Now, for the input from HSBC Global Research and their team's projections for average gold and silver prices for the short and medium term. The good news is that all of the projected averages represent an increase above previous forecasts. However, even with such allowances, the numbers came in as follows:
you know. i am tending to agree with this. we had this big crisis with a large bank failing and gold could only stay above 1000 bucks for how many hours/days? pretty pathetic actually.
it will take a huge massacre of the economy to make gold bugs dreams come true. several large banks. don't you think that these banks would not be well aware of this possibility and working to avert that crisis in the short and medium term?
be prepared for gold to be snoozeville very quickly here. it will truly be a commodity again and out of the news.
i am bearish of course. the corner has been turned unless you expect the worst... which i think many of you do.
Washington, DC - Congress is considering sweeping legislation that will provide new benefits for many Americans. The Americans With No Abilities Act (AWNAA) is being hailed as a major legislative goal by advocates of the millions of Americans who lack any real skills or ambition.
'Roughly 50 percent of Americans do not possess the competence and drive necessary to carve out a meaningful role for themselves in society,' said California Senator Barbara Boxer. 'We can no longer stand by and allow People of Inability to be ridiculed and passed over. With this legislation, employers will no longer be able to grant special favors to a small group of workers, simply because they have some idea of what they are doing.'
In a Capitol Hill press conference, House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pointed to the success of the U.S. Postal Service, which has a long-standing policy of providing opportunity without regard to performance. Approximately 74 percent of postal employees lack any job skills, making this agency the single largest U.S employer of Persons of Inability.
Private-sector industries with good records of non-discrimination against the Inept include retail sales (72%), the airline industry (68%), and home improvement 'warehouse' stores (65%). At the state government level, the Department of Motor Vehicles also has an excellent record of hiring Persons of Inability (63%).
Under The Americans With No Abilities Act, more than 25 million 'middle man' positions will be created, with important-sounding titles but little real responsibility, thus providing an illusory sense of purpose and performance.
Mandatory non-performance-based raises and promotions will be given so as to guarantee upward mobility for even the most unremarkable employees. The legislation provides substantial tax breaks to corporations that promote a significant number of Persons of Inability into middle-management positions, and gives a tax credit to small and medium-sized businesses that agree to hire one clueless worker for every two talented hires.
Finally, the AWNAA contains tough new measures to make it more difficult to discriminate against the Non-abled, banning, for example, discriminatory interview questions such as, 'Do you have any skills or experience that relate to this job?' 'As a Non-abled person, I can't be expected to keep up with people who have something going for them,' said Mary Lou Gertz, who lost her position as a lug-nut twister at the GM plant in Flint , Michigan , due to her inability to remember 'rightey tightey, lefty loosey.' 'This new law should be real good for people like me,' Gertz added. With the passage of this bill, Gertz and millions of other untalented citizens will finally see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Said Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL): 'As a Senator with no abilities, I believe the same privileges that elected officials enjoy ought to be extended to every American with no abilities. It is our duty as lawmakers to provide each and every American citizen, regardless of his or her inadequacy, with some sort of space to take up in this great nation and a good salary for doing so.'
There has been nothing in the last several weeks to shake the underlying trends. These trends will stay in place until a funda- mental or structural change causes them to reverse.
This can be as simple as merely running its course but in this case there should be signs that inflation has repaired the damage wrought by irresponsible fiscal policy. This will be a process rather than an event. This process itself will cause more damage.
I'm expecting continued massive swings for the short term and continued erosion in currencies. Oil could get caught up in a brief downdraft since reduced demand has a little chance to assert itself but until there is an actual policy in place to reduce oil consumption on a worldwide basis the trend in oil will stay intact as well.
<< <i>... but until there is an actual policy in place to reduce oil consumption on a worldwide basis the trend in oil will stay intact as well. >>
There is. It's called high prices. This market force will do more to encourage conservation/investment in alternative energy than any government policies ever could.
“When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.” — Benjamin Franklin
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
<< <i>... but until there is an actual policy in place to reduce oil consumption on a worldwide basis the trend in oil will stay intact as well. >>
There is. It's called high prices. This market force will do more to encourage conservation/investment in alternative energy than any government policies ever could. >>
You can't build much of anything anywhere without governmental permission.
This problem is too big for conservation and individual effort alone. (or at least it will be at some indeterminant point in the future.
<< <i>... but until there is an actual policy in place to reduce oil consumption on a worldwide basis the trend in oil will stay intact as well. >>
There is. It's called high prices. This market force will do more to encourage conservation/investment in alternative energy than any government policies ever could. >>
You can't build much of anything anywhere without governmental permission.
This problem is too big for conservation and individual effort alone. (or at least it will be at some indeterminant point in the future. >>
an individual could choose to buy a car that gets 45+ MPG. actually, i just did. toyota cannot make them fast enough. the waiting list is at 3-6 months depending on the region for the prius. i would bet that most here cannot even recognize one on the roads.
i switched every lightbulb in the house to the newer more efficient ones that do not blow out every time a door is shut due to the cheap filament inside the old bulbs. they break, not wear out in my experience due to vibrations.
i turn the heat down in the house during winter and set it for 65ish.
i live close to my job, grocery store, etc.. i live downtown and expect more people to change their suburbain ways of commuting an hour each way. how silly!
the list is endless and millions of people are doing it. you really need to get out and explore the options available from new home designs to simply walking or riding a bike more to go pick up your 12 pack of beer ;-)
<< <i> an individual could choose to buy a car that gets 45+ MPG. actually, i just did. toyota cannot make them fast enough. the waiting list is at 3-6 months depending on the region for the prius. i would bet that most here cannot even recognize one on the roads.
i switched every lightbulb in the house to the newer more efficient ones that do not blow out every time a door is shut due to the cheap filament inside the old bulbs. they break, not wear out in my experience due to vibrations.
i turn the heat down in the house during winter and set it for 65ish.
i live close to my job, grocery store, etc.. i live downtown and expect more people to change their suburbain ways of commuting an hour each way. how silly!
the list is endless and millions of people are doing it. you really need to get out and explore the options available from new home designs to simply walking or riding a bike more to go pick up your 12 pack of beer ;-) >>
The amount of waste in the US is simply staggering. Individuals use or waste far more energy and resources than are needed even for the ways of life they've chosen. With a few changes they could use far less than what they do. Industry in the US may be even bigger energy hogs. Huge reductions in waste are possible with no effect on production were they to put effort into the problem.
Individuals can make changes virtually overnight and most certainly will if it's forced on them but most of the folks with Hummers and mcmansions are hardly going to be affected by $1000 heating bills and $100 fillups. Here we've had oil prices up eight fold in recent years and we've seen our first 1% reduc- tion in gas usage. Changing corporate behavior can take generations.
The US uses a small and declining fraction of the world oil production and may be enterrig recession. The rest of the world is booming in many places and enjoying spectacular growth rates. This won't slow and oil production could be peaking.
