The RP Morgan base PCGS submissions as of Nov 30th are currently only 50% PR70's. The first strikes are 70% PR70's.
Considering this, a lot of people will be disappointed when they get their results because they could have bought graded 70's for very close to the same total cost, and now they have expensive 69's. The early bulk submissions must have had a lot of graded, but not slabbed (or counted), 69's that they had to get rid of.
2023 MORGAN AND PEACE SILVER REVERSE PROOF 2-COIN SET (S) 189,689 (16,488)
Will be very interesting to see the numbers next week. I bet a lot of those 16,488 were 69's. The early 5-coin limit may have generated early sales, but many have changed their minds after looking at the coins they received and seeing sale prices decline on eBay.
@Goldminers said:
The RP Morgan base PCGS submissions as of Nov 30th are currently only 50% PR70's. The first strikes are 70% PR70's.
Considering this, a lot of people will be disappointed when they get their results because they could have bought graded 70's for very close to the same total cost, and now they have expensive 69's. The early bulk submissions must have had a lot of graded, but not slabbed (or counted), 69's that they had to get rid of.
Yes and no. I cannot speak to what is going on with base submissions, but I am not a bulk submitter and got a 70% 70 rate, which seems consistent with the way the bulk guys have been pricing their 70s. YMMV.
@Goldminers said:
The RP Morgan base PCGS submissions as of Nov 30th are currently only 50% PR70's. The first strikes are 70% PR70's.
Considering this, a lot of people will be disappointed when they get their results because they could have bought graded 70's for very close to the same total cost, and now they have expensive 69's. The early bulk submissions must have had a lot of graded, but not slabbed (or counted), 69's that they had to get rid of.
Yes and no. I cannot speak to what is going on with base submissions, but I am not a bulk submitter and got a 70% 70 rate, which seems consistent with the way the bulk guys have been pricing their 70s. YMMV.
1st strike is available to everyone. That is not the number to look at to see the bulk submitters. FDOI or Advance Release are the ones only available to bulk submitters.
2023 MORGAN AND PEACE SILVER REVERSE PROOF 2-COIN SET (S) 206,177 (14,195)
Here we go again. Another issue super hyped up and will not sell out.
If you have volume (100+) sets to flip you need to pre sell or get out within a few days.
2023 MORGAN AND PEACE SILVER REVERSE PROOF 2-COIN SET (S) 189,689 (16,488)
Sorry—wrong quote.
We are at 189k of 250k.
I suspect several other large revisions downward in coming weeks.
Seems like the 2017 enhanced unc set debacle all over again.
Personally, I'm fine with a downward adjustment. A lot of people stayed away because they thought 250,000 was too much. If it unexpectedly comes in much lower and catches people by surprise then that can only help future value.
It the sets that are out there are in "strong hands" and aren't available on the secondary msrhet then available inventory will be low.
2023 MORGAN AND PEACE SILVER REVERSE PROOF 2-COIN SET (S) 206,177 (14,195)
Here we go again. Another issue super hyped up and will not sell out.
If you have volume (100+) sets to flip you need to pre sell or get out within a few days.
I agree the mint is creating a disaster with this product right now. They have refused to make these available for the last 2 weeks, and I’m curious about their reasoning. First strike deadline is fast approaching, and I think these are going to be an extremely tough sell for them now. The dealer demand has waned with no “pop” by having these unavailable for many days now. Unless 1-2 big boys come in and buy the majority of the 50,000+ available, these are going to spread widely only to collectors from direct mint sales, and value will quickly drop below issue price.
The 1 good thing that may come of this is the mint is going to be stuck with a lot of these, and they will downward revise mintage figures on these in 2024.
US Mint Sales: 105 Products Outshine with Robust Growth
By
Mike Unser -
November 29, 2023
The latest weekly sales data from the United States Mint showed a higher sales volume, with 105 products outperforming their prior weekly gains, compared to the 35 products from the previous week. This level of performance was the best seen in about two months.
The U.S. Mint’s 2023 Proof Set was one of the out-performers, and it also claimed the position of the highest weekly seller, rising by 7,766 units to a total of 344,544. It also showed respectable gains in the prior week, increasing by 5,464 units. The Mint’s second-best selling product of the week was the 2023 Silver Proof Set, which saw a rise of 2,727 units, reaching a total of 176,648, compared to a gain of 1,827 units in the prior week.
Several Products Also Retreat in Sales
Conversely, 11 Mint products experienced a decline in weekly sales, compared to the 8 in the prior report. Among these eleven products, seven showed reductions of at least several hundred.
