yet IMHO gold will not hit the highs predicted, even if oil tops $101 a barrel which would equal the high in terms of VALUE compared to 1981. At that time we were spending 6% of our DI on gas now at $3 it is 4%...we'd have to hit $6 a gallon to equal our DI % of 1981. (and that was with inflation running ummmm...kinda high, remember?)
GOLD is NOT what it once was the market (WORLD) is too diverse, world curriencies are mow traded in 100's of billions of dollars per day. Gold is good but Gold is not what it once meant. Sure I wish I had bought some earlier, but other commodities will show steady growth greater than gold will. greins especially corn is the "new" gold.
if you are getting in (gold now) be quick to turn. if you had bought a few weeks ago.....take it and run awhile.
when Joe Lunchbox descides it's time to buy gold SELL!
Ha Ha ha, Well gentleman it has only taken the main business media 5 years to figure this out, but I think they have finally figured out the Gov./Fed is lying!
There's No Inflation (If You Ignore Facts)
By Daniel Gross Newsweek Oct. 8, 2007 issue Imagine that a cardiologist told you that aside from the irregular heartbeat, the stratospheric cholesterol count and a little blockage in your aorta, your core heart functions are just fine.
That's precisely what the government's cardiologist—Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve—has just done. The central bank is supposed to make sure the economy grows fast enough to create jobs and make everybody richer, but not so fast that it produces inflation, which makes everybody poorer.
"core inflation"? That's Fedspeak for: inflation is under control, excluding the prices of food and energy, which can be volatile from month to month. Factor them in, and inflation is about as moderate as Newt Gingrich.
The CPI—including food and energy—has risen 12.6 percent since July 2003. Signs of inflation are evident throughout the economy. When investors fear a rising inflationary tide, they latch onto the driftwood of gold.
The day Bernanke cut rates, the price of the precious metal soared to heights not seen since 1980, when inflation ran at nearly 12 percent! I read about this in The Wall Street Journal (whose newsstand price rose 50 percent in July), which I picked up in the lobby of a New York hotel (where the average nightly rate soared 12.5 percent in the first seven months of 2007, while sipping on a Starbucks Frappuccino (whose price has risen twice since last October).
The Wall Street Journal noted that iron-ore producers are about to ask for a 50 percent price increase for 2008.
CNN MONEY By Elaine Pofeldt, FSB Magazine September 29 2007: 3:32 PM EDT
Applied Cognetics, a software development and online marketing firm based in Brooklyn, N.Y., has about $1 million in deposits in NetBank, an online bank with $2.5 billion in assets that regulators closed Friday because of an unsustainable level of mortgage defaults.
Although the FDIC insures bank deposits of up to $100,000, Applied Cognetics president Chris Colthrust and his four business partners aren't sure what will happen to the remainder of their account.
"Every penny I saved for the last 10 years was in this," said Colthrust, 39. "Basically all of our operating funds and accounts were in that bank. Everything we've worked for the last 2 years [could be] up in smoke."
NetBank customers with accounts exceeding the FDIC limit will become creditors in NetBank's receivership, the FDIC said Friday.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary Just in case you have not seen this. Internet finance is safe? How could they lose $900,000,000? That is real easy when over the counter derivatives are properly valued because in a meltdown. If that is all they lost, they got off easy.
Gee how long can these guys keep saying its sub-prime? Before long all these sub prime losses will exceed the number of houses sold under these mortgages. Lets call it what it is CREDIT DERIVITATES. These guys need to get busy writing this stuff down, or we are never going to get to Mr. Sinclair’s 20 trillion.
UBS becomes biggest victim of credit turmoil
By Peter Thal Larsen in London and David Wighton in New York Published: September 30 2007 23:59 | Last updated: October 1 2007 08:08
UBS announced the departure of its investment bank head as it warned that it has written off billions of dollars on fixed-income assets, making the Swiss banking group the biggest casualty so far of the turmoil in the global financial markets.
The bank said it had written down its fixed-income portfolio by SFr4bn ($3.4bn), mainly because of losses on US subprime mortgage-related securities, triggering a third-quarter loss of SFr600m-SFr800m.
The losses far exceed those reported so far by other investment banks. UBS said Huw Jenkins, who runs the investment banking business.
Yeah, methinks that subprime is going to be a whipping boy for all the ills of the money boys (the ones that got those millions in year end bonuses last year) and all the losses are going to be attributed to the subprimes, be they cdo's, carry trade busts, or just highly speculative gambles that played wrong. There have been some posts to this thread that have noted that the subprime and ailases are going to reach deeply into the financial markets and anything those markets touch and that indeed is showing up to be very true yet it seems to be early in the game.
There has been some news from the bug site (kitco gold forum) that there are a bunch of gold bars at the BOE that are defective. The responses seem to indicate that this may be a scare rumor to tweek the bug markets, or it may be true that the US gave them some bad gold, or it may be true that they were somehow switched, or it may be true that they just have some extra alloy in them so they cracked but the point of the discussion is that while the gold beneath Threadneedle Street has an assay stamp on it, it has no assay certificates so we have a bigggg mystery and a lot of gold. (can't link directly or I would)
These are certainly interesting times, it reminds me of the refrain from a country song about a beer joint that's playing right now..."beer, bait, and ammo, if you ask me they've got it all." Maybe, that is all we really need.
Gee how long can these guys keep saying its sub-prime? Before long all these sub prime losses will exceed the number of houses sold under these mortgages. Lets call it what it is CREDIT DERIVITATES. These guys need to get busy writing this stuff down, or we are never going to get to Mr. Sinclair’s 20 trillion.
UBS becomes biggest victim of credit turmoil
By Peter Thal Larsen in London and David Wighton in New York Published: September 30 2007 23:59 | Last updated: October 1 2007 08:08
UBS announced the departure of its investment bank head as it warned that it has written off billions of dollars on fixed-income assets, making the Swiss banking group the biggest casualty so far of the turmoil in the global financial markets.It appears that UBS is the only bank willing to admit to the true extent of their losses, unashamedly reorting a loss for the quarter and firing the person responsible.....The US banks are going to try and leak the bad news out over the next few quarters while they show a profit , albeit a smaller profit for these quarters . May be time to invest in UBS
The bank said it had written down its fixed-income portfolio by SFr4bn ($3.4bn), mainly because of losses on US subprime mortgage-related securities, triggering a third-quarter loss of SFr600m-SFr800m.