There are lots of people who have always used as little as possible. How will they cut back?
Those HSBC Global "Research" numbers on gold and silver are truly laughable.....right from the Goldman playbook of late 2007.
you know. i am tending to agree with this. we had this big crisis with a large bank failing and gold could only stay above 1000 bucks for how many hours/days? pretty pathetic actually.
Recall that the FED sequestered the end of that week and weekend to come up with a game plan Sunday night and into Monday day to contain the BSC carnage. They knew what would happen if they didn't act so they had days to plan it out knowing that BSC was already all but bankrupt. They began by having their minions stampede gold overseas Sunday night well before the US open on Monday. They continued the naked short selling into that Monday hitting hedge fund black box stops all the way down. It was probably time for a gold breather and the FED happened to pick the perfect opportunity to turn a disaster into a PR gem by showing how they "saved" BSC. It was ideal timing to say the least. The attack was well coordinated throughout the world. They had all their ducks lined up to sell at each opening. So how many more times will they be able to pull off such a stunt as major banks/brokerages go poof? Will the next one be swallowed down as easy by the public as BSC was?
yet many here preach the "gospel according to Sinclair" as solid advice about gold is his bias somehow different?
One obvious fact is that Sinclair has called every major change in the gold price since 2001. He may have not been dead on with respect to the month when a major resistance point was taken out, but he has called each and every one of them. In fact he picked all the resistance points to $887 by the time gold was just over $300 back in 2002 and was certain they would each come. Check out the track record of HSBC, GS, JPM, and the others on their gold "calls" over the past 7 yrs. Bottom line is that JS has been right at all of his major angels. The last one taken out was $887 on the way past $900 to $1000. One would be foolish not to heed his next calls of $1200 by end of 2008 and $1650 by January 2011. Note that he has put up $1 MILL of his own money on a bet with a private party. That's what makes him different. What he doesn't do is tell you when to sell, that's up to each individual to learn the tools he provides. And it's no secret that the bullish calls of many pro-gold advisors are used as points of opportunity by the cartel to punish gold (and it works). Hence far fewer details of bullish calls being printed that provide the FED ammunition to stampede gold. FWIW Sinclair called the bottom of $846 a few weeks back. He also predicted it would hold and so far it has. Call the man biased if you want, but someone putting $25 MILL of their own money into their own mining company speaks of commitment rather than speculation which is what the majority of gold players are actually doing. Check out the Barrick officers who were recently dumping their own stock holdings! JS's advice on derivatives 6 years ago and what they would do to the economy (and the gold market) in a few short years has played out to a tee. What major bank published something similar to that (lol)?
When Sinclair is proven dead wrong and totally out of touch with what gold, the economy, and currencies are doing, then let him be discredited at that time. Until then, his advice of higher gold prices beyond $1000-$1200 should be considered. Who is his competition that we should be listening to? Bernanke? Paulson? Fed governors?
When a race horse has consistently lead the pack and showed you the way year after year, you hang in there until it can't race any more (ie that horse is still racing well). It doesn't hurt that JS bailed out of the gold market in early 1980 just day(s) before it peaked. He did not linger in the 80's or 90's like a Ruff-timer or Harry Schulz expounded on gold's return at any moment. In fact Sinclair only returned to the gold wars just after the 1999-2001 peaks in the Stock Markets. Sure seems like he knows when to stay and when to leave. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. What other major gold players give freely of their time (for free), accepts phone calls, emails and faxes from students and actually gets back to them? I see a lot less bias in these actions than on the part of anyone else in the pro-gold world.
My money stays with the "gold barkers" rather than with Paulsen and his cronies. One group has been essentially right all along while the other has been wrong all along. Not a hard decision. The fact that for the past 7 years JS has sounded and acted believable at what he has said. I cannot say that for anyone involved the mainstream banking/brokerage sector. Feel free to put all your money on the banks to recover. I'll stick with the barbarous relic for a while longer until the long term trend line breaks down for good.
<< <i>... but until there is an actual policy in place to reduce oil consumption on a worldwide basis the trend in oil will stay intact as well. >>
There is. It's called high prices. This market force will do more to encourage conservation/investment in alternative energy than any government policies ever could. >>
who has the most market share, ford, GM, honda? go green...
Yea that and honda saving the world with there all new hydrogen fuel cell car.. 2.3 percent dividen
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
US economy takes a licking but keeps on ticking. Dollar strong especially against the YEN. Whats going on STig? Gold/silver getting whacked. Silver may be breaking uptrend line. Will try to post a chart when I get a chance.
From Briefing.com.........
The announced death of the consumer was once again premature. May retail sales jumped 1.0%. Excluding gasoline sales (impacted by price), the increase was a still very strong 0.8%. The total excluding auto sales was 1.2%, as auto sales once again lowered the total figure. The April changes were also revised sharply higher. Total retail sales were revised to an increase of 1.0% from an originally reported 0.5%, and excluding autos the increase is now at 0.4% from an originally reported -0.2%. Coupled with the strong May same-store sales gains for retailers, these data should convincingly show that the fiscal stimulus and regular spending trends are not being completely destroyed by higher gas prices. It is likely that consumer spending in June and July will also post good gains. The good trend on consumer spending as the second quarter begins greatly reduces the risk of a very weak second quarter real GDP gain. It is likely that forecasts will start to climb to the 1.5% to 2% range. These data are clearly strong
<< <i> The US uses a small and declining fraction of the world oil production and may be enterrig recession. The rest of the world is booming in many places and enjoying spectacular growth rates. This won't slow and oil production could be peaking. >>
And this at our expense as well. If they didn't have the U.S. as a marketplace maybe things might not be so rosy for them.
<< <i>US economy takes a licking but keeps on ticking. Dollar strong especially against the YEN. Whats going on STig? Gold/silver getting whacked. Silver may be breaking uptrend line. Will try to post a chart when I get a chance.
From Briefing.com.........
The announced death of the consumer was once again premature. May retail sales jumped 1.0%. Excluding gasoline sales (impacted by price), the increase was a still very strong 0.8%. The total excluding auto sales was 1.2%, as auto sales once again lowered the total figure. The April changes were also revised sharply higher. Total retail sales were revised to an increase of 1.0% from an originally reported 0.5%, and excluding autos the increase is now at 0.4% from an originally reported -0.2%. Coupled with the strong May same-store sales gains for retailers, these data should convincingly show that the fiscal stimulus and regular spending trends are not being completely destroyed by higher gas prices. It is likely that consumer spending in June and July will also post good gains. The good trend on consumer spending as the second quarter begins greatly reduces the risk of a very weak second quarter real GDP gain. It is likely that forecasts will start to climb to the 1.5% to 2% range. These data are clearly strong >>
Hello. I was short euro last night on gold weakness. Yes I saw the strength in the dollar, Regardless of a rally, further weakness is inevitable. Thats the beauty of living in the now, and risk management. I was still able to profit.. The big dip is yet to come for the dollar..
