Siver was $6.85 in May of 05, so it has more than doubled.
Will it double again in 2 years? Or have we reached the climax for silver, for a while?
Wish I could tavel forward in time, it would make it so easy to decide to sell the farm. Could it be $25 an ounce in a few years?
So far I've accumulated over 1000 ounces over the past 6 years, should I sell some? >>
There's no way to know.
It's fairly safe to predict that at some point in the future silver will be far higher than it is today. This day probably can't be more than twenty years out unless there's a long depression in the interim. It's not a certainty since silver could start com- ing off the ocean floor but it's a safe bet. It could be a major loss if one of these other events occur.
One other point; There is virtually no resistance in silver above $14 per ounce. Once it clearly is above this level there will be almost no individuals who sell because it has attained some specific level. There will be a slight resistance at $24 and even slighter around $38 but both of these could be taken out with no more than a momentary pause. Of course the price still has to have fundamentals pushing it higher even after it gets through fourteen dollars.
<< <i>Wow...just wow. Real estate is probably the absolute worst place to put money right now, and will continue to be a poor investment for at least 3 more years. >>
It certainly is in Texas right now. Prices are dropping 30-40% in some areas and property taxes are rising 10% annually. Many people are losing their homes to taxes and it's not uncommon for your taxes to be more than your mortgage.
I'd gladly sell my home to the county right now for 80% of their appraised value for taxation. I doubt I could sell it for for much more than 60%, if that. I've seen homes in my neighborhood valued at close to $450K for tax purposes end up selling for around $240K. Seen it happen twice in just the last 3 months. Those two were probably ARMs, but I don't know. I do know it's got everyone walking on eggs. All of this crash in home values has happened in just the last 9 months or so. >>
doesn't the Republic of Texas have "prop 13" limit on property taxes, similar to the Republic of California??
<< <i>Wow...just wow. Real estate is probably the absolute worst place to put money right now, and will continue to be a poor investment for at least 3 more years. >>
It certainly is in Texas right now. Prices are dropping 30-40% in some areas and property taxes are rising 10% annually. Many people are losing their homes to taxes and it's not uncommon for your taxes to be more than your mortgage.
I'd gladly sell my home to the county right now for 80% of their appraised value for taxation. I doubt I could sell it for for much more than 60%, if that. I've seen homes in my neighborhood valued at close to $450K for tax purposes end up selling for around $240K. Seen it happen twice in just the last 3 months. Those two were probably ARMs, but I don't know. I do know it's got everyone walking on eggs. All of this crash in home values has happened in just the last 9 months or so. >>
doesn't the Republic of Texas have "prop 13" limit on property taxes, similar to the Republic of California?? >>
Nope, not even close. It can raise 10% per year and even more if they let you slip below that 10% anytime in the last 5 years. They can make up the difference. That's what has happened to me. I beat the pants off them two years ago using comparables and recent sales, this year mine went up 39%. Little payback there, I'd suppose. I did fight them, went through three hearings, hired a good legal firm and I got back less than 1/3 of 1%.
Yeah, I can pay it, but I'm not happy about it considering that the value of my home is now considerably less than they are appraising it at.
At 10% per year, values will double in 7 years. Mine are now up 50% in the last 3 and I have no idea how much my home is worth anymore, but it's closer to 60% of their appraised value than any other figure I can muster up, and that's with the help of a real estate agent friend of mine.
I wish we had California's tax system. It's been brought up here and laughed out of the legislation before it ever saw any discussion.
Sadly, we know why. It's the cost of the infrastructure to support the illegal aliens. We've lost most of our hospitals, you can forget about trying to get into an emergency room 24/7 and our car insurance is through the roof. Only 1 driver in 3 has car insurance in Texas and mine just went up almost 50% with no difference in cars or driving record. It's the people like us who pay the difference. I've already had one car totaled a few years ago by an illegal with no license or insurance. The cops said they had to let him go as we are a sanctuary city. Let him go they did, even though he ran a red light and there were multiple witnesses to the accident. My only solace is that I wasn't seriously hurt, though I lost a great deal financially.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Your question is "should I convert silver into paper dollars. My answer....if you need the paper dollars then yes. If you think you're better off with dollars then look at the dollar index charts for this year, falling like a rock.
In California auto insurance is mandatory, unless of course you're an illegal then you just get in an accident, get deported, visit the familty and come back again with a new SS card.
I'm now wondering what will happen with my house insurance. Of course the "nature lovers" will want to rebuild in the forest and get reinsured so someone has to pay everytime they burn down. Spread the costs, thats what insurance is for.
Grandpa's 47 year old home in Ft Worth is taxed at $122,000 while being worth about $60-$70k. Foundation cracked, sinkhole to the sewer in the backyard, plus none of the house is built to code (there weren't any back then).
The tax board just laughed at his protest and he got $0. When he showed the sweet Custom homes nearby were taxed at less per sq ft, they said that was correct because otherwise the rich could not afford the taxes.
<< <i>In California auto insurance is mandatory, unless of course you're an illegal then you just get in an accident, get deported, visit the familty and come back again with a new SS card. >>
Auto insurance is Mandatory in Texas too. The fines are heavy, your license will be suspended and multiple infractions raise the fines into the multi-thousands plus jail time.
This, of course, doesn't apply to illegals and the deadbeats don't seem to care. Here we don't deport the illegals unless they kill someone, if alcohol is involved then only will they be held in jail for trial. But of course the Mexican Consulate comes in and they end up free anyway more times than not.
I guess using the insurance figures as a factor, Texas is filled with 2/3 illegals and deadbeats. My semi-educated guess is that the deadbeats make up only about 10% of the figure.
I have no idea where politicians get that 12 million illegals number. I think there are nearly that many in Texas. The nonsense that they work for minimum wage or very low wages has now been proven wrong through a series of studies. The truth is that they are often taking jobs that American citizens would indeed take. Employers would rather just not have to hassle with things like taxes, so they pay the illegals instead.
