe that is what people could be pissed about if they wanted something to gripe on, the free roaming predatory lenders. While they are getting pissed, they could also consider the 20% interest they are paying on their credit cards...why doesn't someone do something about that before it gets worse? The more we ask for protection, the more we seem to be reaching into social welfare as a federal government obligation. Just where should the line be?
Socialism should exist where extreme need exists among the general population. Programs like SS, WPA, CCC, may seem socialistic but there was extreem need in the general population and the government stepped in and resolved the problem, as best as it could at the time. There is a fine line to walk between providing for the general welfare and being socialistic. It doesn't seem realistic to expect the federal government to provide for the welfare of every subgroup and what not that may demand relief. We do believe in benevolent governments, that's what democracy is about. We do want to be benevolent to ourselves, right? Isnt that the whole idea, that we will take care of ourselves by virtue of our representative government?
This is not a republican or democrat or independent issue, it's more an issue of defining the substance of our govenment and what we expect our government to be responsible for. Do we want the federal government to respond to every flood, every hurricane, every bridge collapse, every anomalie, or broken toe? What do we want? So we want socialistic health care aka socialized medicine? That would put the MD's on the same wage rate schedule as we put the trades for federal project work since they would be, in effect, working for the government, for the greater good. If the practice of medicine was a federal program and all, there seems like there could be a point where socialism stiffles creativity and excellence by dulling the rewards for exceptional merit. We might miss the next Dr. DeBakey. Dr. DeBakey We could have a situation where the private practice of medicine would become a public practice. Where are we willing to draw the line?
Oh yes..."Silver appears to be a screaming buy here". You always wonder with silver...It'll bleed you to death one year and make you rich the next...which year will this be?
I know there are a lot of parts to this diatribe that could be enthusiastically debated but the more interesting question is: What are the effects of socialism on our economic predictions?
I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal.
Might have been too quick on bailing on silver. It appears poised to explode considering all the efforts being taken to keep it in a tight box of $13.50 to $13.80. I'd be bullish right now. As far as Cartels go, yeah I believe in them. Even the FED has come out publically on more than one occasion and talked about managing the gold price. Cartels? That's another name for business as usual in all the major markets.
The first time it is proven that those ETF's don't command 100% physical metal, only a very few will be able to get out before things go crunch. 30 seconds or even 3 seconds won't be good enough. If the ETF's are just bookies taking bets shouldn't they at least come out and say so? Think about it. Do you think the ETF can move physical silver any faster than Joe 6-pack if the need to sell mass quantities exist? It will be like anything else and only be as liquid as the buyers. And at that point the buyers will want the physical metal before they fork over their cash. 30 seconds it isn't.
Sure they have the physical. Just like the USA still owns $8000 tons of gold.
Don Hays was a NASA engineer in the 60's, putting people on the moon. He got into the investment business in 1970 or so. Thinking like an engineer, it was difficult for him to forecast the stock market. He built a model which he still uses today with a tremendous history of success. He is a regular on CNBC and the like. His model says that there are three variables effect the stock market. Not 4, not 2. Monetary conditions, psychology, and valuation. Since he retired and started his own money management firm, the S AND P 500 is at a loss, while HIS long term growth portfolio has doubled. Not too shabby. His outlook: the stock market will double by 2008.... His website looks at many things, including gold/euro comparision, etc.
Hays believes that gold and silver will be in a narrow trading range for a long time.........
A forum flashback to April 2005. Dow was just over 10,000. Gold around $425. The above post is rather striking. Few gave gold a chance and the derivatives mess was still well-concealed.
Don Hays needs another 6,000+ in the Dow by next April to make his prediction come true. Wonder what he is predicting today?
I hope gold continues in the "small trading range" it has occupied for the past 2-1/2 years. It has worked rather well.
Gold......it's not rocket science. Hays was right about gold for about 5 months until Oct 2005 when it started its march towards $500, $600 and $700. Gold seems to do anything but stay in a "tight" trading range.
<< <i>The mainstream press has become just another socialists arm that believes common folks are idiots that cannot make good decisions for themselves. >>
After looking at the level of debt in this country and those who voted Bush a second term,
I tend to agree with them, Present company excepted,
<< <i>I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal.
Might have been too quick on bailing on silver. It appears poised to explode considering all the efforts being taken to keep it in a tight box of $13.50 to $13.80. I'd be bullish right now. As far as Cartels go, yeah I believe in them. Even the FED has come out publically on more than one occasion and talked about managing the gold price. Cartels? That's another name for business as usual in all the major markets.
The first time it is proven that those ETF's don't command 100% physical metal, only a very few will be able to get out before things go crunch. 30 seconds or even 3 seconds won't be good enough. If the ETF's are just bookies taking bets shouldn't they at least come out and say so? Think about it. Do you think the ETF can move physical silver any faster than Joe 6-pack if the need to sell mass quantities exist? It will be like anything else and only be as liquid as the buyers. And at that point the buyers will want the physical metal before they fork over their cash. 30 seconds it isn't.
Sure they have the physical. Just like the USA still owns $8000 tons of gold.
roadrunner >>
The high on Friday was 13.97 and the low 13.28, the ETF trades a little lower than the spot price (for reasons I dont understand). A lot of REAL cash can be made trading this range. I still have confidence in the ETFs and hope that I never get proven wrong.
<< <i>I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal.
Might have been too quick on bailing on silver. It appears poised to explode considering all the efforts being taken to keep it in a tight box of $13.50 to $13.80. I'd be bullish right now. As far as Cartels go, yeah I believe in them. Even the FED has come out publically on more than one occasion and talked about managing the gold price. Cartels? That's another name for business as usual in all the major markets.
