How long can the Chinese go without our buying their products that are inteded to kill us!!!!!You think all that lead is by accident!!!! Antifreeze in your toothpaste!!!! Come on!!!!!
Let them come and buy the farms and produce what the American Government has not allowed the family farmer to do for years...Yeah they can produce food under our SAFE guidelines, ya think!!! I gotta farm they can lease for 3000/acre per year...crops can be grown 9 months out of the year!!!! What a deal!!!!
NO MORE ATM’S ON HOUSES AND NOW NO MORE CREDIT CARDS. YOU THINK CONSUMER SPENDING MIGHT SLOW DOWN?
From The Times September 24, 2007
Banks cut card limits and reject borrowers in consumer credit crackdown!
High street banks are slashing credit card limits and turning away droves of borrowers in a consumer credit crackdown. Banks hope that by tightening up lending standards they will cut the cost of servicing problem borrowers.
Half a million Barclaycard customers have seen their credit limits reduced in a continuing review by Barclays of its customers’ spending behaviour.
The bank is rejecting half of all applications for cards and is monitoring card-users closely for signs of trouble.
About a month ago I posted a note from Jim Sinclair that said that, “Central Bank Gold” never went into the open gold market. Well according to John Browne that is not exactly correct. In fact much of the Central bank gold may already be dispersed around the world with no way to retrieve it. The plot is really thickening!
John Browne, Friday, Sept. 2007
Yesterday, Barron's Online posted a most interesting item entitled, "A Secret Time Bomb Made of Gold."
We had written about this subject, some nine months ago, but emphasizing a slightly different point. Our title was, "The Great Government "Gold Bluff" starting to Unravel."
The recent Barron's article refers to, "A little-known fountain of free money called the "gold carry trade" is in danger of drying up. And if it does, then markets from gold to bonds and even stocks can be in for a wild ride."
The Barron's article explains that the gold carry trade is similar to the yen carry trade and goes on to say that, "Central banks are generally sitting on huge supplies of gold that earn them no interest and cost them money just to store securely. To earn them a little revenue on these static assets, they loan their gold to banks called bullion banks, at a ridiculously low interest rate on the order of 1 percent."
As we understand it, these so-called "bullion banks" include major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs (manager of the "Global Alpha" fund, engaged in the yen-Australian dollar carry trade and down by 44 percent from its peak in March 2006) and Morgan Stanley.
As Barron's explains, "The banks turn around and sell the gold in the market, typically in the London bullion market, and invest the proceeds in a higher paying asset, such as long-term Treasury bonds. If bonds pay 4.6% then the banks earn an easy 3.6%.
The problem, states Barron's, is that” if the gold price starts to rise, profits can be wiped out or turned to losses. And in today's markets, a falling dollar not only boosts gold prices, it also makes Treasury bonds less attractive to foreign investors. That reduces demand and weakens prices to create a potential double-edged sword for carry traders."
However, there is another most important issue involved that is not covered in the Barron's article — the proper accounting for the gold in the vaults of central banks.
This is extremely important as it points directly at the vital issue of "monetary confidence" that we are likely to be in need of as we face the immediate economic and financial future.
Gold is not just a hedge against inflation. It is also a hedge against a collapse of confidence in the increasingly delicate issue that is "monetary confidence."
The next vital question would be, "How much of the gold in the vaults of central banks actually still belongs to those central banks?"
Much of the gold lent to the bullion banks, who sell it into the market, belongs to third parties. The gold is removed from the vaults of the central banks and replaced by the IOU's of the bullion banks.
Many of these same bullion banks have unknown amounts of "toxic sub-prime waste" sitting on their books at unknown prices. The lax accounting rules of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have allowed the central banks to include, under the board accounting category of "Reserves" even the paper IOUs representing the gold that they have leased to the bullion banks and has been "sold' to third parties.
Our researches show the total amount of gold "leased" out by the central banks, in return for the IOU's of the bullion banks, is estimated to be some 17,000 tonnes of gold.
To put that figure into perspective, we understand that the central banks together hold some 32,000 tonnes of gold held in their vaults. But it includes the 17,000 tonnes worth of paper IOU's.
It's my understanding that someone has to ultimately go out into the market and bring the gold back to the CB's. Someone goes bust in that deal.
The 1990's gold carry game basically allowed the gold miners to become hedgers and betters. They ramped back on putting money into mining infrastructure so that they could make money on interest rate deals. This will come back to haunt many of them in the future. While Barrick made supposedly $2 BILLION on interest rate deals in the 1990's and early 2000's, they now stand to lose BILLIONS more on their 9 MILL oz of hedged gold production.
The "double" counting of gold reserves is indeed an interesting anomaly.
It does not sound like any different then anything else that could be shorted, an openning transaction will be follow by a closing transaction sometime in the future.
Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent. San Diego, CA
When the congress is more in tune with working folks
I would hope that they would enact the following:
1.Usury laws to prevent excessive Credit card interest rates
2.service charges.
3.Laws to guarantee up front, full disclosure on mortgage contracts
4. Review recent changes in bankruptcy laws ,which penalize decent hard working folks.
5. Place more Federal investment into renewable, non polluting energy sources.
6. Restore windfall profit laws
7. Review NAFTA and all such agreements ,that cause the offshore placement of jobs and loss of manufacturing within the USA.
8. Clearly mark all foods, manufactured goods , assembly or raw materials which are produced assembled or manufactured outside of USA, as to the Nation of origin.
9. Provide tax incentives companies, Manufacturing and production of goods within the USA by American Labor.
10. Provide tax incentives for American Auto companies to exceed the Miles per gallon as compared with like products foreign made.Better Miles, more incentives.
11. Significantly enlarge the military,even if it requires a temporary special tax.
12. Increase the money alloted to veteran medical treatment and benefits.
It is about time we started looking after American Companies and American Labor.
<< <i>When the congress is more in tune with working folks
I would hope that they would enact the following:
1.Usury laws to prevent excessive Credit card interest rates
2.service charges.
3.Laws to guarantee up front, full disclosure on mortgage contracts
4. Review recent changes in bankruptcy laws ,which penalize decent hard working folks.
5. Place more Federal investment into renewable, non polluting energy sources.
6. Restore windfall profit laws
7. Review NAFTA and all such agreements ,that cause the offshore placement of jobs and loss of manufacturing within the USA.
8. Clearly mark all foods, manufactured goods , assembly or raw materials which are produced assembled or manufactured outside of USA, as to the Nation of origin.
