<< <i>something that might be of significance in marking a top to the stock market. I just looked at the VIX (Volatility Index) and noticed it just dipped to its lowest level in the past year. The last time it dipped closest to this level was October 9th, 2007. And as you all probably know, a couple days later the Dow dropped over 2000 points. So the lack of volatility is worse than that of the Oct. 2007 top, and at the same time all the indices are tapping key resistance levels, and on pathetic volume. Today's volume is setting up to be another horribly low day. Plus, the Nadaq indices are lagging both the S&P and Dow. This seems to me to be immediately bearish (i.e. next day or two). >>
wow...
WOW! >>
day 2 the slide is accelerating. should America stand by and hope for the best?
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
Why cant we be like Europe and get 4 weeks paid vacation
I get over 5 weeks paid vacation not including holidays and use every day. I don't work for the gov't but have been with the same company(advertising agency) for 21 years.
Can it be we have the power to see the future as proposed by understanding charts, and Fibonacci retracement? >>
No.
There are lots of safe and reliable ways to predict the future but they all can fail on minor points or in the shorter term. They all do fail in the long term and they fail otherwise. All of nature is chaotic. We see patterns because because we're wired that way.
The problem with predicting is that the things which determine the future happen in the future. A method works only until it stops working.
<< <i>"The problem with predicting is that the things which determine the future happen in the future. A method works only until it stops working."
<< <i>
<< <i>Be careful stig.
A traders worse enemy is overconfidence. >>
Thanks for the advice, but it is time to sell dollars to the yen. with a bounce off the 61% fib level 104.40
you should see a rising triangle unfold touching 104.40 sometime today . >>
Ah, the clarity in thought is refreshing. >>
Indeed..
100% profit 1 day. If the correction represents a wave 4 , then the bounce off the 61% re-trace should hold. wave 5 will be deep. that would take the Euro to a new high, and gold along with it.
If wave 4 represents a new count, then wave 3 up will take this to a new High past 105.00. I don't think thats the case, the dollar should continue to slide.
If not we have a new count, possibly a short term reversal. Im sure the market would like to get the dollar back up to the 106.00 level before they short dollars again.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
The AP reports that the city of Vallejo has filed for bankruptcy protection to deal with a ballooning budget deficit caused soaring employee costs and declining tax revenue. The San Francisco Bay area suburb of about 120,000 residents is the largest California city to declare bankruptcy. Mayor Osby Davis says the city's attorneys filed papers seeking Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection in federal court in Sacramento on Friday. The City Council voted to authorize the city manager to file for bankruptcy on May 6 after months of failed negotiations with its public safety unions. Some officials blame the financial crisis on labor contracts they say provide overly generous pay and benefits to the city's police officers and firefighters.
<< <i>Maybe they should have outsourced...........
The AP reports that the city of Vallejo has filed for bankruptcy protection to deal with a ballooning budget deficit caused soaring employee costs and declining tax revenue. The San Francisco Bay area suburb of about 120,000 residents is the largest California city to declare bankruptcy. Mayor Osby Davis says the city's attorneys filed papers seeking Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection in federal court in Sacramento on Friday. The City Council voted to authorize the city manager to file for bankruptcy on May 6 after months of failed negotiations with its public safety unions. Some officials blame the financial crisis on labor contracts they say provide overly generous pay and benefits to the city's police officers and firefighters. >>
one wonders why pensions even exist for govt workers when they are long gone for almost everyone else. these people will take, take and take until the well has ran dry. MA is a perfect example of the greed of these people in their positions and they know every trick in the book to maxamize it. pathetic all around.