Leading them all was the 2023-S Morgan and Peace Silver Dollar Reverse Proof Set, which saw its sales retreat for a second consecutive week following its launch on Nov. 9. The set experienced a hefty decline of 16,488 units, dropping to 189,689 after falling by 14,195 units the previous week.
@Goldbully said: Leading them all was the 2023-S Morgan and Peace Silver Dollar Reverse Proof Set, which saw its sales retreat for a second consecutive week following its launch on Nov. 9. The set experienced a hefty decline of 16,488 units, dropping to 189,689 after falling by 14,195 units the previous week.
How is that possible when this set is on "Remind Me" status?
@Goldbully said: Leading them all was the 2023-S Morgan and Peace Silver Dollar Reverse Proof Set, which saw its sales retreat for a second consecutive week following its launch on Nov. 9. The set experienced a hefty decline of 16,488 units, dropping to 189,689 after falling by 14,195 units the previous week.
How is that possible when this set is on "Remind Me" status?
They have to inspect them before they can resell them. There's always a lag.
@Goldminers said:
The RP Morgan base PCGS submissions as of Nov 30th are currently only 50% PR70's. The first strikes are 70% PR70's.
Considering this, a lot of people will be disappointed when they get their results because they could have bought graded 70's for very close to the same total cost, and now they have expensive 69's. The early bulk submissions must have had a lot of graded, but not slabbed (or counted), 69's that they had to get rid of.
Yes and no. I cannot speak to what is going on with base submissions, but I am not a bulk submitter and got a 70% 70 rate, which seems consistent with the way the bulk guys have been pricing their 70s. YMMV.
1st strike is available to everyone. That is not the number to look at to see the bulk submitters. FDOI or Advance Release are the ones only available to bulk submitters.
I KNOW. What I'm saying is that I was not able to exclude 69s, and I got 70% 70s, not 50%. I understand mine is a small sample size, but still.
@Goldminers said:
The RP Morgan base PCGS submissions as of Nov 30th are currently only 50% PR70's. The first strikes are 70% PR70's.
Considering this, a lot of people will be disappointed when they get their results because they could have bought graded 70's for very close to the same total cost, and now they have expensive 69's. The early bulk submissions must have had a lot of graded, but not slabbed (or counted), 69's that they had to get rid of.
Yes and no. I cannot speak to what is going on with base submissions, but I am not a bulk submitter and got a 70% 70 rate, which seems consistent with the way the bulk guys have been pricing their 70s. YMMV.
1st strike is available to everyone. That is not the number to look at to see the bulk submitters. FDOI or Advance Release are the ones only available to bulk submitters.
I KNOW. What I'm saying is that I was not able to exclude 69s, and I got 70% 70s, not 50%. I understand mine is a small sample size, but still.
I wasn't arguing with you. I was making the point to @goldminers
At this point I don't give a flying flip about these. Had subscriptions for 35 and dropped that down to two. And the two sets I received were absolutely stunning and I am happy to have them. I am so glad I don't have to worry about trying to flip any of these. The mintage is just to high.
@Goldminers said:
The RP Morgan base PCGS submissions as of Nov 30th are currently only 50% PR70's. The first strikes are 70% PR70's.
Considering this, a lot of people will be disappointed when they get their results because they could have bought graded 70's for very close to the same total cost, and now they have expensive 69's. The early bulk submissions must have had a lot of graded, but not slabbed (or counted), 69's that they had to get rid of.
Yes and no. I cannot speak to what is going on with base submissions, but I am not a bulk submitter and got a 70% 70 rate, which seems consistent with the way the bulk guys have been pricing their 70s. YMMV.
1st strike is available to everyone. That is not the number to look at to see the bulk submitters. FDOI or Advance Release are the ones only available to bulk submitters.
I KNOW. What I'm saying is that I was not able to exclude 69s, and I got 70% 70s, not 50%. I understand mine is a small sample size, but still.
I wasn't arguing with you. I was making the point to @goldminers
Sorry for the misunderstanding, but you quoted my post in yours, so I thought you were making the point to me!
@Goldminers said:
The RP Morgan base PCGS submissions as of Nov 30th are currently only 50% PR70's. The first strikes are 70% PR70's.
Considering this, a lot of people will be disappointed when they get their results because they could have bought graded 70's for very close to the same total cost, and now they have expensive 69's. The early bulk submissions must have had a lot of graded, but not slabbed (or counted), 69's that they had to get rid of.
Yes and no. I cannot speak to what is going on with base submissions, but I am not a bulk submitter and got a 70% 70 rate, which seems consistent with the way the bulk guys have been pricing their 70s. YMMV.