The safest play was to short euros.. Today I suspect the dollar to strengthen slightly more before, a down turn on profit taking, before the close, or as soon as tomorrow.
The fundamentals have not changed, people are taking more profits from Oil expecting a risk aversion, and may accelerate.
One thing that did change is the fact that higher global currency prices allowed for the run up in dollars. Its a short term fix on a global shift, considering the amount of cash the fed invested for this very/manipulation/ longer term plan.. We are just seeing the infuse of the money shifting short term... The deficit dictates the way the dollar will go in the near future.
The dollar on the other hand, will remain under pressure.. Next week if the dow closes below 12,000 you will have your conformation of the down turn.. IMHO...
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
Many Manufacturing companies will have to move south to southern states...to take advantage of energy and cut cost....they can go greener by moving south and modernizing their plants at the same time...I guess maybe the south will rise again!
In a conversation with a specialist that does private environmental evaluations for developers (cultural resources, Corps permitting, wetlands evaluation, threatened and endangered species) prior to the developers getting local permits and issuing plans and specifications, he had this to say... "There is a lot of money coming here from California corporate level development firms. The land developers are receiving huge investment fund portfolios to manage from the middle east, the numbers are huge."
He further talked about thousand and multi thousand acre developments in areas where there has never been any significant development, the hurricane prone Texas gulf coast. That means totally new infrastructure and that stuff is expensive because it has to be done from the ground up all the way from roads, wastewater treatment, power...the whole thing; there's not much out there. I had heard some rumors and seen a couple of small town news paper articles about some developments that are in the wings but I haven't seen any specific details about them.
Apparently, this is just now coming on but there is a huge megawad of buks headed into/already in the US for development and we're talking Dubai and oil money here and let me repeat MEGAWAD. I suspect Texas Gulf coast is not the only area to receive this inflow of development. So, don't be too parochial here...things are happening. Read and pay attention, there might be a play. I'm thinking land has got to be an investment due fair consideration here considering paper, banks, PM, all the traditional short term plays are just so sketchy. The other interesting note is that it's foreign money and they don't have to go through the US tax grinder so they can pretty much tell the agencies to stuff it in their wazoo. Not trying to promote anything...just a note to pay attention to land.
yet many here preach the "gospel according to Sinclair" as solid advice about gold. is his bias somehow different?
As rr noted, Sinclair has been in, and out of the gold market correctly. His advice is valued not because he is a goldbug, but because he knows how to interpret economic data and Fed policy in spite of the fact that the data is purposefully obscured so that "common people" don't have access.
It's not conspiracy theory to question why central bankers are allowed to trash the economy and the dollar to the detriment of most working folks. If demanding an explanation and a remedy for a shrinking dollar is folly, then we must not really have a problem.
How many people think that the Fed is responsible for inflation, and how many think that "high prices" are responsible for inflation? It's such a simple concept, that if you don't understand the relationship between money and credit vs. inflation - you will never figure out why your savings and retirement investments just don't seem to get traction.
There's definitely a tug and pull going on between the governments and the people. The framers of the Constitution warned against the central banks, and they were apparently much wiser than popular culture gives them credit for.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
He further talked about thousand and multi thousand acre developments in areas where there has never been any significant development, the hurricane prone Texas gulf coast. That means totally new infrastructure and that stuff is expensive because it has to be done from the ground up all the way from roads, wastewater treatment, power...the whole thing; there's not much out there
I dont know why these companies dont look at Detroit. It has probably one of the most extensive infrastructures already in place. There are legions of ready and willing workers and real estate would be cheap of acquire. And no hurricanes.
<< <i>He further talked about thousand and multi thousand acre developments in areas where there has never been any significant development, the hurricane prone Texas gulf coast. That means totally new infrastructure and that stuff is expensive because it has to be done from the ground up all the way from roads, wastewater treatment, power...the whole thing; there's not much out there
I dont know why these companies dont look at Detroit. It has probably one of the most extensive infrastructures already in place. There are legions of ready and willing workers and real estate would be cheap of acquire. And no hurricanes. >>
Because Detroit just isn't COOL enough. You have to go somewhere trendy and cool or everybody will laugh at you.
Only question with Lehman, Citigroup, Merrill, Wells Fargo, Wachovia, Barclays, etc. is who's next? The FED may save Citigroup but the others can go down in flames like BSC.
Not the most optimistic of articles, but I'd say it's closer to the truth than the picture that Bernanke and Paulson currently paint. Thousands of bank failures coming?.........Yikes.
Nice article RR. Not a lover of negative info myself but it's nice to see some real world honesty in the face of gov.speak junk that the media and fed are trying to get people to buy.
<< <i>Only question with Lehman, Citigroup, Merrill, etc is who's next?
Not the most optimistic of articles, but I'd say it's closer to the truth than the picture that Bernanke and Paulson currently paint. Thousands of bank failures coming?.........Yikes.
This guy is missing an important point; the world is founded on smoke and mirrors. If you look at how hot dogs are made or watch too closely the man behind the curtain you are likely to run screaming into the night. We made it through 1979 and 1996. We'll al- most certainly make it through 2008 as well unless too many people look too closely.
It does seem as though we are setting up for catastrophic failure in the foreseeable fu- ture because of a lack of response to fundamental changes. But these shouldn't affect us in 2008.
The FED is taking actions these days more like it is mid-1929, rather than like 1978 or 1996 which were proverbial cake walks based on the strength of the US economy in those days. Since 1996 we have pushed the "credit binging-free handout society" to the limits of sanity. The FED had wiggle room in those last 2 instances. This time they don't appear to have any room to maneuver out of the corner they've painted themselves into. However it is interesting that their next step to slam commodities down (after their monetary policies created this very problem) is to suggest trading limits on the commodities exchange. I have no doubts they will strongly encourage the CFTC to enact such controls. While this will be a workable maneuver to pull back the price of oil I'm not yet sure how (or if) they will place limits on trading metals. Can you imagine limitations on going long on gold or silver futures or even the US Dollar? (LOL).
I would agree that somehow the FED will muddle us all through 2008 and the elections, but 2009 appears to be the start of a serious reckoning that will last for several more years. Housing won't even begin to clean itself up until 2011-2012.
Year-Over-Year Inflation (from Richard Benson) As of June 2008 (1)
Zimbabwe 1,000,000% U.A.E 12% Argentina (2) 25 to 30% Turkey 11% Latvia 30% Costa Rica 11% Venezuela 29% South Africa 11% Vietnam 25% Philippines 10% Iran 25% Indonesia 10% Egypt 21% Guatemala 10% Pakistan 18% Saudi 10% Bolivia 15% China 9% Nicaragua 14% India 8% Russia 14% Chile 8% Qatar 14% Thailand 8%
However it is interesting that their next step to slam commodities down (after their monetary policies created this very problem) is to suggest trading limits on the commodities exchange. I have no doubts they will strongly encourage the CFTC to enact such controls. While this will be a workable maneuver to pull back the price of oil I'm not yet sure how (or if) they will place limits on trading metals. Can you imagine limitations on going long on gold or silver futures or even the US Dollar? (LOL).
