"You have to admit, the peanut farmer was a disaster."
Aw...all right, I'll tell a story, every word is true. It was a late July morning around 6:15 on a Sunday morning in the North side of Houston, just outside the loop, underneath the pines, in 1998. It was my second day of duty on a Habitat for Humanity project. We were building homes for folks that didn't have one, it was a good project that was very well orgnaized and high profile. I was in charge of getting the 40 or so sites planted and prettied up as they finished the houses.
I stepped off of the crew bus that picked me up at the common parking lot and we drove off into the light morning fog, the bus driver and me. The morning was warm with the sky just waiting to turn that beautiful Texas light blue in the pre dawn that was going to bring the sun flat on your back. The heat the day before had almost become incapacitating. Humidity 80%, temp around 100, no wind. I had a thermos with some coffee and decided to just walk to the assembly point about a quarter mile away, have a smoke, drink some coffee, check in, get organized.
Reflecting on the previous days effort at the site, I was getting my mind right . My work boots felt good walking across the pine needles below the pines...the fog was just lifting and the night was running west, the cool morning was changing and this day was going to be a bear. The nasty jeans I had on were left over from yesterday, I had my same denim shirt on, and my farming hat, a Bangora that was nice and flat and crisp wheat colored, getting my game face ready. There was another guy out there under the pines, walking kind of perpendicular to me. Had work boots, he was walking across the pine needle floor, he wore a gimme cap and had jeans and a light flannel (really) shirt on. Just looked like a guy doing the same thing I was. I figured he was probably a framer for one of the houses, out to get an early start.
We got closer, just this guy and I out in the pines in the early morning, kicking the fog up off the ground, going to work. We drew up on each other I looked up under his hat and it was Jimmy Carter. I quickly spoke "Good morning, Mr. President." He read my name tag and said "Good morning, Mike" He asked if I was headed to work on the houses and I said that I was and mentioned how hot it was yesterday but we got so much done. He started to respond and we both dropped the conversation to look at the sunrise. It broke the ground and lept up, chasing itself through the pines...yepper, it was gonna be a hot one. I looked at President Carter, he had an orange glow on his face, his eyes were clear and bright, his white hair shared the color of the sun on his face. Ladies and Gentlemen, the President of the United States of America. Amazing, just he and I; no security, no assistants, no media, no managers...just he and I. We just stood there, in the quiet of the morning, no one else even near us, looking at the sunrise, being quiet with each other, just watching, getting ready for the day. He reached over and held my hand, just for a second, almost like a sideways handshake.
As the new day broke, we faced each other, shook hands wished each other good luck and we continued on our paths...people were starting to show up. It was time to go to work!
"You have to admit, the peanut farmer was a disaster." It's hard for me to do that.
Social Security is the primary issue I have with FDR. Yes, he did do many things that were needed at the time, but continuing socialism isn't the answer. It's never worked anywhere before and it's slowly ruining us.
Wow..............the most successful government program in US history and you’ve got a problem with it? The only program that has kept millions of people from living in gutters and becoming a complete burden on their offspring and society. I guess you made your money and everyone else should too. >>
Fox News? Is that supposed to be a reference to me? I watch Fox very rarely, I find myself watching CNN more and more just to see how slanted the mainstream media actually is.
Let's see now..... Hmm, a less than 1% return on the people's money is the MOST successful? People were better off before SS, do a little study on our history.
Better yet, just look into what the City of Galveston has done since they dropped out of SS in 1979.
Social Security has been the most perfect pyramid scheme in history as the victims hadn't even been born yet.
NO, I haven't "made my money" as you say. If I could retire today I'd do so. I recently purchased an existing company and went over a half mil in debt in the process. I sure as Hell wouldn't do that if I already had what I need for the future. The SS program has kept people in slavery to the Federal Government and worse yet, it's all been spent. Please explain how giving away SS dollars to illegal aliens and all the other programs it was NEVER supposed to be used for is successful. Several years ago, I had become friends with my cleaning lady and she told me how her parents had just reached 65 and were coming from El Salvador to the US to retire. They would immediately draw nearly 2K per month having never put a single penny into the program. Sure they are illegal, but that doesn't matter to our half baked Socialist leaning politicians.
They have now been here for over 12 years, still illegal, and are planning on buying a small home in the near future, one they will pass dpwn to their daughter. Tell me again how SS is such a wonderful program? They have lived in HUD sponsored housing, again subsidized by SS money. Could I get one of those good deals? Not a chance in Hell. I spent years refurbishing apartment complexes and they would only rent to illegals. Sorry, but that's a fact. I spent many years on those projects and I know what I am talking about. No, the law doesn't say that, but the bureaucrats who run the program do as they see fit and all are still holdovers from the Clinton Administration. Henry Cisneros put that policy in as director of HUD. I once had to shake hands with the guy for a photo op. I needed a shower afterward. I could tell hours and hours of stories about the graft and waste of SS money on those projects.
We are being raped by our elected and appointed masters and to think anything else is simply foolish.
You, my friend, are beyond naive.
I'd be more than happy to have all my money refunded right now with no interest whatsoever. A monkey could do better with his retirement program than SS has done for US citizens.
It has done nothing to keep people from living in gutters, but it has assured that the average income earners have little to no hope in creating a real retirement plan. Years ago, regular people still had money left over for charities and their church and that, along with families was how the elderly were taken care of. It instilled a sense of value in the people. The government has been doing all they can for decades now to destroy those values. Making the people beholding to the Government has been the goal since FDR's days and while we may live better today, we don't have the values that made this country what it was, the best country in the world.
Tell us again how Socialism works so well and why we need it. I think we could all use the laugh.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>“The hourly wage of the average American is slightly lower now than it was in 1970, about -5% However, pay of the average CEO has increased around 1000%. In 1970 it was less than 30 times the average pay, and is now almost 300 times the average pay.”
I wish I knew where all these numbers come from?
During the recent negotiations with the UAW the news reported that the average UAW worker made $76.00 per hour with benefits. I am the CEO of my small company and I am making $43.75 per hour and have not had a raise in 6 years.
“ Interesting read.”
COHODK,
I wonder why none of these writers point out that the reason everyone’s wallets are empty is because we pay 60% of our income in Taxes.
Just for a little fun I bought a used Harley a few weeks back. Paid $10,000 for it, and registered it today and paid $713 in sales Taxes.
This in this morning, sent to me by a friend who was in high school in 1955. In all of Human history have things ever changed so drastically?
"I'll tell you one thing, if things keep going the way they are, it's going to be impossible to buy a week's groceries for $20."
"Have you seen the new cars coming out next year? It won't be long before $2000 will only buy a used one."
"If cigarettes keep going up in price, I'm going to quit. A quarter a pack is ridiculous."
"Did you hear the post office is thinking about charging a dime just to mail a letter?"
"If they raise the minimum wage to $1, nobody will be able to hire outside help at the store."
"When I first started driving, who would have thought gas would someday cost 29 cents a gallon. Guess we'd be better off leaving the car in the garage."
I’m afraid to send my kids to the movies any more. Ever since they let Clark Gable get by with saying 'damn' in 'Gone With The Wind,' it seems every new movie has either "hell" or "damn" in it.
"Did you see where some baseball player just signed a contract for $75,000 a year just to play ball? It wouldn't surprise me if someday they'll be making more than the president."
"It's too bad things are so tough nowadays. I see where a few married women are having to work to make ends meet."
"It won't be long before young couples are going to have to hire someone to watch their kids so they can both work."
"Thank goodness I won't live to see the day when Governments take half our income in taxes. I sometimes wonder if we are electing the best people to government."
"There is no sense going to Lincoln or Omaha anymore for a weekend. It costs nearly $15 a night to stay in a hotel"
"No one can afford to be sick any more; $35 a day in the hospital is too rich for my blood."
"If they think I'll pay 50 cents for a hair cut, forget it." >>
I made similiar comments way in the beginning of this thread. Yes, we do have problems, but we always have and always will. America will find a way to cure its ills. It may just time some time though.
<< <i><< “The hourly wage of the average American is slightly lower now than it was in 1970, about -5% >>
That's total bull. In 1972 I worked in a steel mill in Ohio. I made $4 an hour and it was considered a good wage. Some guys were raising families on it.
The article makes the point of not mistaking social security for an investment vehicle. It was never meant to be one. It was meant to be an insurance policy. As we all know, insurance policies have different rates of return than equities.
The article also mentions that Britain's privatized social security scheme is doing so badly they may have to throw additional money at it.
Chile went to a privatized social security system and had problems.
> That's total bull. In 1972 I worked in a steel mill in Ohio. I made $4 an hour and it was considered a good wage. Some guys were raising families on it.
Your anecdotal evidence does not represent the overall pay trends in America.
<< <i>"You have to admit, the peanut farmer was a disaster."
