@perkdog said:
A nice little boosted Profit bet to +100 odds for Steph Curry to drain 25 points for $50
He gets 21 🤣
NBA might be more infuriating than NFL
I haven't dove into the NBA betting pool yet. Wanted to get past the WS and Nascar action. Hoping for either Larson or Bell in the Chase Sunday. Bell being the better score. He will pay $65 for my $5 bet.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
the NBA is very difficult. i'm sure you guys remember me yapping about it last season. i've shot 3 air balls already. first night i bet on a team that blew a 20-point lead in the 3rd, then last night i took the big, bad Bucks who waltzed into 1-3 Toronto and never had the lead all night (i'm not exaggerating, when Toronto scored the first basket the game was effectively over), and then i took a stab on Chicago with Kyrie out and they folded in the final 5 minutes as well.
one thing i can't emphasize enough: no lead in the NBA is safe. i already mentioned Phoenix the other night. then last night the Clippers had a 19-point lead in the 1st against the Lakers and lost, and the Thunder had a 22-point lead in the 2nd and lost to the Pelicans. you basically have to bet on a team like Boston who is up by 87 points on the Pacers to have any sense of security. but then when you pair them with Milwaukee and Chicago you still end up losing. 😂
if you are a teetotaler the NBA will tempt you to belly up to a bar
@galaxy27 said:
the NBA is very difficult. i'm sure you guys remember me yapping about it last season. i've shot 3 air balls already. first night i bet on a team that blew a 20-point lead in the 3rd, then last night i took the big, bad Bucks who waltzed into 1-3 Toronto and never had the lead all night (i'm not exaggerating, when Toronto scored the first basket the game was effectively over), and then i took a stab on Chicago with Kyrie out and they folded in the final 5 minutes as well.
one thing i can't emphasize enough: no lead in the NBA is safe. i already mentioned Phoenix the other night. then last night the Clippers had a 19-point lead in the 1st against the Lakers and lost, and the Thunder had a 22-point lead in the 2nd and lost to the Pelicans. you basically have to bet on a team like Boston who is up by 87 points on the Pacers to have any sense of security. but then when you pair them with Milwaukee and Chicago you still end up losing. 😂
if you are a teetotaler the NBA will tempt you to belly up to a bar
...
I didn't want to say anything, but when I saw that you bet against the Mavs I didn't have a good feeling. It was just psychological. Kyrie wasn't playing. Yes. True. But the Rangers were playing with the chance to win the WS. And something told me that Luka would help find a way for them to win so that, per chance if the Rangers win, both Dallas teams would win.
I didn't want to say anything, but when I saw that you bet against the Mavs I didn't have a good feeling. It was just psychological. Kyrie wasn't playing. Yes. True. But the Rangers were playing with the chance to win the WS. And something told me that Luka would help find a way for them to win so that, per chance if the Rangers win, both Dallas teams would win.
but he's not the reason they won. easily his worst game of the young season. if someone had told me that Kyrie would score zero points (because he didn't play) and Luka would go 5-16 for 18, i would have lost more than i did.
the problem was Chicago allowing Tim Hardaway Jr. and your boy Grant Williams to do their best Reggie Miller and Ray Allen impersonations out there to the tune of 14(!) 3-balls between the two of them.
I didn't want to say anything, but when I saw that you bet against the Mavs I didn't have a good feeling. It was just psychological. Kyrie wasn't playing. Yes. True. But the Rangers were playing with the chance to win the WS. And something told me that Luka would help find a way for them to win so that, per chance if the Rangers win, both Dallas teams would win.
but he's not the reason they won. easily his worst game of the young season. if someone had told me that Kyrie would score zero points (because he didn't play) and Luka would go 5-16 for 18, i would have lost more than i did.
the problem was Chicago allowing Tim Hardaway Jr. and your boy Grant Williams to do their best Reggie Miller and Ray Allen impersonations out there to the tune of 14(!) 3-balls between the two of them.
the NBA is brutal
Let me reformulate my opinion/statement.
When I saw that you bet against the Mavs on the same night that the Rangers had their closeout chance, I felt in my gut that somehow "Luka magic" would give the Mavs the win, just in case the Rangers won too. And Luka magic extends to games where he plays (relative for him) piss poorly but the Mavericks still win.
Honestly, at this point, I regret my initial comment. Lol.
When I saw that you bet against the Mavs on the same night that the Rangers had their closeout chance, I felt in my gut that somehow "Luka magic" would give the Mavs the win, just in case the Rangers won too. And Luka magic extends to games where he plays (relative for him) piss poorly but the Mavericks still win.
Honestly, at this point, I regret my initial comment. Lol.
Good luck! 😜😂🤷🤔🙃
i get what you're saying. hell it would have been much more effective (and much more expeditious) than my suspect analysis/approach.