I wonder if the CFTC will limit the number of naked short positions allowed in the silver market. Wouldn't it be interesting to actually have some transparency?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
RR Great article, this guy real did his homework on this article.
Mhammerman, this is what I have been saying all year, SLOWLY DOWN THE TUBES, I see no fix for most of the issues in this article as they are all tied together.
The two points I find most interesting are these, “We have seen new and open discussions telling us the credit of the largest economy is the world will be down-graded from AAA. This eventual down-grade makes all borrowing more costly in America.”
“Technically, we forecast gold at a minimum price of $2,960 with a probability of much higher prices. Silver is near $17 and $50 is a sure thing with our expectations of $176 to $256 within five years.”
First I disagree with Mr. Wiegend in that if you are a small third world country seeking a few billion in loans and have a BB bond rating perhaps the World Bank or some other fool will loan you money if the rate is high enough, but if you need a trillion plus per year I think you are SOL.
Second it seems impossible to us that we could reach these prices for Gold and Silver but these prices have already been seen in the currencies of other nations when their communist governments failed.
I wonder if the CFTC will limit the number of naked short positions allowed in the silver market. Wouldn't it be interesting to actually have some transparency?
Not likely imo since the politicians and bankers love the idea of manipulating metals downwards at will (and without any substantial metal actually being sold) to help with strengthening the dollar as required. In other words, they'll never limit the amount of PM's shorts, the more the merrier is applicable here. But for things they don't like to see manipulated (oil, gasoline, energy, agri-products, building supplies, daily consumer products, industrial metals, etc) count on legislation in our future...along with consumer quotas.
politicians and bankers love the idea of manipulating metals downwards at will (and without any substantial metal actually being sold) to help with strengthening the dollar as required. In other words, they'll never limit the amount of PM's shorts, the more the merrier is applicable here. But for things they don't like to see manipulated (oil, gasoline, energy, agri-products, building supplies, daily consumer products, industrial metals, etc) count on legislation in our future...along with consumer quotas.
So, we are coming to a full circle. They may not want precious metals to reflect what's happening, but they do anyway.
So, if they limit contract long positions on other commodities, how can they possibly justify not limiting naked short positions on the precious metals?
Let's just say that they take such an irrational stance in the commodity markets - limiting some, but not others. Limiting the speculative longs in oil, gasoline, corn, lumber - all that will do is to force market pricing sooner. Higher prices are here, whether Bernake thinks so or not, and whether he wants them or not.
Why have the speculators been going long? Oh - now I remember - because market demand AND inflation have been causing higher prices. In essence, if you have a long term physical position in precious metals, the rising price levels will come to you.
You don't need the speculators anyhow. So, leaving the naked shorts to play in their sandbox is irrelevant as well. At some point, the system breaks down and the relative values re-assert themselves.
If the CFTC regulates the markets in such a capricious way, they are only adding to the imbalances which will precipitate a total crisis. And when the crisis materializes, the precious metals really won't care whether they are regulated or not, because people will still need a medium of exchange.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
There were two articles last week that seemed interesting and notable. One was the need for a world currency that was backed by hard assets, we mentioned that a few weeks ago here. The article acknowledged that the Euro was a bust as was the USD so it's all paper and no assets or like we say in Texas, all hat and no cattle. The other article was about dual citizenships. It turns out that if any of your relatives such as great grandmother, etc were from say Germany, Greece, etc, then you can apply for dual citizenship and move between the US and second country at will. There is a demand for the dual citizenship passports right now and I suspect that with the goofy stuff that the US is involved in right now, it may be one of the more astute moves to go ahead and do the paper work right now in case folk have to flee. Of course, you'll need a place to stay once you do go "visit" so you're probably going to need another house; maybe like a time share or something that you can just take over if the need arises.
I am first generation here with my father from the Ukraine and mother from Czechoslovakia. They came to the U.S. with nothing. My Grandmother was from Austria. But here I will stay also no matter what.
It wasn't the plan. In 2005 I moved 15% of my retirement and about 40% of my cash into mostly silver( under $7). That was about 15% of my worth at the time. Now my house equity is hovering at zero(down almost 200K), my company ESOP has gone from 30 bucks a share to 4 bucks a share(mortgage banker) and my 401 and IRAs has been trimmed by 10-15%.
My PM investment is up about 150% which now comprises about 60-65% of my current worth. Logic tells me I should diversify a little and sell to buy what?? buy stocks?, bonds?, RE?
It wasn't the plan. In 2005 I moved 15% of my retirement and about 40% of my cash into mostly silver( under $7). That was about 15% of my worth at the time. Now my house equity is hovering at zero(down almost 200K), my company ESOP has gone from 30 bucks a share to 4 bucks a share(mortgage banker) and my 401 and IRAs has been trimmed by 10-15%.
My PM investment is up about 150% which now comprises about 60-65% of my current worth. Logic tells me I should diversify a little and sell to buy what?? buy stocks?, bonds?, RE?
Why sell a winner to buy losers?? Any ideas?? >>
I started out with a very solid investment plan. It was a three legged stool with polar opposites comprising each leg plus at least light diversification in each leg.
Over the years most of them have just sort of evaporated while others have become much stronger.
Now I'm sitting on a pyramid but am one earthquake away from disaster.
On one of the old Honeymooners episodes that is lost now there is the curse; "may a rich uncle die and leave you a million dollars... ...in bus tokens.
On one of the old Honeymooners episodes that is lost now there is the curse; "may a rich uncle die and leave you a million dollars... ...in bus tokens. >>
Another one is where Ralph says "Be nice to the people on the way up, cause you're going to meet the same people on the way down"
It wasn't the plan. In 2005 I moved 15% of my retirement and about 40% of my cash into mostly silver( under $7). That was about 15% of my worth at the time. Now my house equity is hovering at zero(down almost 200K), my company ESOP has gone from 30 bucks a share to 4 bucks a share(mortgage banker) and my 401 and IRAs has been trimmed by 10-15%.
My PM investment is up about 150% which now comprises about 60-65% of my current worth. Logic tells me I should diversify a little and sell to buy what?? buy stocks?, bonds?, RE?
Why sell a winner to buy losers?? Any ideas??
Paying down the mortgage is not a good idea, imo. What if you lose more equity? At least the payments are a tax deduction. Leave the mortgage alone.
Is the government printing more money and credit? People are realizing that the dollar is being trashed and that it does affect them, in their daily lives and in their retirement savings especially.
Conventional wisdom always stated that 0 to 10% should, or could be held in precious metals. From your own experience, you can figure how much good 5% to 10%% holdings in PMs would have done for you. Not alot.