Aw...all right, I'll tell a story, every word is true......... "You have to admit, the peanut farmer was a disaster." It's hard for me to do that. >>
I was referring to his Presidency. I think he means well and probably meant well. The fact is, his policies put millions out of work and are the root cause of the Islamic fascist problems we now live with. He also believed Kim Jong Il and gave them nuclear reactors on behalf of Bill Clinton. How may disasters does one need to see what this clown has done to our nation's security?
Not to mention that the Red Chinese Army now has control of the Panama Canal and that is solely on him. No one else.
I'd love to have the opportunity to spend a few minutes with him. I doubt he'd enjoy it though. Truth can be a nasty mistress.
Glad you enjoyed your sunrise with that bumbling idiot. History hasn't and won't be as kind as you were, nor should it be.
When Habitat for Humanity actually awards homes to people based on need and not racial preferences, let me know.
I don't expect to hear otherwise, while Jimmy's heart may be in the right place, his head is up his ***. He actually believed th Ayatollah's lies and we have been paying for that ever since. The blood of many American soldiers killed in Iraq is on his hands.
He hasn't even come close to making up for the damage he did to this nation. It's no accident he is regularly rated as one of, if not the, worst President in our history.
I still remember 444 days of hostages and his inability to act. He was in way over his head and frozen with fear from what those around him at the time say. I also remember 20%+ interest rates, gas rationing and long lines and our economy virtually shutting down.
Those were very tough time for me as someone who had a new family and babies to feed. Thanks to his policies I went from making 80K to zero almost overnight. Sorry, but I will always feel differently. It was the silver from my former coin collection that kept a roof over my family's head.
BTW, you weren't alone. The SS had you squarely in their sights the entire time, bet on it.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Anecdotal evidence at best. But here's the kicker. Let's suppose this gentleman dies next week. Will his heirs be able to inherit the SS funds?
Not on your life and you know it. Had he invested privately, the fund would actually belong to him and his heirs as well. That alone negates this nonsense.
Still waiting to hear how Socialism is the best system.
Why not let people decide which system they would like for their money? I'll tell you why...... the Government doesn't believe it's your money. They believe they own all of us, lock stock and barrel.
Would you allow people to decide for themselves? Or like Bill Clinton once said, the Government doesn't believe the people are able to make decisions on their own. Which side are you on?
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>> The blood of many American soldiers killed in Iraq is on his hands.
I didn't know Carter started the Iraq War! Amazing what you learn on these forums. >>
Even more amazing what some fail to learn. I guess 1979 must be ancient history to you. Therein lies the beginning.
Know what an IED is? Do you have a clue where they come from?
Just how young are you? You've got to be a product of our modern public school systems.
Still waiting on your defense of Socialism.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
> Anecdotal evidence at best. But here's the kicker. Let's suppose this gentleman dies next week. Will his heirs be able to inherit the SS funds?
Anecdotal evidence seems to be the norm on these boards.
I mentioned how SS was never meant to be an investment vehicle. It is an insurance system.
Some people pay into insurance their entire lives and never collect a thing. Others collect more than they put in.
Shared pain and shared benefit. Kinda like the road systems, the nation's defense costs, the sewer systems, public water systems, garbage collection, police forces, parks, etc.
Now you can explain to me how Carter started the Iraq War.
Tell us again how Socialism works so well and why we need it. I think we could all use the laugh.
/ i may as well try to play devil's advocate so as to educate myself about the "enemy". ;-)
We have among us a class of mammon worshippers, whose one test of conservatism or radicalism is the attitude one takes with respect to accumulated wealth. Whatever tends to preserve the wealth of the wealthy is called conservatism, and whatever favors anything else, no matter what is called socialism.
/ we need to be more thoughtful towards new ideas and socialism is a neat ideal to dream of. lets not throw the baby out with the bath water when discussing new ideas. i wonder why socialism is so hated when it has such possibilities.
“If you wish to prosper, let your customer prosper. When people have learned this lesson, everyone will seek his individual welfare in the general welfare. Then jealousies between man and man, city and city, province and province, nation and nation, will no longer trouble the world.”
/ i am reading the quote above and i think it is a key idea to socialism's success. We often discuss a coin deal where the dealer and the customer are happy. I wonder what details of the situation are key to that feeling of both parties and how to make it more wide spread.
“The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended.”
/ i wonder if socialism is so hard to understand and accept as a possibility that even the people who defend it are having trouble wrapping their heads around it.
“Under capitalism man exploits man; under socialism the reverse is true.”
“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.”
“The meaning of peace is the absence of opposition to socialism.”
“Many people consider the things which government does for them to be social progress, but they consider the things government does for others as socialism”
“Socialism is the abolition of human self-alienation, the return of man as a real human being.”
--------
after reading online for the last few hours about socialism i have to admit it seems like a good idea but humans are not ready for it. we have a scarcity problem to deal with and a lack of understanding for our neighbors. i am guilty myself. my thoughs keep going back to the new testament and what would jesus do.. we are currently rewarding greed in our society. jesus was a socialist i suppose.
<< <i> it has been this way for years..speacialists, too what's in a name? just because billy-bob ain't there or tiffany doesn't mean they ain't good....grammar intentional
what are "America's best" choosing? >>
Good question. And good point, as we have trained some VERY FINE international doctors-- it may take us 5 years instead of 3 before turning them loose on you fine folks, but we are doing it. And you're right, I apologize for any hasty generalizations about International Medical Graduates to the negative. We take each doctor case by case; but overall in comparisons re: standardized test scores AND real-time clinical observation testing, the IMGs don't come close to American Medical Graduates. Sorry if that offends anyone. Often, that's why they couldn't get into American Medical Schools in the first place.
Also, This is at taxpayer's expense through Graduate Medical Education funding/ not-for-profit hospital passthroughs. Remember, 2 extra years+, to get them up to speed. It's alot of GOLD and SILVER folks.
Our frustration as post-graduate education faculty is that standards are very low-- we're doing a a TON of undergraduate and med school level instruction that these folks aren't getting when they show up (in addition to teaching them English, how to navigate our society and not get ripped off, etc). So they are not really MDs functionally (as American med school grads). So, more and more each year, re: your intern in a teaching hospital in July... you better hope they have an upper level resident or an attending like me looking closely over their shoulder. I'm getting out of bed in the middle of the night alot more these days. Hard to understand over the phone, broken English, they're overwhelmed, etc. RARELY ever used to happen.
I don't exactly know where 'America's best' are: I have a hunch they are in business somewhere, or in law school. Sure, some are still subspecialzing.
BUT... I bet.... They probably have 50% of their holdings in $350 or less gold right now
Don
PM me if you have any questions/comments on this as I don't want to further detract from this thread or contribute to it going poof.
Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
> Even more amazing what some fail to learn. I guess 1979 must be ancient history to you. Therein lies the beginning.
I understand now. You're mixing up Iran and Iraq.
> Know what an IED is? Do you have a clue where they come from?
From insurgents. The Germans before WWII developed the science of shaped charges. The technology is old and isn't too hard to improvise. There is the matter of hundreds of tons of Iraq weapon caches that were left unguarded, and pillaged, after the invasion in 2003. They are certainly a source of explosives that have been used against us.
> Just how young are you? You've got to be a product of our modern public school systems.
I'm not sure how, or if, a personal attack helps your argument.
> Still waiting on your defense of Socialism.
I provided lots of evidence for the points I have been trying to make on this thread. I've never "defended socialism". I don't know where you got that idea.
Managed care really hit the medical profession hard is my guess. The glamour and pay just isn't the same and it is a necessity over private practice for most graduates. Even if there were enough American graduates, the HMOs would probably rather hire a graduate from the Phillipines (as an example) who'll work for less with fewer arguments.
What I recall from a couple decades ago is that a lot of bright people (and others) flooded the law schools due to the popularity of L.A. Law. So we have a lot of lawyers....really productive huh? At the same time, a lot of midcareer boomers in offices hit the night schools for MBAs. Engineer numbers were dropping off, particularly outside the computer-related disciplines (like civil engineering). I know physics gradute programs were imbalanced with foreign students. American PhD candidates were in the minority and often couldn't do pure research as they got railroaded into the government contract work that required citizenship, the asset the foreigner students couldn't bring to the table. Lots of people also went into high tech and still do; there's a vacuum to fill. A huge part of that crowd is a huge mismatch, just there for the opportunity but with little aptitude for the job. The peer frustration from that sours it for the good ones.
Not sure where the truly best and brightest are ending up anymore, but I bet they aren't as satisfied as in the past. My guess is in medicine their talent is often prioritized below their adherence to business protocol. Some MDs I have casually spoke wth on topics like this pretty much confirm this. In commercial technical, I do know many are frustrated by management that doesn't appreciate their inputs in many, many organizations, but certainly not all.