9. Provide tax incentives companies, Manufacturing and production of goods within the USA by American Labor.
10. Provide tax incentives for American Auto companies to exceed the Miles per gallon as compared with like products foreign made.Better Miles, more incentives.
11. Significantly enlarge the military,even if it requires a temporary special tax.
12. Increase the money alloted to veteran medical treatment and benefits.
It is about time we started looking after American Companies and American Labor. >>
While I share your sentiments and would love to see this happen, my gut reaction is that we can expect this about the same time as pigs sprout wings and take flight.
I would add in an audit of the Federal Reserve while we're at it. Some say that JFK had intended to do just that and that might explain a lot right there.
Too much wisdom for any Congress critter to understand, much less enact.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
The FED is a private company running a business on "contract." Why would an audit be warranted? Instead, why not end the contract and stop paying user fees to use our own money.
<< <i>The FED is a private company running a business on "contract." Why would an audit be warranted? Instead, why not end the contract and stop paying user fees to use our own money.
roadrunner >>
I agree we should end the contract, but an audit might provide the ammunition needed to justify the action.
If Congress was faced with the fraud and the audit were to become public information, they would have little choice.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Well, maybe with the unknown values of derivatives and the unknown amount of PM that the different CB's actually own, and the unknown surplus of paper v.s. actual PM that is out there, how much money is actually in the Social Security Administration's account, maybe it would be a good idea to start muttering the one word that will shake the world to it's boots...AUDIT!!!
Now, that would be an interesting platform for one of the major political parties to put their saddle on and the chances of that happening are less than 0. It is quizical that there are many entities that keep track of how much money I earn, have in the bank, have in stock, have due the I rs, but how much they have is a big doo dah...kinda makes me go hummmmmm until I realize that there is nothing that I or anybody else can do about it. Sit back, enjoy the ride, it's all good.
We tend to bash the Federal Reserve for the things they have done wrong.
But one alternative is give power back to Congress for issuing money???
Congress and the President has been so irresponsible since 1963 in maintaining a balanced budget inclusive of social security and medicare that they have forced the Federal Reserve to do all of Congress's dirty work to keep things on an even keel.
Congress would have done a better job? No way.
Gold standards is not without its risk. Inflation is not banished with the gold standard as you saw hyperinflation on the West Coast after the discovery of gold in 1849. It does not happen often but it does happen.
A true fractional reserve as it was meant to be established is still the best way to go. But when I mean fractional reserve, I mean a reserve of 40-50% of all paper currency and credit obligations must be backed by gold and another 10% by silver.
We have had some great Federal reserve Chairmans (Volker et al) who saw that we had to bring our economy to our knees to keep inflation halfway in check back in the late 1970's and early 1980's. Congress would never had the guts to do that.
A couple of years ago I made a post here for us to watch out for the Arabs and the Chinese to move into Gold in a big way. My assumption was that we might not know what they were buying in their open market, but I thought that they would start making plays to buy whole mining gold companies, and cut out the middlemen.
Over the last two years I just could not understand why I did not wake up one morning and read in Bloomberg that the Chinese were buying so and so gold mining company.
I think this week the reason is becoming pretty clear. Besides RR’s post on Barrick this past week, here is another article one from Jim Sinclair this morning, on Newmont, and the Juniors. It appears that many many of these gold mining companies are upside down due to their short sightedness, and their pre-selling their reserves at very low prices via derivatives.
In simple terms they are full of toxic waste paper!
It looks like one is only safe with ones gold investments if one buys the metal, and takes possession?
Jim Sinclair, Sept. 27/07 When you close out over the counter short of gold derivatives and lose 2.0 billion dollars (or 2,000 million), you have to charge that loss somewhere.
According to the Statement of Auditing Standards 133 - which has since been replaced by 138 - the loss on the close of these OTC derivatives MUST be charged as an expense to the project for which the OTC derivative was taken. The end result is an increase in unit production costs for each encumbered project as the loss on the derivative is a specific COST to that project.
Newmont is fulfilling its obligations under regulation 10b-5. Any junior that had a percentage deal on a property that Newmont was developing for them has a 10b-5 requirement to inform their shareholders that costs are rising on the project. (Many of these will be deep under water due to these costs but their shareholders will not be told this).
As such, many juniors - especially those that are too thick headed and opinionated to know they have a problem - or those that know but will simply not divulge the issue to anyone - are going to be in total violation of 10 b-5. This could open the door to a host of class action litigations.
Derivatives are set to destroy and in many cases eliminate “exposed” percentage juniors from the scene while allowing Barrick to be the major consolidator in the gold industry.
1. Since Barrick intends to deliver against OTC forward sales, it will be delivering gold at $325 even if gold is trading at $750 or better. Caveat for protection: You know how I feel about gold.
2. Because Barrick declares its intention to deliver, the company avoids the major impact of having to mark to market losses on the forward sales. This is Canadian GAAP (General Accepted Accounting Practices).
Inflation is not banished with the gold standard as you saw hyperinflation on the West Coast after the discovery of gold in 1849. It does not happen often but it does happen.
Today's inflation is created by the FED. Whether it shows up immediately here or overseas are the only variables. It does go somewhere. Here's a nice graph of M3 increase. Note the rapid vertical ascent since 1996 when Greenspan lit the afterburners. They have not been turned off since even though M1 and M2 have dropped separately....M3 has more than made up the difference. One can have runs on banks and hyperinflation from many causes. If anything, the FED has increased the likelihood of drastic market cycles from all their meddling. Now in whose pockets did the 95-97% loss in the US Dollar go to? That's a factor of 20 in the shifting of wealth. Someone once had it and now someone else has it.
Sinclair has stated that Barrick is big enough to be underwater on its own hedge position and still consolidate the industry by absorbing juniors who flunk out on derivatives 101. I'm not sure how that all happens but if anyone knows the biz, he does. Barrick has often been said to be linked directly to the FED via Goldman Sachs or other connected brokerages/banks. It would not surprise me.
At one point in time Sinclair was a short list candidate for Treasury Secretary. That would have been a good choice for a president looking to restore some honesty to the job.
I was reading this article by Gary North as he made a statement that M3 (removed by the FED in early 2006) was a totally useless barometer for price inflation. His proof is that M1 has more accurately predicted price inflation (ie most closely mirrors CPI) than any other monetary stat from 1971 to date. Of course his end result is correct, but is that because M1 is the key stat that the FED watches? According to North we are in a deflationary mode right now.
Skim the first half and the meat is in the 2nd half of the article.