1st strike is available to everyone. That is not the number to look at to see the bulk submitters. FDOI or Advance Release are the ones only available to bulk submitters.
I KNOW. What I'm saying is that I was not able to exclude 69s, and I got 70% 70s, not 50%. I understand mine is a small sample size, but still.
I wasn't arguing with you. I was making the point to @goldminers
Sorry for the misunderstanding, but you quoted my post in yours, so I thought you were making the point to me!
Sorry. I quoted the whole thread. I deleted your name at the bottom but it was apparently also at the top.
@Goldminers said:
The RP Morgan base PCGS submissions as of Nov 30th are currently only 50% PR70's. The first strikes are 70% PR70's.
Considering this, a lot of people will be disappointed when they get their results because they could have bought graded 70's for very close to the same total cost, and now they have expensive 69's. The early bulk submissions must have had a lot of graded, but not slabbed (or counted), 69's that they had to get rid of.
Yes and no. I cannot speak to what is going on with base submissions, but I am not a bulk submitter and got a 70% 70 rate, which seems consistent with the way the bulk guys have been pricing their 70s. YMMV.
1st strike is available to everyone. That is not the number to look at to see the bulk submitters. FDOI or Advance Release are the ones only available to bulk submitters.
I KNOW. What I'm saying is that I was not able to exclude 69s, and I got 70% 70s, not 50%. I understand mine is a small sample size, but still.
I wasn't arguing with you. I was making the point to @goldminers
I also know. LOL.
PCGS does not report the number of coins graded by the bulk submitters, only the ones slabbed, which are usually requested to be only 70's. I use the base and first strikes populations, which are available to everyone, as a proxy to try to guess what the bulk submitters may have ended up with. Overall, my point is the Morgan's have more problems than the Peace and based on the more than 30,000 reductions in sales reports the past two weeks, it does not look like the market really wanted to keep 250,000 of these.
@RichR said:
Has anyone used this holder to house any of the new Morgan and Peace dollars?
Capital says it won't fit ASE coins but I think the Morgan & Peace coins should fit...as they're a bit smaller.
Appears to be a Galaxy GX52A for "U.S. silver dollars". The single Capital holders for "silver dollars" are for 38.1 mm coins. So, it looks like it might be compatible. Reference
To be positive, you could always confirm with Capital Plastics.
PH: 440.632.5800
e-mail: collector@capitalplastics.com
Edited to Add:
I was thinking about doing something like this myself. As such, your post prompted me to ask Capital about this specific holder.
The rep I spoke with said that the opening on their Galaxy GX52A was designed for a coin with a 1.5 inch diameter.
@Goldminers said:
PCGS does not report the number of coins graded by the bulk submitters, only the ones slabbed, which are usually requested to be only 70's. I use the base and first strikes populations, which are available to everyone, as a proxy to try to guess what the bulk submitters may have ended up with.
The host here is very generous with their population reports - it's too bad they don't indicate those bulk submissions that are submitted for grading, yet are not graded.
There would be no value in the additional data, other than knowing that there are other coins out there that were reviewed and are not of such quality to be graded at 70.
Thanks for doing the legwork re the holder...1.5 inches...that should do the trick!!!
I'll probably get 2 holders...one for all the 2021 coins and a second for all the 2023 coins...and maybe they'll also develop some color over the decades!!!
I still have sealed boxes listed on BST. NOT MUCH INTERST TO DATW. If they don't sell soon, I will inbox them and pur them I the safe. My 2nd option is sending the RP and the other 4 issues to NGC. These are nice looking dollars and just putting them in the safe is OK too.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
@Goldminers said:
PCGS does not report the number of coins graded by the bulk submitters, only the ones slabbed, which are usually requested to be only 70's. I use the base and first strikes populations, which are available to everyone, as a proxy to try to guess what the bulk submitters may have ended up with.
The host here is very generous with their population reports - it's too bad they don't indicate those bulk submissions that are submitted for grading, yet are not graded.
There would be no value in the additional data, other than knowing that there are other coins out there that were reviewed and are not of such quality to be graded at 70.
They do not like to advertise the existence of these other programs.
@Goldminers said:
PCGS does not report the number of coins graded by the bulk submitters, only the ones slabbed, which are usually requested to be only 70's. I use the base and first strikes populations, which are available to everyone, as a proxy to try to guess what the bulk submitters may have ended up with.
The host here is very generous with their population reports - it's too bad they don't indicate those bulk submissions that are submitted for grading, yet are not graded.
There would be no value in the additional data, other than knowing that there are other coins out there that were reviewed and are not of such quality to be graded at 70.
The data suggests nearly 30% of the RP Morgans are not making 70 (with most being returned to the submitter raw). That's a high body-bag rate for a modern proof.