Planning for retirement requires a number of vehicles.
401K... provides control over investments, a pool of money that will be yours or your heirs. This has the defect of depending upon your willingness or ability, in placing sizable contributions into the plan for an extended time line until retirement.
Fixed benefit pension.... This is is a rapidly disappearing type of pension as it is more costly to the employer due to funding liabilities. Also, if the pension is underfunded and the company goes bankrupt, or the the bankrupt company converted the assets into company stock, then your pension is kaput. You must depend upon the Government reinsurance plan which offers no health coverage and usually far smaller pension benefits.
Soc Sec...This is a dependable insurance plane that is calculated solely upon your earnings for a set period of time. It also provides benefits to your spouse, even if your spouse has never worked. Further in the case of your untimely demise, benefits are paid to the surviving dependents.
Savings...This is a factor that may or may not exist outside of the 401K.
All in all, retirement and its benefits are dependent on long term planning, discipline, a measure of financial sacrifice during ones work career. Social Security is only a part of an overall plan. Some times, a person may have to change jobs many times over a work career and may not have the opportunity to benefit from 40lKs , pensions or retirement savings. Divorces, personal tragedies, disability, natural disasters may destroy or prevent a person from adequately prepare for retirement. In that case, Social Security may be the largest, if not only, retirement benefit.
Private investment in stocks and or bonds and mutual funds....Again this may or may not exist outside of your 401K.
Assets....Home, rental properties, art, coin and stamp collections ect, ect......Again some folks may or may not have paid off the mortgage..refinancing for the kids college or medical costs may leave the retire still burdened with a mortgage. Other folks may be renters all of their lives.
The 401K does have problems with respect to future tax rates. Depending on that future, post-tax dollars (the now Roth 401K?) might have a tremendous advantage over the conventional 401K. Still, I see no reason to discourage that savings, at least to the maximum employer match if one can manage it. But those who were the most responsible in setting up the retirement might have to prepare to eventually take it in the can to support those who didn't bother, one way or another - probably with an indirect tax, just plain higher regular income tax rates, or reduction of SS benefits based on that other income.
<< <i>Soc Sec...This is a dependable insurance plane that is calculated solely upon your earnings for a set period of time. It also provides benefits to your spouse, even if your spouse has never worked. Further in the case of your untimely demise, benefits are paid to the surviving dependents. >>
To be fair, those are reduced benifits. My Mother learned that lesson.
Further, as an heir, I will receive nothing. Dependents only applies to minor children.
Comparing SS to privately owned retirement programs is apples and oranges.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
There is no comparing SOC SEC to private plans. They are different components to an overall program. Not all folks have the ability, the means or the discipline to provide for their own retirement. It would seem that
a lot of folks are "Too late smart..and too soon old".
<< <i>a lot of folks are "Too late smart..and too soon old". >>
Truer words, Bear. Truer words.
I confess to a bit of that myself, but then raising children as a single parent will keep your wallet fairly lean. Rushing fast now to make up for lost time.
On topic......... gold is making a strong push in overseas trading tonight.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Prepare to defend yourselves. We have crossed over the part of the gold runway where there is no alternative but to take it into the sky. This thing is coming apart faster than you know. Everything gold will take off with it. About that have no doubt.
Japan and China lead flight from the dollar By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor Last Updated: 1:09am BST 17/10/2007
"Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright China threatens `nuclear option' of dollar sales Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: This bear is not capitulating"
Japan and China led a record withdrawl of foreign funds from the United States in August, heightening fears of a fresh slide in the dollar and a spike in US bond yields.
Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright China threatens `nuclear option' of dollar sales Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: This bear is not capitulating
The US requires $70bn a month in capital inflows to cover its current account deficit
Data from the US Treasury showed outflows of $163bn (£80bn) from all forms of US investments. "These numbers are absolutely stunning," said Marc Ostwald, an economist at Insinger de Beaufort.
Asian investors dumped $52bn worth of US Treasury bonds alone, led by Japan ($23bn), China ($14.2bn) and Taiwan ($5bn). It is the first time since 1998 that foreigners have, on balance, sold Treasuries.
Mr Ostwald warned that US bond yields could start to rise again unless the outflows reverse quickly. "Woe betide US Treasuries if inflation does not remain benign," he said.
The release comes a day after the IMF warned that the dollar was still overvalued and likely to face "some depreciation in the medium term".
The dollar's short-lived rally over recent days stopped abruptly on the data, increasing pressure on US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to shore up Washington's "strong dollar" rhetoric at the G7 summit this week.
The Greenback has already fallen below parity against the Canadian Loonie for the first time since 1976 and has touched record lows against a global basket. It closed at $2.032 against the pound.
David Woo, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said Washington was happy to see the dollar slide. "They don't care so long as the fall is not disorderly. They see it as a way of correcting the deficit. " he said.
Mr Woo said a chunk of the August outflows may have come from foreigners borrowing in the US during the liquidity crunch to meet needs in euros. "We think it may be a one-off," he said.
The US requires $70bn a month in capital inflows to cover its current account deficit, but the key sources of finance are drying up one by one.
BNP Paribas said America has relied on "hot money" from abroad to cover 25pc to 30pc of the US short-term credit and commercial paper market over the last two years.
This flow is now in danger after the seizure in parts of the market over the summer and after the Federal Reserve's half point rate cut, which has shaved the US yield advantage over other countries.
Ian Stannard, a Paribas currency analyst, said the data was "extremely negative" for the dollar. "It exceeds the worst fears. It is not just foreigners who are selling US assets. Americans are turning their back as well," he said.
Central banks in Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam have all begun to cut purchases of US bonds, or signalled an intent to do so. In effect, they are giving up trying to hold down their currencies because the policy is starting to set off inflation.
The Treasury data would have been even worse if it had not been for $60bn of inflows from hedge funds based in Britain and the Caymans, which needed to cover US positions at the height of the credit crunch
I also remember 20%+ interest rates, gas rationing and long lines and our economy virtually shutting down.
Don't fault Carter for that mess. The problems in the 1976-1980 period were pre-determined by Johnson and Nixon. Johnson taught us how to spend uncontrollably and Nixon took us off gold. The mix of those 2 set up the run of commodities/real assets and the drop in paper assets. The stock market peaked in 1966 and what followed was just a normal equities down cycle....accentuated by removing the gold link. If the 1970's were a burden to us, you may not like what's coming at us in the 2010's.
In just the few years since this thread started, total derivatives have doubled or tripled, something like $150 TRILL to $450 TRILL. But in one sense, it's like atomic bombs. You can blow up the world with just a small number, yet we have thousands around the world. $150 TRILL in bad paper can completely blow up the financial system. So 3X that is just insurance I guess.
<< <i>I didn't know Carter started the Iraq War! Amazing what you learn on these forums.
Let's just dispense with the political correctness and call it what it is, "the islamic war against free people." >>
Saddam Hussein was hardly an ardent Muslim. He was no boy scout, for certain, but does anyone seriously nelieve all that rhetoric still that we went to Iraq to stop al Qaida?
This was mentioned earlier but what does this pyramid mean exactly?
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER, Associated Press Writer Mon Oct 15, 7:23 PM ET
“Kathleen Casey-Kirschling applied for benefits over the Internet at an event hosted by Astrue. Casey-Kirschling was born one second after midnight on Jan. 1, 1946, gaining her recognition as the first baby boomer — a generation of nearly 80 million born from 1946 to 1964, Astrue said.
An estimated 10,000 people a day will become eligible for Social Security benefits over the next two decades, Astrue said. The Social Security trust fund, if left alone, is projected to go broke in 2041.”
So how much money printing is this just for S.S.? If the average Boomer gets $1,000 per month and 10,000 new people apply each day that’s $10 million each day added to the rolls.
One of you math geniuses help me out here, how much new money do the Feds have to print each year to keep up with this? For now we can just forget about all the folks already on the payroll.
All this may go broke a lot faster than Astrue estimates if we cannot sell debt to Foreigners!
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, China and Taiwan sold U.S. Treasuries at the fastest pace in at least five years in August as losses linked to U.S. sub-prime mortgages sparked a slump in the dollar.
Japan cut its holdings by 4 percent to $586 billion, the most since a new benchmark for the data was created in March 2000, Treasury Department figures published yesterday showed. China's ownership of U.S. government bonds fell by 2.2 percent to $400 billion, the fastest pace since April 2002. Taiwan's slid 8.9 percent to $52 billion, the most since October 2000.
Asia's dumping of Treasuries exacerbated the biggest sell- off in U.S. financial assets since Russia defaulted in 1998. The dollar has declined by 7.2 percent this year to a record low against the euro as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month to support the housing market, reducing the yield advantage of U.S. fixed income assets."