The first time it is proven that those ETF's don't command 100% physical metal, only a very few will be able to get out before things go crunch. 30 seconds or even 3 seconds won't be good enough. If the ETF's are just bookies taking bets shouldn't they at least come out and say so? Think about it. Do you think the ETF can move physical silver any faster than Joe 6-pack if the need to sell mass quantities exist? It will be like anything else and only be as liquid as the buyers. And at that point the buyers will want the physical metal before they fork over their cash. 30 seconds it isn't.
Sure they have the physical. Just like the USA still owns $8000 tons of gold.
roadrunner >>
That would be true, but in today's controlled markets nothing will settle...or move for that matter up or down like it did in 1987. Programmed selling took the DOW down over 20% in one day. Now there are are all kinds of "safety nets" in place to stop a free-fall. RR are there the same safety nets for EFT's? ...if not then I am on board with you on this one! :-)
<< <i>I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal.
Might have been too quick on bailing on silver. It appears poised to explode considering all the efforts being taken to keep it in a tight box of $13.50 to $13.80. I'd be bullish right now. As far as Cartels go, yeah I believe in them. Even the FED has come out publically on more than one occasion and talked about managing the gold price. Cartels? That's another name for business as usual in all the major markets.
The first time it is proven that those ETF's don't command 100% physical metal, only a very few will be able to get out before things go crunch. 30 seconds or even 3 seconds won't be good enough. If the ETF's are just bookies taking bets shouldn't they at least come out and say so? Think about it. Do you think the ETF can move physical silver any faster than Joe 6-pack if the need to sell mass quantities exist? It will be like anything else and only be as liquid as the buyers. And at that point the buyers will want the physical metal before they fork over their cash. 30 seconds it isn't.
Sure they have the physical. Just like the USA still owns $8000 tons of gold.
roadrunner >>
Will never happen. You are leaving a ton of money on the table if you dont take advantage of the "phantom" (LOL) EFTs. When trading the SLV I dont have to settle for the 95% that the smelter will offer. Complain about "paper" all you want, but like it or not, it is real and will be here long after you and I.
I agree that one can make money on the silver ETF and get profits with "real" paper money. And until the herd runs for the exits all at once when physical silver is finally proved to be in very short supply, the ETF will "work."
People were saying the same thing about ENRON being indestructable. The ETF system is only as good as the system that monitors it. Hence to me, it is inconceivable that there won't be a scandal with the ETF's down the road.
<< <i>This is not an appropriate topic in the U.S. Coin Forum. When PCGS adds a "Bullion" Forum, feel free to post away >>
there's MANY U.S. coins, of which have been discussed in this thread that are viewed as "Bullion". if you don't like this thread, i've got an idea... move along to another.
<< <i>This is not an appropriate topic in the U.S. Coin Forum. When PCGS adds a "Bullion" Forum, feel free to post away.
In the meantime, most of us would rather discuss COINS.
Mike (Coppernicus) >>
There are lots and lots of threads to discuss coins.
If you don't think the price of gold, silver, and other precious metals as well economics effect coins and numismatics overall, then you are missing a huge point.
This is only one thread and it's been a wealth of knowledge. With all due respect, no one is forcing you to read nor bother to post to it.
Cheers!
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
The mint sells mostly bullion silver and coins for premiums. And a large % of the posts at the Forum are about such bullion coins. Seems to me that the price trends of gold and silver are very pertinent here, if anything to help protect the buyers. In fact so pertinent that the seller (ie the US mint) shutdown gold coining operations recently due to the rising pog. Not pertinent???
When you sell your gold what do to take in kind? Please dont tell me "paper".
Correct. I trade back and forth from generic $20 Saints and Libs into better gold depending on which is more underpriced at the time. Lately I've been moving out of my remaining 61-62 $20's and into some better 64 and 65 generic gold pieces. Nearly all of my "bullionesque" gold is in US generics and not AGE's or other pure bullion coins. In fact I've never owned a single AGE yet. Maybe someday. MS63-64 Saints are about as close to bullion as I usually like to get.
And when you sell your paper ETF shares I assume you end up with paper FRN's in kind? And if ever or when physical precious metal is being demanded for barter/trade/cash substitute, how will the ETF get you your physical silver?
Actually RR both parties in this ETF discussion are correct depending on where they are in their level of investment.
Most all of us got to the bullion stage after building our coin collections. With some decent annual funds, and some aggressive buying, one seems to end up at bullion accumulation after many years, simply because one has nowhere else to go.
That said, then where does one go as storage and other things become a problem?
My feeling here is that beginning investors should always buy hard assets and take possession of those for their basic protection, but at a certain level buying and trading the ETF’S become a great alternative simply because of speed, storage, shipping and handling, and commission issues.
Yes it is possible to pay a little more per ounce in an ETF than the ETF actually has, but it is also possible to pay less.
Here is an example, SLV”s bars are now valued at the following as per their month end:
$2.0B Total Net Assets as of 9/30/07, and as of Friday their total market capitalization was $1.9 billion. So the market value of the shares stays very close to the asset value.
This asset situation in the larger PM ETF’S is very unlike nearly all other shares traded on the exchanges. How many investments can any of us name, besides bonds, C.D.’S etc. that trade at NET BOOK ASSETT VALUE?
I suppose these fund managers could be lying, perhaps all those pictures, of all those bars in vaults are merely pictures, and there is no Gold or silver, but it is pretty unlikely that the bigger investors would not have seen the real bars.
AS to Coppernicus point, I think even the PCGS management might be amazed at who now comes here to read this tread. This tread has created many, many, new collectors that would have never thought of collecting coins that simply came here to check out our thinking. Many national writers and economists have visited just to check the thought process here.
Be it luck or fate, our poor little thread here has hashed out many of the problems that face our economy and that relate not only to coin and capital preservation but to wider issue as well.
AS we all know, coin collecting is the hobby of Kings, and certainly the hobby of those that have excess capital. If you cannot pay your mortgage, credit cards, etc. you are not going to be in our hobby for long!
<< <i>When PCGS adds a "Bullion" Forum, feel free to post away >>
No way. This topic is clearly labeled so those who want to avoid can do so by excercising their free will.