The RP Peace is doing much better. Perhaps approaching a 90% "70" rate.
@Goldminers said:
PCGS does not report the number of coins graded by the bulk submitters, only the ones slabbed, which are usually requested to be only 70's. I use the base and first strikes populations, which are available to everyone, as a proxy to try to guess what the bulk submitters may have ended up with.
The host here is very generous with their population reports - it's too bad they don't indicate those bulk submissions that are submitted for grading, yet are not graded.
There would be no value in the additional data, other than knowing that there are other coins out there that were reviewed and are not of such quality to be graded at 70.
The data suggests nearly 30% of the RP Morgans are not making 70 (with most being returned to the submitter raw). That's a high body-bag rate for a modern proof.
The RP Peace is doing much better. Perhaps approaching a 90% "70" rate.
These are of course estimates.
Actually, it's not. 69 is hardly a "body bag," and a 70% 70 rate is historically pretty good. 50% was more typical, but the Mint is getting better and better every year. As evidenced by the fact that the premium for 70s has been going down every year.
It gets sent back to the submitter in a body bag if it doesn't make minimums. That's all it means in this context.
For reference the 2023 Morgan proofs graded out well over 92% PR70s. Should have specified recent proofs I guess. By today's standards a 70% figure is low. That's why prices for graded 70s have gone up since the first pieces were submitted. Bulk submitters expected results in line with other recent proofs and did not get them.
Still have my 3 sets in the sealed box from the mint. Waiting to see if I think it’s worth it to send them in for grading or to open the box and put them in capital holders. On the fence at this moment.
@MsMorrisine said:
are people satisfied that the sales figures compared to the mintage limits leave room for another (last minute) batch?
Sure. It looks like a whole bunch came back.
It's inevitable that they are going to be offered up at some point, after they go through whatever inspection returns go through, based on where they are coming back from (retail, bulk, undeliverable, bad credit, etc.).
There is simply no way that so many are damaged to the point that they cannot be resold. And there is no way the Mint is going to be holding them for the 2026 Vault Sale. 😀
@RichR said:
[And there is no way the Mint is going to be holding them for the 2026 Vault Sale.]
So let's just pretend that all those coins do get melted down...crazy, I know...so would that do to the larger rarity picture?
Nothing. The mintage would be lower. So what? It's still 200,000. Having 10% less of something that everyone had already acquired does nothing to the price. You still have people sitting on multiples, so the supply overhang still exists.
@RichR said:
[And there is no way the Mint is going to be holding them for the 2026 Vault Sale.]
So let's just pretend that all those coins do get melted down...crazy, I know...so would that do to the larger rarity picture?
Nothing. The mintage would be lower. So what? It's still 200,000. Having 10% less of something that everyone had already acquired does nothing to the price. You still have people sitting on multiples, so the supply overhang still exists.
This ^^^. It's not enough to move the needle. And, it will never happen. They sell at large premiums. They don't make them just to melt down the 69s.
I got 4/5 (80%) Morgan in 70 and 2/5 (40%) Peace in 70. They alternate in the report because I am having the Morgan/Peace pairs dual-slabbed. The bottom two will be 70/70; top two 70/69; and the middle set 69/69. This time, I didn't bother with TrueViews. They just don't make a lot of sense to me in these two grades, wasn't sure how reverse proofs would image, and that's another $5/coin to lose on any retail sales. (The first 10 lines are 23-S Silver Eagles, all getting 70DCAM. I held the sealed box to send together with the reverse proofs for first strike grading.)
11 1 48176429 928519 2023-S $1 Morgan Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
12 1 48176430 928520 2023-S $1 Peace Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR69 USA
13 1 48176431 928519 2023-S $1 Morgan Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
14 1 48176432 928520 2023-S $1 Peace Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR69 USA
15 1 48176433 928519 2023-S $1 Morgan Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR69 USA
16 1 48176434 928520 2023-S $1 Peace Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR69 USA
17 1 48176435 928519 2023-S $1 Morgan Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
18 1 48176436 928520 2023-S $1 Peace Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
19 1 48176437 928519 2023-S $1 Morgan Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
20 1 48176438 928520 2023-S $1 Peace Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
@alefzero said:
The 69 vs 70 BS is just insane to me. They are all nice.
I agree; the zeal to get a 70 is strange, to me. Heck, I like all of these new Morgan and Peace coins in the OGP far more than in a slab. I know that "the market" values a 70 at more than OGP, and I know that, statistically, many/most of my copies from 2021 and this year are 70s, but I just can't seem to care about it. Maybe I'm too privileged, in that I'm in this as a hobby (to have fun), not worried about flipping to make money.
