@DeplorableDan said:
well, let the games begin, the first listing sold for ask
Congratulations to that seller. Time to make a decision. Once these boxes start being opened, no one is going to pay $1200 for one. They probably wouldn't even pay $600. This is FOMO gone wild. Once people see what they are missing, they are going to be fine missing it.
Now 2 are available at $1,000 each. This isn't going to be a biggie like a Mint offering, because there are only 800, and a lot of buyers are going to want to keep them or open them. It's now or never. I'm telling you, interest will dissipate once they are out in the wild.
You tell us a lot of things. It doesn't make it true.
It's an opinion that I'm sharing, just like you are.
@Namvet69 said:
Somewhere, Rod Serling is smiling.
Him and PT Barnum.
Most manufacturers of a prestigious product line would never allow their goods to be marketed this way. The droves of disappointed potential customers being chased away surpasses any gain of a few winners.
Speaks volumes about the self regulation and self policing of supposed leaders in the marketplace.
The manufacturer would pull the brand from the seller faster than you can say flip.
So, why do PCGS slabs show up on TV, YouTube and other unorthodox marketing platforms?
You also have to remember that you aren't the customer. There are lots of card collectors that buy sealed boxes of cards to put together sets or to find the valuable cards. How is this any different?
I didn't play, but I like the game.
I wonder if he thought about a limited edition slab salted into the boxes rather than a different coin. Imagine a black and red doily.
There's a lot of ways to make this fun. There's also a lot of ways to make this pay off for both buyer and seller.
Just an analogy.
It's different from the cards because the valuations are night and day. You are enticing a gambling act to obtain coins worth thousands of dollars.
For me it's always about 100 happy customers out of 100 transactions, that's the goal.
It's never about 60 happy customers out of 100 or whatever the ratio of losers to normal retail pricing.
Why cultivate aggravation? If even a few people end up disappointed because of no access or because the product will never recover close to normal retail margin then that is a loser for the whole marketplace. It reflects negatively on the market, regardless of intent.
Look at the price of an unopened 1951 Bowman wax pack and tell me again how it's different.
Even in coins, a sealed GSA box or a sealed proof set sell for a premium. How is that different?
Vaultbox might well have 100 happy customers out of 100.
They won't, but that's really not the point. While there might be some crossover, they are not marketing these to established collectors. They are marketing them to the gamblers who play the sealed card box game.
People lose playing the lottery every day and keep coming back for more. That's what they are counting on here, since each series will provide less expected value than their cost, but will also provide the possibility of big wins.
The fact that they sold out so fast, and, at least one person paid $1200 for one on eBay, shows they are on to something here. At least until the novelty wears off.
@Namvet69 said:
Somewhere, Rod Serling is smiling.
Him and PT Barnum.
Most manufacturers of a prestigious product line would never allow their goods to be marketed this way. The droves of disappointed potential customers being chased away surpasses any gain of a few winners.
Speaks volumes about the self regulation and self policing of supposed leaders in the marketplace.
The manufacturer would pull the brand from the seller faster than you can say flip.
So, why do PCGS slabs show up on TV, YouTube and other unorthodox marketing platforms?
You also have to remember that you aren't the customer. There are lots of card collectors that buy sealed boxes of cards to put together sets or to find the valuable cards. How is this any different?
I didn't play, but I like the game.
I wonder if he thought about a limited edition slab salted into the boxes rather than a different coin. Imagine a black and red doily.
There's a lot of ways to make this fun. There's also a lot of ways to make this pay off for both buyer and seller.
Just an analogy.
It's different from the cards because the valuations are night and day. You are enticing a gambling act to obtain coins worth thousands of dollars.
For me it's always about 100 happy customers out of 100 transactions, that's the goal.
It's never about 60 happy customers out of 100 or whatever the ratio of losers to normal retail pricing.
Why cultivate aggravation? If even a few people end up disappointed because of no access or because the product will never recover close to normal retail margin then that is a loser for the whole marketplace. It reflects negatively on the market, regardless of intent.
Look at the price of an unopened 1951 Bowman wax pack and tell me again how it's different.
Even in coins, a sealed GSA box or a sealed proof set sell for a premium. How is that different?
Vaultbox might well have 100 happy customers out of 100.
Factory sealed 70 year old and decades old Mint sealed is a different animal then made up contemporary merch.
The perceived values are not similar. Check thread history you see that collectors have been disappointed with GSA sealed boxes. Those that know stay away. Here you are cultivating new collectors with a new scale. I do not see a happy future customer with an average yield from one of these.
Agreed. This is not going to create new collectors, based on the thrill of owning overpriced bullion. This is going to attract people willing to accept a return of minus 20-30%, in return for a less than 1% chance to make a big score. The same folks who accept a $0.50 return on every $1.00 for the one in several hundred million chance to become a multimillionaire. Better odds with a lower upside, but people are clearly attracted.
@DeplorableDan said:
well, let the games begin, the first listing sold for ask
Congratulations to that seller. Time to make a decision. Once these boxes start being opened, no one is going to pay $1200 for one. They probably wouldn't even pay $600. This is FOMO gone wild. Once people see what they are missing, they are going to be fine missing it.
Now 2 are available at $1,000 each. This isn't going to be a biggie like a Mint offering, because there are only 800, and a lot of buyers are going to want to keep them or open them. It's now or never. I'm telling you, interest will dissipate once they are out in the wild.
I appreciate you trying to look out for me, but i was planning on opening the box anyway. There’s already more listings at $999 and two boxes available. eBay takes 15% up to $1000 I think so if I sold at that price I would only net 8 and change. Even at 1199 I would net 1000 but now that these are listed I can’t price mine even
9% with a store.
And just what good does that do him if he doesn't have a store? Bulk buyers buy at a discount from the Mint. How does that help you?
It doesn't, so why mention it? His cost of selling will be 15%. That's all that matters to him.
@DeplorableDan said:
well, let the games begin, the first listing sold for ask
Congratulations to that seller. Time to make a decision. Once these boxes start being opened, no one is going to pay $1200 for one. They probably wouldn't even pay $600. This is FOMO gone wild. Once people see what they are missing, they are going to be fine missing it.