The losses far exceed those reported so far by other investment banks. UBS said Huw Jenkins, who runs the investment banking business. >>
Would somebody please tell these guys we do not want them to buy our debt anymore. How are we ever going to get off of the credit drug if they keep buying our debt?
Anyway once the dem’s are in control we can have trade sanctions and these foreigners can just keep all those lead coated toys, cheap shirt etc.
And who said we couldn’t go back to riding horses? We still have plenty of land to raise horses!
Remember when men were men, and the ladies stayed home and took care of the home and kids, no working ladies, no hand outs, just good old American self reliance, no debt, no credit cards, and beholding to know one, is everyone ready?
Dollar's double blow from Vietnam and Qatar Telegraph Media Group Limited 2007. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:12am BST 04/10/2007
Vietnam is planning to cut its purchases of US Treasuries and other dollar bonds, raising fears that Asian central banks with control over two thirds of the world's foreign reserves may soon join the flight from US assets.
Vietnam, which has mid-sized reserves of $40bn, is seen as weather vane for the bigger Asian powers. Together they hold $3,575bn of foreign reserves, over 65pc of the world's total. China leads with $1,340bn, but South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and even Thailand all built up massive holdings.
The concern is that once one or two members of the region jump ship, it could set off a broader scramble. None of them want to be the last one left holding a devalued asset. Vietnam's central bank said this week that it would move "gradually" to a floating currency.
Separately, the gas-rich Gulf state of Qatar announced that it had cut the dollar holdings of its $50bn sovereign wealth fund from 99pc to 40pc, switching into investments in China, Japan, and emerging Asia.
The drastic shift by the Qatar Investment Authority is a warning that petro-dollar powers with some $3,500bn under management may pull the plug on the heavily indebted US economy -- which needs to suck in the majority of the world's savings just to stay afloat.
I remember when women stayed at home and raised the kids. However, are they willing to give up all their cars except one, only have one telephone at home (no cell phones), one TV at home, a 1200 sf house...etc. We have consumed our way into needing two wage earners for the average family.
Most of my generation grew up with no air conditioning, one bathroom and one car. We were middle class. Now everyone has their own cell phone, computer, television, bedroom (how many kids today share a bedroom, it was quite common in my youth) and car if they are old enough to drive.
Many of the commentors here are gloom and doom, the sky is falling. Well, if you only debt is your house with a fixed rate mortgage, then the slide of the dollar has little effect on you. Our gas prices are already well below Europe due to their taxation in order to repress demand. We have gone back to the gigantic SUV in place of the big cars from the 70s, but the effect is the same.
If we quit spending obscene amounts of money occupying (yes, we have already won the war) a foreign country our balance sheet might look a lot better. Those major transfer payments kill the dollar in the long run and we have been financing this excursion longer than WWII.
Yes, your new Benz or Bimmer will be much more expensive next year. Just MHO.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
I wonder how many people who got burned by Netbank are against business regulation? The derivatives market is just Free Enterprise at its most Free! Ah, the irony.
And they can thank the fact they will get at least $100,000 back to that commie FDR.
Old quote: "A conservative is a Liberal who got mugged" (lost $100) New, more cogent, quote: "A liberal is a conservative who got mugged by Big Business" (lost life savings: Enron, Tyco, Netbank, etc)
This thread seems to have killed itself. Maybe we should archive the first year or so and reference it as a folder in this thread or something. I think the number of entries in this thread is just too long for the mechanics of our server to update and keep this thread functioning. Just my thoughts...any others, or is it just me having this situation? I wrote a short IM to SM but don't know if that was the proper way to administer this thread.
<< <i>This thread seems to have killed itself. Maybe we should archive the first year or so and reference it as a folder in this thread or something. I think the number of entries in this thread is just too long for the mechanics of our server to update and keep this thread functioning. Just my thoughts...any others, or is it just me having this situation? I wrote a short IM to SM but don't know if that was the proper way to administer this thread. >>
This will appear in your browser in 18 posts if you use the default settings. You can just change the last number to a six to get the last posts to appear. Sometimes the last post won't get a new page to start. ...Or you can "ttt" it for post count.
This has been a problem for years and they've looked at it before. The longer a thread gets the more likely the problem is to arise.
<< <i>If the world would stop buying our debt, our Government
might just have to be more careful how they spend our money.
People will once again have to learn the bitter truth that spending
must be accompanied by taxes adequate to balance the National budget.
We are all living in a dream world of economic prestidigitation ,that in the
long run is not sustainable. Republicans spend , borrow and print,
while Democrats spend and tax. What will it take to return to economic reality,
another major depression or just a whiff of hyper inflation? >>
I'm a young man, and was born when Vietnam was being fought over (1972), so I can't speak from experience of it, much less World War II. However, i'm a student of history both in books/documentaries as well as listening to my grandfathers that fought WWII. Back then, the nation knew it was at war, and acted like it. Rationing was the order of the day so as not to burden the economy with needless money printing that is happening today. I think the Bush administration wanted to run it's little tidy war with as few troops as possible and zero demands on the average citizen in the way of sacrificing. As a Marine Corps veteran, I see many of my friends sacrificing plenty over there, while the average American still lives pretty much the life of Riley. Sure, the economy will be hurting much more than it is very soon; you can't fight a very expensive war (much of it could have been avoided by not giving no-bid contracts to the likes of Halliburton, and well as the mercenary groups) without either raising taxes considerably or printing a ton of fiat money and getting more in debt. I have to laugh every time Bush and the Repubs talk about tax cuts, and keeping taxes low; meanwhile he turns around with his hand out to Congress for more and more money for this war. I'd much rather sacrifice with material possessions, and pay higher taxes, to avoid having HUGE amounts of war debt being saddled to my daughters.
