Pro and Con Opinions of buying a VaultBox
WQuarterFreddie
Posts: 2,870 ✭✭✭✭✭
Have at it!
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WQuarterFreddie
Posts: 2,870 ✭✭✭✭✭
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Hey, it's a start! Thank you!😂🤣
I thought this might tide you all over until actual forum members started posting their own results
Imagine you are a regular dude who just coughed up $1200 bucks for 6 ase.... ouch!
WOW!!!!! EXACTLY as I predicted. On not one, but two boxes.
I got all the vicarious thrill I needed just from watching this. I just hope anyone who was sitting on the fence considered what I had to say, and didn't try to order. I'm sorry, but I don't see the fun here. The only thing worse than paying $600 for those boxes would have been paying $1,000 or $1,200 for them on eBay. I wonder whether this will cool the secondary market for unopened boxes?
This is what is going to be flooding the internet over the next week or so, with a few winners sprinkled in. Marking up the Instant Offers in your head by 50% doesn't mean that's what you got, unless you'd have gone out and bought those coins for those inflated prices, or unless you can get that for them on eBay (you can't).
I just hope regular people get the winners, and those pre-release unboxing videos do not represent where the winners are going to end up.
Thank you! What a great video! This was so much fun to watch.
I think it sums up perfectly what the average box will reveal and the feelings that new collectors will feel.😎🤣😂
A better box ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVpyoLUsYBw
Yeah. This one supposedly wasn't real, but who knows? It was, however, posted before the on sale date.
I found two things interesting in the video.
1) The guy seemed to be fairly upbeat after getting two losing boxes
2) The one coin I watched them scan, a 2006 PF 10 Silver Eagle, had an instant offer of $130. That is fairly strong since 2006 NGC PF 70s sell for $70-$100 on eBay. The eBay value of the first box might have been around $200; Vault Box seems to pay above that (if the other coins also have instant offers that are proportional to the 2006 PF 10). So despite losing overall, we at least have an idea that Vault Box isn't taking a cut on both the buy and sell side with lowballs on their instant offers (which you mentioned could be a possibility).
That one is different than the PWCC Marketplace "promo" video but it also appears to be fake. Same error too-the same two commons (9.9 2013 and 2014 bullion Eagles) plus one rare 2012 10 Gold (other video had a 2006 10 Gold). This video has comments turned off, which is another sign that there were potentially people calling him out and he decided to hide those.
OK, I guess this strongly suggests the boxes were completely random - 1 random coin from each of the 3 groups per box. NGC retail for those 2 boxes were $320 and $380. These values should happen 31% of the time if these are purely random. Really unfortunate for him that both were this. By buying 2, he doubled his chances of hitting one box with retail above price paid..................
I honestly expected them to try to get the values of each box higher by a little bit of non-random packing so folks don't get hosed like this. Wow.
I dunno. The minimum value of the boxes was supposed to be at least $255, which is a huge haircut as it is, so I'd be surprised that it would actually be less.
And then, I'd be surprised if they were offering above reasonable wholesale, since they said in a pre-release interview video that they were offering convenience, not necessarily the best buy back prices. I could see them going above market for the red cores in order to create a buzz, but not on 2,000+ common coins.
Just no real way to know until we have more data points. The biggest joke was when he said $130 offer equals $200 retail, which led him to believe he was sitting on a $500 retail box for 3 coins he never even saw before, and had no organic interest in.
If people like this, then VaultBox is on to something, and they will make a ton of money and probably attract a bunch of copycats. I'm just happy that there will be real videos out in the wild to counteract the over the top hype they created, and people will have an opportunity to see with their own eyes what they likely did not take the time to discover in the disclosures, which will lead to informed buying decisions.
If I am correct, there won't be a market for these at 100% markups on eBay, and the website won't freeze at the next release, even if they end up with a successful franchise.
Lmao...
https://www.the4thcoin.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/thefourthcoin
I tried to tell anyone who would listen. They fully disclosed what they were doing, and the simplest reading of what people disclose is usually the correct interpretation. No one is getting all of the lowest value coins because no box is going to contain 3 Common coins. Period.