@alefzero said:
The 69 vs 70 BS is just insane to me. They are all nice.
I agree; the zeal to get a 70 is strange, to me. Heck, I like all of these new Morgan and Peace coins in the OGP far more than in a slab. I know that "the market" values a 70 at more than OGP, and I know that, statistically, many/most of my copies from 2021 and this year are 70s, but I just can't seem to care about it. Maybe I'm too privileged, in that I'm in this as a hobby (to have fun), not worried about flipping to make money.
Honestly, there are times where it is obvious why a 69 didn't make 70. But, overall, I think most collectors would struggle to see the difference. So, I'm with you, why waste money to upgrade a coin when you can't see the upgrade.
I would say the same about classic coins in lower grades to some extent. There are attractive lower grade coins that might look better than the higher grade, more expensive coin. Why not the pretty XF rather than the mundane AU?
@jmlanzaf said:
Honestly, there are times where it is obvious why a 69 didn't make 70. But, overall, I think most collectors would struggle to see the difference. So, I'm with you, why waste money to upgrade a coin when you can't see the upgrade.
Resale value and appreciation. The reality of the marketplace is that 70's seem to go up in value faster and more than 69's. Overall they are a better investment.
@jmlanzaf said:
Honestly, there are times where it is obvious why a 69 didn't make 70. But, overall, I think most collectors would struggle to see the difference. So, I'm with you, why waste money to upgrade a coin when you can't see the upgrade.
Resale value and appreciation. The reality of the marketplace is that 70's seem to go up in value faster and more than 69's. Overall they are a better investment.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. But, if it is, modern Mint 70s rarely go up at all. So, they may go down slower, but they have farther to fall.
@alefzero said:
The 69 vs 70 BS is just insane to me. They are all nice.
The reason I removed this set from OGP is that the Morgan has an imperfection on the cheek. That tiny nick in the finish is perceptible in late November at 10:47, in an east room of the house with the window shade half-drawn and when the capsule is tilted at a 23% angle or approximately 13 degrees.
That and, the set is just downright pretty in a Capital Plastics holder.
@jmlanzaf said:
Honestly, there are times where it is obvious why a 69 didn't make 70. But, overall, I think most collectors would struggle to see the difference. So, I'm with you, why waste money to upgrade a coin when you can't see the upgrade.
Resale value and appreciation. The reality of the marketplace is that 70's seem to go up in value faster and more than 69's. Overall they are a better investment.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. But, if it is, modern Mint 70s rarely go up at all. So, they may go down slower, but they have farther to fall.
They are, at best, less horrible investments.
I think that this is a useful point to make; thanks!
I think it's important to bifurcate this discussion into two forks: (i) I have a bunch of the modern Morgan and Peace coins in OGP; should I get them graded?, and (ii) I want to buy one on the secondary market, should I buy a 69, a 70, or OGP?
For me, the additional value of a 70 over a 69 isn't nearly enough (especially for the 2023 versions) to justify the time, trouble and expense of getting the ones I bought from the Mint graded. And I like the look of OGP more than I like the look of a slab.
But, were I looking to buy one on the secondary market, I probably would buy a 70, simply because they don't cost much more than a 69/OGP, and they will be easier to sell some day.
But none of these coins is, in general, a "good investment." For those of us willing and able to beat our way through the cluster-f**k that was the "process" to buy the 2021 ones directly from the Mint, those certainly appreciated in value, and have stayed high. But the Mint learned from that debacle, and now they're like most of the Mint offerings: Something you'll like if you like that sort of thing, but not something that you'll make a bunch of money on (either raw or graded).
@jmlanzaf said:
Honestly, there are times where it is obvious why a 69 didn't make 70. But, overall, I think most collectors would struggle to see the difference. So, I'm with you, why waste money to upgrade a coin when you can't see the upgrade.
Resale value and appreciation. The reality of the marketplace is that 70's seem to go up in value faster and more than 69's. Overall they are a better investment.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. But, if it is, modern Mint 70s rarely go up at all. So, they may go down slower, but they have farther to fall.
They are, at best, less horrible investments.
I think that this is a useful point to make; thanks!
I think it's important to bifurcate this discussion into two forks: (i) I have a bunch of the modern Morgan and Peace coins in OGP; should I get them graded?, and (ii) I want to buy one on the secondary market, should I buy a 69, a 70, or OGP?
For me, the additional value of a 70 over a 69 isn't nearly enough (especially for the 2023 versions) to justify the time, trouble and expense of getting the ones I bought from the Mint graded. And I like the look of OGP more than I like the look of a slab.
