Bill for taxpayers swells by trillions USA TODAY May 19th 2008
The federal government's long-term financial obligations grew by $2.5 trillion last year, a reflection of the mushrooming cost of Medicare and Social Security benefits as more baby boomers reach retirement.
The deteriorating condition of these programs doesn't show up in the government's bottom line, but the information is released elsewhere — in Medicare's annual report, for example. Since 2004, USA TODAY has collected the information to provide taxpayers with a financial report similar to what a corporation would give shareholders. Big new liabilities taken on in 2007: • Medicare: $1.2 trillion. • Social Security: $900 billion. • Civil servant retirement: $106 billion. • Veteran benefits: $34 billion.
Banks Keep $35 Billion Markdown Off Income Statements (Update1) By Yalman Onaran May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Banks and securities firms, reeling from record losses resulting from the collapse of the mortgage securities market, are failing to acknowledge in their income statements at least $35 billion of additional writedowns included in their balance sheets, regulatory filings show.
What a Deal: Trash for Treasuries GRETCHEN MORGENSON
The New York Fed, with its taxpayer-funded balance sheet, allows banks and financial firms to swap up to $350 billion of securities they cannot sell for cash or United States Treasuries.
Bill for taxpayers swells by trillions USA TODAY May 19th 2008
The federal government's long-term financial obligations grew by $2.5 trillion last year, a reflection of the mushrooming cost of Medicare and Social Security benefits as more baby boomers reach retirement.
The deteriorating condition of these programs doesn't show up in the government's bottom line, but the information is released elsewhere — in Medicare's annual report, for example. Since 2004, USA TODAY has collected the information to provide taxpayers with a financial report similar to what a corporation would give shareholders. Big new liabilities taken on in 2007: • Medicare: $1.2 trillion. • Social Security: $900 billion. • Civil servant retirement: $106 billion. • Veteran benefits: $34 billion.
Banks Keep $35 Billion Markdown Off Income Statements (Update1) By Yalman Onaran May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Banks and securities firms, reeling from record losses resulting from the collapse of the mortgage securities market, are failing to acknowledge in their income statements at least $35 billion of additional writedowns included in their balance sheets, regulatory filings show.
What a Deal: Trash for Treasuries GRETCHEN MORGENSON
The New York Fed, with its taxpayer-funded balance sheet, allows banks and financial firms to swap up to $350 billion of securities they cannot sell for cash or United States Treasuries. >>
Good articles. The average American simply turned the page and went back to "the game".
<< <i>Let's hope we dont have a collapse in the bond market. >>
I would be concerned with a lot of munis. The federal obligations are a little tougher.
What really matters though is that we spent and continue to spend too much money irresponsibly and will not be able to maintain our standard of living, particularly with working boomers transitioning into retirement. The world won't continue to finance our lifestyles. When we have little to offer and are less atrctive than an alternative, the divorce papers will be filed, bond redemption after bond redemption.
As for stock recommendations, I wouldn't make any specific ones. However, I will make a few points. The business infrastructure of the US is not going to entirely collapse and die. Good companies weathered the Depression and came out just fime. In a way, stocks are a bit like coins and BULLion. You can indeed make a quick buck on hot potato fad stocks with PEGs in the double digits just as you can flip fresh-from-the-press 70-graded bullion for a tidy profit. But you won't lose on quality bought at a fair price. An attractive coin of a good date in a popular series at market value is a fine acquisition. A solid company in an important niche industry with responsible ratios at FMV is also a fine acquisition. Just have to find such coins and stocks with a little DD.
Hi Guys! I haven't posted or read this thread in a long time. No, I'm not going back to read the few thousand posts I missed.
Like Bear I am moving some of my safe money into Vanguard funds.
<<I just went to Vanguard and bought four index funds including Wellington Fund, large companies in Pacific and Europe, emerging markets in Pacific and Europe and index of Small and midcap companies in USA. It may not make me rich, but with reinvested dividends and capital gains , it should keep me ahead of inflation and fairly safe from total disaster. >>
I didn't buy the small cap US stuff. I did also buy Inflation indexed bonds and the REIT index. My big worry here is accelerating inflation caused partly by unrelenting demand for oil and other commodities and partly by the US Fed's massive infusion of liquidity.
BTW I really don't like high grade US Treasury bonds here - interest rates should go up so long bonds should go down. I took a small position in GDX an ETF composed of gold mining companies. In addition to that hedge I also bought a few gold coins at the bullion price.
I'm not selling my oil stocks or oil service stocks here even though I think oil will come back down. It seems the oil service stocks are way undervalued compared to the price of oil.
OK, I got my two cents in and added to one of the longest running threads on these boards! I feel better now.
"An attractive coin of a good date in a popular series at market value is a fine acquisition. A solid company in an important niche industry with responsible ratios at FMV is also a fine acquisition. Just have to find such coins and stocks with a little DD."
Total agreement with that post. The stock/coin churn and burn fans are playing with fire but the good stuff will always be good stuff. I just let go of my inflation linked bond, kept me safe during the last sell off of the stock market but I've moved back into global equities with my meager fund. I kept a few cheap US stocks in a trading account so I can play when I get the itch, just because they are cheap and could run but no worry either way.
This is not a time to be woe is me, it is a time to get your act together. Things change and change is happening now and things tend to change for the good. We all know the drill; no consumer credit balances, stash cash, accumulate pm's, reduce unnecessary spending, keep your money close to home and save, save, save. Remember the three P's: be Prepared, Pay attention, have a Plan. If you want to play ostrich and bury your head in the sand and think that surely someone will help you, enjoy.