Put $5 parlay on the overs in the Cinn,KC,Phil, tilts. At least logically the games have the ingredients to cover. But we know what logic accounts for in the NFL. So most likely will hit 2 of 3.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
here it is on Nov 3, 2023 and i am roughly at my break-even point. i went back over this odyssey and found my low and high points:
first bet: Sept 21, 2022
low point: Nov 22, 2022 (-398.38)
high point: March 17, 2023 (+1881.28)
currently: +3.76
suffice to say, it has been a tumultuous ride. but i could argue that the past 3 days have been the wildest, and it commenced with the commencement of the NBA season. i guess it should come as no surprise, considering my first hoops bet was placed on Halloween night. things got spooky that night and it has stayed that way.
on Oct. 31 i bet on a team that blew a 20-point lead in the 3rd quarter and gave up the lead for the first time all game with 1.2 seconds remaining and ultimately lost (Suns).
the next night i bet on a title contender (Bucks) that never once had the lead against a team that had lost 3 of its first 4 games (Raptors).
also that night i bet on a team (Bulls) that had the lead with 5 mins to play and lost.
and last night may be the best of all. i went back to the well with the Suns, thinking that they'd be a little perturbed about what happened two nights ago. quirky NBA scheduling inexplicably gave them a chance to right their wrong against the exact same team two days later. this time, one of their stars would be playing (Devin Booker). i really thought Phoenix would unload on the Spurs. they were 11.5-point favs right before tipoff. right on cue, San Antonio scored the first 13 points of the game, then built the lead to 27 in the 2nd quarter. but the gambling gods weren't done with me yet. the Suns came all the way back and tied the game with a little over 4 mins to play. i once again thought to myself, no way San Antonio wins. those baby Spurs were reeling, and surely Kevin Durant and/or Devin Booker would close them out and put the finishing touches on an epic comeback. then for my very last surprise, Victor Wembanyama said hold my beer, took the game over, and gave Durant & Booker a welcome to the NBA moment. and fittingly, the Suns never once had the lead in that game. 😅
a part of me felt like i needed a hard reset, and boy i got it this week. every time i have zigged the NBA has zagged. i'm sure there is at least one person reading this who is thinking to himself, "why does he continue to bet on the NBA?" well, the answer is twofold. first, i'm as stubborn as a mule. second, i love a challenge. i refuse to admit defeat. i wouldn't go so far as to say that the NBA defeated me, but i was being slugged and i needed to hear that bell. after last night's outcome, i heard it loud and clear. lol
now that i'm (roughly) back to where i started over a year ago, i'm going to hit the pause button on professional basketball. i obviously have zero feel for what's going to happen. back to football i go, but i'll continue to watch the roundball insanity from a distance. then perhaps i will tackle it again after i (hopefully) build up my b-roll again.
i hope this thread, my bets and my bloviating have provided entertainment in some dysfunctional fashion.
@galaxy27 said:
here it is on Nov 3, 2023 and i am roughly at my break-even point. i went back over this odyssey and found my low and high points:
first bet: Sept 21, 2022
low point: Nov 22, 2022 (-398.38)
high point: March 17, 2023 (+1881.28)
currently: +3.76
suffice to say, it has been a tumultuous ride. but i could argue that the past 3 days have been the wildest, and it commenced with the commencement of the NBA season. i guess it should come as no surprise, considering my first hoops bet was placed on Halloween night. things got spooky that night and it has stayed that way.
on Oct. 31 i bet on a team that blew a 20-point lead in the 3rd quarter and gave up the lead for the first time all game with 1.2 seconds remaining and ultimately lost (Suns).
the next night i bet on a title contender (Bucks) that never once had the lead against a team that had lost 3 of its first 4 games (Raptors).
also that night i bet on a team (Bulls) that had the lead with 5 mins to play and lost.
and last night may be the best of all. i went back to the well with the Suns, thinking that they'd be a little perturbed about what happened two nights ago. quirky NBA scheduling inexplicably gave them a chance to right their wrong against the exact same team two days later. this time, one of their stars would be playing (Devin Booker). i really thought Phoenix would unload on the Spurs. they were 11.5-point favs right before tipoff. right on cue, San Antonio scored the first 13 points of the game, then built the lead to 27 in the 2nd quarter. but the gambling gods weren't done with me yet. the Suns came all the way back and tied the game with a little over 4 mins to play. i once again thought to myself, no way San Antonio wins. those baby Spurs were reeling, and surely Kevin Durant and/or Devin Booker would close them out and put the finishing touches on an epic comeback. then for my very last surprise, Victor Wembanyama said hold my beer, took the game over, and gave Durant & Booker a welcome to the NBA moment. and fittingly, the Suns never once had the lead in that game. 😅
a part of me felt like i needed a hard reset, and boy i got it this week. every time i have zigged the NBA has zagged. i'm sure there is at least one person reading this who is thinking to himself, "why does he continue to bet on the NBA?" well, the answer is twofold. first, i'm as stubborn as a mule. second, i love a challenge. i refuse to admit defeat. i wouldn't go so far as to say that the NBA defeated me, but i was being slugged and i needed to hear that bell. after last night's outcome, i heard it loud and clear. lol
now that i'm (roughly) back to where i started over a year ago, i'm going to hit the pause button on professional basketball. i obviously have zero feel for what's going to happen. back to football i go, but i'll continue to watch the roundball insanity from a distance. then perhaps i will tackle it again after i (hopefully) build up my b-roll again.
i hope this thread, my bets and my bloviating have provided entertainment in some dysfunctional fashion.
the Browns should beat the Cardinals and the Saints should beat the Bears, and believe it or not I feel very good about the Pats this weekend. the Commanders have all but mailed it in this season, so if BB can't beat them at home then it's time for him to mail it in as well
@galaxy27 said:
the Browns should beat the Cardinals and the Saints should beat the Bears, and believe it or not I feel very good about the Pats this weekend. the Commanders have all but mailed it in this season, so if BB can't beat them at home then it's time for him to mail it in as well
+3.76
....
