It's been my experience..............from buying REO's in 75/6, 82, 92-4, ---------that we are in the third or fourth inning of this current game. I hope not but from what I'm seeing in the metro areas that I keep track of......there is still a lot more pain out there.
<< <i>doesn't one think that there will be a "day/week/month/quarter of reckoning" with the US economy, regardless of how much is invested (and outsourced) overseas?
If you watch CNBC, you'd have thought today that the real estate boom was just beginning. Well, if you ignore the 29% to 50% drop in prices, the bottom fishers are all over it (and sales are up, for repo houses in Fla. & Calif.)
What they may not understand is that this tide of bottom fishers that washed in with the tide might well get wiped out without even a blink when the tide rolls back out. >>
There's a long way to go before the bottom is reached here in Fla. Case in point, I bought a house in Wellington, paid 350K just before it went into foreclosure in 2000. Spent 200K in renovations. Property taxes were $3200.00 and Homeowners was roughly 3 Grand as well. When I listed the house for sale I never dreamed it would take a year+ to sell it and I expected to make money. The house sat and sat and sat and finally I sold it at a 100K loss in late 2001.
Fast forward a few years and Zilliow had the house valued at 1.4 Million ( 2005 ). Now I'm sorry but it sat for a year and only had ONE buyer and it was less than half a mill ( actually sold for $450K ) Taxes were showing nearly 25K a year and you better believe that the insurance would have been close to that.
Now, after the bubble has burst, I would be shocked if anyone paid 700K for that house ( about a 50% drop from the height of the bubble) and seriously doubt that it would sell for that. Why? A) who the heck can afford it and taxes and insurance. Whereas it was roughly 3/4 of a point of purchase price as a rule of thumb in factoring insurance just a few years ago, the realtors now will tell you to factor TWO PERCENT. Hence even if a schmuck came and paid 700 G's for that place, they would need to factor in roughly 14-16K a year in taxes now AND homeowners which would closely parallel those taxes.
The government is he ll bent on spending as much money as they can now so they can complain about LOSS of revenues in an effort to increase those numbers again. I saw with my own two eyes these dirtbags laying SOD along I-75 , south of Naples the other day which is alligator alley. SOD?
Here in PC they are blowing more than a Million bucks on SIDEWALKS while we have a major drought going on, 60% or so of ALL real estate listings are either short sales, preforeclosures or foreclosures and at the same time and they are talking about recontituting SEPTIC liquids for drinking water. They are already doing that in parts of Ft Lauderdale.
"Lots more coming while many people whine and snivel for more ."
Yepper, it's tough for people to step down their level of convenience and their standard of living; usually they get pretty mad about it. But on the other hand, it's been pretty easy so far, most folks don't have to bust butt anymore to make a living at what ever they do. Life was good...plenty of food, plenty of money, nice car/suv, plenty of time and a nice place to enjoy it all; truly the land o' plenty. Now, the media would have us believe that the ones that were living this easier life are now strapped to the debt machine, trying to avoid a lethal injection into their credit ability. There's going to be a bunch of very angry people when this thing finally gets into full bloom. Ummm...man, those that have been sucking up public services are going to get bit, across the board. When a large group of people finally come to realize that they and their stuff is owned by the bank and that even they themselves are indeed working for the bank, then anger should evolve into outrage, ala the late 60's?
I love this, this really shows that socialism can make even policemen multi- millionaires!!!!!
“So a Vallejo police sergeant making $150,000 a year can now retire at age 50 and receive an annual pension of $135,000, increased each year for inflation. To put that amount in context, you would need to amass a retirement nest egg equal to about $3.5 million to produce a similar retirement income on your own.”
<< <i>doesn't one think that there will be a "day/week/month/quarter of reckoning" with the US economy, regardless of how much is invested (and outsourced) overseas?
If you watch CNBC, you'd have thought today that the real estate boom was just beginning. Well, if you ignore the 29% to 50% drop in prices, the bottom fishers are all over it (and sales are up, for repo houses in Fla. & Calif.)
What they may not understand is that this tide of bottom fishers that washed in with the tide might well get wiped out without even a blink when the tide rolls back out. >>
There's a long way to go before the bottom is reached here in Fla. Case in point, I bought a house in Wellington, paid 350K just before it went into foreclosure in 2000. Spent 200K in renovations. Property taxes were $3200.00 and Homeowners was roughly 3 Grand as well. When I listed the house for sale I never dreamed it would take a year+ to sell it and I expected to make money. The house sat and sat and sat and finally I sold it at a 100K loss in late 2001.
Fast forward a few years and Zilliow had the house valued at 1.4 Million ( 2005 ). Now I'm sorry but it sat for a year and only had ONE buyer and it was less than half a mill ( actually sold for $450K ) Taxes were showing nearly 25K a year and you better believe that the insurance would have been close to that.
Now, after the bubble has burst, I would be shocked if anyone paid 700K for that house ( about a 50% drop from the height of the bubble) and seriously doubt that it would sell for that. Why? A) who the heck can afford it and taxes and insurance. Whereas it was roughly 3/4 of a point of purchase price as a rule of thumb in factoring insurance just a few years ago, the realtors now will tell you to factor TWO PERCENT. Hence even if a schmuck came and paid 700 G's for that place, they would need to factor in roughly 14-16K a year in taxes now AND homeowners which would closely parallel those taxes.
The government is he ll bent on spending as much money as they can now so they can complain about LOSS of revenues in an effort to increase those numbers again. I saw with my own two eyes these dirtbags laying SOD along I-75 , south of Naples the other day which is alligator alley. SOD?
Here in PC they are blowing more than a Million bucks on SIDEWALKS while we have a major drought going on, 60% or so of ALL real estate listings are either short sales, preforeclosures or foreclosures and at the same time and they are talking about recontituting SEPTIC liquids for drinking water. They are already doing that in parts of Ft Lauderdale.