I also think it is borderline comical that Qatar and others that these last three administrations have wooed, are finally realizing that they should jump ship on our dollar. We got in bed with regimes over there that are pitiful on human rights, hold too much power with petro-chemicals, and now we question how such people would not stand by our sinking dollar ship? i'm sure you'll see Paulsen and Bernake on their knees begging the shieks pretty soon to stop dumping our debt.
<< <i>. I'd much rather sacrifice with material possessions, and pay higher taxes, to avoid having HUGE amounts of war debt being saddled to my daughters.
. >>
And I would prefer freedom to your desires for whatever brands of socialism you seem to want.
<< <i>. I'd much rather sacrifice with material possessions, and pay higher taxes, to avoid having HUGE amounts of war debt being saddled to my daughters.
. >>
And I would prefer freedom to your desires for whatever brands of socialism you seem to want. >>
"Is gold moving up today in anticipation of a Fed rate cut???"
There is a lot of activity in the gold market right now, there is a war going on. To get a better feel for the fight look at the kitco site under forums, particularly the gold discussion group on "gold's action". DYODD here, there is a lot of activity and a number of forces that can influence what happens. These folk are traders and are short term players, so don't get into some kind of knee jerk reaction to what they say and they talk in acronyms a lot so enjoy it for what it's worth.
My take...the dollar is dropping against world currencies and the EU is beating on the Chinese to raise the value of their currency against other world currencies because the balance of trade with the Chinese is getting bad for the EU too and their euro is getting pounded. The USD folk tried to get the Chinese to up their currency value against other world currencies and the Chinese told us to "Pound sand". It appears that the Chinese will have to attone for their sins if the form of doing something with their currency because they are creating great trade imbalances in exchange for cheap products. In this flight to protect currencies, folk are buying gold. The interesting part of this is that gold is priced in USD, not yuans or euros or yen. Euro/Yuan situation
There are other issues with gold, namely the paper trade where someone issues a certificate for PM and not the PM. The problem is these certificates were purchased at a much lower price than the current price of gold (POG). Mines that forward sold known reserves a few years ago give paper in lieu of PM and now that is coming to a head because they have issued a lot of paper for gold (in the ground) that the mines do not have in hand so there's a problem that is even more acute because gold is rising so high...people want their PM or their money, not some stinkin' certificate. The other problem is this paper was sold when gold was in the 400's and now it's nearing 800 so there is a problem here.
Another issue is the currency carry trade. This is where you borrow some money in say Japan at 1% and then buy US treasuries or loans at 5% and carry the 4% as profit...sneaky 'eh? The problem is that when the currencies and lending rates get "adjusted", the people that have these carry trade situations become a little more vulnerable and people that do these kinds of deals don't like to be vulnerable...it's about the money so people like stores of value, like gold to carry them over turbulent waters. The fed rate cut situation is just a minor diversion but it does affect currencies and the carry trade so there could be some gold movement come out of this.
And here we are, in the midst of a great battle. We can't watch the actual war other than read the news articles but we can see the score...POG.
So, will it go up...seems like it should. How high will it go...hard to say. If you don't have PM, and you just have to get in the water, buy some dated US gold coins. Once you see the lines out the door of the coin shop...it's way too late. I have noticed that Kitco used to get $25 over spot for an oz and now they are getting $40 (before shipping) so they are seeing a little pressure too. For those with PM...life is good.
<< <i>When a Nation is involved in a War that will
extend for several decades, it is necessary for
all that Nation's Citizens to share in the burden.
Rationing, war tax, blood drives, scrap drives, war bonds.
In addition, the government should be assuming a more prudent
attitude, as it pertains to spending in general. It is not possible for
the general population to go on as if everything is normal. Things are not
normal and the impending shortage in natural resources, lack of financial reserves
and the lowly status of the dollar, have not seem to have impinged on the National
psychi. >>
AMEN TO THAT!
i say that sort of thing, and i'm labeled as a 'Socialist'; these types of comments are stuck on those of us that are young, and usually by old, rich guys that don't want their gravy train to leave the station. after all, what do they care if my kids will be saddled with debt and be subservant to the Chinese, they'll be dead anyway?! I find it ironic that those of us with common sense in the vein of spending (or lack of) and debt are labeled as kooks by those that are supposed to be 'Conservatives'. These past few years, the 'Conservatives' can't seem to conserve anything, whether it is the environment, tax revenue, or constitutional rights.
Hope everyone has had fun trading the last few weeks. Wow!! What incredible asset inflation we have enjoyed--10% increase in gold and equities. Amazing.
And no one will lose a penny at Netbank. Your taxes will be put towards good work.
From 1941 until now the American taxpayer has paid with it's wealth and blood to defend the free world. Since WWll we have been on a binge to export jobs and import people to put on the welfare rolls. The Democrats want them as voters and the Republicans as cheap labor. The truth is they are not cheap when you add up the auxiliary costs. Nothing is going to change until we regain control over immigration and imports. The real reason for Tariffs is to protect the home market and equalize production cost. In the end we can't support the whole world and the whole world can't live in the U.S.
what has been amazing me is the way that gold and silver have been recovering from the manipulated sell-offs....
The last one a week or two ago dropped all the metals a good chunk. But the loss was just a brief blip and they were climbing out of the dip almost immediately; the manipuilators may have lost their hold on the metals finally
what has been amazing me is the way that gold and silver have been recovering from the manipulated sell-offs
If it was manipulated, why is it only manipulated to the downside? A good trader would make money trading both ways. Why would they give up 50% of the opportunity?
> oops, you conveniently left Worldcom off your list. Oh wait, that involved the former head of the DNC
To be fair, he has Enron on his list. Their first phone call for a bailout went to the Demicrats, even though Bush was in the White House. So he should get some credit for including Demicrat crooks with his Republican jab.