Now 2 are available at $1,000 each. This isn't going to be a biggie like a Mint offering, because there are only 800, and a lot of buyers are going to want to keep them or open them. It's now or never. I'm telling you, interest will dissipate once they are out in the wild.
I appreciate you trying to look out for me, but i was planning on opening the box anyway. There’s already more listings at $999 and two boxes available. eBay takes 15% up to $1000 I think so if I sold at that price I would only net 8 and change. Even at 1199 I would net 1000 but now that these are listed I can’t price mine even
9% with a store.
And just what good does that do him if he doesn't have a store? Bulk buyers buy at a discount from the Mint. How does that help you?
It doesn't, so why mention it? His cost of selling will be 15%. That's all that matters to him.
Perhaps he was making a suggestion that I should consider having one if I sell coins on eBay. I’m not sure where it advertises 9% but the one chart I looked at said 12.9% up to $7500 or something like that. I’m not even certain that my fee is 15% but I know it’s in that relative range. We would have to do a comparative analysis to weigh out if it was profitable for me to have a store as I very infrequently sell coins on eBay and my store would be empty most of the time, but we can save that conversation for another time and thread.
@SlipKid said:
Looks like they managed to get them shipped out already. 2-day fedex. They must have had the boxes ready to go.
Yes, I got a shipping notification as well. All things considered, regardless of my opinion on the product itself, I will give credit where credit is due. The release may have been an utter disaster, but I’m glad to see they were well prepared for timely shipping.
My recommendation for Vaultbox based on the release would be to consider sending an email link to buy the product to those who signed up for the mailing list. Perhaps that could help with the overwhelming website traffic.
As mentioned in another comment, this was marketed and promoted as an innovative way to bring new collectors into the hobby, but based on the results of today’s release, it would appear that they were gobbled up by gamblers/flippers/experienced mint offering buyers. I agree that most novices were probably not prepared to jump through technological hoops in order to secure one.
@Namvet69 said:
Somewhere, Rod Serling is smiling.
Him and PT Barnum.
Most manufacturers of a prestigious product line would never allow their goods to be marketed this way. The droves of disappointed potential customers being chased away surpasses any gain of a few winners.
Speaks volumes about the self regulation and self policing of supposed leaders in the marketplace.
The manufacturer would pull the brand from the seller faster than you can say flip.
So, why do PCGS slabs show up on TV, YouTube and other unorthodox marketing platforms?
You also have to remember that you aren't the customer. There are lots of card collectors that buy sealed boxes of cards to put together sets or to find the valuable cards. How is this any different?
I didn't play, but I like the game.
I wonder if he thought about a limited edition slab salted into the boxes rather than a different coin. Imagine a black and red doily.
There's a lot of ways to make this fun. There's also a lot of ways to make this pay off for both buyer and seller.
Just an analogy.
It's different from the cards because the valuations are night and day. You are enticing a gambling act to obtain coins worth thousands of dollars.
For me it's always about 100 happy customers out of 100 transactions, that's the goal.
It's never about 60 happy customers out of 100 or whatever the ratio of losers to normal retail pricing.
Why cultivate aggravation? If even a few people end up disappointed because of no access or because the product will never recover close to normal retail margin then that is a loser for the whole marketplace. It reflects negatively on the market, regardless of intent.
Look at the price of an unopened 1951 Bowman wax pack and tell me again how it's different.
Even in coins, a sealed GSA box or a sealed proof set sell for a premium. How is that different?
Vaultbox might well have 100 happy customers out of 100.
They won't, but that's really not the point. While there might be some crossover, they are not marketing these to established collectors. They are marketing them to the gamblers who play the sealed card box game.
People lose playing the lottery every day and keep coming back for more. That's what they are counting on here, since each series will provide less expected value than their cost, but will also provide the possibility of big wins.
The fact that they sold out so fast, and, at least one person paid $1200 for one on eBay, shows they are on to something here. At least until the novelty wears off.
Which proves my point. So why are you arguing?
Not really. I guess I wasn't clear. Degenerate gamblers who lose are not "happy customers," although they can't control themselves and keep coming back. I don't really have an opinion on whether repeat buyers of these would be considered compulsive gamblers, but my point was that people like @DeplorableDan who end up losing hundreds of dollars are unlikely to be "happy customers," even if they didn't really expect anything different.
But I'll let @DeplorableDan speak for himself on that point. My point was that, sure, they generated a lot of attention and had a quick sell-out, but I do not think they will have "100 out of 100" happy customers once the boxes are opened. Which is why I advised @DeplorableDan to sell now if he intends to sell. Once the vision of red cores with one ounce gold coins dissipates, and the reality of what's in these boxes is exposed for everyone to see, there won't be a market for them at $1000+ on eBay.
Compulsive gambling tendencies aside, I would still be pretty bummed if all I got were a few bullion coins with a resale value under $300. it’s all about the potential upside being worth the potential downside. I haven’t priced out the coins to see how much potential upside there is to begin with, but it hinges on how inflated the NGCX Vaultbox guide value is over the coins real world resale value. From there we could determine whether the markup could be categorized as “excessive” or “reasonable”.
@SlipKid said:
Looks like they managed to get them shipped out already. 2-day fedex. They must have had the boxes ready to go.
Yes, I got a shipping notification as well. All things considered, regardless of my opinion on the product itself, I will give credit where credit is due. The release may have been an utter disaster, but I’m glad to see they were well prepared for timely shipping.
My recommendation for Vaultbox based on the release would be to consider sending an email link to buy the product to those who signed up for the mailing list. Perhaps that could help with the overwhelming website traffic.
As mentioned in another comment, this was marketed and promoted as an innovative way to bring new collectors into the hobby, but based on the results of today’s release, it would appear that they were gobbled up by gamblers/flippers/experienced mint offering buyers. I agree that most novices were probably not prepared to jump through technological hoops in order to secure one.
I can tell you from personal experience that sports card flippers are very aggressive so I am sure they got their share🙄
I don't know what happened to my previous comment. I tried to edit a typo and it disappeared into the ether.