Are you trying to jinx the Pats' draft spot? We are holding on to the five spot by the skin of our teeth. As of this exact moment, your Chicago Bears have both the 2nd and 3rd pick in the draft. Is that not enough for you?
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
Put $5 parlay on the overs in the Cinn,KC,Phil, tilts. At least logically the games have the ingredients to cover. But we know what logic accounts for in the NFL. So most likely will hit 2 of 3.
I knew it. No logic in the NFL. Lost the KC game right off.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
Put $5 parlay on the overs in the Cinn,KC,Phil, tilts. At least logically the games have the ingredients to cover. But we know what logic accounts for in the NFL. So most likely will hit 2 of 3.
I knew it. No logic in the NFL. Lost the KC game right off.
I had a nice $25 parlay with Miami and Ofcourse that got shredded early on
@perkdog said:
A nice little boosted Profit bet to +100 odds for Steph Curry to drain 25 points for $50
He gets 21 🤣
NBA might be more infuriating than NFL
I haven't dove into the NBA betting pool yet. Wanted to get past the WS and Nascar action. Hoping for either Larson or Bell in the Chase Sunday. Bell being the better score. He will pay $65 for my $5 bet.
Bell out early with mechanical trouble.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
lost my one and only bet yesterday, which is not surprising at this point. thank you New England for not being able to beat a crap team that just gave away its two best d-lineman............at home, no less.
but then i compounded that by not pulling the trigger on the Bengals. very nearly unloaded 500$ on them, but didn't because, well, i was just a tad bit gun-shy.
and i told you guys that i wasn't going to bet on the NBA, but that i was going to monitor some of the games instead. well, yesterday i saw San Antonio plus 3.5 at home against Toronto. my insta-thought was, if i was up big and still betting on the NBA, i'd drop some serious coin on the Spurs. that was one of those rare wtf lines in my mind.
so what happened in that game, you may ask?
with 40 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, San Antonio was up by 18 points
final score: Toronto 123, San Antonio 116
i just feel the need to warn you guys if you wander off into NBA land.......it is treacherous territory 😅
@galaxy27 said:
lost my one and only bet yesterday, which is not surprising at this point. thank you New England for not being able to beat a crap team that just gave away its two best d-lineman............at home, no less.
but then i compounded that by not pulling the trigger on the Bengals. very nearly unloaded 500$ on them, but didn't because, well, i was just a tad bit gun-shy.
and i told you guys that i wasn't going to bet on the NBA, but that i was going to monitor some of the games instead. well, yesterday i saw San Antonio plus 3.5 at home against Toronto. my insta-thought was, if i was up big and still betting on the NBA, i'd drop some serious coin on the Spurs. that was one of those rare wtf lines in my mind.
so what happened in that game, you may ask?
with 40 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, San Antonio was up by 18 points
final score: Toronto 123, San Antonio 116
i just feel the need to warn you guys if you wander off into NBA land.......it is treacherous territory 😅
As I've said before the NBA is lunacy compared to the NFL, 95% of the time in the NFL when an opponent has a 20 point lead they will win.
The NBA? A 20 point lead going into the 4th period doesn't mean a thing.
Yikes! I had a $150 on the trigger for the Giants and last second I aborted, it wasn’t so much that I was thinking the Raiders were going to actually win but more of the fa t I had no business betting on a game with arguably the worst 2 teams in the league lol
that's actually not too shabby where the NBA is concerned lol
As I stated earlier, I am a small time bettor compared to the main contributors of this thread. I enjoy reading the comments and following along. I am not a stranger at all to casinos, it's just that legalized sports betting is hung up in the state legislature here in Missouri, so I have to go to Kansas to do live betting at the casino or for my cellphone apps to work based on the GPS location. Because of this, I just stick to nickel and dime bets because I don't want to be sweating out the results of a game or feeling like I HAVE TO MAKE A QUICK TRIP OVER TO KANSAS TONIGHT to hedge a bet or get some action in to cover something else.
I lost every parlay I placed on Monday. Besides the bet placed at the casino kiosk that I shared in the thread, I made 2 other NBA parlay bets. A 3 legger and a 6 legger. Both blown up by the Celtics overtime loss.
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I also hit just 24/25 on an NCAA basketball parlay of super heavy favorites, with my only loss being Michigan State in overtime.
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I usually only bet once or twice a week, only when I find myself crossing the state line into Kansas. I usually just place 3 or 4 active bets at a time, and usually only between $1 and $5 or I perhaps I just throw the change in my account on some parlay, like my 91 cent bet above.
I do step out on occasion with slightly bigger bets when I'm feeling like there is free money to be had, and I have been fortunate enough so far not to be wrong. I opened my Caesars online account last December with $200, had it up to $398 at my highest at the end of August, and am currently sitting at $260 with a bunch of open bets, including a +600 $50 futures bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (I'm at roughly $335 if you count all of the open bet action still as money in my account, even though they don't). I've been playing on house money since day 1 and winning my first bet. It's just entertainment for me, though, and don't want to bore people on this thread with my $1 parlays.