But, were I looking to buy one on the secondary market, I probably would buy a 70, simply because they don't cost much more than a 69/OGP, and they will be easier to sell some day.
But none of these coins is, in general, a "good investment." For those of us willing and able to beat our way through the cluster-f**k that was the "process" to buy the 2021 ones directly from the Mint, those certainly appreciated in value, and have stayed high. But the Mint learned from that debacle, and now they're like most of the Mint offerings: Something you'll like if you like that sort of thing, but not something that you'll make a bunch of money on (either raw or graded).
Even the 2021s are mostly lower than they were immediately after release. They have held up but they aren't appreciating.
If people want 70s, that's fine. People can buy what they want. But justifying the expense as an "investment" always seems to me to be a strained argument.
Got my results today. 1 out of 5 Morgan Reverse Proofs achieved MS70. 3 out of 5 Peace Reverse Proofs achieved MS70. So a 40% success rate. This will be the last time I try to buy stuff from the mint and get my own graded. It’s not financially worth it.
Comments
The RP Morgan base PCGS submissions as of Nov 30th are currently only 50% PR70's. The first strikes are 70% PR70's.
Considering this, a lot of people will be disappointed when they get their results because they could have bought graded 70's for very close to the same total cost, and now they have expensive 69's. The early bulk submissions must have had a lot of graded, but not slabbed (or counted), 69's that they had to get rid of.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Will be very interesting to see the numbers next week. I bet a lot of those 16,488 were 69's. The early 5-coin limit may have generated early sales, but many have changed their minds after looking at the coins they received and seeing sale prices decline on eBay.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Yes and no. I cannot speak to what is going on with base submissions, but I am not a bulk submitter and got a 70% 70 rate, which seems consistent with the way the bulk guys have been pricing their 70s. YMMV.
1st strike is available to everyone. That is not the number to look at to see the bulk submitters. FDOI or Advance Release are the ones only available to bulk submitters.
Here we go again. Another issue super hyped up and will not sell out.
If you have volume (100+) sets to flip you need to pre sell or get out within a few days.
Sorry—wrong quote.
We are at 189k of 250k.
I suspect several other large revisions downward in coming weeks.
Seems like the 2017 enhanced unc set debacle all over again.
Personally, I'm fine with a downward adjustment. A lot of people stayed away because they thought 250,000 was too much. If it unexpectedly comes in much lower and catches people by surprise then that can only help future value.
It the sets that are out there are in "strong hands" and aren't available on the secondary msrhet then available inventory will be low.
I agree the mint is creating a disaster with this product right now. They have refused to make these available for the last 2 weeks, and I’m curious about their reasoning. First strike deadline is fast approaching, and I think these are going to be an extremely tough sell for them now. The dealer demand has waned with no “pop” by having these unavailable for many days now. Unless 1-2 big boys come in and buy the majority of the 50,000+ available, these are going to spread widely only to collectors from direct mint sales, and value will quickly drop below issue price.
The 1 good thing that may come of this is the mint is going to be stuck with a lot of these, and they will downward revise mintage figures on these in 2024.
Coin News.Net
US Mint Sales: 105 Products Outshine with Robust Growth
By
Mike Unser -
November 29, 2023
The latest weekly sales data from the United States Mint showed a higher sales volume, with 105 products outperforming their prior weekly gains, compared to the 35 products from the previous week. This level of performance was the best seen in about two months.
The U.S. Mint’s 2023 Proof Set was one of the out-performers, and it also claimed the position of the highest weekly seller, rising by 7,766 units to a total of 344,544. It also showed respectable gains in the prior week, increasing by 5,464 units. The Mint’s second-best selling product of the week was the 2023 Silver Proof Set, which saw a rise of 2,727 units, reaching a total of 176,648, compared to a gain of 1,827 units in the prior week.
Several Products Also Retreat in Sales
Conversely, 11 Mint products experienced a decline in weekly sales, compared to the 8 in the prior report. Among these eleven products, seven showed reductions of at least several hundred.
Leading them all was the 2023-S Morgan and Peace Silver Dollar Reverse Proof Set, which saw its sales retreat for a second consecutive week following its launch on Nov. 9. The set experienced a hefty decline of 16,488 units, dropping to 189,689 after falling by 14,195 units the previous week.
Lots more stats at Coin News.Net
How is that possible when this set is on "Remind Me" status?
They have to inspect them before they can resell them. There's always a lag.
I KNOW. What I'm saying is that I was not able to exclude 69s, and I got 70% 70s, not 50%. I understand mine is a small sample size, but still.