Good investments? Well, I like raw land in distress but maybe that's just me. I like global equities and good US stocks, I like good coins, I like PM's but I'm a little heavy here (is that bad?), I like keeping a little pile of real cash in the SDB, I like Amex for the 30 day float, I like Roth IRA's for long term, and it looks like I'm going to like keeping my job for a few more years (nah, but I'm going to do it anyway), and I like paying with cash.
Keep posting strategies, we can all benefit by knowing what each other is doing.
something that might be of significance in marking a top to the stock market. I just looked at the VIX (Volatility Index) and noticed it just dipped to its lowest level in the past year. The last time it dipped closest to this level was October 9th, 2007. And as you all probably know, a couple days later the Dow dropped over 2000 points. So the lack of volatility is worse than that of the Oct. 2007 top, and at the same time all the indices are tapping key resistance levels, and on pathetic volume. Today's volume is setting up to be another horribly low day. Plus, the Nadaq indices are lagging both the S&P and Dow. This seems to me to be immediately bearish (i.e. next day or two).
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
<< <i>something that might be of significance in marking a top to the stock market. I just looked at the VIX (Volatility Index) and noticed it just dipped to its lowest level in the past year. The last time it dipped closest to this level was October 9th, 2007. And as you all probably know, a couple days later the Dow dropped over 2000 points. So the lack of volatility is worse than that of the Oct. 2007 top, and at the same time all the indices are tapping key resistance levels, and on pathetic volume. Today's volume is setting up to be another horribly low day. Plus, the Nadaq indices are lagging both the S&P and Dow. This seems to me to be immediately bearish (i.e. next day or two). >>
Ah yes, politics. Doesn't matter the color of your stripes or even if you wear a flag lapel pin. They all play these stupid games. Nobody wants to have the out-of-context charge later that they were pro-OPEC price and supply fixing. This also obviously forces Bush's hand (with the veto stamp) and thus alienates influence on the McCain campaign. Now I am vehemently anti-Bush, but would yell every time I see crap from either side. Some political apparati are like the scummiest lawyer concentrates one could figure exists.
It does seem kind of weird. The Saudi's said we're using too much oil, we have to slow down because of the peak oil reserves situation...yet we stay in in The Land of De Nile. High prices for refined product is not the king's problem, he just gets the oil and sells it for what ever buyers pay but there's a lot of people buying oil right now and it's going to get worse. If we want to tax the refined product so heavily and then blame the Saudi's for charging high prices for raw product in a very competitive international market, then we certainly do need to reconsider our posture. The king tells you you're using too much oil and OPEC will probably say the same thing. It's just going to cost more, folks.
A summary of the FED's minutes by Briefing.com......
Summary of FOMC minutes
The Committee's statement noted that recent information indicated that the outlook for economic activity had weakened further; growth in consumer spending had slowed, and labor markets had softened. It also indicated that financial markets remained under considerable stress, and that the tightening of credit conditions and the deepening of the housing contraction were likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. The Committee noted, however, that downside risks to growth remained, and indicated that it would act in a timely manner as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability...
In the forecast prepared for this meeting, the staff made little change to its projection for the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008 and 2009. The available indicators of recent economic activity had come in close to the staff's expectations and had continued to suggest that a substantial softening in economic activity was under way. The staff projection pointed to a contraction of real GDP in the first half of 2008 followed by a modest rise in the second half of this year, aided in part by the fiscal stimulus package. The forecast showed real GDP expanding at a rate somewhat above its potential in 2009, reflecting the impetus from cumulative monetary policy easing, continued strength in net exports, a gradual lessening in financial market strains, and the waning drag from past increases in energy prices. Despite this pickup in the pace of activity, the trajectory of resource utilization anticipated through 2009 implied noticeable slack. The projection for core PCE price inflation in 2008 as a whole was unchanged; it was reduced a bit over the first half of the year to reflect the somewhat lower-than-expected readings of recent core PCE inflation and raised a bit over the second half of the year to incorporate the spillover from larger-than-anticipated increases in prices of crude oil and non-oil imports since the previous FOMC meeting... Most members viewed the decision to reduce interest rates at this meeting as a close call...
The Committee agreed that that the statement to be released after the meeting should take note of the substantial policy easing to date and the ongoing measures to foster market liquidity. In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation. Accordingly, the Committee felt that it was no longer appropriate for the statement to emphasize the downside risks to growth. Given these circumstances, future policy adjustments would depend on the extent to which economic and financial developments affected the medium-term outlook for growth and inflation. In that regard, several members noted that it was unlikely to be appropriate to ease policy in response to information suggesting that the economy was slowing further or even contracting slightly in the near term, unless economic and financial developments indicated a significant weakening of the economic outlook...
Economic Projections Update: The central tendency of participants' projections for real GDP growth in 2008, at 0.3-1.2%, was considerably lower than the central tendency of the projections provided in conjunction with the January FOMC meeting, which was 1.3-2.0%... The central tendency of participants' projections for the average rate of unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2008 was 5.5-5.7%, above the 5.2-5.3% unemployment rate forecasted in January and consistent with significant slack in labor markets and the economy. The central tendencies of the projections for core PCE inflation in 2008 increased only moderately, from 2.0-2.2% in January to 2.2-2.4% in April, reflecting the effects of higher food and energy prices on other goods and services and the rise in import prices associated with the decline in the dollar and higher inflation in our trading partners.