<< <i>Maybe they should have outsourced...........
one wonders why pensions even exist for govt workers when they are long gone for almost everyone else. these people will take, take and take until the well has ran dry. MA is a perfect example of the greed of these people in their positions and they know every trick in the book to maxamize it. pathetic all around. >>
If I remember correctly, way back when the government was full of slugs and wasn't very efficient (laugh now) they put together amazing benefits to lure good hard working people. They gave out great retirement bene's, free public transportation passes, great medical coverage, higher PTO allowances, and even free gym memberships to the upper middle class gyms. It worked, all kinds of people came to work and there were (I must admit) a lot of efficiencies gained.... Then came stronger unions who argued that they were not getting a fair wage, never mind all the benefits and days off (they're so hard working). To boot they remodeled buildings and got all new office furniture and highly expensive computer systems.
Then, the government added all kinds of regulations and policies to make government work better. And of course don't forget, they have pay scales to keep all things "fair". So, now the few slugs that were pushed out have came back. They're now protected and guaranteed an annual increase in pay, plus merit base plus shift differential. Doncha love it?
I use a screen capture to capture the image, then I use edit to post them here. the live charts give you a way to view the action as it unfolds, and also has a good set of integrated tools, FREE.. Here is a beginner lesson. wave 3, and 5 are the big ones, these you can enter after a pattern is clear. A wave count refers to the letters, and numbers you assign to the wave, if wave labels are clear, you then will enter on the correct side of the trade, short or long. In this environment the market is following the wave principle very closely. Profit can be huge, if you factor in relative information, sometimes its best to do the opposite of what the media says is true. (they Lie) Actually thy been lying to the public ever since December. They will eventually be right, but not until there long term goals are reached. Government included they have there hands dirty.... remember the rogue trader? A dirty plant to get the euro high enough to effect the market they way they needed it to. 30 billion is nothing to sneeze at. That info was leaked the night the euro ran up, a free gift. Anyway the Most important thing to have is patience, and protecting your risks. adding a stop limit can save you if you enter the wrong side of the bet, also it gives you a little breathing room that allows the magic to happen according to the correct count. Sorry for the messy chart. yesterday the timing could not have been better, as it bounced precisely were it should have.
Patterns begin to unfold, as Time moves forward, if you have a good understanding what the market will do in the near future, (trade accordingly). The waves, and sub waves become clearer. How to find the correct wave to trade? a wave 3, or 5 ,or a wave c are the only waves you need be concerned with. There are allot of different patterns you will become familiar with as you study your charts. Practice labeling the waves, and sub waves. These are some basic principles to follow, and will help you get a clear view of a chart, and what patterns you are seeing. We had the dollar fall off its recent high, the trend for the dollar was down for the last 20 years. The Australian dollar has reach a 17 year high, this one will correct eventually to the downside. Its these corrections that increase your knowledge, and will give you a clear long term outlook. Historically we learn from the past. There are many different patterns that can be traded, a rising flag pole with a descending triangle. This pattern is just like the one I see with the Aulstralian dollar. The trade was higher on two occasions, the first correction is underway. This should be a 3 wave correction down, but never cast in stone. Become familiar with chart terms, this should be a priority, the more patterns you see, the better your skill will become. For instance a head, and shoulders may represent a bearish outlook. A trade that gets squeezed into a tighter triangle represent a larger move is near, up, or down. the descending flat, may represent the chart will make a turn for the worst. Study up, because this is your generations big boom. You should not stay still, and miss the boat. The Euro trade will have a big correction down, once it tests a new high this year, While the dollar should test a new low. Why should the market only profit in these tough times? Hopefully we will avoid a depression, and the dollar will recover. Its these reversals in a stock, or currency chart that generally take many years to completely correct after a long run up, or decent.
$1200 is the next leg up from here though we might bounce off $1000 one more time. We could see $1200 this year but my guess is more than likely in the first quarter of 2009. While a retest to $850 is certainly still plausible, it is certainly not the case where $850 is the long term number in 2009-2011. Once past $1000 for the 2nd time, I doubt we will ever see sub-$850 gold ever again. $1500-$2500 gold is essentially in the bag by 2011, and that is assuming the same FED sanctioned manipulations along the way. Should they lose their "guiding" hand, about any number in the $3,000-$10,000 is technically possible.