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, China and Taiwan sold U.S. Treasuries at the fastest pace in at least five years in August as losses linked to U.S. sub-prime mortgages sparked a slump in the dollar.
Someone was buying these at a near record pace because the rate on the 10 yr treasury fell from 5.25% to 4.40% from July-Sept. TWhen rates go down, prices go up. Price will go up when there is demand. And in this case there was a lot of demand.
<< <i>So who is buying it? Is the USA buying it back? What 'currency' are they using to 'buy'? Gold? Their own debt instruments?, something else? >>
There is HUGE demand for USA debt. It is bought by anyone who has money no matter what the currency. Much is bought by USA citizens. Much is bought by foreign governments. Much is bought by corporations domestic and abroad. Dispite our faults, the USA is still the greatest country in the world. If you dont believe me then you must travel abroad. Go to China, see how great life is there. Go to Russia, see how great life is there. Go to India or Brazil, or Saudi Arabia, or Poland, go ahead, see how GREAT you have it right here in the good 'ole USA.
Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may ``plunge'' in 2008, prompting the U.S., the European Union and Japan to intervene in foreign exchange markets, said Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's former top currency official.
<< <i>Japan cut its holdings by 4 percent to $586 billion, the most since a new benchmark for the data was created in March 2000, Treasury Department figures published yesterday showed. China's ownership of U.S. government bonds fell by 2.2 percent to $400 billion, the fastest pace since April 2002. Taiwan's slid 8.9 percent to $52 billion, the most since October 2000. >>
<< <i>Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may ``plunge'' in 2008, prompting the U.S., the European Union and Japan to intervene in foreign exchange markets, said Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's former top currency official.
“If the Asians have stopped buying then who is buying??
Uncle Ben is!!!!!”
No doubt this is what is happening, so we were printing $750 MILLION per day in just $100 bills at two mints, and now all we have to do is increase that to about 3.5 BILLION per day to cover this short fall in the next 12 months. Hey, no problemo just order more printing presses, and while they are at it they better order extra presses so when these wear out they will not miss any days of printing because that would be a real disaster!
Now lets see if you are printing 750 MILLION and you start printing 3.5 BILLION, and the inflation rate you are publishing is 2.5 percent, does that mean the rate is now 11.5%?
Our job now should be to find out just what companies the Asians are going to buy with the Trillion. The Asian stock markets are already extremely over valued compared to ours, so we can assume with the cheap dollar they will buy our companies. At 10 billion per company they should be able to buy control of about 100 of our better companies. After that they can start working on the other several Trillion they want to get ride of.
And what about Gold? Well perhaps some, but this market is so volatile now to the upside they must be careful not to push the price to high until they have their vaults full.
What would you buy if you had a Trillion in CASH? Not the U.S. Banks, they have as many problems as the Feds!
Just as a point of curiosity, one of my elderly friends, that was for 20 years the CEO of an NYSE company, sent me an email this morning and said he has moved his millions off shore to foreign capital accounts and brokerage firms. Have any of you noticed how often Peter Schiff, at Euro Capital, is on T.V. these days? CNBC and FOX used to avoid him like the plague, and now he has become on of their favorites.
<< <i>“If the Asians have stopped buying then who is buying??
Uncle Ben is!!!!!”
No doubt this is what is happening, so we were printing $750 MILLION per day in just $100 bills at two mints, and now all we have to do is increase that to about 3.5 BILLION per day to cover this short fall in the next 12 months. Hey, no problemo just order more printing presses, and while they are at it they better order extra presses so when these wear out they will not miss any days of printing because that would be a real disaster!
Now lets see if you are printing 750 MILLION and you start printing 3.5 BILLION, and the inflation rate you are publishing is 2.5 percent, does that mean the rate is now 11.5%?
Our job now should be to find out just what companies the Asians are going to buy with the Trillion. The Asian stock markets are already extremely over valued compared to ours, so we can assume with the cheap dollar they will buy our companies. At 10 billion per company they should be able to buy control of about 100 of our better companies. After that they can start working on the other several Trillion they want to get ride of.
And what about Gold? Well perhaps some, but this market is so volatile now to the upside they must be careful not to push the price to high until they have their vaults full.
What would you buy if you had a Trillion in CASH? Not the U.S. Banks, they have as many problems as the Feds!
Just as a point of curiosity, one of my elderly friends, that was for 20 years the CEO of an NYSE company, sent me an email this morning and said he has moved his millions off shore to foreign capital accounts and brokerage firms. Have any of you noticed how often Peter Schiff, at Euro Capital, is on T.V. these days? CNBC and FOX used to avoid him like the plague, and now he has become on of their favorites. >>
Your "point of curiosity" is one of the reasons Gold will not do what the gold bulls are saying. There is just way too many other places to put IT now.
"There is just way too many other places to put IT now. "
So, if I have a chair with 4 legs; gold/collectibles, cash, property and equities and they are about evenly distributed (bukulated), which area would you start puching inflow investment cash? Chime in...it would be an interesting study to get a feel for what folk are thinking.
I would put my money in property. I figure that can always make more of all of other 3 things, but they can't make more land unless they start leveling mountains and filling in the oceans. Once alchemy is perfected gold prices will drop real fast. jk
Well, oil broached $90/bl and gold has been holding $768 since Asia trading began. Could see it popping up above $770 in London ahead of the NY open making for one messy Friday and nervous weekend. But we shall see.
“Chime in...it would be an interesting study to get a feel for what folk are thinking.”
MH, It may be that many off us are using different process depending on where we are in the curve, and how we have prepared over the years.
In my case I am in a semi gambling phase playing the trends, the volatility, and following behind the manipulators as they move the market.
This is not something most folks would want to do, but if one has been preparing for all of this for years, and has satisfied all of their debt requirements, and hard asset requirements, this can be a fun and profitable game.
We have learned many interesting things here the last few years.
We know that the big money and governments move these markets as they will, and the “LONG TERM INVESTORS “ are simply at their mercy.
Here are some examples:
We know that Gold is constantly manipulated and should already be north of $2,000 per ounce if just adjusted for inflation.
We know that each time the interest rates are dropped in the U.S. the dollar tanks and oil, nat. gas. Coal, gold, and other resources increase in price to adjust.
We know that holding bonds, T-bills and too much cash is a real loser.
We know that the real rate of inflation is much higher than reported.
And we know that the big investment money moves from market to market picking up gains to overcome all these problems.
All of these things can be played by small investors just following these trends.
Small investors will not make as big a return as the big guys who manipulate the markets, but the moves are generally so big that one can hardly not make at least 50% per year on ones money if they are just paying attention, and a high rate of return is a must in today’s depreciating market just to keep up.
Personally I have not gotten gutsy enough to short certain sectors as they are manipulated down, but this has not been necessary over the last couple of months since I started doing this.
So here are some examples:
There are many large sector funds, ETF’S, and SPRD’S that one can use to move in and out of these markets, and one does not have to be a day trader to play these manipulations, just a trader.
GLD is a Gold ETF with billions of bars.
SLV is a silver ETF with billions of bars.
UNG is a Nat. Gas and heating oil ETF.
XLE is an oil energy SPDR
And there are many others, as well as very large cap. Stocks.
If we just use what we have learned here over the last few years an investor can move in and out of these trends as they develop. If one does not go short, and uses the stop loss mechanism provided by all brokers. This becomes an easy game to play.
Keeping up with any of the news on the financial shows we would know that the big money is moving into Tech. now as they have very little other places to go at the present time.
We also now that the “forecasters” are predicting high heating oil and Nat. Gas increases This winter. They are warning the public in advance that these markets are going to be manipulated up in the next few months to catch up with the increase in oil, inflation, etc. So while UNG is just setting there, watch what it does over the next couple of months.
Come the end of Oct. if the Fed lowers the rate, gold and oil, will move up once again But right now they are ready for a drop as next year is an election year, and the prices are very high. So in my situation I am out of those watching for the manipulation.
As I said this is not for everyone, but in my case I just got tried of making posts and not making any money!
One of the more sophisticated traders here gave me some good advice when I started. His comment was forget about holding these investments long term, and forget about reading all the financials etc.
What I have learned how to do the last few months is very simple.
First follow the trends and the big money.
Second learn to read at least a one-year chart to see if the buying or selling is up or down.
Third learn how to use a stop loss, and a trailing stop so you don’t lose much if you are wrong, and don’t loss your profits if the big guys move without notice.
Forth stay in big, billion dollar companies, or ETF’s that reflect the trends and are not manipulated independently.
Fifth, don’t be afraid to just go to all cash and just set for awhile if the markets get to weird or the trends are not formed.