My thought was that over the past 35 years we have essentially exported much of our potential price inflation by utilizing cheap overseas labor to supply us with inexpensive goods. What would happen if that inexpensive labor became pricier as Asia industrializes? Does our exported price inflation come back home rather quickly? Something tells me North is missing something in his analysis, such as debt=money, and that the CPI methodology has indeed changed since 1983 as to be inaccurate for comparisons today. Lloyd would positively love North's article.
Here is some more news on Money Market funds, and just who has been buying derivatives. This time from Bloomberg!
Unsafe Havens By David Evans Bloomberg Markets September 28, 2007
Money market funds were invented 37 years ago to offer investors better returns than bank savings accounts while providing a high degree of safety. Most of the $2.5 trillion sitting in these funds is invested in such assets as U.S. Treasury bills, certificates of deposit and short-term commercial debt.
Unlike bank accounts, money market funds aren't insured by the federal government. They almost never fail.
Unbeknownst to most investors, some of the largest money market funds today are putting part of their cash into one of the riskiest debt investments in the world: collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime mortgage loans.
CDOs are packages of bonds and loans, and almost half of all CDOs sold in the U.S. in 2006 contained subprime debt, according to a March report by Moody's Investors Service.
U.S. money market funds run by Bank of America Corp., Credit Suisse Group, Fidelity Investments and Morgan Stanley held more than $6 billion of CDOs with subprime debt in June, according to fund managers and filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Money market funds with total assets of $300 billion have invested in subprime debt this year.
Under SEC rules, money market managers must invest in securities with "minimal credit risks." Joseph Mason, a finance professor at Drexel University in Philadelphia and a former economist at the U.S. Treasury Department, says subprime debt in money market funds is far from safe.
"This creates tremendous risk for today's money market investors," says Mason, who wrote an 84-page report on CDOs this year.
Satyajit Das, a former Citigroup Inc. banker and author of 10 books on debt analysis, says those ratings are very misleading. "I don't think the typical money market investor, in his wildest dreams, would assume he has exposure to the risk of subprime CDOs," he says. "They may be in for an unpleasant surprise."
Bank of New York Mellon Corp.'s Dreyfus unit has banned CDO commercial paper from its $110 billion in money market funds because it has found that analyzing subprime holdings in CDOs is too difficult.
Goldsaint, that is exactly why I won't put my "safe" money into suppposedly safe securities, bonds, money markets, treasuries, and other similar items. Who knows what the real exposure is? My 401K firm has a "stable-value" fund offering that is comprised on top securities, insurance policies, contracts etc with banks, municipalities, and other flavors. What junk could be hiding in the mess?
Oh yeah, and gold finally hit $740 last night on overseas trading. So far it has rebounded on every attempt to knock it back under $720.
As much as a lot of us are speculating on our $, is it possible that our government is also buying GOLD!!!! Yes it is going up but do you think the Greatest Power in the World would allow it's self to just deal in paper......We have a boat load of ignorance in Washington but there are some who can and I hope are buying some of the Gold Stuff but none of us will know until that day comes.....With out the United Stares participation on the World Markets the rest of the world will suffer also....we do not stand alone in this fragile scenario
"So far it has rebounded on every attempt to knock it back under $720."
It's like we're watching the blow by blow of a huge battle by titans and it certainly is entertaining, especially when all the bets are recorded and in play. The only problem is, we can't watch the players and we don't even know for sure which individuals are actually throwing the punches. All I know is watching the judges scoring, it looks like the evil forces of the 660 side are losing badly to the 700+ side with futures contracts selling at well above 700. I think that we can say that since gold is in it's third week above 700 that it has broken out of the underdog status and is standing straight and throwing solid punches. Dec contracts are at 735 and this is only Sept and it's been around 730 all week. It sure would be nice to get a KO and let the barbarous relic run free. This has to just scare the hell out of all the people with paper and no PM because no one is going to give them 700+ PM for paper at 350...somebody is going down!
The ESF/PPT buying gold for the US govt? I'd have to see it to believe it. Those guys do not want a strong gold policy! Now favored govt players like GS, JPM, and others could be buying gold for the time being (ie making money), until the Treasury tells them to bail prior to them making a massive effort to turn gold once again. These big boys are going with the flow to make money. Once the flow starts to ebb they will short the heck out of gold once again.
the government does NOT buy gold, except on the open market for coin production. Think about it, who would buy it, with what funds (they are all appropriated) and where would they keep it? The us govt does not "invest" in metals.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
<< <i>where would they keep it Fort Knox Kentucky Woah...GOLD!!! >>
I've long believed that the pretty stacks of gold bars we see in pictures from Fort Knox are nothing more than gold plated lead.
Something just tells me that the bulk of the real gold was looted from there many, many years ago.
No conspiracy involved, just the thiefs that have run our government since the FDR days. Does anyone really know? Has there ever been a real audit by an outside firm? I don't believe so.
I guess it just shows my jaded view of our elected and appointed overlords, err, I mean our wonderful public servants who have dedicated their lives towards our betterment.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>"So far it has rebounded on every attempt to knock it back under $720."
It's like we're watching the blow by blow of a huge battle by titans and it certainly is entertaining, especially when all the bets are recorded and in play. The only problem is, we can't watch the players and we don't even know for sure which individuals are actually throwing the punches. All I know is watching the judges scoring, it looks like the evil forces of the 660 side are losing badly to the 700+ side with futures contracts selling at well above 700. I think that we can say that since gold is in it's third week above 700 that it has broken out of the underdog status and is standing straight and throwing solid punches. Dec contracts are at 735 and this is only Sept and it's been around 730 all week. It sure would be nice to get a KO and let the barbarous relic run free. This has to just scare the hell out of all the people with paper and no PM because no one is going to give them 700+ PM for paper at 350...somebody is going down! >>
Great analogy , there have been definite support levels that have slowly been going up , I am not sure what the current support will be or who controls the exact number ...they do appear to be pushing for 735 ...we will see if todays breakout screws with their plans or whether they have to find a new number
With the dollar declining and the fallout from the housing market decline rippling through the economy, including the various industries that provide materials and durable goods to home builders, we could be mired in economic stagnation or recession coupled with inflation. We import so much and export so little in comparison that the declining dollar will be inflationary, as the cost of imports in dollars goes up while GDP goes down. The Fed will be disinclined to raise rates while the economy is struggling, which will keep the dollar weak. A decline in tax revenues from a contracting economy will force the Federal gov't to cut spending or borrow more to finance the deficit or raise taxes. Cutting spending does not seem to be in the cards while we are mired in two wars and rattling sablers at other countries. Borrowing more money will be tough when our interest rates are lower than foreign governments are paying. And raising taxes during a recession is obviously problematic. Not a pretty picture.