Amazingly, we haven't yet figured out what Arizona has done and confiscated cash sums being sent back to Mexico via Western Union. If nothing else, we should tax the dog out of such transactions. Call it a fee or a tax, it's the same thing in the end. I've read that something on the order of 25-30% of all Texas payrolls end up going back to Mexico. No surprise here. We've got 20+ people living in one single family house and two beat up cars in the driveway. I'm betting that neither has insurance either. That's what happens when you have Democrat Mayors pandering for votes, illegal or otherwise, declaring sanctuary cities. Yes, illegals can vote here, we give them driver's licenses and voter registration cards at the same time. Further, no proof of ID is required to vote in this state. That law has been the subject of many discussions in our legislature, but because we have this nonsense 2/3 rds rule to pass anything, enough hispanic and Democrat representatives will not allow it to come up for a vote.
It's gotten so bad, that when people retire here, they often move to another state, not because they want to, but because they will soon be taxed out of their home otherwise. Texas was once a booming economy and paid far more to the FED than we receive in return. When our economy falters, it affects the entire nation. Right now it's teetering on the edge as businesses are leaving the state in droves, so our wise politicians have passed on the cost to the regular citizens. Those who live in sanctuary cities have it the worst. At least this housing slowdown has sent many illegals packing up for other states, only a few are going home.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Grandpa's 47 year old home in Ft Worth is taxed at $122,000 while being worth about $60-$70k. Foundation cracked, sinkhole to the sewer in the backyard, plus none of the house is built to code (there weren't any back then).
The tax board just laughed at his protest and he got $0. When he showed the sweet Custom homes nearby were taxed at less per sq ft, they said that was correct because otherwise the rich could not afford the taxes.
At least they admitted it. >>
That sounds familiar.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Here this is again. Everyone watch out! Now we are getting some names.
By Peter Eavis, Fortune senior writer October 26 2007: 5:12 AM EDT (Fortune) -- Did mutual fund companies fall afoul of a key federal regulation by allowing their money market funds to buy securities issued by the shadowy debt funds that are now struggling?
Money market funds are often the safest investments offered by fund companies, but several large money market funds own securities that were issued by structured investment vehicles (SIVs).
Bank of America money market fund, the $67 billion Columbia Cash Reserves fund, held $640 million of securities issued by Cheyne Finance, a SIV that recently went into liquidation. Cheyne was originally rated AAA by Standard & Poor's and Moody's. Standard & Poor's said it was concerned about the SIVs -- Cheyne Finance LLC, Rhinebridge LLC and Mainsail II LLC.
Other fund company's money market funds have also recently held SIV paper, including funds managed by JP Morgan, Fidelity and Federated, according to company filings.
Money market funds are supposed to the safest fund investments of all. They're not supposed to get involved in liquidations. That sort of event is a nightmare for a money market fund.”
I'm sure we are going to see more and more of these things come to light concerning these paper games, whether concerning mutual funds, money markets, or firms storing physical gold and silver for you (ha!)
Everyone needs to keep vigilance in these times; seems nothing is totally safe anymore.
"Money market funds are supposed to the safest fund investments of all."
It's almost like a carry trade operation, the way they did these money market investments. They pay 2% to the fund purchasers and are trying to get 7%+ on the paper siv's as opposed to the 5% they should be trying to get with solid investments. There are going to be a lot of names that are already in the dirty water when this went kapooi and unless they can or already have let loose of these problem paper exhuberances, they are going to get tagged. That only hurts the small investors, it seems...the people buying these funds trying to eek out a 2% on their investments as a sure thing. Not a sure thing.
You would think that at some point the regular guy type investors would all group up and stand up and scream..."Hey, we been had!" and then head off to the courtrooms or America where the judge will quickly tell them that they signed the paper and if they got had, they got had by by their own hand. So far that hasn't even happened. Similar to the ARM's...those guys that lost their houses have been awfully quiet, as have the people that are not going to get any end of year distributions from their investment vehicles (maybe even lose the vehicle entirely) because of the dirty paper. Maybe some of this will carry over to the ballot box but it's damn shameful when all of these regular guys are getting beat out of their cash and their houses. Certainly, we will hear from that group...won't we? Is this just another example of middle class slippage or are the big fish depleting their food stock, or is this just the way it is now?
I was reflecting on the post I made a couple of pages back talking about Morgan Stanley and failure to deliver metal or money to their clients. The quote from Morgan Stanley's response to the settlement of the law suit in the article that spooks me is: "...no violations of law and no default or failure to perform or deliver precious metals, according to the filing." And...so they have to pay 4.4M to the defrauded investors who were fleeced plain and simple yet, it was no violation of law. Nobody went to jail, they just paid a court settlement and life is good. The Enron guys are serving time for a similar faux so maybe it's just an order of magnitude type of thing...something like maybe 100M before anybody gets a night in the box. Here it is again
It's about gamesmanship and level of play. It's a new world out there, pay attention to your money.
"I was reflecting on the post I made a couple of pages back talking about Morgan Stanley and failure to deliver metal or money to their clients. The quote from Morgan Stanley's response to the settlement of the law suit in the article that spooks me is: "...no violations of law and no default or failure to perform or deliver precious metals, according to the filing." And...so they have to pay 4.4M to the defrauded investors who were fleeced plain and simple yet, it was no violation of law. Nobody went to jail, they just paid a court settlement and life is good. The Enron guys are serving time for a similar faux so maybe it's just an order of magnitude type of thing...something like maybe 100M before anybody gets a night in the box. Here it is again"
mhammerman, it would appear that Morgan Stanley probably believed that after some of the court proceedings, that they would not prevail and would probably lose the case. Thus, the settlement. If they continued with the court proceedings, and ended up losing.... it would be much worse for them. Court mandated compensation would be unknown, perhaps worse; it would give the company an even more black eye; perhaps there would then be criminal allegations; perhaps there are other investment areas that would be more closely looked at for similar manipulations. It would definitely not look good for Morgan Stanley, and also for other firms that are doing similar practices (in fact, perhaps the other firms may be 'helping' Morgan Stanley, to try to keep this more covered up?)
By settling prior to conclusion of the court case, Morgan Stanley can continue to make those statements that "no violations of law and no default or failure". It makes them almost look like 'good guys' by just paying the individuals who are obviously just unhappy, griping, etc., for no reason. And... it keeps further eyes off the company in other areas..... and keeps the big guys out of prison.