This ones got a ways to go before it hits bottom. >>
where i live....people (consortiums) buy/bought 50 y/o ranch style homes and then scrape them and build "statement' homes on spec...this was rampant from 02-late 07. One sits caddy-corner to me unsold unrented for about 24 months, another a few houses away...ran outta $$$ and the house sits...finished...but only for weather. another a few blocks away was remodeled and had a initial tag of 4Mill....it's some of the time.
funny money of low interest rates and nutty financing created the housing boom as far as RE values increasing. construction went ballistic....just peek at a commuter zone in the SF Bay Area called 'Mountain House"....a ton of infrastructure went into that development, now it's almost a ghost town...Vallejo was the last frontier for "cheap" SF Bay Area housing....some RE investors are saying it's a great time to buy because the prices are so low...well they are going to go even lower.
you are right but i think this will take YEARS to absorb, i just hope Oh'Bama doesn't tax us to death trying to "fix it"
<< <i>I love this, this really shows that socialism can make even policemen multi- millionaires!!!!!
“So a Vallejo police sergeant making $150,000 a year can now retire at age 50 and receive an annual pension of $135,000, increased each year for inflation. To put that amount in context, you would need to amass a retirement nest egg equal to about $3.5 million to produce a similar retirement income on your own.” >>
this is Scandanavia, Holland, etc to a tea
street sweepers...manual, like push brooms will make as much as a pediatrician in a "perfect" society.
Unless Government spending is put on a pay as you spend diet,
it matters little on taxes are raised or money is borrowed. The
Government is used to bribbing segments of the population, including
business, in order to gain support and remain in power. Such a policy
eventually comes home to roost in distorting the Nations economy as well ' as the stability of the dollar. If and when the National Bueget is placed on a
strict diet, the squealing will make the Nation sound like a pig farm. It will
take a decade of such prudence and a rapidly expanding tax base, to repair
some of the serious damage done to the economy over the past decade. Even
If the War in Iraq were to end tomorrow, it will take the same amount of money
to rebuild and reequip the army, take care of the ballooning number of long term
injured troopers as well as expand the number of combat battalions. It is going
to take a president with iron will and a congress with a renewed sense of
responsibility.I am afraid that things will get worse before we begin to see any
measure of improvement. As a start, we must begin to see prudent control and
I think we're starting to see the first major wave of backlash against ridiculously generous public pensions. Whether that will eventually be enough to reform them remains to be seen, given the clout of public employees' unions.
The increasing majority of private sector folks who do *not* get pensions will get tired of paying more and more tax to protect the benefits of other people which they can't get themselves.
<< <i>I think we're starting to see the first major wave of backlash against ridiculously generous public pensions. Whether that will eventually be enough to reform them remains to be seen, given the clout of public employees' unions.
The increasing majority of private sector folks who do *not* get pensions will get tired of paying more and more tax to protect the benefits of other people which they can't get themselves. >>
The pension system for Federal employees was revised in 1984. All they get now is Social Security and whatever they get from their TSP (Thrift Savings Plan which is the federal version of the 401K plan). Compared to the private sector, their pension is not that great when you consider that many are well educated profesionals. If you think federal employees are under worked and over paid why don't you get a federal job?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Massachusetts is a state over ran by silly pensions that the workers know how to maximize in their last year of work. Like saving a ton of personal/sick days and taking them as a lump sum payout to pad your last years wages which your pension is based on.
can some of the experts input some more detailed information to the trade deficit.
this is the way i see it, today there was talk about Vietnam not devaluing the dong, the reason it was called upon for a devaluation was attributed to the trade deficit.
This makes perfect sense. We in America have the biggest deficits, therefore all that is happening in the market can be attributed to America them self taking the initiative to devalue the dollar..
question, how much more do we have to devalue the dollar to avoid its total collapse? question what is the current deficit? is it over 3 trillion dollars?
info from 2006, for your consideration for the current economic downfall.
US Trade Deficit Soars to Record BBC News
Tuesday 14 March 2006
The US current account deficit, the nation's broadest measure of trade, reached a record high in 2005.
According to the Commerce Department, the shortfall, which includes trade figures as well as money flows, surged 20% to $804.9bn ( 463bn) last year.
The deficit was 6.4% of the total value of the US economy, the worlds largest.
Analysts say that the imbalance in the current account may prompt problems, as investors try to limit their exposure to the US and a drop in asset values.
Chinese Deficit
While the US is posting steady and healthy economic growth, there is a worry that problems are being stored up.
Analysts have pointed to a bubble in the housing market, reluctance among consumers to spend, the threat of a weaker dollar and an inability to compete with lower-cost Asian manufacturers.
"The current account deficit has grown to a point where it arguably cannot be corrected by US action alone," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York.
Many US politicians blame the growing trade deficit with China for broader economic problems, arguing that China has deliberately suppressed the value of its currency to sell goods abroad cheaply.
Political Unease
Speaking on Tuesday, US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said that if China did not take action on currency reform it would encourage those in the US seeking to put up "protectionist barriers".
Support for legislation which would slap tariffs of more than 25% on certain Chinese goods if Beijing does not further revalue the yuan is thought to be gaining support among sections of Congress.
I read this, and I point out an important factor I see. China, and japan have very very low interests rates on there dollars. This has always been good for them, for growth. Are they wrong to do so? Consider they have always done this, they are a communist country.
We can see clearly The USA had followed suit but, it will not be enough in my opinion to save us money. Lower rates, devalue the dollar, pray we can pay our dept... we are at 2 percent interest rates, but that is to little to late, unless the Chinese currency goes much much higher.
This is my line of thinking, although may not be entirely correct ?. learning from the past Any added information will help us see the big picture for our future.
the truth is manifested, and America is blinded by the truth. how long will you allow yourself to be oblivious to the truth?
As of 2005.. This astounding amount is 40% of GDP and shows no signs of slowing. To put this $4 trillion in perspective, the comparable base of what the whole country is worth is only $48.5 trillion. This total value of the nation is the sum of all real estate, all equities and such personal possessions as cars and furniture. So we are approaching having given away 10% of our net worth as collateral for importing the oil, cars and computers we use for our life style.
so far the dollar has devalued over 40% so 20 percent more would be about right, thats 40 cents on the dollar.
what is the current dept?
