@ColonelKlinck said:
A risky wager, indeed but not for the owners of the unopened boxes!
Totally agree. I'm just questioning the conclusion that the market would actually go there, based on nothing other than the absence of a coin reveal. There will be no central repository tracking how many boxes have been opened, or where all the coins are.
So anyone making an assumption that 50-100 boxes are unopened, versus exactly how many are listed for sale on eBay at any given point in time, would be based on nothing other than mere speculation. Same with assuming any given coin has been undiscovered, just because it has not been publicly revealed.
Don't get me wrong, I constantly underestimate the stupidity of people, so anything is possible. I thought these were bad deals at $595, yet a few people had to have them at $1199.
It would make no sense to bid up unopened boxes on speculation that any specific coin is available to be found, without any evidence that is the case, other than the fact that a find has not been announced publicly. Doesn't mean it couldn't happen. Just that it would make no sense.
@AlanSki said:
This reminds me of those high end baseball and basketball card boxes where you pay thousands for 3 cards. One or two might get lucky but the majority all lose.
That's EXACTLY what this is supposed to be, with the twist that the losers are still all worth a few hundred dollars.
@VanHalen said:
This one opens lower than the buyback offer after fees. Any guesses as to how high it will go? Be interesting to see if goes over $100.
I bid on it already. It may not go over 100. But it's going to have to get close or I'm going to snag it.
@VanHalen said:
This one opens lower than the buyback offer after fees. Any guesses as to how high it will go? Be interesting to see if goes over $100.
I bid on it already. It may not go over 100. But it's going to have to get close or I'm going to snag it.
@VanHalen said:
This one opens lower than the buyback offer after fees. Any guesses as to how high it will go? Be interesting to see if goes over $100.
I bid on it already. It may not go over 100. But it's going to have to get close or I'm going to snag it.
Milk spots?
Yep looks like a second example with milk spots (along with the earlier shown proof). With so few coins (2400 total) it would have been nice to pre screen for anything milk spotted.
I guess it could have been in a roll for many years and taking it out of that environment to transfer into a slab caused the spots-still it is another bad look since milk spotted eagles tend to lose most of their premium above bullion.
@VanHalen said:
This one opens lower than the buyback offer after fees. Any guesses as to how high it will go? Be interesting to see if goes over $100.
I bid on it already. It may not go over 100. But it's going to have to get close or I'm going to snag it.
Milk spots?
Yep looks like a second example with milk spots (along with the earlier shown proof). With so few coins (2400 total) it would have been nice to pre screen for anything milk spotted.
I guess it could have been in a roll for many years and taking it out of that environment to transfer into a slab caused the spots-still it is another bad look since milk spotted eagles tend to lose most of their premium above bullion.
Or, since they are primarily marketing to non-collectors, they used this to flush out, at a premium, coins they could never sell to actual collectors, and there is nothing accidental about it. Coins HSN would have to take back under a 30 day satisfaction guarantee.
Most people receiving them probably won't notice or care, any more than they would care about imperfections in common sports cards. Again, not a fan, but how is it a bad look if the customers have no idea what they are looking at?
They are scanning QR codes looking for winners, not studying coins under a loupe looking for imperfections. If you don't know what a milk spot is, small spots on shiny coins won't mean anything to you.
Haven't you seen the unboxing videos? It's a bad look to us, but we are not their target market. Their target market is impressed with a shiny near perfect very common coin, as though the vast majority of the millions made that aren't perfect aren't near perfect.
@VanHalen said:
This one opens lower than the buyback offer after fees. Any guesses as to how high it will go? Be interesting to see if goes over $100.
I bid on it already. It may not go over 100. But it's going to have to get close or I'm going to snag it.
Milk spots?
Yep looks like a second example with milk spots (along with the earlier shown proof). With so few coins (2400 total) it would have been nice to pre screen for anything milk spotted.
I guess it could have been in a roll for many years and taking it out of that environment to transfer into a slab caused the spots-still it is another bad look since milk spotted eagles tend to lose most of their premium above bullion.
Or, since they are primarily marketing to non-collectors, they used this to flush out, at a premium, coins they could never sell to actual collectors, and there is nothing accidental about it. Coins HSN would have to take back under a 30 day satisfaction guarantee.
Most people receiving them probably won't notice or care, any more than they would care about imperfections in common sports cards. Again, not a fan, but how is it a bad look if the customers have no idea what they are looking at?