The point of that comment was that I wonder how many unsatisfied customers there will actually be if any. There were only 800 boxes available and with the website issues I question how many new/novice collectors were actually able to make a purchase as opposed to people like myself who knew exactly what I was getting into and won't be disappointed regardless of the outcome.
I am no gambler let alone a degenerate one. I made my purchase for sheer entertainment value. At the very least I will end up with three coins with some value, and if I end up losing a few hundred bucks so be it. I drop more than that whenever the family and I go out to our favorite steakhouse, and when dinner is over all we have to show for it is a good time.
@Namvet69 said:
Somewhere, Rod Serling is smiling.
Him and PT Barnum.
Most manufacturers of a prestigious product line would never allow their goods to be marketed this way. The droves of disappointed potential customers being chased away surpasses any gain of a few winners.
Speaks volumes about the self regulation and self policing of supposed leaders in the marketplace.
The manufacturer would pull the brand from the seller faster than you can say flip.
So, why do PCGS slabs show up on TV, YouTube and other unorthodox marketing platforms?
You also have to remember that you aren't the customer. There are lots of card collectors that buy sealed boxes of cards to put together sets or to find the valuable cards. How is this any different?
I didn't play, but I like the game.
I wonder if he thought about a limited edition slab salted into the boxes rather than a different coin. Imagine a black and red doily.
There's a lot of ways to make this fun. There's also a lot of ways to make this pay off for both buyer and seller.
Just an analogy.
It's different from the cards because the valuations are night and day. You are enticing a gambling act to obtain coins worth thousands of dollars.
For me it's always about 100 happy customers out of 100 transactions, that's the goal.
It's never about 60 happy customers out of 100 or whatever the ratio of losers to normal retail pricing.
Why cultivate aggravation? If even a few people end up disappointed because of no access or because the product will never recover close to normal retail margin then that is a loser for the whole marketplace. It reflects negatively on the market, regardless of intent.
Look at the price of an unopened 1951 Bowman wax pack and tell me again how it's different.
Even in coins, a sealed GSA box or a sealed proof set sell for a premium. How is that different?
Vaultbox might well have 100 happy customers out of 100.
They won't, but that's really not the point. While there might be some crossover, they are not marketing these to established collectors. They are marketing them to the gamblers who play the sealed card box game.
People lose playing the lottery every day and keep coming back for more. That's what they are counting on here, since each series will provide less expected value than their cost, but will also provide the possibility of big wins.
The fact that they sold out so fast, and, at least one person paid $1200 for one on eBay, shows they are on to something here. At least until the novelty wears off.
Which proves my point. So why are you arguing?
Not really. I guess I wasn't clear. Degenerate gamblers who lose are not "happy customers," although they can't control themselves and keep coming back. I don't really have an opinion on whether repeat buyers of these would be considered compulsive gamblers, but my point was that people like @DeplorableDan who end up losing hundreds of dollars are unlikely to be "happy customers," even if they didn't really expect anything different.
But I'll let @DeplorableDan speak for himself on that point. My point was that, sure, they generated a lot of attention and had a quick sell-out, but I do not think they will have "100 out of 100" happy customers once the boxes are opened, which is why I advised @DeplorableDan to sell now if he intends to sell. Once the vision of red cores with one ounce gold coins dissipates, and the reality of what's in these boxes is exposed for everyone to see, there won't be a market for them at $1000+ on eBay.
Don't pretend to understand the players if you aren't one. People who play the game, know the stakes. They won't be unhappy with the outcome, they'll just play again. People play the card game repeatedly, even though they lose.
Yes sir! Sure they won't. Just look at the reaction on YouTube to the unboxing video. Maybe you can go there and give them all a lecture about putting on their big boy pants after they post their whiny unboxing videos. I understand people, players and the game just fine. Thanks anyway.
As I said before, quoting the great Mike Tyson, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." We'll see just how many people graciously state that they got to play the game and lost, and are happy with the outcome, after they see just what they bought for $615, plus tax in CA.
My prediction is that less than 10% will be thrilled, another 10-20% will be okay, and 70-80% will be disappointed, if not outright pissed off. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. Let's see if you do the same, without whining about selection bias, or anything else, once you see the posts.
@UpGrayedd said:
I don't know what happened to my previous comment. I tried to edit a typo and it disappeared into the ether.
The point of that comment was that I wonder how many unsatisfied customers there will actually be if any. There were only 800 boxes available and with the website issues I question how many new/novice collectors were actually able to make a purchase as opposed to people like myself who knew exactly what I was getting into and won't be disappointed regardless of the outcome.
I am no gambler let alone a degenerate one. I made my purchase for sheer entertainment value. At the very least I will end up with three coins with some value, and if I end up losing a few hundred bucks so be it. I drop more than that whenever the family and I go out to our favorite steakhouse, and when dinner is over all we have to show for it is a good time.
@DeplorableDan said:
it’s all about the potential upside being worth the potential downside.
Suppose you have two choices:
Minimal chance of loss, but not much gained if you win.
Win big or lose big.
Which would you prefer?
It depends on the game and my mood at the time, but I'm not certain that this is either of those two options, you forgot about the third option:
C. high probability of substantial loss, but not much gained if you win
Im not saying that is the case, but I'm not saying that it's not either. I haven't put in the work to analyze the possibilities, Im waiting to draw my own conclusions after I open the box and compare the results from others. All I'm saying is that I would hope that the amount of losers is balanced out by the amount of winners, and if we consider a box with an NGCX value of $800 to be a winner, then I hope that the real life resale value isn't too far off from that number. Ignoring the guide values and using prices that a coin could be acquired for in the marketplace, if most the "losers" win $200-$300 and most the "winners" win $300-$500 and a only a select few people win big boy coins that break even on the cost of the box, It would be unlikely that I would participate in the future. They're entitled to make a reasonable profit, but for me the question is how excessive are these margins vs the average margins on conventional sales of similar coins.
@DeplorableDan said:
it’s all about the potential upside being worth the potential downside.
Suppose you have two choices:
Minimal chance of loss, but not much gained if you win.
Win big or lose big.
Which would you prefer?