It is a small surprise there weren't a few more potential arson wildfires in some of those zipcodes last week. Easy foreclosure avoidance with an insurance payoff of most of the mortgage.
<< <i>Mogambo Guru sounds less crazy all the time. >>
He's never sounded crazy to me. Trouble is, he's long been a lone voice screaming in the wilderness. I'm betting he's one of the few financial gurus who has indeed put the bulk of his funds into gold and silver. Probably lots of silver as it has the longest legs in this commodities run up.
Edit: I notice both silver and gold are climbing again in overseas trading.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Bank Of America to close base, precious metals desks, according to sources - DJ
DJ reports the bank is to close its base and precious metals desks in London and New York as it starts to cull workers amid significant losses in the 3Q, sources close to the situation told DJ. Five employees in London and New York are affected by the move. The London team comprises Tony Shaw in charge of base trading and sales and precious metals trader Mike Corbi. The New York-based team comprises Russell Lynch, Miguel Vias and Jim Maloney in precious metals trading. The metals trading book will be wound down over the next couple of weeks, the sources said. The move has surprised mkt participants as Bank of America's metals trading operations are just one year old and have seen revenues steadily improve each month. Sources said more workers are expected to come under scrutiny as a result of the subprime losses
Not so sure taking out $800 will be that easy without a specific event. Let's see what the FMOC does in particular. If it is a 1/4 point cut or nothing, the metals might turn down some.
"I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal. "
You could probably do something very similar with the metals with a phone call to a dealer who trusts you. And you can buy back the same deal the next day with a phone call. Certainly there would be a handling fee much more than an SLV trade.
"I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal. "
Way to go Joflax >>
ThanksFor the record , I sold out 1/2 my position today and will close out my position tomorrow before the herd starts panicking about the FOMC rate cut . I feel that Silver is more vulnerable to a massive correction than gold or platinum at these levels and that SLV will correct even with a 1/4 point cut , time to go short if they hold rates as they are, and I will need a shoulder to cry on if they cut by a half %.
I feel that Silver is more vulnerable to a massive correction than gold or platinum at these levels and that SLV will correct even with a 1/4 point cut , time to go short if they hold rates as they are, and I will need a shoulder to cry on if they cut by a half %.
I would think that a rate cut would be positive for silver unless the market tanks, taking all else with it - but the rate cut shouldn't precipitate that, either. Granted, the PM rally may be ahead of itself but I do think that we are seeing a flight from paper in the early to middle stages at this point. The big question is when will SLV be considered as paper?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I feel that Silver is more vulnerable to a massive correction than gold or platinum at these levels and that SLV will correct even with a 1/4 point cut , time to go short if they hold rates as they are, and I will need a shoulder to cry on if they cut by a half %.
I would think that a rate cut would be positive for silver unless the market tanks, taking all else with it - but the rate cut shouldn't precipitate that, either. Granted, the PM rally may be ahead of itself but I do think that we are seeing a flight from paper in the early to middle stages at this point. The big question is when will SLV be considered as paper? >>
I think that the beauty of SLV is that it is backed 95% by physical silver and will never be considered as paper (except by the doomsday brigade). A rate cut will be positive for silver but the PM market has got ahead of itself and appears to have discounted a 1/4-1/2%.cut The knee jerk reaction to a 1/4 % cut will be a short term buying opportunity (I hope) with a quick recovery to higher levels.
Helicopter Ben wrote his Masters Thesis about the Great Depression. His contention was that the Fed did not react fast enough to lower rates and stimulate the economy.
Im betting on another half point. The economy is toast without it and might even be with it.
<< <i>I think that the beauty of SLV is that it is backed 95% by physical silver and will never be considered as paper (except by the doomsday brigade). A rate cut will be positive for silver but the PM market has got ahead of itself and appears to have discounted a 1/4-1/2%.cut The knee jerk reaction to a 1/4 % cut will be a short term buying opportunity (I hope) with a quick recovery to higher levels. >>
95%???
I don't believe it. That may have been the initial attempt but it fell short rapidly. I recall reading something a year or so ago that inferred that they simply couldn't physically acquire anywhere near their projected goals. It did drive silver up to over $15 for a while there, I remember that spike well.
I'm thinking it's more like 10%.
It's just another paper scam house of cards. JMO.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Helicopter Ben wrote his Masters Thesis about the Great Depression. His contention was that the Fed did not react fast enough to lower rates and stimulate the economy.
Im betting on another half point. The economy is toast without it and might even be with it. >>
I happen to agree with you 100%. Just heard on the radio that consumer confidence has now fallen to an all time low. Who knows what their sample was, but I thought it quite the coincidence as I was reading the new posts.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I think that the beauty of SLV is that it is backed 95% by physical silver and will never be considered as paper (except by the doomsday brigade). A rate cut will be positive for silver but the PM market has got ahead of itself and appears to have discounted a 1/4-1/2%.cut The knee jerk reaction to a 1/4 % cut will be a short term buying opportunity (I hope) with a quick recovery to higher levels. >>
Will histroy repeat itself? Just remember back in the early 19th centruy banks were issuing local currency and were suspose to have silver to back there paper. Well a long story short they didn't and many went under The old saying "A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush" applies here IMO.
Dollar tanking at 69.26 to the Euro , oil down , gold down , silver down , consumer confidence down , home sales down Whats the fed going to do??? Sacrifice the dollar to save the rest?????
Is some one lying, well who knows, but SLV and GLD are both supposed to be audited Every 30 days, and here is the accounting from this morning, the fund is 99.2 % backed by silver.
Profile as of 10/30/2007 Total Net Assets $2,040,079,150 / Ounces of Silver in Trust 143,977,749.600 Shares Outstanding 14,500,000 / Tonnes of Silver in Trust 4,478.21 Expense Ratio 0.50% / Indicative Basket Silver Amount 496,282.300 Beta (vs. S&P 500) N/A / Basket Silver Amount 496,289.100 NAV per SLV in Silver 992.565%
I am as paranoid as one can get when it comes to trusting the system, but some of Jim Sinclair’s advice about closing all your bank accounts, and brokerage accounts are a little much for me.
You cannot plan for Armageddon, if that happens then the rioters will take all your stuff anyway.
