"Surprisingly, the Labor Department reported that seasonally adjusted energy prices did not rise from March's levels. Though unadjusted gasoline prices were up 5.6% in April from a month earlier, seasonal adjustments made to that estimate resulted in gasoline prices being down 2% on that basis."
"Seasonal adjustments." Niiiiiice. How convenient. >>
It's been a long time since I read it and I don't remember the exact details, but that reminds me of the the book "1984". >>
I had to do a double take. In college I majored in math...I learned and understood some "strange cyphering" but I don't get Gov't math.
<< <i>Did I read that the Euro is complain because strong, and the Dollar is complain because weak?
and back when other currency weak like Yen and Dollar Strong, also complain?
maybe always complain instead of trying to profit from the cyclical behavior of markets? >>
I believe what you are witnessing coming out of the euro zone is called honesty. You see even thought the fix is in, the euro zone feels it is unethical to keep ripping off the public, and because the scam is still in its deceptive stage.
The America zone continues there deceptive media practices, wile guilt from the Euro zone has been influencing the government to come clean.
In other words they care more about there people than our government does. They have enjoyed very positive expectations when compared to the U.S. side, and are preparing for the negitive effect to hit them very hard. At least the are not trying to say they are not in a resection Like the U.S. have continued to say. >>
I see this as quite the opposite. I think the Europeans have had their head in the sand hoping that their own real estate and banking problems will just go away. The USA and Europe have been facing the same inflationary pressures, but only the USA has done anything about it. With lower interest rates the USA will be able to growth more quickly and resiliently than Europe. Is it better to have a job while paying higher prices or paying higher prices with no job?
I believe what you are witnessing coming out of the euro zone is called honesty. You see even though the fix is in, the euro zone feels it is unethical to keep ripping off the public, and because the scam is still in its deceptive stage.
The America zone continues there deceptive media practices, wile guilt from the Euro zone has been influencing the government to come clean.
In other words they care more about there people than our government does. They have enjoyed very positive expectations when compared to the U.S. side, and are preparing for the negative effect to hit them very hard. At least the are not trying to say they are not in a recession Like the U.S. has continued to say.
<< <i>I see this as quite the opposite. I think the Europeans have had their head in the sand hoping that their own real estate and banking problems will just go away. The USA and Europe have been facing the same inflationary pressures, but only the USA has done anything about it. With lower interest rates the USA will be able to growth more quickly and resiliently than Europe. Is it better to have a job while paying higher prices or paying higher prices with no job? >>
Perhaps a little of both is true, I think they did a good job of hiding there head. Consider all the reported numbers reported in the last 4 months. They all seemed pretty good with nothing very shocking to cause the euro zone to panic. JMHO the worst is yet to come for them, in the case of their own real estate and banking problems.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
- A book which ought to be re-examined every 5 years or so.
As I recall, Winston (and Julia) both worked in the massive governmental bureau of statistics, which revised historical facts daily in the newspaper and other publications.
The whole plot revolved around the inner workings of "the Party" and the general populace was only a peripheral consideration, except for the final realization that the only hope for mankind lied not within the Party, but in the masses.
Orwell's take on war, alliances, international affairs, and propaganda were chilling.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
- A book which ought to be re-examined every 5 years or so.
As I recall, Winston (and Julia) both worked in the massive governmental bureau of statistics, which revised historical facts daily in the newspaper and other publications.
The whole plot revolved around the inner workings of "the Party" and the general populace was only a peripheral consideration, except for the final realization that the only hope for mankind lied not within the Party, but in the masses.
Orwell's take on war, alliances, international affairs, and propaganda were chilling. >>
???????????? A very good read for some real insight past present future. Insert bio weapons in place of atomic bomb...
how do we as a nation take America back? Text This next article confirms in part the first. Very interesting.
Now that we see truth what can we do? they have the bio weapons, and the star wars plan in place. we are screwed. ! best vote Ron paul 2008, ya know he is still running! I am freaked out, the problem is you are not, at least not enough to do anything about it.!
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
Let me be clear. The truth is that the U.S. is not perfect, and that we've managed to import a bunch of serious problems, all while we were growing another whole set of problems.
Even so, I'd venture to say that the world would be much worse off if it weren't for the U.S. But, we keep making fatal errors. It won't continue on like this indefinitely.
Defending our interests outside our borders is not a mistake. Overstepping is.
Not defending our interests inside our own borders is a mistake. Doing something decisive about our internal problems is not.
Numbers alone don't matter, or else the far left and far right would have been put on a leash long ago. Vocal activism and action carry more weight than large apathetic numbers. Dissent is critical to a democratic republic, but allowing the small vocal minorities to run roughshod over everyone else is despicable.
If Americans remain quiet and passive, content to live off the fat of the land in their own cocoons at home - there will simply be no choices left. The choices will fall to the small activist minorities who would just as soon tear the place apart, take what they want and shove the rest of us into the sea. Is that clear enough?