So here's the challenge to all of you financial geniuses. Post a solutoin to the problem.
Actually, I noticed it going public last week. There was actually a section on regular TV during the business segment where they flashed up a screen showing precious metals prices and futures. Just like they were doing back in the 80's. Additionally, I have been noticing segments in the paper where 'mainstream' business analysts give their take on the economy, and very frequently now there is mention of the precious metals and most of it has been very bullish for the next year.
I think we may finally be entering the bull phase where we just may be seeing some NICE price increases. The public... and mainstream business.... IS NOTICING and starting to touch their toes in the water....
This current 3rd phase of the present cycle is very similar to how gold responded in late 2005 to May of 2006 movement ($500 to $730). The 16 month base built since May 2006 has certainly stored up a lot of energy to spring from.
Long term monthly gold chart seems to remain rather bullish. So to those that keep saying gold won't or can't, the chart is still saying something else.
Well my friends we are headed into fall, one more quarter left in this year, any speculations?
Here’s mine
I think certain sectors of the stock market will do pretty well in the forth quarter baring any serious calamities. The Fed has given everyone false hope that they can solve the credit problems, and that, and the holiday spirit, might carry us through into the New Year.
We will see what happens to the housing market in the next few months, but even with ARM resets, and more foreclosures, I think most are convince, for now, that the Fed will step in and save the day.
I also think that it is about time for the big boys to come in and step hard on GOLD!
We may have a pull back and one more opportunity to buy the metal or the ETF’S.
I think the same will happen with oil, time for a rest, and perhaps a drop to the mid 70’s.
As far as the public is concerned, I do not think they are in the gold market as yet, even though the news is more prevalent. I am even seeing national adds to send in your jewelry to be melted and get CASH!
Was looking around kitco today and found this thread. Basically their version of our "gold and economic news" thread. 452 pages.
Some things worth paying attention to. Their lead prognisticator, Cyclist, is forseeing Oct 4th and 5th as the current high in physical and paper gold. Expects the HUI to tank proprionately. Gold reaching as high as 780/800 this week. Let's see how he does.
"I am even seeing national adds to send in your jewelry to be melted and get CASH!"
Oddly enough, these ads show up when small/mid players (but players none the less) are trying to get a position on the PM at below market, bulk rates. Usually they aren't too far off. Reminds me of seeing that the over/under on the Astros season wins was 72 back in june (our class reunion in vegas). They have two more games to play and have 70 wins right now. They called the finish three months ago...those prognosticators know their business and they are darned good at it. Those gold adds are good signals for bugs.
Speculations: "Their lead prognisticator, Cyclist" I like to follow him too. He does seem to have his head in the game, he could post here. Some times I get the impression that that group thinks a long term hold is something just outside of 30 minutes. Here are my speculations.
I'm still accumulating dated US gold as opposed to bullion mainly because of laws that allow numismatic coins in private hands while the congress could seemingly recall privately held bullion. There has been discussion about gold surrender orders like in '33 but that seems pretty radical but better safe than sorry so coins for me and since I like them and they are very collectible, doubt there will be much change in strategy here and they seem to be exceptionally stable. Besides, there are the transaction recording problems with bullion, leaves a neon trail.
Staying mostly away from stocks right now, only because it is just so expensive to get the solid stocks with dividends in any significant quantity and the small/mid stocks are scarey to me. About half of the stocks I'm holding are part of annuity plans and there is not much I can do to manage them. The rest are long term holds for me. I've developed a mild allergy to new paper but that's just me.
The housing situation is going to go on for a while, some say into late '08 but it seems like mid/early '08 should expose a majority of the troubled sub primes around here but there is still going to be some pain...as a contrarian, it seems like this is a very good time to start looking for distressed real estate eventhough it may be early next year before prime hunting time. Good place to keep an eye out. I would consider liquidating a group of the weaker coins or ones that are unimportant to me in order to help fund a primary residence upgrade, seems like a no brainer and fixed non jumbos are cheap right now (less than 6%). Real estate seems like a place to at least look around for good situations.
More entitlement programs and more international military activity in concert with continued high balance of trade deficits is going to bring pain on the national budget and the housing/subprime/cdo situation is going to pressure a lot of supply sectors. We are in a situation where there is a global repositioning of resource ownership, including currencies. Hey, things change, you will adapt. Commodities, including oil, are going to stay under pressure but grains will gain the headlines. Grains are already showing notible shortages mainly because of bad weather and crop yields (maybe it's just an anomaly for this year) and we haven't even entered winter yet.
Still prefer a strategy that maintains as much balance as I can with investments and I just peck at it continuously, putting some in and not taking any out. Steady, balanced, accumulative. No big plays here...just one foot in front of the other. If some comes out of this pile, it goes into another pile, no net loss of asset quantity allowed other than repositioning.
So, other than some adjustments to my coin holdings, a look for a residence upgrade and steady balanced pecking at accumulation. I don't see any reason to jump around and change strategies for the forth quarter. If you don't have a position in gold now, it may be a little late until we see a dip to the low, low 700s, if we get one...can we still wish for 660? It is nice to see PM in play. For those have been working on it for a couple of years...you get a nice roi and maybe a little pay day.
1500 of the banks investors had over $100,000 in their accounts. The bank had several $ BILL in assets and > 100,000 customers. FDIC makes agreement with ING bank to take it over. Just a sign of the times. Another sub-prime casualty.
What in the hell is an online bank doing in the sub-prime derivative business? So much for online banking, how can you see a run on a bank online?
“NetBank of Alpharetta, Ga., the nation's oldest online bank with $2.5 billion in assets and $2.3 billion in deposits, was shut down Friday by the Office of Thrift Supervision due to poor performance and a high level of mortgage defaults. "We don't want people to get the idea that there was fraud or security problem," Kuhlmann added. "The FDIC wanted to take over the bank on a Friday to make sure there was no panic," Kuhlmann said.”
This is post 4445 The next week or 2 are crucial to everything we have been discussing , Will someone step in to support the dollar?? I think they will and that will put a damper on the PMs. Will more small banks be closed down?? I think they will and that will put a damper on the dollar. Stocks are too frothy at these levels and I am staying away. Real estate still has a long way to fall despite the lower interest rates...its a buyers market with the buyers waiting for the market to turn around before they commit. Personally I am going to trade the ETFs (GLD and SLV) over the next week or 2 and try and be out when someone steps in to support the dollar....when gold could drop below 700 and siver back into the 12s before they resume their bull market
Why do you believe anyone would support the dollar if the Fed won't? There is no reason to do so as long as the decline is orderly, nobody is going to care.
