@BLUEJAYWAY said:
Luck is so bad considering a gambling SHUTDOWN.
Admittedly, I'm not doing as well as last season. I try to gather some momentum and then get hit with yet another overtime loss in the Cavs game last night.
I'm still slightly up this season, but the amount might not buy a happy meal.
@bgr said:
That just means that they’re not setting legitimate lines then. Right?
It just means that for the most part the NFL is playing out as the betting markets have predicted. The lines certainly would affect the size of the sportsbooks' losses, but not the fact that the NFL favorites have been consistently causing the books to lose money for going on 3 years. If you're betting favorites and the favorites win, you're getting paid no matter what the line is. They can adjust the lines to try to get more money to come in on one side, but most people still go with the favorites even then, perhaps even more, when the line goes from -600 to -900.
I'm talking moneyline favorites only.
I know a lot of people look at one of the big favorites going down in particular week and think, oh, there you go, that's the moneymaker game for the books. Of course they rigged that one...
But it's not that big of a deal in the whole scheme of things when you're passively betting all of the favorites in 3 leg parlays. I'd rather lose a game with a big favorite in my grids than one that was only -120.
It's actually those -115 "barely favorites" consistently winning that's killing the books.
Try it yourself. Put together a 3 leg parlay of the biggest favorites that week. It pays what, -150? Then put a 3 leg parlay of 3 favorites at -115 to -130. Pays like +450. Which games do you think the books really want you to lose?
I mentioned it at the beginning of the year. I know that I mentioned it last year, too. I likely mentioned it the year before. The NFL favorites have for some time been winning at a rate that is a license to print money. You can say it's just luck, or an aberration, that the universe will shift and revert to the mean, and probably all of those things are true, but the fact is, with the results occurring as they have, you would have made a crap-ton of money just passively betting the favorites in a plethora of 3 leg parlays for the last 3 seasons. Flood the zone. Round Robin, even, if that's you're thing. Bet it up and bet it often.
It also doesn't hurt that I found this laying around a few years ago.
.
it's cyclical my friend.........only a matter of time before i start swinging at pitches in the dirt again 🤓
it's a very rare occurrence when a line gives me extreme pause, but that exact scenario happened last night with the Florida-Florida St game. without knowing a single thing about either one of those teams, i couldn't understand why an in-state rivalry game between two big schools had a spread that sizable (FSU was getting 19). that led me to investigate. i found nothing that warranted such a huge number, so i took the Noles & the points, and i tacked on a few more. sure enough, that game was decided in the final 30 seconds.
and then we have the OKC Thunder, as sure a thing as you'll ever find. well, they did lose one game, but even in the midst of that one anomaly they were up by 22 points at one stage. outside of that outlier, they've won every game they've played. i'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but even i know it's probably a good idea to park money on a team that rarely, if ever, loses. i'm betting on them every game they play until they eat another L burger, and only then will i slow down and give it some thought. they play the Lakers at home tonight. perhaps that will be loss #2, but that's a risk i'm definitely willing to take.
Comments
Admittedly, I'm not doing as well as last season. I try to gather some momentum and then get hit with yet another overtime loss in the Cavs game last night.
I'm still slightly up this season, but the amount might not buy a happy meal.
Let's try another one with a nationwide wagering handle less than 100 dollars.
6:00 game
UMBC ML
one more
-3245.33
It just means that for the most part the NFL is playing out as the betting markets have predicted. The lines certainly would affect the size of the sportsbooks' losses, but not the fact that the NFL favorites have been consistently causing the books to lose money for going on 3 years. If you're betting favorites and the favorites win, you're getting paid no matter what the line is. They can adjust the lines to try to get more money to come in on one side, but most people still go with the favorites even then, perhaps even more, when the line goes from -600 to -900.
I'm talking moneyline favorites only.
I know a lot of people look at one of the big favorites going down in particular week and think, oh, there you go, that's the moneymaker game for the books. Of course they rigged that one...
But it's not that big of a deal in the whole scheme of things when you're passively betting all of the favorites in 3 leg parlays. I'd rather lose a game with a big favorite in my grids than one that was only -120.
It's actually those -115 "barely favorites" consistently winning that's killing the books.
Try it yourself. Put together a 3 leg parlay of the biggest favorites that week. It pays what, -150? Then put a 3 leg parlay of 3 favorites at -115 to -130. Pays like +450. Which games do you think the books really want you to lose?
I mentioned it at the beginning of the year. I know that I mentioned it last year, too. I likely mentioned it the year before. The NFL favorites have for some time been winning at a rate that is a license to print money. You can say it's just luck, or an aberration, that the universe will shift and revert to the mean, and probably all of those things are true, but the fact is, with the results occurring as they have, you would have made a crap-ton of money just passively betting the favorites in a plethora of 3 leg parlays for the last 3 seasons. Flood the zone. Round Robin, even, if that's you're thing. Bet it up and bet it often.
It also doesn't hurt that I found this laying around a few years ago.
.
Am I mistaken or is Galaxy hot?
it's cyclical my friend.........only a matter of time before i start swinging at pitches in the dirt again 🤓
it's a very rare occurrence when a line gives me extreme pause, but that exact scenario happened last night with the Florida-Florida St game. without knowing a single thing about either one of those teams, i couldn't understand why an in-state rivalry game between two big schools had a spread that sizable (FSU was getting 19). that led me to investigate. i found nothing that warranted such a huge number, so i took the Noles & the points, and i tacked on a few more. sure enough, that game was decided in the final 30 seconds.
and then we have the OKC Thunder, as sure a thing as you'll ever find. well, they did lose one game, but even in the midst of that one anomaly they were up by 22 points at one stage. outside of that outlier, they've won every game they've played. i'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but even i know it's probably a good idea to park money on a team that rarely, if ever, loses. i'm betting on them every game they play until they eat another L burger, and only then will i slow down and give it some thought. they play the Lakers at home tonight. perhaps that will be loss #2, but that's a risk i'm definitely willing to take.