Added: in keeping with the thread, gold and silver are about the only financial choices available that are not dependent upon political manipulation and payoffs. That doesn't mean they will perform without being tagged every now and then. It simply means that the markets are global, local and universal. At least you have a fighting chance of keeping what's yours with PMs.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>in keeping with the thread, gold and silver are about the only financial choices available that are not dependent upon political manipulation and payoffs. >>
Well as far as your take on things is concerned you have good insight, but keeping up with the political manipulation, and payoffs, I went the other way, and sold dollars today for yen..
I will be selling Euros when the time is right, when gold heads south...
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
there may be a time 'a comming when nothing will be able to stop the rising price of gold. it is so undervalued right now, due to manipulation, but the lid may blow, soon.
Gold gets hammered one day; the next day GW Bush is in Saudi, hat in hand, and gold takes off on a $20 run to the upside while oil is up to $126.00.
This is why I gravitate to PMs and continue to do so. Nothing makes sense because of the manipulation that is "designed" to quell fear in the stock, bonds and currency markets.
You can't plan a business, and you can't plan a retirement when the government is playing games with the dollar and finally loses control. Expect more of the same, only more volatile.
It's a mess.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I don't understand the heartburn with making seasonal adjustments. Otherwise, how could you compare the price of heating oil in November to the price in December when demand is much higher. Likewise with employment, you have to account for the increase in retail workers for the Christmas season to compare the two months. With year over year comparisons, it's not a problem. But with prior month comparisons it has to be done.
Another contrarian sign, IMO, that the dollar has nearly bottomed. When products are produced for the masses to play the current "hot bet," the run is likely close to other.
I don't understand the heartburn with making seasonal adjustments. Otherwise, how could you compare the price of heating oil in November to the price in December when demand is much higher. Likewise with employment, you have to account for the increase in retail workers for the Christmas season to compare the two months. With year over year comparisons, it's not a problem. But with prior month comparisons it has to be done.
What's wrong with comparing the price in November to the price in December? Nothing is wrong with that - so what if it changes? The price is the price, and it's higher in December because of the demand.
And temporary Christmas workers? Comparing month to month employment figures doesn't account for them, and somehow the numbers have to be adjusted to something else?
What a strange place this is.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Another contrarian sign, IMO, that the dollar has nearly bottomed. When products are produced for the masses to play the current "hot bet," the run is likely close to other. >>
The dollar can't achieve a real bottom until debt at the very least ceases its geometric increase.
This will merely be a pause before the next leg down.
“I don't understand the heartburn with making seasonal adjustments.”
Dac076
I think the problem that many of us have here with these adjusted numbers is that there are NO REAL NUMBERS, just adjustments. I can understand that publishing real numbers out of Washington would cost the Gov. additional billions of dollars each year in wage adjustments, S.C. benefit increases,additional interest on trillions of dollars of debt, but why LIE? Why promise folks they will get inflation adjustments and then cook the numbers?
No one in the economy that studies same believes any of this crap any more so why publish this junk period?
Well Chase just offered me 2.99% til balances are paid in full. I haven't seen that in over two years from any of my other CCs. Are the CCs finally easing up on credit.
This thread could sure use something posted that is at least fun and not so depressing, so here it is. Check out cnbc.com for the Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge
<< <i>Well Chase just offered me 2.99% til balances are paid in full. I haven't seen that in over two years from any of my other CCs. Are the CCs finally easing up on credit. >>
are you sure they are not charging you a special fee for doing this? also, if you are late they can and will give you a zombie rate
Tom, Thanks for the link, and or course Ron Paul is correct, Neo Cons are socialists!
For many of us Republicans the last eight years have certainly been a wake up call. Most of us believed that we would see substantial changes in our socialist government when we had republican control of the congress, the courts, and the Presidency. This of course did not occur, and now we find that our choices have been limited to the Republican socialist party and the Democratic socialist/communists.
This is why I believe that the system no longer has any chance of making a correction and will over the next few years simply fail!
<<I don't understand the heartburn with making seasonal adjustments. Otherwise, how could you compare the price of heating oil in November to the price in December when demand is much higher. Likewise with employment, you have to account for the increase in retail workers for the Christmas season to compare the two months. With year over year comparisons, it's not a problem. But with prior month comparisons it has to be done.>>
<<What's wrong with comparing the price in November to the price in December? Nothing is wrong with that - so what if it changes? The price is the price, and it's higher in December because of the demand.
And temporary Christmas workers? Comparing month to month employment figures doesn't account for them, and somehow the numbers have to be adjusted to something else?