Comments
Aw...all right, I'll tell a story, every word is true. It was a late July morning around 6:15 on a Sunday morning in the North side of Houston, just outside the loop, underneath the pines, in 1998. It was my second day of duty on a Habitat for Humanity project. We were building homes for folks that didn't have one, it was a good project that was very well orgnaized and high profile. I was in charge of getting the 40 or so sites planted and prettied up as they finished the houses.
I stepped off of the crew bus that picked me up at the common parking lot and we drove off into the light morning fog, the bus driver and me. The morning was warm with the sky just waiting to turn that beautiful Texas light blue in the pre dawn that was going to bring the sun flat on your back. The heat the day before had almost become incapacitating. Humidity 80%, temp around 100, no wind. I had a thermos with some coffee and decided to just walk to the assembly point about a quarter mile away, have a smoke, drink some coffee, check in, get organized.
Reflecting on the previous days effort at the site, I was getting my mind right . My work boots felt good walking across the pine needles below the pines...the fog was just lifting and the night was running west, the cool morning was changing and this day was going to be a bear. The nasty jeans I had on were left over from yesterday, I had my same denim shirt on, and my farming hat, a Bangora that was nice and flat and crisp wheat colored, getting my game face ready. There was another guy out there under the pines, walking kind of perpendicular to me. Had work boots, he was walking across the pine needle floor, he wore a gimme cap and had jeans and a light flannel (really) shirt on. Just looked like a guy doing the same thing I was. I figured he was probably a framer for one of the houses, out to get an early start.
We got closer, just this guy and I out in the pines in the early morning, kicking the fog up off the ground, going to work. We drew up on each other I looked up under his hat and it was Jimmy Carter. I quickly spoke "Good morning, Mr. President." He read my name tag and said "Good morning, Mike" He asked if I was headed to work on the houses and I said that I was and mentioned how hot it was yesterday but we got so much done. He started to respond and we both dropped the conversation to look at the sunrise. It broke the ground and lept up, chasing itself through the pines...yepper, it was gonna be a hot one. I looked at President Carter, he had an orange glow on his face, his eyes were clear and bright, his white hair shared the color of the sun on his face. Ladies and Gentlemen, the President of the United States of America. Amazing, just he and I; no security, no assistants, no media, no managers...just he and I. We just stood there, in the quiet of the morning, no one else even near us, looking at the sunrise, being quiet with each other, just watching, getting ready for the day. He reached over and held my hand, just for a second, almost like a sideways handshake.
As the new day broke, we faced each other, shook hands wished each other good luck and we continued on our paths...people were starting to show up. It was time to go to work!
"You have to admit, the peanut farmer was a disaster." It's hard for me to do that.
test post.
edited to add: after my reply i can now see them. sorry for
the extra post. odd.
Uff Da!!
I've been quoted
<< <i>c'mon, it's msnbc. Nuff sed
Yeah, lets see what Fox news has to say.
Social Security is the primary issue I have with FDR. Yes, he did do many things that were needed at the time, but continuing socialism isn't the answer. It's never worked anywhere before and it's slowly ruining us.
Wow..............the most successful government program in US history and you’ve got a problem with it? The only program that has kept millions of people from living in gutters and becoming a complete burden on their offspring and society. I guess you made your money and everyone else should too. >>
Fox News? Is that supposed to be a reference to me? I watch Fox very rarely, I find myself watching CNN more and more just to see how slanted the mainstream media actually is.
Let's see now..... Hmm, a less than 1% return on the people's money is the MOST successful? People were better off before SS, do a little study on our history.
Better yet, just look into what the City of Galveston has done since they dropped out of SS in 1979.
Social Security has been the most perfect pyramid scheme in history as the victims hadn't even been born yet.
NO, I haven't "made my money" as you say. If I could retire today I'd do so. I recently purchased an existing company and went over a half mil in debt in the process. I sure as Hell wouldn't do that if I already had what I need for the future. The SS program has kept people in slavery to the Federal Government and worse yet, it's all been spent. Please explain how giving away SS dollars to illegal aliens and all the other programs it was NEVER supposed to be used for is successful. Several years ago, I had become friends with my cleaning lady and she told me how her parents had just reached 65 and were coming from El Salvador to the US to retire. They would immediately draw nearly 2K per month having never put a single penny into the program. Sure they are illegal, but that doesn't matter to our half baked Socialist leaning politicians.
They have now been here for over 12 years, still illegal, and are planning on buying a small home in the near future, one they will pass dpwn to their daughter. Tell me again how SS is such a wonderful program? They have lived in HUD sponsored housing, again subsidized by SS money. Could I get one of those good deals? Not a chance in Hell. I spent years refurbishing apartment complexes and they would only rent to illegals. Sorry, but that's a fact. I spent many years on those projects and I know what I am talking about. No, the law doesn't say that, but the bureaucrats who run the program do as they see fit and all are still holdovers from the Clinton Administration. Henry Cisneros put that policy in as director of HUD. I once had to shake hands with the guy for a photo op. I needed a shower afterward. I could tell hours and hours of stories about the graft and waste of SS money on those projects.
We are being raped by our elected and appointed masters and to think anything else is simply foolish.
You, my friend, are beyond naive.
I'd be more than happy to have all my money refunded right now with no interest whatsoever. A monkey could do better with his retirement program than SS has done for US citizens.
It has done nothing to keep people from living in gutters, but it has assured that the average income earners have little to no hope in creating a real retirement plan. Years ago, regular people still had money left over for charities and their church and that, along with families was how the elderly were taken care of. It instilled a sense of value in the people. The government has been doing all they can for decades now to destroy those values. Making the people beholding to the Government has been the goal since FDR's days and while we may live better today, we don't have the values that made this country what it was, the best country in the world.
Tell us again how Socialism works so well and why we need it. I think we could all use the laugh.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>“The hourly wage of the average American is slightly lower now than it was in 1970, about -5%
However, pay of the average CEO has increased around 1000%. In 1970 it was less than 30 times the average pay, and is now almost 300 times the average pay.”
I wish I knew where all these numbers come from?
During the recent negotiations with the UAW the news reported that the average UAW worker made $76.00 per hour with benefits. I am the CEO of my small company and I am making $43.75 per hour and have not had a raise in 6 years.
“ Interesting read.”
COHODK,
I wonder why none of these writers point out that the reason everyone’s wallets are empty is because we pay 60% of our income in Taxes.
Just for a little fun I bought a used Harley a few weeks back. Paid $10,000 for it, and registered it today and paid $713 in sales Taxes.
This in this morning, sent to me by a friend who was in high school in 1955. In all of Human history have things ever changed so drastically?
"I'll tell you one thing, if things keep going the way they are, it's going to be impossible to buy a week's groceries for $20."
"Have you seen the new cars coming out next year? It won't be long before $2000 will only buy a used one."
"If cigarettes keep going up in price, I'm going to quit. A quarter a pack is ridiculous."
"Did you hear the post office is thinking about charging a dime just to mail a letter?"
"If they raise the minimum wage to $1, nobody will be able to hire outside help at the store."
"When I first started driving, who would have thought gas would someday cost 29 cents a gallon. Guess we'd be better off leaving the car in the garage."
I’m afraid to send my kids to the movies any more. Ever since they let Clark Gable get by with saying 'damn' in 'Gone With The Wind,' it seems every new movie has either "hell" or "damn" in it.
"Did you see where some baseball player just signed a contract for $75,000 a year just to play ball? It wouldn't surprise me if someday they'll be making more than the president."
"It's too bad things are so tough nowadays.
I see where a few married women are having to work to make ends meet."
"It won't be long before young couples are going to have to hire someone to watch their kids so they can both work."
"Thank goodness I won't live to see the day when Governments take half our income in taxes. I sometimes wonder if we are electing the best people to government."
"There is no sense going to Lincoln or Omaha anymore for a weekend. It costs nearly $15 a night to stay in a hotel"
"No one can afford to be sick any more; $35 a day in the hospital is too rich for my blood."
"If they think I'll pay 50 cents for a hair cut, forget it." >>
I made similiar comments way in the beginning of this thread. Yes, we do have problems, but we always have and always will. America will find a way to cure its ills. It may just time some time though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i><< “The hourly wage of the average American is slightly lower now than it was in 1970, about -5% >>
That's total bull. In 1972 I worked in a steel mill in Ohio. I made $4 an hour and it was considered a good wage. Some guys were raising families on it.
His numbers showed Social Security gave a higher return.
Data About Social Security Return
The article makes the point of not mistaking social security for an investment vehicle. It was never meant to be one. It was meant to be an insurance policy. As we all know, insurance policies have different rates of return than equities.
The article also mentions that Britain's privatized social security scheme is doing so badly they may have to throw additional money at it.
Chile went to a privatized social security system and had problems.
Chile's social security system
Your anecdotal evidence does not represent the overall pay trends in America.
<< <i>As we all know, insurance policies have different rates of return than equities. >>
Especially when the premiums are spent on other things.