Your financial managers sucked in their management of your money. Why would you leave it in their hands at this point?
If you hadn't had the foresight to put money into precious metals, where would things stand now? Based on your experience, I'd say that you should trust your own judgement as much as anyone else's here. Your decisions and your actions were vindicated.
Anyone who suggests that the old conventional financial wisdom is good for you at this point has an agenda, and it involves your money.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The guys pumping metals on every TV station want your money, too.
They are the same pump and dump monkeys that put the peasants into gold and silver in 1980. That worked out for the pumpers, not so much for the peasants.
The ONE thing I know for sure: You will never go broke taking a profit.
It is likely about time to take some metal profits, for those who have not already done so.
...............
I run and invest in pawn shops. Pledges are at a 30-year high. Redemptions are at a 35-year low. Cash is king; soon to be a god.
Folks Who Bite Get Bitten. Folks Who Don't Bite Get Eaten.
Comments
<< <i> So, whats to worry about?
LOL, you forgot LEH on that list-- speculation that it is the next shoe to drop. Will the Fed bail out LEH at the taxpayer's expense as well?
New page bump
GOLD 2008 $915
2009 $850
2010 $725
beyond $600
SILVER 2008 $17.25
2009 $15.50
2010 $14.00
beyond $12.00
you know. i am tending to agree with this. we had this big crisis
with a large bank failing and gold could only stay above 1000 bucks
for how many hours/days? pretty pathetic actually.
it will take a huge massacre of the economy to make gold bugs dreams
come true. several large banks. don't you think that these banks
would not be well aware of this possibility and working to avert
that crisis in the short and medium term?
be prepared for gold to be snoozeville very quickly here. it will
truly be a commodity again and out of the news.
i am bearish of course. the corner has been turned unless you expect
the worst... which i think many of you do.
Washington, DC - Congress is considering sweeping legislation that will provide new benefits for many Americans. The Americans With No Abilities Act (AWNAA) is being hailed as a major legislative goal by advocates of the millions of Americans who lack any real skills or ambition.
'Roughly 50 percent of Americans do not possess the competence and drive necessary to carve out a meaningful role for themselves in society,' said California Senator Barbara Boxer. 'We can no longer stand by and allow People of Inability to be ridiculed and passed over. With this legislation, employers will no longer be able to grant special favors to a small group of workers, simply because they have some idea of what they are doing.'
In a Capitol Hill press conference, House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pointed to the success of the U.S. Postal Service, which has a long-standing policy of providing opportunity without regard to performance. Approximately 74 percent of postal employees lack any job skills, making this agency the single largest U.S employer of Persons of Inability.
Private-sector industries with good records of non-discrimination against the Inept include retail sales (72%), the airline industry (68%), and home improvement 'warehouse' stores (65%). At the state government level, the Department of Motor Vehicles also has an excellent record of hiring Persons of Inability (63%).
Under The Americans With No Abilities Act, more than 25 million 'middle man' positions will be created, with important-sounding titles but little real responsibility, thus providing an illusory sense of purpose and performance.
Mandatory non-performance-based raises and promotions will be given so as to guarantee upward mobility for even the most unremarkable employees. The legislation provides substantial tax breaks to corporations that promote a significant number of Persons of Inability into middle-management positions, and gives a tax credit to small and medium-sized businesses that agree to hire one clueless worker for every two talented hires.
Finally, the AWNAA contains tough new measures to make it more difficult to discriminate against the Non-abled, banning, for example, discriminatory interview questions such as, 'Do you have any skills or experience that relate to this job?'
'As a Non-abled person, I can't be expected to keep up with people who have something going for them,' said Mary Lou Gertz, who lost her position as a lug-nut twister at the GM plant in Flint , Michigan , due to her inability to remember 'rightey tightey, lefty loosey.' 'This new law should be real good for people like me,' Gertz added. With the passage of this bill, Gertz and millions of other untalented citizens will finally see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Said Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL): 'As a Senator with no abilities, I believe the same privileges that elected officials enjoy ought to be extended to every American with no abilities. It is our duty as lawmakers to provide each and every American citizen, regardless of his or her inadequacy, with some sort of space to take up in this great nation and a good salary for doing so.'
10 years ago ;-) it is slightly changed for the times though.
<< <i>Now, for the input from HSBC Global Research and their team's projections for average gold and silver prices for the short and medium term. >>
A major bank is the last place I'd seek analysis on hard assets for obvious reasons.
<< <i>
<< <i>Now, for the input from HSBC Global Research and their team's projections for average gold and silver prices for the short and medium term. >>
A major bank is the last place I'd seek analysis on hard assets for obvious reasons. >>
yet many here preach the "gospel according to Sinclair" as solid advice about gold.
is his bias somehow different?
underlying trends. These trends will stay in place until a funda-
mental or structural change causes them to reverse.
This can be as simple as merely running its course but in this case
there should be signs that inflation has repaired the damage wrought
by irresponsible fiscal policy. This will be a process rather than an event.
This process itself will cause more damage.
I'm expecting continued massive swings for the short term and continued
erosion in currencies. Oil could get caught up in a brief downdraft since
reduced demand has a little chance to assert itself but until there is an
actual policy in place to reduce oil consumption on a worldwide basis the
trend in oil will stay intact as well.
<< <i>... but until there is an
actual policy in place to reduce oil consumption on a worldwide basis the
trend in oil will stay intact as well. >>
There is. It's called high prices. This market force will do more to encourage conservation/investment in alternative energy than any government policies ever could.
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
<< <i>
<< <i>... but until there is an
actual policy in place to reduce oil consumption on a worldwide basis the
trend in oil will stay intact as well. >>
There is. It's called high prices. This market force will do more to encourage conservation/investment in alternative energy than any government policies ever could. >>
You can't build much of anything anywhere without governmental permission.
This problem is too big for conservation and individual effort alone. (or at least it will be at some indeterminant point in the future.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>... but until there is an
actual policy in place to reduce oil consumption on a worldwide basis the
trend in oil will stay intact as well. >>
There is. It's called high prices. This market force will do more to encourage conservation/investment in alternative energy than any government policies ever could. >>
You can't build much of anything anywhere without governmental permission.