What a strange place this is.>>
What's wrong is that you would be comparing apples and oranges. You can say that the price of oil was higher in December than in November, but it's meaningless if that's a cycle that happens every year. But if you make the adjustment for the seasonal change in demand, and still find a real increase, then that's meaningful. Nothing strange there, unless you think it's a deliberate misreporting of economic figures as a government conspiracy.
Gold closed over $900 today for the first time in weeks and broke the down trend line. Apparently the demise of gold (and the so-called repairs to the USD and credit liquidity markets) has been quite overstated....once again. Those waiting for $750-$810 to buy back in - just may have to settle for buying back in at $950-$1000 (ie the same levels they probably sold at on the way down). Another run at $1000 appears to be coming up. Add HELOC's to the laundry list of credit derivatives soon to become problematic for the banks. Investors are 100% wrong if they assume that the worst of sub- prime and all its off-spring have already been factored into the stock, bond, and commodity markets. Still in the 1st or 2nd inning.
An interesting graph on the JSMineset site shows the FED now carrying about 50% of "sub-prime junk" on its $800 BILL balance sheet, a far cry from the 90-95%+ in USTreasuries of only a year ago. Good news is that they can still swallow another $400 BILL in mortgage and bond junk.
From Jim Willie's 5/16/08 article:
The springtime corrections are really about done. They have gone on for a couple of months. The extent of the pullbacks have been tested and retested. The long-term trends are just about ready to asset themselves again. Grand deceptions have resumed to attempt to fool the public and the investment community that the worst is over for banks, housing, and mortgage bonds. That is not even remotely true. The deeply wounded banks, the sharply corrected home prices, and the badly damaged mortgage bonds have much more pain ahead. Nothing has been fixed. Many mortgage resets have yet to take place. The New Resolution Trust Corp to facilitate secondary mortgages, to bury dead mortgage bonds, and to renegotiate home loans is not even agreed upon, let alone installed. Its operation will be sometime in 2009 at the earliest. Until then, the system burns as foreclosures mount, inventory bloats, and home prices come down much more, guaranteeing another ugly storm of bank losses in mortgage bonds. The ultimate determining factor right now is home prices, which are accelerating down. Wall Street seems unwilling even to mention home prices, preferring to talk about bank liquidity concerns having been addressed. Except that bank capital is still negative. Sentiment is not good for gold, but it never is when the next upleg begins, the nature of the beast. Only the mentally tough, the well informed, and the unshakable types are loaded with gold & silver when the uplegs begin. The bull market in metals and bear market in US$-based paper is ready to resume.
Using the BLS's own data base, Cooke comes up with an 8.1% "underemployment" rate which is far more useful in describing those really out of work and more in line with reality.
Stagflation Globally (excerpt from Richard Gorton - Financialsense) Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports that price pressures across the emerging world are reaching levels that may soon threaten stability unless governments jam on the brakes. Inflation rates have reached: Venezuela (22pc), Vietnam (21pc), Latvia (18pc), Qatar (17pc), Pakistan (17pc), Egypt (16pc) Bulgaria (15pc), The Emirates (11pc), Estonia (11pc), Turkey (9.7), Indonesia (9pc) Saudi Arabia (9.6pc), Argentina (8.9pc), Romania (8.6pc), China (8.5pc), Philippines (8.3pc), India (7.6pc).
Meanwhile as the world experiences strongly rising inflation, the "stated" annual USA CPI is approx 4% and only 0.2% this past month. Maybe those nations need a course in massaged govt statistics, preferably given by a distinguished BLS or BEA economist. Can't those countries just substitute something else more available and cheaper for rice and wheat? That's what our BLS would do by using the substitution effect. When steak costs too much they shift us to hamburg. And when hamburg costs too much they shift us to dog food or soy. So if the BLS had its way with those stats, they'd shift those nations from rice to ground tree bark or mulch and show no effective price inflation....therefore a no or low inflation headline.
<< <i>Tom, Thanks for the link, and or course Ron Paul is correct, Neo Cons are socialists!
For many of us Republicans the last eight years have certainly been a wake up call. Most of us believed that we would see substantial changes in our socialist government when we had republican control of the congress, the courts, and the Presidency. This of course did not occur, and now we find that our choices have been limited to the Republican socialist party and the Democratic socialist/communists.
This is why I believe that the system no longer has any chance of making a correction and will over the next few years simply fail! >>
I would like to attend the republican convention ONLY to support Dr Paul and protest the rest of the bas-tards.
I'm extremely bearish of US stock indices so keep that in mind for what I'm about to say. The breakout above 1422 is a concern and a bit of a surprise to me, but it doesn't change my bearish view. There are 4 key elements to support the bearish case in my view:
1) Five waves down from the 2007 highs can be counted in the Nasdaq and S&P, suggesting we still have new lows to go; whether that be a C wave to complete a correction, or monstrous downtrend leading to a depression.