<< <i>High prices for refined product is not the king's problem, he just gets the oil and sells it for what ever buyers pay but there's a lot of people buying oil right now and it's going to get worse. >>
One of the reasons it's going to get worse is because a lot of the people doing the "buying" aren't even intending to take delivery, so "market demand" greatly exceeds the actual demand for oil consumption.
Joe Lunchbox is not happy with his big statement SUV, he used to buy three year old Ford sedans, but his house was appreciating more than he was making in a year so he sucked it all out like an ATM machine...now he wants a used GEO Metro and can't trade in his (insert SUV model here) for anything that won't put him 15K upside down on his 6 year lease. He owes about what his house is worth now.
His "ATM" home equity had dried up.
He thinks that there is some kinda conspiracy, blames them rag heads from OPIC(sic) and those slick boyz on Wall Street.....little does he know...
"American Greed" it ain't just the rich that have played this game and lost.
Almost everything that Ron Paul has said would happen is happening. The guy is amazing.
Why are Americans chasing more socialism with the others? Boggles my mind. Here was the one shot this country had to get on track and finally get back to what America was suppposed to stand for and it's being blown.
This is just the beginning of a serious situation in MHO! Unemployment grows and lack of fuel and the cost of food or lack of for some...could be a nasty situation if not taken care of.
I voted for Ron Paul but don't think that one man is the only hope. This one man has opened the eyes of many but he's not the only hope. Though we'll need to wait longer and endure more crap, you can do things to better the society. Start off by educating those that prefer to sit on the couch and watch life go by and have the government tell them what to think.
i do not understand why common sense factors are not coming into play.
for example.. if people are so broke and poor why are not cable tv companies losing subscribers in droves? why are cell phone companies not doing poorly? in other words, why are people not canceling all these frills and extras? how can you have "hard times" yet people are not changing their ways by the 100s of 1000s?
I look around here in NH and I see nothing different except a run up in gas prices. Food costs are the same as they always have been. I never paid more then 4 dollars for a gallon of milk... who in their right mind does except those who shop at silly convienence stores? Or those people who buy premade slop so they do not have to cook? Just heat and serve! If times were so bad I would see more raw cooking stuffs for sale in the grocery store. Raw potatoes, onions, etc.... but those areas of the store are shrinking! More room for the expensive fancy stuff...
Black, liquid tulips. indeed. US consumption of oil has gone down lately... not up, according to what I have read.
So when everyone is talking gold this and silver that... me? I am beginning to determine what stocks I wish to buy when it bottoms out. GOLD GOLD GOLD talk means unload unload unload to me. Lock in the profits and use the money wisely for other things or to find greener pastures. As a person who is younger then most here I find that I can afford to look long term and want compound interest, divedends, and growth. Gold/Silver was fine when it was a no brainer easy investment but since everyone is on the PM train i want off.
<< <i>I voted for Ron Paul but don't think that one man is the only hope. This one man has opened the eyes of many but he's not the only hope. Though we'll need to wait longer and endure more crap, you can do things to better the society. Start off by educating those that prefer to sit on the couch and watch life go by and have the government tell them what to think. >>
That was the basic philosophy of Leonard Read who started the Foundation for Economic Education which is the oldest libertarian think tank in the country. Personally I say that idea is useless.
I don't know what would work. But the education idea hasn't worked and it's obvious.
<< <i>I don't know what would work. But the education idea hasn't worked and it's obvious. >>
Simple. We've become dumb, fat and happy as a society.
It's all about instant gratification without pain.
We want to acquire stuff now without having to work hard and save for it ahead of time (through easy credit).
We want weight loss miracles which don't involve months of exercise and a change in eating habits.
We want foods we can just nuke for five minutes and have dinner. Instant this, instant that.
We want "get rich quick" schemes that build wealth without decades of saving and living below our means.
We want a nanny state to take care of our economic needs so we don't have to work for it. And we want them to finance it through deficit spending so that our kids and grandkids get the bill.
JFK would have no chance today in talking about "ask not what your country can do for you." We've been brainwashed for decades into thinking that throwing more government into the picture is the answer to so many socioeconomic issues. But all the candidates this year, except for Ron Paul, are talking about how much more they want the "government" (which usually means future generations of taxpayers) to pay for our goodies that we don't have to work for.
<< <i>I don't know what would work. But the education idea hasn't worked and it's obvious. >>
Simple. We've become dumb, fat and happy as a society.
It's all about instant gratification without pain.
We want to acquire stuff now without having to work hard and save for it ahead of time (through easy credit).
We want weight loss miracles which don't involve months of exercise and a change in eating habits.
We want foods we can just nuke for five minutes and have dinner. Instant this, instant that.
We want "get rich quick" schemes that build wealth without decades of saving and living below our means.
We want a nanny state to take care of our economic needs so we don't have to work for it. And we want them to finance it through deficit spending so that our kids and grandkids get the bill.
JFK would have no chance today in talking about "ask not what your country can do for you." We've been brainwashed for decades into thinking that throwing more government into the picture is the answer to so many socioeconomic issues. But all the candidates this year, except for Ron Paul, are talking about how much more they want the "government" (which usually means future generations of taxpayers) to pay for our goodies that we don't have to work for.