Foreigners have funded our housing boom and provided enough credit that the growing federal deficits have not driven interest rates up. Much is simplified out of the above explanation, but the value is that we can see the biggest and most important money flows.
The US credit market matches the amount borrowed and lent. The accumulated foreign contribution of $4 trillion of lending (investment) has provided the credit for the borrowing by the US government whose debt held by the public is now similar in size to the accumulated foreign loans to the US. The chart below shows the size of Federal government debt and the foreign accumulated current account debt to point out that foreigners are funding credit at comparable levels:
The current account deficit is now unsustainable at 6% of GDP. Since imports are bigger than exports, if they grow at a similar rate, the deficit will grow. The accumulation of debt means that we have to pay increasing interest on the debt making the balance worse. Historically, as the US GDP grows 1%, the current account deficit has grown 2%. But foreigners grow their CA by only 1% for a 1% of GDP growth. The conclusion is that the CA will get worse.
This is back in 2005, the generation of coin collectors are to blame. They should have done something about government then, they still refuse to do anything... For the most part blame it on bear... Since we are digging up the past may as well dig it all up..
ex-Secretary of Treasury views the deficit as dangerous
suggested that foreign debt holders might get the rip-them-off strategy of letting the dollar drop so much that our debts to them evaporate. He implied that there could be a serious calamity in financial markets.. Operation underway...
# Is it too big? At 6% of GDP it is bigger than the level that brought Argentina into collapse. Mexico got to 8% before its last collapse. The US absorbs 75% of the world's export surplus. A G7 country has never had such a big deficit before. The conclusion is that 6% is already too big.
will America end up like Russia, Mexico, and Argentina? THIS TAKES US BACK TO THE 2 PERCENT CARRY TRADE. oN CNBC BERNAKY SAID THE YEN HAS THE MOST TO LOOSE? WHY NOT THE DOLLAR? MORE LIES...
EVERY ONE WILL GET BURNT TODAY..
<< <i># "We will rip the foreigners off." We will depreciate the dollar enough that they will be left with less than they paid for. In fact, this has been happening. The foreign debt to GDP (nominal) ratio hasn't been expanding much. The weaker dollar means that the purchasing power of the accumulated foreign debt is not growing so rapidly. The argument has short-term merit, but the obvious flaw is that foreigners can see what is happening and may not allow it to continue. An expectation of a weaker dollar would drive the dollar down even more. >>
Three years later this is exactly happened, after the non farm survey, it weaken the dollar further.. NOT THE YEN....
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
Oil is up because the dollar is falling like a rock. Oil and gold are priced worldwide in dollars. A dollar is a green piece of paper printed at will with no backing. Oil takes millions of years to create, then it needs to be found, extracted, shipped, refined, and distributed. Frankly, I am amazed oil doesn't cost $1000 per barrel. We complain about the price of oil while we sip our $4 lattes from Starbucks that are 99% water which falls from the sky, and coffee which grows back every year.
The weak economic numbers mean the Fed is boxed in; raise rates get Depression, lower rates get stagflation. Pick you poison.
<< <i>Oil is up because the dollar is falling like a rock. Oil and gold are priced worldwide in dollars. A dollar is a green piece of paper printed at will with no backing. Oil takes millions of years to create, then it needs to be found, extracted, shipped, refined, and distributed. Frankly, I am amazed oil doesn't cost $1000 per barrel. We complain about the price of oil while we sip our $4 lattes from Starbucks that are 99% water which falls from the sky, and coffee which grows back every year.
The weak economic numbers mean the Fed is boxed in; raise rates get Depression, lower rates get stagflation. Pick you poison. >>
Oil and gold was up last night, Thats why i new the dollar would fall today, and the euro would rally further.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
We complain about the price of oil while we sip our $4 lattes from Starbucks that are 99% water which falls from the sky, and coffee which grows back every year.
That's a very good point. Is $4 for a gallon of gas really a lot of money? I think people get accustomed to "old" prices, and are always shocked when they rise. It's like the old lady that I lived next door to as a kid. I would mow her lawn, and she'd give me $1. That wasn't much money even for a 10 year old in 1972. But it always came with a lecture about how "a man used to work a whole day for $1". To her, it still had that old value. Of course, I wish this had dawned on me when silver was $5 an ounce. I mean come on, an ounce of silver for a five dollar bill?!!!
<< <i>We complain about the price of oil while we sip our $4 lattes from Starbucks that are 99% water which falls from the sky, and coffee which grows back every year.
That's a very good point. Is $4 for a gallon of gas really a lot of money? I think people get accustomed to "old" prices, and are always shocked when they rise. It's like the old lady that I lived next door to as a kid. I would mow her lawn, and she'd give me $1. That wasn't much money even for a 10 year old in 1972. But it always came with a lecture about how "a man used to work a whole day for $1". To her, it still had that old value. Of course, I wish this had dawned on me when silver was $5 an ounce. I mean come on, an ounce of silver for a five dollar bill?!!! >>
Um, talk about your apples and oranges here: I only buy 1 cup of $4 coffee per day...I use 1 tank of gas per week. For there to be equity, I'd have to drink 5 cups of coffee per day to equal the gas consumption ($80 to fill my frickin' tank!!).
I can guarantee you I won't be buying any extra cups of coffee with gas so high. In fact, I might have to stop buying coffee at all.
<< <i>[It makes no difference the reason, for it is the result in which we care. >>
Actually it does matter, because oil futures are traded as securities which can be subjected to securities law. For example, right now you can buy oil futures on margin with as little as a 5% equity position (compared to 50% for stocks). Changes in margin requirements can change demand for futures.