<< <i>Why do you believe anyone would support the dollar if the Fed won't? There is no reason to do so as long as the decline is orderly, nobody is going to care. >>
There are a lot of people being hurt by a weak dollar and History shows that the ECB or the Japanese step in whenever their currencies are hurt by a weak dollar, nowadays the Chinese and oil exporters also have a stake in a strong dollar. I dont know what to hope for , but I think that we can rule out the FED supporting the dollar even though the Treasury insists that a strong dollar is their goal.
Comments
<< <i>4399
LOL.
<< <i>It would appear, that various governments are sending public
signals to each other, as to who the top bull will be, as it comes to
vital resources. What the heck, there are already too many people on
earth. What's wrong with a few billion less. So 4 of the continents become
radioactive for a thousand years. As long as we have canned beans and
diet coke, all will be well.
But our gold would be worth less if a billion were missing
The numismatic premium of dated gold far exceeds any bullion value. Bullion is not rare, some gold coins are.
NO MORE ATM’S ON HOUSES AND NOW NO MORE CREDIT CARDS. YOU THINK CONSUMER SPENDING MIGHT SLOW DOWN?
From The Times
September 24, 2007
Banks cut card limits and reject borrowers in consumer credit crackdown!
High street banks are slashing credit card limits and turning away droves of borrowers in a consumer credit crackdown.
Banks hope that by tightening up lending standards they will cut the cost of servicing problem borrowers.
Half a million Barclaycard customers have seen their credit limits reduced in a continuing review by Barclays of its customers’ spending behaviour.
The bank is rejecting half of all applications for cards and is monitoring card-users closely for signs of trouble.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
About a month ago I posted a note from Jim Sinclair that said that, “Central Bank Gold” never went into the open gold market. Well according to John Browne that is not exactly correct. In fact much of the Central bank gold may already be dispersed around the world with no way to retrieve it. The plot is really thickening!
John Browne, Friday, Sept. 2007
Yesterday, Barron's Online posted a most interesting item entitled, "A Secret Time Bomb Made of Gold."
We had written about this subject, some nine months ago, but emphasizing a slightly different point. Our title was, "The Great Government "Gold Bluff" starting to Unravel."
The recent Barron's article refers to, "A little-known fountain of free money called the "gold carry trade" is in danger of drying up. And if it does, then markets from gold to bonds and even stocks can be in for a wild ride."
The Barron's article explains that the gold carry trade is similar to the yen carry trade and goes on to say that, "Central banks are generally sitting on huge supplies of gold that earn them no interest and cost them money just to store securely. To earn them a little revenue on these static assets, they loan their gold to banks called bullion banks, at a ridiculously low interest rate on the order of 1 percent."
As we understand it, these so-called "bullion banks" include major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs (manager of the "Global Alpha" fund, engaged in the yen-Australian dollar carry trade and down by 44 percent from its peak in March 2006) and Morgan Stanley.
As Barron's explains, "The banks turn around and sell the gold in the market, typically in the London bullion market, and invest the proceeds in a higher paying asset, such as long-term Treasury bonds. If bonds pay 4.6% then the banks earn an easy 3.6%.
The problem, states Barron's, is that” if the gold price starts to rise, profits can be wiped out or turned to losses. And in today's markets, a falling dollar not only boosts gold prices, it also makes Treasury bonds less attractive to foreign investors. That reduces demand and weakens prices to create a potential double-edged sword for carry traders."
However, there is another most important issue involved that is not covered in the Barron's article — the proper accounting for the gold in the vaults of central banks.
This is extremely important as it points directly at the vital issue of "monetary confidence" that we are likely to be in need of as we face the immediate economic and financial future.
Gold is not just a hedge against inflation. It is also a hedge against a collapse of confidence in the increasingly delicate issue that is "monetary confidence."
The next vital question would be, "How much of the gold in the vaults of central banks actually still belongs to those central banks?"
Much of the gold lent to the bullion banks, who sell it into the market, belongs to third parties. The gold is removed from the vaults of the central banks and replaced by the IOU's of the bullion banks.
Many of these same bullion banks have unknown amounts of "toxic sub-prime waste" sitting on their books at unknown prices.
The lax accounting rules of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have allowed the central banks to include, under the board accounting category of "Reserves" even the paper IOUs representing the gold that they have leased to the bullion banks and has been "sold' to third parties.
Our researches show the total amount of gold "leased" out by the central banks, in return for the IOU's of the bullion banks, is estimated to be some 17,000 tonnes of gold.
To put that figure into perspective, we understand that the central banks together hold some 32,000 tonnes of gold held in their vaults. But it includes the 17,000 tonnes worth of paper IOU's.
Someone goes bust in that deal.
The 1990's gold carry game basically allowed the gold miners to become hedgers and betters. They ramped back on putting money into mining infrastructure so that they could make money on interest rate deals. This will come back to haunt many of them in the future.
While Barrick made supposedly $2 BILLION on interest rate deals in the 1990's and early 2000's, they now stand to lose BILLIONS more on their 9 MILL oz of hedged gold production.
The "double" counting of gold reserves is indeed an interesting anomaly.
roadrunner
I had heard about the gold carry "trade" but I didn't know what it was.
Vampires do exist after all.
I suspect when the time comes to replace the gold the fed will get generous with their cohorts and bankroll the purchases?
San Diego, CA
I would hope that they would enact the following:
1.Usury laws to prevent excessive Credit card interest rates
2.service charges.
3.Laws to guarantee up front, full disclosure on mortgage contracts
4. Review recent changes in bankruptcy laws ,which penalize decent
hard working folks.
5. Place more Federal investment into renewable, non polluting energy sources.
6. Restore windfall profit laws
7. Review NAFTA and all such agreements ,that cause the offshore placement of jobs
and loss of manufacturing within the USA.
8. Clearly mark all foods, manufactured goods , assembly or raw materials which are produced
assembled or manufactured outside of USA, as to the Nation of origin.
9. Provide tax incentives companies, Manufacturing and production of goods within the USA by American
Labor.
10. Provide tax incentives for American Auto companies to exceed the Miles per gallon as compared
with like products foreign made.Better Miles, more incentives.
11. Significantly enlarge the military,even if it requires a temporary special tax.
12. Increase the money alloted to veteran medical treatment and benefits.
It is about time we started looking after American Companies and American Labor.