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i think i speak on behalf of all the degens here when i say you should definitely post your bets if you so desire. the amount matters not. i personally couldn't care less about that. i just love seeing what people plop money on. i obviously love the hits, and naturally i'm not fond of the misses whatsoever.............but let's not kid ourselves, everyone loves a good ol' fashioned bad beat story
post away bud if you so choose, the more the merrier i say
Too long of a post to quote you but to.your specific comment that was in bold your doing yourself a huge favor by not betting big since you can't use an app, like your saving yourself so many headaches, that would absolutely suck having to run out to hedge, I have trimmed down my bets to $25 and $10 plays more since I'm a parlay sucker and I get sniped by 1 loss nearly every time BUT I've been able to save myself by hedging on the app at my fingertips.
We don't care if it's a $1 bet or not. Post your plays that way you can join the "Sweating it out club" and we can all pump our fist to a win against the man and don't forget misery loves company lol
It was originally, after assembly, a +101 bet. Lol
A $5 bet would have paid me $5.05, but they were offering a one day only 100% profit boost on any wager placed on NCAA basketball, so it boosted it up to +202 and would have paid $10.10 plus my $5 back. Again - LOL!
But it was super heavy, heavy, heavy favorites. Yes, it's a lot of things that have to happen, and ultimately, one of the 25 didn't happen, but that's how I do it. Usually just small amounts going for "sure things". And sure things don't always come through.
My next trip to Kansas likely won't be until Thursday or Friday, and I'll probably use the Caesars app to do another NFL parlay, along with a NCAA football, NCAA basketball, and an NBA basketball parlay. Again, only $1 to $5 bets usually.
I mentioned earlier in this thread that Hollywood Casino is doing an NFL promotion this year where you have to bet $10 minimum at their live betting window or betting kiosk each week of the NFL season. If you are able to do it for all 18 weeks, they will deposit $1,000 in free slot play or $2,000 in food comps into your player's club account. Besides my own account, I'm funding the wagers and directing the bets for 2 other accounts, so I'm betting $30 per week in cash on NFL games. I am down $44.90 on that endeavor, but I'm halfway through the season and halfway to $6,000 in overpriced casino food. I will share those bets, too.
This is an NFL parlay that I placed on Monday with the early moneylines.
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And this is my NBA Conference Finals preseason wager.
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that's actually not too shabby where the NBA is concerned lol
As I stated earlier, I am a small time bettor compared to the main contributors of this thread. I enjoy reading the comments and following along. I am not a stranger at all to casinos, it's just that legalized sports betting is hung up in the state legislature here in Missouri, so I have to go to Kansas to do live betting at the casino or for my cellphone apps to work based on the GPS location. Because of this, I just stick to nickel and dime bets because I don't want to be sweating out the results of a game or feeling like I HAVE TO MAKE A QUICK TRIP OVER TO KANSAS TONIGHT to hedge a bet or get some action in to cover something else.
I lost every parlay I placed on Monday. Besides the bet placed at the casino kiosk that I shared in the thread, I made 2 other NBA parlay bets. A 3 legger and a 6 legger. Both blown up by the Celtics overtime loss.
.
.
.
I also hit just 24/25 on an NCAA basketball parlay of super heavy favorites, with my only loss being Michigan State in overtime.
.
.
I usually only bet once or twice a week, only when I find myself crossing the state line into Kansas. I usually just place 3 or 4 active bets at a time, and usually only between $1 and $5 or I perhaps I just throw the change in my account on some parlay, like my 91 cent bet above.
I do step out on occasion with slightly bigger bets when I'm feeling like there is free money to be had, and I have been fortunate enough so far not to be wrong. I opened my Caesars online account last December with $200, had it up to $398 at my highest at the end of August, and am currently sitting at $260 with a bunch of open bets, including a +600 $50 futures bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (I'm at roughly $335 if you count all of the open bet action still as money in my account, even though they don't). I've been playing on house money since day 1 and winning my first bet. It's just entertainment for me, though, and don't want to bore people on this thread with my $1 parlays.
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By all means keep reporting your hits/misses. Sounds like you are staying within your betting comfort zone. I like following the action results here. I'm small time too. I play $5 parlays. Past week I hit 2. I had 3 teams on 2. But both plays had a tie so my take was cut in half. Wound up to be $18 and$21 hits instead of $35 and $40. Good luck going forward. If you have difficulty using up your free food credit perkdog,Galaxy27,and I can help you out.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
As a rule, I really hesitate to involve myself in conversations about gambling. You can take this at face value, or call B.S, and I don't say this lightly or with any intent of braggadocio, but there probably isn't a person on this forum that has logged more lifetime hours in a casino from the player's side of the table than me, and even if you're a casino employee on this forum, I likely still have you beat.
If you're at all familiar with Harrah's Total Rewards/Caesars Rewards, I have been at a minimum a diamond level player, and not just barely, since 1996, and had a run of 6 years from 2008-2014 where I was a 7 Star level player. That likely means nothing to most of you, but those that know, know what it takes to hit those levels. I have logged some serious time.
Anyway, I will tell you that while luck certainly plays a factor in any aspect of gambling, to be successful, you need more than luck. Managing your bankroll, managing your emotions, taking advantage of opportunities, and taking wins when you can, in any fashion, no matter how small.
It is cliché, but it is the truth.