<< <i>Oil up $10.50 today!!! I believe we are witnessing the cure for the global excess liquidity problem. >>
I believe we're seeing demand for oil futures, not oil itself. >>
We may be seeing the blowoff. They typically happen before nice, long, steep corrections. Ah well, one can always hope. >>
Right and we'll have a Libertarian in the white house who will slash spending and stop the RACE down the socialist path thereby creating an economic boom, all while China REVERSES itself and decides that capitalism isn't such a good thing after all and returns to more heavy handed socialism.
<< <i>[It makes no difference the reason, for it is the result in which we care. >>
Actually it does matter, because oil futures are traded as securities which can be subjected to securities law. For example, right now you can buy oil futures on margin with as little as a 5% equity position (compared to 50% for stocks). Changes in margin requirements can change demand for futures. >>
This still has no impact on current price. The price is what it is, no matter how it got there. The sustainabilty of the actions/events that brought about these prices is another matter and will have an even more resultant impact depending on how long prices remain high.
Monetary destruction----a phrase you will hear more often in the months ahead.
The chickens are coming home to roost in a small way today. It will get worse I am afraid.
If you want a scapegoat, here they are (in no particular order):
Politicians Regulators Lobbyists Central Bankers Investment Bankers Hedge Funds Joe Six Pack School Boards Satan Mortgage Brokers Appraisers Select CEOs Foreign buyers of debt Inclusively all that looked the other way as transparency faded to black and regulation fell by the way side.
Mostly the US. China has significant amounts of coal as well. We're just running low on time to react. These high oil prices will start a flow coming from places that never had production before but we need a lot more cushion than we have in case of a worst case scenario. It takes a lot of energy to build anything. The strategic reserve will only keep us going six months and you can even get permits for a powerplant in that lenght of time, much less build one.
We have to move forward. Moving back is not an option.
Even if there were no military threat to oil production and shipment, there is a very real chance that production might decline more rapidly than forecast. Only three or four years ago there were just a few crackpots who even believed that oil production might decrease in the foreseeable future and now some pretty bright people think it might be starting.
Military threats increase exponentially when something is in short supply.
Some people might underestimate the danger posed by some of the smaller countries in the Mideast but they pose a real risk and have relatively little to lose.
The only financial pundit on CNBC TV worth listening to is Rick Santelli. He said it best today:
"It's all about oil. Is that headline [about Israel] moving oil? All's I can say is, we have perfect soil to grow higher energy prices based on supply and demand. And these things are going to keep growing. Now we can look at all the things like the line out of Israel, or what the senate is doing, or what the congress is doing, what the speculators are doing, but at the end of the day this market has been a linear 45 degree rally for years -- and that screams at something going on there on supply and demand -- that everybody chooses to ignore because there is no quick fix."
I understand the person who spoke about Peak Oil actually meant oil that is easily pumped from the ground.
Which is exactly what the Saudis have. My numbers a a few years old but if I remember this right in 2004 it costs the Saudis $11 a barrel after the oil was loaded on a tanker! I looked and couldn't find a source. The eia website in 2005 assumed it cost the Saudis $19 per barrel.
The oil [AKA tar] sands in Canada cost $80 a barrel to extract. They have a lot of oil to pull out now that it is profitable.
I wonder how much the oil in shale in Western Colorado costs to extract. Just like the Oil sands in Canada, I wonder if enough production can be ramped up in the near term.
Being Active Duty in the AF, other posters are right, it wouldn't take much for many countries to really send shocks through the system of global commerce.
Too bad we are very slowly converting trial, test and prototype solar and ocean power production systems into larger scale items.
On a bright side, Wind power is not only growing very rapidly, the companies involved cannot hire qualified workers fast enough. Still Wind power represents a very small portion of electricity needs.
On the other hand, I wonder how many of the fabulously wealthy countries today with huge oil money are diversifying their economies. When oil dries up they will be way up a creek. It appears the Saudis will be furthest up said creek.
Mostly the US. China has significant amounts of coal as well. We're just running low on time to react. These high oil prices will start a flow coming from places that never had production before but we need a lot more cushion than we have in case of a worst case scenario. It takes a lot of energy to build anything. The strategic reserve will only keep us going six months and you can even get permits for a powerplant in that lenght of time, much less build one.
We have to move forward. Moving back is not an option.
Even if there were no military threat to oil production and shipment, there is a very real chance that production might decline more rapidly than forecast. Only three or four years ago there were just a few crackpots who even believed that oil production might decrease in the foreseeable future and now some pretty bright people think it might be starting. >>
Comments
I knew it would happen.
It's been my experience..............from buying REO's in 75/6, 82, 92-4, ---------that we are in the third or fourth inning of this current game. I hope not but from what I'm seeing in the metro areas that I keep track of......there is still a lot more pain out there.
<< <i>doesn't one think that there will be a "day/week/month/quarter of reckoning" with the US economy, regardless of how much is invested (and outsourced) overseas?
If you watch CNBC, you'd have thought today that the real estate boom was just beginning. Well, if you ignore the 29% to 50% drop in prices, the bottom fishers are all over it (and sales are up, for repo houses in Fla. & Calif.)
What they may not understand is that this tide of bottom fishers that washed in with the tide might well get wiped out without even a blink when the tide rolls back out. >>
There's a long way to go before the bottom is reached here in Fla. Case in point, I bought a house in Wellington, paid 350K just before it went into foreclosure in 2000. Spent 200K in renovations. Property taxes were $3200.00 and Homeowners was roughly 3 Grand as well. When I listed the house for sale I never dreamed it would take a year+ to sell it and I expected to make money. The house sat and sat and sat and finally I sold it at a 100K loss in late 2001.
Fast forward a few years and Zilliow had the house valued at 1.4 Million ( 2005 ). Now I'm sorry but it sat for a year and only had ONE buyer and it was less than half a mill ( actually sold for $450K ) Taxes were showing nearly 25K a year and you better believe that the insurance would have been close to that.
Now, after the bubble has burst, I would be shocked if anyone paid 700K for that house ( about a 50% drop from the height of the bubble) and seriously doubt that it would sell for that. Why? A) who the heck can afford it and
The government is he ll bent on spending as much money as they can now so they can complain about LOSS of revenues in an effort to increase those numbers again. I saw with my own two eyes these dirtbags laying SOD along I-75 , south of Naples the other day which is alligator alley. SOD?