They are scanning QR codes looking for winners, not studying coins under a loupe looking for imperfections. If you don't know what a milk spot is, small spots on shiny coins won't mean anything to you.
Haven't you seen the unboxing videos? It's a bad look to us, but we are not their target market. Their target market is impressed with a shiny near perfect very common coin, as though the vast majority of the millions made that aren't perfect aren't near perfect.
You might be right about a segment of people not noticing.
I don’t collect cards but wouldn’t a spot or smudge on a card be considered a negative? I would think at least some card collectors would notice the spots on the coins.
@ColonelKlinck said:
Here's a scenario. Imagine 50 to 100 VB Buyers leave their boxes unopened and by chance, the "crown jewel" just happens to be among one of the sealed boxes. I wager the initial price of the box would pale in comparison to the market value until such a time the "Gem" is revealed.
I heard the “rare” big one has already been found.
@ricko said:
Lottery tickets are cheaper and about the same odds of winning something... Cheers, RickO
Sorry to disagree, my friend.
With losing lottery tickets. You toss them in the trash...
My main point I forgot to address in my op.
I doubt if anyone would toss the 3 coins into the trash.
Lottery tickets also offer the potential for far greater winnings. And that’s a significant part of the equation.
Whether any individual wants to buy VB or lottery tickets is a choice. But calling the sellers of such items scammers and the consumers of such vehicles morons seems unreasonable.
@ricko said:
Lottery tickets are cheaper and about the same odds of winning something... Cheers, RickO
Sorry to disagree, my friend.
With losing lottery tickets. You toss them in the trash...
My main point I forgot to address in my op.
I doubt if anyone would toss the 3 coins into the trash.
Lottery tickets also offer the potential for far greater winnings. And that’s a significant part of the equation.
Whether any individual wants to buy VB or lottery tickets is a choice. But calling the sellers of such items scammers and the consumers of such vehicles morons seems unreasonable.
I agree, though I don’t know why you chose to say that in reply to my post, which had nothing to do with any such assertions.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@ricko said:
Lottery tickets are cheaper and about the same odds of winning something... Cheers, RickO
Sorry to disagree, my friend.
With losing lottery tickets. You toss them in the trash...
My main point I forgot to address in my op.
I doubt if anyone would toss the 3 coins into the trash.
Lottery tickets also offer the potential for far greater winnings. And that’s a significant part of the equation.
Whether any individual wants to buy VB or lottery tickets is a choice. But calling the sellers of such items scammers and the consumers of such vehicles morons seems unreasonable.
I agree, though I don’t know why you chose to say that in reply to my post, which had nothing to do with any such assertions.
@ColonelKlinck said:
Here's a scenario. Imagine 50 to 100 VB Buyers leave their boxes unopened and by chance, the "crown jewel" just happens to be among one of the sealed boxes. I wager the initial price of the box would pale in comparison to the market value until such a time the "Gem" is revealed.
I heard the “rare” big one has already been found.
What is Bayesian Statistics?
Bayesian statistics is a particular approach to applying probability to statistical problems. It provides us with mathematical tools to update our beliefs about random events in light of seeing new data or evidence about those events.
The total value of the 799 boxes is now 4% lower. The Mean value of the 3-coin box drops from $579 to $556. And the expected loss between the purchase price and street value is more than doubled, from $16 to $39.
-----Burton ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
@VanHalen said:
This one opens lower than the buyback offer after fees. Any guesses as to how high it will go? Be interesting to see if goes over $100.
I bid on it already. It may not go over 100. But it's going to have to get close or I'm going to snag it.
Milk spots?
Yep looks like a second example with milk spots (along with the earlier shown proof). With so few coins (2400 total) it would have been nice to pre screen for anything milk spotted.
I guess it could have been in a roll for many years and taking it out of that environment to transfer into a slab caused the spots-still it is another bad look since milk spotted eagles tend to lose most of their premium above bullion.
Or, since they are primarily marketing to non-collectors, they used this to flush out, at a premium, coins they could never sell to actual collectors, and there is nothing accidental about it. Coins HSN would have to take back under a 30 day satisfaction guarantee.
Most people receiving them probably won't notice or care, any more than they would care about imperfections in common sports cards. Again, not a fan, but how is it a bad look if the customers have no idea what they are looking at?
