You can guess gold will go up, but in fact it will go down.. you can wait 5 years to make 30% if you choose, but hey more power to the flower. Right on....
I fully expect gold to at least double or triple from here and the dollar to fall another 30%. Silver should go up 5X to 10X from here. My calculations show far more than 30% in 5 yrs. We couldn't disagree more about the short or long term trends in gold. Let me guess, you've been shorting gold all along from $260, $300, $400, $500, $600, $700, $800, $900, etc? Whether you end up with yen or dollars is irrelevant as you still only have a fuel source with approx an 8000 BTU/lbm value.
Let's start with the shorter term goal: gold will exceed it's $1033 high later this year. Then in 2009 we will see at least $1200. Gold has been returning 20-25% per year on average. That trend will only accelerate as the curve steepens.
<< <i>You can guess gold will go up, but in fact it will go down.. you can wait 5 years to make 30% if you choose, but hey more power to the flower. Right on....
I fully expect gold to at least double or triple from here and the dollar to fall another 30%. Silver should go up 5X to 10X from here. My calculations show far more than 30% in 5 yrs. We couldn't disagree more about the short or long term trends in gold. Let me guess, you've been shorting gold all along from $260, $300, $400, $500, $600, $700, $800, $900, etc? Whether you end up with yen or dollars is irrelevant as you still only have a fuel source with approx an 8000 BTU/lbm value.
Let's start with the shorter term goal: gold will exceed it's $1033 high later this year. Then in 2009 we will see at least $1200. Gold has been returning 20-25% per year on average. That trend will only accelerate as the curve steepens.
roadrunner >>
roadrunner, my gut is telling me you have to stop reading all those gold bug emails and websites. yes, gold will trend upwards but to double and triple from this point on? i just cannot see it happening in the next 5 years.
5 years ago yes, i was on the same boat you were that gold would go up. no brainer. now days i am not seeing it. sure we will have another mini spike past 1000 and stabilize around there... but i just have to disagree with the double and triple talk.
is not these letters written by the people who own gold mines and otherwise have a financial interest is spamming the world with their propaganda? they have made a career out of it!!!
This thread has chewed up a slew of anti-gold pundits over the past 4 yrs. I expect a similar quantity over the next several years as well. Larry Krudlowe is the guru of the anti-gold and hasn't been right yet on the metals. But as long as he's right on the metals once in 10-15 yrs that will satisfy his crowd. Commodities were kept out of sight for 20 years. It will take a lot more than $1000 gold and a 7 yr run to make up for the mess that has been created in that 20 yrs. There are still 600 TRILLION reasons sitting out there to support that supposition. There's many more reasons for metals to continue on from here than there ever were in the mid to late 1970's. $1200 is in the bag and I wouldn't be surprised if we see it this year, though 2009 is a tad more conservative. With monetary inflation world wide running in the 10-50% range per nation with no sign of it stopping, gold can't do anything but continue to rise.
When one single financial stat is improving I will start to soften my stance. But until that day occurs then the trend continues. There is nothing magic about $1000 gold other than in 1980 dollars it's about $400 today. Gold miners aren't driving the market at this time considering their costs are running around $700/oz average due to inflation and political agendas.
sure that guy you are speaking of is anti-gold and wrong often... but so were the pro-gold characters for almost two decades while gold languished.
only in the last 5-7 years have they even been close to being right.
was it not just a few months ago they were spouting things like this is "it!". A perfect storm! Hold onto your hats!
hm. commodities were due for an increase due to obvious factors like india/china and the drop in the dollar.
what is this perfect storm you are waiting for this time?
This thread has chewed up a slew of anti-gold pundits over the past 4 yrs. I expect a similar quantity over the next several years as well.
I have no idea why people over the last 4 years did not see the rise in gold coming that made sense on so many levels.
but what you are predicting is such a long shot that i think you want to see happen that you will convince yourself no matter what. the material you are reading is not helping you make a rational decision in my mind. it is propaganda written by the players in gold from what i have read. actual CEOs of companies that are part of the gold industry that have nothing better to do then write articles every day. whats his nut.. i cant think of his name but you know what i speak of.
i am not trying to convince you otherwise... but you cannot take past performance and use that as proof for current and future performance. you just do not do that in my mind.
as for the mess this country is in... the US will simply have to learn the hard way. we have been in trouble before and came out of it better then ever. stop being so pessimistic. get of my lawn comes to mind. things were better in my day sorta thinking.
<< <i>You can guess gold will go up, but in fact it will go down.. you can wait 5 years to make 30% if you choose, but hey more power to the flower. Right on....
I fully expect gold to at least double or triple from here and the dollar to fall another 30%. Silver should go up 5X to 10X from here. My calculations show far more than 30% in 5 yrs. We couldn't disagree more about the short or long term trends in gold. Let me guess, you've been shorting gold all along from $260, $300, $400, $500, $600, $700, $800, $900, etc? Whether you end up with yen or dollars is irrelevant as you still only have a fuel source with approx an 8000 BTU/lbm value.
Let's start with the shorter term goal: gold will exceed it's $1033 high later this year. Then in 2009 we will see at least $1200. Gold has been returning 20-25% per year on average. That trend will only accelerate as the curve steepens.
roadrunner >>
not with all that gold around? I couldn't agree more?
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
The yen has the most to loose, according to the fed, but in 2005 we already new that the yen would restrengthen, and we new China was also not going to give in to value there currency.
Gold isn't the answer to today.. maybe its all the NASA patents that could be used today, and not tomorrow.. Or any number of choices. My choices are never the same as yours.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
Slowly down the tubes, who is financing this anyway?
Lets see the Federal government has a half a trillion short fall each year, and the Federal reserve just bought half a trillion worth or bad paper from the banks, so do you think they are printing the money?