It's pretty disgusting, really. >>
Yes, it is and the gravy train is coming to an end for the vast majority of people. That puts an even bigger target on the heads on all of us who work hard and produce while askinhg simply to be left alone to work hard, produce and enjoy what we've created or rue the day we chose to become hard workers and producers. ( whew, long sentence without taking a breath! ).
<< <i>Yes, it is and the gravy train is coming to an end for the vast majority of people. That puts an even bigger target on the heads on all of us who work hard and produce while askinhg simply to be left alone to work hard, produce and enjoy what we've created or rue the day we chose to become hard workers and producers. ( whew, long sentence without taking a breath! ). >>
And I don't think it's a coincidence that all this stuff really started happening again after most of the folks who lived through the Depression were no longer with us. As long as they were alive, it was easier to remember the past so we could avoid repeating it.
But as Santayana said, those who don't remember it are condemned to repeat it. We've repeated many of the excesses of the 1920s and created some new ones. And the Depression generation isn't around in sufficient numbers to warn us about it.
The Market is trading in a wide channel with large swings between the upper and lower channels. It has yet to break out in either direction. There is so much Governmental and corporate conniving, that one is unable to know what is happening or about to happen, as well as the actual reasons responsible for any action. One can only hunker down, stay conservatively invested in a basket of index funds and keep a substantial portion of equity in liquid cash for future opportunities. If one does not own stock and does not have cash then I guess that you are Scr$wed, blued and tattoed.
Hummmmmmmmmm...yep, people still working those cell phones. Wonder what they will let go of before they lose their cell phones? Food or cell phone or cable or car payment? Home cooked meal or Mickey D's? Fly on summer vacation or drive or just hunker down and blow it off?
<< <i>Hummmmmmmmmm...yep, people still working those cell phones. Wonder what they will let go of before they lose their cell phones? Food or cell phone or cable or car payment? Home cooked meal or Mickey D's? Fly on summer vacation or drive or just hunker down and blow it off? >>
Why cant we be like Europe and get 4 weeks paid vacation. Maybe that socialism thingy aint so bad.
Jim Sinclair seems to be rather anxious at the moment. This from his 5/21/08 daily update:
This move in gold is real. The volatility of the gold price up and down is going to be wild. Buckle your seatbelt and put on your helmet. Gold is headed to $1200 here and now. The drought of interest in juniors is behind us, having ended on May 8th 2008. The positivity of the gold price has legs both in time and price. I see months, not weeks in this phase. "Sell in May and go away" will be proven completely WRONG this time around.
<< <i>The Market is trading in a wide channel with large swings between the upper and lower channels. It has yet to break out in either direction. There is so much Governmental and corporate conniving, that one is unable to know what is happening or about to happen, as well as the actual reasons responsible for any action. One can only hunker down, stay conservatively invested in a basket of index funds and keep a substantial portion of equity in liquid cash for future opportunities. If one does not own stock and does not have cash then I guess that you are Scr$wed, blued and tattoed. >>
? Hunker down? The gravy train is there for the taking. The low in the dollar can reach 90.00 to the yen. the last low was 96.00 Really the warnings are all there, can you stand to loose 20 30 or even 40 percent more? Its amazing how people think to buy, and hold that is the markets point of view. The truth is not even close, stop limits have been reached then sell> Why Hold? to loose even more? the gravy train is not over, the reason is the euro may make one more significant high, and the dollar will reach one more all time low. the gift is there for he who seeks, and have understanding. Buffet is still very much in the game, research research... Sell all your funds for a minimum loss, as apposed to hitting stop limits that prices you out of the market. The market needs your longs, but thats your loss not theirs. Dont give them the chance to profit from your longs.
This is the power to see thee future, learn how to read, and understand these charts.
this chart represents support, when broken prepare for a large wave down. Can you sit back and watch? Let me know if you want to see more charts. Target one is 2350 target two is 2200
How can you live by giving your money to banks for them to profit? they give you nothing for the loan... call all credit card company's and demand lower rates. Easy, just do it.
Here is the OIL scenario, don't buy oil! sell oil!
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
What would you do with a guaranteed way to profit in this environment?
would you be skeptical, and only wait to see, or will you act?
I will put up 1000 dollars to any one who will match my offer.. the offer is for you to profit 30% of your investment thats 1300 dollars 30% return, Its a guarantee 300 in one month. I will even put up collateral, How many of you would be willing to profit 30 % in One month? My guess is not One American is willing to take the sure Bet!.. I have made this offer many many times. The truth is people are not willing to part will any of there money.. Thats always been the case..... Doing nothing when presented with this offer is the American way...
This works only if a person has trust, Americans don't even trust there own spouses, so you do the math.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
In times as these, one is not certain if we are in for a period of recession or inflation. In such times, one must be prepared as well as possible for both. A basket of stock, rare coins, a home where the value is not inverted and cash to carry one thru the tough times. It is true that inflation will eat away the value of money, but the nasty green stuff is still necessary to the survival of ones self and family. A person must be able to look beyond the next 12 to 18 months and hopes that some part of the basket of investments will hold up.
I could care less about China or any other country but MINE! >>
Sorry, I was being a smart A@@, I guess Bush was the wrong person to invest in...
IMO The only true investment of people is the common folk, not government...
Americans will only vote for who they think will win the next election, so they are not investing in them self, But the media who dictates these ideas...
My offer still stands if you would rather invest in the common folk, and not government..
Avoid Mcane at all costs...