Camelot
<< <i>When the congress is more in tune with working folks
I would hope that they would enact the following:
1.Usury laws to prevent excessive Credit card interest rates
2.service charges.
3.Laws to guarantee up front, full disclosure on mortgage contracts
4. Review recent changes in bankruptcy laws ,which penalize decent
hard working folks.
5. Place more Federal investment into renewable, non polluting energy sources.
6. Restore windfall profit laws
7. Review NAFTA and all such agreements ,that cause the offshore placement of jobs
and loss of manufacturing within the USA.
8. Clearly mark all foods, manufactured goods , assembly or raw materials which are produced
assembled or manufactured outside of USA, as to the Nation of origin.
9. Provide tax incentives companies, Manufacturing and production of goods within the USA by American
Labor.
10. Provide tax incentives for American Auto companies to exceed the Miles per gallon as compared
with like products foreign made.Better Miles, more incentives.
11. Significantly enlarge the military,even if it requires a temporary special tax.
12. Increase the money alloted to veteran medical treatment and benefits.
It is about time we started looking after American Companies and American Labor. >>
While I share your sentiments and would love to see this happen, my gut reaction is that we can expect this about the same time as pigs sprout wings and take flight.
I would add in an audit of the Federal Reserve while we're at it. Some say that JFK had intended to do just that and that might explain a lot right there.
Too much wisdom for any Congress critter to understand, much less enact.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>"Gold is soaring but scarce gold coins are not following the trend...comments?"
. >>
I'm sure there's a few sellers who would be eager to sell you 1799-1801 Eagles in Choice AU for 25 G's.
Such a deal
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
roadrunner
<< <i>The FED is a private company running a business on "contract." Why would an audit be warranted? Instead, why not end the contract and stop paying user fees to use our own money.
roadrunner >>
I agree we should end the contract, but an audit might provide the ammunition needed to justify the action.
If Congress was faced with the fraud and the audit were to become public information, they would have little choice.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Now, that would be an interesting platform for one of the major political parties to put their saddle on and the chances of that happening are less than 0. It is quizical that there are many entities that keep track of how much money I earn, have in the bank, have in stock, have due the I rs, but how much they have is a big doo dah...kinda makes me go hummmmmm until I realize that there is nothing that I or anybody else can do about it. Sit back, enjoy the ride, it's all good.
But one alternative is give power back to Congress for issuing money???
Congress and the President has been so irresponsible since 1963 in maintaining a balanced budget inclusive of social security and medicare that they have forced the Federal Reserve to do all of Congress's dirty work to keep things on an even keel.
Congress would have done a better job? No way.
Gold standards is not without its risk. Inflation is not banished with the gold standard as you saw hyperinflation on the West Coast after the discovery of gold in 1849. It does not happen often but it does happen.
A true fractional reserve as it was meant to be established is still the best way to go. But when I mean fractional reserve, I mean a reserve of 40-50% of all paper currency and credit obligations must be backed by gold and another 10% by silver.
We have had some great Federal reserve Chairmans (Volker et al) who saw that we had to bring our economy to our knees to keep inflation halfway in check back in the late 1970's and early 1980's. Congress would never had the guts to do that.
A couple of years ago I made a post here for us to watch out for the Arabs and the Chinese to move into Gold in a big way. My assumption was that we might not know what they were buying in their open market, but I thought that they would start making plays to buy whole mining gold companies, and cut out the middlemen.
Over the last two years I just could not understand why I did not wake up one morning and read in Bloomberg that the Chinese were buying so and so gold mining company.
I think this week the reason is becoming pretty clear. Besides RR’s post on Barrick this past week, here is another article one from Jim Sinclair this morning, on Newmont, and the Juniors. It appears that many many of these gold mining companies are upside down due to their short sightedness, and their pre-selling their reserves at very low prices via derivatives.
In simple terms they are full of toxic waste paper!
It looks like one is only safe with ones gold investments if one buys the metal, and takes possession?
Jim Sinclair,
Sept. 27/07
When you close out over the counter short of gold derivatives and lose 2.0 billion dollars (or 2,000 million), you have to charge that loss somewhere.
According to the Statement of Auditing Standards 133 - which has since been replaced by 138 - the loss on the close of these OTC derivatives MUST be charged as an expense to the project for which the OTC derivative was taken. The end result is an increase in unit production costs for each encumbered project as the loss on the derivative is a specific COST to that project.
Newmont is fulfilling its obligations under regulation 10b-5. Any junior that had a percentage deal on a property that Newmont was developing for them has a 10b-5 requirement to inform their shareholders that costs are rising on the project. (Many of these will be deep under water due to these costs but their shareholders will not be told this).
As such, many juniors - especially those that are too thick headed and opinionated to know they have a problem - or those that know but will simply not divulge the issue to anyone - are going to be in total violation of 10 b-5. This could open the door to a host of class action litigations.
Derivatives are set to destroy and in many cases eliminate “exposed” percentage juniors from the scene while allowing Barrick to be the major consolidator in the gold industry.
1. Since Barrick intends to deliver against OTC forward sales, it will be delivering gold at $325 even if gold is trading at $750 or better. Caveat for protection: You know how I feel about gold.
2. Because Barrick declares its intention to deliver, the company avoids the major impact of having to mark to market losses on the forward sales. This is Canadian GAAP (General Accepted Accounting Practices).
Today's inflation is created by the FED. Whether it shows up immediately here or overseas are the only variables. It does go somewhere.
Here's a nice graph of M3 increase. Note the rapid vertical ascent since 1996 when Greenspan lit the afterburners. They have not been turned off since even though M1 and M2 have dropped separately....M3 has more than made up the difference. One can have runs on banks and hyperinflation from many causes. If anything, the FED has increased the likelihood of drastic market cycles from all their meddling.
Now in whose pockets did the 95-97% loss in the US Dollar go to? That's a factor of 20 in the shifting of wealth. Someone once had it and now someone else has it.
Parrots and M3?
Sinclair has stated that Barrick is big enough to be underwater on its own hedge position and still consolidate the industry by absorbing juniors who flunk out on derivatives 101. I'm not sure how that all happens but if anyone knows the biz, he does. Barrick has often been said to be linked directly to the FED via Goldman Sachs or other connected brokerages/banks. It would not surprise me.