I think I've posted to this behemoth of a thread about 4 times (including today) but I read it every day there's an update to my subscription. It's the one thread that keeps me looking on the US coin forum. Without it I'm sure I never would have maintained enough interest in US coins (I like darkside) to start my 7070. With the 7070 when I periodically buy a coin about a third of them I'm cracking out of a PCGS slab. Someday I will go to sell and will have them re-slabbed thus generating a nice chunk o' fees for the PCGS gods. All for the price of a few electrons to our hosts.
To keep this 'on topic' for the thread, these are my two latest books I've been reading: The History of Money a very nice little history lesson, with a last chapter proposing the next step in the future of money is digital money/credits. The other one that I'm reading (I'm on page 12) is Gold: The Once and Future Money that I bought to read about the historical usage of gold. Somehow, as I strongly suspect from the title -- I'm thinking it draws a much different conclusion than the first book I linked.
BTW I was at Ciruit City last night getting a new printer and the guy in front of me was paying for 2 video games with cash. The total was $126 (!) and the checkout guy asked the buyer for his name, phone number and address, all of which he put in the computer. Much to my husband's embarrassment I asked why he was collecting all that information and the kid told me 'It's policy now with any cash purchase above $100. It's happening everywhere now". I was absolutely floored by both the fact it was happening and the fact that the customer, the checkout guy and my husband all thought I was wierd for thinking it was wierd! Maybe the digital money guy is right, and no purchase over $100 will ever be untraceable again.
Just venting I guess, but I for one look forward to this thread (minus a few derailments here and there) and find it quite useful in terms of numismatic considerations (most of my 'extensive' --haha-- gold collection is in darkside bullionesque coins) and beyond. I would be very dissappointed if the thread went away either due to the unappreciative (who can skip it) or the occasional borderline postings.
If we could only get a spell checker here it would be perfect
Since folk seem to be looking in here from other parts of the spectrum, it seems appropriate to post a digest guide to the daily highlights with a short commentary.
"If we could only get a spell checker here it would be perfect" YES! Oh yes.
"MS63-64 Saints are about as close to bullion as I usually like to get." YES! It does seem to be a logical conclusion and they're beautiful. There's cooler pre '33 and dated gold but the Saints have their own ball stadium...almost a no brainer at $100-$200 or so over melt in pcgs 63 on Heritage. And, oh yes, they are beautiful, particularly the no mottos with that big ol' sun. If you can stay away from the flat nose and toe variety, you can get a pretty nice coin for not much numismatic premium. When you're bored and don't know which way to go, get a saint and all will be well.
"In the meantime, most of us would rather discuss COINS." No coins here, sir. Please move along, and don't forget to see the egress just up there on the right.
"My feeling here is that beginning investors should always buy hard assets and take possession of those for their basic protection, but at a certain level buying and trading the ETF’S become a great alternative simply because of speed, storage, shipping and handling, and commission issues." Pretty hard to argue with that statement.
This is not an appropriate topic in the U.S. Coin Forum. When PCGS adds a "Bullion" Forum, feel free to post away.
In the meantime, most of us would rather discuss COINS.
News Flash - In 1986, the United States began a Bullion COIN program, and bullion pricing is entirely within the scope of U.S. Coins. Update your calender, please.
If you find the subject uninteresting, start a thread of your own and dive right in - nobody's stopping you.
I've found this thread to contain many good resources and I find it to be one of the most valuable threads in the forum.
When you sell your gold what do to take in kind? Please dont tell me "paper".
I am convinced that damaging (and unreported) inflation is here to stay.
Several comments here, in addition to other sources that I follow had convinced me that leaving retirement money in mutual funds, even T-Bill funds is a losing proposition, and that the money is dead (and shrinking) unless you pull it out for re-deployment with a 10% early withdrawal penalty and the taxes on top of that.
My thought was, that a 10% inflation rate (or higher) will reduce my holdings significantly before retirement if I didn't put it out of the system's reach, i.e., by averaging into gold and silver.
When I ran through the numbers on form 8606, it was simply a total disaster. I recognize that the money has not yet been taxed, but it floored me that they lump all tax deductible accounts into one tax report, so that you can't separate IRA funds from SEP/IRA funds in order to minimize the gains in one or the other. Of course, then I realized that the gains don't matter anyway, because it all gets taxed. It doesn't make sense to withdraw it, get taxed and then put it into another investment that will eventually get taxed again.
When it appeared that I would lose upwards of 50% of my capital just by removing the money from the retirment vehicles, I gave up, got mad, and redeployed it agressively into ETFs and Oil stocks. I figured that if half the money is not really mine, I might as well speculate hard and fast.
I feel confident that our government will not let me down in the area of inflation. The biggest question I have is not whether my stock choices were correct, but whether or not I will be able to finesse the money out of the accounts at the time of my choosing.
What a sad state of affairs!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
When it appeared that I would lose upwards of 50% of my capital just by removing the money from the retirment vehicles, I gave up, got mad, and redeployed it agressively into ETFs and Oil stocks. I figured that if half the money is not really mine, I might as well speculate hard and fast.
Jmski52, I've been having similar thoughts with my 401K. While my company has contributed 50% of it along the way, most of it could be a goner down the road. Fortunately the option was added a couple of years ago to be able to go outside the core fund with up to 50% of the total account value. And like you, I'm "speculating" hard and fast in PM's and other hard assets with that 50%. My diversified gold fund has done fine since I started, but the best is yet to come. I'm sure I'm the only one in our entire company that owns a gold fund in their 401K.
The real problem is what to do with the core 50% that gives you very few "safe" options.