<< <i>Sacrifice the dollar to save the rest????? >>
Who would win and who would lose on a much weaker dollar??
winners those who owe the most...........Uncle Sam and the American consumer........ those who export in dollar goods.........American businesses and American workers
losers those who hold dollar debts............the entire world
I think the dollar drop is not an unfortunate result, I think its part of the plan
It appears that the bigger SLV has gotten, the more controlled silver is. That could suggest it is just a tool for the shorts.
SLV silver is in a "trust." Does that mean they have it or know where they could get it? It's no secret that gold swaps and leases are kept on the books of both parties (double booking). So why not the same shenanigans for silver? No different than the off-balance sheet lack of accounting for derivatives.
no rate cut tomorrow. just my s.w.a.g. but hoping the the FED has some balls to hold ground and let things correct and not support something that has been nutty for a few years.
recession here we come!
and you know what? most of us here have...."been there....done that" with recessions b4...so bring it on.
<< <i>It's just another paper scam house of cards. JMO.
It appears that the bigger SLV has gotten, the more controlled silver is. That could suggest it is just a tool for the shorts.
SLV silver is in a "trust." Does that mean they have it or know where they could get it? It's no secret that gold swaps and leases are kept on the books of both parties (double booking). So why not the same shenanigans for silver? No different than the off-balance sheet lack of accounting for derivatives.
roadrunner >>
This is where games can be played, IMO. Granted.... I have not perused the fine print for SLV. But can the words "in trust" perhaps mean that they have contracted with Morgan Stanley, etc. to 'store' the silver for them??? If so, then I hate to break the news to ya....
I suspect chances are good that some is being 'stored' elsewhere, but shows on the books. Also, probably a sizable amount may be lent out..... again, showing on the books as in trust, but not actually present. After all, how are the principles involved in SLV going to make any money??
There is no substitute for having the gold or silver in hand.
<< <i>no rate cut tomorrow. just my s.w.a.g. but hoping the the FED has some balls to hold ground and let things correct and not support something that has been nutty for a few years.
recession here we come!
and you know what? most of us here have...."been there....done that" with recessions b4...so bring it on.
so put that silver! >>
I agree. If they would need to cut this soon after 50 basis points, then their actions are not going to help pull out of the stall. The psychological damage to the markets would be pretty bad too, confirming (for some) even the the most out-there nutcase theorists. Nothing would surprise me, but I don't think they will be making a move just relating a carefully crafted statement. This is especially true since we have little hope of a significant reaction from a government getting ready to shut down until January. They'll have to be thinking about the consumers too, considering the approaching holiday season and the impact to the retail sector of some rate moves and public statements.
<< <i>Is some one lying, well who knows, but SLV and GLD are both supposed to be audited Every 30 days, and here is the accounting from this morning, the fund is 99.2 % backed by silver.
Profile as of 10/30/2007 Total Net Assets $2,040,079,150 / Ounces of Silver in Trust 143,977,749.600 Shares Outstanding 14,500,000 / Tonnes of Silver in Trust 4,478.21 Expense Ratio 0.50% / Indicative Basket Silver Amount 496,282.300 Beta (vs. S&P 500) N/A / Basket Silver Amount 496,289.100 NAV per SLV in Silver 992.565%
I am as paranoid as one can get when it comes to trusting the system, but some of Jim Sinclair’s advice about closing all your bank accounts, and brokerage accounts are a little much for me.
You cannot plan for Armageddon, if that happens then the rioters will take all your stuff anyway. >>
Yeah but the Doomsdayers claim that the accountants dont actually count every single bar of silver therefore the silver does not exist . I for one find it a very nimble tool to trade in and out of the metals....and when the metals action stabilises I will find something else to trade. The physical metals that I have been accumulating over the last few years are much more difficult to dispose of and that is a big part of their value to me. Appreciating stable assets in an ever changing world
By the way , my call is for rates to stay the same and for the overnight lending rate to banks being cut 1/4 or 1/2 percent , the same as he did last time. This frees up credit for the banks, supports the dollar somewhat , screws us, and tanks the precious metals.... In a few weeks he will surprise the market with a proper rate cut and happy days will be here again.
The first official wave of 78 million boomers start collecting socialist security next year. There is NO MONEY. Hence a combination of tax increases ( "fees" ) will be instituted , more printing and more borrowing from whoever will take a shot.
That means the government will go to whoever has cash.
If you were the Chinese, what interest rate would YOU want?
Based on what I read here, I sold my SLV and GLD today, took the profits, and ran. I can play again some other day. >>
Oh Good , So I can cry on your shoulder if he cuts by 1/2% tomorrow. I am all in cash.
Sure i bought Silver Today so i guess i'm on the other side of the Coin i think he needs to show the Money before the Holiday season and play the games this year next year with the election he won't as much o well let's roll the dice may the best guess win by the way i lose a lot LOL But stay
You know those checks the credit card companies send you in the mail each month that says, “Here is some cash just cash this check” Well I guess a lot of folks have been doing just that.
O.K., with home loans gone that is not to surprising, but guess what the credit card companies are doing with all this credit card debt?
They are packaging it, leveraging it, and putting it in the market as derivatives.
So the next Trillion in defaults will be called what, not sub prime!
"The $915B bomb in consumers' wallets Americans have record credit-card debt and banks are starting to sweat an uptick in default rates. By Peter Gumbel, Fortune October 30 2007: 1:15 PM EDT
(Fortune Magazine) -- This past summer's subprime meltdown involved about $900 billion in now-suspect securitized debt, reckless lending, and consumers who buckled under the weight of loans they couldn't afford. Now another link in the consumer debt chain - credit cards - is starting to show signs of strain. And the fear that the $915 billion in U.S. credit card debt (an uncannily similar figure) may blow up has major financial institutions like Citigroup, American Express, and Bank of America strapping on their Kevlar vests.
In describing the situation to analysts, CFO Gary Crittenden said Citi's credit card holders were beginning to increase the balance on their cards or take cash advances on those cards for the first time.
The doomsday scenario would play out something like this: Just like CDOs and other asset-backed securities, credit card debt is sliced, diced, and sold off again as packages of securities. Rising delinquencies would hurt not only the banks involved but the securities backed by the credit card receivables. Those securities would decline in value as consumers defaulted, leading to bank losses as well as portfolio losses in the hedge funds, institutions, and pensions that own the securities.”