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The trade deficit jumped to the highest level in 13 months in April as America's bill for foreign crude oil soared to an all-time high.
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the gap between what the nation imports and what it sells abroad rose by 7.8 percent to $60.9 billion, the largest imbalance since March 2007. The April deficit was $4.4 billion higher than the March imbalance of $56.5 billion.
U.S. export sales totaled $155.5 billion in April, up 3.3 percent to an all-time high, reflecting big gains in sales of commercial aircraft, farm machinery, medical equipment and computers. But this increase was swamped by a 4.5 percent rise in imports, which also set a record at $216.4 billion, reflecting the huge increase in oil as well as big gains in imports of autos and consumer goods.
The deficit through the first four months of this year is running at an annual rate of $707.5 billion.”
I just don't see gold as a speculative instrument, in the traditional way, where you try to get 8%/yr on your investments. I see gold as the store of value i.e. gasoline goes to $5 and gold rises $20...best you are going to get out of gold is a stabilization of your assets, an anchor for your wherewithall. It is nice if gold moves around a little, we can get in when we have a few extra buks or let a little go back into the great continuum when we want to take a little profit. The insane thing about gold is people wait to buy it when it is hot instead of when it is quiet and sleepy.
It is easy to say "Hey, gold is sky rocketing and worth $1200/oz now so I can buy a couple ounces at $1400 and still be in good shape and maybe it will even rise from here." Bad play. The better play is "Hey, I have an extra $800 and gold is sleepy and quiet so I'm going to get a nice eagle and stick it in the drawer and keep the change in a rainy day envelope." That's the strategy I've been using for the last few years and I've amassed a fair number of ozs like that (barely halfway to a 100/my goal), without stretching or converting assets, it just takes patience. It also takes not pissin' your money away of trendy, feel good merchandise. It's like my wife told me..."You can't have everything, you have to set priorities." So, would you rather have an Iphone or an eagle?
I would love to see gold go to $1500 but I know that if it does, gas will be $6 or $8, concrete will be $15/sf for flat work, food will be a multiple of where it is now or some such calamity. Look at gold like a savings account that no one knows you have...cash in and cash out. Gold is the great equalizer.
Most of those regular participants here are plenty financially astute and wise to the world of investing so my post is kind of "yeah, so?" for you guys but for the guy that wants to get a leg up on the world, steady PM accumulation without stretching will serve most of us quite well. No need to speculate.
just like oil, when prices rise, more of it comes out the ground due to making it feasible to go after it...
when gold becomes too expensive manufacturers stop using it and find substitutes.
Gold is much harder to create than are electronic credit or electronic cash. So, that's what governments are doing - creating electronic money and credit, much, much, much faster than gold is being mined.
Oil is ultimately even scarcer, but not nearly as convenient as gold to use as a store of wealth. And, oil is a consummable.
World population continues to rise, and all commodities are becoming less available, as food riots have already taken place.
It's a relative sort of thing. Even more importantly, it's a trust issue. Now, my childhood was fine as far as I can tell, but my fiancee' might tell you that I have "trust issues" when it comes to the banks and the government. Why would that be?
Is that experience talking, or just a psychological disorder concerning distrust of financial institutions from some long-forgotten episode with a piggy bank?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Really some of you guys need to get out more. Just because you have a good job and can pay higher prices that's a small percentage of us that isn't overloaded with debt and falling assests. And those with good jobs are just a layoff away from seeing a different picture. The old jobs pay more than anything you can find in most fields in the US today.
Really some of you guys need to get out more. Just because you have a good job and can pay higher prices that's a small percentage of us that isn't overloaded with debt and falling assests. And those with good jobs are just a layoff away from seeing a different picture. The old jobs pay more than anything you can find in most fields in the US today.
"There, but for the Grace of God, go I."
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Let's not let the facts get in the way. Why not post something that paints a rosy picture instead of your gut feelings. >>
Ok. Lets look at the article closer.
"Auto sales, the largest retailing sector in the U.S., were off 10.7 percent in May from the year before. And housing? Ugh. Nationwide, according to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices in the first quarter fell 14 percent."
These are the two darn sectors everyone knows has a problem for the last years! Stupid GM and FORD with their overpriced, under performing, gas guzzling vehicles. They simply cannot compete with Honda and Toyota right now. Heck, I just bought a 45 MPG Toyota Prius last week and Toyota cannot keep up with demand for their 4 cylinder vehicles. It is like printing money for them. While silly GM and FORD truck/suv owners trade in their vehicles for huge losses to get a better car for the times. That is why they suck. End of story. Mismanagement. Of course jobs will be lost when you close 5 truck/SUV factories every 3 months.
Everyone knows why housing is in the crapper. Speculation and overpaying. Not people living in their one home but the gamblers who failed to pay up every month. Such a small sliver of the actual home owners are defaulting. The huge majority pay month after month.
ugh. the rest of the article is regurgitating the same old stuff from 6 months ago. High oil and commodities. This turn around time for the economy might be a, get this, a whole year! Not the expect 6 months. Growth will be 1%! Wake me up when we start to shrink 1% of 4 quarters in a row. banks are doing poorly... no crap, when you give out loans to people who did not deserve them and were to dumb to get a fixed rate after the ARM ran out.
anyway. i agree with ziggy. speculation, sensationalism, and etc.. everything the media needs to get ad revenue.
Let's not let the facts get in the way. Why not post something that paints a rosy picture instead of your gut feelings. >>
Ok. Lets look at the article closer.
"Auto sales, the largest retailing sector in the U.S., were off 10.7 percent in May from the year before. And housing? Ugh. Nationwide, according to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices in the first quarter fell 14 percent."