While everything is relative, that is kind of neither. The upside isn't millions, it's $23K. Not shabby, but not life changing either. Is that winning big?
OTOH, the potential loss is around $200-300. Not huge either, but pretty significant as compared to the $600 "investment." Especially when you consider that the odds of loss are huge. Around 80%.
Around 20% will break even or win a little. Almost no chance of winning big. Lots of hype around the potential for a $3-23K score. Little attention paid to the microscopic odds of that, although it was fully disclosed.
People slammed the website, it crashed and sold out fast. True FOMO degenerates are now paying whatever it takes on eBay to not miss out. The rest will be determined when they are delivered over the next few days. At least we won't have to wait weeks for the outcome.
@DeplorableDan said:
it’s all about the potential upside being worth the potential downside.
Suppose you have two choices:
Minimal chance of loss, but not much gained if you win.
Win big or lose big.
Which would you prefer?
It depends on the game and my mood at the time, but I'm not certain that this is either of those two options, you forgot about the third option:
C. high probability of substantial loss, but not much gained if you win
I wasn't asking about in this case, just in general. And to be comprehensive, shouldn't this option be included, too?
D. high probability of substantial win, but not much lost if you don't
oh, well in general I don't play to win, I play for enjoyment only. I like to think that I'm decent at Hold'em and I enjoy the game itself. Blackjack is fun when with a group, and a little action on a boring game makes it much more watchable. Never playing for profit, If I wanted more income i would just work more. The best part is that all provide a solid excuse to either leave the house or ignore my girlfriend for several hours.
@UpGrayedd said:
I don't know what happened to my previous comment. I tried to edit a typo and it disappeared into the ether.
The point of that comment was that I wonder how many unsatisfied customers there will actually be if any. There were only 800 boxes available and with the website issues I question how many new/novice collectors were actually able to make a purchase as opposed to people like myself who knew exactly what I was getting into and won't be disappointed regardless of the outcome.
I am no gambler let alone a degenerate one. I made my purchase for sheer entertainment value. At the very least I will end up with three coins with some value, and if I end up losing a few hundred bucks so be it. I drop more than that whenever the family and I go out to our favorite steakhouse, and when dinner is over all we have to show for it is a good time.
That's fine, and you are probably typical. You don't have to be suicidal over a $300 loss to not be happy. Will you be so entertained if you end up losing $200-300 that you'll keep going back for more?
Will you really consider it good value if what you have at the end of the meal is the thrill of competition on the website and 3 ASEs worth around $300? If so, then you and @jmlanzaf will turn out to be right and VaultBox will have invented a new way to print money.
I think there are all kinds of meals. Some are worth $600 and others are not. A fine steak dinner at Morton's, Ruth Chris, etc. will easily cost several hundred dollars for a family of 4. Paying $100 for a grab bag and ending up at Burger King wouldn't make too many people happy, even though they had a tiny shot at a $1,000 Kobe steak dinner. We'll see.
@NJCoin said:
That's fine, and you are probably typical. You don't have to be suicidal over a $300 loss to not be happy. Will you be so entertained if you end up losing $200-300 that you'll keep going back for more?
@MasonG said:
A $23k win is "not shabby, but not life changing either", while a $200-$300 loss is "pretty significant" as compared to the initial $600 investment?
Let me guess... glass half empty, right?
In general, yes! But that wasn't my point at all. I was just saying that, while this is like a lottery, it isn't to the extent that the upside isn't life changing, while the downside isn't a total loss. Plus, the $600 investment is a lot less trivial than $2 or so for a lottery ticket.
@Namvet69 said:
Somewhere, Rod Serling is smiling.
Him and PT Barnum.
Most manufacturers of a prestigious product line would never allow their goods to be marketed this way. The droves of disappointed potential customers being chased away surpasses any gain of a few winners.
Speaks volumes about the self regulation and self policing of supposed leaders in the marketplace.
The manufacturer would pull the brand from the seller faster than you can say flip.
So, why do PCGS slabs show up on TV, YouTube and other unorthodox marketing platforms?
You also have to remember that you aren't the customer. There are lots of card collectors that buy sealed boxes of cards to put together sets or to find the valuable cards. How is this any different?
I didn't play, but I like the game.
I wonder if he thought about a limited edition slab salted into the boxes rather than a different coin. Imagine a black and red doily.
There's a lot of ways to make this fun. There's also a lot of ways to make this pay off for both buyer and seller.
Just an analogy.
It's different from the cards because the valuations are night and day. You are enticing a gambling act to obtain coins worth thousands of dollars.
For me it's always about 100 happy customers out of 100 transactions, that's the goal.
It's never about 60 happy customers out of 100 or whatever the ratio of losers to normal retail pricing.
Why cultivate aggravation? If even a few people end up disappointed because of no access or because the product will never recover close to normal retail margin then that is a loser for the whole marketplace. It reflects negatively on the market, regardless of intent.
Look at the price of an unopened 1951 Bowman wax pack and tell me again how it's different.
Even in coins, a sealed GSA box or a sealed proof set sell for a premium. How is that different?
Vaultbox might well have 100 happy customers out of 100.
They won't, but that's really not the point. While there might be some crossover, they are not marketing these to established collectors. They are marketing them to the gamblers who play the sealed card box game.
People lose playing the lottery every day and keep coming back for more. That's what they are counting on here, since each series will provide less expected value than their cost, but will also provide the possibility of big wins.
The fact that they sold out so fast, and, at least one person paid $1200 for one on eBay, shows they are on to something here. At least until the novelty wears off.
Which proves my point. So why are you arguing?
Not really. I guess I wasn't clear. Degenerate gamblers who lose are not "happy customers," although they can't control themselves and keep coming back. I don't really have an opinion on whether repeat buyers of these would be considered compulsive gamblers, but my point was that people like @DeplorableDan who end up losing hundreds of dollars are unlikely to be "happy customers," even if they didn't really expect anything different.
But I'll let @DeplorableDan speak for himself on that point. My point was that, sure, they generated a lot of attention and had a quick sell-out, but I do not think they will have "100 out of 100" happy customers once the boxes are opened, which is why I advised @DeplorableDan to sell now if he intends to sell. Once the vision of red cores with one ounce gold coins dissipates, and the reality of what's in these boxes is exposed for everyone to see, there won't be a market for them at $1000+ on eBay.