Oh, I am out of the paper PM market at this time also, sold yesterday. I think it will be ¼ point, but think that is priced in. A good time to sit and watch!
Comments
<< <i>Question for the precious metals experts.
Siver was $6.85 in May of 05, so it has more than doubled.
Will it double again in 2 years? Or have we reached the climax for silver, for a while?
Wish I could tavel forward in time, it would make it so easy to decide to sell the farm. Could it be $25 an ounce in a few years?
So far I've accumulated over 1000 ounces over the past 6 years, should I sell some? >>
There's no way to know.
It's fairly safe to predict that at some point in the future silver
will be far higher than it is today. This day probably can't be
more than twenty years out unless there's a long depression
in the interim. It's not a certainty since silver could start com-
ing off the ocean floor but it's a safe bet. It could be a major
loss if one of these other events occur.
One other point; There is virtually no resistance in silver above
$14 per ounce. Once it clearly is above this level there will be
almost no individuals who sell because it has attained some
specific level. There will be a slight resistance at $24 and even
slighter around $38 but both of these could be taken out with
no more than a momentary pause. Of course the price still has
to have fundamentals pushing it higher even after it gets through
fourteen dollars.
<< <i>
<< <i>Wow...just wow. Real estate is probably the absolute worst place to put money right now, and will continue to be a poor investment for at least 3 more years. >>
It certainly is in Texas right now. Prices are dropping 30-40% in some areas and property taxes are rising 10% annually. Many people are losing their homes to taxes and it's not uncommon for your taxes to be more than your mortgage.
I'd gladly sell my home to the county right now for 80% of their appraised value for taxation. I doubt I could sell it for for much more than 60%, if that. I've seen homes in my neighborhood valued at close to $450K for tax purposes end up selling for around $240K. Seen it happen twice in just the last 3 months. Those two were probably ARMs, but I don't know. I do know it's got everyone walking on eggs. All of this crash in home values has happened in just the last 9 months or so. >>
doesn't the Republic of Texas have "prop 13" limit on property taxes, similar to the Republic of California??
that base is the cost of replacement construction at reasonable labor rates
so, here in the Northeast, if you were fortunate enough to buy that 3000 sq foot beauty 8-10 years ago at about 250K
that same home could never be rebuilt for less than 400K including the land
there is your floor,
unfortunately the values swelled to 650K for the same house, but now have decreased to 525K, if you can find a buyer.
where the assessment is off 10% or more and can be supported by comp's, you can take your "township" to court to get the assessments lowered.
it only works when there are limited appeals, otherwise, the townships just raise the rates and you are back at the same tax number anyway.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Wow...just wow. Real estate is probably the absolute worst place to put money right now, and will continue to be a poor investment for at least 3 more years. >>
It certainly is in Texas right now. Prices are dropping 30-40% in some areas and property taxes are rising 10% annually. Many people are losing their homes to taxes and it's not uncommon for your taxes to be more than your mortgage.
I'd gladly sell my home to the county right now for 80% of their appraised value for taxation. I doubt I could sell it for for much more than 60%, if that. I've seen homes in my neighborhood valued at close to $450K for tax purposes end up selling for around $240K. Seen it happen twice in just the last 3 months. Those two were probably ARMs, but I don't know. I do know it's got everyone walking on eggs. All of this crash in home values has happened in just the last 9 months or so. >>
doesn't the Republic of Texas have "prop 13" limit on property taxes, similar to the Republic of California?? >>
Nope, not even close. It can raise 10% per year and even more if they let you slip below that 10% anytime in the last 5 years. They can make up the difference. That's what has happened to me. I beat the pants off them two years ago using comparables and recent sales, this year mine went up 39%. Little payback there, I'd suppose. I did fight them, went through three hearings, hired a good legal firm and I got back less than 1/3 of 1%.
Yeah, I can pay it, but I'm not happy about it considering that the value of my home is now considerably less than they are appraising it at.
At 10% per year, values will double in 7 years. Mine are now up 50% in the last 3 and I have no idea how much my home is worth anymore, but it's closer to 60% of their appraised value than any other figure I can muster up, and that's with the help of a real estate agent friend of mine.
I wish we had California's tax system. It's been brought up here and laughed out of the legislation before it ever saw any discussion.
Sadly, we know why. It's the cost of the infrastructure to support the illegal aliens. We've lost most of our hospitals, you can forget about trying to get into an emergency room 24/7 and our car insurance is through the roof. Only 1 driver in 3 has car insurance in Texas and mine just went up almost 50% with no difference in cars or driving record. It's the people like us who pay the difference. I've already had one car totaled a few years ago by an illegal with no license or insurance. The cops said they had to let him go as we are a sanctuary city. Let him go they did, even though he ran a red light and there were multiple witnesses to the accident. My only solace is that I wasn't seriously hurt, though I lost a great deal financially.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>should I sell some >>
Your question is "should I convert silver into paper dollars. My answer....if you need the paper dollars then yes. If you think you're better off with dollars then look at the dollar index charts for this year, falling like a rock.
In California auto insurance is mandatory, unless of course you're an illegal then you just get in an accident, get deported, visit the familty and come back again with a new SS card.
I'm now wondering what will happen with my house insurance. Of course the "nature lovers" will want to rebuild in the forest and get reinsured so someone has to pay everytime they burn down. Spread the costs, thats what insurance is for.
Morgage defaults all time high in CA.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDBaFwGV784g&refer=home
http://www.markit.com/information/products/abx/history_graphs.html
Grandpa's 47 year old home in Ft Worth is taxed at $122,000 while being worth about $60-$70k. Foundation cracked, sinkhole to the sewer in the backyard, plus none of the house is built to code (there weren't any back then).
The tax board just laughed at his protest and he got $0. When he showed the sweet Custom homes nearby were taxed at less per sq ft, they said that was correct because otherwise the rich could not afford the taxes.
At least they admitted it.
<< <i>In California auto insurance is mandatory, unless of course you're an illegal then you just get in an accident, get deported, visit the familty and come back again with a new SS card. >>
Auto insurance is Mandatory in Texas too. The fines are heavy, your license will be suspended and multiple infractions raise the fines into the multi-thousands plus jail time.