Here in PC they are blowing more than a Million bucks on SIDEWALKS while we have a major drought going on, 60% or so of ALL real estate listings are either short sales, preforeclosures or foreclosures and at the same time and they are talking about recontituting SEPTIC liquids for drinking water. They are already doing that in parts of Ft Lauderdale.
This ones got a ways to go before it hits bottom.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Yepper, it's tough for people to step down their level of convenience and their standard of living; usually they get pretty mad about it. But on the other hand, it's been pretty easy so far, most folks don't have to bust butt anymore to make a living at what ever they do. Life was good...plenty of food, plenty of money, nice car/suv, plenty of time and a nice place to enjoy it all; truly the land o' plenty. Now, the media would have us believe that the ones that were living this easier life are now strapped to the debt machine, trying to avoid a lethal injection into their credit ability. There's going to be a bunch of very angry people when this thing finally gets into full bloom. Ummm...man, those that have been sucking up public services are going to get bit, across the board. When a large group of people finally come to realize that they and their stuff is owned by the bank and that even they themselves are indeed working for the bank, then anger should evolve into outrage, ala the late 60's?
Cash is king.
“So a Vallejo police sergeant making $150,000 a year can now retire at age 50 and receive an annual pension of $135,000, increased each year for inflation. To put that amount in context, you would need to amass a retirement nest egg equal to about $3.5 million to produce a similar retirement income on your own.”
<< <i>
<< <i>doesn't one think that there will be a "day/week/month/quarter of reckoning" with the US economy, regardless of how much is invested (and outsourced) overseas?
If you watch CNBC, you'd have thought today that the real estate boom was just beginning. Well, if you ignore the 29% to 50% drop in prices, the bottom fishers are all over it (and sales are up, for repo houses in Fla. & Calif.)
What they may not understand is that this tide of bottom fishers that washed in with the tide might well get wiped out without even a blink when the tide rolls back out. >>
There's a long way to go before the bottom is reached here in Fla. Case in point, I bought a house in Wellington, paid 350K just before it went into foreclosure in 2000. Spent 200K in renovations. Property taxes were $3200.00 and Homeowners was roughly 3 Grand as well. When I listed the house for sale I never dreamed it would take a year+ to sell it and I expected to make money. The house sat and sat and sat and finally I sold it at a 100K loss in late 2001.
Fast forward a few years and Zilliow had the house valued at 1.4 Million ( 2005 ). Now I'm sorry but it sat for a year and only had ONE buyer and it was less than half a mill ( actually sold for $450K ) Taxes were showing nearly 25K a year and you better believe that the insurance would have been close to that.
Now, after the bubble has burst, I would be shocked if anyone paid 700K for that house ( about a 50% drop from the height of the bubble) and seriously doubt that it would sell for that. Why? A) who the heck can afford it and
The government is he ll bent on spending as much money as they can now so they can complain about LOSS of revenues in an effort to increase those numbers again. I saw with my own two eyes these dirtbags laying SOD along I-75 , south of Naples the other day which is alligator alley. SOD?
Here in PC they are blowing more than a Million bucks on SIDEWALKS while we have a major drought going on, 60% or so of ALL real estate listings are either short sales, preforeclosures or foreclosures and at the same time and they are talking about recontituting SEPTIC liquids for drinking water. They are already doing that in parts of Ft Lauderdale.
This ones got a ways to go before it hits bottom. >>
where i live....people (consortiums) buy/bought 50 y/o ranch style homes and then scrape them and build "statement' homes on spec...this was rampant from 02-late 07. One sits caddy-corner to me unsold unrented for about 24 months, another a few houses away...ran outta $$$ and the house sits...finished...but only for weather. another a few blocks away was remodeled and had a initial tag of 4Mill....it's some of the time.
funny money of low interest rates and nutty financing created the housing boom as far as RE values increasing. construction went ballistic....just peek at a commuter zone in the SF Bay Area called 'Mountain House"....a ton of infrastructure went into that development, now it's almost a ghost town...Vallejo was the last frontier for "cheap" SF Bay Area housing....some RE investors are saying it's a great time to buy because the prices are so low...well they are going to go even lower.
you are right but i think this will take YEARS to absorb, i just hope Oh'Bama doesn't tax us to death trying to "fix it"
<< <i>Maybe Barbara Boxer and Nancy-Baby could donate their Congressional Pensions to the cause! >>
thank you for leaving lady Diane out of this, probably the only sane US senator from CA we've had
<< <i>I love this, this really shows that socialism can make even policemen multi- millionaires!!!!!
“So a Vallejo police sergeant making $150,000 a year can now retire at age 50 and receive an annual pension of $135,000, increased each year for inflation. To put that amount in context, you would need to amass a retirement nest egg equal to about $3.5 million to produce a similar retirement income on your own.” >>
this is Scandanavia, Holland, etc to a tea
street sweepers...manual, like push brooms will make as much as a pediatrician in a "perfect" society.
it matters little on taxes are raised or money is borrowed. The
Government is used to bribbing segments of the population, including
business, in order to gain support and remain in power. Such a policy
eventually comes home to roost in distorting the Nations economy as well
'
as the stability of the dollar. If and when the National Bueget is placed on a
strict diet, the squealing will make the Nation sound like a pig farm. It will
take a decade of such prudence and a rapidly expanding tax base, to repair
some of the serious damage done to the economy over the past decade. Even
If the War in Iraq were to end tomorrow, it will take the same amount of money
to rebuild and reequip the army, take care of the ballooning number of long term
injured troopers as well as expand the number of combat battalions. It is going
to take a president with iron will and a congress with a renewed sense of
responsibility.I am afraid that things will get worse before we begin to see any
measure of improvement. As a start, we must begin to see prudent control and
regulation ,of banks, insurance companies, accounting methods, reporting
methods. Rampant speculation in commodities must be limited to legitimate
company requirements to assure stable future pricing of same for industrial
purposeds and not for quick buck purposes.Airline must be reregulated in order
to assure safety, service and orderly conduct of this essential National service.