Don't pretend to understand the players if you aren't one. People who play the game, know the stakes. They won't be unhappy with the outcome, they'll just play again. People play the card game repeatedly, even though they lose.
Yes sir! Sure they won't. Just look at the reaction on YouTube to the unboxing video. Maybe you can go there and give them all a lecture about putting on their big boy pants after they post their whiny unboxing videos. I understand people, players and the game just fine. Thanks anyway.
As I said before, quoting the great Mike Tyson, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." We'll see just how many people graciously state that they got to play the game and lost, and are happy with the outcome, after they see just what they bought for $615, plus tax in CA.
My prediction is that less than 10% will be thrilled, another 10-20% will be okay, and 70-80% will be disappointed, if not outright pissed off. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. Let's see if you do the same, without whining about selection bias, or anything else, once you see the posts.
Those people weren't players. Your evidence is internet trolls?
No. That was just the opening round. My evidence will be whoever posts unboxing videos. I have no idea what's going to happen. Neither do you.
My prediction is that most will lose, and they won't be gleeful about it when posting, because they played the game knowing the rules. They're going to be screaming about inflated values and crappy Instant Offers. We'll see, but that's what I see happening.
@UpGrayedd said:
I don't know what happened to my previous comment. I tried to edit a typo and it disappeared into the ether.
The point of that comment was that I wonder how many unsatisfied customers there will actually be if any. There were only 800 boxes available and with the website issues I question how many new/novice collectors were actually able to make a purchase as opposed to people like myself who knew exactly what I was getting into and won't be disappointed regardless of the outcome.
I am no gambler let alone a degenerate one. I made my purchase for sheer entertainment value. At the very least I will end up with three coins with some value, and if I end up losing a few hundred bucks so be it. I drop more than that whenever the family and I go out to our favorite steakhouse, and when dinner is over all we have to show for it is a good time.
That's fine, and you are probably typical. You don't have to be suicidal over a $300 loss to not be happy. Will you be so entertained if you end up losing $200-300 that you'll keep going back for more?
Will you really consider it good value if what you have at the end of the meal is the thrill of competition on the website and 3 ASEs worth around $300? If so, then you and @jmlanzaf will turn out to be right and VaultBox will have invented a new way to print money.
I think there are all kinds of meals. Some are worth $600 and others are not. A fine steak dinner at Morton's, Ruth Chris, etc. will easily cost several hundred dollars for a family of 4. Paying $100 for a grab bag and ending up at Burger King wouldn't make too many people happy, even though they had a tiny shot at a $1,000 Kobe steak dinner. We'll see.
To quote my favorite Talking Heads song, you're talking a lot, but you're not saying anything, at least not anything new...
@NJCoin said:
Plus, the $600 investment is a lot less trivial than $2 or so for a lottery ticket.
Different people have different amounts that they're willing to risk. Do you think if Elon Musk wanted to play blackjack, he'd look for a $1 minimum table?
@NJCoin said:
That's fine, and you are probably typical. You don't have to be suicidal over a $300 loss to not be happy. Will you be so entertained if you end up losing $200-300 that you'll keep going back for more?
You've heard of Las Vegas, right?
I think so. Bright lights. Pick pockets. $80 buffets? Is that it?
If so, yes, that's fun. Open a FedEx box and flushing a couple of hundred dollars down it? Not so much.
@NJCoin said:
That's fine, and you are probably typical. You don't have to be suicidal over a $300 loss to not be happy. Will you be so entertained if you end up losing $200-300 that you'll keep going back for more?
You've heard of Las Vegas, right?
I think so. Bright lights. Pick pockets. $80 buffets? Is that it?
If so, yes, that's fun. Open a FedEx box and flushing a couple of hundred dollars down it? Not so much.
In the immortal words of @jmlanzaf, "You could have said it in 4 words."
@MasonG said:
A $23k win is "not shabby, but not life changing either", while a $200-$300 loss is "pretty significant" as compared to the initial $600 investment?
Let me guess... glass half empty, right?
In general, yes! But that wasn't my point at all. I was just saying that, while this is like a lottery, it isn't to the extent that the upside isn't life changing, while the downside isn't a total loss. Plus, the $600 investment is a lot less trivial than $2 or so for a lottery ticket.
And $20 scratch offs?
You're projecting your feeling onto others. We get it. You don't like VaultBoxes. You could have said it in 4 words.
No. If you haven't figured it out by now, I can't say anything in 4 words. 😂
In any event, a $20 scratch off is not a $600 mystery box. People don't buy them to be "entertained." They buy them in the hope of striking it rich. And yes, I think they are also making bad choices with their money.
@NJCoin said:
Plus, the $600 investment is a lot less trivial than $2 or so for a lottery ticket.
Different people have different amounts that they're willing to risk. Do you think if Elon Musk wanted to play blackjack, he'd look for a $1 minimum table?
Nope. I think he'd flush away $44 billion on Twitter, and then claim it was all for entertainment.
What's your point? That no one with real money would waste their time on a mystery box trying to score $20K, and that they'd make intelligent decisions with their collecting budget? That most people chasing this likely consider $600 real money? I agree.
@NJCoin said:
No. If you haven't figured it out by now, I can't say anything in 4 words. 😂
Can't argue with that. There are about 600 posts on this thread, 25% (+/-) of them are yours.
Yup. I seem to be the guy everyone needs to engage with. Fine with me.
It's all good, everyone has been respectful, and lots of valid points have been made, on all sides. There is clearly a market for this. Whether or not people received good, or fair value, will be revealed in the next few days. Either way, the thread will die down and life will go on.
@NJCoin said:
That's fine, and you are probably typical. You don't have to be suicidal over a $300 loss to not be happy. Will you be so entertained if you end up losing $200-300 that you'll keep going back for more?
You've heard of Las Vegas, right?
I think so. Bright lights. Pick pockets. $80 buffets? Is that it?