1.Growth stock funds in your choice of mid-cap, small-cap, large-cap 2.Retirement fund mixes of stocks/bonds based on your age. These are typically heavily leveraged towards stocks. 3.Bond index funds 4.US Treasury money market fund 5.Stable Value Fund (SIC's, GIC's, BIC's, etc)
Of course choices 4 and 5 are not guaranteed by the US Govt nor the company running the 401K. These are all at full market risk and only as good as the banks, insurance companies and govt's that issued them. No warm fuzzy feeling there!
For my money I'd rather play this safe right now but do not see any of the above as being "safe." Treasuries are linked to interest rates and the USDI which are anything but stable. Stable value fund could be littered with illiquid funds that could kill your returns. Growth stocks and bonds at the present? Well enough said. For a few years I did have significant dollars in the Stable Value Fund but it finally hit me that the thing could be littered with derivative junk. Whose to say? While they aren't called SIV's, they look awfully similar. And bonds, well they HAD a nice run.
When the stock market finally shakes out I'd be happy to plunk down some money for the longer run. But not right now. You'd think there'd be some better alternatives in these 401K's to honestly protect one's dollars. Why not an Energy Fund for example? Or how about an International Fund that has significant exposure to Asian Companies? (my 401K does have an International Fund but its exposure is almost entirely to Europe). Europe is in the same boat we are right now...maybe worse.
Right now it's protection rather than growth that I prefer....and I don't see it. It will likely come after 401K's and pension funds blow up....but that will be too late for this round. And when you ask these pointed questions to the 401K managers or experts you get the same reply......"the returns are for the long haul and not short term trading. You'll get better returns over the long haul." Any 401Ker not hanging in for years at a crack is a dirty "speculator." Yet these very same companies make their money trading daily and wouldn't be caught dead long term in this type of market with their own fortunes.
"providing for the general welfare and being socialistic."
Unfortunately the Constitution does not state that the Government PROVIDE for the General welfare.
It states that it will PROMOTE the General welfare.
They do not mean the same thing.
That is why things are so screwed up, the SOCIALISTS have distorted the Constitutions wording with lies that everyone quotes as some kind of truth!!
All my years of watching gold as an avid gold bug leads me to believe that $1200 in the next 3 years or sooner is an easy mark. Fiat money never leads to any good in the long run. Study the Fall of the Roman empire and note the parallels. There is currently $49000-$80000 in USD currency floating around out there for every ounce of GOLD in the National Reserve. Gold is dirt cheap IMHO.
Roadrunner, I have been going through the same scenario with my 401K. Very limited options. However, one of the choices in my plan is an international emerging markets.... which would at least be out of Europe. But can certainly be hit with it's own set of problems...
Right now, I'm about 50% in the fixed account and 40% in the international emerging markets, and around 10% left in some misc. US stock fund... but sure wishing I could have more options!
Comments
<< <i>Do you people really listen to someone who posts obviously cut and pasted material, then lapses into some ongoing, blabbering text about the market which is punctuated by misspellings, syntax errors, and poor punctuation? That doesn't sound much like the post that would come from a true, market professional. Not that one would come here to find that.
The way I figure it is that no two professionals can
agree either how much more wrong can the barely
literate be?
lot of places.
Normally, if the Republicans held the Oval Office and most of Congress, you would expect some manipulation for sure, particularly with the price of oil and interest rates. But with the Democrats pulling stunts like declaring that Turkey massacred the Armenians in 1915 in order to cause trouble for our supply routes in Iraq in order to make it harder to prosecute the war, what financial manipulations are likely?
Sure, Bernake could keep lowering rates and creating money, but that only fuels gold and inflation pressures while stoking the flagging economy. And what's-his-name, Paulson can't seem to place much in the way of new Treasuries because China and Russia and Saudi are starting to see their holdings as real leverage towards U.S. policy. What manipulations would help which party? See my point? It's getting harder to tell who's a player, and whose motives are being served.
I knew it would happen.
can not doo veri wel on ekonomik prodiktons. Som
ov the dumest peepol eye know are ritch.
Camelot
<< <i>It's interesting that you mention the election, because if the election will be a factor in the markets, just which direction do you think that indicates for stocks, gold, bonds and cash? >>
The dollar is likely to get a boost after the 2008 elections (may have to wait until Jan. 20, 2009) regardless of who wins. The powers that be abroad have no confidence in Bush-Cheney and are waiting for a regieme change. Until then, don't expect to much strengthening in the dollar. Or so I am told.
CG
“Do you people really listen to someone who posts obviously cut and pasted material, then lapses into some ongoing, blabbering text about the market which is punctuated by misspellings, syntax errors, and poor punctuation? That doesn't sound much like the post that would come from a true, market professional. Not that one would come here to find that. enjoy
hubird, not wanting to cause trouble, wanders off to wonder why someone on this forum needs to pass theirself off using words written by someone else.”
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>IE. 3 month bills were 4% on Monday and under 3% today. Also the 10 yr was yielding 4.70% on Monday and 4.40% today. This has caused the yields on US debt to be lower than European debt. Money tends to flow where yields are the highest. >>
Rise in bonds corresponded to the decline in equities, perhaps as money flowed out of equities into bonds. But an outflow of dollars from Treasuries into foreign bonds would cause the price of US bonds to fall and yields to rise until there is equilibrium. The outflow might continue even if US rates exceed foreign rates if other factors impacting the dollar convince investors to accept lower yields in stronger curriencies (ie appreciation in the exchange rate making up for the lower cupon).
Edited to add: the scenario in the last sentence is the kind of thing that one historically associated with third world countries with unstable currencies and hyperinflation.
CG
Yes, I know what it is (BTW, awesome thread). I have an ARM resetting in a few months tied to LIBOR. Just wondering what you learned folks think this portends for LIBOR six months outs. Thanks.
FloridaBill
<< <i>So why does my silver keep crashing >>
It's recession fear. Silver is a commodity and in a slowdown there
will be less of a drawdown in supplies. Frankly I suspect this is at
least slightly overblown since production would plummet as well and
a big recession is improbable but silver tracks the stock market to
some degree.