<< <i>what has been amazing me is the way that gold and silver have been recovering from the manipulated sell-offs
If it was manipulated, why is it only manipulated to the downside? A good trader would make money trading both ways. Why would they give up 50% of the opportunity? >>
This is very easy to explain. The banks, brokerage houses, and governments have trillions invested in paper. These include stocks, fiat currency, derivatives etc. By some measures there are tens of trillions in derivatives alone. These entities stand to lose tens or hundreds of billions, or even trillions if confidence in paper investments wary. That is why they constantly manipulate gold down and try to portray hard asset investors as tinfoil hatted idiots.
Yes, it would be possible for these entities to make billions on gold. But it would come at a cost of trillions in losses in their paper investments. Hence the one sided manipulation downward for gold.
> So he should get some credit for including Demicrat crooks with his Republican jab.
Actually, for those of you trying to figure out a way to make this into a Dem vs Rep thing, Enron let Bush use their corporate jet to campaign with; Bush and Kenneth Lay were well-known close friends in the Texas social scene; and Enron contributed more money to Reps than Dems. All this data is easily verifiable using google.
Thus, using the same "logic" of your little calculation stunt trying to assign "blame" to the Dems actually assigns it to Reps.
The real fault lies with the concept of Business Deregulation, which allowed companies like Enron to arise. For the sake of civility, I won't mention which political party values Business Deregulation as a Cherished Goal.
<< <i>what has been amazing me is the way that gold and silver have been recovering from the manipulated sell-offs
If it was manipulated, why is it only manipulated to the downside? A good trader would make money trading both ways. Why would they give up 50% of the opportunity? >>
This is very easy to explain. The banks, brokerage houses, and governments have trillions invested in paper. These include stocks, fiat currency, derivatives etc. By some measures there are tens of trillions in derivatives alone. These entities stand to lose tens or hundreds of billions, or even trillions if confidence in paper investments wary. That is why they constantly manipulate gold down and try to portray hard asset investors as tinfoil hatted idiots.
Yes, it would be possible for these entities to make billions on gold. But it would come at a cost of trillions in losses in their paper investments. Hence the one sided manipulation downward for gold. >>
Yes, that is the battle...the paper sellers vs. the hard asset types. The paper people stand to lose trillllllionsss and so do the banks that supply the cash for these folk. The hard asset guys have very little to lose. If the fed bails the paper guys out, they will just do it some more. We used to call these people confidence men, now they call them investors...hee hee. When the paper sellers have to make margin calls, they sell their best hard assets first. To poorly paraphrase a previous quote in this thread..."If there is a flood and you were drowning, which would rather have, a certificate for a boat or a boat." that has always nicely sumed it up for me.
I think the upward climb to $800/oz has begun its journey and we might see it this month. What would $1,000/oz do to or for the US economy? Is the US government being naive and not buying gold reserves as is Russia and China?
$1000 gold, even if occured this year would still not register with Joe Sixpack. Gold will have to go much higher, and the stock market much lower, before J-6-P even notices.
If it was manipulated, why is it only manipulated to the downside? A good trader would make money trading both ways. Why would they give up 50% of the opportunity?
The FED has been quoted as saying they do "manage" the gold price to help "stabilize" the markets (ie currency, stocks, etc.). It's no secret that they do this via the ESF that Reagan set up back in 1987. And the ESF works through favored brokerages like Goldman Sachs for example to institute those policies. No doubt a GS makes considerable money knowing which way the FED wants to push gold/US dollar. Those brokerages and all their broker buds profit on both sides of the trade when it comes to gold. They short it on the way down (buying dollars) and then buy gold back after whamming it. And it doesn't hurt to have a large gold miner or two in the back pocket either.
Yes, it would be possible for these entities to make billions on gold. But it would come at a cost of trillions in losses in their paper investments. Hence the one sided manipulation downward for gold.
No doubt there is a Wall Street component. The M&A crowd, bankers, lawyers, business consultants - wouldn't be able to skim there %%%%s off the top for every deal if there were no deals, right? The capitalization of the gold market is a drop in the bucket compared to the bogus paper deals that take place constantly. Hence, the bias is for the prices of these deals to rise, yielding higher payouts for the dealmakers. If gold calls their bluff, their world comes tumbling down.
Now, I know that all this type of activity is what makes the economy go 'round, but dang it - what it really amounts to is the average Joe getting hosed, as usual. It would be poetic justice to see a few multimillion dollar condo developments and their tenants go under just once, without a bailout. Holders and creators of imaginary paper assets deserve to be burned bad. It's not to happen but once. Time will tell whether or not it will be in our lifetimes.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Yes, it would be possible for these entities to make billions on gold. But it would come at a cost of trillions in losses in their paper investments. Hence the one sided manipulation downward for gold.
No doubt there is a Wall Street component. The M&A crowd, bankers, lawyers, business consultants - wouldn't be able to skim there %%%%s off the top for every deal if there were no deals, right? The capitalization of the gold market is a drop in the bucket compared to the bogus paper deals that take place constantly. Hence, the bias is for the prices of these deals to rise, yielding higher payouts for the dealmakers. If gold calls their bluff, their world comes tumbling down.
Now, I know that all this type of activity is what makes the economy go 'round, but dang it - what it really amounts to is the average Joe getting hosed, as usual. It would be poetic justice to see a few multimillion dollar condo developments and their tenants go under just once, without a bailout. Holders and creators of imaginary paper assets deserve to be burned bad. It's not to happen but once. Time will tell whether or not it will be in our lifetimes. >>
<< <i>Question.......Is there an advantage to "manipulating" gold to the upside? >>
Sure.... like the Hunts did with silver. But that draws a lot of attention. By shorting the price of gold/silver the game has been played much longer and ignored by the regulators.
<< <i>Question.......Is there an advantage to "manipulating" gold to the upside? >>
Sure.... like the Hunts did with silver. But that draws a lot of attention. By shorting the price of gold/silver the game has been played much longer and ignored by the regulators. >>
As more and more money leaves the US economy, and as we get more addicted to low interest rates (courtesy of the Asian underwriters of the loans to the largest debtor nation-US) .. the dollar will go up. Precious metals will continue to be the only thing of value that cant be burned or consumed.
Taxpayers have a right to be angry -- because their government continues to waste money promoting free markets around the world that are not really free. Instead we have neo-capitalist (economic) communist (political) dictatorships that are using the consumer culture of the USA to their advantage, and the congress that doesnt have the backbone to balance the budget.