This, of course, doesn't apply to illegals and the deadbeats don't seem to care. Here we don't deport the illegals unless they kill someone, if alcohol is involved then only will they be held in jail for trial. But of course the Mexican Consulate comes in and they end up free anyway more times than not.
I guess using the insurance figures as a factor, Texas is filled with 2/3 illegals and deadbeats. My semi-educated guess is that the deadbeats make up only about 10% of the figure.
I have no idea where politicians get that 12 million illegals number. I think there are nearly that many in Texas. The nonsense that they work for minimum wage or very low wages has now been proven wrong through a series of studies. The truth is that they are often taking jobs that American citizens would indeed take. Employers would rather just not have to hassle with things like taxes, so they pay the illegals instead.
Amazingly, we haven't yet figured out what Arizona has done and confiscated cash sums being sent back to Mexico via Western Union. If nothing else, we should tax the dog out of such transactions. Call it a fee or a tax, it's the same thing in the end. I've read that something on the order of 25-30% of all Texas payrolls end up going back to Mexico. No surprise here. We've got 20+ people living in one single family house and two beat up cars in the driveway. I'm betting that neither has insurance either. That's what happens when you have Democrat Mayors pandering for votes, illegal or otherwise, declaring sanctuary cities. Yes, illegals can vote here, we give them driver's licenses and voter registration cards at the same time. Further, no proof of ID is required to vote in this state. That law has been the subject of many discussions in our legislature, but because we have this nonsense 2/3 rds rule to pass anything, enough hispanic and Democrat representatives will not allow it to come up for a vote.
It's gotten so bad, that when people retire here, they often move to another state, not because they want to, but because they will soon be taxed out of their home otherwise. Texas was once a booming economy and paid far more to the FED than we receive in return. When our economy falters, it affects the entire nation. Right now it's teetering on the edge as businesses are leaving the state in droves, so our wise politicians have passed on the cost to the regular citizens. Those who live in sanctuary cities have it the worst. At least this housing slowdown has sent many illegals packing up for other states, only a few are going home.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Grandpa's 47 year old home in Ft Worth is taxed at $122,000 while being worth about $60-$70k. Foundation cracked, sinkhole to the sewer in the backyard, plus none of the house is built to code (there weren't any back then).
The tax board just laughed at his protest and he got $0. When he showed the sweet Custom homes nearby were taxed at less per sq ft, they said that was correct because otherwise the rich could not afford the taxes.
At least they admitted it. >>
That sounds familiar.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Here this is again. Everyone watch out!
Now we are getting some names.
By Peter Eavis, Fortune senior writer
October 26 2007: 5:12 AM EDT
(Fortune) -- Did mutual fund companies fall afoul of a key federal regulation by allowing their money market funds to buy securities issued by the shadowy debt funds that are now struggling?
Money market funds are often the safest investments offered by fund companies, but several large money market funds own securities that were issued by structured investment vehicles (SIVs).
Bank of America money market fund, the $67 billion Columbia Cash Reserves fund, held $640 million of securities issued by Cheyne Finance, a SIV that recently went into liquidation. Cheyne was originally rated AAA by Standard & Poor's and Moody's. Standard & Poor's said it was concerned about the SIVs -- Cheyne Finance LLC, Rhinebridge LLC and Mainsail II LLC.
Other fund company's money market funds have also recently held SIV paper, including funds managed by JP Morgan, Fidelity and Federated, according to company filings.
Money market funds are supposed to the safest fund investments of all. They're not supposed to get involved in liquidations. That sort of event is a nightmare for a money market fund.”
Everyone needs to keep vigilance in these times; seems nothing is totally safe anymore.
It's almost like a carry trade operation, the way they did these money market investments. They pay 2% to the fund purchasers and are trying to get 7%+ on the paper siv's as opposed to the 5% they should be trying to get with solid investments. There are going to be a lot of names that are already in the dirty water when this went kapooi and unless they can or already have let loose of these problem paper exhuberances, they are going to get tagged. That only hurts the small investors, it seems...the people buying these funds trying to eek out a 2% on their investments as a sure thing. Not a sure thing.
You would think that at some point the regular guy type investors would all group up and stand up and scream..."Hey, we been had!" and then head off to the courtrooms or America where the judge will quickly tell them that they signed the paper and if they got had, they got had by by their own hand. So far that hasn't even happened. Similar to the ARM's...those guys that lost their houses have been awfully quiet, as have the people that are not going to get any end of year distributions from their investment vehicles (maybe even lose the vehicle entirely) because of the dirty paper. Maybe some of this will carry over to the ballot box but it's damn shameful when all of these regular guys are getting beat out of their cash and their houses. Certainly, we will hear from that group...won't we? Is this just another example of middle class slippage or are the big fish depleting their food stock, or is this just the way it is now?
I was reflecting on the post I made a couple of pages back talking about Morgan Stanley and failure to deliver metal or money to their clients. The quote from Morgan Stanley's response to the settlement of the law suit in the article that spooks me is: "...no violations of law and no default or failure to perform or deliver precious metals, according to the filing." And...so they have to pay 4.4M to the defrauded investors who were fleeced plain and simple yet, it was no violation of law. Nobody went to jail, they just paid a court settlement and life is good. The Enron guys are serving time for a similar faux so maybe it's just an order of magnitude type of thing...something like maybe 100M before anybody gets a night in the box.
Here it is again
It's about gamesmanship and level of play. It's a new world out there, pay attention to your money.
Here it is again"
mhammerman, it would appear that Morgan Stanley probably believed that after some of the court proceedings, that they would not prevail and would probably lose the case. Thus, the settlement. If they continued with the court proceedings, and ended up losing.... it would be much worse for them. Court mandated compensation would be unknown, perhaps worse; it would give the company an even more black eye; perhaps there would then be criminal allegations; perhaps there are other investment areas that would be more closely looked at for similar manipulations. It would definitely not look good for Morgan Stanley, and also for other firms that are doing similar practices (in fact, perhaps the other firms may be 'helping' Morgan Stanley, to try to keep this more covered up?)