Gold is acting as a hedge against fear. This is less overblown.
Good question?
Here are some possible explanations.
First, I think the public is still asleep at the wheel.
In the 70’s these things were different, the media was not aliened with the government, and Wall Street, the truth was published, and there was REAL investigative reporting. The mainstream press has become just another socialists arm that believes common folks are idiots that cannot make good decisions for themselves.
Second, sliver has always been a middleclass investment, and even if the truth were out about the real inflation numbers, who knows how much extra money the middle class could muster to buy in?
Third there are many alternatives now in the form of ETF’S etc. that folks can invest in rather than buying the physical metal. GLD has nearly 14 billion in gold and sells now at $75.70 per share, where SLV sells at $134.50. The news reports on gold constantly, and silver not too much, so the gold funds are at least in the news, and easy to buy.
We have had several discussions on taking possession of your hard assets, so we don’t need to go there, but Joe Six pack knows nothing about this.
Third, and most important, all of “US” now get most of our information about what is really happening from the “underground” but average Americans still believe in the Government, mainstream press, and Wall street.
Most of us have stopped believing that the inflation rate is 2.5%, that you can trust S&P and Moody’s to rate your investments, that you can always find some fool to buy your debt even if you have no way to repay it and create billions more each day.
Silver appears to be a screaming buy here, and I am personally load with the stuff, so I hope it moves, but who knows.
I would not want to be in either of those when the balloon goes up to instantaneously find "metallic" physical metal...rather than "paper"
physical metal.
roadrunner
<< <i>You can bet your bottom dollar that the gold and silver ETF's do not hold 100% physical metal or even close to it. Consider them just another extension of the cartel's manipulation of metal prices.
I would not want to be in either of those when the balloon goes up to instantaneously find "metallic" physical metal...rather than "paper"
physical metal.
roadrunner >>
I agree that in a doomsday scenario , you are better off with physical metal ,but the cartels (if you believe in them ) will do whatever it takes to prevent doomsday. The flip side of the argument is that when "the balloon goes up" there will be the mad scramble to find physical metal and it will act like a "short squeeze" and metals prices will take off. In that scenario it is easier to trade ETFs than physical metal.
I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal.
Like taking ARMs? The interesting evolution to current thinking, ala Katrina, is that the government is responsible for everything. People seem to be unable, as a common body, to take care of themselves and their families and the common thinking appears to be that the common folk want it to be the responsiblity of the government to keep them whole. Maybe that is just a phenomena of the urban dwellers but it does seem that we are turning to government more and more. Or, maybe we are just seeing a response to the slippage in the middle class state of affairs. Even the slightest extreem weather event or infrastructure failure brings out the call for a National Emergency or a call to declare a Federal or State Disaster Area. With communications so effecient now and so many splintered special interests, any blip beyond the flat line of day to day living is treated as a catastrophic event. I hear it more and more now..."If we can save one person with this law then it is worth it." Really? 42,000 US people died in traffic deaths last year, that's about 3500 a month. Is this a Federal Disaster? Why doesn't someone do something about it?Traffic fatalities 2006
Maybe there is some substance to that thought, maybe the govt. should have protected nodoc/ARM people from themselves or more accurately, from the predators. I believe that is what people could be pissed about if they wanted something to gripe on, the free roaming predatory lenders. While they are getting pissed, they could also consider the 20% interest they are paying on their credit cards...why doesn't someone do something about that before it gets worse? The more we ask for protection, the more we seem to be reaching into social welfare as a federal government obligation. Just where should the line be?
Socialism should exist where extreme need exists among the general population. Programs like SS, WPA, CCC, may seem socialistic but there was extreem need in the general population and the government stepped in and resolved the problem, as best as it could at the time. There is a fine line to walk between providing for the general welfare and being socialistic. It doesn't seem realistic to expect the federal government to provide for the welfare of every subgroup and what not that may demand relief. We do believe in benevolent governments, that's what democracy is about. We do want to be benevolent to ourselves, right? Isnt that the whole idea, that we will take care of ourselves by virtue of our representative government?
This is not a republican or democrat or independent issue, it's more an issue of defining the substance of our govenment and what we expect our government to be responsible for. Do we want the federal government to respond to every flood, every hurricane, every bridge collapse, every anomalie, or broken toe? What do we want? So we want socialistic health care aka socialized medicine? That would put the MD's on the same wage rate schedule as we put the trades for federal project work since they would be, in effect, working for the government, for the greater good. If the practice of medicine was a federal program and all, there seems like there could be a point where socialism stiffles creativity and excellence by dulling the rewards for exceptional merit. We might miss the next Dr. DeBakey. Dr. DeBakey
We could have a situation where the private practice of medicine would become a public practice. Where are we willing to draw the line?
Oh yes..."Silver appears to be a screaming buy here". You always wonder with silver...It'll bleed you to death one year and make you rich the next...which year will this be?
I know there are a lot of parts to this diatribe that could be enthusiastically debated but the more interesting question is: What are the effects of socialism on our economic predictions?
Ponder on...and here's a tip for your troubles.
Edited for miscellaneous errors.
Might have been too quick on bailing on silver. It appears poised to explode considering all the efforts being taken to keep it in a tight
box of $13.50 to $13.80. I'd be bullish right now. As far as Cartels go, yeah I believe in them. Even the FED has come out publically on more than one occasion and talked about managing the gold price.
Cartels? That's another name for business as usual in all the major markets.
The first time it is proven that those ETF's don't command 100% physical metal, only a very few will be able to get out before things go crunch. 30 seconds or even 3 seconds won't be good enough.
If the ETF's are just bookies taking bets shouldn't they at least come out and say so? Think about it. Do you think the ETF can move physical silver any faster than Joe 6-pack if the need to sell mass quantities exist? It will be like anything else and only be as liquid as the buyers. And at that point the buyers will want the physical metal before they fork over their cash. 30 seconds it isn't.