2) This is entire rally the past couple months has been with overlapping waves and more importantly, consistently decreasing volume. So price is rising while volume is falling. This is not the characteristics of a new bull market, but much more like a bear market rally.
3) Momentum is weakening as seen in the MACD and stochastic oscillator as they haven't been confirming new highs in price the past few weeks. Plus, the Nasdaq's daily stochastic is crossing down which could confirm a strong bearish divergence shortly.
4) None of the major indices have broken any crucial trend lines, retracement levels, or resistance levels that will eliminate the bearish case. And from what I can see, the rally is severely weakening. And with all the rallying and noise the past couple weeks, the Dow has done practically nothing. So don't be fooled by the price action, the fundamental underpinnings to this rally are suspect at best.
So unless the market surges from current levels with solid breadth and a huge volume spike, I see the stock market on the edge of a cliff to new lows. going back to what you brought up, that bit of chaos and irrationality you speak of in oil, the carry trade, the dollar, and the stock market might all signals of a major impending trend change. Chaos and irrational movements tend to occur at major tops/bottoms. I feel that trend change will be the stock market, and risk, crashing down. So I'm making trades in conjunction with that. I'm mainly looking at the Nasdaq, it has the clearest wave structure and appears to lead the way for the entire stock market. I think the seriously key level for the Nasdaq Composite is at the 2600 level which is about where the 61% fibonacci level is and a gap from earlier in the year. But Friday, although it seemed like a flat day, may actually be significant because the Nasdaq lagged the Dow and S&P on a percentage basis for the first time in about 5 trading days. This, combined with the chaos in the forex and commodity markets you mentioned, may signal a top is at hand in the stock market. The result will be a huge wave 3 or C down to break the lows on the year. Trade forex and commodities accordingly.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
What trades are you making regarding the nasdaq? >>
individual stock, such as the financial s have recovered to a point, I would speculate they will fall. I trade forex, but use the stock market in part as a gauge, and to see the big picture.
If I was a buyer, NJ natural gas, cable vision, GE, Boeing, any play that has been over worked to the downside, that has good fundamentals. I could check my portfolio, and tell you some good stocks to look at if you like? CREE research was a good one. maybe a couple airline may be good buy right about now, but I always research before any new buy.
Cramer is the man. It may be much easier in this environment to pick the looser, and go short.
I was short dollars, made money, im talking 100% profits in a couple of days. Right now im short the Australian dollar, but it may have a little bit more to the top side before it really tanks.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
I find it very amusing that now that the fed has said it would take crap in exchange for treasuries, that the banks are working overtime to give them exactly that. They are working very hard to package any and all fishy derivatives and level 3 assets and are loading the fed up.
Let's hope we dont have a collapse in the bond market.
This stock market has been referred to as an Oreo market. Stocks will do poorly the early part of 2008, then stocks will hit the soft filling and do better in the middle of the year then hit the back end cookie and do poorly again the latter part of the year.
What trades are you making regarding the nasdaq? >>
individual stock, such as the financial s have recovered to a point, I would speculate they will fall. I trade forex, but use the stock market in part as a gauge, and to see the big picture.
If I was a buyer, NJ natural gas, cable vision, GE, Boeing, any play that has been over worked to the downside, that has good fundamentals. I could check my portfolio, and tell you some good stocks to look at if you like? CREE research was a good one. maybe a couple airline may be good buy right about now, but I always research before any new buy.
Cramer is the man. It may be much easier in this environment to pick the looser, and go short.
I was short dollars, made money, im talking 100% profits in a couple of days. Right now im short the Australian dollar, but it may have a little bit more to the top side before it really tanks. >>
Just wondering because you said the market was going lower, yet all your recommendations are on the long side. I dont see the sense of trying to swim upstream, if the current is so strong. How should I play a downward trending (crashing) nasdaq?
It would be wonderful for gold, but I would rather have a solution that brings transparency back to the banking system with proper regulation than a big run up in gold. I am in gold/silver/commodities in case we have a collapse, not because I want one.
A bond market collapse would throw us into a depression that would take a generation to recover from at the least.
It would be wonderful for gold, but I would rather have a solution that brings transparency back to the banking system with proper regulation than a big run up in gold. I am in gold/silver/commodities in case we have a collapse, not because I want one.
A bond market collapse would throw us into a depression that would take a generation to recover from at the least.
J >>
Agreed. But IMO, a generation will be needed anyway. The current generation spent like hell, now they are worried about their retirement and need to save like hell. Will their cut back in spending due to the need to save and the higher costs to live, depress the living standards of those right behind?
<< <i> Agreed. But IMO, a generation will be needed anyway. The current generation spent like hell, now they are worried about their retirement and need to save like hell. Will their cut back in spending due to the need to save and the higher costs to live, depress the living standards of those right behind? >>
You could not have made a more telling and chilling prediction.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>Inflation? What inflation?