At one point in time Sinclair was a short list candidate for Treasury Secretary. That would have been a good choice for a president looking to restore some honesty to the job.
roadrunner
we are not going to have an easy ride...key is to be on the side that expands and profits from the doom and gloom that WILL happen.
i think there are too many with their heads in the sand right now, time to put...put....put, if one can have a few weeks or month or two of patience.
corn might be one thing i would go long on.
I was reading this article by Gary North as he made a statement that M3 (removed by the FED in early 2006) was a totally useless
barometer for price inflation. His proof is that M1 has more accurately predicted price inflation (ie most closely mirrors CPI) than any other monetary stat from 1971 to date. Of course his end result is correct, but is that because M1 is the key stat that the FED watches? According to North we are in a deflationary mode right now.
Skim the first half and the meat is in the 2nd half of the article.
My thought was that over the past 35 years we have essentially exported much of our potential price inflation by utilizing cheap overseas labor to supply us with inexpensive goods. What would happen if that inexpensive labor became pricier as Asia industrializes? Does our exported price inflation come back home rather quickly? Something tells me North is missing something in his analysis, such as debt=money, and that the CPI methodology has indeed changed since 1983 as to be inaccurate for comparisons today. Lloyd would positively love North's article.
Thoughts? Comments?
roadrunner
Unsafe Havens
By David Evans
Bloomberg Markets September 28, 2007
Money market funds were invented 37 years ago to offer investors better returns than bank savings accounts while providing a high degree of safety. Most of the $2.5 trillion sitting in these funds is invested in such assets as U.S. Treasury bills, certificates of deposit and short-term commercial debt.
Unlike bank accounts, money market funds aren't insured by the federal government. They almost never fail.
Unbeknownst to most investors, some of the largest money market funds today are putting part of their cash into one of the riskiest debt investments in the world: collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime mortgage loans.
CDOs are packages of bonds and loans, and almost half of all CDOs sold in the U.S. in 2006 contained subprime debt, according to a March report by Moody's Investors Service.
U.S. money market funds run by Bank of America Corp., Credit Suisse Group, Fidelity Investments and Morgan Stanley held more than $6 billion of CDOs with subprime debt in June, according to fund managers and filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Money market funds with total assets of $300 billion have invested in subprime debt this year.
Under SEC rules, money market managers must invest in securities with "minimal credit risks." Joseph Mason, a finance professor at Drexel University in Philadelphia and a former economist at the U.S. Treasury Department, says subprime debt in money market funds is far from safe.
"This creates tremendous risk for today's money market investors," says Mason, who wrote an 84-page report on CDOs this year.
Satyajit Das, a former Citigroup Inc. banker and author of 10 books on debt analysis, says those ratings are very misleading. "I don't think the typical money market investor, in his wildest dreams, would assume he has exposure to the risk of subprime CDOs," he says. "They may be in for an unpleasant surprise."
Bank of New York Mellon Corp.'s Dreyfus unit has banned CDO commercial paper from its $110 billion in money market funds because it has found that analyzing subprime holdings in CDOs is too difficult.
Oh yeah, and gold finally hit $740 last night on overseas trading.
So far it has rebounded on every attempt to knock it back under $720.
roadrunner
It's like we're watching the blow by blow of a huge battle by titans and it certainly is entertaining, especially when all the bets are recorded and in play. The only problem is, we can't watch the players and we don't even know for sure which individuals are actually throwing the punches. All I know is watching the judges scoring, it looks like the evil forces of the 660 side are losing badly to the 700+ side with futures contracts selling at well above 700. I think that we can say that since gold is in it's third week above 700 that it has broken out of the underdog status and is standing straight and throwing solid punches. Dec contracts are at 735 and this is only Sept and it's been around 730 all week. It sure would be nice to get a KO and let the barbarous relic run free. This has to just scare the hell out of all the people with paper and no PM because no one is going to give them 700+ PM for paper at 350...somebody is going down!
These big boys are going with the flow to make money. Once the flow starts to ebb they will short the heck out of gold once again.
roadrunner
Central Banks, U S BIS
Federal gold trading
where would they keep it
Fort Knox Kentucky
Woah...GOLD!!!
<< <i>where would they keep it
Fort Knox Kentucky
Woah...GOLD!!! >>
I've long believed that the pretty stacks of gold bars we see in pictures from Fort Knox are nothing more than gold plated lead.
Something just tells me that the bulk of the real gold was looted from there many, many years ago.
No conspiracy involved, just the thiefs that have run our government since the FDR days. Does anyone really know? Has there ever been a real audit by an outside firm? I don't believe so.
I guess it just shows my jaded view of our elected and appointed overlords, err, I mean our wonderful public servants who have dedicated their lives towards our betterment.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>"So far it has rebounded on every attempt to knock it back under $720."
It's like we're watching the blow by blow of a huge battle by titans and it certainly is entertaining, especially when all the bets are recorded and in play. The only problem is, we can't watch the players and we don't even know for sure which individuals are actually throwing the punches. All I know is watching the judges scoring, it looks like the evil forces of the 660 side are losing badly to the 700+ side with futures contracts selling at well above 700. I think that we can say that since gold is in it's third week above 700 that it has broken out of the underdog status and is standing straight and throwing solid punches. Dec contracts are at 735 and this is only Sept and it's been around 730 all week. It sure would be nice to get a KO and let the barbarous relic run free. This has to just scare the hell out of all the people with paper and no PM because no one is going to give them 700+ PM for paper at 350...somebody is going down! >>
Great analogy , there have been definite support levels that have slowly been going up , I am not sure what the current support will be or who controls the exact number ...they do appear to be pushing for 735 ...we will see if todays breakout screws with their plans or whether they have to find a new number
So here's the challenge to all of you financial geniuses. Post a solutoin to the problem.
CG
CNN Gold
Reuters Gold via Drudge
I think we may finally be entering the bull phase where we just may be seeing some NICE price increases. The public... and mainstream business.... IS NOTICING and starting to touch their toes in the water....
Long term monthly gold chart seems to remain rather bullish.
So to those that keep saying gold won't or can't, the chart is still
saying something else.
35 year monthly gold chart
Clif Droke on investor sentiment - interesting
roadrunner
Well my friends we are headed into fall, one more quarter left in this year, any speculations?
Here’s mine
I think certain sectors of the stock market will do pretty well in the forth quarter baring any serious calamities. The Fed has given everyone false hope that they can solve the credit problems, and that, and the holiday spirit, might carry us through into the New Year.
We will see what happens to the housing market in the next few months, but even with ARM resets, and more foreclosures, I think most are convince, for now, that the Fed will step in and save the day.
I also think that it is about time for the big boys to come in and step hard on GOLD!