<< <i>"You have to admit, the peanut farmer was a disaster."
Aw...all right, I'll tell a story, every word is true......... "You have to admit, the peanut farmer was a disaster." It's hard for me to do that. >>
I was referring to his Presidency. I think he means well and probably meant well. The fact is, his policies put millions out of work and are the root cause of the Islamic fascist problems we now live with. He also believed Kim Jong Il and gave them nuclear reactors on behalf of Bill Clinton. How may disasters does one need to see what this clown has done to our nation's security?
Not to mention that the Red Chinese Army now has control of the Panama Canal and that is solely on him. No one else.
I'd love to have the opportunity to spend a few minutes with him. I doubt he'd enjoy it though. Truth can be a nasty mistress.
Glad you enjoyed your sunrise with that bumbling idiot. History hasn't and won't be as kind as you were, nor should it be.
When Habitat for Humanity actually awards homes to people based on need and not racial preferences, let me know.
I don't expect to hear otherwise, while Jimmy's heart may be in the right place, his head is up his ***. He actually believed th Ayatollah's lies and we have been paying for that ever since. The blood of many American soldiers killed in Iraq is on his hands.
He hasn't even come close to making up for the damage he did to this nation. It's no accident he is regularly rated as one of, if not the, worst President in our history.
I still remember 444 days of hostages and his inability to act. He was in way over his head and frozen with fear from what those around him at the time say. I also remember 20%+ interest rates, gas rationing and long lines and our economy virtually shutting down.
Those were very tough time for me as someone who had a new family and babies to feed. Thanks to his policies I went from making 80K to zero almost overnight. Sorry, but I will always feel differently. It was the silver from my former coin collection that kept a roof over my family's head.
BTW, you weren't alone. The SS had you squarely in their sights the entire time, bet on it.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I didn't know Carter started the Iraq War! Amazing what you learn on these forums.
<< <i>Here is one guy who studied the return from Social Security vs. the Stock Market.
His numbers showed Social Security gave a higher return.
Data About Social Security Return >>
Anecdotal evidence at best. But here's the kicker. Let's suppose this gentleman dies next week. Will his heirs be able to inherit the SS funds?
Not on your life and you know it. Had he invested privately, the fund would actually belong to him and his heirs as well. That alone negates this nonsense.
Still waiting to hear how Socialism is the best system.
Why not let people decide which system they would like for their money? I'll tell you why...... the Government doesn't believe it's your money. They believe they own all of us, lock stock and barrel.
Would you allow people to decide for themselves? Or like Bill Clinton once said, the Government doesn't believe the people are able to make decisions on their own. Which side are you on?
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>> The blood of many American soldiers killed in Iraq is on his hands.
I didn't know Carter started the Iraq War! Amazing what you learn on these forums. >>
Even more amazing what some fail to learn. I guess 1979 must be ancient history to you. Therein lies the beginning.
Know what an IED is? Do you have a clue where they come from?
Just how young are you? You've got to be a product of our modern public school systems.
Still waiting on your defense of Socialism.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Anecdotal evidence seems to be the norm on these boards.
I mentioned how SS was never meant to be an investment vehicle. It is an insurance system.
Some people pay into insurance their entire lives and never collect a thing. Others collect more than they put in.
Shared pain and shared benefit. Kinda like the road systems, the nation's defense costs, the sewer systems, public water systems, garbage collection, police forces, parks, etc.
Now you can explain to me how Carter started the Iraq War.
/ i may as well try to play devil's advocate so as to educate myself
about the "enemy". ;-)
We have among us a class of mammon worshippers, whose one test of conservatism or radicalism is the attitude one takes with respect to accumulated wealth. Whatever tends to preserve the wealth of the wealthy is called conservatism, and whatever favors anything else, no matter what is called socialism.
/ we need to be more thoughtful towards new ideas and socialism
is a neat ideal to dream of. lets not throw the baby out with the
bath water when discussing new ideas. i wonder why socialism is
so hated when it has such possibilities.
“If you wish to prosper, let your customer prosper. When people have learned this lesson, everyone will seek his individual welfare in the general welfare. Then jealousies between man and man, city and city, province and province, nation and nation, will no longer trouble the world.”
/ i am reading the quote above and i think it is a key idea to
socialism's success. We often discuss a coin deal where the dealer
and the customer are happy. I wonder what details of the situation
are key to that feeling of both parties and how to make it more wide
spread.
“The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended.”
/ i wonder if socialism is so hard to understand and accept as a
possibility that even the people who defend it are having trouble
wrapping their heads around it.
“Under capitalism man exploits man; under socialism the reverse is true.”
“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.”
“The meaning of peace is the absence of opposition to socialism.”
“Many people consider the things which government does for them to be social progress, but they consider the things government does for others as socialism”
“Socialism is the abolition of human self-alienation, the return of man as a real human being.”
--------
after reading online for the last few hours about socialism i have
to admit it seems like a good idea but humans are not ready for it.
we have a scarcity problem to deal with and a lack of understanding
for our neighbors. i am guilty myself. my thoughs keep going back
to the new testament and what would jesus do.. we are currently
rewarding greed in our society. jesus was a socialist i suppose.
<< <i> it has been this way for years..speacialists, too what's in a name? just because billy-bob ain't there or tiffany doesn't mean they ain't good....grammar intentional
what are "America's best" choosing? >>
Good question. And good point, as we have trained some VERY FINE international doctors-- it may take us 5 years instead of 3 before turning them loose on you fine folks, but we are doing it. And you're right, I apologize for any hasty generalizations about International Medical Graduates to the negative. We take each doctor case by case; but overall in comparisons re: standardized test scores AND real-time clinical observation testing, the IMGs don't come close to American Medical Graduates. Sorry if that offends anyone. Often, that's why they couldn't get into American Medical Schools in the first place.
Also, This is at taxpayer's expense through Graduate Medical Education funding/ not-for-profit hospital passthroughs. Remember, 2 extra years+, to get them up to speed. It's alot of GOLD and SILVER folks.
Our frustration as post-graduate education faculty is that standards are very low-- we're doing a a TON of undergraduate and med school level instruction that these folks aren't getting when they show up (in addition to teaching them English, how to navigate our society and not get ripped off, etc). So they are not really MDs functionally (as American med school grads). So, more and more each year, re: your intern in a teaching hospital in July... you better hope they have an upper level resident or an attending like me looking closely over their shoulder.
I don't exactly know where 'America's best' are: I have a hunch they are in business somewhere, or in law school. Sure, some are still subspecialzing.
BUT... I bet.... They probably have 50% of their holdings in $350 or less gold right now
Don
PM me if you have any questions/comments on this as I don't want to further detract from this thread or contribute to it going poof.
I understand now. You're mixing up Iran and Iraq.
> Know what an IED is? Do you have a clue where they come from?
From insurgents. The Germans before WWII developed the science of shaped charges. The technology is old and isn't too hard to improvise. There is the matter of hundreds of tons of Iraq weapon caches that were left unguarded, and pillaged, after the invasion in 2003. They are certainly a source of explosives that have been used against us.
> Just how young are you? You've got to be a product of our modern public school systems.
I'm not sure how, or if, a personal attack helps your argument.
> Still waiting on your defense of Socialism.
I provided lots of evidence for the points I have been trying to make on this thread. I've never "defended socialism". I don't know where you got that idea.
What I recall from a couple decades ago is that a lot of bright people (and others) flooded the law schools due to the popularity of L.A. Law. So we have a lot of lawyers....really productive huh? At the same time, a lot of midcareer boomers in offices hit the night schools for MBAs. Engineer numbers were dropping off, particularly outside the computer-related disciplines (like civil engineering). I know physics gradute programs were imbalanced with foreign students. American PhD candidates were in the minority and often couldn't do pure research as they got railroaded into the government contract work that required citizenship, the asset the foreigner students couldn't bring to the table. Lots of people also went into high tech and still do; there's a vacuum to fill. A huge part of that crowd is a huge mismatch, just there for the opportunity but with little aptitude for the job. The peer frustration from that sours it for the good ones.
Not sure where the truly best and brightest are ending up anymore, but I bet they aren't as satisfied as in the past. My guess is in medicine their talent is often prioritized below their adherence to business protocol. Some MDs I have casually spoke wth on topics like this pretty much confirm this. In commercial technical, I do know many are frustrated by management that doesn't appreciate their inputs in many, many organizations, but certainly not all.
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401K... provides control over investments, a pool of money that will be yours
or your heirs. This has the defect of depending upon your willingness or ability,
in placing sizable contributions into the plan for an extended time line until retirement.
Fixed benefit pension.... This is is a rapidly disappearing type of pension as it is more costly
to the employer due to funding liabilities. Also, if the pension is underfunded and the company
goes bankrupt, or the the bankrupt company converted the assets into company stock, then your
pension is kaput. You must depend upon the Government reinsurance plan which offers no health
coverage and usually far smaller pension benefits.