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
He sure was and is...he is a prime example of what is not acceptable...lame in mind...allowed to be because of rich parents...all of this will lead back to them in so many ways even Daddy! They have gotten in so deep, History will one day reveal it all! No one remembered how he bankrupted the state of Texas now he has Bankrupted a Nation!
Hillary is our only hope!
It is so funny how everyone seems to forget the Important things...Even the Democrates never brought it up...Why I will never know!
But then again he was never elected by the people was he!
Comments
including Wellington Fund, large companies in Pacific and Europe,
emerging markets in Pacific and Europe and index of Small and midcap
companies in USA. It may not make me rich, but with reinvested dividends
and capital gains , it should keep me ahead of inflation and fairly safe from
total disaster.
Camelot
Mhammerman
Slowly down the drain,
Bill for taxpayers swells by trillions
USA TODAY May 19th 2008
The federal government's long-term financial obligations grew by $2.5 trillion last year, a reflection of the mushrooming cost of Medicare and Social Security benefits as more baby boomers reach retirement.
The deteriorating condition of these programs doesn't show up in the government's bottom line, but the information is released elsewhere — in Medicare's annual report, for example. Since 2004, USA TODAY has collected the information to provide taxpayers with a financial report similar to what a corporation would give shareholders. Big new liabilities taken on in 2007:
• Medicare: $1.2 trillion.
• Social Security: $900 billion.
• Civil servant retirement: $106 billion.
• Veteran benefits: $34 billion.
Banks Keep $35 Billion Markdown Off Income Statements (Update1)
By Yalman Onaran
May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Banks and securities firms, reeling from record losses resulting from the collapse of the mortgage securities market, are failing to acknowledge in their income statements at least $35 billion of additional writedowns included in their balance sheets, regulatory filings show.
What a Deal: Trash for Treasuries
GRETCHEN MORGENSON
The New York Fed, with its taxpayer-funded balance sheet, allows banks and financial firms to swap up to $350 billion of securities they cannot sell for cash or United States Treasuries.
<< <i>Mhammerman
Slowly down the drain,
Bill for taxpayers swells by trillions
USA TODAY May 19th 2008
The federal government's long-term financial obligations grew by $2.5 trillion last year, a reflection of the mushrooming cost of Medicare and Social Security benefits as more baby boomers reach retirement.
The deteriorating condition of these programs doesn't show up in the government's bottom line, but the information is released elsewhere — in Medicare's annual report, for example. Since 2004, USA TODAY has collected the information to provide taxpayers with a financial report similar to what a corporation would give shareholders. Big new liabilities taken on in 2007:
• Medicare: $1.2 trillion.
• Social Security: $900 billion.
• Civil servant retirement: $106 billion.
• Veteran benefits: $34 billion.
Banks Keep $35 Billion Markdown Off Income Statements (Update1)
By Yalman Onaran
May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Banks and securities firms, reeling from record losses resulting from the collapse of the mortgage securities market, are failing to acknowledge in their income statements at least $35 billion of additional writedowns included in their balance sheets, regulatory filings show.
What a Deal: Trash for Treasuries
GRETCHEN MORGENSON
The New York Fed, with its taxpayer-funded balance sheet, allows banks and financial firms to swap up to $350 billion of securities they cannot sell for cash or United States Treasuries. >>
Good articles. The average American simply turned the page and went back to "the game".
The dumbing down is nearly complete.
Harrison Bergeron
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Let's hope we dont have a collapse in the bond market. >>
I would be concerned with a lot of munis. The federal obligations are a little tougher.
What really matters though is that we spent and continue to spend too much money irresponsibly and will not be able to maintain our standard of living, particularly with working boomers transitioning into retirement. The world won't continue to finance our lifestyles. When we have little to offer and are less atrctive than an alternative, the divorce papers will be filed, bond redemption after bond redemption.
As for stock recommendations, I wouldn't make any specific ones. However, I will make a few points. The business infrastructure of the US is not going to entirely collapse and die. Good companies weathered the Depression and came out just fime. In a way, stocks are a bit like coins and BULLion. You can indeed make a quick buck on hot potato fad stocks with PEGs in the double digits just as you can flip fresh-from-the-press 70-graded bullion for a tidy profit. But you won't lose on quality bought at a fair price. An attractive coin of a good date in a popular series at market value is a fine acquisition. A solid company in an important niche industry with responsible ratios at FMV is also a fine acquisition. Just have to find such coins and stocks with a little DD.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Like Bear I am moving some of my safe money into Vanguard funds.
<<I just went to Vanguard and bought four index funds
including Wellington Fund, large companies in Pacific and Europe,
emerging markets in Pacific and Europe and index of Small and midcap
companies in USA. It may not make me rich, but with reinvested dividends
and capital gains , it should keep me ahead of inflation and fairly safe from
total disaster. >>
I didn't buy the small cap US stuff. I did also buy Inflation indexed bonds and the REIT index. My big worry here is accelerating inflation caused partly by unrelenting demand for oil and other commodities and partly by the US Fed's massive infusion of liquidity.
BTW I really don't like high grade US Treasury bonds here - interest rates should go up so long bonds should go down. I took a small position in GDX an ETF composed of gold mining companies. In addition to that hedge I also bought a few gold coins at the bullion price.
I'm not selling my oil stocks or oil service stocks here even though I think oil will come back down. It seems the oil service stocks are way undervalued compared to the price of oil.
OK, I got my two cents in and added to one of the longest running threads on these boards! I feel better now.