I wasn't arguing with you. I was making the point to @goldminers
At this point I don't give a flying flip about these. Had subscriptions for 35 and dropped that down to two. And the two sets I received were absolutely stunning and I am happy to have them. I am so glad I don't have to worry about trying to flip any of these. The mintage is just to high.
Sorry for the misunderstanding, but you quoted my post in yours, so I thought you were making the point to me!
BST references available on request
Sorry. I quoted the whole thread. I deleted your name at the bottom but it was apparently also at the top.
Has anyone used this holder to house any of the new Morgan and Peace dollars?
Capital says it won't fit ASE coins but I think the Morgan & Peace coins should fit...as they're a bit smaller.
I also know. LOL.
PCGS does not report the number of coins graded by the bulk submitters, only the ones slabbed, which are usually requested to be only 70's. I use the base and first strikes populations, which are available to everyone, as a proxy to try to guess what the bulk submitters may have ended up with. Overall, my point is the Morgan's have more problems than the Peace and based on the more than 30,000 reductions in sales reports the past two weeks, it does not look like the market really wanted to keep 250,000 of these.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Appears to be a Galaxy GX52A for "U.S. silver dollars". The single Capital holders for "silver dollars" are for 38.1 mm coins. So, it looks like it might be compatible. Reference
To be positive, you could always confirm with Capital Plastics.
PH: 440.632.5800
e-mail: collector@capitalplastics.com
Edited to Add:
I was thinking about doing something like this myself. As such, your post prompted me to ask Capital about this specific holder.
The rep I spoke with said that the opening on their Galaxy GX52A was designed for a coin with a 1.5 inch diameter.
The host here is very generous with their population reports - it's too bad they don't indicate those bulk submissions that are submitted for grading, yet are not graded.
There would be no value in the additional data, other than knowing that there are other coins out there that were reviewed and are not of such quality to be graded at 70.
BST references available on request
MetroD...
Thanks for doing the legwork re the holder...1.5 inches...that should do the trick!!!
I'll probably get 2 holders...one for all the 2021 coins and a second for all the 2023 coins...and maybe they'll also develop some color over the decades!!!
I still have sealed boxes listed on BST. NOT MUCH INTERST TO DATW. If they don't sell soon, I will inbox them and pur them I the safe. My 2nd option is sending the RP and the other 4 issues to NGC. These are nice looking dollars and just putting them in the safe is OK too.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
They do not like to advertise the existence of these other programs.
The data suggests nearly 30% of the RP Morgans are not making 70 (with most being returned to the submitter raw). That's a high body-bag rate for a modern proof.
The RP Peace is doing much better. Perhaps approaching a 90% "70" rate.
These are of course estimates.
Actually, it's not. 69 is hardly a "body bag," and a 70% 70 rate is historically pretty good. 50% was more typical, but the Mint is getting better and better every year. As evidenced by the fact that the premium for 70s has been going down every year.
It gets sent back to the submitter in a body bag if it doesn't make minimums. That's all it means in this context.
For reference the 2023 Morgan proofs graded out well over 92% PR70s. Should have specified recent proofs I guess. By today's standards a 70% figure is low. That's why prices for graded 70s have gone up since the first pieces were submitted. Bulk submitters expected results in line with other recent proofs and did not get them.
Still have my 3 sets in the sealed box from the mint. Waiting to see if I think it’s worth it to send them in for grading or to open the box and put them in capital holders. On the fence at this moment.
75.5% PR70 First Strike, was 65.5% on November 28.
We got our first two 68's and also three 67's....ouch!
91.4% PR70 First Strike, was 91.2% on November 28.
Got one 68
are people satisfied that the sales figures compared to the mintage limits leave room for another (last minute) batch?
Sure. It looks like a whole bunch came back.
It's inevitable that they are going to be offered up at some point, after they go through whatever inspection returns go through, based on where they are coming back from (retail, bulk, undeliverable, bad credit, etc.).
There is simply no way that so many are damaged to the point that they cannot be resold. And there is no way the Mint is going to be holding them for the 2026 Vault Sale. 😀
[And there is no way the Mint is going to be holding them for the 2026 Vault Sale.]
So let's just pretend that all those coins do get melted down...crazy, I know...so would that do to the larger rarity picture?
w/e 12/03/2023 mint sales report...
2023 MORGAN AND PEACE SILVER REVERSE PROOF 2-COIN SET (S) 201,429 +11,740
Nothing. The mintage would be lower. So what? It's still 200,000. Having 10% less of something that everyone had already acquired does nothing to the price. You still have people sitting on multiples, so the supply overhang still exists.
This ^^^. It's not enough to move the needle. And, it will never happen. They sell at large premiums. They don't make them just to melt down the 69s.