This problem is too big for conservation and individual effort alone. (or at least it will be at some indeterminant point in the future. >>
an individual could choose to buy a car that gets 45+ MPG. actually,
i just did. toyota cannot make them fast enough. the waiting list
is at 3-6 months depending on the region for the prius. i would bet
that most here cannot even recognize one on the roads.
i switched every lightbulb in the house to the newer more efficient
ones that do not blow out every time a door is shut due to the cheap
filament inside the old bulbs. they break, not wear out in my experience
due to vibrations.
i turn the heat down in the house during winter and set it for 65ish.
i live close to my job, grocery store, etc.. i live downtown and expect
more people to change their suburbain ways of commuting an hour
each way. how silly!
the list is endless and millions of people are doing it. you really need
to get out and explore the options available from new home designs
to simply walking or riding a bike more to go pick up your 12 pack
of beer ;-)
<< <i>
an individual could choose to buy a car that gets 45+ MPG. actually,
i just did. toyota cannot make them fast enough. the waiting list
is at 3-6 months depending on the region for the prius. i would bet
that most here cannot even recognize one on the roads.
i switched every lightbulb in the house to the newer more efficient
ones that do not blow out every time a door is shut due to the cheap
filament inside the old bulbs. they break, not wear out in my experience
due to vibrations.
i turn the heat down in the house during winter and set it for 65ish.
i live close to my job, grocery store, etc.. i live downtown and expect
more people to change their suburbain ways of commuting an hour
each way. how silly!
the list is endless and millions of people are doing it. you really need
to get out and explore the options available from new home designs
to simply walking or riding a bike more to go pick up your 12 pack
of beer ;-) >>
The amount of waste in the US is simply staggering. Individuals use or waste far more energy and
resources than are needed even for the ways of life they've chosen. With a few changes they could
use far less than what they do. Industry in the US may be even bigger energy hogs. Huge reductions
in waste are possible with no effect on production were they to put effort into the problem.
Individuals can make changes virtually overnight and most certainly will if it's forced on them but most
of the folks with Hummers and mcmansions are hardly going to be affected by $1000 heating bills and
$100 fillups. Here we've had oil prices up eight fold in recent years and we've seen our first 1% reduc-
tion in gas usage. Changing corporate behavior can take generations.
The US uses a small and declining fraction of the world oil production and may be enterrig recession.
The rest of the world is booming in many places and enjoying spectacular growth rates. This won't
slow and oil production could be peaking.
There are lots of people who have always used as little as possible. How will they cut back?
half as many of us left. That will save a lot of
energy.
Camelot
you know. i am tending to agree with this. we had this big crisis
with a large bank failing and gold could only stay above 1000 bucks
for how many hours/days? pretty pathetic actually.
Recall that the FED sequestered the end of that week and weekend to come up with a game plan Sunday night and into Monday day to contain the BSC carnage. They knew what would happen if they didn't act so they had days to plan it out knowing that BSC was already all but bankrupt. They began by having their minions stampede gold overseas Sunday night well before the US open on Monday. They continued the naked short selling into that Monday hitting hedge fund black box stops all the way down. It was probably time for a gold breather and the FED happened to pick the perfect opportunity to turn a disaster into a PR gem by showing how they "saved" BSC. It was ideal timing to say the least. The attack was well coordinated throughout the world. They had all their ducks lined up to sell at each opening. So how many more times will they be able to pull off such a stunt as major banks/brokerages go poof?
Will the next one be swallowed down as easy by the public as BSC was?
yet many here preach the "gospel according to Sinclair" as solid advice about gold is his bias somehow different?
One obvious fact is that Sinclair has called every major change in the gold price since 2001. He may have not been dead on with respect to the month when a major resistance point was taken out, but he has called each and every one of them. In fact he picked all the resistance points to $887 by the time gold was just over $300 back in 2002 and was certain they would each come. Check out the track record of HSBC, GS, JPM, and the others on their gold "calls" over the past 7 yrs. Bottom line is that JS has been right at all of his major angels. The last one taken out was $887 on the way past $900 to $1000. One would be foolish not to heed his next calls of $1200 by end of 2008 and $1650 by January 2011. Note that he has put up $1 MILL of his own money on a bet with a private party. That's what makes him different. What he doesn't do is tell you when to sell, that's up to each individual to learn the tools he provides. And it's no secret that the bullish calls of many pro-gold advisors are used as points of opportunity by the cartel to punish gold (and it works). Hence far fewer details of bullish calls being printed that provide the FED ammunition to stampede gold. FWIW Sinclair called the bottom of $846 a few weeks back. He also predicted it would hold and so far it has. Call the man biased if you want, but someone putting $25 MILL of their own money into their own mining company speaks of commitment rather than speculation which is what the majority of gold players are actually doing. Check out the Barrick officers who were recently dumping their own stock holdings! JS's advice on derivatives 6 years ago and what they would do to the economy (and the gold market) in a few short years has played out to a tee. What major bank published something similar to that (lol)?
When Sinclair is proven dead wrong and totally out of touch with what gold, the economy, and currencies are doing, then let him be discredited at that time. Until then, his advice of higher gold prices beyond $1000-$1200 should be considered. Who is his competition that we should be listening to? Bernanke? Paulson? Fed governors?
When a race horse has consistently lead the pack and showed you the way year after year, you hang in there until it can't race any more (ie that horse is still racing well). It doesn't hurt that JS bailed out of the gold market in early 1980 just day(s) before it peaked. He did not linger in the 80's or 90's like a Ruff-timer or Harry Schulz expounded on gold's return at any moment. In fact Sinclair only returned to the gold wars just after the 1999-2001 peaks in the Stock Markets. Sure seems like he knows when to stay and when to leave. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. What other major gold players give freely of their time (for free), accepts phone calls, emails and faxes from students and actually gets back to them?
I see a lot less bias in these actions than on the part of anyone else in the pro-gold world.
My money stays with the "gold barkers" rather than with Paulsen and his cronies. One group has been essentially right all along while the other has been wrong all along. Not a hard decision. The fact that for the past 7 years JS has sounded and acted believable at what he has said. I cannot say that for anyone involved the mainstream banking/brokerage sector. Feel free to put all your money on the banks to recover. I'll stick with the barbarous relic for a while longer until the long term trend line breaks down for good.
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>... but until there is an
actual policy in place to reduce oil consumption on a worldwide basis the
trend in oil will stay intact as well. >>
There is. It's called high prices. This market force will do more to encourage conservation/investment in alternative energy than any government policies ever could. >>
who has the most market share, ford, GM, honda? go green...
Yea that and honda saving the world with there all new hydrogen fuel cell car.. 2.3 percent dividen
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
<< <i>After the next World War, there will only be
half as many of us left. That will save a lot of
energy.
Negative Nancy...
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
be 60% left alive. Better?
Just kidding.
Camelot
From Briefing.com.........
The announced death of the consumer was once again premature. May retail sales jumped 1.0%. Excluding gasoline sales (impacted by price), the increase was a still very strong 0.8%. The total excluding auto sales was 1.2%, as auto sales once again lowered the total figure. The April changes were also revised sharply higher. Total retail sales were revised to an increase of 1.0% from an originally reported 0.5%, and excluding autos the increase is now at 0.4% from an originally reported -0.2%. Coupled with the strong May same-store sales gains for retailers, these data should convincingly show that the fiscal stimulus and regular spending trends are not being completely destroyed by higher gas prices. It is likely that consumer spending in June and July will also post good gains. The good trend on consumer spending as the second quarter begins greatly reduces the risk of a very weak second quarter real GDP gain. It is likely that forecasts will start to climb to the 1.5% to 2% range. These data are clearly strong
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> The US uses a small and declining fraction of the world oil production and may be enterrig recession.