Total agreement with that post. The stock/coin churn and burn fans are playing with fire but the good stuff will always be good stuff. I just let go of my inflation linked bond, kept me safe during the last sell off of the stock market but I've moved back into global equities with my meager fund. I kept a few cheap US stocks in a trading account so I can play when I get the itch, just because they are cheap and could run but no worry either way.
This is not a time to be woe is me, it is a time to get your act together. Things change and change is happening now and things tend to change for the good. We all know the drill; no consumer credit balances, stash cash, accumulate pm's, reduce unnecessary spending, keep your money close to home and save, save, save. Remember the three P's: be Prepared, Pay attention, have a Plan. If you want to play ostrich and bury your head in the sand and think that surely someone will help you, enjoy.
Good investments? Well, I like raw land in distress but maybe that's just me. I like global equities and good US stocks, I like good coins, I like PM's but I'm a little heavy here (is that bad?), I like keeping a little pile of real cash in the SDB, I like Amex for the 30 day float, I like Roth IRA's for long term, and it looks like I'm going to like keeping my job for a few more years (nah, but I'm going to do it anyway), and I like paying with cash.
Keep posting strategies, we can all benefit by knowing what each other is doing.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>"mhammerman , I personally like proof GOLD in all grades but then again I also like almost all grades of GOLD" Yeah! >>
You're VERRRRRY close on both counts
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>something that might be of significance in marking a top to the stock market. I just looked at the VIX (Volatility Index) and noticed it just dipped to its lowest level in the past year. The last time it dipped closest to this level was October 9th, 2007. And as you all probably know, a couple days later the Dow dropped over 2000 points. So the lack of volatility is worse than that of the Oct. 2007 top, and at the same time all the indices are tapping key resistance levels, and on pathetic volume. Today's volume is setting up to be another horribly low day. Plus, the Nadaq indices are lagging both the S&P and Dow. This seems to me to be immediately bearish (i.e. next day or two). >>
wow...
WOW!
House passes bill to sue OPEC over oil prices
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Here's another one that has to leave any rational person wondering who these people think they are
House passes bill to sue OPEC over oil prices >>
Ah yes, politics. Doesn't matter the color of your stripes or even if you wear a flag lapel pin. They all play these stupid games. Nobody wants to have the out-of-context charge later that they were pro-OPEC price and supply fixing. This also obviously forces Bush's hand (with the veto stamp) and thus alienates influence on the McCain campaign. Now I am vehemently anti-Bush, but would yell every time I see crap from either side. Some political apparati are like the scummiest lawyer concentrates one could figure exists.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Summary of FOMC minutes
The Committee's statement noted that recent information indicated that the outlook for economic activity had weakened further; growth in consumer spending had slowed, and labor markets had softened. It also indicated that financial markets remained under considerable stress, and that the tightening of credit conditions and the deepening of the housing contraction were likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. The Committee noted, however, that downside risks to growth remained, and indicated that it would act in a timely manner as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability...
In the forecast prepared for this meeting, the staff made little change to its projection for the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008 and 2009. The available indicators of recent economic activity had come in close to the staff's expectations and had continued to suggest that a substantial softening in economic activity was under way. The staff projection pointed to a contraction of real GDP in the first half of 2008 followed by a modest rise in the second half of this year, aided in part by the fiscal stimulus package. The forecast showed real GDP expanding at a rate somewhat above its potential in 2009, reflecting the impetus from cumulative monetary policy easing, continued strength in net exports, a gradual lessening in financial market strains, and the waning drag from past increases in energy prices. Despite this pickup in the pace of activity, the trajectory of resource utilization anticipated through 2009 implied noticeable slack. The projection for core PCE price inflation in 2008 as a whole was unchanged; it was reduced a bit over the first half of the year to reflect the somewhat lower-than-expected readings of recent core PCE inflation and raised a bit over the second half of the year to incorporate the spillover from larger-than-anticipated increases in prices of crude oil and non-oil imports since the previous FOMC meeting... Most members viewed the decision to reduce interest rates at this meeting as a close call...
The Committee agreed that that the statement to be released after the meeting should take note of the substantial policy easing to date and the ongoing measures to foster market liquidity. In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation. Accordingly, the Committee felt that it was no longer appropriate for the statement to emphasize the downside risks to growth. Given these circumstances, future policy adjustments would depend on the extent to which economic and financial developments affected the medium-term outlook for growth and inflation. In that regard, several members noted that it was unlikely to be appropriate to ease policy in response to information suggesting that the economy was slowing further or even contracting slightly in the near term, unless economic and financial developments indicated a significant weakening of the economic outlook...
Economic Projections Update: The central tendency of participants' projections for real GDP growth in 2008, at 0.3-1.2%, was considerably lower than the central tendency of the projections provided in conjunction with the January FOMC meeting, which was 1.3-2.0%... The central tendency of participants' projections for the average rate of unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2008 was 5.5-5.7%, above the 5.2-5.3% unemployment rate forecasted in January and consistent with significant slack in labor markets and the economy. The central tendencies of the projections for core PCE inflation in 2008 increased only moderately, from 2.0-2.2% in January to 2.2-2.4% in April, reflecting the effects of higher food and energy prices on other goods and services and the rise in import prices associated with the decline in the dollar and higher inflation in our trading partners.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>High prices for refined product is not the king's problem, he just gets the oil and sells it for what ever buyers pay but there's a lot of people buying oil right now and it's going to get worse. >>
One of the reasons it's going to get worse is because a lot of the people doing the "buying" aren't even intending to take delivery, so "market demand" greatly exceeds the actual demand for oil consumption.