By settling prior to conclusion of the court case, Morgan Stanley can continue to make those statements that "no violations of law and no default or failure". It makes them almost look like 'good guys' by just paying the individuals who are obviously just unhappy, griping, etc., for no reason. And... it keeps further eyes off the company in other areas..... and keeps the big guys out of prison.
<< <i>And the beat goes on..........The Calf morgage mess
Morgage defaults all time high in CA. >>
It is a small surprise there weren't a few more potential arson wildfires in some of those zipcodes last week. Easy foreclosure avoidance with an insurance payoff of most of the mortgage.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Mogambo Guru sounds less crazy all the time. >>
He's never sounded crazy to me. Trouble is, he's long been a lone voice screaming in the wilderness. I'm betting he's one of the few financial gurus who has indeed put the bulk of his funds into gold and silver. Probably lots of silver as it has the longest legs in this commodities run up.
Edit: I notice both silver and gold are climbing again in overseas trading.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Bank Of America to close base, precious metals desks, according to sources - DJ
DJ reports the bank is to close its base and precious metals desks in London and New York as it starts to cull workers amid significant losses in the 3Q, sources close to the situation told DJ. Five employees in London and New York are affected by the move. The London team comprises Tony Shaw in charge of base trading and sales and precious metals trader Mike Corbi. The New York-based team comprises Russell Lynch, Miguel Vias and Jim Maloney in precious metals trading. The metals trading book will be wound down over the next couple of weeks, the sources said. The move has surprised mkt participants as Bank of America's metals trading operations are just one year old and have seen revenues steadily improve each month. Sources said more workers are expected to come under scrutiny as a result of the subprime losses
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Silver has also been quite interesting.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Sign of the times?
"I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal. "
Way to go Joflax
you can buy back the same deal the next day with a phone call. Certainly there would be a handling fee much more
than an SLV trade.
roadrunner
<< <i>Sad indeed:
Sign of the times? >>
Psycho
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>oct. 20th 2007
"I liquidated my entire holding in SLV on thursday....it took less than 30 seconds. I bought the entire position back on Friday , and it took less than a minute. You cannot do that with physical metal. "
Way to go Joflax >>
Thanks
I feel that Silver is more vulnerable to a massive correction than gold or platinum at these levels and that SLV will correct even with a 1/4 point cut , time to go short if they hold rates as they are, and I will need a shoulder to cry on if they cut by a half %.
Work......Home life...Financial security.
It takes at least 2 out of the 3 to be a
stable person. Apparently the individual
was divorced, no job and losing his home.
O for 3. A very tough situation for someone
who needed some serious professional help.
Camelot
I would think that a rate cut would be positive for silver unless the market tanks, taking all else with it - but the rate cut shouldn't precipitate that, either. Granted, the PM rally may be ahead of itself but I do think that we are seeing a flight from paper in the early to middle stages at this point. The big question is when will SLV be considered as paper?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I feel that Silver is more vulnerable to a massive correction than gold or platinum at these levels and that SLV will correct even with a 1/4 point cut , time to go short if they hold rates as they are, and I will need a shoulder to cry on if they cut by a half %.
I would think that a rate cut would be positive for silver unless the market tanks, taking all else with it - but the rate cut shouldn't precipitate that, either. Granted, the PM rally may be ahead of itself but I do think that we are seeing a flight from paper in the early to middle stages at this point. The big question is when will SLV be considered as paper? >>
I think that the beauty of SLV is that it is backed 95% by physical silver and will never be considered as paper (except by the doomsday brigade). A rate cut will be positive for silver but the PM market has got ahead of itself and appears to have discounted a 1/4-1/2%.cut The knee jerk reaction to a 1/4 % cut will be a short term buying opportunity (I hope) with a quick recovery to higher levels.
Im betting on another half point. The economy is toast without it and might even be with it.
<< <i>I think that the beauty of SLV is that it is backed 95% by physical silver and will never be considered as paper (except by the doomsday brigade). A rate cut will be positive for silver but the PM market has got ahead of itself and appears to have discounted a 1/4-1/2%.cut The knee jerk reaction to a 1/4 % cut will be a short term buying opportunity (I hope) with a quick recovery to higher levels. >>
95%???
I don't believe it. That may have been the initial attempt but it fell short rapidly. I recall reading something a year or so ago that inferred that they simply couldn't physically acquire anywhere near their projected goals. It did drive silver up to over $15 for a while there, I remember that spike well.
I'm thinking it's more like 10%.
It's just another paper scam house of cards. JMO.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Helicopter Ben wrote his Masters Thesis about the Great Depression. His contention was that the Fed did not react fast enough to lower rates and stimulate the economy.
Im betting on another half point. The economy is toast without it and might even be with it. >>
I happen to agree with you 100%. Just heard on the radio that consumer confidence has now fallen to an all time low. Who knows what their sample was, but I thought it quite the coincidence as I was reading the new posts.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I think that the beauty of SLV is that it is backed 95% by physical silver and will never be considered as paper (except by the doomsday brigade). A rate cut will be positive for silver but the PM market has got ahead of itself and appears to have discounted a 1/4-1/2%.cut The knee jerk reaction to a 1/4 % cut will be a short term buying opportunity (I hope) with a quick recovery to higher levels. >>
Here's a timely read from Butler:
Ted Butler
Will histroy repeat itself? Just remember back in the early 19th centruy banks were issuing local currency and were suspose to have silver to back there paper. Well a long story short they didn't and many went under
Whats the fed going to do???
Sacrifice the dollar to save the rest?????
Every 30 days, and here is the accounting from this morning, the fund is 99.2 % backed by silver.
Profile as of 10/30/2007
Total Net Assets $2,040,079,150 / Ounces of Silver in Trust 143,977,749.600
Shares Outstanding 14,500,000 / Tonnes of Silver in Trust 4,478.21
Expense Ratio 0.50% / Indicative Basket Silver Amount 496,282.300
Beta (vs. S&P 500) N/A / Basket Silver Amount 496,289.100
NAV per SLV in Silver 992.565%
I am as paranoid as one can get when it comes to trusting the system, but some of Jim Sinclair’s advice about closing all your bank accounts, and brokerage accounts are a little much for me.