Bottom line, nothing is fixed in the economy and the banks are trying to come up with less-stringent margin requirements for their TRILLIONs in near-worthless derivatives. And you can bet the FED will accomodate the larger banks and brokerages so they won't have to declare bankruptcy. It will take to 2011 to wade through the OTC schlock among the $600 TRILLION in derivatives that now exist. The banks cannot afford to deal with this in any other fashion than piece-meal. They will continue to drag their feet towards true accounting of the mess and every few months they will "find" new losses in their portfolio's that some "rouge" trader kept hidden from their benevolent management (lol).
A nice 10% move in gold and gold stocks over the past 6 weeks for those who got back in at the $850 level. Some gold stocks like Yamana they were extremely beat down have gained 25% in that same period. If there ever was a give-away in gold stocks, Yamana was the one when it was taken down >36% from the March highs, this in an environment where hard assets are about the only true protection from unchecked inflation. True gold producers like Yamana, Agnico-Eagle, Freeport, Goldcorp were overly beat down and have come back strong. They will likely be industry leaders for years to come. Those producers are often the whipping posts of the PPT and suffer larger losses when the FED wants to see gold taken down. But Freeport's large stake in copper made it immune to the cartel's effects of the past few weeks.
Peter Schiff has a concise way of stating reality. Too bad our own politicians can't figure the true reason why oil prices are up (hint...it isn't the oil companies).
<< <i>I'd vote for a still higher run towards $960-$990 before gold pulls back. Just a hunch.
roadrunner >>
<< <i>That B wave you posted thestig is bullish...it breaks the bearish h and s that gold is dealing with now. >>
You may be right, it does look bullish, but then that means the dollar will get hit, and the Euro will go higher. That is my initial outlook anyhow, but i know there will be that manipulation coming back in all markets soon. No reason to think all will be A - OK before 2009 ends. Long term for me is like 3 days. roadrunner may be on to something.. B has not been reached yet in the chart. A 3 wave correction would take it down to c.. I think oil is on its last leg that will take it back up to a new high. Then feel free to go short.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
Many commodities have gone parabolic in the last 6 months. Some have corrected virtually all the move, ie wheat, while others have merely consolidated, ie silver and platinum. Gold has not yet enjoyed a parabolic move. My crystal ball tells me that a parabolic move could indeed be possible.
I agree with 850 as a base with not much downside from there other than short term plunges because I am anticipating that the need for hard assets in the market to offset paper errors and that will lead to some significant sales. Short term 850 is not hard to live with. 1200 is the next major point to be crossed since we have enjoyed 1000 and we all know it is very possible with any help at all and it could even be there soon though it doesn't seem that likely. The bad part is that if we do see 1200 gold, there will be severe pain in other areas and even more pain as gold rises further. As gold rises, it will be a response to poor performance in other areas. Once we have met with 1200, probably in '09 then we really can start speculating on where to from there but from here and for right now, it is extreemly hard to see past 1200.
I could be very comfortable believing that 1200 in '09 is the 900 we will likely be living with during much of '08. We can't predict the future but we can see that there is truly too much paper floating around and at some point, someone big is going to ask for their money in either hard assets or in a stronger currency and that's when gold will transition into the safe haven both for getting liquidity into paper assets and for finding safety from worthless paper. It should be a long 12 month or so transition to more stability in the market place and if history proves itself, gold will be the hub for this movement to stability. This is not just guessing for me, I have a fair amount of my assets in PM, particularly in gold and I'm in mostly at 650 and don't need to sell nor am I in the mood to take a profit at less than 900 so, I feel good with 850, am comfortable with 900 as a good, healthy consolidation price. I would like to see 1000 as a plateau before gold begins to respond a little better to the actual market place. I can see 1200 but I'm not anxious because I know it is just a matter of time.
To take the thinking a little further, it is not beyond imagination to anticipate a currency that does become backed by gold. Probably from one of the mining nations like Africa or Australia or maybe even Russia but I could see how some wizard would realize that if you have a gold backed currency in a environment dominated by BS paper then people would flock to that currency for international trade surplanting the USD, and the Yen and any other wanna be paper like the Euro. Now, if you wanna talk about someone that could make some very hard currency, look at the UAE!