Sure they have the physical. Just like the USA still owns $8000 tons of gold.
roadrunner
Hays believes that gold and silver will be in a narrow trading range for a long time.........
A forum flashback to April 2005. Dow was just over 10,000. Gold around $425. The above post is rather striking. Few gave gold a chance and the derivatives mess was still well-concealed.
Don Hays needs another 6,000+ in the Dow by next April to make his prediction come true. Wonder what he is predicting today?
I hope gold continues in the "small trading range" it has occupied for the past 2-1/2 years. It has worked rather well.
Gold......it's not rocket science. Hays was right about gold for about 5 months until Oct 2005 when it started its march towards $500, $600 and $700. Gold seems to do anything but stay in a "tight" trading range.
roadrunner
<< <i>The mainstream press has become just another socialists arm that believes common folks are idiots that cannot make good decisions for themselves.
>>
After looking at the level of debt in this country and those who voted Bush a second term,
I tend to agree with them, Present company excepted,
<< <i>I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal.
Might have been too quick on bailing on silver. It appears poised to explode considering all the efforts being taken to keep it in a tight
box of $13.50 to $13.80. I'd be bullish right now. As far as Cartels go, yeah I believe in them. Even the FED has come out publically on more than one occasion and talked about managing the gold price.
Cartels? That's another name for business as usual in all the major markets.
The first time it is proven that those ETF's don't command 100% physical metal, only a very few will be able to get out before things go crunch. 30 seconds or even 3 seconds won't be good enough.
If the ETF's are just bookies taking bets shouldn't they at least come out and say so? Think about it. Do you think the ETF can move physical silver any faster than Joe 6-pack if the need to sell mass quantities exist? It will be like anything else and only be as liquid as the buyers. And at that point the buyers will want the physical metal before they fork over their cash. 30 seconds it isn't.
Sure they have the physical. Just like the USA still owns $8000 tons of gold.
roadrunner >>
The high on Friday was 13.97 and the low 13.28, the ETF trades a little lower than the spot price (for reasons I dont understand). A lot of REAL cash can be made trading this range. I still have confidence in the ETFs and hope that I never get proven wrong.
<< <i>I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal.
Might have been too quick on bailing on silver. It appears poised to explode considering all the efforts being taken to keep it in a tight
box of $13.50 to $13.80. I'd be bullish right now. As far as Cartels go, yeah I believe in them. Even the FED has come out publically on more than one occasion and talked about managing the gold price.
Cartels? That's another name for business as usual in all the major markets.
The first time it is proven that those ETF's don't command 100% physical metal, only a very few will be able to get out before things go crunch. 30 seconds or even 3 seconds won't be good enough.
If the ETF's are just bookies taking bets shouldn't they at least come out and say so? Think about it. Do you think the ETF can move physical silver any faster than Joe 6-pack if the need to sell mass quantities exist? It will be like anything else and only be as liquid as the buyers. And at that point the buyers will want the physical metal before they fork over their cash. 30 seconds it isn't.
Sure they have the physical. Just like the USA still owns $8000 tons of gold.
roadrunner >>
That would be true, but in today's controlled markets nothing will settle...or move for that matter up or down like it did in 1987. Programmed selling took the DOW down over 20% in one day. Now there are are all kinds of "safety nets" in place to stop a free-fall. RR are there the same safety nets for EFT's? ...if not then I am on board with you on this one! :-)
<< <i>I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal.
Might have been too quick on bailing on silver. It appears poised to explode considering all the efforts being taken to keep it in a tight
box of $13.50 to $13.80. I'd be bullish right now. As far as Cartels go, yeah I believe in them. Even the FED has come out publically on more than one occasion and talked about managing the gold price.
Cartels? That's another name for business as usual in all the major markets.
The first time it is proven that those ETF's don't command 100% physical metal, only a very few will be able to get out before things go crunch. 30 seconds or even 3 seconds won't be good enough.
If the ETF's are just bookies taking bets shouldn't they at least come out and say so? Think about it. Do you think the ETF can move physical silver any faster than Joe 6-pack if the need to sell mass quantities exist? It will be like anything else and only be as liquid as the buyers. And at that point the buyers will want the physical metal before they fork over their cash. 30 seconds it isn't.
Sure they have the physical. Just like the USA still owns $8000 tons of gold.
roadrunner >>
Will never happen. You are leaving a ton of money on the table if you dont take advantage of the "phantom" (LOL) EFTs. When trading the SLV I dont have to settle for the 95% that the smelter will offer. Complain about "paper" all you want, but like it or not, it is real and will be here long after you and I.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
People were saying the same thing about ENRON being indestructable. The ETF system is only as good as the system that monitors it. Hence to me, it is inconceivable that there won't be a scandal with the ETF's down the road.
roadrunner
converted to the actual metals, will be the very time they will
cease to be liquid. That is the "Law of Perverse Reality". While it
is true that people made money on Enron, you had to be nimble
to bail out before it was discovered ,that the Emperor had no clothes.
Camelot
When you sell your gold what do to take in kind? Please dont tell me "paper".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Don't they have to pass an annual audit that shows they comply with their prospectus in order to remain listed on the exchange?
I knew it would happen.
and assured, before it is discovered that the thing that
was so secure.......actually wasn't. Be careful out there.
Plenty of very smart people have been badly burned over
the years in all kinds of secure investments.
Camelot
In the meantime, most of us would rather discuss COINS.
Mike (Coppernicus)
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
<< <i>This is not an appropriate topic in the U.S. Coin Forum. When PCGS adds a "Bullion" Forum, feel free to post away >>
there's MANY U.S. coins, of which have been discussed in this thread that are viewed as "Bullion". if you don't like this thread, i've got an idea... move along to another.
it says GOLD and SILVER , WORLD NEWS, ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS.
If you wish to read solely about coins , then do not read this thread.