I really thought Missouri would be up and running on the legalized sports gambling very quickly once Kansas approved it. It was on the docket this past spring, but some nitwit representative decided to filibuster by reading from Ronald Reagan's biography until the session expired and the legislature went to summer recess. I'm not sure when it's coming up for discussion/vote again. I signed up for the Caesars app, with the intent of just beta testing some gambling theories so I'd be ready to rock and roll when I could finally bet from the comfort of my house once Missouri got in board with legalization.
I'm not trying to make a mockery of this thread, or the people that take sports gambling seriously, but hand to God, outside of a crap-ton of MLB and a few NFL games, I don't even watch the other sports that I bet on. I haven't watched college football since the 80s, college basketball since the 90s, and NBA since Kobe retired, and even then, I rarely did. That doesn't mean that I'm not informed, that I don't see highlights, or don't know trends, etc.
I certainly enjoy everyone else's posts on sports gambling topics, their analysis, etc. I'm just not sure that I'm going to be able to add much to the discussion unless you want to know how likely Trouty is to find himself in a slump based on his upcoming opponents.
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Here is a fun fact, 99% of the games I bet on i DO NOt WATCH screw that, I'm not putting myself through that hell, every penalty, flag and play sends me through the roof and it's literally just not worth it to me, I check cbssports for scores updates ect ect
Sports gambling is the most stressful thing out there in my opinion, your literally better off just placing your bet and going about your day and seeing the final results after the game played out. Ofcourse it's very good to keep tabs on the game incase you want to hedge like I did a couple weeks ago I think with Kentucky vs GT, I was able to put half my potential winnings on GT to win to still make my profit if Kentucky won, Ofcourse in a massive parlay Kentickt ended up losing and the difference in my win was like $40 so it worked well.
Setting limits with strict "Play" money is the only way to go.
In my 20's I learned the hard way racking up over 40K in CC cash advance debt betting $500, $1000 and $3000 type sports bet and weekly 2 hour trips to Foxwoods and it destroyed me, I went bankrupt in 1997 at 27 and learned my lesson the hard way. I didn't gamble or even watch Football again until 2005, since then I dabble with throw away money and it works.
Pay bills, save money, take care of the woman in your life and have low risk fun gambling with what you can afford is the way to go.
I don’t bet on games for over 30 years. I find it fascinating but learned my lesson. Not nearly as hard as perkdog
I realized there was no way I could figure out a system that worked for me. It’s truly amazing how the lines are so equal. Now my question is (since I’ve not gambled in 30+ years how does the money line work. I know it’s straight up no point just win or loose. When they say -4000 what does that mean for a $100 bet? I know the favorite is the - part. And what does it mean for a +4000 on a $100 dollar bet
Here you go with some heavy ML bets and how they look. As you can see it's extremely hard to make decent money on a big favorite with the Money Lines, that's why the spreads make it such a tough play
I don’t bet on games for over 30 years. I find it fascinating but learned my lesson. Not nearly as hard as perkdog
I realized there was no way I could figure out a system that worked for me. It’s truly amazing how the lines are so equal. Now my question is (since I’ve not gambled in 30+ years how does the money line work. I know it’s straight up no point just win or loose. When they say -4000 what does that mean for a $100 bet? I know the favorite is the - part. And what does it mean for a +4000 on a $100 dollar bet
Thanks guys
Martin
here's another example. on Sunday the Cowboys are 17-point favorites against the Giants. here's the current money line at my book:
Dallas -1700
NY Giants +900
when talking about the team that's favored, which in this case is the Cowboys, the money line is set up to where you must bet the amount shown in order to win 100$. in other words, if you want to bypass the point spread and simply pick the Cowboys to win (the money line), then you must risk 1700 if you want to win 100. bet 850 to win 50, so on and so forth.
conversely, the figure next to the underdog -- which in this case is the Giants -- is the amount you'd win if you wagered 100$ on them to win the game. if you bet 50$ and they win, you'd receive 850........so on and so forth.
Comments
Thanks to the Rangers for the World Series $ win.
I haven't dove into the NBA betting pool yet. Wanted to get past the WS and Nascar action. Hoping for either Larson or Bell in the Chase Sunday. Bell being the better score. He will pay $65 for my $5 bet.
the NBA is very difficult. i'm sure you guys remember me yapping about it last season. i've shot 3 air balls already. first night i bet on a team that blew a 20-point lead in the 3rd, then last night i took the big, bad Bucks who waltzed into 1-3 Toronto and never had the lead all night (i'm not exaggerating, when Toronto scored the first basket the game was effectively over), and then i took a stab on Chicago with Kyrie out and they folded in the final 5 minutes as well.
one thing i can't emphasize enough: no lead in the NBA is safe. i already mentioned Phoenix the other night. then last night the Clippers had a 19-point lead in the 1st against the Lakers and lost, and the Thunder had a 22-point lead in the 2nd and lost to the Pelicans. you basically have to bet on a team like Boston who is up by 87 points on the Pacers to have any sense of security. but then when you pair them with Milwaukee and Chicago you still end up losing. 😂
if you are a teetotaler the NBA will tempt you to belly up to a bar
...