Also, NGC retail is fiction. Those boxes are each worth in the low to mid $200s, even lower than I would have thought, because the values they assigned are even more inflated than I would have thought. If they are, in fact, buying back strong in order to build inventory and save a few bucks on grading fees for future series, maybe that's a way for disappointed gamblers to salvage something from it.
Double lmao... Poor saps.
https://www.the4thcoin.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/thefourthcoin
After watching both videos it is apparent to me that this concept mimics the sports card hobby boxes and is catered to those collectors right down to the grading scale.
I love the concept and those type of collectors are used to the gambling aspect and the thrill of opening a hot box that contains an item or items that are worth big bucks.
More importantly, they are used to opening boxes that do not contain items worth more than the cost of the box so they will keep buying even if they get a dud box.
This is going to be huge and instant sell outs moving forward short term until VaultBox makes the mistake of overproducing a series due to greed.
I predict they will expand to smaller boxes to lower the price point to $200 for a box containing 1 coin....😎
The retail value is higher than the 255 but the market value of that box is closer to 155. So I am surprised that the vault box offer is $130 on the one coin that would normally see offers of 50-70 from most coin dealers.
And yes if enough people are able to convince themselves like this guy that the boxes were worth it, vault box won’t have an issue selling more.
Yeah, having rewatched the PWCC Marketplace and Finest Known videos, I tend to agree with @U1chicago and @NJCoin. They're bogus. I have to question how YouTubers were able to obtain salted VaultBoxes pre-release, and I'm calling shenanigans on VaultBox!
Sounds like it's about time.
Why did a new thread get started to have the same arguments?
It's a different way to have the same argument. And best of all, still $595 cheaper than buying a Vault Box!
For starters, now that the first video has hit, no one is arguing! It feels like most of the points that were being debated have been resolved, which only leaves the core issue of whether or not this is worth it. Which truly is in the eye of the beholder, now that everyone can see exactly what this is. At least for the vast majority of people.
Before, all we had was a few videos showing gold coins being pulled, interviews talking about how low the margins were, and speculation over how the promoters were going to bend over backwards to create good value for all in order to build demand for future series. Mega hype led to mega demand for a very limited issue. Which led to an instant sell out, FOMO, and stupid premiums for a few boxes on eBay.
Now reality has set in. There will be very few big winners, a few more small winners and people breaking even, and the vast majority of buyers losing a few hundred dollars each buying mostly slabbed silver bullion most people in our community have no interest in, since that's a market that was developed by the telemarketers.
Now that the speculation is over and everyone understands the game, people will make informed decisions whether or not to participate, and there really is nothing more to argue about.
Exactly. I was hoping we could get past the debate and move on to seeing the results of Series 1.
Hopefully we will get posts when buyers get their boxes starting tomorrow.🤞
Except that no one is grading cards 9.9. I'm not sure what others do, but PSA goes straight from 9 to 10 in much the same way as we don't have a 69+ grade.
I'd say a rough equivalent to MS in cards would be 7, 7.5, 8, 8.5, 9, and 10, except it is easy for a card untouched by human hands to be a 6 or a 6.5. Also, cards don't really "circulate".
Here is an interesting post that someone shared on Facebook (I don't know the seller; I just saw someone else repost this on Instagram).
.> @daltex said:
I don't collect cards so I have no clue about the grading scale. To your point proof coins don't really circulate either but the older cards and coins did so there is that similarity.
In my opinion, this new product will attract more sports card collectors than existing coin collectors and that was the point I was trying to convey.😎
WTF? How can the seller guarantee gold in the box unless he opened them already?🤔
He really can't unless he has a way to detect the gold inside. Or he just knows that even if it's a 1/10th oz, it's still gold and he still doubles his money. If not get takes the box back. Other than that no idea.
https://www.the4thcoin.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/thefourthcoin
One of the potentially sketchy things that always concerned me about these. If the seller has a sensitive enough scale, then they could know that the 3rd coin in the box weighs 1/10 ounce without opening the box.