So...that's how I see it for the moment. These are just my opinions but I am playing for real so these are not just idle musings. I continue to accumulate.
let me think, the high was $21.00 the recent low was $16.25. we touched almost $18.50 Now we are at the 50% retrace level, so the next target would be at the 61% level if we are bullish.
that is $2.27 for the 50 % retrace, this is were it looses steam, or gathers it.
16.25+2.27= 18.52 that was 50%, now add .27 for next target, that will get you to $18.79 for 61%
A reversal form there would take you down to only $17.53 for 50%. With the bullish outlook. we could see $21.00 or more in the next 3 months..
(Prediction for this day May 24, 2008, A Bullish outlook for silver to continue. On this date May 24, 2009 silver will be between $25.00-$28.00 dollars.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
As gold rises, it will be a response to poor performance in other areas. Once we have met with 1200, probably in '09 then we really can start speculating on where to from there but from here and for right now, it is extreemly hard to see past 1200.
We'd already be at $1200-$1500 without the constant FED and PPT intervention. Gold has lagged the key industrial metals and the other PM's so that the FED can slowly let the dollar down to the 0.5 level. It has lagged commodities in general. If CPI rates and unemployment stats were fairly devised, gold could not be kept as low as it is. Therefore, I see no difference in the economy's pain from gold at $924 today and that of gold at $1200 tomorrow or next year. Take away FED games and we'd be sitting on $1500 gold today with the same economy you see before you.
Buffett sees "long, deep" U.S. recession BERLIN (Reuters) - The United States is already in a recession and it will be longer as well as deeper than many people expect, U.S. investor Warren Buffett said in an interview published in German magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday. He said the United States was "already in recession" and added: "Perhaps not in the sense that economists would define it" with two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
"But the people are already feeling the effects," said Buffett, the world's richest man. "It will be deeper and last longer than many think."
But he said that won't stop him from investing in selected companies and said he remained interested in well-managed German family-owned companies.
"If the world were falling apart I'd still invest in companies," he said.
Buffett also renewed his criticism of derivatives trading.
"It's not right that hundreds of thousands of jobs are being eliminated, that entire industrial sectors in the real economy are being wiped out by financial bets even though the sectors are actually in good health."
Buffett complained about the lack of effective controls.
"That's the problem," he said. "You can't steer it, you can't regulate it anymore. You can't get the genie back in the bottle."
Back to making predictions with the use of charts. Take a look at nasdaq, new developments for the last week. With a very, very bearish outlook for the days, and weeks ahead,, it seems that the correction is done, therefor the top has been made. There is now A clear impulsive wave structure. Nasdaq is on the way down since Monday of the last week. Predictable, the current wave should be done at around 2400, followed by a correction to around 2460-2500.
After A small correction, fasten your seat belts for the trip down, too also complete a much larger wave that will follow..
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
<< <i>Lets see, I am 70 now. I wonder If I will still be alive, when these darn waves stop crashing against my Index Funds. >>
Are you seriuos about the waves Bear? Are you still in the Index Funds? That would surprise me considering your wise stance?? I got out over 12 months ago.
I just got back in 10 days ago. I have not been hit too badly down only about 100 dollars. I can live with that, but multiply that by 500 and I will become a mad mean old bear.
<< <i>I just got back in 10 days ago. I have not been hit too badly down only about 100 dollars. I can live with that, but multiply that by 500 and I will become a mad mean old bear. >>
Run Away!
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
Comments
Text
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>
<< <i>something that might be of significance in marking a top to the stock market. I just looked at the VIX (Volatility Index) and noticed it just dipped to its lowest level in the past year. The last time it dipped closest to this level was October 9th, 2007. And as you all probably know, a couple days later the Dow dropped over 2000 points. So the lack of volatility is worse than that of the Oct. 2007 top, and at the same time all the indices are tapping key resistance levels, and on pathetic volume. Today's volume is setting up to be another horribly low day. Plus, the Nadaq indices are lagging both the S&P and Dow. This seems to me to be immediately bearish (i.e. next day or two). >>
wow...