If so, yes, that's fun. Open a FedEx box and flushing a couple of hundred dollars down it? Not so much.
In the immortal words of @jmlanzaf, "You could have said it in 4 words."
In the immortal words of @NJCoin, "No, I couldn't. I said it in exactly the number of words I needed." If I'm ever in the market for an editor, I'll be sure to keep you guys in mind.
@NJCoin said:
Plus, the $600 investment is a lot less trivial than $2 or so for a lottery ticket.
Different people have different amounts that they're willing to risk. Do you think if Elon Musk wanted to play blackjack, he'd look for a $1 minimum table?
Nope. I think he'd flush away $44 billion on Twitter, and then claim it was all for entertainment.
What's your point? That no one with real money would waste their time on a mystery box trying to score $20K, and that they'd make intelligent decisions with their collecting budget? That most people chasing this likely consider $600 real money? I agree.
My point? People have different levels of risk that they're willing to tolerate. Thought that was obvious from the context, but I guess not. Sorry for thinking otherwise.
IMO, it's presumptuous to think that your opinion of how to spend money is the intelligent one, it's condescending as well. Also, why are you assuming that people are using their collecting budget?
@NJCoin said:
Plus, the $600 investment is a lot less trivial than $2 or so for a lottery ticket.
Different people have different amounts that they're willing to risk. Do you think if Elon Musk wanted to play blackjack, he'd look for a $1 minimum table?
Nope. I think he'd flush away $44 billion on Twitter, and then claim it was all for entertainment.
What's your point? That no one with real money would waste their time on a mystery box trying to score $20K, and that they'd make intelligent decisions with their collecting budget? That most people chasing this likely consider $600 real money? I agree.
My point? People have different levels of risk that they're willing to tolerate. Thought that was obvious from the context, but I guess not. Sorry for thinking otherwise.
IMO, it's presumptuous to think that your opinion of how to spend money is the intelligent one, it's condescending as well. Also, why are you assuming that people are using their collecting budget?
I was being sarcastic, but making the point that a wealthy person wouldn't waste their time on a low stakes lottery, so analogizing to Elon Musk was pointless. Since the money isn't life changing, I'm assuming $20K is a big deal to most buyers, in which case losing $300 probably will be as well. Not all, but many.
As far as presumptuous or condescending goes, I'm not sure how to respond. If pointing out that putting $1.00 into a box that is expected to return $0.80 is a bad financial deal is presumptuous or condescending, then I guess I'm guilty as charged. But I like to think of it as pointing something out to someone who maybe wasn't looking at things the right way.
Whether or not I was stating the obvious to those who played will be revealed when they post their results. If they lose and are satisfied, because it's what they expected going in, then you will be right. Otherwise, not so much.
@NJCoin said:
As far as presumptuous or condescending goes, I'm not sure how to respond. If pointing out that putting $1.00 into a box that is expected to return $0.80 is a bad financial deal is presumptuous or condescending, then I guess I'm guilty as charged.
As long as your figures are accurate, this isn't particularly presumptuous or condescending.
@NJCoin said:
But I like to think of it as pointing something out to someone who maybe wasn't looking at things the right way.
@NJCoin said:
Plus, the $600 investment is a lot less trivial than $2 or so for a lottery ticket.
Different people have different amounts that they're willing to risk. Do you think if Elon Musk wanted to play blackjack, he'd look for a $1 minimum table?
Nope. I think he'd flush away $44 billion on Twitter, and then claim it was all for entertainment.
What's your point? That no one with real money would waste their time on a mystery box trying to score $20K, and that they'd make intelligent decisions with their collecting budget? That most people chasing this likely consider $600 real money? I agree.
My point? People have different levels of risk that they're willing to tolerate. Thought that was obvious from the context, but I guess not. Sorry for thinking otherwise.
IMO, it's presumptuous to think that your opinion of how to spend money is the intelligent one, it's condescending as well. Also, why are you assuming that people are using their collecting budget?
I've never seen someone so concerned with how people that he does not know spend their money. I get it he thinks it is a poor choice and a waste of money, but good grief how many times does he have to say it.
@NJCoin said:
Plus, the $600 investment is a lot less trivial than $2 or so for a lottery ticket.
Different people have different amounts that they're willing to risk. Do you think if Elon Musk wanted to play blackjack, he'd look for a $1 minimum table?
Nope. I think he'd flush away $44 billion on Twitter, and then claim it was all for entertainment.
What's your point? That no one with real money would waste their time on a mystery box trying to score $20K, and that they'd make intelligent decisions with their collecting budget? That most people chasing this likely consider $600 real money? I agree.
My point? People have different levels of risk that they're willing to tolerate. Thought that was obvious from the context, but I guess not. Sorry for thinking otherwise.
IMO, it's presumptuous to think that your opinion of how to spend money is the intelligent one, it's condescending as well. Also, why are you assuming that people are using their collecting budget?
I've never seen someone so concerned with how people that he does not know spend their money. I get it he thinks it is a poor choice and a waste of money, but good grief how many times does he have to say it.
@NJCoin said:
As far as presumptuous or condescending goes, I'm not sure how to respond. If pointing out that putting $1.00 into a box that is expected to return $0.80 is a bad financial deal is presumptuous or condescending, then I guess I'm guilty as charged.
As long as your figures are accurate, this isn't particularly presumptuous or condescending.
@NJCoin said:
But I like to think of it as pointing something out to someone who maybe wasn't looking at things the right way.
This is.
We'll see. If people express surprise and disappointment when they open their boxes, then no, they weren't looking at things the right way, and I wasn't presumptuous for thinking so.
@NJCoin said:
Plus, the $600 investment is a lot less trivial than $2 or so for a lottery ticket.
Different people have different amounts that they're willing to risk. Do you think if Elon Musk wanted to play blackjack, he'd look for a $1 minimum table?
Nope. I think he'd flush away $44 billion on Twitter, and then claim it was all for entertainment.
What's your point? That no one with real money would waste their time on a mystery box trying to score $20K, and that they'd make intelligent decisions with their collecting budget? That most people chasing this likely consider $600 real money? I agree.