They are scanning QR codes looking for winners, not studying coins under a loupe looking for imperfections. If you don't know what a milk spot is, small spots on shiny coins won't mean anything to you.
Haven't you seen the unboxing videos? It's a bad look to us, but we are not their target market. Their target market is impressed with a shiny near perfect very common coin, as though the vast majority of the millions made that aren't perfect aren't near perfect.
You might be right about a segment of people not noticing.
I don’t collect cards but wouldn’t a spot or smudge on a card be considered a negative? I would think at least some card collectors would notice the spots on the coins.
Maybe, but they are not in this to build a collection of 9.9 bullion. If they notice the spots and are bothered by them, they can always accept the Instant Offers, since I'm sure the QR codes don't reflect spotting.
While they claim to be trying to recruit the next generation of collectors, they are really marketing to gamblers. And gamblers aren't going to care about spots on coins. This is a way to sell common coins at a premium. Spotted or not. It's just that, given who they are selling to, they surely felt there was not reason to go to the time or expense of screening out anything that would straight grade at NGCX.
@BryceM said:
In a big and meandering and mostly useless thread…..
I’ll just say this:
The guys selling this stuff are geniuses.
That remains to be seen. They certainly created a buzz for the first release. More than a few fanboys here speculated that they would create a lot of value, and go to an effort to equalize the value of the losing boxes, to keep people coming back for more.
That does not appear to have happened, and there are legitimate questions regarding the equity of the distribution of the boxes, both in terms of a large portion going out the back door early to a marketing partner and in terms of where high value coins are turning up.
They are geniuses if they actually built a new way to sell coins. If this fizzles out after the novelty wears off, not so much.
The con appears to be that you are dropping $600 for $200 worth of coin. I guess there's the 2 minute thrill of opening the box but much more exciting things out there to blow $400 on. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Exciting and innovative are not the adjectives I had in mind. Did we skip February and March to land on April 1st?
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
Comments
Totally agree. I'm just questioning the conclusion that the market would actually go there, based on nothing other than the absence of a coin reveal. There will be no central repository tracking how many boxes have been opened, or where all the coins are.
So anyone making an assumption that 50-100 boxes are unopened, versus exactly how many are listed for sale on eBay at any given point in time, would be based on nothing other than mere speculation. Same with assuming any given coin has been undiscovered, just because it has not been publicly revealed.
Don't get me wrong, I constantly underestimate the stupidity of people, so anything is possible. I thought these were bad deals at $595, yet a few people had to have them at $1199.
It would make no sense to bid up unopened boxes on speculation that any specific coin is available to be found, without any evidence that is the case, other than the fact that a find has not been announced publicly. Doesn't mean it couldn't happen. Just that it would make no sense.
That's EXACTLY what this is supposed to be, with the twist that the losers are still all worth a few hundred dollars.
This one opens lower than the buyback offer after fees. Any guesses as to how high it will go? Be interesting to see if goes over $100.
ebay.com/itm/155382545146
I bid on it already. It may not go over 100. But it's going to have to get close or I'm going to snag it.
.> @jmlanzaf said:
Milk spots?
Yep looks like a second example with milk spots (along with the earlier shown proof). With so few coins (2400 total) it would have been nice to pre screen for anything milk spotted.
I guess it could have been in a roll for many years and taking it out of that environment to transfer into a slab caused the spots-still it is another bad look since milk spotted eagles tend to lose most of their premium above bullion.
Or, since they are primarily marketing to non-collectors, they used this to flush out, at a premium, coins they could never sell to actual collectors, and there is nothing accidental about it. Coins HSN would have to take back under a 30 day satisfaction guarantee.
Most people receiving them probably won't notice or care, any more than they would care about imperfections in common sports cards. Again, not a fan, but how is it a bad look if the customers have no idea what they are looking at?
They are scanning QR codes looking for winners, not studying coins under a loupe looking for imperfections. If you don't know what a milk spot is, small spots on shiny coins won't mean anything to you.
Haven't you seen the unboxing videos? It's a bad look to us, but we are not their target market. Their target market is impressed with a shiny near perfect very common coin, as though the vast majority of the millions made that aren't perfect aren't near perfect.
You might be right about a segment of people not noticing.
I don’t collect cards but wouldn’t a spot or smudge on a card be considered a negative? I would think at least some card collectors would notice the spots on the coins.