We must return to a sound and accurate system of calculating inflation, unemployment
and all other Governmental statistical measurements upon which investment
capital depends.
Industry does not like regulation, but when they fail to show the dicipline and responsible self
policing that they always promise but never deliver, then Government rules and regulations are
required. Corporate abuses in the Drug Industry, Financial Industry, Stock Market, Accounting
Industry among others, becomes mandatory.
Camelot
The increasing majority of private sector folks who do *not* get pensions will get tired of paying more and more tax to protect the benefits of other people which they can't get themselves.
to freeze such giveaways and limit future benefits to
more affordable levels.
Camelot
<< <i>I think we're starting to see the first major wave of backlash against ridiculously generous public pensions. Whether that will eventually be enough to reform them remains to be seen, given the clout of public employees' unions.
The increasing majority of private sector folks who do *not* get pensions will get tired of paying more and more tax to protect the benefits of other people which they can't get themselves. >>
The pension system for Federal employees was revised in 1984. All they get now is Social Security and whatever they get from their TSP (Thrift Savings Plan which is the federal version of the 401K plan). Compared to the private sector, their pension is not that great when you consider that many are well educated profesionals. If you think federal employees are under worked and over paid why don't you get a federal job?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>If you think federal employees are under worked and over paid why don't you get a federal job? >>
Why don't you stop putting words into my mouth?
I never said they were underworked and overpaid. I merely said that I'm perceiving an increased backlash against some of these public pensions.
This was not a rant about civil servants, so you might want to ratchet down the oversensitivity a little bit.
[Edit to add: And please do tell where I said anything about *federal* employees specifically.]
know how to maximize in their last year of work. Like saving a ton
of personal/sick days and taking them as a lump sum payout to
pad your last years wages which your pension is based on.
Thankfully i moved out of the hell hole named MA.
(yes the brandy and advil...)
THE SECRET BAILOUT OF JPMORGAN:
this is the way i see it, today there was talk about Vietnam not devaluing the dong, the reason it was called upon for a devaluation was attributed to the trade deficit.
This makes perfect sense. We in America have the biggest deficits, therefore all that is happening in the market can be attributed to America them self taking the initiative to devalue the dollar..
question, how much more do we have to devalue the dollar to avoid its total collapse?
question what is the current deficit? is it over 3 trillion dollars?
info from 2006, for your consideration for the current economic downfall.
US Trade Deficit Soars to Record
BBC News
Tuesday 14 March 2006
The US current account deficit, the nation's broadest measure of trade, reached a record high in 2005.
According to the Commerce Department, the shortfall, which includes trade figures as well as money flows, surged 20% to $804.9bn ( 463bn) last year.
The deficit was 6.4% of the total value of the US economy, the worlds largest.
Analysts say that the imbalance in the current account may prompt problems, as investors try to limit their exposure to the US and a drop in asset values.
Chinese Deficit
While the US is posting steady and healthy economic growth, there is a worry that problems are being stored up.
Analysts have pointed to a bubble in the housing market, reluctance among consumers to spend, the threat of a weaker dollar and an inability to compete with lower-cost Asian manufacturers.
"The current account deficit has grown to a point where it arguably cannot be corrected by US action alone," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York.
Many US politicians blame the growing trade deficit with China for broader economic problems, arguing that China has deliberately suppressed the value of its currency to sell goods abroad cheaply.
Political Unease
Speaking on Tuesday, US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said that if China did not take action on currency reform it would encourage those in the US seeking to put up "protectionist barriers".
Support for legislation which would slap tariffs of more than 25% on certain Chinese goods if Beijing does not further revalue the yuan is thought to be gaining support among sections of Congress.
I read this, and I point out an important factor I see.
China, and japan have very very low interests rates on there dollars. This has always been good for them, for growth.
Are they wrong to do so? Consider they have always done this, they are a communist country.
We can see clearly The USA had followed suit but, it will not be enough in my opinion to save us money.
Lower rates, devalue the dollar, pray we can pay our dept...
we are at 2 percent interest rates, but that is to little to late, unless the Chinese currency goes much much higher.
This is my line of thinking, although may not be entirely correct ?. learning from the past Any added information will help us see the big picture for our future.
the truth is manifested, and America is blinded by the truth. how long will you allow yourself to be oblivious to the truth?
As of 2005..
This astounding amount is 40% of GDP and shows no signs of slowing. To put this $4 trillion in perspective, the comparable base of what the whole country is worth is only $48.5 trillion. This total value of the nation is the sum of all real estate, all equities and such personal possessions as cars and furniture. So we are approaching having given away 10% of our net worth as collateral for importing the oil, cars and computers we use for our life style.
so far the dollar has devalued over 40% so 20 percent more would be about right, thats 40 cents on the dollar.
what is the current dept?
Foreigners have funded our housing boom and provided enough credit that the growing federal deficits have not driven interest rates up. Much is simplified out of the above explanation, but the value is that we can see the biggest and most important money flows.
The US credit market matches the amount borrowed and lent. The accumulated foreign contribution of $4 trillion of lending (investment) has provided the credit for the borrowing by the US government whose debt held by the public is now similar in size to the accumulated foreign loans to the US. The chart below shows the size of Federal government debt and the foreign accumulated current account debt to point out that foreigners are funding credit at comparable levels:
The current account deficit is now unsustainable at 6% of GDP. Since imports are bigger than exports, if they grow at a similar rate, the deficit will grow. The accumulation of debt means that we have to pay increasing interest on the debt making the balance worse. Historically, as the US GDP grows 1%, the current account deficit has grown 2%. But foreigners grow their CA by only 1% for a 1% of GDP growth. The conclusion is that the CA will get worse.