These are the two darn sectors everyone knows has a problem for the last years! Stupid GM and FORD with their overpriced, under performing, gas guzzling vehicles. They simply cannot compete with Honda and Toyota right now. Heck, I just bought a 45 MPG Toyota Prius last week and Toyota cannot keep up with demand for their 4 cylinder vehicles. It is like printing money for them. While silly GM and FORD truck/suv owners trade in their vehicles for huge losses to get a better car for the times. That is why they suck. End of story. Mismanagement. Of course jobs will be lost when you close 5 truck/SUV factories every 3 months.
Everyone knows why housing is in the crapper. Speculation and overpaying. Not people living in their one home but the gamblers who failed to pay up every month. Such a small sliver of the actual home owners are defaulting. The huge majority pay month after month.
ugh. the rest of the article is regurgitating the same old stuff from 6 months ago. High oil and commodities. This turn around time for the economy might be a, get this, a whole year! Not the expect 6 months. Growth will be 1%! Wake me up when we start to shrink 1% of 4 quarters in a row. banks are doing poorly... no crap, when you give out loans to people who did not deserve them and were to dumb to get a fixed rate after the ARM ran out.
anyway. i agree with ziggy. speculation, sensationalism, and etc.. everything the media needs to get ad revenue.
Well said. Just add in election year politics and you have the whole picture.
Some people don't seem to understand that it's possible to have opinions about the economy other than Pollyanna and armageddon.
I love how the doomsday crowd assumes that if you don't accept their economic apocalypse premise, you must think everything is sunshine, rainbows and butterflies -- that you must be "blind" to all the signs that The End Is Near.
It's possible to see very tough times ahead without being resigned to the fact that we're all irretrievably doomed.
Frankly, I'm suffering from a near-terminal case of "doomsday fatigue."
And many poster post what they think. It astounds me how you tend to ignore the facts claiming it's already known. Sorry but no one on this board has seen hard times unless you were in the great depression or WWII. History never repeats itself does it, good ole Uncle Sam's screwed the pouch for too long and now it's time to pay up. HOW ABOUT SOME REAL LINKS GUYS?
Look at the big picture, we're not just fighting on one front here. You think over 7 billion people could be a problem wanting what the US has?
And many poster post what they think. It astounds me how you tend to ignore the facts claiming it's already know. Sorry buy no one on this board has seen hard times unless you were in the great depression or WWII. History never repeats itself does it, good ole Uncle Sam's screwed the pouch for too long and now it's time to pay up. HOW ABOUT SOME REAL LINKS GUYS?
So are you saying that if it comes from someone on this board it's "just opinion", but if it comes from the media it's a FACT? Get real. If anything, there is a nice diversity of opinion here, unlike "reporters" that nearly all have the same bias.
<< <i>And many poster post what they think. It astounds me how you tend to ignore the facts claiming it's already know. >>
I don't ignore the facts.
I don't ignore that they are ugly.
I don't ignore that this has a high likelihood of leading to a long period of very trying times, the likes of which very few American people alive today have seen.
But I reject the conclusion that we are, simply put, toast. And I reject the idea that nothing we can do will make any difference at all.
The best way to make sure an apocalypse to happen is to convince everyone that it's coming and that no amount of effort, pain or sacrifice can change our long-term fate. So by being a cheerleader for doom and gloom, the more "converts" you get, the more likely your apparently desired economic collapse will be.
So if you *want* to convince everyone we're doomed -- and thus help ensure it happens -- keep doing what you're doing. But for full disclosure, is your portfolio positioned to profit from doomsday?
<< <i> And many poster post what they think. It astounds me how you tend to ignore the facts claiming it's already know. Sorry buy no one on this board has seen hard times unless you were in the great depression or WWII. History never repeats itself does it, good ole Uncle Sam's screwed the pouch for too long and now it's time to pay up. HOW ABOUT SOME REAL LINKS GUYS?
So are you saying that if it comes from someone on this board it's "just opinion", but if it comes from the media it's a FACT? Get real. If anything, there is a nice diversity of opinion here, unlike "reporters" that nearly all have the same bias. >>
Nope just saying that for some that's all they post and try to make some look like nuts. Ecomonies work in cycles and those marching to Wall Street and rigged goverement stats are in big trouble when the music stops. There's a lot of links from the FED or Wall street you can hype and then we can discuss them one by one. I read both sides but some read what they want. There's good info in a wide range of opinions....JMO
Just like high school some have never learned following the crowd can have a price. Free thinkers are hard to find since most people want to argue but not read anything that may be against their own theories.
"Let's not let the facts get in the way. Why not post something that paints a rosy picture instead of your gut feelings. "
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Ttown Ziggy is right the sky is falling,
Hey what comes after a QUADRILLION?
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear CIGAs,
The notional value of all outstanding derivatives now totals approximately $1.144 QUADRILLION.
This appears to be Bank of International Settlement Spin to announce the largest gain in derivatives outstanding since they started to report. As of the last report it appeared that both listed and OTC derivatives was under $600 trillion. Now listed credit derivatives alone stood at $548 Trillion. The OTC derivatives are shown as $596 trillion notional value, as of December 2007. One can only imagine what number they are at now.
Well we hit a QUADRILLION. We have more than $1000 trillion dollars in all derivatives outstanding. That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt. $548 trillion plus $596 trillion means $1.144 quadrillion."
I heard ranchers say that you better buy beef this year. Suppliers aren't stocking fertilizer since it's so expensive. He's sending his cattle to slauther since without fertilzer he can't grow enough hay to feed his stock and buying it is very very hard. I'd say that's one reason why the food supply is being tainted right now and we have so many issues with grown produce, many countries are using human waste for fertilizer
<< <i>ttown PM me if you want a hug have a great day
guys ...we are all in the same boat, maybe not the same deck, yet still the same boat.
>>
No sweet everyone has the right to believe what they want. You aren't going to change someones mind that is already made up. I post various threads as "food for thought". And your right about the best you can do is prepare for either path and not put too much in one basket.
The notional value of all outstanding derivatives now totals approximately $1.144 QUADRILLION.
"notional" value has a sensational appeal but value at risk is what really counts.
(stolen from an online article comment. i have to do a lot of reading to figure out why sinclair loves, yes loves, to be a sensationalist boob)
That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt.
i am not sure that is the case and will have to read some more to find out. notional value is used because derivs are hard to value so stating they instantly turn into real value seems to be innaccurate.
Gold is down about $40 in the past 2 days, and not a single "independent" thread mentions this. However, if it were up $40 in those same 2 days, I'd be wading and sifting through all the chest thumping, left wing, extremist threads calling for and end to our monetary system as we know it. Whew!!! Ok, I feel better.
That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt.
I am not sure that is the case and will have to read some more to find out. notional value is used because derivs are hard to value so stating they instantly turn into real value seems to be innaccurate.
Sinclair has been stating this for several years. It's very unlikely he is inaccurate considering he's one of the best financial minds out there when it comes to trading currencies, metals, and derivatives. It's one thing when a derivatives deal is based on a real asset and there is something tangible to pay off the winner (assuming the loser can pay). If the loser has nothing to pay with (ie he's bankrupt and the bet was a mere paper play) then the so-called winner has to take the whole thing as a loss. Should the "winner" have other counter parties (like a bond insurer for example) that cannot pay either, they are still in the same boat. If I insure you against a notional contract loss of $1 MILL by accepting monthly payments of say $10,000 for several years, what happens when I go under due to being unable to pay all the various defaults I insured? You still have a contract for $1 MILL in a losing position that is no longer hedged. On your balance sheet it makes sense that you now list that as a total loss (ie no longer an asset). Your insurer had too many losing bets he could not pay off. Since he was obligated for the full amount why not the remaining party who is left holding the bag?
At $1 QUADRILLION that's a lot of bets in which a significant percentage of losers won't be able to pay off on their guarantees. This was a major reason why Bear Stearns was swallowed up rather than allowed to default. Too many parties would have been essentially broke and unable to pay up. It was easier for JPM to take over the entire package to keep themselves (and the system in general) whole.
It's very odd that the BIS has been stating that the total notional value of all derivatives for the past year was under $600 TRILL. Now all of a suddent they effectively double the number. Makes you wonder just what the heck is going on and what the truth is when in comes to exchanged traded as well as OTC derivatives.
There are now 1,100,000,000,000,000 reasons for gold to rise much further in price. Even with a tiny 2% default rate we are still looking at a $20 TRILLION hit. I suspect the default rate will be higher because of all the interlinking. And rather than allow the defaults to occur, the FED will electronically drop money all over the system that will not show up in currently published govt statistics.
Of the 9 different types of accounts my fund offers, all 9 (stock, growth, international, realestate, etc.) were down today...even the money market fund. Now that's weird.
Bear, while I was reading your post, on the radio was a hip-hop ad of.....whatever.....I never listen to what the ad is for except for "freecredit-report-dot-com-baby." My 4 kids sang it a bit during our last vacation.
<< <i>Well we hit a QUADRILLION. We have more than $1000 trillion dollars in all derivatives outstanding. That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt. $548 trillion plus $596 trillion means $1.144 quadrillion." >>
I think you guys are a little off. notional value is the amount on which interest and other payments are based. Notional value typically does not change hands; it is simply a quantity used to calculate payments.
Lets say I have 100 million in loans due me at a variable rate between 5 and 7%. I want a fixed 6% rate. I sell off the variable to a broker who assures me 6% (for a fee) on the 100 mil. He then breaks them up and sells them in pieces to others who think they can make money when the rate goes past 6. Now the amount at risk here is a lot less then the 200 million in notional value that these contracts total.
Bear, while I was reading your post, on the radio was a hip-hop ad of.....whatever.....I never listen to what the ad is for except for "freecredit-report-dot-com-baby." My 4 kids sang it a bit during our last vacation.
Re: Slabbed coins - There are some coins that LIVE within clear plastic and wear their labels with pride... while there are others that HIDE behind scratched plastic and are simply dragged along by a label. Then there are those coins that simply hang out, naked and free
Ok Ziggy, I missed that one, you got me. But how many threads independent from this one would there be if the move was north rather than south? 5? 8? >>
what is scary is there are many thoughts ( conclusions and predictions) on this same subject ( the Fed against a wall) coming from all corners (some corners are still clandestine) but, um....
ie even Obama has been spotted with McCain and Bernanke at WalMart buying incontinent products.
The Fed must raise rates to protect the dollar and lower the price of oil...BUT THEY CAN'T!
The Fed must lower rates to counter a deteriorating financial situation.....BUT THEY CAN'T!
The Fed should keep rates where they are as the least damaging move......BUT THEY CAN'T FOR MUCH LONGER!
Jaw boning will only work the first few times it is used. It is fast approaching useless.
BoA stock, continues to decline. Dividends now over 8%. A danger signal if there ever was one.
Congress in gridlock over meaningful action. Rome burns while Congress fiddles.
Mortgage interest rates increasing!
Transport Index fell out of bed today!
If it wasn't bad enough having increasing food prices, our tomatoes now can make you sick. Food sources from out of country are now an increasing cause of Salmonella Infection.
Comments
I fully expect gold to at least double or triple from here and the dollar to fall another 30%. Silver should go up 5X to 10X from here. My calculations show far more than 30% in 5 yrs. We couldn't disagree more about the short or long term trends in gold. Let me guess, you've been shorting gold all along from $260, $300,
$400, $500, $600, $700, $800, $900, etc? Whether you end up with yen or dollars is irrelevant as you still only have a fuel source with approx an 8000 BTU/lbm value.
Let's start with the shorter term goal: gold will exceed it's $1033 high later this year. Then in 2009 we will see at least $1200. Gold has been returning 20-25% per year on average. That trend will only accelerate as the curve steepens.
roadrunner
<< <i>You can guess gold will go up, but in fact it will go down.. you can wait 5 years to make 30% if you choose, but hey more power to the flower. Right on....
I fully expect gold to at least double or triple from here and the dollar to fall another 30%. Silver should go up 5X to 10X from here. My calculations show far more than 30% in 5 yrs. We couldn't disagree more about the short or long term trends in gold.
Let me guess, you've been shorting gold all along from $260, $300,
$400, $500, $600, $700, $800, $900, etc? Whether you end up with yen or dollars is irrelevant as you still only have a fuel source with approx an 8000 BTU/lbm value.
Let's start with the shorter term goal: gold will exceed it's $1033 high later this year. Then in 2009 we will see at least $1200. Gold has been returning 20-25% per year on average. That trend will only accelerate as the curve steepens.
roadrunner >>
roadrunner, my gut is telling me you have to stop reading all those
gold bug emails and websites. yes, gold will trend upwards but to
double and triple from this point on? i just cannot see it happening
in the next 5 years.
5 years ago yes, i was on the same boat you were that gold would
go up. no brainer. now days i am not seeing it. sure we will have
another mini spike past 1000 and stabilize around there... but i just
have to disagree with the double and triple talk.
is not these letters written by the people who own gold mines and
otherwise have a financial interest is spamming the world with their
propaganda? they have made a career out of it!!!
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
When one single financial stat is improving I will start to soften my stance. But until that day occurs then the trend continues. There is nothing magic about $1000 gold other than in 1980 dollars it's about $400 today. Gold miners aren't driving the market at this time considering their costs are running around $700/oz average due to inflation and political agendas.
roadrunner
a most irritating and pompous talking head.
Camelot
sure that guy you are speaking of is anti-gold and wrong often...
but so were the pro-gold characters for almost two decades while
gold languished.
only in the last 5-7 years have they even been close to being right.
was it not just a few months ago they were spouting things like this
is "it!". A perfect storm! Hold onto your hats!
hm. commodities were due for an increase due to obvious factors
like india/china and the drop in the dollar.
what is this perfect storm you are waiting for this time?
This thread has chewed up a slew of anti-gold pundits over the past 4 yrs. I expect a similar quantity over the next several years as well.
I have no idea why people over the last 4 years did not see the rise
in gold coming that made sense on so many levels.
but what you are predicting is such a long shot that i think you want
to see happen that you will convince yourself no matter what.
the material you are reading is not helping you make a rational decision
in my mind. it is propaganda written by the players in gold from what
i have read. actual CEOs of companies that are part of the gold industry
that have nothing better to do then write articles every day. whats
his nut.. i cant think of his name but you know what i speak of.
i am not trying to convince you otherwise... but you cannot take past
performance and use that as proof for current and future performance. you just do not do that in my mind.
as for the mess this country is in... the US will simply have to learn the
hard way. we have been in trouble before and came out of it better
then ever. stop being so pessimistic. get of my lawn comes to mind.
things were better in my day sorta thinking.
<< <i>You can guess gold will go up, but in fact it will go down.. you can wait 5 years to make 30% if you choose, but hey more power to the flower. Right on....
I fully expect gold to at least double or triple from here and the dollar to fall another 30%. Silver should go up 5X to 10X from here. My calculations show far more than 30% in 5 yrs. We couldn't disagree more about the short or long term trends in gold. Let me guess, you've been shorting gold all along from $260, $300,
$400, $500, $600, $700, $800, $900, etc? Whether you end up with yen or dollars is irrelevant as you still only have a fuel source with approx an 8000 BTU/lbm value.
Let's start with the shorter term goal: gold will exceed it's $1033 high later this year. Then in 2009 we will see at least $1200. Gold has been returning 20-25% per year on average. That trend will only accelerate as the curve steepens.
roadrunner >>
I couldn't agree more?
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Or the deficit is telling you its going down?
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
just like oil, when prices rise, more of it comes out the ground due
to making it feasible to go after it...
when gold becomes too expensive manufacturers stop using it and
find substitutes.
people stop buying jewelry.
... i guess i am done for the night, playing the devil's advocate.
<< <i>not with all that gold around?
just like oil, when prices rise, more of it comes out the ground due
to making it feasible to go after it...
when gold becomes too expensive manufacturers stop using it and
find substitutes.
people stop buying jewelry.
... i guess i am done for the night, playing the devil's advocate. >>
Its a mole over a mole hill.
I agree, because thats what happens in a depression.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
The yen has the most to loose, according to the fed, but in 2005 we already new that the yen would restrengthen, and we new China was also not going to give in to value there currency.
Gold isn't the answer to today..
maybe its all the NASA patents that could be used today, and not tomorrow..
Or any number of choices. My choices are never the same as yours.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Slowly down the tubes, who is financing this anyway?
Lets see the Federal government has a half a trillion short fall each year, and the Federal reserve just bought half a trillion worth or bad paper from the banks, so do you think they are printing the money?
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The trade deficit jumped to the highest level in 13 months in April as America's bill for foreign crude oil soared to an all-time high.
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the gap between what the nation imports and what it sells abroad rose by 7.8 percent to $60.9 billion, the largest imbalance since March 2007. The April deficit was $4.4 billion higher than the March imbalance of $56.5 billion.
U.S. export sales totaled $155.5 billion in April, up 3.3 percent to an all-time high, reflecting big gains in sales of commercial aircraft, farm machinery, medical equipment and computers. But this increase was swamped by a 4.5 percent rise in imports, which also set a record at $216.4 billion, reflecting the huge increase in oil as well as big gains in imports of autos and consumer goods.
The deficit through the first four months of this year is running at an annual rate of $707.5 billion.”
It is easy to say "Hey, gold is sky rocketing and worth $1200/oz now so I can buy a couple ounces at $1400 and still be in good shape and maybe it will even rise from here." Bad play. The better play is "Hey, I have an extra $800 and gold is sleepy and quiet so I'm going to get a nice eagle and stick it in the drawer and keep the change in a rainy day envelope." That's the strategy I've been using for the last few years and I've amassed a fair number of ozs like that (barely halfway to a 100/my goal), without stretching or converting assets, it just takes patience. It also takes not pissin' your money away of trendy, feel good merchandise. It's like my wife told me..."You can't have everything, you have to set priorities." So, would you rather have an Iphone or an eagle?
I would love to see gold go to $1500 but I know that if it does, gas will be $6 or $8, concrete will be $15/sf for flat work, food will be a multiple of where it is now or some such calamity. Look at gold like a savings account that no one knows you have...cash in and cash out. Gold is the great equalizer.
Most of those regular participants here are plenty financially astute and wise to the world of investing so my post is kind of "yeah, so?" for you guys but for the guy that wants to get a leg up on the world, steady PM accumulation without stretching will serve most of us quite well. No need to speculate.
Gold is good.
to making it feasible to go after it...
when gold becomes too expensive manufacturers stop using it and
find substitutes.
Gold is much harder to create than are electronic credit or electronic cash. So, that's what governments are doing - creating electronic money and credit, much, much, much faster than gold is being mined.
Oil is ultimately even scarcer, but not nearly as convenient as gold to use as a store of wealth. And, oil is a consummable.
World population continues to rise, and all commodities are becoming less available, as food riots have already taken place.
It's a relative sort of thing. Even more importantly, it's a trust issue. Now, my childhood was fine as far as I can tell, but my fiancee' might tell you that I have "trust issues" when it comes to the banks and the government. Why would that be?
Is that experience talking, or just a psychological disorder concerning distrust of financial institutions from some long-forgotten episode with a piggy bank?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Why It’s Worse Than You Think >>
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
<< <i>
<< <i>Why It’s Worse Than You Think >>
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! >>
Let's not let the facts get in the way. Why not post something that paints a rosy picture instead of your gut feelings.
Fed chief: Risk of major downturn 'diminished'
Really some of you guys need to get out more. Just because you have a good job and can pay higher prices that's a small percentage of us that isn't overloaded with debt and falling assests. And those with good jobs are just a layoff away from seeing a different picture. The old jobs pay more than anything you can find in most fields in the US today.
"There, but for the Grace of God, go I."
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Why It’s Worse Than You Think >>
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! >>
Let's not let the facts get in the way. Why not post something that paints a rosy picture instead of your gut feelings. >>
Ok. Lets look at the article closer.
"Auto sales, the largest retailing sector in the U.S., were off 10.7 percent in May from the year before. And housing? Ugh. Nationwide, according to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices in the first quarter fell 14 percent."
These are the two darn sectors everyone knows has a problem for the last years!
Stupid GM and FORD with their overpriced, under performing, gas guzzling vehicles. They simply
cannot compete with Honda and Toyota right now. Heck, I just bought a 45 MPG Toyota Prius last
week and Toyota cannot keep up with demand for their 4 cylinder vehicles. It is like printing money
for them. While silly GM and FORD truck/suv owners trade in their vehicles for huge losses to get
a better car for the times. That is why they suck. End of story. Mismanagement. Of course jobs
will be lost when you close 5 truck/SUV factories every 3 months.
Everyone knows why housing is in the crapper. Speculation and overpaying. Not people living in their
one home but the gamblers who failed to pay up every month. Such a small sliver of the actual home
owners are defaulting. The huge majority pay month after month.
ugh. the rest of the article is regurgitating the same old stuff from 6 months ago. High oil and commodities.
This turn around time for the economy might be a, get this, a whole year! Not the expect 6 months. Growth
will be 1%! Wake me up when we start to shrink 1% of 4 quarters in a row. banks are doing poorly... no crap,
when you give out loans to people who did not deserve them and were to dumb to get a fixed rate after
the ARM ran out.
anyway. i agree with ziggy. speculation, sensationalism, and etc.. everything the media needs to get ad
revenue.
<<
<< Why It�s Worse Than You Think >>
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! >>
Let's not let the facts get in the way. Why not post something that paints a rosy picture instead of your gut feelings. >>
Ok. Lets look at the article closer.
"Auto sales, the largest retailing sector in the U.S., were off 10.7 percent in May from the year before. And housing? Ugh. Nationwide, according to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices in the first quarter fell 14 percent."
These are the two darn sectors everyone knows has a problem for the last years!
Stupid GM and FORD with their overpriced, under performing, gas guzzling vehicles. They simply
cannot compete with Honda and Toyota right now. Heck, I just bought a 45 MPG Toyota Prius last
week and Toyota cannot keep up with demand for their 4 cylinder vehicles. It is like printing money
for them. While silly GM and FORD truck/suv owners trade in their vehicles for huge losses to get
a better car for the times. That is why they suck. End of story. Mismanagement. Of course jobs
will be lost when you close 5 truck/SUV factories every 3 months.
Everyone knows why housing is in the crapper. Speculation and overpaying. Not people living in their
one home but the gamblers who failed to pay up every month. Such a small sliver of the actual home
owners are defaulting. The huge majority pay month after month.
ugh. the rest of the article is regurgitating the same old stuff from 6 months ago. High oil and commodities.
This turn around time for the economy might be a, get this, a whole year! Not the expect 6 months. Growth
will be 1%! Wake me up when we start to shrink 1% of 4 quarters in a row. banks are doing poorly... no crap,
when you give out loans to people who did not deserve them and were to dumb to get a fixed rate after
the ARM ran out.
anyway. i agree with ziggy. speculation, sensationalism, and etc.. everything the media needs to get ad
revenue.
Well said. Just add in election year politics and you have the whole picture.
I love how the doomsday crowd assumes that if you don't accept their economic apocalypse premise, you must think everything is sunshine, rainbows and butterflies -- that you must be "blind" to all the signs that The End Is Near.
It's possible to see very tough times ahead without being resigned to the fact that we're all irretrievably doomed.
Frankly, I'm suffering from a near-terminal case of "doomsday fatigue."
Look at the big picture, we're not just fighting on one front here. You think over 7 billion people could be a problem wanting what the US has?
China consuming twice what its ecosystems can supply: WWF
So are you saying that if it comes from someone on this board it's "just opinion", but if it comes from the media it's a FACT? Get real. If anything, there is a nice diversity of opinion here, unlike "reporters" that nearly all have the same bias.
<< <i>And many poster post what they think. It astounds me how you tend to ignore the facts claiming it's already know. >>
I don't ignore the facts.
I don't ignore that they are ugly.
I don't ignore that this has a high likelihood of leading to a long period of very trying times, the likes of which very few American people alive today have seen.
But I reject the conclusion that we are, simply put, toast. And I reject the idea that nothing we can do will make any difference at all.
The best way to make sure an apocalypse to happen is to convince everyone that it's coming and that no amount of effort, pain or sacrifice can change our long-term fate. So by being a cheerleader for doom and gloom, the more "converts" you get, the more likely your apparently desired economic collapse will be.
So if you *want* to convince everyone we're doomed -- and thus help ensure it happens -- keep doing what you're doing. But for full disclosure, is your portfolio positioned to profit from doomsday?
<< <i> And many poster post what they think. It astounds me how you tend to ignore the facts claiming it's already know. Sorry buy no one on this board has seen hard times unless you were in the great depression or WWII. History never repeats itself does it, good ole Uncle Sam's screwed the pouch for too long and now it's time to pay up. HOW ABOUT SOME REAL LINKS GUYS?
So are you saying that if it comes from someone on this board it's "just opinion", but if it comes from the media it's a FACT? Get real. If anything, there is a nice diversity of opinion here, unlike "reporters" that nearly all have the same bias. >>
Nope just saying that for some that's all they post and try to make some look like nuts. Ecomonies work in cycles and those marching to Wall Street and rigged goverement stats are in big trouble when the music stops. There's a lot of links from the FED or Wall street you can hype and then we can discuss them one by one. I read both sides but some read what they want. There's good info in a wide range of opinions....JMO
Just like high school some have never learned following the crowd can have a price. Free thinkers are hard to find since most people want to argue but not read anything that may be against their own theories.
DERIVATIVES MARKET IS UNWINDING!"
Total Notional Value Of Derivatives Outstanding Surpasses One Quadrillion
National Farmers Union Press Release-Lowest Food Supplies in 50-100 Years: Global Food Crisis Emerging
AAM Concerned with CCC Inventories
have a great day
guys ...we are all in the same boat, maybe not the same deck, yet still the same boat.
"The sky is falling! The sky is falling!"
"Let's not let the facts get in the way. Why not post something that paints a rosy picture instead of your gut feelings. "
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Ttown Ziggy is right the sky is falling,
Hey what comes after a QUADRILLION?
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear CIGAs,
The notional value of all outstanding derivatives now totals approximately $1.144 QUADRILLION.
This appears to be Bank of International Settlement Spin to announce the largest gain in derivatives outstanding since they started to report. As of the last report it appeared that both listed and OTC derivatives was under $600 trillion. Now listed credit derivatives alone stood at $548 Trillion. The OTC derivatives are shown as $596 trillion notional value, as of December 2007. One can only imagine what number they are at now.
Well we hit a QUADRILLION. We have more than $1000 trillion dollars in all derivatives outstanding. That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt. $548 trillion plus $596 trillion means $1.144 quadrillion."
New threat to food system: pricey fertilizer
<< <i>ttown PM me if you want a hug
have a great day
guys ...we are all in the same boat, maybe not the same deck, yet still the same boat.
No sweet everyone has the right to believe what they want. You aren't going to change someones mind that is already made up. I post various threads as "food for thought". And your right about the best you can do is prepare for either path and not put too much in one basket.
"notional" value has a sensational appeal but value at risk is what really counts.
(stolen from an online article comment. i have to do a lot of reading
to figure out why sinclair loves, yes loves, to be a sensationalist boob)
That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt.
i am not sure that is the case and will have to read some more to find out. notional value is used because derivs are hard to value
so stating they instantly turn into real value seems to be innaccurate.
i need to visit the library and get a few books.
That would be a Quintillion. Are you just looking ahead?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Gold is down about $40 in the past 2 days, and not a single "independent" thread mentions this. >>
Really?
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold is down about $40 in the past 2 days, and not a single "independent" thread mentions this. >>
Really? >>
Ok Ziggy, I missed that one, you got me. But how many threads independent from this one would there be if the move was north rather than south? 5? 8?
financial sea.
The crew is drunk,
the captain mad
and the sexton
went over the side
Camelot
I am not sure that is the case and will have to read some more to find out. notional value is used because derivs are hard to value
so stating they instantly turn into real value seems to be innaccurate.
Sinclair has been stating this for several years. It's very unlikely he is inaccurate considering he's one of the best financial minds out there when it comes to trading currencies, metals, and derivatives. It's one thing when a derivatives deal is based on a real asset and there is something tangible to pay off the winner (assuming the loser can pay). If the loser has nothing to pay with (ie he's bankrupt and the bet was a mere paper play) then the so-called winner has to take the whole thing as a loss. Should the "winner" have other counter parties (like a bond insurer for example) that cannot pay either, they are still in the same boat. If I insure you against a notional contract loss of $1 MILL by accepting monthly payments of say $10,000 for several years, what happens when I go under due to being unable to pay all the various defaults I insured? You still have a contract for $1 MILL in a losing position that is no longer hedged. On your balance sheet it makes sense that you now list that as a total loss (ie no longer an asset). Your insurer had too many losing bets he could not pay off. Since he was obligated for the full amount why not the remaining party who is left holding the bag?
At $1 QUADRILLION that's a lot of bets in which a significant percentage of losers won't be able to pay off on their guarantees. This was a major reason why Bear Stearns was swallowed up rather than allowed to default. Too many parties would have been essentially broke and unable to pay up. It was easier for JPM to take over the entire package to keep themselves (and the system in general) whole.
It's very odd that the BIS has been stating that the total notional value of all derivatives for the past year was under $600 TRILL. Now all of a suddent they effectively double the number. Makes you wonder just what the heck is going on and what the truth is when in comes to exchanged traded as well as OTC derivatives.
There are now 1,100,000,000,000,000 reasons for gold to rise much further in price. Even with a tiny 2% default rate we are still looking at a $20 TRILLION hit. I suspect the default rate will be higher because of all the interlinking. And rather than allow the defaults to occur, the FED will electronically drop money all over the system that will not show up in currently published govt statistics.
roadrunner
Of the 9 different types of accounts my fund offers, all 9 (stock, growth, international, realestate, etc.) were down today...even the money market fund. Now that's weird.
<< <i>Sailing, sailing over the
financial sea.
The crew is drunk,
the captain mad
and the sexton
went over the side
Bear, while I was reading your post, on the radio was a hip-hop ad of.....whatever.....I never listen to what the ad is for except for "freecredit-report-dot-com-baby." My 4 kids sang it a bit during our last vacation.
Your post would go good with a beat....baby.
R
<< <i>Well we hit a QUADRILLION. We have more than $1000 trillion dollars in all derivatives outstanding. That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt. $548 trillion plus $596 trillion means $1.144 quadrillion." >>
I think you guys are a little off. notional value is the amount on which interest and other payments are based. Notional value typically does not change hands; it is simply a quantity used to calculate payments.
Lets say I have 100 million in loans due me at a variable rate between 5 and 7%. I want a fixed 6% rate. I sell off the variable to a broker who assures me 6% (for a fee) on the 100 mil. He then breaks them up and sells them in pieces to others who think they can make money when the rate goes past 6. Now the amount at risk here is a lot less then the 200 million in notional value that these contracts total.
financial sea.
The crew is drunk,
the captain mad
and the sexton
went over the side
>>
Bear, while I was reading your post, on the radio was a hip-hop ad of.....whatever.....I never listen to what the ad is for except for "freecredit-report-dot-com-baby." My 4 kids sang it a bit during our last vacation.
Your post would go good with a beat....baby.
R
Funny, yet sadly true!
<< <i>freecredit-report-dot-com-baby >>
That's a great song!!! lol
<< <i>Sailing, sailing over the
financial sea.
The crew is drunk,
the captain mad
and the sexton
went over the side
This is absolutely
The BEST post
I have read
on this entire thread
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold is down about $40 in the past 2 days, and not a single "independent" thread mentions this. >>
Really? >>
Ok Ziggy, I missed that one, you got me. But how many threads independent from this one would there be if the move was north rather than south? 5? 8? >>
a hella lot...is usually what happens.
Fears grow that MRSA variant has entered food chain
North America tomato industry reeling: growers
<< <i>Fed has clearly painted themselves into a corner >>
what is scary is there are many thoughts ( conclusions and predictions) on this same subject ( the Fed against a wall) coming from all corners (some corners are still clandestine) but, um....
ie even Obama has been spotted with McCain and Bernanke at WalMart buying incontinent products.
and lower the price of oil...BUT THEY CAN'T!
The Fed must lower rates to counter a deteriorating
financial situation.....BUT THEY CAN'T!
The Fed should keep rates where they are as the
least damaging move......BUT THEY CAN'T FOR MUCH LONGER!
Jaw boning will only work the first few times it is used.
It is fast approaching useless.
BoA stock, continues to decline. Dividends now over 8%. A danger
signal if there ever was one.
Congress in gridlock over meaningful action. Rome burns while
Congress fiddles.
Mortgage interest rates increasing!
Transport Index fell out of bed today!
If it wasn't bad enough having increasing food prices, our tomatoes
now can make you sick. Food sources from out of country are now an
increasing cause of Salmonella Infection.
Gas fast approaching $5 a gallon!
War continues!
So, whats to worry about?
Camelot
The dow Jones to close below 12,000 then the bear market is back..
There is no reason to support the dollar with the deficit so high..
Any action to strengthen the dollar now will be met with a bear, and a short on the dollars..
Is it the government that is intentionally making this case for a stronger dollar? of course they are..
In all fairness, it will be short lived regardless if there is a rally.
Why would they want gold to go down? they are making a fortune selling at these high prices..
There is a lack of volume in the markets, that alone gives the market makers, and the GOV. the ability to go long with little resistance..
You can be very sure when they make a case for the all clear, the opposite will be true.
It is very difficult to find the market direction right now, but based on volume, and the dow12,000 I believe the case is for further weakening..
Look out below. bank of england signals no more right downs, looking at the idea with an eye on the truth, if this is to be considered truth,
then it makes more sense that the fed played a roll in fixing there banking problems, so they can eventually help ours.
gaps in the chart, the gap should be filled quickly during normal circumstances.
If the gap is filled soon, it doesn't signal the all clear, it signals a reversal for further weakness. IMO
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.