The rest of the world is booming in many places and enjoying spectacular growth rates. This won't
slow and oil production could be peaking. >>
And this at our expense as well. If they didn't have the U.S. as a marketplace maybe things might not be so rosy for them.
<< <i>US economy takes a licking but keeps on ticking. Dollar strong especially against the YEN. Whats going on STig? Gold/silver getting whacked. Silver may be breaking uptrend line. Will try to post a chart when I get a chance.
From Briefing.com.........
The announced death of the consumer was once again premature. May retail sales jumped 1.0%. Excluding gasoline sales (impacted by price), the increase was a still very strong 0.8%. The total excluding auto sales was 1.2%, as auto sales once again lowered the total figure. The April changes were also revised sharply higher. Total retail sales were revised to an increase of 1.0% from an originally reported 0.5%, and excluding autos the increase is now at 0.4% from an originally reported -0.2%. Coupled with the strong May same-store sales gains for retailers, these data should convincingly show that the fiscal stimulus and regular spending trends are not being completely destroyed by higher gas prices. It is likely that consumer spending in June and July will also post good gains. The good trend on consumer spending as the second quarter begins greatly reduces the risk of a very weak second quarter real GDP gain. It is likely that forecasts will start to climb to the 1.5% to 2% range. These data are clearly strong >>
Hello. I was short euro last night on gold weakness. Yes I saw the strength in the dollar, Regardless of a rally, further weakness is inevitable. Thats the beauty of living in the now, and risk management. I was still able to profit.. The big dip is yet to come for the dollar..
The safest play was to short euros.. Today I suspect the dollar to strengthen slightly more before, a down turn on profit taking, before the close, or as soon as tomorrow.
The fundamentals have not changed, people are taking more profits from Oil expecting a risk aversion, and may accelerate.
One thing that did change is the fact that higher global currency prices allowed for the run up in dollars.
Its a short term fix on a global shift, considering the amount of cash the fed invested for this very/manipulation/ longer term plan..
We are just seeing the infuse of the money shifting short term... The deficit dictates the way the dollar will go in the near future.
The dollar on the other hand, will remain under pressure.. Next week if the dow closes below 12,000 you will have your conformation of the down turn.. IMHO...
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
In a conversation with a specialist that does private environmental evaluations for developers (cultural resources, Corps permitting, wetlands evaluation, threatened and endangered species) prior to the developers getting local permits and issuing plans and specifications, he had this to say... "There is a lot of money coming here from California corporate level development firms. The land developers are receiving huge investment fund portfolios to manage from the middle east, the numbers are huge."
He further talked about thousand and multi thousand acre developments in areas where there has never been any significant development, the hurricane prone Texas gulf coast. That means totally new infrastructure and that stuff is expensive because it has to be done from the ground up all the way from roads, wastewater treatment, power...the whole thing; there's not much out there. I had heard some rumors and seen a couple of small town news paper articles about some developments that are in the wings but I haven't seen any specific details about them.
Apparently, this is just now coming on but there is a huge megawad of buks headed into/already in the US for development and we're talking Dubai and oil money here and let me repeat MEGAWAD. I suspect Texas Gulf coast is not the only area to receive this inflow of development. So, don't be too parochial here...things are happening. Read and pay attention, there might be a play. I'm thinking land has got to be an investment due fair consideration here considering paper, banks, PM, all the traditional short term plays are just so sketchy. The other interesting note is that it's foreign money and they don't have to go through the US tax grinder so they can pretty much tell the agencies to stuff it in their wazoo. Not trying to promote anything...just a note to pay attention to land.
As rr noted, Sinclair has been in, and out of the gold market correctly. His advice is valued not because he is a goldbug, but because he knows how to interpret economic data and Fed policy in spite of the fact that the data is purposefully obscured so that "common people" don't have access.
It's not conspiracy theory to question why central bankers are allowed to trash the economy and the dollar to the detriment of most working folks. If demanding an explanation and a remedy for a shrinking dollar is folly, then we must not really have a problem.
How many people think that the Fed is responsible for inflation, and how many think that "high prices" are responsible for inflation? It's such a simple concept, that if you don't understand the relationship between money and credit vs. inflation - you will never figure out why your savings and retirement investments just don't seem to get traction.
There's definitely a tug and pull going on between the governments and the people. The framers of the Constitution warned against the central banks, and they were apparently much wiser than popular culture gives them credit for.
I knew it would happen.
I dont know why these companies dont look at Detroit. It has probably one of the most extensive infrastructures already in place. There are legions of ready and willing workers and real estate would be cheap of acquire. And no hurricanes.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>He further talked about thousand and multi thousand acre developments in areas where there has never been any significant development, the hurricane prone Texas gulf coast. That means totally new infrastructure and that stuff is expensive because it has to be done from the ground up all the way from roads, wastewater treatment, power...the whole thing; there's not much out there
I dont know why these companies dont look at Detroit. It has probably one of the most extensive infrastructures already in place. There are legions of ready and willing workers and real estate would be cheap of acquire. And no hurricanes.
Because Detroit just isn't COOL enough. You have to go somewhere trendy and cool or everybody will laugh at you.
Not the most optimistic of articles, but I'd say it's closer to the truth than the picture that Bernanke and Paulson currently paint. Thousands of bank failures coming?.........Yikes.
Trader Rog on the economy
roadrunner
<< <i>Only question with Lehman, Citigroup, Merrill, etc is who's next?
Not the most optimistic of articles, but I'd say it's closer to the truth than the picture that Bernanke and Paulson currently paint.
Thousands of bank failures coming?.........Yikes.
Trader Rog on the economy
roadrunner >>
This guy is missing an important point; the world is founded on smoke and mirrors. If
you look at how hot dogs are made or watch too closely the man behind the curtain you
are likely to run screaming into the night. We made it through 1979 and 1996. We'll al-
most certainly make it through 2008 as well unless too many people look too closely.
It does seem as though we are setting up for catastrophic failure in the foreseeable fu-
ture because of a lack of response to fundamental changes. But these shouldn't affect
us in 2008.
I would agree that somehow the FED will muddle us all through 2008 and the elections, but 2009 appears to be the start of a serious reckoning that will last for several more years. Housing won't even begin to clean itself up until 2011-2012.
Year-Over-Year Inflation (from Richard Benson)
As of June 2008 (1)
Zimbabwe 1,000,000% U.A.E 12%
Argentina (2) 25 to 30% Turkey 11%
Latvia 30% Costa Rica 11%
Venezuela 29% South Africa 11%
Vietnam 25% Philippines 10%
Iran 25% Indonesia 10%
Egypt 21% Guatemala 10%
Pakistan 18% Saudi 10%
Bolivia 15% China 9%
Nicaragua 14% India 8%
Russia 14% Chile 8%
Qatar 14% Thailand 8%
roadrunner
I wonder if the CFTC will limit the number of naked short positions allowed in the silver market. Wouldn't it be interesting to actually have some transparency?