You cannot plan for Armageddon, if that happens then the rioters will take all your stuff anyway.
<< <i>Sacrifice the dollar to save the rest????? >>
Who would win and who would lose on a much weaker dollar??
winners
those who owe the most...........Uncle Sam and the American consumer........
those who export in dollar goods.........American businesses and American workers
losers
those who hold dollar debts............the entire world
I think the dollar drop is not an unfortunate result, I think its part of the plan
It appears that the bigger SLV has gotten, the more controlled silver is. That could suggest it is just a tool for the
shorts.
SLV silver is in a "trust." Does that mean they have it or know where they could get it? It's no secret that gold
swaps and leases are kept on the books of both parties (double booking). So why not the same shenanigans for silver?
No different than the off-balance sheet lack of accounting for derivatives.
roadrunner
recession here we come!
and you know what? most of us here have...."been there....done that" with recessions b4...so bring it on.
so put that silver!
<< <i>It's just another paper scam house of cards. JMO.
It appears that the bigger SLV has gotten, the more controlled silver is. That could suggest it is just a tool for the
shorts.
SLV silver is in a "trust." Does that mean they have it or know where they could get it? It's no secret that gold
swaps and leases are kept on the books of both parties (double booking). So why not the same shenanigans for silver?
No different than the off-balance sheet lack of accounting for derivatives.
roadrunner >>
This is where games can be played, IMO. Granted.... I have not perused the fine print for SLV. But can the words "in trust" perhaps mean that they have contracted with Morgan Stanley, etc. to 'store' the silver for them??? If so, then I hate to break the news to ya....
I suspect chances are good that some is being 'stored' elsewhere, but shows on the books. Also, probably a sizable amount may be lent out..... again, showing on the books as in trust, but not actually present. After all, how are the principles involved in SLV going to make any money??
There is no substitute for having the gold or silver in hand.
<< <i>no rate cut tomorrow. just my s.w.a.g. but hoping the the FED has some balls to hold ground and let things correct and not support something that has been nutty for a few years.
recession here we come!
and you know what? most of us here have...."been there....done that" with recessions b4...so bring it on.
so put that silver! >>
I agree. If they would need to cut this soon after 50 basis points, then their actions are not going to help pull out of the stall. The psychological damage to the markets would be pretty bad too, confirming (for some) even the the most out-there nutcase theorists. Nothing would surprise me, but I don't think they will be making a move just relating a carefully crafted statement. This is especially true since we have little hope of a significant reaction from a government getting ready to shut down until January. They'll have to be thinking about the consumers too, considering the approaching holiday season and the impact to the retail sector of some rate moves and public statements.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Should I wait until tomorrow to buy more silver?
<< <i>Is some one lying, well who knows, but SLV and GLD are both supposed to be audited
Every 30 days, and here is the accounting from this morning, the fund is 99.2 % backed by silver.
Profile as of 10/30/2007
Total Net Assets $2,040,079,150 / Ounces of Silver in Trust 143,977,749.600
Shares Outstanding 14,500,000 / Tonnes of Silver in Trust 4,478.21
Expense Ratio 0.50% / Indicative Basket Silver Amount 496,282.300
Beta (vs. S&P 500) N/A / Basket Silver Amount 496,289.100
NAV per SLV in Silver 992.565%
I am as paranoid as one can get when it comes to trusting the system, but some of Jim Sinclair’s advice about closing all your bank accounts, and brokerage accounts are a little much for me.
You cannot plan for Armageddon, if that happens then the rioters will take all your stuff anyway. >>
Yeah but the Doomsdayers claim that the accountants dont actually count every single bar of silver therefore the silver does not exist . I for one find it a very nimble tool to trade in and out of the metals....and when the metals action stabilises I will find something else to trade. The physical metals that I have been accumulating over the last few years are much more difficult to dispose of and that is a big part of their value to me. Appreciating stable assets in an ever changing world
Camelot
That means the government will go to whoever has cash.
If you were the Chinese, what interest rate would YOU want?
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Based on what I read here, I sold my SLV and GLD today, took the profits, and ran. I can play again some other day. >>
Oh Good , So I can cry on your shoulder if he cuts by 1/2% tomorrow. I am all in cash.
Oh Good , So I can cry on your shoulder if he cuts by 1/2% tomorrow. I am all in cash.
Sure i bought Silver Today so i guess i'm on the other side of the Coin
i think he needs to show the Money before the Holiday season
and play the games this year next year with the election he won't as much
o well let's roll the dice
may the best guess win by the way i lose a lot LOL
But stay
NEXT!
You know those checks the credit card companies send you in the mail each month that says, “Here is some cash just cash this check” Well I guess a lot of folks have been doing just that.
O.K., with home loans gone that is not to surprising, but guess what the credit card companies are doing with all this credit card debt?
They are packaging it, leveraging it, and putting it in the market as derivatives.
So the next Trillion in defaults will be called what, not sub prime!
"The $915B bomb in consumers' wallets
Americans have record credit-card debt and banks are starting to sweat an uptick in default rates.
By Peter Gumbel, Fortune
October 30 2007: 1:15 PM EDT
(Fortune Magazine) -- This past summer's subprime meltdown involved about $900 billion in now-suspect securitized debt, reckless lending, and consumers who buckled under the weight of loans they couldn't afford. Now another link in the consumer debt chain - credit cards - is starting to show signs of strain. And the fear that the $915 billion in U.S. credit card debt (an uncannily similar figure) may blow up has major financial institutions like Citigroup, American Express, and Bank of America strapping on their Kevlar vests.
In describing the situation to analysts, CFO Gary Crittenden said Citi's credit card holders were beginning to increase the balance on their cards or take cash advances on those cards for the first time.
The doomsday scenario would play out something like this: Just like CDOs and other asset-backed securities, credit card debt is sliced, diced, and sold off again as packages of securities. Rising delinquencies would hurt not only the banks involved but the securities backed by the credit card receivables. Those securities would decline in value as consumers defaulted, leading to bank losses as well as portfolio losses in the hedge funds, institutions, and pensions that own the securities.”
Oh, I am out of the paper PM market at this time also, sold yesterday. I think it will be ¼ point, but think that is priced in. A good time to sit and watch!