I didn't want to say anything, but when I saw that you bet against the Mavs I didn't have a good feeling. It was just psychological. Kyrie wasn't playing. Yes. True. But the Rangers were playing with the chance to win the WS. And something told me that Luka would help find a way for them to win so that, per chance if the Rangers win, both Dallas teams would win.
but he's not the reason they won. easily his worst game of the young season. if someone had told me that Kyrie would score zero points (because he didn't play) and Luka would go 5-16 for 18, i would have lost more than i did.
the problem was Chicago allowing Tim Hardaway Jr. and your boy Grant Williams to do their best Reggie Miller and Ray Allen impersonations out there to the tune of 14(!) 3-balls between the two of them.
the NBA is brutal
Let me reformulate my opinion/statement.
When I saw that you bet against the Mavs on the same night that the Rangers had their closeout chance, I felt in my gut that somehow "Luka magic" would give the Mavs the win, just in case the Rangers won too. And Luka magic extends to games where he plays (relative for him) piss poorly but the Mavericks still win.
Honestly, at this point, I regret my initial comment. Lol.
Good luck! 😜😂🤷🤔🙃
i get what you're saying. hell it would have been much more effective (and much more expeditious) than my suspect analysis/approach.
couple of questions
why are the Spurs playing the Suns in Phoenix again lol
and why am i betting on this game after what happened two nights ago lol
+203.76
Damn you got some stones to.ho right back at it brother
Smash it!!!
Put $5 parlay on the overs in the Cinn,KC,Phil, tilts. At least logically the games have the ingredients to cover. But we know what logic accounts for in the NFL. So most likely will hit 2 of 3.
here it is on Nov 3, 2023 and i am roughly at my break-even point. i went back over this odyssey and found my low and high points:
first bet: Sept 21, 2022
low point: Nov 22, 2022 (-398.38)
high point: March 17, 2023 (+1881.28)
currently: +3.76
suffice to say, it has been a tumultuous ride. but i could argue that the past 3 days have been the wildest, and it commenced with the commencement of the NBA season. i guess it should come as no surprise, considering my first hoops bet was placed on Halloween night. things got spooky that night and it has stayed that way.
on Oct. 31 i bet on a team that blew a 20-point lead in the 3rd quarter and gave up the lead for the first time all game with 1.2 seconds remaining and ultimately lost (Suns).
the next night i bet on a title contender (Bucks) that never once had the lead against a team that had lost 3 of its first 4 games (Raptors).
also that night i bet on a team (Bulls) that had the lead with 5 mins to play and lost.
and last night may be the best of all. i went back to the well with the Suns, thinking that they'd be a little perturbed about what happened two nights ago. quirky NBA scheduling inexplicably gave them a chance to right their wrong against the exact same team two days later. this time, one of their stars would be playing (Devin Booker). i really thought Phoenix would unload on the Spurs. they were 11.5-point favs right before tipoff. right on cue, San Antonio scored the first 13 points of the game, then built the lead to 27 in the 2nd quarter. but the gambling gods weren't done with me yet. the Suns came all the way back and tied the game with a little over 4 mins to play. i once again thought to myself, no way San Antonio wins. those baby Spurs were reeling, and surely Kevin Durant and/or Devin Booker would close them out and put the finishing touches on an epic comeback. then for my very last surprise, Victor Wembanyama said hold my beer, took the game over, and gave Durant & Booker a welcome to the NBA moment. and fittingly, the Suns never once had the lead in that game. 😅
a part of me felt like i needed a hard reset, and boy i got it this week. every time i have zigged the NBA has zagged. i'm sure there is at least one person reading this who is thinking to himself, "why does he continue to bet on the NBA?" well, the answer is twofold. first, i'm as stubborn as a mule. second, i love a challenge. i refuse to admit defeat. i wouldn't go so far as to say that the NBA defeated me, but i was being slugged and i needed to hear that bell. after last night's outcome, i heard it loud and clear. lol
now that i'm (roughly) back to where i started over a year ago, i'm going to hit the pause button on professional basketball. i obviously have zero feel for what's going to happen. back to football i go, but i'll continue to watch the roundball insanity from a distance. then perhaps i will tackle it again after i (hopefully) build up my b-roll again.
i hope this thread, my bets and my bloviating have provided entertainment in some dysfunctional fashion.
Epic write up sir
I lucked out last night on the Wake Forest/Duke under 48
A few more legs to go, i will post results
perk i was hoping that you dropped some on the Spurs after thinking about it the other night
the Browns should beat the Cardinals and the Saints should beat the Bears, and believe it or not I feel very good about the Pats this weekend. the Commanders have all but mailed it in this season, so if BB can't beat them at home then it's time for him to mail it in as well
+3.76
....
Are you trying to jinx the Pats' draft spot? We are holding on to the five spot by the skin of our teeth. As of this exact moment, your Chicago Bears have both the 2nd and 3rd pick in the draft. Is that not enough for you?
~askin for a friend
I also played $10 on Toney for first TD
And another one, I had Godwin for 10 as well
i think you found your niche perk
i'm about to eat another one........New England looks terrible
I knew it. No logic in the NFL. Lost the KC game right off.
I had a nice $25 parlay with Miami and Ofcourse that got shredded early on
Time to start throwing darts or asking our cat who he likes.
I like the Giants for some reason and they are +,Money on the ML but I just can't seem to pull the trigger
Just darts throws for short money. I simply can't pick parlays so trying different approaches
I got CD Lamb for tonight
Bell out early with mechanical trouble.