This is back in 2005, the generation of coin collectors are to blame. They should have done something about government then, they still refuse to do anything... For the most part blame it on bear... Since we are digging up the past may as well dig it all up..
ex-Secretary of Treasury views the deficit as dangerous
suggested that foreign debt holders might get the rip-them-off strategy of letting the dollar drop so much that our debts to them evaporate. He implied that there could be a serious calamity in financial markets.. Operation underway...
# Is it too big? At 6% of GDP it is bigger than the level that brought Argentina into collapse. Mexico got to 8% before its last collapse. The US absorbs 75% of the world's export surplus. A G7 country has never had such a big deficit before. The conclusion is that 6% is already too big.
will America end up like Russia, Mexico, and Argentina?
THIS TAKES US BACK TO THE 2 PERCENT CARRY TRADE.
oN CNBC BERNAKY SAID THE YEN HAS THE MOST TO LOOSE? WHY NOT THE DOLLAR? MORE LIES...
EVERY ONE WILL GET BURNT TODAY..
<< <i># "We will rip the foreigners off." We will depreciate the dollar enough that they will be left with less than they paid for. In fact, this has been happening. The foreign debt to GDP (nominal) ratio hasn't been expanding much. The weaker dollar means that the purchasing power of the accumulated foreign debt is not growing so rapidly. The argument has short-term merit, but the obvious flaw is that foreigners can see what is happening and may not allow it to continue. An expectation of a weaker dollar would drive the dollar down even more. >>
Three years later this is exactly happened, after the non farm survey, it weaken the dollar further..
NOT THE YEN....
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
The weak economic numbers mean the Fed is boxed in; raise rates get Depression, lower rates get stagflation. Pick you poison.
<< <i>Oil is up because the dollar is falling like a rock. >>
The dollar is down only 1% against most currencies today. Oil is up 4%. It's a lot more than just the dollar.
<< <i>Oil is up because the dollar is falling like a rock. Oil and gold are priced worldwide in dollars. A dollar is a green piece of paper printed at will with no backing. Oil takes millions of years to create, then it needs to be found, extracted, shipped, refined, and distributed. Frankly, I am amazed oil doesn't cost $1000 per barrel. We complain about the price of oil while we sip our $4 lattes from Starbucks that are 99% water which falls from the sky, and coffee which grows back every year.
The weak economic numbers mean the Fed is boxed in; raise rates get Depression, lower rates get stagflation. Pick you poison. >>
Oil and gold was up last night, Thats why i new the dollar would fall today, and the euro would rally further.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
That's a very good point. Is $4 for a gallon of gas really a lot of money? I think people get accustomed to "old" prices, and are always shocked when they rise. It's like the old lady that I lived next door to as a kid. I would mow her lawn, and she'd give me $1. That wasn't much money even for a 10 year old in 1972. But it always came with a lecture about how "a man used to work a whole day for $1". To her, it still had that old value. Of course, I wish this had dawned on me when silver was $5 an ounce. I mean come on, an ounce of silver for a five dollar bill?!!!
ps to thestig...i like your input but most of it crosses a few feet above my synapses
<< <i>We complain about the price of oil while we sip our $4 lattes from Starbucks that are 99% water which falls from the sky, and coffee which grows back every year.
That's a very good point. Is $4 for a gallon of gas really a lot of money? I think people get accustomed to "old" prices, and are always shocked when they rise. It's like the old lady that I lived next door to as a kid. I would mow her lawn, and she'd give me $1. That wasn't much money even for a 10 year old in 1972. But it always came with a lecture about how "a man used to work a whole day for $1". To her, it still had that old value. Of course, I wish this had dawned on me when silver was $5 an ounce. I mean come on, an ounce of silver for a five dollar bill?!!! >>
Um, talk about your apples and oranges here: I only buy 1 cup of $4 coffee per day...I use 1 tank of gas per week. For there to be equity, I'd have to drink 5 cups of coffee per day to equal the gas consumption ($80 to fill my frickin' tank!!).
I can guarantee you I won't be buying any extra cups of coffee with gas so high. In fact, I might have to stop buying coffee at all.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Oil up $10.50 today!!! I believe we are witnessing the cure for the global excess liquidity problem. >>
I believe we're seeing demand for oil futures, not oil itself.
<< <i>
<< <i>Oil up $10.50 today!!! I believe we are witnessing the cure for the global excess liquidity problem. >>
I believe we're seeing demand for oil futures, not oil itself. >>
It makes no difference the reason, for it is the result in which we care.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
American equity in there homes at lowest point since 1945, Americans
losing their homes still increasing but at a slower rate, inflation measured
by the same criteria as Europe is in excess of 7%, threat of war in middle east
Price of gas continues to increase, airlines in danger of all closing down due
to fuel cost. Well, thats enough to cheer up any masochist.
When the economy goes down the toilet, will it swirl clockwise?
Camelot
PS. sipping 12 year old black label whiskey..
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>[It makes no difference the reason, for it is the result in which we care. >>
Actually it does matter, because oil futures are traded as securities which can be subjected to securities law. For example, right now you can buy oil futures on margin with as little as a 5% equity position (compared to 50% for stocks). Changes in margin requirements can change demand for futures.
<< <i>
<< <i>Oil up $10.50 today!!! I believe we are witnessing the cure for the global excess liquidity problem. >>
I believe we're seeing demand for oil futures, not oil itself. >>
We may be seeing the blowoff. They typically happen before nice, long, steep corrections. Ah well, one can always hope.
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Oil up $10.50 today!!! I believe we are witnessing the cure for the global excess liquidity problem. >>
I believe we're seeing demand for oil futures, not oil itself. >>
We may be seeing the blowoff. They typically happen before nice, long, steep corrections. Ah well, one can always hope. >>
Right and we'll have a Libertarian in the white house who will slash spending and stop the RACE down the socialist path thereby creating an economic boom, all while China REVERSES itself and decides that capitalism isn't such a good thing after all and returns to more heavy handed socialism.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Interesting question...
<< <i>"When the economy goes down the toilet, will it swirl clockwise?"
Interesting question... counter clockwise, depending what side of the Galactic plain your on..
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>
<< <i>[It makes no difference the reason, for it is the result in which we care. >>
Actually it does matter, because oil futures are traded as securities which can be subjected to securities law. For example, right now you can buy oil futures on margin with as little as a 5% equity position (compared to 50% for stocks). Changes in margin requirements can change demand for futures. >>
This still has no impact on current price. The price is what it is, no matter how it got there. The sustainabilty of the actions/events that brought about these prices is another matter and will have an even more resultant impact depending on how long prices remain high.
Monetary destruction----a phrase you will hear more often in the months ahead.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
We either start building the coal plants or risk massive population losses.
When someone comes up with some oil then we can slow down on building coal.
to quench ones thirst. I suppose it will solve the thirst
problem ,in a fatally total sort of way.
Camelot
If you want a scapegoat, here they are (in no particular order):
Politicians
Regulators
Lobbyists
Central Bankers
Investment Bankers
Hedge Funds
Joe Six Pack
School Boards
Satan
Mortgage Brokers
Appraisers
Select CEOs
Foreign buyers of debt
Inclusively all that looked the other way as transparency faded to black and regulation fell by the way side.
siliconvalleycoins.com
Less socialism, more prosperity for the vast majority of people.
Based on the media's control of the presidential election, it looks like most people want more socialism.
The real problem is most of the idiots who do, cannot even define it. If they could, we'd have a chance.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>It's time to put up or shut up.
We either start building the coal plants or risk massive population losses.
When someone comes up with some oil then we can slow down on building coal. >>
Who is "we"?
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Your coal solution, is more like swallowing arsenic solution
to quench ones thirst. I suppose it will solve the thirst
problem ,in a fatally total sort of way. >>
Coal is a mess.
Starvation is messier.
for fuel back in the 70s when the Arab Oil Embargo hit. It
looks like we may be getting close to using them. The future
holds more Governmental controls, restrictions, higher taxes,
less in the way of entitlements serious efforts to reduce illegal
immigration across our borders. A more sophisticated and devious
foreign policy. More effort to stockpile essential materials needed
for military necessity as well as essential industries. Increase in
overall military ability to respond to multiple fronts. Possibility of a
return of the military draft in some formate to fully man the increased
numbers of personnel needed.Due to increasing water shortages, we see
rationing of certain foodstuffs,to include meat, water rationing . A national
move to grow victory gardens and become more food independent. We are about
to meet the future and it is a place more darkly lit and dour then what we
Currently enjoy. Expect a number of these things to come to pass before the new
President, who ever it may be, takes office.
Camelot
<< <i>More socialism, less prosperity for the vast majority of people.
Less socialism, more prosperity for the vast majority of people.
Based on the media's control of the presidential election, it looks like most people want more socialism.
The real problem is most of the idiots who do, cannot even define it. If they could, we'd have a chance. >>
Well said. One would think that logic would somehow prevail. The only problem, people don't want to think...they'd much rather feel.
<< <i>
Who is "we"? >>
Mostly the US. China has significant amounts of coal as well. We're just running low on time to react. These high oil prices will start a flow coming from places that never had production before but we need a lot more cushion than we have in case of a worst case scenario. It takes a lot of energy to build anything. The strategic reserve will only keep us going six months and you can even get permits for a powerplant in that lenght of time, much less build one.
We have to move forward. Moving back is not an option.
Even if there were no military threat to oil production and shipment, there is a very real chance that production might decline more rapidly than forecast. Only three or four years ago there were just a few crackpots who even believed that oil production might decrease in the foreseeable future and now some pretty bright people think it might be starting.
Some people might underestimate the danger posed by some of the smaller
countries in the Mideast but they pose a real risk and have relatively little to
lose.
Yep, a nice looking book and a heck of a way to keep some fresh veggies on hand.
"It's all about oil. Is that headline [about Israel] moving oil? All's I can say is, we have perfect soil to grow higher energy prices based on supply and demand. And these things are going to keep growing. Now we can look at all the things like the line out of Israel, or what the senate is doing, or what the congress is doing, what the speculators are doing, but at the end of the day this market has been a linear 45 degree rally for years -- and that screams at something going on there on supply and demand -- that everybody chooses to ignore because there is no quick fix."
Which is exactly what the Saudis have. My numbers a a few years old but if I remember this right in 2004 it costs the Saudis $11 a barrel after the oil was loaded on a tanker! I looked and couldn't find a source. The eia website in 2005 assumed it cost the Saudis $19 per barrel.
The oil [AKA tar] sands in Canada cost $80 a barrel to extract. They have a lot of oil to pull out now that it is profitable.
I wonder how much the oil in shale in Western Colorado costs to extract. Just like the Oil sands in Canada, I wonder if enough production can be ramped up in the near term.
Being Active Duty in the AF, other posters are right, it wouldn't take much for many countries to really send shocks through the system of global commerce.
Too bad we are very slowly converting trial, test and prototype solar and ocean power production systems into larger scale items.
On a bright side, Wind power is not only growing very rapidly, the companies involved cannot hire qualified workers fast enough. Still Wind power represents a very small portion of electricity needs.
On the other hand, I wonder how many of the fabulously wealthy countries today with huge oil money are diversifying their economies. When oil dries up they will be way up a creek. It appears the Saudis will be furthest up said creek.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Who is "we"? >>
Mostly the US. China has significant amounts of coal as well. We're just running low on time to react. These high oil prices will start a flow coming from places that never had production before but we need a lot more cushion than we have in case of a worst case scenario. It takes a lot of energy to build anything. The strategic reserve will only keep us going six months and you can even get permits for a powerplant in that lenght of time, much less build one.
We have to move forward. Moving back is not an option.
Even if there were no military threat to oil production and shipment, there is a very real chance that production might decline more rapidly than forecast. Only three or four years ago there were just a few crackpots who even believed that oil production might decrease in the foreseeable future and now some pretty bright people think it might be starting. >>
Again, what is your definition of "we".
"We" are moving backward.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870