WOW! >>
day 2 the slide is accelerating.
should America stand by and hope for the best?
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
I get over 5 weeks paid vacation not including holidays and use every day.
Box of 20
<< <i>$925-935 target has been reached. Short term a sell from Euro to dollars.
Gold is ready for a correction down from the $935 level.
Silver is now 39 cent away from my target of 18.50 >>
Is this another coincidence?
Gold is pulling back, the Euro has pulled back, and the dollar has rallied, time to sell dollars once again..
Can it be we have the power to see the future as proposed by understanding charts, and Fibonacci retracement?
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
A traders worse enemy is overconfidence.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Be careful stig.
A traders worse enemy is overconfidence. >>
Thanks for the advice, but it is time to sell dollars to the yen. with a bounce off the 61% fib level 104.40
you should see a rising triangle unfold touching 104.40 sometime today .
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
roadrunner
<< <i>
Can it be we have the power to see the future as proposed by understanding charts, and Fibonacci retracement? >>
No.
There are lots of safe and reliable ways to predict the future but they all can fail
on minor points or in the shorter term. They all do fail in the long term and they
fail otherwise. All of nature is chaotic. We see patterns because because we're
wired that way.
The problem with predicting is that the things which determine the future happen
in the future. A method works only until it stops working.
Commodities will drift... ...erratically.
Eventually metals will decouple from currencies and move higher.
<< <i>I'm still expecting a little stability (but erratic) until the next ley down for the dollar.
Commodities will drift... ...erratically.
Eventually metals will decouple from currencies and move higher. >>
well the dollar could technically retrace 100% of the last large wave down, I'm not expecting the dollar to go much farther than that.
Friday you should see profit taking, before a long weekend.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
in the future. A method works only until it stops working."
Ah, the clarity in thought is refreshing.
<< <i>"The problem with predicting is that the things which determine the future happen
in the future. A method works only until it stops working."
<< <i>
<< <i>Be careful stig.
A traders worse enemy is overconfidence. >>
Thanks for the advice, but it is time to sell dollars to the yen. with a bounce off the 61% fib level 104.40
you should see a rising triangle unfold touching 104.40 sometime today .
Ah, the clarity in thought is refreshing. >>
Indeed..
100% profit 1 day. If the correction represents a wave 4 , then the bounce off the 61% re-trace should hold. wave 5 will be deep. that would take the Euro to a new high, and gold along with it.
If wave 4 represents a new count, then wave 3 up will take this to a new High past 105.00.
I don't think thats the case, the dollar should continue to slide.
If not we have a new count, possibly a short term reversal.
Im sure the market would like to get the dollar back up to the 106.00 level before they short dollars again.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
The AP reports that the city of Vallejo has filed for bankruptcy protection to deal with a ballooning budget deficit caused soaring employee costs and declining tax revenue. The San Francisco Bay area suburb of about 120,000 residents is the largest California city to declare bankruptcy. Mayor Osby Davis says the city's attorneys filed papers seeking Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection in federal court in Sacramento on Friday. The City Council voted to authorize the city manager to file for bankruptcy on May 6 after months of failed negotiations with its public safety unions. Some officials blame the financial crisis on labor contracts they say provide overly generous pay and benefits to the city's police officers and firefighters.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Maybe they should have outsourced
The AP reports that the city of Vallejo has filed for bankruptcy protection to deal with a ballooning budget deficit caused soaring employee costs and declining tax revenue. The San Francisco Bay area suburb of about 120,000 residents is the largest California city to declare bankruptcy. Mayor Osby Davis says the city's attorneys filed papers seeking Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection in federal court in Sacramento on Friday. The City Council voted to authorize the city manager to file for bankruptcy on May 6 after months of failed negotiations with its public safety unions. Some officials blame the financial crisis on labor contracts they say provide overly generous pay and benefits to the city's police officers and firefighters. >>
one wonders why pensions even exist for govt workers when they
are long gone for almost everyone else. these people will take, take
and take until the well has ran dry. MA is a perfect example of the
greed of these people in their positions and they know every trick
in the book to maxamize it. pathetic all around.