Glad I didn't pull
the trigger on my G Men bet 😅
lost my one and only bet yesterday, which is not surprising at this point. thank you New England for not being able to beat a crap team that just gave away its two best d-lineman............at home, no less.
but then i compounded that by not pulling the trigger on the Bengals. very nearly unloaded 500$ on them, but didn't because, well, i was just a tad bit gun-shy.
and i told you guys that i wasn't going to bet on the NBA, but that i was going to monitor some of the games instead. well, yesterday i saw San Antonio plus 3.5 at home against Toronto. my insta-thought was, if i was up big and still betting on the NBA, i'd drop some serious coin on the Spurs. that was one of those rare wtf lines in my mind.
so what happened in that game, you may ask?
with 40 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, San Antonio was up by 18 points
final score: Toronto 123, San Antonio 116
i just feel the need to warn you guys if you wander off into NBA land.......it is treacherous territory 😅
As I've said before the NBA is lunacy compared to the NFL, 95% of the time in the NFL when an opponent has a 20 point lead they will win.
The NBA? A 20 point lead going into the 4th period doesn't mean a thing.
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things could always be worse 😅
https://nypost.com/2023/11/06/sports/giants-nightmare-performance-loses-nfl-bettor-330000/
Yikes! I had a $150 on the trigger for the Giants and last second I aborted, it wasn’t so much that I was thinking the Raiders were going to actually win but more of the fa t I had no business betting on a game with arguably the worst 2 teams in the league lol
@countdougIas
looks like you went 4-2 on your p-lay
that's actually not too shabby where the NBA is concerned lol
As I stated earlier, I am a small time bettor compared to the main contributors of this thread. I enjoy reading the comments and following along. I am not a stranger at all to casinos, it's just that legalized sports betting is hung up in the state legislature here in Missouri, so I have to go to Kansas to do live betting at the casino or for my cellphone apps to work based on the GPS location. Because of this, I just stick to nickel and dime bets because I don't want to be sweating out the results of a game or feeling like I HAVE TO MAKE A QUICK TRIP OVER TO KANSAS TONIGHT to hedge a bet or get some action in to cover something else.
I lost every parlay I placed on Monday. Besides the bet placed at the casino kiosk that I shared in the thread, I made 2 other NBA parlay bets. A 3 legger and a 6 legger. Both blown up by the Celtics overtime loss.
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I also hit just 24/25 on an NCAA basketball parlay of super heavy favorites, with my only loss being Michigan State in overtime.
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I usually only bet once or twice a week, only when I find myself crossing the state line into Kansas. I usually just place 3 or 4 active bets at a time, and usually only between $1 and $5 or I perhaps I just throw the change in my account on some parlay, like my 91 cent bet above.
I do step out on occasion with slightly bigger bets when I'm feeling like there is free money to be had, and I have been fortunate enough so far not to be wrong. I opened my Caesars online account last December with $200, had it up to $398 at my highest at the end of August, and am currently sitting at $260 with a bunch of open bets, including a +600 $50 futures bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (I'm at roughly $335 if you count all of the open bet action still as money in my account, even though they don't). I've been playing on house money since day 1 and winning my first bet. It's just entertainment for me, though, and don't want to bore people on this thread with my $1 parlays.
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@countdougIas
i think i speak on behalf of all the degens here when i say you should definitely post your bets if you so desire. the amount matters not. i personally couldn't care less about that. i just love seeing what people plop money on. i obviously love the hits, and naturally i'm not fond of the misses whatsoever.............but let's not kid ourselves, everyone loves a good ol' fashioned bad beat story
post away bud if you so choose, the more the merrier i say
(damn you Sparty!)
@countdougIas
Too long of a post to quote you but to.your specific comment that was in bold your doing yourself a huge favor by not betting big since you can't use an app, like your saving yourself so many headaches, that would absolutely suck having to run out to hedge, I have trimmed down my bets to $25 and $10 plays more since I'm a parlay sucker and I get sniped by 1 loss nearly every time BUT I've been able to save myself by hedging on the app at my fingertips.
It's tough business
And agreed 100% with @galaxy27
We don't care if it's a $1 bet or not. Post your plays that way you can join the "Sweating it out club" and we can all pump our fist to a win against the man and don't forget misery loves company lol
@countdougIas What would have that 25 game parlay have paid?
Martin
It was originally, after assembly, a +101 bet. Lol
A $5 bet would have paid me $5.05, but they were offering a one day only 100% profit boost on any wager placed on NCAA basketball, so it boosted it up to +202 and would have paid $10.10 plus my $5 back. Again - LOL!
But it was super heavy, heavy, heavy favorites. Yes, it's a lot of things that have to happen, and ultimately, one of the 25 didn't happen, but that's how I do it. Usually just small amounts going for "sure things". And sure things don't always come through.
My next trip to Kansas likely won't be until Thursday or Friday, and I'll probably use the Caesars app to do another NFL parlay, along with a NCAA football, NCAA basketball, and an NBA basketball parlay. Again, only $1 to $5 bets usually.
I mentioned earlier in this thread that Hollywood Casino is doing an NFL promotion this year where you have to bet $10 minimum at their live betting window or betting kiosk each week of the NFL season. If you are able to do it for all 18 weeks, they will deposit $1,000 in free slot play or $2,000 in food comps into your player's club account. Besides my own account, I'm funding the wagers and directing the bets for 2 other accounts, so I'm betting $30 per week in cash on NFL games. I am down $44.90 on that endeavor, but I'm halfway through the season and halfway to $6,000 in overpriced casino food. I will share those bets, too.