We may have a pull back and one more opportunity to buy the metal or the ETF’S.
I think the same will happen with oil, time for a rest, and perhaps a drop to the mid 70’s.
As far as the public is concerned, I do not think they are in the gold market as yet, even though the news is more prevalent. I am even seeing national adds to send in your jewelry to be melted and get CASH!
Some things worth paying attention to. Their lead prognisticator, Cyclist, is forseeing Oct 4th and 5th as the current high in physical and paper gold. Expects the HUI to tank proprionately. Gold reaching as high as 780/800 this week. Let's see how he does.
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=85&page=452
The link doesn't work so you'll have to cut and paste it.
roadrunner
flair up then gold is at 850 and oil is at 95-100 dollars a barrel.
Iran sent a top delegation to Turkey to attempt to get answers
to who flew the planes that bombed their territory and to give a
warning to Turkey that Iran would act forcefully if their is a repeat
of such violation of Syrian air space.
Turkey, bless their stiff necked, proud and stubborn souls, told the
Syrian delegation to go pound salt on all accounts. The turks do not
like being threatened by any one and if they should be attacked by
any nation , Turkey is always ready and willing to oblige.
If anyone remembers the Turkish brigade in the Korean war, the N Koreans
attacked a Turkish unit thinking that they were S. Koreans. The Turkish troops
fixed bayonets, came out of their foxholes and wiped out the enemy. There after,
the Chinese and N. Koreans were very careful to check, on where the Turkish Troops were
located, before they decided to attack or attack not.
Camelot
Oddly enough, these ads show up when small/mid players (but players none the less) are trying to get a position on the PM at below market, bulk rates. Usually they aren't too far off. Reminds me of seeing that the over/under on the Astros season wins was 72 back in june (our class reunion in vegas). They have two more games to play and have 70 wins right now. They called the finish three months ago...those prognosticators know their business and they are darned good at it. Those gold adds are good signals for bugs.
Speculations: "Their lead prognisticator, Cyclist" I like to follow him too. He does seem to have his head in the game, he could post here. Some times I get the impression that that group thinks a long term hold is something just outside of 30 minutes. Here are my speculations.
I'm still accumulating dated US gold as opposed to bullion mainly because of laws that allow numismatic coins in private hands while the congress could seemingly recall privately held bullion. There has been discussion about gold surrender orders like in '33 but that seems pretty radical but better safe than sorry so coins for me and since I like them and they are very collectible, doubt there will be much change in strategy here and they seem to be exceptionally stable. Besides, there are the transaction recording problems with bullion, leaves a neon trail.
Staying mostly away from stocks right now, only because it is just so expensive to get the solid stocks with dividends in any significant quantity and the small/mid stocks are scarey to me. About half of the stocks I'm holding are part of annuity plans and there is not much I can do to manage them. The rest are long term holds for me. I've developed a mild allergy to new paper but that's just me.
The housing situation is going to go on for a while, some say into late '08 but it seems like mid/early '08 should expose a majority of the troubled sub primes around here but there is still going to be some pain...as a contrarian, it seems like this is a very good time to start looking for distressed real estate eventhough it may be early next year before prime hunting time. Good place to keep an eye out. I would consider liquidating a group of the weaker coins or ones that are unimportant to me in order to help fund a primary residence upgrade, seems like a no brainer and fixed non jumbos are cheap right now (less than 6%). Real estate seems like a place to at least look around for good situations.
More entitlement programs and more international military activity in concert with continued high balance of trade deficits is going to bring pain on the national budget and the housing/subprime/cdo situation is going to pressure a lot of supply sectors. We are in a situation where there is a global repositioning of resource ownership, including currencies. Hey, things change, you will adapt. Commodities, including oil, are going to stay under pressure but grains will gain the headlines. Grains are already showing notible shortages mainly because of bad weather and crop yields (maybe it's just an anomaly for this year) and we haven't even entered winter yet.
Still prefer a strategy that maintains as much balance as I can with investments and I just peck at it continuously, putting some in and not taking any out. Steady, balanced, accumulative. No big plays here...just one foot in front of the other. If some comes out of this pile, it goes into another pile, no net loss of asset quantity allowed other than repositioning.
So, other than some adjustments to my coin holdings, a look for a residence upgrade and steady balanced pecking at accumulation. I don't see any reason to jump around and change strategies for the forth quarter. If you don't have a position in gold now, it may be a little late until we see a dip to the low, low 700s, if we get one...can we still wish for 660? It is nice to see PM in play. For those have been working on it for a couple of years...you get a nice roi and maybe a little pay day.
JMHO
1500 of the banks investors had over $100,000 in their accounts.
The bank had several $ BILL in assets and > 100,000 customers.
FDIC makes agreement with ING bank to take it over.
Just a sign of the times. Another sub-prime casualty.
roadrunner
Thanks
What in the hell is an online bank doing in the sub-prime derivative business?
So much for online banking, how can you see a run on a bank online?
“NetBank of Alpharetta, Ga., the nation's oldest online bank with $2.5 billion in assets and $2.3 billion in deposits, was shut down Friday by the Office of Thrift Supervision due to poor performance and a high level of mortgage defaults.
"We don't want people to get the idea that there was fraud or security problem," Kuhlmann added.
"The FDIC wanted to take over the bank on a Friday to make sure there was no panic," Kuhlmann said.”
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
The next week or 2 are crucial to everything we have been discussing ,
Will someone step in to support the dollar?? I think they will and that will put a damper on the PMs.
Will more small banks be closed down?? I think they will and that will put a damper on the dollar.
Stocks are too frothy at these levels and I am staying away.
Real estate still has a long way to fall despite the lower interest rates...its a buyers market with the buyers waiting for the market to turn around before they commit.
Personally I am going to trade the ETFs (GLD and SLV) over the next week or 2 and try and be out when someone steps in to support the dollar....when gold could drop below 700 and siver back into the 12s before they resume their bull market
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
Could not reply to PM for some reason , maybe yours is not activated
GLD and SLV trade like regular stocks thru any online broker
<< <i>Why do you believe anyone would support the dollar if the Fed won't? There is no reason to do so as long as the decline is orderly, nobody is going to care. >>
There are a lot of people being hurt by a weak dollar and History shows that the ECB or the Japanese step in whenever their currencies are hurt by a weak dollar, nowadays the Chinese and oil exporters also have a stake in a strong dollar.
I dont know what to hope for , but I think that we can rule out the FED supporting the dollar even though the Treasury insists that a strong dollar is their goal.