"Surprisingly, the Labor Department reported that seasonally adjusted energy prices did not rise from March's levels. Though unadjusted gasoline prices were up 5.6% in April from a month earlier, seasonal adjustments made to that estimate resulted in gasoline prices being down 2% on that basis."
"Seasonal adjustments." Niiiiiice. How convenient. >>
It's been a long time since I read it and I don't remember the exact details, but that reminds me of the the book "1984". >>
I had to do a double take. In college I majored in math...I learned and understood some "strange cyphering" but I don't get Gov't math.
GS, mh, good posts!
No Obama-nation!
Ren
6699
<< <i>
<< <i>Did I read that the Euro is complain because strong, and the Dollar is complain because weak?
and back when other currency weak like Yen and Dollar Strong, also complain?
maybe always complain instead of trying to profit from the cyclical behavior of markets? >>
I believe what you are witnessing coming out of the euro zone is called honesty.
You see even thought the fix is in, the euro zone feels it is unethical to keep ripping off the public, and because the scam is still in its deceptive stage.
The America zone continues there deceptive media practices, wile guilt from the Euro zone has been influencing the government to come clean.
In other words they care more about there people than our government does. They have enjoyed very positive expectations when compared to the U.S. side, and are preparing for the negitive effect to hit them very hard. At least the are not trying to say they are not in a resection Like the U.S. have continued to say. >>
I see this as quite the opposite. I think the Europeans have had their head in the sand hoping that their own real estate and banking problems will just go away. The USA and Europe have been facing the same inflationary pressures, but only the USA has done anything about it. With lower interest rates the USA will be able to growth more quickly and resiliently than Europe. Is it better to have a job while paying higher prices or paying higher prices with no job?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You see even though the fix is in, the euro zone feels it is unethical to keep ripping off the public, and because the scam is still in its deceptive stage.
The America zone continues there deceptive media practices, wile guilt from the Euro zone has been influencing the government to come clean.
In other words they care more about there people than our government does. They have enjoyed very positive expectations when compared to the U.S. side, and are preparing for the negative effect to hit them very hard. At least the are not trying to say they are not in a recession Like the U.S. has continued to say.
<< <i>I see this as quite the opposite. I think the Europeans have had their head in the sand hoping that their own real estate and banking problems will just go away. The USA and Europe have been facing the same inflationary pressures, but only the USA has done anything about it. With lower interest rates the USA will be able to growth more quickly and resiliently than Europe. Is it better to have a job while paying higher prices or paying higher prices with no job? >>
Perhaps a little of both is true, I think they did a good job of hiding there head. Consider all the reported numbers reported in the last 4 months.
They all seemed pretty good with nothing very shocking to cause the euro zone to panic. JMHO the worst is yet to come for them, in the case of their own real estate and banking problems.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
- A book which ought to be re-examined every 5 years or so.
As I recall, Winston (and Julia) both worked in the massive governmental bureau of statistics, which revised historical facts daily in the newspaper and other publications.
The whole plot revolved around the inner workings of "the Party" and the general populace was only a peripheral consideration, except for the final realization that the only hope for mankind lied not within the Party, but in the masses.
Orwell's take on war, alliances, international affairs, and propaganda were chilling.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>reminds me of the the book "1984"
- A book which ought to be re-examined every 5 years or so.
As I recall, Winston (and Julia) both worked in the massive governmental bureau of statistics, which revised historical facts daily in the newspaper and other publications.
The whole plot revolved around the inner workings of "the Party" and the general populace was only a peripheral consideration, except for the final realization that the only hope for mankind lied not within the Party, but in the masses.
Orwell's take on war, alliances, international affairs, and propaganda were chilling. >>
???????????? A very good read for some real insight past present future. Insert bio weapons in place of atomic bomb...
how do we as a nation take America back? Text This next article confirms in part the first. Very interesting.
Now that we see truth what can we do? they have the bio weapons, and the star wars plan in place. we are screwed.
! best vote Ron paul 2008, ya know he is still running! I am freaked out, the problem is you are not, at least not enough to do anything about it.!
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
You guys need another racehorse.
unemployment benefits rose 6,000 to 371,000, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in the week ending May 10. S
[Gold futures rise after economic data ]
http://www.market-watch.com/news/story/gold-futures-rise-after-economic/story.aspx?guid={8D89621D-2E9D-4D68-9732-C08D55431889}&siteid=rss
I would have posted this as a link but market watch together get's filtered. So remove the "-" between Market Watch to view the link.
Let me be clear. The truth is that the U.S. is not perfect, and that we've managed to import a bunch of serious problems, all while we were growing another whole set of problems.
Even so, I'd venture to say that the world would be much worse off if it weren't for the U.S. But, we keep making fatal errors. It won't continue on like this indefinitely.
Defending our interests outside our borders is not a mistake. Overstepping is.