Thomas Jefferson was right...
"A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor and bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government."
“When you don't know what you're talking about, it's hard to know when you're finished.” - Tommy Smothers
Tincup, Doogy, et al, ....The purpose of my question was to get you to think and while I respect your opinions, it is my belief that they are corrupted by conspiracy theories and that you dont have a complete grasp of markets.
Think about it.....What you are saying is that prices--for anything-- are never raised so that one can sell.
Trading dynamics can be and frequently are very complicated. I can understand why most do not understand the concepts or forward selling, short selling, naked short selling, hedging, calls, puts, ect.
Comments
yet IMHO gold will not hit the highs predicted, even if oil tops $101 a barrel which would equal the high in terms of VALUE compared to 1981. At that time we were spending 6% of our DI on gas now at $3 it is 4%...we'd have to hit $6 a gallon to equal our DI % of 1981. (and that was with inflation running ummmm...kinda high, remember?)
GOLD is NOT what it once was the market (WORLD) is too diverse, world curriencies are mow traded in 100's of billions of dollars per day. Gold is good but Gold is not what it once meant. Sure I wish I had bought some earlier, but other commodities will show steady growth greater than gold will. greins especially corn is the "new" gold.
if you are getting in (gold now) be quick to turn. if you had bought a few weeks ago.....take it and run awhile.
when Joe Lunchbox descides it's time to buy gold SELL!
Well gentleman it has only taken the main business media 5 years to figure this out, but I think they have finally figured out the Gov./Fed is lying!
There's No Inflation (If You Ignore Facts)
By Daniel Gross
Newsweek
Oct. 8, 2007 issue
Imagine that a cardiologist told you that aside from the irregular heartbeat, the stratospheric cholesterol count and a little blockage in your aorta, your core heart functions are just fine.
That's precisely what the government's cardiologist—Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve—has just done. The central bank is supposed to make sure the economy grows fast enough to create jobs and make everybody richer, but not so fast that it produces inflation, which makes everybody poorer.
"core inflation"? That's Fedspeak for: inflation is under control, excluding the prices of food and energy, which can be volatile from month to month. Factor them in, and inflation is about as moderate as Newt Gingrich.
The CPI—including food and energy—has risen 12.6 percent since July 2003.
Signs of inflation are evident throughout the economy. When investors fear a rising inflationary tide, they latch onto the driftwood of gold.
The day Bernanke cut rates, the price of the precious metal soared to heights not seen since 1980, when inflation ran at nearly 12 percent! I read about this in The Wall Street Journal (whose newsstand price rose 50 percent in July), which I picked up in the lobby of a New York hotel (where the average nightly rate soared 12.5 percent in the first seven months of 2007, while sipping on a Starbucks Frappuccino (whose price has risen twice since last October).
The Wall Street Journal noted that iron-ore producers are about to ask for a 50 percent price increase for 2008.
BYE BYE
Ah, the technological age!
CNN MONEY
By Elaine Pofeldt, FSB Magazine
September 29 2007: 3:32 PM EDT
Applied Cognetics, a software development and online marketing firm based in Brooklyn, N.Y., has about $1 million in deposits in NetBank, an online bank with $2.5 billion in assets that regulators closed Friday because of an unsustainable level of mortgage defaults.
Although the FDIC insures bank deposits of up to $100,000, Applied Cognetics president Chris Colthrust and his four business partners aren't sure what will happen to the remainder of their account.
"Every penny I saved for the last 10 years was in this," said Colthrust, 39. "Basically all of our operating funds and accounts were in that bank. Everything we've worked for the last 2 years [could be] up in smoke."
NetBank customers with accounts exceeding the FDIC limit will become creditors in NetBank's receivership, the FDIC said Friday.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Just in case you have not seen this. Internet finance is safe? How could they lose $900,000,000? That is real easy when over the counter derivatives are properly valued because in a meltdown. If that is all they lost, they got off easy.
BYE BYE BILLIONS!
Gee how long can these guys keep saying its sub-prime?
Before long all these sub prime losses will exceed the number of houses sold under these mortgages. Lets call it what it is CREDIT DERIVITATES. These guys need to get busy writing this stuff down, or we are never going to get to Mr. Sinclair’s 20 trillion.
UBS becomes biggest victim of credit turmoil
By Peter Thal Larsen in London and David Wighton in New York
Published: September 30 2007 23:59 | Last updated: October 1 2007 08:08
UBS announced the departure of its investment bank head as it warned that it has written off billions of dollars on fixed-income assets, making the Swiss banking group the biggest casualty so far of the turmoil in the global financial markets.
The bank said it had written down its fixed-income portfolio by SFr4bn ($3.4bn), mainly because of losses on US subprime mortgage-related securities, triggering a third-quarter loss of SFr600m-SFr800m.
The losses far exceed those reported so far by other investment banks. UBS said Huw Jenkins, who runs the investment banking business.
There has been some news from the bug site (kitco gold forum) that there are a bunch of gold bars at the BOE that are defective. The responses seem to indicate that this may be a scare rumor to tweek the bug markets, or it may be true that the US gave them some bad gold, or it may be true that they were somehow switched, or it may be true that they just have some extra alloy in them so they cracked but the point of the discussion is that while the gold beneath Threadneedle Street has an assay stamp on it, it has no assay certificates so we have a bigggg mystery and a lot of gold.
(can't link directly or I would)
These are certainly interesting times, it reminds me of the refrain from a country song about a beer joint that's playing right now..."beer, bait, and ammo, if you ask me they've got it all." Maybe, that is all we really need.
<< <i>BYE BYE BILLIONS!
Gee how long can these guys keep saying its sub-prime?
Before long all these sub prime losses will exceed the number of houses sold under these mortgages. Lets call it what it is CREDIT DERIVITATES. These guys need to get busy writing this stuff down, or we are never going to get to Mr. Sinclair’s 20 trillion.