Since so many of the Forum members have bought the First Spouse coins,
Economics and gold topics are most appropriate for this Forum.
Camelot
<< <i>This is not an appropriate topic in the U.S. Coin Forum. When PCGS adds a "Bullion" Forum, feel free to post away.
In the meantime, most of us would rather discuss COINS.
Mike (Coppernicus) >>
There are lots and lots of threads to discuss coins.
If you don't think the price of gold, silver, and other precious metals as well economics effect coins and numismatics overall, then you are missing a huge point.
This is only one thread and it's been a wealth of knowledge. With all due respect, no one is forcing you to read nor bother to post to it.
Cheers!
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
In fact so pertinent that the seller (ie the US mint) shutdown gold coining operations recently due to the rising pog. Not pertinent???
When you sell your gold what do to take in kind? Please dont tell me "paper".
Correct. I trade back and forth from generic $20 Saints and Libs into better gold depending on which is more underpriced at the time.
Lately I've been moving out of my remaining 61-62 $20's and into some better 64 and 65 generic gold pieces. Nearly all of my "bullionesque" gold is in US generics and not AGE's or other pure bullion coins. In fact I've never owned a single AGE yet. Maybe someday. MS63-64 Saints are about as close to bullion as I usually like to get.
And when you sell your paper ETF shares I assume you end up with paper FRN's in kind? And if ever or when physical precious metal is being demanded for barter/trade/cash substitute, how will the ETF get you your physical silver?
roadrunner
Actually RR both parties in this ETF discussion are correct depending on where they are in their level of investment.
Most all of us got to the bullion stage after building our coin collections. With some decent annual funds, and some aggressive buying, one seems to end up at bullion accumulation after many years, simply because one has nowhere else to go.
That said, then where does one go as storage and other things become a problem?
My feeling here is that beginning investors should always buy hard assets and take possession of those for their basic protection, but at a certain level buying and trading the ETF’S become a great alternative simply because of speed, storage, shipping and handling, and commission issues.
Yes it is possible to pay a little more per ounce in an ETF than the ETF actually has, but it is also possible to pay less.
Here is an example, SLV”s bars are now valued at the following as per their month end:
$2.0B Total Net Assets as of 9/30/07, and as of Friday their total market capitalization was $1.9 billion. So the market value of the shares stays very close to the asset value.
This asset situation in the larger PM ETF’S is very unlike nearly all other shares traded on the exchanges. How many investments can any of us name, besides bonds, C.D.’S etc. that trade at NET BOOK ASSETT VALUE?
I suppose these fund managers could be lying, perhaps all those pictures, of all those bars in vaults are merely pictures, and there is no Gold or silver, but it is pretty unlikely that the bigger investors would not have seen the real bars.
AS to Coppernicus point, I think even the PCGS management might be amazed at who now comes here to read this tread. This tread has created many, many, new collectors that would have never thought of collecting coins that simply came here to check out our thinking. Many national writers and economists have visited just to check the thought process here.
Be it luck or fate, our poor little thread here has hashed out many of the problems that face our economy and that relate not only to coin and capital preservation but to wider issue as well.
AS we all know, coin collecting is the hobby of Kings, and certainly the hobby of those that have excess capital. If you cannot pay your mortgage, credit cards, etc. you are not going to be in our hobby for long!
AS we all know, coin collecting is the hobby of Kings, and certainly the hobby of those that have excess capital...
Don't make me post my brown wheaties here
<< <i>When PCGS adds a "Bullion" Forum, feel free to post away >>
No way. This topic is clearly labeled so those who want to avoid can do so by excercising their free will.
I think I've posted to this behemoth of a thread about 4 times (including today) but I read it every day there's an update to my subscription. It's the one thread that keeps me looking on the US coin forum. Without it I'm sure I never would have maintained enough interest in US coins (I like darkside) to start my 7070. With the 7070 when I periodically buy a coin about a third of them I'm cracking out of a PCGS slab. Someday I will go to sell and will have them re-slabbed thus generating a nice chunk o' fees for the PCGS gods. All for the price of a few electrons to our hosts.
To keep this 'on topic' for the thread, these are my two latest books I've been reading:
The History of Money a very nice little history lesson, with a last chapter proposing the next step in the future of money is digital money/credits. The other one that I'm reading (I'm on page 12) is Gold: The Once and Future Money that I bought to read about the historical usage of gold. Somehow, as I strongly suspect from the title
BTW I was at Ciruit City last night getting a new printer and the guy in front of me was paying for 2 video games with cash. The total was $126 (!) and the checkout guy asked the buyer for his name, phone number and address, all of which he put in the computer. Much to my husband's embarrassment I asked why he was collecting all that information and the kid told me 'It's policy now with any cash purchase above $100. It's happening everywhere now". I was absolutely floored by both the fact it was happening and the fact that the customer, the checkout guy and my husband all thought I was wierd for thinking it was wierd! Maybe the digital money guy is right, and no purchase over $100 will ever be untraceable again.
Just venting I guess, but I for one look forward to this thread (minus a few derailments here and there) and find it quite useful in terms of numismatic considerations (most of my 'extensive' --haha-- gold collection is in darkside bullionesque coins) and beyond. I would be very dissappointed if the thread went away either due to the unappreciative (who can skip it) or the occasional borderline postings.
If we could only get a spell checker here it would be perfect
"If we could only get a spell checker here it would be perfect"
YES! Oh yes.
"MS63-64 Saints are about as close to bullion as I usually like to get."
YES! It does seem to be a logical conclusion and they're beautiful. There's cooler pre '33 and dated gold but the Saints have their own ball stadium...almost a no brainer at $100-$200 or so over melt in pcgs 63 on Heritage. And, oh yes, they are beautiful, particularly the no mottos with that big ol' sun. If you can stay away from the flat nose and toe variety, you can get a pretty nice coin for not much numismatic premium. When you're bored and don't know which way to go, get a saint and all will be well.