Not defending our interests inside our own borders is a mistake. Doing something decisive about our internal problems is not.
Numbers alone don't matter, or else the far left and far right would have been put on a leash long ago. Vocal activism and action carry more weight than large apathetic numbers. Dissent is critical to a democratic republic, but allowing the small vocal minorities to run roughshod over everyone else is despicable.
If Americans remain quiet and passive, content to live off the fat of the land in their own cocoons at home - there will simply be no choices left. The choices will fall to the small activist minorities who would just as soon tear the place apart, take what they want and shove the rest of us into the sea. Is that clear enough?
Added: in keeping with the thread, gold and silver are about the only financial choices available that are not dependent upon political manipulation and payoffs. That doesn't mean they will perform without being tagged every now and then. It simply means that the markets are global, local and universal. At least you have a fighting chance of keeping what's yours with PMs.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>in keeping with the thread, gold and silver are about the only financial choices available that are not dependent upon political manipulation and payoffs. >>
Well as far as your take on things is concerned you have good insight, but keeping up with the political manipulation, and payoffs, I went the other way, and sold dollars today for yen..
I will be selling Euros when the time is right, when gold heads south...
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
What deptatment do I see to get the seasonal adjustment in my pay check?
Yeah, that's what I'm talkin' about!
This is why I gravitate to PMs and continue to do so. Nothing makes sense because of the manipulation that is "designed" to quell fear in the stock, bonds and currency markets.
You can't plan a business, and you can't plan a retirement when the government is playing games with the dollar and finally loses control. Expect more of the same, only more volatile.
It's a mess.
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
Currency etfs
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Wisdom Tree has just launched some new currency ETFs. The currency boat sure is getting heavy.
Currency etfs >>
Another contrarian sign, IMO, that the dollar has nearly bottomed. When products are produced for the masses to play the current "hot bet," the run is likely close to other.
What's wrong with comparing the price in November to the price in December? Nothing is wrong with that - so what if it changes? The price is the price, and it's higher in December because of the demand.
And temporary Christmas workers? Comparing month to month employment figures doesn't account for them, and somehow the numbers have to be adjusted to something else?
What a strange place this is.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Wisdom Tree has just launched some new currency ETFs. The currency boat sure is getting heavy.
Currency etfs >>
Another contrarian sign, IMO, that the dollar has nearly bottomed. When products are produced for the masses to play the current "hot bet," the run is likely close to other. >>
The dollar can't achieve a real bottom until debt at the very least ceases its geometric increase.
This will merely be a pause before the next leg down.
<< <i>Wisdom Tree has just launched some new currency ETFs. The currency boat sure is getting heavy.
Currency etfs >>
good that means it's all gonna tank soon
“I don't understand the heartburn with making seasonal adjustments.”
Dac076
I think the problem that many of us have here with these adjusted numbers is that there are NO REAL NUMBERS, just adjustments. I can understand that publishing real numbers out of Washington would cost the Gov. additional billions of dollars each year in wage adjustments, S.C. benefit increases,additional interest on trillions of dollars of debt, but why LIE? Why promise folks they will get inflation adjustments and then cook the numbers?
No one in the economy that studies same believes any of this crap any more so why publish this junk period?
This thread could sure use something posted that is at least fun and not so depressing, so here it is. Check out cnbc.com for the Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge
Box of 20
His reasoning is more people are charging everyday expenses without the possibility of paying them off.
I kind of buy his reasoning (pardon the pun).
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>Well Chase just offered me 2.99% til balances are paid in full. I haven't seen that in over two years from any of my other CCs. Are the CCs finally easing up on credit.
>>
are you sure they are not charging you a special fee for doing this? also, if you are late they can and will give you a zombie rate
Dr Paul Names Neocons
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Thanks for the link, and or course Ron Paul is correct, Neo Cons are socialists!
For many of us Republicans the last eight years have certainly been a wake up call.
Most of us believed that we would see substantial changes in our socialist government when we had republican control of the congress, the courts, and the Presidency. This of course did not occur, and now we find that our choices have been limited to the Republican socialist party and the Democratic socialist/communists.
This is why I believe that the system no longer has any chance of making a correction and will over the next few years simply fail!
Camelot
<<What's wrong with comparing the price in November to the price in December? Nothing is wrong with that - so what if it changes? The price is the price, and it's higher in December because of the demand.
And temporary Christmas workers? Comparing month to month employment figures doesn't account for them, and somehow the numbers have to be adjusted to something else?
What a strange place this is.>>
What's wrong is that you would be comparing apples and oranges. You can say that the price of oil was higher in December than in November, but it's meaningless if that's a cycle that happens every year. But if you make the adjustment for the seasonal change in demand, and still find a real increase, then that's meaningful. Nothing strange there, unless you think it's a deliberate misreporting of economic figures as a government conspiracy.