I knew it would happen.
RR Great article, this guy real did his homework on this article.
Mhammerman, this is what I have been saying all year, SLOWLY DOWN THE TUBES, I see no fix for most of the issues in this article as they are all tied together.
The two points I find most interesting are these,
“We have seen new and open discussions telling us the credit of the largest economy is the world will be down-graded from AAA. This eventual down-grade makes all borrowing more costly in America.”
“Technically, we forecast gold at a minimum price of $2,960 with a probability of much higher prices. Silver is near $17 and $50 is a sure thing with our expectations of $176 to $256 within five years.”
First I disagree with Mr. Wiegend in that if you are a small third world country seeking a few billion in loans and have a BB bond rating perhaps the World Bank or some other fool will loan you money if the rate is high enough, but if you need a trillion plus per year I think you are SOL.
Second it seems impossible to us that we could reach these prices for Gold and Silver but these prices have already been seen in the currencies of other nations when their communist governments failed.
Not likely imo since the politicians and bankers love the idea of manipulating metals downwards at will (and without any substantial metal actually being sold) to help with strengthening the dollar as required. In other words, they'll never limit the amount of PM's shorts, the more the merrier is applicable here. But for things they don't like to see manipulated (oil, gasoline, energy, agri-products, building supplies, daily consumer products, industrial metals, etc) count on legislation in our future...along with consumer quotas.
roadrunner
So, we are coming to a full circle. They may not want precious metals to reflect what's happening, but they do anyway.
So, if they limit contract long positions on other commodities, how can they possibly justify not limiting naked short positions on the precious metals?
Let's just say that they take such an irrational stance in the commodity markets - limiting some, but not others. Limiting the speculative longs in oil, gasoline, corn, lumber - all that will do is to force market pricing sooner. Higher prices are here, whether Bernake thinks so or not, and whether he wants them or not.
Why have the speculators been going long? Oh - now I remember - because market demand AND inflation have been causing higher prices. In essence, if you have a long term physical position in precious metals, the rising price levels will come to you.
You don't need the speculators anyhow. So, leaving the naked shorts to play in their sandbox is irrelevant as well. At some point, the system breaks down and the relative values re-assert themselves.
If the CFTC regulates the markets in such a capricious way, they are only adding to the imbalances which will precipitate a total crisis. And when the crisis materializes, the precious metals really won't care whether they are regulated or not, because people will still need a medium of exchange.
I knew it would happen.
resort. Whatever comes, here is where I choose to make
my stand. For better of for worse, my country.
Camelot
<< <i>I am afraid that the USA is my country of first and last
resort. Whatever comes, here is where I choose to make
my stand. For better of for worse, my country. >>
Well said! Amen.
Box of 20
It wasn't the plan. In 2005 I moved 15% of my retirement and about 40% of my cash into mostly silver( under $7). That was about 15% of my worth at the time. Now my house equity is hovering at zero(down almost 200K), my company ESOP has gone from 30 bucks a share to 4 bucks a share(mortgage banker) and my 401 and IRAs has been trimmed by 10-15%.
My PM investment is up about 150% which now comprises about 60-65% of my current worth. Logic tells me I should diversify a little and sell to buy what?? buy stocks?, bonds?, RE?
Why sell a winner to buy losers?? Any ideas??
Could pay the mortgage down a bit.
<< <i>Should I have 65% of my net worth in PMs??
It wasn't the plan. In 2005 I moved 15% of my retirement and about 40% of my cash into mostly silver( under $7). That was about 15% of my worth at the time. Now my house equity is hovering at zero(down almost 200K), my company ESOP has gone from 30 bucks a share to 4 bucks a share(mortgage banker) and my 401 and IRAs has been trimmed by 10-15%.
My PM investment is up about 150% which now comprises about 60-65% of my current worth. Logic tells me I should diversify a little and sell to buy what?? buy stocks?, bonds?, RE?
Why sell a winner to buy losers?? Any ideas?? >>
I started out with a very solid investment plan. It was a three legged stool
with polar opposites comprising each leg plus at least light diversification in
each leg.
Over the years most of them have just sort of evaporated while others have
become much stronger.
Now I'm sitting on a pyramid but am one earthquake away from disaster.
On one of the old Honeymooners episodes that is lost now there is the curse;
"may a rich uncle die and leave you a million dollars... ...in bus tokens.
<< <i>
<< <i>
On one of the old Honeymooners episodes that is lost now there is the curse;
"may a rich uncle die and leave you a million dollars... ...in bus tokens. >>
Another one is where Ralph says "Be nice to the people on the way up, cause you're going to meet the same people on the way down"
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>
Another one is where Ralph says "Be nice to the people on the way up, cause you're going to meet the same people on the way down"
Indeed. And you never know when you might want to sell some bus token at a 10% discount.
It wasn't the plan. In 2005 I moved 15% of my retirement and about 40% of my cash into mostly silver( under $7). That was about 15% of my worth at the time. Now my house equity is hovering at zero(down almost 200K), my company ESOP has gone from 30 bucks a share to 4 bucks a share(mortgage banker) and my 401 and IRAs has been trimmed by 10-15%.
My PM investment is up about 150% which now comprises about 60-65% of my current worth. Logic tells me I should diversify a little and sell to buy what?? buy stocks?, bonds?, RE?
Why sell a winner to buy losers?? Any ideas??
Paying down the mortgage is not a good idea, imo. What if you lose more equity? At least the payments are a tax deduction. Leave the mortgage alone.
Is the government printing more money and credit? People are realizing that the dollar is being trashed and that it does affect them, in their daily lives and in their retirement savings especially.
Conventional wisdom always stated that 0 to 10% should, or could be held in precious metals. From your own experience, you can figure how much good 5% to 10%% holdings in PMs would have done for you. Not alot.
Your financial managers sucked in their management of your money. Why would you leave it in their hands at this point?
If you hadn't had the foresight to put money into precious metals, where would things stand now? Based on your experience, I'd say that you should trust your own judgement as much as anyone else's here. Your decisions and your actions were vindicated.
Anyone who suggests that the old conventional financial wisdom is good for you at this point has an agenda, and it involves your money.
I knew it would happen.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
The guys pumping metals on every TV station want your money, too.
They are the same pump and dump monkeys that put the peasants into
gold and silver in 1980. That worked out for the pumpers, not so much
for the peasants.
The ONE thing I know for sure: You will never go broke taking a profit.
It is likely about time to take some metal profits, for those who have not already done so.
...............
I run and invest in pawn shops. Pledges are at a 30-year high. Redemptions are at a
35-year low. Cash is king; soon to be a god.