"In the meantime, most of us would rather discuss COINS."
No coins here, sir. Please move along, and don't forget to see the egress just up there on the right.
"My feeling here is that beginning investors should always buy hard assets and take possession of those for their basic protection, but at a certain level buying and trading the ETF’S become a great alternative simply because of speed, storage, shipping and handling, and commission issues."
Pretty hard to argue with that statement.
Coin ON!
In the meantime, most of us would rather discuss COINS.
News Flash - In 1986, the United States began a Bullion COIN program, and bullion pricing is entirely within the scope of U.S. Coins. Update your calender, please.
If you find the subject uninteresting, start a thread of your own and dive right in - nobody's stopping you.
I've found this thread to contain many good resources and I find it to be one of the most valuable threads in the forum.
When you sell your gold what do to take in kind? Please dont tell me "paper".
I am convinced that damaging (and unreported) inflation is here to stay.
Several comments here, in addition to other sources that I follow had convinced me that leaving retirement money in mutual funds, even T-Bill funds is a losing proposition, and that the money is dead (and shrinking) unless you pull it out for re-deployment with a 10% early withdrawal penalty and the taxes on top of that.
My thought was, that a 10% inflation rate (or higher) will reduce my holdings significantly before retirement if I didn't put it out of the system's reach, i.e., by averaging into gold and silver.
When I ran through the numbers on form 8606, it was simply a total disaster. I recognize that the money has not yet been taxed, but it floored me that they lump all tax deductible accounts into one tax report, so that you can't separate IRA funds from SEP/IRA funds in order to minimize the gains in one or the other. Of course, then I realized that the gains don't matter anyway, because it all gets taxed. It doesn't make sense to withdraw it, get taxed and then put it into another investment that will eventually get taxed again.
When it appeared that I would lose upwards of 50% of my capital just by removing the money from the retirment vehicles, I gave up, got mad, and redeployed it agressively into ETFs and Oil stocks. I figured that if half the money is not really mine, I might as well speculate hard and fast.
I feel confident that our government will not let me down in the area of inflation. The biggest question I have is not whether my stock choices were correct, but whether or not I will be able to finesse the money out of the accounts at the time of my choosing.
What a sad state of affairs!
I knew it would happen.
Store policy? Or government conspiracy?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<< <i>"the checkout guy asked the buyer for his name, phone number and address"
Store policy? Or government conspiracy?
You don't need to provide this. They just want to send you junk mail and
call you while you're in the shower.
Jmski52, I've been having similar thoughts with my 401K. While my company has contributed 50% of it along the way, most of it could be a goner down the road. Fortunately the option was added a couple of years ago to be able to go outside the core fund with up to 50% of the total account value. And like you, I'm "speculating" hard and fast in PM's and other hard assets with that 50%. My diversified gold fund has done fine since I started, but the best is yet to come. I'm sure I'm the only one in our entire company that owns a gold fund in their 401K.
The real problem is what to do with the core 50% that gives you very few "safe" options.
1.Growth stock funds in your choice of mid-cap, small-cap, large-cap
2.Retirement fund mixes of stocks/bonds based on your age.
These are typically heavily leveraged towards stocks.
3.Bond index funds
4.US Treasury money market fund
5.Stable Value Fund (SIC's, GIC's, BIC's, etc)
Of course choices 4 and 5 are not guaranteed by the US Govt nor the company running the 401K. These are all at full market risk and only as good as the banks, insurance companies and govt's that issued them. No warm fuzzy feeling there!
For my money I'd rather play this safe right now but do not see any of the above as being "safe." Treasuries are linked to interest rates and the USDI which are anything but stable. Stable value fund could be littered with illiquid funds that could kill your returns.
Growth stocks and bonds at the present? Well enough said.
For a few years I did have significant dollars in the Stable Value Fund but it finally hit me that the thing could be littered with derivative junk. Whose to say? While they aren't called SIV's, they look awfully similar. And bonds, well they HAD a nice run.
When the stock market finally shakes out I'd be happy to plunk down some money for the longer run. But not right now.
You'd think there'd be some better alternatives in these 401K's to honestly protect one's dollars. Why not an Energy Fund for example? Or how about an International Fund that has significant exposure to Asian Companies? (my 401K does have an International Fund but its exposure is almost entirely to Europe). Europe is in the same boat we are right now...maybe worse.
Right now it's protection rather than growth that I prefer....and I don't see it. It will likely come after 401K's and pension funds blow up....but that will be too late for this round. And when you ask these pointed questions to the 401K managers or experts you get the same reply......"the returns are for the long haul and not short term trading. You'll get better returns over the long haul."
Any 401Ker not hanging in for years at a crack is a dirty "speculator."
Yet these very same companies make their money trading daily and wouldn't be caught dead long term in this type of market with their own fortunes.
roadrunner
Unfortunately the Constitution does not state that the Government PROVIDE for the General welfare.
It states that it will PROMOTE the General welfare.
They do not mean the same thing.
That is why things are so screwed up, the SOCIALISTS have distorted the Constitutions wording with lies that everyone quotes as some kind of truth!!
All my years of watching gold as an avid gold bug leads me to believe that $1200 in the next 3 years or sooner is an easy mark. Fiat money never leads to any good in the long run. Study the Fall of the Roman empire and note the parallels. There is currently $49000-$80000 in USD currency floating around out there for every ounce of GOLD in the National Reserve. Gold is dirt cheap IMHO.
FOR SALE Items
on economics. I am amazed at the astute observations and
intellectual analysis by Forum members, on this important subject.
One can not really collect coins without developing an interest in the
economic machinery,that underlies the Nation ,that produces the coinage
that we collect.
Camelot
"If we could only get a spell checker here it would be perfect"
YES! Oh yes.
Spell checker easy download
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Right now, I'm about 50% in the fixed account and 40% in the international emerging markets, and around 10% left in some misc. US stock fund... but sure wishing I could have more options!