UBS becomes biggest victim of credit turmoil
By Peter Thal Larsen in London and David Wighton in New York
Published: September 30 2007 23:59 | Last updated: October 1 2007 08:08
UBS announced the departure of its investment bank head as it warned that it has written off billions of dollars on fixed-income assets, making the Swiss banking group the biggest casualty so far of the turmoil in the global financial markets.It appears that UBS is the only bank willing to admit to the true extent of their losses, unashamedly reorting a loss for the quarter and firing the person responsible.....The US banks are going to try and leak the bad news out over the next few quarters while they show a profit , albeit a smaller profit for these quarters .
May be time to invest in UBS
The bank said it had written down its fixed-income portfolio by SFr4bn ($3.4bn), mainly because of losses on US subprime mortgage-related securities, triggering a third-quarter loss of SFr600m-SFr800m.
The losses far exceed those reported so far by other investment banks. UBS said Huw Jenkins, who runs the investment banking business. >>
somehow got my comment posted in the middle of your comment
Would somebody please tell these guys we do not want them to buy our debt anymore.
How are we ever going to get off of the credit drug if they keep buying our debt?
Anyway once the dem’s are in control we can have trade sanctions and these foreigners can just keep all those lead coated toys, cheap shirt etc.
And who said we couldn’t go back to riding horses? We still have plenty of land to raise horses!
Remember when men were men, and the ladies stayed home and took care of the home and kids, no working ladies, no hand outs, just good old American self reliance, no debt, no credit cards, and beholding to know one, is everyone ready?
Dollar's double blow from Vietnam and Qatar
Telegraph Media Group Limited 2007.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:12am BST 04/10/2007
Vietnam is planning to cut its purchases of US Treasuries and other dollar bonds, raising fears that Asian central banks with control over two thirds of the world's foreign reserves may soon join the flight from US assets.
Vietnam, which has mid-sized reserves of $40bn, is seen as weather vane for the bigger Asian powers.
Together they hold $3,575bn of foreign reserves, over 65pc of the world's total. China leads with $1,340bn, but South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and even Thailand all built up massive holdings.
The concern is that once one or two members of the region jump ship, it could set off a broader scramble. None of them want to be the last one left holding a devalued asset. Vietnam's central bank said this week that it would move "gradually" to a floating currency.
Separately, the gas-rich Gulf state of Qatar announced that it had cut the dollar holdings of its $50bn sovereign wealth fund from 99pc to 40pc, switching into investments in China, Japan, and emerging Asia.
The drastic shift by the Qatar Investment Authority is a warning that petro-dollar powers with some $3,500bn under management may pull the plug on the heavily indebted US economy -- which needs to suck in the majority of the world's savings just to stay afloat.
Most of my generation grew up with no air conditioning, one bathroom and one car. We were middle class. Now everyone has their own cell phone, computer, television, bedroom (how many kids today share a bedroom, it was quite common in my youth) and car if they are old enough to drive.
Many of the commentors here are gloom and doom, the sky is falling. Well, if you only debt is your house with a fixed rate mortgage, then the slide of the dollar has little effect on you. Our gas prices are already well below Europe due to their taxation in order to repress demand. We have gone back to the gigantic SUV in place of the big cars from the 70s, but the effect is the same.
If we quit spending obscene amounts of money occupying (yes, we have already won the war) a foreign country our balance sheet might look a lot better. Those major transfer payments kill the dollar in the long run and we have been financing this excursion longer than WWII.
Yes, your new Benz or Bimmer will be much more expensive next year. Just MHO.
And they can thank the fact they will get at least $100,000 back to that commie FDR.
Old quote: "A conservative is a Liberal who got mugged" (lost $100)
New, more cogent, quote: "A liberal is a conservative who got mugged by Big Business" (lost life savings: Enron, Tyco, Netbank, etc)
might just have to be more careful how they spend our money.
People will once again have to learn the bitter truth that spending
must be accompanied by taxes adequate to balance the National budget.
We are all living in a dream world of economic prestidigitation ,that in the
long run is not sustainable. Republicans spend , borrow and print,
while Democrats spend and tax. What will it take to return to economic reality,
another major depression or just a whiff of hyper inflation?
Camelot
<< <i>This thread seems to have killed itself. Maybe we should archive the first year or so and reference it as a folder in this thread or something. I think the number of entries in this thread is just too long for the mechanics of our server to update and keep this thread functioning. Just my thoughts...any others, or is it just me having this situation? I wrote a short IM to SM but don't know if that was the proper way to administer this thread. >>
http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=26&threadid=344922&STARTPAGE=225
This will appear in your browser in 18 posts if you use the default settings. You can just change the
last number to a six to get the last posts to appear. Sometimes the last post won't get a new page
to start. ...Or you can "ttt" it for post count.
This has been a problem for years and they've looked at it before. The longer a thread gets the more
likely the problem is to arise.
<< <i>If the world would stop buying our debt, our Government
might just have to be more careful how they spend our money.
People will once again have to learn the bitter truth that spending
must be accompanied by taxes adequate to balance the National budget.
We are all living in a dream world of economic prestidigitation ,that in the
long run is not sustainable. Republicans spend , borrow and print,
while Democrats spend and tax. What will it take to return to economic reality,
another major depression or just a whiff of hyper inflation? >>
I'm a young man, and was born when Vietnam was being fought over (1972), so I can't speak from experience of it, much less World War II. However, i'm a student of history both in books/documentaries as well as listening to my grandfathers that fought WWII. Back then, the nation knew it was at war, and acted like it. Rationing was the order of the day so as not to burden the economy with needless money printing that is happening today. I think the Bush administration wanted to run it's little tidy war with as few troops as possible and zero demands on the average citizen in the way of sacrificing. As a Marine Corps veteran, I see many of my friends sacrificing plenty over there, while the average American still lives pretty much the life of Riley. Sure, the economy will be hurting much more than it is very soon; you can't fight a very expensive war (much of it could have been avoided by not giving no-bid contracts to the likes of Halliburton, and well as the mercenary groups) without either raising taxes considerably or printing a ton of fiat money and getting more in debt. I have to laugh every time Bush and the Repubs talk about tax cuts, and keeping taxes low; meanwhile he turns around with his hand out to Congress for more and more money for this war. I'd much rather sacrifice with material possessions, and pay higher taxes, to avoid having HUGE amounts of war debt being saddled to my daughters.