A few of them would be platinum, but the vast majority would be gold. Nice score for the seller -- $1200 for two ASEs and a 1/10 ounce gold coin.
Likely to rope people in, since there is a guarantee, people are thinking about 1 ounce of gold, not 1/10 ounce, and some paid $1200 on eBay with no guarantee at all.
We yet don’t know who gets to say I told you so with certainty. More to come.
I plan on weighing my box before opening just to get a data point.
I'll definitely be disappointed if I open a box like in the video above. Although if I do, I just plan to tell myself that I overpaid for some coins, which definitely happens all the time without a loot box involved. Doesn't make me any less dumb, but will feel better than selling and having nothing to show for my choice other than losing $400.
I am not sure videos like these will reduce interest though. What this video tells my gambler side is that two low value boxes are accounted for, which increases my chance of getting a higher value box.
No one should feel dumb for buying a box.
It looks like fun!😎
NGC did the grading and the random selection from the three pools.
Minshull Trading sets the offer price. Might it initially be a little higher than actual wholesale and then drift lower as the hype for wave 1 subsides? Why that might be just smart marketing. Might they recycle what they buy back into wave 2? Somebody should start a cert# list.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
Lottery tickets are cheaper and about the same odds of winning something... Cheers, RickO
Sorry to disagree, my friend.
With losing lottery tickets. You toss them in the trash...
My main point I forgot to address in my op.
I doubt if anyone would toss the 3 coins into the trash.
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.Why wouldn't they offer more then normal value to buy back? They are making enough on the sale of the initial box, and so few people are going to take them up on the offer, that it's probably worth it to them to overinflate the buyback price to make you feel better about what you got
Id be much happier throwing a $1 losing lottery ticket in the trash than spending $595 and getting the coins that were shown in the youtube video.
@joeykoins... That is true, but I have lost only a dollar, not several hundred dollars. And, I have won several hundred dollars on a lottery ticket... five times. Cheers, RickO
Is that the $1500 box?
If you guys really want to gamble, crack all your slabs and send the coins to PCGS. That would be a fun unboxing video.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
To me, the interesting part is that they said “the 1st round we’re gonna be working of SLIM margins and the next 2 rounds will be more profit built in”
Seriously? These are “slim” margins? What can a wholesaler acquire graded silver eagles for, $30-$60 max depending on year? What does it cost them to cross to NGCX with a bulk deal, $15-20? I bet you could buy all 6 of those coins at retail on a $350 budget, instead this poor guy spent $1200. Then he manages to conceal his disappointment and turn his video into a sponsored ad for vaultbox by saying how cool and fun it is while his buddies are dying laughing because he got the worst possible outcome (or is it?)
I’m a little intrigued by the $130 offer but we’ll need to see how that plays out. I imagine they need to try to create a market for these NGCx/vaultbox slabs in order to keep this project selling. If my box has coins like that I’d probably take their offer immediately and not even try to sell them on eBay, does their offer have an expiration?
Regardless, there’s definitely more to come and we’ll have to compare the results of others. I guess I’m not the target demographic here. Speaking for myself only, I don’t see how opening a box and losing $300 is “fun”. Especially if one isn’t as fortunate as some of us to have disposable income like that.
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But you throw away dollars not hundreds of dollars!
I would rather have this box than the box dude in the video opened.
The generous buy back offer is worth it for Valulbox.... to create the impression that it is a ready market, to help promote the next round. ALSO... the returned coin will be included in the next round..... saving ValutBox some money for less grading fees. The returns WILL be recycled!
If you are having fun with this game... and have the money to spare to toss into it.... then have your fun!
But just like any form of gambling, the odds are for the house.
I get it, RickO.
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line."It's not if you win or lose but HOW you play the game."
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.I’m impressed by the offer I will admit that. That’s a $60 coin. They could likely produce another one of those for $80 including slab fees, but they’ll buy it back for $130 like you said to make the market, even if they take a loss on that buyback they still made $70 off of it and will likely make $70 again on the next round. They will make so much more money if everyone keeps all of these coins rather than selling back.
Founder- Peak Rarities
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Lol. Good stuff, Andy!