This is an NFL parlay that I placed on Monday with the early moneylines.
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And this is my NBA Conference Finals preseason wager.
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After Texas won the WS I played a 4 team parlay of 3 Texas college > @countdouglas said:
By all means keep reporting your hits/misses. Sounds like you are staying within your betting comfort zone. I like following the action results here. I'm small time too. I play $5 parlays. Past week I hit 2. I had 3 teams on 2. But both plays had a tie so my take was cut in half. Wound up to be $18 and$21 hits instead of $35 and $40. Good luck going forward. If you have difficulty using up your free food credit perkdog,Galaxy27,and I can help you out.
@BLUEJAYWAY
As a rule, I really hesitate to involve myself in conversations about gambling. You can take this at face value, or call B.S, and I don't say this lightly or with any intent of braggadocio, but there probably isn't a person on this forum that has logged more lifetime hours in a casino from the player's side of the table than me, and even if you're a casino employee on this forum, I likely still have you beat.
If you're at all familiar with Harrah's Total Rewards/Caesars Rewards, I have been at a minimum a diamond level player, and not just barely, since 1996, and had a run of 6 years from 2008-2014 where I was a 7 Star level player. That likely means nothing to most of you, but those that know, know what it takes to hit those levels. I have logged some serious time.
Anyway, I will tell you that while luck certainly plays a factor in any aspect of gambling, to be successful, you need more than luck. Managing your bankroll, managing your emotions, taking advantage of opportunities, and taking wins when you can, in any fashion, no matter how small.
It is cliché, but it is the truth.
I really thought Missouri would be up and running on the legalized sports gambling very quickly once Kansas approved it. It was on the docket this past spring, but some nitwit representative decided to filibuster by reading from Ronald Reagan's biography until the session expired and the legislature went to summer recess. I'm not sure when it's coming up for discussion/vote again. I signed up for the Caesars app, with the intent of just beta testing some gambling theories so I'd be ready to rock and roll when I could finally bet from the comfort of my house once Missouri got in board with legalization.
I'm not trying to make a mockery of this thread, or the people that take sports gambling seriously, but hand to God, outside of a crap-ton of MLB and a few NFL games, I don't even watch the other sports that I bet on. I haven't watched college football since the 80s, college basketball since the 90s, and NBA since Kobe retired, and even then, I rarely did. That doesn't mean that I'm not informed, that I don't see highlights, or don't know trends, etc.
I certainly enjoy everyone else's posts on sports gambling topics, their analysis, etc. I'm just not sure that I'm going to be able to add much to the discussion unless you want to know how likely Trouty is to find himself in a slump based on his upcoming opponents.
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Here is a fun fact, 99% of the games I bet on i DO NOt WATCH screw that, I'm not putting myself through that hell, every penalty, flag and play sends me through the roof and it's literally just not worth it to me, I check cbssports for scores updates ect ect
Sports gambling is the most stressful thing out there in my opinion, your literally better off just placing your bet and going about your day and seeing the final results after the game played out. Ofcourse it's very good to keep tabs on the game incase you want to hedge like I did a couple weeks ago I think with Kentucky vs GT, I was able to put half my potential winnings on GT to win to still make my profit if Kentucky won, Ofcourse in a massive parlay Kentickt ended up losing and the difference in my win was like $40 so it worked well.
Setting limits with strict "Play" money is the only way to go.
In my 20's I learned the hard way racking up over 40K in CC cash advance debt betting $500, $1000 and $3000 type sports bet and weekly 2 hour trips to Foxwoods and it destroyed me, I went bankrupt in 1997 at 27 and learned my lesson the hard way. I didn't gamble or even watch Football again until 2005, since then I dabble with throw away money and it works.
Pay bills, save money, take care of the woman in your life and have low risk fun gambling with what you can afford is the way to go.
I don’t bet on games for over 30 years. I find it fascinating but learned my lesson. Not nearly as hard as perkdog
I realized there was no way I could figure out a system that worked for me. It’s truly amazing how the lines are so equal. Now my question is (since I’ve not gambled in 30+ years how does the money line work. I know it’s straight up no point just win or loose. When they say -4000 what does that mean for a $100 bet? I know the favorite is the - part. And what does it mean for a +4000 on a $100 dollar bet
Thanks guys
Martin
@Martin
Here you go with some heavy ML bets and how they look. As you can see it's extremely hard to make decent money on a big favorite with the Money Lines, that's why the spreads make it such a tough play
A nice lil hedge that worked out
nice! ^
here's another example. on Sunday the Cowboys are 17-point favorites against the Giants. here's the current money line at my book:
Dallas -1700
NY Giants +900
when talking about the team that's favored, which in this case is the Cowboys, the money line is set up to where you must bet the amount shown in order to win 100$. in other words, if you want to bypass the point spread and simply pick the Cowboys to win (the money line), then you must risk 1700 if you want to win 100. bet 850 to win 50, so on and so forth.
conversely, the figure next to the underdog -- which in this case is the Giants -- is the amount you'd win if you wagered 100$ on them to win the game. if you bet 50$ and they win, you'd receive 850........so on and so forth.
-96.24
There is a lot riding on this game.
ETA: especially if the Cardinals join the land of the 2 win teams with a jolt from the re-emergence of your boy Kyler Murray.