Soc Sec...This is a dependable insurance plane that is calculated solely upon your earnings
for a set period of time. It also provides benefits to your spouse, even if your spouse has never
worked. Further in the case of your untimely demise, benefits are paid to the surviving dependents.
Savings...This is a factor that may or may not exist outside of the 401K.
All in all, retirement and its benefits are dependent on long term planning, discipline, a measure
of financial sacrifice during ones work career. Social Security is only a part of an overall plan. Some
times, a person may have to change jobs many times over a work career and may not have the
opportunity to benefit from 40lKs , pensions or retirement savings. Divorces, personal tragedies,
disability, natural disasters may destroy or prevent a person from adequately prepare for retirement.
In that case, Social Security may be the largest, if not only, retirement benefit.
Private investment in stocks and or bonds and mutual funds....Again this may or may not exist
outside of your 401K.
Assets....Home, rental properties, art, coin and stamp collections ect, ect......Again some folks may or
may not have paid off the mortgage..refinancing for the kids college or medical costs may leave the retire still burdened with a mortgage. Other folks may be renters all of their lives.
Camelot
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<< <i>Soc Sec...This is a dependable insurance plane that is calculated solely upon your earnings
for a set period of time. It also provides benefits to your spouse, even if your spouse has never
worked. Further in the case of your untimely demise, benefits are paid to the surviving dependents. >>
To be fair, those are reduced benifits. My Mother learned that lesson.
Further, as an heir, I will receive nothing. Dependents only applies to minor children.
Comparing SS to privately owned retirement programs is apples and oranges.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>I'm not sure how, or if, a personal attack helps your argument. >>
Not a personal attack at all, sorry you took that way. I'm just trying to understand how one could have such an odd logic process.
Just name one single nation where socialism has worked, please. I'm not aware of any that have survived.
Interesting bit of American history
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
They are different components to an overall program.
Not all folks have the ability, the means or the discipline
to provide for their own retirement. It would seem that
a lot of folks are "Too late smart..and too soon old".
Camelot
<< <i>a lot of folks are "Too late smart..and too soon old".
Truer words, Bear. Truer words.
I confess to a bit of that myself, but then raising children as a single parent will keep your wallet fairly lean. Rushing fast now to make up for lost time.
On topic......... gold is making a strong push in overseas trading tonight.
One more interesting read Real story of Thanksgiving
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Dear Friends,
Prepare to defend yourselves. We have crossed over the part of the gold runway where there is no alternative but to take it into the sky. This thing is coming apart faster than you know. Everything gold will take off with it. About that have no doubt.
Japan and China lead flight from the dollar
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,
International Business Editor
Last Updated: 1:09am BST 17/10/2007
"Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright China threatens `nuclear option' of dollar sales Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: This bear is not capitulating"
Japan and China led a record withdrawl of foreign funds from the United States in August, heightening fears of a fresh slide in the dollar and a spike in US bond yields.
Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright China threatens `nuclear option' of dollar sales Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: This bear is not capitulating
The US requires $70bn a month in capital inflows to cover its current account deficit
Data from the US Treasury showed outflows of $163bn (£80bn) from all forms of US investments. "These numbers are absolutely stunning," said Marc Ostwald, an economist at Insinger de Beaufort.
Asian investors dumped $52bn worth of US Treasury bonds alone, led by Japan ($23bn), China ($14.2bn) and Taiwan ($5bn). It is the first time since 1998 that foreigners have, on balance, sold Treasuries.
Mr Ostwald warned that US bond yields could start to rise again unless the outflows reverse quickly. "Woe betide US Treasuries if inflation does not remain benign," he said.
The release comes a day after the IMF warned that the dollar was still overvalued and likely to face "some depreciation in the medium term".
The dollar's short-lived rally over recent days stopped abruptly on the data, increasing pressure on US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to shore up Washington's "strong dollar" rhetoric at the G7 summit this week.
The Greenback has already fallen below parity against the Canadian Loonie for the first time since 1976 and has touched record lows against a global basket. It closed at $2.032 against the pound.
David Woo, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said Washington was happy to see the dollar slide. "They don't care so long as the fall is not disorderly. They see it as a way of correcting the deficit. " he said.
Mr Woo said a chunk of the August outflows may have come from foreigners borrowing in the US during the liquidity crunch to meet needs in euros. "We think it may be a one-off," he said.
The US requires $70bn a month in capital inflows to cover its current account deficit, but the key sources of finance are drying up one by one.
BNP Paribas said America has relied on "hot money" from abroad to cover 25pc to 30pc of the US short-term credit and commercial paper market over the last two years.
This flow is now in danger after the seizure in parts of the market over the summer and after the Federal Reserve's half point rate cut, which has shaved the US yield advantage over other countries.
Ian Stannard, a Paribas currency analyst, said the data was "extremely negative" for the dollar. "It exceeds the worst fears. It is not just foreigners who are selling US assets. Americans are turning their back as well," he said.
Central banks in Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam have all begun to cut purchases of US bonds, or signalled an intent to do so. In effect, they are giving up trying to hold down their currencies because the policy is starting to set off inflation.
The Treasury data would have been even worse if it had not been for $60bn of inflows from hedge funds based in Britain and the Caymans, which needed to cover US positions at the height of the credit crunch
Don't fault Carter for that mess. The problems in the 1976-1980 period were pre-determined by Johnson and Nixon. Johnson taught us how to spend uncontrollably and Nixon took us off gold. The mix of those 2 set up the run of commodities/real assets and the drop in paper assets. The stock market peaked in 1966 and what followed was just a normal equities down cycle....accentuated by removing the gold link. If the 1970's were a burden to us, you may not like what's coming at us in the 2010's.
In just the few years since this thread started, total derivatives have doubled or tripled, something like $150 TRILL to $450 TRILL.
But in one sense, it's like atomic bombs. You can blow up the world with just a small number, yet we have thousands around the world.
$150 TRILL in bad paper can completely blow up the financial system. So 3X that is just insurance I guess.
roadrunner
It is probably not worth discussing politics with someone who mixes up Iran and Iraq, or who is constantly creating Strawmen for me to "defend".
I'll look for your coin posts in the future. Meanwhile, perhaps you can learn more about the difference between the letters "Q" and "N".
Remember what Ford proposed a solution to the problem of Stagflation: having Americans all wear WIN buttons!
Let's just dispense with the political correctness and call it what it is, "the islamic war against free people."
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I didn't know Carter started the Iraq War! Amazing what you learn on these forums.
Let's just dispense with the political correctness and call it what it is, "the islamic war against free people." >>
Saddam Hussein was hardly an ardent Muslim. He was no boy scout, for certain, but does anyone seriously nelieve all that rhetoric still that we went to Iraq to stop al Qaida?
Can we please get back to coins now?
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Something old:
Something new:
Something shared:
Something cool:
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER, Associated Press Writer Mon Oct 15, 7:23 PM ET
“Kathleen Casey-Kirschling applied for benefits over the Internet at an event hosted by Astrue. Casey-Kirschling was born one second after midnight on Jan. 1, 1946, gaining her recognition as the first baby boomer — a generation of nearly 80 million born from 1946 to 1964, Astrue said.
An estimated 10,000 people a day will become eligible for Social Security benefits over the next two decades, Astrue said. The Social Security trust fund, if left alone, is projected to go broke in 2041.”
So how much money printing is this just for S.S.? If the average Boomer gets $1,000 per month and 10,000 new people apply each day that’s $10 million each day added to the rolls.
One of you math geniuses help me out here, how much new money do the Feds have to print each year to keep up with this? For now we can just forget about all the folks already on the payroll.
All this may go broke a lot faster than Astrue estimates if we cannot sell debt to Foreigners!
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, China and Taiwan sold U.S. Treasuries at the fastest pace in at least five years in August as losses linked to U.S. sub-prime mortgages sparked a slump in the dollar.
Japan cut its holdings by 4 percent to $586 billion, the most since a new benchmark for the data was created in March 2000, Treasury Department figures published yesterday showed. China's ownership of U.S. government bonds fell by 2.2 percent to $400 billion, the fastest pace since April 2002. Taiwan's slid 8.9 percent to $52 billion, the most since October 2000.
Asia's dumping of Treasuries exacerbated the biggest sell- off in U.S. financial assets since Russia defaulted in 1998. The dollar has declined by 7.2 percent this year to a record low against the euro as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month to support the housing market, reducing the yield advantage of U.S. fixed income assets."
Someone was buying these at a near record pace because the rate on the 10 yr treasury fell from 5.25% to 4.40% from July-Sept. TWhen rates go down, prices go up. Price will go up when there is demand. And in this case there was a lot of demand.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Is the USA buying it back?