My point? People have different levels of risk that they're willing to tolerate. Thought that was obvious from the context, but I guess not. Sorry for thinking otherwise.
IMO, it's presumptuous to think that your opinion of how to spend money is the intelligent one, it's condescending as well. Also, why are you assuming that people are using their collecting budget?
I've never seen someone so concerned with how people that he does not know spend their money. I get it he thinks it is a poor choice and a waste of money, but good grief how many times does he have to say it.
Only as many times as people feel the need to straighten me out. ALL of my posts after the first few have been in response to others.
Comments
It's an opinion that I'm sharing, just like you are.
They won't, but that's really not the point. While there might be some crossover, they are not marketing these to established collectors. They are marketing them to the gamblers who play the sealed card box game.
People lose playing the lottery every day and keep coming back for more. That's what they are counting on here, since each series will provide less expected value than their cost, but will also provide the possibility of big wins.
The fact that they sold out so fast, and, at least one person paid $1200 for one on eBay, shows they are on to something here. At least until the novelty wears off.
Agreed. This is not going to create new collectors, based on the thrill of owning overpriced bullion. This is going to attract people willing to accept a return of minus 20-30%, in return for a less than 1% chance to make a big score. The same folks who accept a $0.50 return on every $1.00 for the one in several hundred million chance to become a multimillionaire. Better odds with a lower upside, but people are clearly attracted.
And just what good does that do him if he doesn't have a store? Bulk buyers buy at a discount from the Mint. How does that help you?
It doesn't, so why mention it? His cost of selling will be 15%. That's all that matters to him.
Looks like they managed to get them shipped out already. 2-day fedex. They must have had the boxes ready to go.
Perhaps he was making a suggestion that I should consider having one if I sell coins on eBay. I’m not sure where it advertises 9% but the one chart I looked at said 12.9% up to $7500 or something like that. I’m not even certain that my fee is 15% but I know it’s in that relative range. We would have to do a comparative analysis to weigh out if it was profitable for me to have a store as I very infrequently sell coins on eBay and my store would be empty most of the time, but we can save that conversation for another time and thread.
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Yes, I got a shipping notification as well. All things considered, regardless of my opinion on the product itself, I will give credit where credit is due. The release may have been an utter disaster, but I’m glad to see they were well prepared for timely shipping.
My recommendation for Vaultbox based on the release would be to consider sending an email link to buy the product to those who signed up for the mailing list. Perhaps that could help with the overwhelming website traffic.
As mentioned in another comment, this was marketed and promoted as an innovative way to bring new collectors into the hobby, but based on the results of today’s release, it would appear that they were gobbled up by gamblers/flippers/experienced mint offering buyers. I agree that most novices were probably not prepared to jump through technological hoops in order to secure one.
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52
Not really. I guess I wasn't clear. Degenerate gamblers who lose are not "happy customers," although they can't control themselves and keep coming back. I don't really have an opinion on whether repeat buyers of these would be considered compulsive gamblers, but my point was that people like @DeplorableDan who end up losing hundreds of dollars are unlikely to be "happy customers," even if they didn't really expect anything different.
But I'll let @DeplorableDan speak for himself on that point. My point was that, sure, they generated a lot of attention and had a quick sell-out, but I do not think they will have "100 out of 100" happy customers once the boxes are opened. Which is why I advised @DeplorableDan to sell now if he intends to sell. Once the vision of red cores with one ounce gold coins dissipates, and the reality of what's in these boxes is exposed for everyone to see, there won't be a market for them at $1000+ on eBay.
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I was logged in at release time and all I ever saw was out of stock and the site kept logging me out.
Compulsive gambling tendencies aside, I would still be pretty bummed if all I got were a few bullion coins with a resale value under $300. it’s all about the potential upside being worth the potential downside. I haven’t priced out the coins to see how much potential upside there is to begin with, but it hinges on how inflated the NGCX Vaultbox guide value is over the coins real world resale value. From there we could determine whether the markup could be categorized as “excessive” or “reasonable”.
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I can tell you from personal experience that sports card flippers are very aggressive so I am sure they got their share🙄
Suppose you have two choices:
Which would you prefer?
I don't know what happened to my previous comment. I tried to edit a typo and it disappeared into the ether.
The point of that comment was that I wonder how many unsatisfied customers there will actually be if any. There were only 800 boxes available and with the website issues I question how many new/novice collectors were actually able to make a purchase as opposed to people like myself who knew exactly what I was getting into and won't be disappointed regardless of the outcome.
I am no gambler let alone a degenerate one. I made my purchase for sheer entertainment value. At the very least I will end up with three coins with some value, and if I end up losing a few hundred bucks so be it. I drop more than that whenever the family and I go out to our favorite steakhouse, and when dinner is over all we have to show for it is a good time.
Philippians 4:4-7
Yes sir! Sure they won't. Just look at the reaction on YouTube to the unboxing video. Maybe you can go there and give them all a lecture about putting on their big boy pants after they post their whiny unboxing videos. I understand people, players and the game just fine. Thanks anyway.
As I said before, quoting the great Mike Tyson, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." We'll see just how many people graciously state that they got to play the game and lost, and are happy with the outcome, after they see just what they bought for $615, plus tax in CA.
My prediction is that less than 10% will be thrilled, another 10-20% will be okay, and 70-80% will be disappointed, if not outright pissed off. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. Let's see if you do the same, without whining about selection bias, or anything else, once you see the posts.
THIS
It depends on the game and my mood at the time, but I'm not certain that this is either of those two options, you forgot about the third option:
C. high probability of substantial loss, but not much gained if you win
Im not saying that is the case, but I'm not saying that it's not either. I haven't put in the work to analyze the possibilities, Im waiting to draw my own conclusions after I open the box and compare the results from others. All I'm saying is that I would hope that the amount of losers is balanced out by the amount of winners, and if we consider a box with an NGCX value of $800 to be a winner, then I hope that the real life resale value isn't too far off from that number. Ignoring the guide values and using prices that a coin could be acquired for in the marketplace, if most the "losers" win $200-$300 and most the "winners" win $300-$500 and a only a select few people win big boy coins that break even on the cost of the box, It would be unlikely that I would participate in the future. They're entitled to make a reasonable profit, but for me the question is how excessive are these margins vs the average margins on conventional sales of similar coins.