what format or software are you using on forex to bring up these charts
<< <i>
<< <i>Maybe they should have outsourced
one wonders why pensions even exist for govt workers when they
are long gone for almost everyone else. these people will take, take
and take until the well has ran dry. MA is a perfect example of the
greed of these people in their positions and they know every trick
in the book to maxamize it. pathetic all around. >>
If I remember correctly, way back when the government was full of slugs and wasn't very efficient (laugh now) they put together amazing benefits to lure good hard working people. They gave out great retirement bene's, free public transportation passes, great medical coverage, higher PTO allowances, and even free gym memberships to the upper middle class gyms. It worked, all kinds of people came to work and there were (I must admit) a lot of efficiencies gained.... Then came stronger unions who argued that they were not getting a fair wage, never mind all the benefits and days off (they're so hard working). To boot they remodeled buildings and got all new office furniture and highly expensive computer systems.
Then, the government added all kinds of regulations and policies to make government work better. And of course don't forget, they have pay scales to keep all things "fair". So, now the few slugs that were pushed out have came back. They're now protected and guaranteed an annual increase in pay, plus merit base plus shift differential. Doncha love it?
<< <i>thestig
what format or software are you using on forex to bring up these charts >>
here ya go.
I use a screen capture to capture the image, then I use edit to post them here.
the live charts give you a way to view the action as it unfolds, and also has a good set of integrated tools, FREE..
Here is a beginner lesson.
wave 3, and 5 are the big ones, these you can enter after a pattern is clear.
A wave count refers to the letters, and numbers you assign to the wave, if wave labels are clear,
you then will enter on the correct side of the trade, short or long. In this environment the market is following the wave principle very closely.
Profit can be huge, if you factor in relative information, sometimes its best to do the opposite of what the media says is true. (they Lie)
Actually thy been lying to the public ever since December. They will eventually be right, but not until there long term goals are reached.
Government included they have there hands dirty.... remember the rogue trader? A dirty plant to get the euro high enough to effect the market they way they needed it to. 30 billion is nothing to sneeze at. That info was leaked the night the euro ran up, a free gift. Anyway the
Most important thing to have is patience, and protecting your risks. adding a stop limit can save you if you enter the wrong side of the bet, also it gives you a little breathing room that allows the magic to happen according to the correct count. Sorry for the messy chart.
yesterday the timing could not have been better, as it bounced precisely were it should have.
Fibonacci trading
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
(trade accordingly).
The waves, and sub waves become clearer.
How to find the correct wave to trade? a wave 3, or 5 ,or a wave c are the only waves you need be concerned with.
There are allot of different patterns you will become familiar with as you study your charts. Practice labeling the waves, and sub waves.
These are some basic principles to follow, and will help you get a clear view of a chart, and what patterns you are seeing.
We had the dollar fall off its recent high, the trend for the dollar was down for the last 20 years. The Australian dollar has reach a 17 year high, this one will correct eventually to the downside. Its these corrections that increase your knowledge, and will give you a clear long term outlook.
Historically we learn from the past. There are many different patterns that can be traded, a rising flag pole with a descending triangle. This pattern is just like the one I see with the Aulstralian dollar. The trade was higher on two occasions, the first correction is underway. This should be a 3 wave correction down, but never cast in stone. Become familiar with chart terms, this should be a priority, the more patterns you see, the better your skill will become. For instance a head, and shoulders may represent a bearish outlook. A trade that gets squeezed into a tighter triangle represent a larger move is near, up, or down. the descending flat, may represent the chart will make a turn for the worst. Study up, because this is your generations big boom. You should not stay still, and miss the boat. The Euro trade will have a big correction down, once it tests a new high this year, While the dollar should test a new low. Why should the market only profit in these tough times? Hopefully we will avoid a depression, and the dollar will recover. Its these reversals in a stock, or currency chart that generally take many years to completely correct after a long run up, or decent.