What 'currency' are they using to 'buy'? Gold? Their own debt instruments?, something else?
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
<< <i>So who is buying it?
Is the USA buying it back?
What 'currency' are they using to 'buy'? Gold? Their own debt instruments?, something else? >>
There is HUGE demand for USA debt. It is bought by anyone who has money no matter what the currency. Much is bought by USA citizens. Much is bought by foreign governments. Much is bought by corporations domestic and abroad. Dispite our faults, the USA is still the greatest country in the world. If you dont believe me then you must travel abroad. Go to China, see how great life is there. Go to Russia, see how great life is there. Go to India or Brazil, or Saudi Arabia, or Poland, go ahead, see how GREAT you have it right here in the good 'ole USA.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Do you think the Federal Reserve is restricted from buying T-Bills at auction with newly created money??
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ax3sjWzArMQk&refer=home
<< <i>Japan cut its holdings by 4 percent to $586 billion, the most since a new benchmark for the data was created in March 2000, Treasury Department figures published yesterday showed. China's ownership of U.S. government bonds fell by 2.2 percent to $400 billion, the fastest pace since April 2002. Taiwan's slid 8.9 percent to $52 billion, the most since October 2000. >>
And why is this such a crisis??
Lets see??? $586b + $400b + $52b = $1.038 Trillion.
That $1 Trillion in bonds these countries own is enough money to run the U.S. Government for less than half a year.
It's peanuts.
Uncle Ben is!!!!!
<< <i>Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may ``plunge'' in 2008, prompting the U.S., the European Union and Japan to intervene in foreign exchange markets, said Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's former top currency official.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ax3sjWzArMQk&refer=home >>
Link
The government buying their own securities should be the ultimate
in pushing on a string. It wouldn't work.
“If the Asians have stopped buying then who is buying??
Uncle Ben is!!!!!”
No doubt this is what is happening, so we were printing $750 MILLION per day in just $100 bills at two mints, and now all we have to do is increase that to about 3.5 BILLION per day to cover this short fall in the next 12 months. Hey, no problemo just order more printing presses, and while they are at it they better order extra presses so when these wear out they will not miss any days of printing because that would be a real disaster!
Now lets see if you are printing 750 MILLION and you start printing 3.5 BILLION, and the inflation rate you are publishing is 2.5 percent, does that mean the rate is now 11.5%?
Our job now should be to find out just what companies the Asians are going to buy with the Trillion. The Asian stock markets are already extremely over valued compared to ours, so we can assume with the cheap dollar they will buy our companies.
At 10 billion per company they should be able to buy control of about 100
of our better companies. After that they can start working on the other several Trillion they want to get ride of.
And what about Gold? Well perhaps some, but this market is so volatile now to the upside they must be careful not to push the price to high until they have their vaults full.
What would you buy if you had a Trillion in CASH? Not the U.S. Banks, they have as many problems as the Feds!
Just as a point of curiosity, one of my elderly friends, that was for 20 years the CEO of an NYSE company, sent me an email this morning and said he has moved his millions off shore to foreign capital accounts and brokerage firms. Have any of you noticed how often Peter Schiff, at Euro Capital, is on T.V. these days?
CNBC and FOX used to avoid him like the plague, and now he has become on of their favorites.
<< <i>“If the Asians have stopped buying then who is buying??
Uncle Ben is!!!!!”
No doubt this is what is happening, so we were printing $750 MILLION per day in just $100 bills at two mints, and now all we have to do is increase that to about 3.5 BILLION per day to cover this short fall in the next 12 months. Hey, no problemo just order more printing presses, and while they are at it they better order extra presses so when these wear out they will not miss any days of printing because that would be a real disaster!
Now lets see if you are printing 750 MILLION and you start printing 3.5 BILLION, and the inflation rate you are publishing is 2.5 percent, does that mean the rate is now 11.5%?
Our job now should be to find out just what companies the Asians are going to buy with the Trillion. The Asian stock markets are already extremely over valued compared to ours, so we can assume with the cheap dollar they will buy our companies.
At 10 billion per company they should be able to buy control of about 100
of our better companies. After that they can start working on the other several Trillion they want to get ride of.
And what about Gold? Well perhaps some, but this market is so volatile now to the upside they must be careful not to push the price to high until they have their vaults full.
What would you buy if you had a Trillion in CASH? Not the U.S. Banks, they have as many problems as the Feds!
Just as a point of curiosity, one of my elderly friends, that was for 20 years the CEO of an NYSE company, sent me an email this morning and said he has moved his millions off shore to foreign capital accounts and brokerage firms. Have any of you noticed how often Peter Schiff, at Euro Capital, is on T.V. these days?
CNBC and FOX used to avoid him like the plague, and now he has become on of their favorites. >>
Your "point of curiosity" is one of the reasons Gold will not do what the gold bulls are saying. There is just way too many other places to put IT now.
So, if I have a chair with 4 legs; gold/collectibles, cash, property and equities and they are about evenly distributed (bukulated), which area would you start puching inflow investment cash? Chime in...it would be an interesting study to get a feel for what folk are thinking.
and increase cash.
Camelot
Gold is Good , may get a short squeeze going. But may also get caught in a selloff if equities fall fast..
Dollars are safe from sudden disaster but are a slow steady bleed (or maybe not so slow).
Foreign equities will depend on the determination of those countries to hold value. A strong currency is anti- export, Expect them to devalue also.
Bottom line is that the world bankers do not want you to escape thier inflation game so expect it to be difficult.
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“Chime in...it would be an interesting study to get a feel for what folk are thinking.”
MH,
It may be that many off us are using different process depending on where we are in the curve, and how we have prepared over the years.
In my case I am in a semi gambling phase playing the trends, the volatility, and following behind the manipulators as they move the market.
This is not something most folks would want to do, but if one has been preparing for all of this for years, and has satisfied all of their debt requirements, and hard asset requirements, this can be a fun and profitable game.
We have learned many interesting things here the last few years.
We know that the big money and governments move these markets as they will, and the “LONG TERM INVESTORS “ are simply at their mercy.
Here are some examples:
We know that Gold is constantly manipulated and should already be north of $2,000 per ounce if just adjusted for inflation.
We know that each time the interest rates are dropped in the U.S. the dollar tanks and oil, nat. gas. Coal, gold, and other resources increase in price to adjust.
We know that holding bonds, T-bills and too much cash is a real loser.
We know that the real rate of inflation is much higher than reported.
And we know that the big investment money moves from market to market picking up gains to overcome all these problems.
All of these things can be played by small investors just following these trends.
Small investors will not make as big a return as the big guys who manipulate the markets, but the moves are generally so big that one can hardly not make at least 50% per year on ones money if they are just paying attention, and a high rate of return is a must in today’s depreciating market just to keep up.
Personally I have not gotten gutsy enough to short certain sectors as they are manipulated down, but this has not been necessary over the last couple of months since I started doing this.
So here are some examples:
There are many large sector funds, ETF’S, and SPRD’S that one can use to move in and out of these markets, and one does not have to be a day trader to play these manipulations, just a trader.
GLD is a Gold ETF with billions of bars.
SLV is a silver ETF with billions of bars.
UNG is a Nat. Gas and heating oil ETF.
XLE is an oil energy SPDR
And there are many others, as well as very large cap. Stocks.
If we just use what we have learned here over the last few years an investor can move in and out of these trends as they develop. If one does not go short, and uses the stop loss mechanism provided by all brokers. This becomes an easy game to play.
Keeping up with any of the news on the financial shows we would know that the big money is moving into Tech. now as they have very little other places to go at the present time.
We also now that the “forecasters” are predicting high heating oil and Nat. Gas increases
This winter. They are warning the public in advance that these markets are going to be manipulated up in the next few months to catch up with the increase in oil, inflation, etc.
So while UNG is just setting there, watch what it does over the next couple of months.
Come the end of Oct. if the Fed lowers the rate, gold and oil, will move up once again
But right now they are ready for a drop as next year is an election year, and the prices are very high. So in my situation I am out of those watching for the manipulation.
As I said this is not for everyone, but in my case I just got tried of making posts and not making any money!
One of the more sophisticated traders here gave me some good advice when I started.
His comment was forget about holding these investments long term, and forget about reading all the financials etc.
What I have learned how to do the last few months is very simple.
First follow the trends and the big money.
Second learn to read at least a one-year chart to see if the buying or selling is up or down.
Third learn how to use a stop loss, and a trailing stop so you don’t lose much if you are wrong, and don’t loss your profits if the big guys move without notice.
Forth stay in big, billion dollar companies, or ETF’s that reflect the trends and are not manipulated independently.
Fifth, don’t be afraid to just go to all cash and just set for awhile if the markets get to weird or the trends are not formed.