Black, liquid tulips.
His "ATM" home equity had dried up.
He thinks that there is some kinda conspiracy, blames them rag heads from OPIC(sic) and those slick boyz on Wall Street.....little does he know...
"American Greed" it ain't just the rich that have played this game and lost.
Why are Americans chasing more socialism with the others? Boggles my mind. Here was the one shot this country had to get on track and finally get back to what America was suppposed to stand for and it's being blown.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
into play.
for example.. if people are so broke and poor why are not cable
tv companies losing subscribers in droves? why are cell phone
companies not doing poorly? in other words, why are people not
canceling all these frills and extras? how can you have "hard times"
yet people are not changing their ways by the 100s of 1000s?
I look around here in NH and I see nothing different except a run
up in gas prices. Food costs are the same as they always have been.
I never paid more then 4 dollars for a gallon of milk... who in their
right mind does except those who shop at silly convienence stores?
Or those people who buy premade slop so they do not have to cook?
Just heat and serve! If times were so bad I would see more raw cooking
stuffs for sale in the grocery store. Raw potatoes, onions, etc....
but those areas of the store are shrinking! More room for the expensive
fancy stuff...
Black, liquid tulips. indeed. US consumption of oil has gone down
lately... not up, according to what I have read.
So when everyone is talking gold this and silver that... me? I am
beginning to determine what stocks I wish to buy when it bottoms
out. GOLD GOLD GOLD talk means unload unload unload to me. Lock
in the profits and use the money wisely for other things or to find
greener pastures. As a person who is younger then most here I
find that I can afford to look long term and want compound interest,
divedends, and growth. Gold/Silver was fine when it was a no brainer
easy investment but since everyone is on the PM train i want off.
rambling.
<< <i>I voted for Ron Paul but don't think that one man is the only hope. This one man has opened the eyes of many but he's not the only hope. Though we'll need to wait longer and endure more crap, you can do things to better the society. Start off by educating those that prefer to sit on the couch and watch life go by and have the government tell them what to think. >>
That was the basic philosophy of Leonard Read who started the Foundation for Economic Education which is the oldest libertarian think tank in the country. Personally I say that idea is useless.
I don't know what would work. But the education idea hasn't worked and it's obvious.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>I don't know what would work. But the education idea hasn't worked and it's obvious. >>
Simple. We've become dumb, fat and happy as a society.
It's all about instant gratification without pain.
We want to acquire stuff now without having to work hard and save for it ahead of time (through easy credit).
We want weight loss miracles which don't involve months of exercise and a change in eating habits.
We want foods we can just nuke for five minutes and have dinner. Instant this, instant that.
We want "get rich quick" schemes that build wealth without decades of saving and living below our means.
We want a nanny state to take care of our economic needs so we don't have to work for it. And we want them to finance it through deficit spending so that our kids and grandkids get the bill.
JFK would have no chance today in talking about "ask not what your country can do for you." We've been brainwashed for decades into thinking that throwing more government into the picture is the answer to so many socioeconomic issues. But all the candidates this year, except for Ron Paul, are talking about how much more they want the "government" (which usually means future generations of taxpayers) to pay for our goodies that we don't have to work for.
It's pretty disgusting, really.
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't know what would work. But the education idea hasn't worked and it's obvious. >>
Simple. We've become dumb, fat and happy as a society.
It's all about instant gratification without pain.
We want to acquire stuff now without having to work hard and save for it ahead of time (through easy credit).
We want weight loss miracles which don't involve months of exercise and a change in eating habits.
We want foods we can just nuke for five minutes and have dinner. Instant this, instant that.
We want "get rich quick" schemes that build wealth without decades of saving and living below our means.
We want a nanny state to take care of our economic needs so we don't have to work for it. And we want them to finance it through deficit spending so that our kids and grandkids get the bill.
JFK would have no chance today in talking about "ask not what your country can do for you." We've been brainwashed for decades into thinking that throwing more government into the picture is the answer to so many socioeconomic issues. But all the candidates this year, except for Ron Paul, are talking about how much more they want the "government" (which usually means future generations of taxpayers) to pay for our goodies that we don't have to work for.
It's pretty disgusting, really. >>
Yes, it is and the gravy train is coming to an end for the vast majority of people. That puts an even bigger target on the heads on all of us who work hard and produce while askinhg simply to be left alone to work hard, produce and enjoy what we've created or rue the day we chose to become hard workers and producers. ( whew, long sentence without taking a breath! ).
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Yes, it is and the gravy train is coming to an end for the vast majority of people. That puts an even bigger target on the heads on all of us who work hard and produce while askinhg simply to be left alone to work hard, produce and enjoy what we've created or rue the day we chose to become hard workers and producers. ( whew, long sentence without taking a breath! ). >>
And I don't think it's a coincidence that all this stuff really started happening again after most of the folks who lived through the Depression were no longer with us. As long as they were alive, it was easier to remember the past so we could avoid repeating it.
But as Santayana said, those who don't remember it are condemned to repeat it. We've repeated many of the excesses of the 1920s and created some new ones. And the Depression generation isn't around in sufficient numbers to warn us about it.
the upper and lower channels. It has yet to break out in either direction.