Fibonacci Retracements
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Almost seems..... to be the modern crystal ball. But if it works for you.... more power to you.
for the studious and sometimes nerve wracking approach to trading.
For those able to handle it, I agree that there are opportunities,
However one must be prepared for much time and effort to be able
to come out of it alive. Many smart folks have lost there shirts over
the long run. In some ways, this kind of trading takes an instinct that
many of us do not have. I wish all of our Forum trading folks, the best
and I hope you make a bundle and the rest of us dummies will be
rooting for you to succeed.
Camelot
what does my crystal ball have to say?
Just ask a question, and the answer will be provided.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
OK, Stig...1200 gold?
$2 SPAB
<< <i>"Just ask a question, and the answer will be provided."
OK, Stig...1200 gold? >>
Don't hold your breath. $850.00 long term.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Yeah, I can believe that.
<< <i>"Don't hold your breath. $850.00 long term"
Yeah, I can believe that. >>
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Bottom line, nothing is fixed in the economy and the banks are trying to come up with less-stringent margin requirements for their TRILLIONs in near-worthless derivatives. And you can bet the FED will accomodate the larger banks and brokerages so they won't have to declare bankruptcy. It will take to 2011 to wade through the OTC schlock among the $600 TRILLION in derivatives that now exist. The banks cannot afford to deal with this in any other fashion than piece-meal. They will continue to drag their feet towards true accounting of the mess and every few months they will "find" new losses in their portfolio's that some "rouge" trader kept hidden from their benevolent management (lol).
A nice 10% move in gold and gold stocks over the past 6 weeks for those who got back in at the $850 level. Some gold stocks like Yamana they were extremely beat down have gained 25% in that same period. If there ever was a give-away in gold stocks, Yamana was the one when it was taken down >36% from the March highs, this in an environment where hard assets are about the only true protection from unchecked inflation. True gold producers like Yamana, Agnico-Eagle, Freeport, Goldcorp were overly beat down and have come back strong. They will likely be industry leaders for years to come. Those producers are often the whipping posts of the PPT and suffer larger losses when the FED wants to see gold taken down. But Freeport's large stake in copper made it immune to the cartel's effects of the past few weeks.
It's a dollar problem, not an oil problem
Peter Schiff has a concise way of stating reality. Too bad our own politicians can't figure the true reason why oil prices are up (hint...it isn't the oil companies).
roadrunner
siliconvalleycoins.com
<< <i>I'd vote for a still higher run towards $960-$990 before gold pulls back. Just a hunch.
roadrunner >>
<< <i>That B wave you posted thestig is bullish...it breaks the bearish h and s that gold is dealing with now. >>
You may be right, it does look bullish, but then that means the dollar will get hit, and the Euro will go higher.
That is my initial outlook anyhow, but i know there will be that manipulation coming back in all markets soon.
No reason to think all will be A - OK before 2009 ends. Long term for me is like 3 days.
roadrunner may be on to something.. B has not been reached yet in the chart. A 3 wave correction would take it down to c..
I think oil is on its last leg that will take it back up to a new high. Then feel free to go short.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I could be very comfortable believing that 1200 in '09 is the 900 we will likely be living with during much of '08. We can't predict the future but we can see that there is truly too much paper floating around and at some point, someone big is going to ask for their money in either hard assets or in a stronger currency and that's when gold will transition into the safe haven both for getting liquidity into paper assets and for finding safety from worthless paper. It should be a long 12 month or so transition to more stability in the market place and if history proves itself, gold will be the hub for this movement to stability. This is not just guessing for me, I have a fair amount of my assets in PM, particularly in gold and I'm in mostly at 650 and don't need to sell nor am I in the mood to take a profit at less than 900 so, I feel good with 850, am comfortable with 900 as a good, healthy consolidation price. I would like to see 1000 as a plateau before gold begins to respond a little better to the actual market place. I can see 1200 but I'm not anxious because I know it is just a matter of time.