<< <i>the dollar tanks to the yen.
Bush said he has not been informed on GDP # coming out tomorrow. How can this be?
I have already been briefed, the # will come in OK.
the yen will come in better, and out perfom.
your prediction, you have been briefed.
Your president is a bold faced Lier! >>
Toot..
I'm not like that, but in this case.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
An interesting graph on the JSMineset site shows the FED now carrying about 50% of "sub-prime junk" on its $800 BILL balance sheet, a far cry from the 90-95%+ in USTreasuries of only a year ago. Good news is that they can still swallow another $400 BILL in mortgage and bond junk.
From Jim Willie's 5/16/08 article:
The springtime corrections are really about done. They have gone on for a couple of months. The extent of the pullbacks have been tested and retested. The long-term trends are just about ready to asset themselves again. Grand deceptions have resumed to attempt to fool the public and the investment community that the worst is over for banks, housing, and mortgage bonds. That is not even remotely true. The deeply wounded banks, the sharply corrected home prices, and the badly damaged mortgage bonds have much more pain ahead. Nothing has been fixed. Many mortgage resets have yet to take place. The New Resolution Trust Corp to facilitate secondary mortgages, to bury dead mortgage bonds, and to renegotiate home loans is not even agreed upon, let alone installed. Its operation will be sometime in 2009 at the earliest. Until then, the system burns as foreclosures mount, inventory bloats, and home prices come down much more, guaranteeing another ugly storm of bank losses in mortgage bonds. The ultimate determining factor right now is home prices, which are accelerating down. Wall Street seems unwilling even to mention home prices, preferring to talk about bank liquidity concerns having been addressed. Except that bank capital is still negative. Sentiment is not good for gold, but it never is when the next upleg begins, the nature of the beast. Only the mentally tough, the well informed, and the unshakable types are loaded with gold & silver when the uplegs begin. The bull market in metals and bear market in US$-based paper is ready to resume.
Ron Cooke - unemployment is not 5%
Using the BLS's own data base, Cooke comes up with an 8.1% "underemployment" rate which is far more useful in describing those really out of work and more in line with reality.
Stagflation Globally (excerpt from Richard Gorton - Financialsense)
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports that price pressures across the emerging world are reaching levels that may soon threaten stability unless governments jam on the brakes. Inflation rates have reached: Venezuela (22pc), Vietnam (21pc), Latvia (18pc), Qatar (17pc), Pakistan (17pc), Egypt (16pc) Bulgaria (15pc), The Emirates (11pc), Estonia (11pc), Turkey (9.7), Indonesia (9pc) Saudi Arabia (9.6pc), Argentina (8.9pc), Romania (8.6pc), China (8.5pc), Philippines (8.3pc), India (7.6pc).
Meanwhile as the world experiences strongly rising inflation, the "stated" annual USA CPI is approx 4% and only 0.2% this past month. Maybe those nations need a course in massaged govt statistics, preferably given by a distinguished BLS or BEA economist. Can't those countries just substitute something else more available and cheaper for rice and wheat? That's what our BLS would do by using the substitution effect. When steak costs too much they shift us to hamburg. And when hamburg costs too much they shift us to dog food or soy. So if the BLS had its way with those stats, they'd shift those nations from rice to ground tree bark or mulch and show no effective price inflation....therefore a no or low inflation headline.
roadrunner
Series: BORROW, Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve
Linkified
Series: BOGNONBR, Non-Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions
Linkified
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Tom,
Thanks for the link, and or course Ron Paul is correct, Neo Cons are socialists!
For many of us Republicans the last eight years have certainly been a wake up call.
Most of us believed that we would see substantial changes in our socialist government when we had republican control of the congress, the courts, and the Presidency. This of course did not occur, and now we find that our choices have been limited to the Republican socialist party and the Democratic socialist/communists.
This is why I believe that the system no longer has any chance of making a correction and will over the next few years simply fail! >>
I would like to attend the republican convention ONLY to support Dr Paul and protest the rest of the bas-tards.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
1) Five waves down from the 2007 highs can be counted in the Nasdaq and S&P, suggesting we still have new lows to go; whether that be a C wave to complete a correction, or monstrous downtrend leading to a depression.
2) This is entire rally the past couple months has been with overlapping waves and more importantly, consistently decreasing volume. So price is rising while volume is falling. This is not the characteristics of a new bull market, but much more like a bear market rally.
3) Momentum is weakening as seen in the MACD and stochastic oscillator as they haven't been confirming new highs in price the past few weeks. Plus, the Nasdaq's daily stochastic is crossing down which could confirm a strong bearish divergence shortly.
4) None of the major indices have broken any crucial trend lines, retracement levels, or resistance levels that will eliminate the bearish case. And from what I can see, the rally is severely weakening. And with all the rallying and noise the past couple weeks, the Dow has done practically nothing. So don't be fooled by the price action, the fundamental underpinnings to this rally are suspect at best.