I also think it is borderline comical that Qatar and others that these last three administrations have wooed, are finally realizing that they should jump ship on our dollar. We got in bed with regimes over there that are pitiful on human rights, hold too much power with petro-chemicals, and now we question how such people would not stand by our sinking dollar ship? i'm sure you'll see Paulsen and Bernake on their knees begging the shieks pretty soon to stop dumping our debt.
<< <i>New, more cogent, quote: "A liberal is a conservative who got mugged by Big Business" (lost life savings: Enron, Tyco, Netbank, etc) >>
-- oops, you conveniently left Worldcom off your list. Oh wait, that involved the former head of the DNC.
<< <i>
<< <i>. I'd much rather sacrifice with material possessions, and pay higher taxes, to avoid having HUGE amounts of war debt being saddled to my daughters.
. >>
And I would prefer freedom to your desires for whatever brands of socialism you seem to want.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>. I'd much rather sacrifice with material possessions, and pay higher taxes, to avoid having HUGE amounts of war debt being saddled to my daughters.
. >>
And I would prefer freedom to your desires for whatever brands of socialism you seem to want. >>
Amen!!
There is a lot of activity in the gold market right now, there is a war going on. To get a better feel for the fight look at the kitco site under forums, particularly the gold discussion group on "gold's action". DYODD here, there is a lot of activity and a number of forces that can influence what happens. These folk are traders and are short term players, so don't get into some kind of knee jerk reaction to what they say and they talk in acronyms a lot so enjoy it for what it's worth.
My take...the dollar is dropping against world currencies and the EU is beating on the Chinese to raise the value of their currency against other world currencies because the balance of trade with the Chinese is getting bad for the EU too and their euro is getting pounded. The USD folk tried to get the Chinese to up their currency value against other world currencies and the Chinese told us to "Pound sand". It appears that the Chinese will have to attone for their sins if the form of doing something with their currency because they are creating great trade imbalances in exchange for cheap products. In this flight to protect currencies, folk are buying gold. The interesting part of this is that gold is priced in USD, not yuans or euros or yen. Euro/Yuan situation
There are other issues with gold, namely the paper trade where someone issues a certificate for PM and not the PM. The problem is these certificates were purchased at a much lower price than the current price of gold (POG). Mines that forward sold known reserves a few years ago give paper in lieu of PM and now that is coming to a head because they have issued a lot of paper for gold (in the ground) that the mines do not have in hand so there's a problem that is even more acute because gold is rising so high...people want their PM or their money, not some stinkin' certificate. The other problem is this paper was sold when gold was in the 400's and now it's nearing 800 so there is a problem here.
Another issue is the currency carry trade. This is where you borrow some money in say Japan at 1% and then buy US treasuries or loans at 5% and carry the 4% as profit...sneaky 'eh? The problem is that when the currencies and lending rates get "adjusted", the people that have these carry trade situations become a little more vulnerable and people that do these kinds of deals don't like to be vulnerable...it's about the money so people like stores of value, like gold to carry them over turbulent waters. The fed rate cut situation is just a minor diversion but it does affect currencies and the carry trade so there could be some gold movement come out of this.
And here we are, in the midst of a great battle. We can't watch the actual war other than read the news articles but we can see the score...POG.
So, will it go up...seems like it should. How high will it go...hard to say. If you don't have PM, and you just have to get in the water, buy some dated US gold coins. Once you see the lines out the door of the coin shop...it's way too late. I have noticed that Kitco used to get $25 over spot for an oz and now they are getting $40 (before shipping) so they are seeing a little pressure too. For those with PM...life is good.
JMHO
Edited to add euro/yuan link
I knew it would happen.
extend for several decades, it is necessary for
all that Nation's Citizens to share in the burden.
Rationing, war tax, blood drives, scrap drives, war bonds.
In addition, the government should be assuming a more prudent
attitude, as it pertains to spending in general. It is not possible for
the general population to go on as if everything is normal. Things are not
normal and the impending shortage in natural resources, lack of financial reserves
and the lowly status of the dollar, have not seem to have impinged on the National
psychi.
Camelot
<< <i>When a Nation is involved in a War that will
extend for several decades, it is necessary for
all that Nation's Citizens to share in the burden.
Rationing, war tax, blood drives, scrap drives, war bonds.
In addition, the government should be assuming a more prudent
attitude, as it pertains to spending in general. It is not possible for
the general population to go on as if everything is normal. Things are not
normal and the impending shortage in natural resources, lack of financial reserves
and the lowly status of the dollar, have not seem to have impinged on the National
psychi. >>
AMEN TO THAT!
i say that sort of thing, and i'm labeled as a 'Socialist'; these types of comments are stuck on those of us that are young, and usually by old, rich guys that don't want their gravy train to leave the station. after all, what do they care if my kids will be saddled with debt and be subservant to the Chinese, they'll be dead anyway?! I find it ironic that those of us with common sense in the vein of spending (or lack of) and debt are labeled as kooks by those that are supposed to be 'Conservatives'. These past few years, the 'Conservatives' can't seem to conserve anything, whether it is the environment, tax revenue, or constitutional rights.
spending restraint, debt control, concern over foreign entanglements, strong dollar,
strong military , strong industrial base and moderation in all things. Where
oh where ,have we all gone wrong.
Camelot
Hope everyone has had fun trading the last few weeks. Wow!! What incredible asset inflation we have enjoyed--10% increase in gold and equities. Amazing.
And no one will lose a penny at Netbank. Your taxes will be put towards good work.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The last one a week or two ago dropped all the metals a good chunk. But the loss was just a brief blip and they were climbing out of the dip almost immediately; the manipuilators may have lost their hold on the metals finally
The Magic 8-Ball says "No."
If it was manipulated, why is it only manipulated to the downside? A good trader would make money trading both ways. Why would they give up 50% of the opportunity?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What is your point? I was only talking about Big Business in general not the Dem-Rep thing.