To take the thinking a little further, it is not beyond imagination to anticipate a currency that does become backed by gold. Probably from one of the mining nations like Africa or Australia or maybe even Russia but I could see how some wizard would realize that if you have a gold backed currency in a environment dominated by BS paper then people would flock to that currency for international trade surplanting the USD, and the Yen and any other wanna be paper like the Euro. Now, if you wanna talk about someone that could make some very hard currency, look at the UAE!
So...that's how I see it for the moment. These are just my opinions but I am playing for real so these are not just idle musings. I continue to accumulate.
Good Luck!
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
let me think, the high was $21.00 the recent low was $16.25. we touched almost $18.50
Now we are at the 50% retrace level, so the next target would be at the 61% level if we are bullish.
that is $2.27 for the 50 % retrace, this is were it looses steam, or gathers it.
16.25+2.27= 18.52 that was 50%, now add .27 for next target, that will get you to $18.79 for 61%
A reversal form there would take you down to only $17.53 for 50%. With the bullish outlook. we could see $21.00 or more in the next 3 months..
(Prediction for this day May 24, 2008, A Bullish outlook for silver to continue.
On this date May 24, 2009 silver will be between $25.00-$28.00 dollars.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
We'd already be at $1200-$1500 without the constant FED and PPT intervention. Gold has lagged the key industrial metals and the other PM's so that the FED can slowly let the dollar down to the 0.5 level. It has lagged commodities in general. If CPI rates and unemployment stats were fairly devised, gold could not be kept as low as it is. Therefore, I see no difference in the economy's pain from gold at $924 today and that of gold at $1200 tomorrow or next year. Take away FED games and we'd be sitting on $1500 gold today with the same economy you see before you.
roadrunner
BERLIN (Reuters) - The United States is already in a recession and it will be longer as well as deeper than many people expect, U.S. investor Warren Buffett said in an interview published in German magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday.
He said the United States was "already in recession" and added: "Perhaps not in the sense that economists would define it" with two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
"But the people are already feeling the effects," said Buffett, the world's richest man. "It will be deeper and last longer than many think."
But he said that won't stop him from investing in selected companies and said he remained interested in well-managed German family-owned companies.
"If the world were falling apart I'd still invest in companies," he said.
Buffett also renewed his criticism of derivatives trading.
"It's not right that hundreds of thousands of jobs are being eliminated, that entire industrial sectors in the real economy are being wiped out by financial bets even though the sectors are actually in good health."
Buffett complained about the lack of effective controls.
"That's the problem," he said. "You can't steer it, you can't regulate it anymore. You can't get the genie back in the bottle."
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
With a very, very bearish outlook for the days, and weeks ahead,, it seems that the correction is done, therefor the top has been made.
There is now A clear impulsive wave structure. Nasdaq is on the way down since Monday of the last week.
Predictable, the current wave should be done at around 2400, followed by a correction to around 2460-2500.
After A small correction, fasten your seat belts for the trip down, too also complete a much larger wave that will follow..
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
when these darn waves stop crashing against my Index
Funds.
Camelot
<< <i>Lets see, I am 70 now. I wonder If I will still be alive,
when these darn waves stop crashing against my Index
Funds.
Chin up..
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>Lets see, I am 70 now. I wonder If I will still be alive,
when these darn waves stop crashing against my Index
Funds.
Are you seriuos about the waves Bear? Are you still in the Index Funds?
That would surprise me considering your wise stance??
I got out over 12 months ago.
Miles
down only about 100 dollars. I can live with that, but multiply
that by 500 and I will become a mad mean old bear.
Camelot
<< <i>I just got back in 10 days ago. I have not been hit too badly
down only about 100 dollars. I can live with that, but multiply
that by 500 and I will become a mad mean old bear. >>
Run Away!
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.