There is so much Governmental and corporate conniving, that one is unable
to know what is happening or about to happen, as well as the actual reasons
responsible for any action. One can only hunker down, stay conservatively
invested in a basket of index funds and keep a substantial portion of equity in
liquid cash for future opportunities. If one does not own stock and does not have cash
then I guess that you are Scr$wed, blued and tattoed.
Camelot
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Hummmmmmmmmm...yep, people still working those cell phones. Wonder what they will let go of before they lose their cell phones? Food or cell phone or cable or car payment? Home cooked meal or Mickey D's? Fly on summer vacation or drive or just hunker down and blow it off? >>
Why cant we be like Europe and get 4 weeks paid vacation. Maybe that socialism thingy aint so bad.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>No surprise there >>
I guess you didnt see the little winky guy.
Like it or not, thats where we are headed. Just suck it up like the rest of will have too.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This move in gold is real.
The volatility of the gold price up and down is going to be wild. Buckle your seatbelt and put on your helmet.
Gold is headed to $1200 here and now.
The drought of interest in juniors is behind us, having ended on May 8th 2008.
The positivity of the gold price has legs both in time and price. I see months, not weeks in this phase.
"Sell in May and go away" will be proven completely WRONG this time around.
roadrunner
<< <i>The Market is trading in a wide channel with large swings between
the upper and lower channels. It has yet to break out in either direction.
There is so much Governmental and corporate conniving, that one is unable
to know what is happening or about to happen, as well as the actual reasons
responsible for any action. One can only hunker down, stay conservatively
invested in a basket of index funds and keep a substantial portion of equity in
liquid cash for future opportunities. If one does not own stock and does not have cash
then I guess that you are Scr$wed, blued and tattoed.
? Hunker down?
The gravy train is there for the taking.
The low in the dollar can reach 90.00 to the yen. the last low was 96.00
Really the warnings are all there, can you stand to loose 20 30 or even 40 percent more?
Its amazing how people think to buy, and hold that is the markets point of view.
The truth is not even close, stop limits have been reached then sell> Why Hold? to loose even more?
the gravy train is not over, the reason is the euro may make one more significant high, and the dollar will reach one more all time low.
the gift is there for he who seeks, and have understanding. Buffet is still very much in the game, research research...
Sell all your funds for a minimum loss, as apposed to hitting stop limits that prices you out of the market.
The market needs your longs, but thats your loss not theirs. Dont give them the chance to profit from your longs.
This is the power to see thee future, learn how to read, and understand these charts.
this chart represents support, when broken prepare for a large wave down. Can you sit back and watch?
Let me know if you want to see more charts. Target one is 2350 target two is 2200
How can you live by giving your money to banks for them to profit? they give you nothing for the loan...
call all credit card company's and demand lower rates. Easy, just do it.
Here is the OIL scenario, don't buy oil! sell oil!
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
would you be skeptical, and only wait to see, or will you act?
I will put up 1000 dollars to any one who will match my offer..
the offer is for you to profit 30% of your investment thats 1300 dollars 30% return, Its a guarantee 300 in one month.
I will even put up collateral, How many of you would be willing to profit 30 % in One month?
My guess is not One American is willing to take the sure Bet!..
I have made this offer many many times. The truth is people are not willing to part will any of there money..
Thats always been the case.....
Doing nothing when presented with this offer is the American way...
This works only if a person has trust, Americans don't even trust there own spouses, so you do the math.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
as it pertains to investments.
IN A MARKET IN DISREPAIR AND A WORLD
ON THE EDGE OF MADNESS, THE BASIC RULE
TO ADHERE TO ,IS AS FOLLOWS:
PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL...ABOVE ALL, IS THE
PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Camelot
<< <i>I will grant you the gift of wisdom
as it pertains to investments.
IN A MARKET IN DISREPAIR AND A WORLD
ON THE EDGE OF MADNESS, THE BASIC RULE
TO ADHERE TO ,IS AS FOLLOWS:
PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL...ABOVE ALL, IS THE
PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >>
You are a wise bear indeed, the problem is the dollar has not been reduced to ruble, or has it?
There you have it spoken like a true American.
Bears response do Nothing, as predicted...
Add 3 ways to the PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL....
picture February 1936..
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Gold is ready for a correction down from the $935 level.
Silver is now 39 cent away from my target of 18.50
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>A Nation is only as strong as it's people...invest in people and you shall preserve capital and the future of your Nation! >>
American people, or Chinese?
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
I could care less about China or any other country but MINE!
in for a period of recession or inflation. In such
times, one must be prepared as well
as possible for both. A basket of stock, rare coins,
a home where the value is not inverted and cash
to carry one thru the tough times. It is true that
inflation will eat away the value of money, but the
nasty green stuff is still necessary to the survival of
ones self and family.
beyond the next 12 to 18 months and hopes that some
part of the basket of investments will hold up.
Camelot
<< <i>Well I don't live in China!
I could care less about China or any other country but MINE! >>
Sorry, I was being a smart A@@, I guess Bush was the wrong person to invest in...
IMO The only true investment of people is the common folk, not government...
Americans will only vote for who they think will win the next election, so they are not investing in them self, But the media who dictates these ideas...
My offer still stands if you would rather invest in the common folk, and not government..
Avoid Mcane at all costs...
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Hillary is our only hope!
It is so funny how everyone seems to forget the Important things...Even the Democrates never brought it up...Why I will never know!
But then again he was never elected by the people was he!