Are you implying that the Worldcom example means that Dems are crooks?
Using that logic, all the Reps are 5-10-20x the crooks that Dems are.
Logic. Try it some time.
> oops, you conveniently left Worldcom off your list. Oh wait, that involved the former head of the DNC
To be fair, he has Enron on his list. Their first phone call for a bailout went to the Demicrats, even though Bush was in the White House. So he should get some credit for including Demicrat crooks with his Republican jab.
<< <i>what has been amazing me is the way that gold and silver have been recovering from the manipulated sell-offs
If it was manipulated, why is it only manipulated to the downside? A good trader would make money trading both ways. Why would they give up 50% of the opportunity? >>
This is very easy to explain. The banks, brokerage houses, and governments have trillions invested in paper. These include stocks, fiat currency, derivatives etc. By some measures there are tens of trillions in derivatives alone. These entities stand to lose tens or hundreds of billions, or even trillions if confidence in paper investments wary. That is why they constantly manipulate gold down and try to portray hard asset investors as tinfoil hatted idiots.
Yes, it would be possible for these entities to make billions on gold. But it would come at a cost of trillions in losses in their paper investments. Hence the one sided manipulation downward for gold.
Actually, for those of you trying to figure out a way to make this into a Dem vs Rep thing, Enron let Bush use their corporate jet to campaign with; Bush and Kenneth Lay were well-known close friends in the Texas social scene; and Enron contributed more money to Reps than Dems. All this data is easily verifiable using google.
Thus, using the same "logic" of your little calculation stunt trying to assign "blame" to the Dems actually assigns it to Reps.
The real fault lies with the concept of Business Deregulation, which allowed companies like Enron to arise. For the sake of civility, I won't mention which political party values Business Deregulation as a Cherished Goal.
<< <i>
<< <i>what has been amazing me is the way that gold and silver have been recovering from the manipulated sell-offs
If it was manipulated, why is it only manipulated to the downside? A good trader would make money trading both ways. Why would they give up 50% of the opportunity? >>
This is very easy to explain. The banks, brokerage houses, and governments have trillions invested in paper. These include stocks, fiat currency, derivatives etc. By some measures there are tens of trillions in derivatives alone. These entities stand to lose tens or hundreds of billions, or even trillions if confidence in paper investments wary. That is why they constantly manipulate gold down and try to portray hard asset investors as tinfoil hatted idiots.
Yes, it would be possible for these entities to make billions on gold. But it would come at a cost of trillions in losses in their paper investments. Hence the one sided manipulation downward for gold. >>
Ok. Keep believing that.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If it was manipulated, why is it only manipulated to the downside? A good trader would make money trading both ways. Why would they give up 50% of the opportunity?
The FED has been quoted as saying they do "manage" the gold price to help "stabilize" the markets (ie currency, stocks, etc.).
It's no secret that they do this via the ESF that Reagan set up back in 1987. And the ESF works through favored brokerages like Goldman Sachs for example to institute those policies. No doubt a GS makes considerable money knowing which way the FED wants to push gold/US dollar. Those brokerages and all their broker buds profit on both sides of the trade when it comes to gold. They short it on the way down (buying dollars) and then buy gold back after whamming it. And it doesn't hurt to have a large gold miner or two in the back pocket either.
roadrunner
No doubt there is a Wall Street component. The M&A crowd, bankers, lawyers, business consultants - wouldn't be able to skim there %%%%s off the top for every deal if there were no deals, right? The capitalization of the gold market is a drop in the bucket compared to the bogus paper deals that take place constantly. Hence, the bias is for the prices of these deals to rise, yielding higher payouts for the dealmakers. If gold calls their bluff, their world comes tumbling down.
Now, I know that all this type of activity is what makes the economy go 'round, but dang it - what it really amounts to is the average Joe getting hosed, as usual. It would be poetic justice to see a few multimillion dollar condo developments and their tenants go under just once, without a bailout. Holders and creators of imaginary paper assets deserve to be burned bad. It's not to happen but once. Time will tell whether or not it will be in our lifetimes.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Yes, it would be possible for these entities to make billions on gold. But it would come at a cost of trillions in losses in their paper investments. Hence the one sided manipulation downward for gold.
No doubt there is a Wall Street component. The M&A crowd, bankers, lawyers, business consultants - wouldn't be able to skim there %%%%s off the top for every deal if there were no deals, right? The capitalization of the gold market is a drop in the bucket compared to the bogus paper deals that take place constantly. Hence, the bias is for the prices of these deals to rise, yielding higher payouts for the dealmakers. If gold calls their bluff, their world comes tumbling down.
Now, I know that all this type of activity is what makes the economy go 'round, but dang it - what it really amounts to is the average Joe getting hosed, as usual. It would be poetic justice to see a few multimillion dollar condo developments and their tenants go under just once, without a bailout. Holders and creators of imaginary paper assets deserve to be burned bad. It's not to happen but once. Time will tell whether or not it will be in our lifetimes. >>
hey, we finally agree for once!
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Question.......Is there an advantage to "manipulating" gold to the upside? >>
Sure.... like the Hunts did with silver. But that draws a lot of attention. By shorting the price of gold/silver the game has been played much longer and ignored by the regulators.
<< <i>
<< <i>Question.......Is there an advantage to "manipulating" gold to the upside? >>
Sure.... like the Hunts did with silver. But that draws a lot of attention. By shorting the price of gold/silver the game has been played much longer and ignored by the regulators. >>
yup, draws attention like a bull in a china shop.
Taxpayers have a right to be angry -- because their government continues to waste money promoting free markets around the world that are not really free. Instead we have neo-capitalist (economic) communist (political) dictatorships that are using the consumer culture of the USA to their advantage, and the congress that doesnt have the backbone to balance the budget.
Thomas Jefferson was right...
"A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor and bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government."
Think about it.....What you are saying is that prices--for anything-- are never raised so that one can sell.
Trading dynamics can be and frequently are very complicated. I can understand why most do not understand the concepts or forward selling, short selling, naked short selling, hedging, calls, puts, ect.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear