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GOLD AND SILVER WORLD NEWS, ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS

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  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    Geezzzz, we're looking at 7000 posts in this thread.
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    FC, I find that when it comes to financial discussions, you and

    a number of contributors to this thread ,make a heck of a lot

    more sense then many of the financial gurus on tv. The Gurus

    seem to be wrong about half the time. Then they alwas have

    an excuse for it and go on to tell you about the 50% they guessed

    right on.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • commoncents05commoncents05 Posts: 10,084 ✭✭✭
    7000.

    -Paul
    Many Quality coins for sale at http://www.CommonCentsRareCoins.com
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    For heaven's sake keep posting. Rumor has it,

    that when this thread ends, the world comes to

    it's end.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Keep posting because the "John Nanney" thread is gaining.

    Ren
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,527 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Keep posting because the "John Nanney" thread is gaining.

    Ren >>




    I just noticed that. Who'd a thunk it when it was back on 75 posts. I've read most of it but don't think I've posted in it.
    Tempus fugit.
  • 66Tbird66Tbird Posts: 2,858 ✭✭✭
    Always enjoy the read gentlemen, thank you.

    So, how many here have a home garden? We have more veggies than we can eat on only 200 sq. ft. of dirt.

    Anyone doing solar anything? I charge a bank of four deep cycles and use that to run my computer, tv, and lights in my den each night for 3-4 hrs.

    FWIW, a question about solar panels and how many would be needed to satisfy our needs. Basically, for residential type panels, it take 100 sq.ft to make 1KWH in full light. Average home uses 12K/day The rest of the math is easy. Thin film solar is advancing quickly and could be the real product for the average Joe in five to ten. Though be it 150 sq.ft./KWH at the moment with a five to ten life span, but 1/10 the cost to install. (FSLR)
    I know this because I'm waiting to see if the renewable energy incentives are renewed. If so my typeset will become a 15KW conventional on grid system. I understand that it would take years to get all my money back, but selling that set would save me $300+ each month in the summer which is doing more than it would sitting in the SDB. It's not like I through the money away, the system is still at 80% efficient after twenty years.

    Wind sector is going great. Lots of growth in all sizes all parts of the UsA. I have an alternator for a little 300w roof top unit I may put up if the correct blades show up on the bay.
    Even hydro is do-able on a small scale with a little shop skill. I used a turbo impeller, an RC car motor and ESC along with general hardware and now when I water the yard at night the water pressure powers the lawn lights. (or charges batteries 14v @3A)

    Thanks again for the great reading.

    Need something designed and 3D printed?


  • << <i>Always enjoy the read gentlemen, thank you.

    So, how many here have a home garden? We have more veggies than we can eat on only 200 sq. ft. of dirt.

    Anyone doing solar anything? I charge a bank of four deep cycles and use that to run my computer, tv, and lights in my den each night for 3-4 hrs.

    FWIW, a question about solar panels and how many would be needed to satisfy our needs. Basically, for residential type panels, it take 100 sq.ft to make 1KWH in full light. Average home uses 12K/day The rest of the math is easy. Thin film solar is advancing quickly and could be the real product for the average Joe in five to ten. Though be it 150 sq.ft./KWH at the moment with a five to ten life span, but 1/10 the cost to install. (FSLR)
    I know this because I'm waiting to see if the renewable energy incentives are renewed. If so my typeset will become a 15KW conventional on grid system. I understand that it would take years to get all my money back, but selling that set would save me $300+ each month in the summer which is doing more than it would sitting in the SDB. It's not like I through the money away, the system is still at 80% efficient after twenty years.

    Wind sector is going great. Lots of growth in all sizes all parts of the UsA. I have an alternator for a little 300w roof top unit I may put up if the correct blades show up on the bay.
    Even hydro is do-able on a small scale with a little shop skill. I used a turbo impeller, an RC car motor and ESC along with general hardware and now when I water the yard at night the water pressure powers the lawn lights. (or charges batteries 14v @3A)

    Thanks again for the great reading. >>



    Thats awesome. Try this one out, its an idea/invention of mine that was taken directly from Teslas radiant energy machine.

    Things you need.

    1. a sheet of metal, like copper flashing.
    2. a sheet of mica, for the insulator.
    3. a capacitor for charging.
    4. a lead ground. and a few wire leads.
    5. optional possibility, adding a strong neodymium magnet to the underside of the devise. Just a speculation.
    6 A drained deep cycle battery.
    7. a trigger devise to discharge the cap. could be a bread board type circuit, to handle the discharging duty of the cap into the battery..

    Here is the theory behind the devise. Tesla, the man of light made a radiant energy devise. It would charge even at night. His focus on stating the higher the better has significant meaning. I have the patent itself if you want to understand this 100 year old technology better, just PM me and ill give you the patent #.

    What he did was hang a solar panel from a pole, the higher the better, reasoning is because electrons are free floating, high in the atmosphere. Check out NASA sts 75 to view a similar devise. Dont pay any attention to the alien space craft, they are just getting a free charge off the satellite. Yes its true we lost the satellite, but I believe that is just a hose job, can you say free gift.

    The solar panel was a sheet of metal, with a mica backing for an insulator. electrons would flow down the pole, even at night and charge the CAP. I believe his secret holds another key for us to discover, that key is this. You do not necessarily need the flag pole.

    Its operation is similar to lightning, high up in the clouds negative, and positive ions collide, sometimes separated by the water droplets in a cloud. the water acts as the insulator separating the negative, and positive charges. when the charge become great enough to overcome the capacitance of the water insulator, then BANG a discharge of lightning, and the thunder clap that follows.

    THIS IS WHAT HE TAPPED INTO IMO. Even more profound is the ability to understanding the simple function of a capacitor.

    All you will need to do is make the radiant energy devise he describes, and lay it horizontally across the surface of the earth.
    My understanding is that protons reside very close to the surface of our earth, and the ground itself is one side of the capacitor.

    The other side of the capacitor is the upper atmosphere, there the negative, and positive Ions float freely, separated only by air. in between the charging plates the Air in itself acts as the insulator.

    A quote from the man of light himself. Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
    patent #685,957 Text
    Humblepie

    I have found power in the mysteries of thought.

    It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.

    Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.

    .
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,065 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Keep posting because the "John Nanney" thread is gaining.

    Ren >>




    I just noticed that. Who'd a thunk it when it was back on 75 posts. I've read most of it but don't think I've posted in it. >>



    A fair number of the posts to that thread are pure unadulterated USDA Grade A bullchit too.image
    theknowitalltroll;
  • 66Tbird66Tbird Posts: 2,858 ✭✭✭
    thestig,

    I'll keep this OT answer short,

    That is a well explained idea and one I do believe I have the parts for. I will run it by my partner in crime, who BTW along with me is also huge fan of Tesla, he is a retired SR71 tech and gets very nervous around big caps and high voltage. A lesson well learned at some point I figure..


    Need something designed and 3D printed?
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    Hey, us BS's have feelings you know.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • LokiLoki Posts: 897 ✭✭
    Tesla fans should see the recent movie "The Prestige". David Bowie was cast as Tesla, so it's all good!
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Always enjoy the read gentlemen, thank you.

    So, how many here have a home garden? We have more veggies than we can eat on only 200 sq. ft. of dirt.

    66Tbird
    I have one of them home gardens....very time consuming because mine is large for a one-man operation. My wife told me of an article she read last year about the "$68 Tomato." Nuff said.

    Still, it's a lot of fun. I've recently started a 16 plant "vineyard." So, in maybe 5+ years I can make wine.

    image

    Ren
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,047 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Keep posting because the "John Nanney" thread is gaining.

    Ren >>




    I just noticed that. Who'd a thunk it when it was back on 75 posts. I've read most of it but don't think I've posted in it. >>




    There is a chance that post could reach or pass this thread. But.... It will only be temporary. It will not have the legs that this thread has or will have. The economic, gold, and silver situation will always be changing and fluctuating, and thus ongoing commentary will occur. How long will a discussion about a variety keep going?? As an example, how many long lived threads are still ongoing about the First Spouse gold, or the extra leaf quarters, or the reverse proof eagles, etc... There is only so much that can be said for so long..... and it will eventually dwindle.....
    ----- kj
  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    I have most of a home garden. I'm still digging in the soil. Actually, it's not soil at all but hard clumps dark stuff. Most of it will have to come out and be replaced with garden soil and planting mixl. The only saving grace is that the site I chose is well drained and gets maximum sunlight all day. It is labor intensive and will require maintenance but it should be fun. Also, I used to farm so this will be a path back to my roots...ha nice pun.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,969 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My home garden is about 1600 sq ft. I grow just a few of the basics that can be canned/frozen easily and stored for the winter. But the vast majority is saved for growing giant pumpkins. There are competitions all around the country and the largest 'kin can be worth $1000-$2000+. That buys a lot of groceries at the store.

    I wonder how much ethanol can be produced from a 1000# pumpkin?image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear



  • << <i>Back to making predictions with the use of charts. Take a look at nasdaq, new developments for the last week.
    With a very, very bearish outlook for the days, and weeks ahead,, it seems that the correction is done, therefor the top has been made.
    There is now A clear impulsive wave structure. Nasdaq is on the way down since Monday of the last week.
    Predictable, the current wave should be done at around 2400, followed by a correction to around 2460-2500.

    After A small correction, fasten your seat belts for the trip down, too also complete a much larger wave that will follow.. >>

    image


    image >>



    Ok you see the gap here in the chart, there are 2 cases to be made. The first is under most circumstances the gap gets closed.

    the gap should close within a few days to a week, just a guess. these gaps don't last long under normal circumstances.

    The other circumstance is when a currency become so devalued, the gap does not close.

    the correction back up to close the gap would be a blessing, wise old bear, but if the dollar continues its free fall to a new all time low, its very possible this gap does not get filled anytime soon.

    we really need to talk about the 10 trillion dollar deficit.
    Humblepie

    I have found power in the mysteries of thought.

    It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.

    Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.

    .
  • since i have read so much interesting information in this thread, let me share how
    i dialed in the perfect commercial garden as a one man operation.

    two words: lawn sweeper.

    buy a lawn sweeper from sears craftsman. place the grass clippings around the base of the plants
    and in the rows for weed control and moisture retention. it works, you don't so much.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>since i have read so much interesting information in this thread, let me share how
    i dialed in the perfect commercial garden as a one man operation.

    two words: lawn sweeper.

    buy a lawn sweeper from sears craftsman. place the grass clippings around the base of the plants
    and in the rows for weed control and moisture retention. it works, you don't so much. >>



    I've gotta try that. I takes me about 2+ hours to mow my lawn. My ride-on mower collects the grass clippings in two mesh baskets. I have to empty both baskets four times each mowing "experience." I use the clippings for winter mulch to protect the needy plants.

    I also grow giant sunflowers. In the fall we collect the seeds, wash them, salt them and bake 'em and put away container or two for spring baseball.

    I've noticed as food get more expensive, the more I think about expanding and storing.

    Ren
  • i've got faith in the american spirit. we can shift and go back to the old ways in a minute. image
  • mrearlygoldmrearlygold Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I have most of a home garden. I'm still digging in the soil. Actually, it's not soil at all but hard clumps dark stuff. Most of it will have to come out and be replaced with garden soil and planting mixl. The only saving grace is that the site I chose is well drained and gets maximum sunlight all day. It is labor intensive and will require maintenance but it should be fun. Also, I used to farm so this will be a path back to my roots...ha nice pun. >>



    We've gotten more than 100 EXCELLENT tomatoes thus far with at least that many more showing as little teeny tiny green tomatoes at the moment, and are now waiting on the watermelons.

    Along with a number of different herbs, tangerines, red grapefruits, honeybells, bannana's, lemongrass, dragonfruit , green onion, mint, and I'm sure I'm forgetting something but you get the point.image


  • << <i>

    << <i>since i have read so much interesting information in this thread, let me share how
    i dialed in the perfect commercial garden as a one man operation.

    two words: lawn sweeper.

    buy a lawn sweeper from sears craftsman. place the grass clippings around the base of the plants
    and in the rows for weed control and moisture retention. it works, you don't so much. >>



    I've gotta try that. I takes me about 2+ hours to mow my lawn. My ride-on mower collects the grass clippings in two mesh baskets. I have to empty both baskets four times each mowing "experience." I use the clippings for winter mulch to protect the needy plants.

    I also grow giant sunflowers. In the fall we collect the seeds, wash them, salt them and bake 'em and put away container or two for spring baseball.

    I've noticed as food get more expensive, the more I think about expanding and storing


    Can you guys post in the lawn garden section of the coin forum?

    Ren >>

    Humblepie

    I have found power in the mysteries of thought.

    It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.

    Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.

    .
  • mrearlygoldmrearlygold Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭


    << <i>image >>

    WSJ Opine this w/e

    "Washington never learns from its mistakes"....because there are ZERO consequences...just put it all on the taxpayer, ALL of it.

    an easy, good read.





  • << <i>

    << <i>Back to making predictions with the use of charts. Take a look at nasdaq, new developments for the last week.
    With a very, very bearish outlook for the days, and weeks ahead,, it seems that the correction is done, therefor the top has been made.
    There is now A clear impulsive wave structure. Nasdaq is on the way down since Monday of the last week.
    Predictable, the current wave should be done at around 2400, followed by a correction to around 2460-2500.

    After A small correction, fasten your seat belts for the trip down, too also complete a much larger wave that will follow.. >>

    image


    image >>



    Ok you see the gap here in the chart, there are 2 cases to be made. The first is under most circumstances the gap gets closed.

    the gap should close within a few days to a week, just a guess. these gaps don't last long under normal circumstances.

    The other circumstance is when a currency become so devalued, the gap does not close.

    the correction back up to close the gap would be a blessing, wise old bear, but if the dollar continues its free fall to a new all time low, its very possible this gap does not get filled anytime soon.

    we really need to talk about the 10 trillion dollar deficit. >>



    the lawn and garden section is up and running..
    Humblepie

    I have found power in the mysteries of thought.

    It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.

    Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.

    .
  • Hey, I didn't know the coin forum gardening section had some stuff about solar!

    Since I'm here, is anyone doing more with solar ovens? I realize the market is limited and they are only useful during daylight but I was taught about them and built one in grade school. Mine was aluminum foil and a shoe box. Mine was sufficient to heat a hot dog. In days past they could be used to cook a type of bread. Basically stick the loaf in the oven at the start of the day and by dinner it was cooked.

    We had one teacher build a parabolic collector type. On a sunny day it proved a poor place to cook a hot dog. It would instantly burn them.

    Thin film solar is making strides forward. Our US Army is buying tents with low efficiency solar cells in the fabric. They gather enough energy to power a light for the interior of the tent. Over time the solar cells in the tent fabric may prove out as durable and reliable.

    I looked up the company that is using solar collectors to power sterling engines so the electric production continues after dark. It is a private company with two big projects being built. I was sad to see it was purchased by a European company.

    And don't forget the company that is testing pressure pads that generate electricity. The pads are being tested in a Japaense subway station. It seems lots of people stepping on it generates small amounts of electricity. MIT built shoes that could over the course of a day keep a cell phone charged.

    I did research on fuel cells that Manhattan Scientific claimed would power a cell phone. They were supposed to be available for sale by Christmas, in 2004!

    Bottom Line: There is lots of technology out there to replace fossil fuel based energy systems. Currently we have a reason to bother with them. I think we will get there.
    Some call it an accumulation not a collection
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    the lawn and garden section is up and running.. >>



    I don't think that the recently opened "lawn and garden" section of this Economic Predictions thread is OT. Is goes hand in hand with the prediction and reality that food is getting more and more expensive and some are doing and sharing their experiences.

    Us "weekend farmers" are actually producing something made in America!image

    Ren
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭
    But you seem to be advocating decades of darkness and economic depression, times which will prevent us from being able to AFFORD widespread deployment of "cleaner" and "safer" alternatives. Crippled economies don't have much money for R&D.

    It will take a Manhanttan type project from the government to come up with a viable new energy source and I believe we could do it. I highly doubt the alternative would be decades of economic depression, that in itself would be incentive enough to find a viable cheap energy source.


  • << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Back to making predictions with the use of charts. Take a look at nasdaq, new developments for the last week.
    With a very, very bearish outlook for the days, and weeks ahead,, it seems that the correction is done, therefor the top has been made.
    There is now A clear impulsive wave structure. Nasdaq is on the way down since Monday of the last week.
    Predictable, the current wave should be done at around 2400, followed by a correction to around 2460-2500.

    After A small correction, fasten your seat belts for the trip down, too also complete a much larger wave that will follow.. >>

    image


    image >>



    Ok you see the gap here in the chart, there are 2 cases to be made. The first is under most circumstances the gap gets closed.

    the gap should close within a few days to a week, just a guess. these gaps don't last long under normal circumstances.

    The other circumstance is when a currency become so devalued, the gap does not close.

    the correction back up to close the gap would be a blessing, wise old bear, but if the dollar continues its free fall to a new all time low, its very possible this gap does not get filled anytime soon.

    we really need to talk about the 10 trillion dollar deficit. >>



    the lawn and garden section is up and running.. >>



    NOTICE HOW THE GAP WAS FILLED TODAY.. EXPECTING THE DOLLAR TO TANK, THE EURO STILL HAS LEGS UP TO ABOUT 160.00

    GAP FILLED POSSIBILITY THE DOLLAR REACHES 106.35 BEFORE IT TANKS HARD.
    a TRIPLE TOP IN THE MAKING FOR DOLLAR YEN.. a TRIPLE TOP ALREADY FOR THE NASDAQ, AT 2500, SEE CHART.
    Humblepie

    I have found power in the mysteries of thought.

    It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.

    Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.

    .
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gee, I never knew about auction rate securities until reading this.

    I'm still not sure what they are, or why they exist.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • ebizgobroebizgobro Posts: 595 ✭✭✭
    Unfortunately, I am a holder of some auction rate securities and am waiting/hoping to get out.

    I found out after the market auction failures how these work. For the issuers, it is a way to sell a long term bond and finance it with short term interest rates. Short term interest rates are generally lower than long term rates. Closed end funds use them to "goose" up the dividends by issuing preferred shares so that they can leverage the investment.

    As you will read, many times these were sold as "good as cash". After the fact, as many companies and investors have learned that this isn't the case.
  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    Interesting international banking article (short)

    Shouldn't the exchanges start delisting these banks that are acting like they are insolvent?
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    As of today, I am out of stocks and bonds. I am in coins and cash.

    I will probably stay in that mode thru the end of the year at least.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The only stocks I am currently sitting on are on strong producing gold miners in my 401K. Everything else that I "have" to leave the money alone is in the best "cash-like" instrument available, and even those I seriously distrust. Like Bear, the rest is in tangible assets of one sort or another (but no real estate other than my primary residence).

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • fcfc Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭
    is one of the main reasons gold is going up, the fear of inflation,
    being represented unfairly by the price of oil which is being ridden
    up by speculators?

    what i mean is, when the speculation stops, and oil drops 20% in
    just days/weeks/a month will the main thing people see that represents
    inflation disappear suddenly.. and down goes PMs with it?

  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,527 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>is one of the main reasons gold is going up, the fear of inflation,
    being represented unfairly by the price of oil which is being ridden
    up by speculators?

    what i mean is, when the speculation stops, and oil drops 20% in
    just days/weeks/a month will the main thing people see that represents
    inflation disappear suddenly.. and down goes PMs with it? >>



    If oil drops sharply it will take the metals with it at least briefly.

    Don't be too sure that oil is going to drop sharply.
    Tempus fugit.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you look at the breadth of key commodities most or many have increased 300-500% over the past 5-7 years. It just took oil a lot longer to get attention. And gold has been a "laggard" as well due to the constant PPT manipulation (even so it's up from $260 to $900 or +250%). All commodities will experience some severe ups and downs over the next few years...but in a strong overall uptrend. Hedge funds and specs won't make the swings any more enjoyable.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • fcfc Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭


    << <i>If you look at the breadth of key commodities most or many have increased 300-500% over the past 5-7 years. It just took oil a lot longer to get attention. And gold has been a "laggard" as well due to the constant PPT manipulation (even so it's up from $260 to $900 or +250%). All commodities will experience some severe ups and downs over the next few years...but in a strong overall uptrend. Hedge funds and specs won't make the swings any more enjoyable.

    roadrunner >>



    is that the classic defintion of a bubble and nothing like that lasts
    forever?

    i was glad to participate in the massive run up over the last 4 years.
    i am just not sure the next 4 years will result in the same returns.
    buying gold at 900 requires 1800 to double your money! buying at
    450 only required 900 which is what a lot of us expected inflation
    to do to the metal. Having gold at 1800 is a dream to me in you expect
    it to happen in the next 5 years.

    it seems the economy will swing itself back around, after all it is
    strong except for certain sectors, and there should be more likely
    ways to double your money then PMs. bank stocks for example.
    you darn well know one or two of them, 5 years from now, will
    show significant profits and their stock will double from these lows.
    just an example of contrarian thinking that many of us have to start
    doing very soon before the final bubble bursts..

    long term, yes inflation will run up PMs.. but 20 years is not a time
    line i am interested in holding PMs.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The only stocks I am currently sitting on are on strong producing gold miners in my 401K. Everything else that I "have" to leave the money alone is in the best "cash-like" instrument available, and even those I seriously distrust. Like Bear, the rest is in tangible assets of one sort or another (but no real estate other than my primary residence).

    I have one stock, and it's a minor position. Everything else - image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Is that the classic definition of a bubble and nothing like that lasts
    forever?


    I'd call it the definition of a 7 yr run up within a larger bull market time frame with 5-10 yrs to yet play out. I guess you could compare getting out now similar to calling the bull market in stocks that commenced in 1982 to be over by 1995. The biggest moves were yet to come. If you have something in growth stock mutual funds (non-commodities) that will almost certainly out-pace inflation over the next 5 yrs please share those. Whatever bank stocks survive this next phase could certainly prosper but who would be foolish enough to place bullish bets today on GS, JPM, Wachovia, Merrill, and other biggies with horrendous OTC balance sheets? Sure, once they're 5-10 cents on the dollar and recovering they might be great long term values. For now I'll stick with money in the ground (gold producers) as good gold companies seem to be getting harder and harder to find. With new gold finds so scarce, buying other companies is about the only way a Barrick (ABX) can survive and continue to adjust their balance sheet.

    It won't last forever, but a few more years is enough to hold my interest. It will last as long as the dollar is in the dumps and interest rates stay under single digits. It will not be a straight line up as the past 5 years has clearly shown. While metals probably won't triple again from here I'm more interested in staying ahead of the 15-17% yoy increases in M3 expansion. Eventually, inflation will trend towards the money supply increases of the past 12 years (ie >10% yoy average). At some point metals will reach full bubble-popping status, though gold has the best chance imo of maintaining most of its gains as something has to reanchor the final fiat accounting (beannie babies and tulips are already used up)

    roadrunner

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The naked truth is that you have to choose where to put your money in some fashion or another. Whether you like it or not, all assets must be given a home.

    In this environment, like it or not - most everything is at risk. Thank your local Federal Reserve and the big investment bankers. It's not over by a long shot.

    There's not one person here who has it figured out.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bear has plenty of dough tied up in jelly donut futures....probably the safest bet around (coffee and donuts will always be in demand).
    But I have to disagree with him on picnic basket manufacturers which are in decline. We're brown bagging it from here on.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold


  • << <i>The naked truth is that you have to choose where to put your money in some fashion or another. Whether you like it or not, all assets must be given a home.

    In this environment, like it or not - most everything is at risk. Thank your local Federal Reserve and the big investment bankers. It's not over by a long shot.

    There's not one person here who has it figured out.[/q


    There is always a risk.. but thats why you have to manage your money properly..

    I will tell you a good entry point to sell dollars, against the yen.. that time is right this very minute at 106.80 with a 40 pip risk you should sell, and buy back at 105.00 80 % profit...

    image
    Humblepie

    I have found power in the mysteries of thought.

    It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.

    Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.

    .
  • coinlieutenantcoinlieutenant Posts: 9,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I've been meaning to write down my strategy for those interested.

    My money is my brokerage account is about 50% in cash and 50% in stocks...my core is in CHK, ECU, AUY, MFN, SA, and GE. I have a set amount of those shares that I DO NOT TRADE. I dont let these sit idle however. I write covered calls two months out at different percentages ~2%. This is for the miners...and I write them around 6 times per year. This gives about a 12% return to either offset a loss if they go down, or increase my gains. I write them out of the money so if I get optioned I am still up and can always buy back in. ECU is pure speculation so no covered calls are written on them. GE usually gives about a 1/2 percent per month covered call return, but times 6 plus their 3.5% dividend gives a nice stable 6.5% return. Even though GE has been getting hammered I believe in them....and as water becomes a commodity....they are going to fly. AUY also pays a small div.

    I have a rule that I can as much as double up on core on heavy dips for trading. On a major down day, (depends, but around 5%) I will begin buying for trading, looking to get out at 3% profit after commissions. 5% down is a small buy. 9% down over a short period is a medium buy looking for 5% return. Over 12% is a large buy assuming the fundamentals are still intact. Look for a 7% return.

    I regularly trade only two stocks....SKF (ultrashort financials) and GBN (Great Basin Mining). GBN is a stock that is horribly manipulated by the hedge funds, but their MO is pretty predictable. Look for stocks like these that have regular 5% daily swings.

    Also, I do all of this in my margin account, but I dont trade on margin. Big no no for me.

    This strategy has worked well for me and allows for good profits if you can control your emotions. It also is not very time consuming for those that have real jobs....and cant be looking at a screen all during the trading day.

    J
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I will tell you a good entry point to sell dollars, against the yen.. that time is right this very minute at 106.80 with a 40 pip risk you should sell, and buy back at 105.00 80 % profit.

    Fiat currency trading is not my idea of safety. It's the ultimate speculation in something that is someone else's liability. It has no true value and never will. Rather than sell dollars, I'll buy gold since the longer term trend is far more predictable.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    If we assume the reverse of whatever

    a Government official says, what does that

    leave us.

    Treasury Sect...We are for a sound dollar
    MEANING: the dollar will continue to fall.

    Fed Chairman..The risk of a further major economic
    downturn ,has been significantly diminished.
    MEANING: There is no stopping it now. We have thrown
    everything we had at the recession and it appears to be
    gaining strength.

    Talking heads on TV economic shows...We are thru the worst
    of the down turn and now is the generational time to get back
    into stock, especially the financials like BoA ,with a dividend
    rate of 8%.
    MEANING: We hope enough of the poor dumb bastiches buy into
    this cr*p ,until the big boys can fully unload their holdings. It looks
    like these companies will not be able to service these 5-8% payouts
    as they are equal to the profits if not in excess. The economic excess
    is like an iceberg which is, as you all know ,7/8 hidden below the water
    line. Thus what we do not see ,is about to strike the USS TITANIC.

    The economy is still growing ,but at a slowing rate.

    MEANING: With all of our tampering with the economic statistics, we can
    no longer hide the truth that the economy is sinking, inflation is getting
    out of hand and unemployment is far worse then the stated numbers.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage


  • << <i> I will tell you a good entry point to sell dollars, against the yen.. that time is right this very minute at 106.80 with a 40 pip risk you should sell, and buy back at 105.00 80 % profit.

    Fiat currency trading is not my idea of safety. It's the ultimate speculation in something that is someone else's liability. It has no true value and never will. Rather than sell dollars, I'll buy gold since the longer term trend is far more predictable.

    roadrunner >>



    make a predict were gold will be next week?

    or next year?

    Every thing is predictable, there is always a way to predict stocks, and currency strength's, or weakness.
    We are living proof that we can predict price action, we understand things like we could never before.

    Prediction Obama will be the next president.. Why because time tells us its time for a change, because people are fed up with Bush, because people realize the republican party will continue to rape America, and our children's futures..

    we no longer need to be told what to believe, because we have the ability to learn from our mistakes..

    Because Time gives us the ability to look back, and understand were we are heading, and were we been. Because this spiral represents time.

    Because time has moved so far into the future, that we are now ahead of the curve.

    If you choose to buy, and hold then may the luck of the Irish be with you...

    I choose to study the past, and understand the future, with real life variables, not with a hey what ever happens, happens attitude..

    You can guess gold will go up, but in fact it will go down.. you can wait 5 years to make 30% if you choose, but hey more power to the flower. Right on..

    America, and most of the members on this forum cant stand truth. Truth in any other form than there beliefs allow them to..

    In Egypt its called the all seeing eye, the eye of horus, and it represents a Number, and time...

    image
    Humblepie

    I have found power in the mysteries of thought.

    It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.

    Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.

    .
  • fcfc Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭
    image

    neat little pic. simply add the two numbers before it and you get the
    next number. how predictable ;-)
This discussion has been closed.