So unless the market surges from current levels with solid breadth and a huge volume spike, I see the stock market on the edge of a cliff to new lows. going back to what you brought up, that bit of chaos and irrationality you speak of in oil, the carry trade, the dollar, and the stock market might all signals of a major impending trend change. Chaos and irrational movements tend to occur at major tops/bottoms. I feel that trend change will be the stock market, and risk, crashing down. So I'm making trades in conjunction with that. I'm mainly looking at the Nasdaq, it has the clearest wave structure and appears to lead the way for the entire stock market. I think the seriously key level for the Nasdaq Composite is at the 2600 level which is about where the 61% fibonacci level is and a gap from earlier in the year. But Friday, although it seemed like a flat day, may actually be significant because the Nasdaq lagged the Dow and S&P on a percentage basis for the first time in about 5 trading days. This, combined with the chaos in the forex and commodity markets you mentioned, may signal a top is at hand in the stock market. The result will be a huge wave 3 or C down to break the lows on the year. Trade forex and commodities accordingly.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
slver? from this weekend WSJ
What trades are you making regarding the nasdaq?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>thestig,
What trades are you making regarding the nasdaq? >>
individual stock, such as the financial s have recovered to a point, I would speculate they will fall.
I trade forex, but use the stock market in part as a gauge, and to see the big picture.
If I was a buyer, NJ natural gas, cable vision, GE, Boeing, any play that has been over worked to the downside, that has good fundamentals.
I could check my portfolio, and tell you some good stocks to look at if you like?
CREE research was a good one.
maybe a couple airline may be good buy right about now, but I always research before any new buy.
Cramer is the man. It may be much easier in this environment to pick the looser, and go short.
I was short dollars, made money, im talking 100% profits in a couple of days.
Right now im short the Australian dollar, but it may have a little bit more to the top side before it really tanks.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
They are working very hard to package any and all fishy derivatives and level 3 assets and are loading the fed up.
Let's hope we dont have a collapse in the bond market.
siliconvalleycoins.com
Stocks will do poorly the early part of 2008, then stocks
will hit the soft filling and do better in the middle of the year
then hit the back end cookie and do poorly again the
latter part of the year.
Camelot
<< <i>
<< <i>thestig,
What trades are you making regarding the nasdaq? >>
individual stock, such as the financial s have recovered to a point, I would speculate they will fall.
I trade forex, but use the stock market in part as a gauge, and to see the big picture.
If I was a buyer, NJ natural gas, cable vision, GE, Boeing, any play that has been over worked to the downside, that has good fundamentals.
I could check my portfolio, and tell you some good stocks to look at if you like?
CREE research was a good one.
maybe a couple airline may be good buy right about now, but I always research before any new buy.
Cramer is the man. It may be much easier in this environment to pick the looser, and go short.
I was short dollars, made money, im talking 100% profits in a couple of days.
Right now im short the Australian dollar, but it may have a little bit more to the top side before it really tanks. >>
Just wondering because you said the market was going lower, yet all your recommendations are on the long side. I dont see the sense of trying to swim upstream, if the current is so strong. How should I play a downward trending (crashing) nasdaq?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A collapsing bond market may be gold's best friend.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
It would be wonderful for gold, but I would rather have a solution that brings transparency back to the banking system with proper regulation than a big run up in gold.
I am in gold/silver/commodities in case we have a collapse, not because I want one.
A bond market collapse would throw us into a depression that would take a generation to recover from at the least.
J
siliconvalleycoins.com
<< <i>Let's hope we dont have a collapse in the bond market.
A collapsing bond market may be gold's best friend. >>
look for stocks that are cheap, and trade in a range.
A speculative buy AMD.AMD trading range
A speculative sell ILMN Chart looks like its exhausted.
Your not going to make the kind of money being made trading forex, but if you trade stocks here are a couple examples.
Make a prediction.
chart
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>cohodk,
It would be wonderful for gold, but I would rather have a solution that brings transparency back to the banking system with proper regulation than a big run up in gold.
I am in gold/silver/commodities in case we have a collapse, not because I want one.
A bond market collapse would throw us into a depression that would take a generation to recover from at the least.
J >>
Agreed. But IMO, a generation will be needed anyway. The current generation spent like hell, now they are worried about their retirement and need to save like hell. Will their cut back in spending due to the need to save and the higher costs to live, depress the living standards of those right behind?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
siliconvalleycoins.com
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You said:
<< <i>
Agreed. But IMO, a generation will be needed anyway. The current generation spent like hell, now they are worried about their retirement and need to save like hell. Will their cut back in spending due to the need to save and the higher costs to live, depress the living standards of those right behind? >>
You could not have made a more telling and chilling prediction.
siliconvalleycoins.com