I heard the “rare” big one has already been found.
The problem is you can only ignore **5*** people on this board.
So many idiots, so few comets.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
You can ignore someone without officially putting them on "ignore".
In a big and meandering and mostly useless thread…..
I’ll just say this:
The guys selling this stuff are geniuses.
I assume you are speaking ironically much like Laura’s use of the “chat room genius” label. 🤣
Exactly! 😎
Lottery tickets also offer the potential for far greater winnings. And that’s a significant part of the equation.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Whether any individual wants to buy VB or lottery tickets is a choice. But calling the sellers of such items scammers and the consumers of such vehicles morons seems unreasonable.
I agree, though I don’t know why you chose to say that in reply to my post, which had nothing to do with any such assertions.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
It was the last of the lottery chain
Reference?
OOoooh another "failed maths class" opportunity. Bayesian Statistics!
https://www.quantstart.com/articles/Bayesian-Statistics-A-Beginners-Guide/
Or just regular old maths...
Go back to David's original spreadsheet (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bRhNlifrA5i6MOeW0XPd1L4iMj96YKPT/view) and assume ONLY that one box has been found and the other two coins packaged with it were average.
What is NOW the expected value of each VaultBox?
The total value of the 799 boxes is now 4% lower. The Mean value of the 3-coin box drops from $579 to $556. And the expected loss between the purchase price and street value is more than doubled, from $16 to $39.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
I like to buy coins I can see, so I'll pass on these boxes..
Wasn't it P.T. Barnum that said, "There's a Bayesian Statistician born every minute."?
Not for me. I like buy it right sight seen.
Maybe, but they are not in this to build a collection of 9.9 bullion. If they notice the spots and are bothered by them, they can always accept the Instant Offers, since I'm sure the QR codes don't reflect spotting.
While they claim to be trying to recruit the next generation of collectors, they are really marketing to gamblers. And gamblers aren't going to care about spots on coins. This is a way to sell common coins at a premium. Spotted or not. It's just that, given who they are selling to, they surely felt there was not reason to go to the time or expense of screening out anything that would straight grade at NGCX.
That remains to be seen. They certainly created a buzz for the first release. More than a few fanboys here speculated that they would create a lot of value, and go to an effort to equalize the value of the losing boxes, to keep people coming back for more.
That does not appear to have happened, and there are legitimate questions regarding the equity of the distribution of the boxes, both in terms of a large portion going out the back door early to a marketing partner and in terms of where high value coins are turning up.
They are geniuses if they actually built a new way to sell coins. If this fizzles out after the novelty wears off, not so much.
I took it literally, based on the buzz, the quick sell out, and the premiums being realized on eBay.
Its a new fad - reminds me of roll sellers where…. It capitalizes on people looking for super deal.
There is no Santa in numismatics.
The con appears to be that you are dropping $600 for $200 worth of coin. I guess there's the 2 minute thrill of opening the box but much more exciting things out there to blow $400 on. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Looks like the only thing this mystery is missing is a corpse. The Bergstrom family operates kearneycc, so says their website.
BST: endeavor1967, synchr, kliao, Outhaul, Donttellthewife, U1Chicago, ajaan, mCarney1173, SurfinHi, MWallace, Sandman70gt, mustanggt, Pittstate03, Lazybones, Walkerguy21D, coinandcurrency242 , thebigeng, Collectorcoins, JimTyler, USMarine6, Elkevvo, Coll3ctor, Yorkshireman, CUKevin, ranshdow, CoinHunter4, bennybravo, Centsearcher, braddick, Windycity, ZoidMeister, mirabela, JJM, RichURich, Bullsitter, jmski52, LukeMarshall, coinsarefun, MichaelDixon, NickPatton, ProfLiz, Twobitcollector,Jesbroken oih82w8, DCW
Exciting and innovative are not the adjectives I had in mind. Did we skip February and March to land on April 1st?
The whole concept is not about coins, it is about winning.
Coins are just a vehicle for the "win" or most likely the loss.
There is an old saying supposedly from the era of Mississippi River Boats:
"If you look around the table and don't see who is the mark, it's you"
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
A reminder:
Posts must not contain libelous (accusatory, attacking) remarks concerning any individual, company, or other entity.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1009079/pcgs-forum-rules-and-guidelines-updated-4-19-2021