The 69 vs 70 BS is just insane to me. They are all nice.
My grades just posted. Sent in 3 pairs. 50% PR70:
Will post TV's when they populate tonight.
I got 4/5 (80%) Morgan in 70 and 2/5 (40%) Peace in 70. They alternate in the report because I am having the Morgan/Peace pairs dual-slabbed. The bottom two will be 70/70; top two 70/69; and the middle set 69/69. This time, I didn't bother with TrueViews. They just don't make a lot of sense to me in these two grades, wasn't sure how reverse proofs would image, and that's another $5/coin to lose on any retail sales. (The first 10 lines are 23-S Silver Eagles, all getting 70DCAM. I held the sealed box to send together with the reverse proofs for first strike grading.)
11 1 48176429 928519 2023-S $1 Morgan Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
12 1 48176430 928520 2023-S $1 Peace Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR69 USA
13 1 48176431 928519 2023-S $1 Morgan Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
14 1 48176432 928520 2023-S $1 Peace Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR69 USA
15 1 48176433 928519 2023-S $1 Morgan Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR69 USA
16 1 48176434 928520 2023-S $1 Peace Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR69 USA
17 1 48176435 928519 2023-S $1 Morgan Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
18 1 48176436 928520 2023-S $1 Peace Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
19 1 48176437 928519 2023-S $1 Morgan Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
20 1 48176438 928520 2023-S $1 Peace Dollar Rev PR Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set First Strike PR70 USA
I agree; the zeal to get a 70 is strange, to me. Heck, I like all of these new Morgan and Peace coins in the OGP far more than in a slab. I know that "the market" values a 70 at more than OGP, and I know that, statistically, many/most of my copies from 2021 and this year are 70s, but I just can't seem to care about it. Maybe I'm too privileged, in that I'm in this as a hobby (to have fun), not worried about flipping to make money.
Honestly, there are times where it is obvious why a 69 didn't make 70. But, overall, I think most collectors would struggle to see the difference. So, I'm with you, why waste money to upgrade a coin when you can't see the upgrade.
I would say the same about classic coins in lower grades to some extent. There are attractive lower grade coins that might look better than the higher grade, more expensive coin. Why not the pretty XF rather than the mundane AU?
Resale value and appreciation. The reality of the marketplace is that 70's seem to go up in value faster and more than 69's. Overall they are a better investment.
PR69: Maybe due to the obverse rim?
PR70:
PR69:
PR70:
PR69: Maybe due to milky appearance at 6:00 on reverse?
Pr70:
@ProofCollection
Still Fine looking Beauties to me!
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. But, if it is, modern Mint 70s rarely go up at all. So, they may go down slower, but they have farther to fall.
They are, at best, less horrible investments.
The reason I removed this set from OGP is that the Morgan has an imperfection on the cheek. That tiny nick in the finish is perceptible in late November at 10:47, in an east room of the house with the window shade half-drawn and when the capsule is tilted at a 23% angle or approximately 13 degrees.
That and, the set is just downright pretty in a Capital Plastics holder.
On the contrary, Google is not your friend.
I like how the reverse proofs actually look like an x-ray when photographed!
I think that this is a useful point to make; thanks!
I think it's important to bifurcate this discussion into two forks: (i) I have a bunch of the modern Morgan and Peace coins in OGP; should I get them graded?, and (ii) I want to buy one on the secondary market, should I buy a 69, a 70, or OGP?
For me, the additional value of a 70 over a 69 isn't nearly enough (especially for the 2023 versions) to justify the time, trouble and expense of getting the ones I bought from the Mint graded. And I like the look of OGP more than I like the look of a slab.
But, were I looking to buy one on the secondary market, I probably would buy a 70, simply because they don't cost much more than a 69/OGP, and they will be easier to sell some day.
But none of these coins is, in general, a "good investment." For those of us willing and able to beat our way through the cluster-f**k that was the "process" to buy the 2021 ones directly from the Mint, those certainly appreciated in value, and have stayed high. But the Mint learned from that debacle, and now they're like most of the Mint offerings: Something you'll like if you like that sort of thing, but not something that you'll make a bunch of money on (either raw or graded).
Even the 2021s are mostly lower than they were immediately after release. They have held up but they aren't appreciating.
If people want 70s, that's fine. People can buy what they want. But justifying the expense as an "investment" always seems to me to be a strained argument.
Got my results today. 1 out of 5 Morgan Reverse Proofs achieved MS70. 3 out of 5 Peace Reverse Proofs achieved MS70. So a 40% success rate. This will be the last time I try to buy stuff from the mint and get my own graded. It’s not financially worth it.