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To enhance resale of the coins they should of added to the label "From The Value Box Hoard".
I wasn't asking about in this case, just in general. And to be comprehensive, shouldn't this option be included, too?
D. high probability of substantial win, but not much lost if you don't
While everything is relative, that is kind of neither. The upside isn't millions, it's $23K. Not shabby, but not life changing either. Is that winning big?
OTOH, the potential loss is around $200-300. Not huge either, but pretty significant as compared to the $600 "investment." Especially when you consider that the odds of loss are huge. Around 80%.
Around 20% will break even or win a little. Almost no chance of winning big. Lots of hype around the potential for a $3-23K score. Little attention paid to the microscopic odds of that, although it was fully disclosed.
People slammed the website, it crashed and sold out fast. True FOMO degenerates are now paying whatever it takes on eBay to not miss out. The rest will be determined when they are delivered over the next few days. At least we won't have to wait weeks for the outcome.
A $23k win is "not shabby, but not life changing either", while a $200-$300 loss is "pretty significant" as compared to the initial $600 investment?
Let me guess... glass half empty, right?
oh, well in general I don't play to win, I play for enjoyment only. I like to think that I'm decent at Hold'em and I enjoy the game itself. Blackjack is fun when with a group, and a little action on a boring game makes it much more watchable. Never playing for profit, If I wanted more income i would just work more. The best part is that all provide a solid excuse to either leave the house or ignore my girlfriend for several hours.
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That's fine, and you are probably typical. You don't have to be suicidal over a $300 loss to not be happy. Will you be so entertained if you end up losing $200-300 that you'll keep going back for more?
Will you really consider it good value if what you have at the end of the meal is the thrill of competition on the website and 3 ASEs worth around $300? If so, then you and @jmlanzaf will turn out to be right and VaultBox will have invented a new way to print money.
I think there are all kinds of meals. Some are worth $600 and others are not. A fine steak dinner at Morton's, Ruth Chris, etc. will easily cost several hundred dollars for a family of 4. Paying $100 for a grab bag and ending up at Burger King wouldn't make too many people happy, even though they had a tiny shot at a $1,000 Kobe steak dinner. We'll see.
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You've heard of Las Vegas, right?
49
In general, yes! But that wasn't my point at all. I was just saying that, while this is like a lottery, it isn't to the extent that the upside isn't life changing, while the downside isn't a total loss. Plus, the $600 investment is a lot less trivial than $2 or so for a lottery ticket.
They did!
I stand informed. Shows you just how much interest I have in this bonanza of an offering.
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No. That was just the opening round. My evidence will be whoever posts unboxing videos. I have no idea what's going to happen. Neither do you.
My prediction is that most will lose, and they won't be gleeful about it when posting, because they played the game knowing the rules. They're going to be screaming about inflated values and crappy Instant Offers. We'll see, but that's what I see happening.
To quote my favorite Talking Heads song, you're talking a lot, but you're not saying anything, at least not anything new...
Philippians 4:4-7
Different people have different amounts that they're willing to risk. Do you think if Elon Musk wanted to play blackjack, he'd look for a $1 minimum table?
I think so. Bright lights. Pick pockets. $80 buffets? Is that it?
If so, yes, that's fun. Open a FedEx box and flushing a couple of hundred dollars down it? Not so much.
In the immortal words of @jmlanzaf, "You could have said it in 4 words."
No. If you haven't figured it out by now, I can't say anything in 4 words. 😂
In any event, a $20 scratch off is not a $600 mystery box. People don't buy them to be "entertained." They buy them in the hope of striking it rich. And yes, I think they are also making bad choices with their money.
Nope. I think he'd flush away $44 billion on Twitter, and then claim it was all for entertainment.
What's your point? That no one with real money would waste their time on a mystery box trying to score $20K, and that they'd make intelligent decisions with their collecting budget? That most people chasing this likely consider $600 real money? I agree.
Can't argue with that. There are about 600 posts on this thread, 25% (+/-) of them are yours.
Yup. I seem to be the guy everyone needs to engage with. Fine with me.
It's all good, everyone has been respectful, and lots of valid points have been made, on all sides. There is clearly a market for this. Whether or not people received good, or fair value, will be revealed in the next few days. Either way, the thread will die down and life will go on.
In the immortal words of @NJCoin, "No, I couldn't. I said it in exactly the number of words I needed." If I'm ever in the market for an editor, I'll be sure to keep you guys in mind.
My point? People have different levels of risk that they're willing to tolerate. Thought that was obvious from the context, but I guess not. Sorry for thinking otherwise.
IMO, it's presumptuous to think that your opinion of how to spend money is the intelligent one, it's condescending as well. Also, why are you assuming that people are using their collecting budget?
I was being sarcastic, but making the point that a wealthy person wouldn't waste their time on a low stakes lottery, so analogizing to Elon Musk was pointless. Since the money isn't life changing, I'm assuming $20K is a big deal to most buyers, in which case losing $300 probably will be as well. Not all, but many.
As far as presumptuous or condescending goes, I'm not sure how to respond. If pointing out that putting $1.00 into a box that is expected to return $0.80 is a bad financial deal is presumptuous or condescending, then I guess I'm guilty as charged. But I like to think of it as pointing something out to someone who maybe wasn't looking at things the right way.
Whether or not I was stating the obvious to those who played will be revealed when they post their results. If they lose and are satisfied, because it's what they expected going in, then you will be right. Otherwise, not so much.
As long as your figures are accurate, this isn't particularly presumptuous or condescending.
This is.
I've never seen someone so concerned with how people that he does not know spend their money. I get it he thinks it is a poor choice and a waste of money, but good grief how many times does he have to say it.
Philippians 4:4-7
Until he convinces everyone to not buy them?
We'll see. If people express surprise and disappointment when they open their boxes, then no, they weren't looking at things the right way, and I wasn't presumptuous for thinking so.
Only as many times as people feel the need to straighten me out. ALL of my posts after the first few have been in response to others.