@galaxy27 said:
i opened my eyes this morning and was staring at the ceiling. i feel like doing something dumb today, i thought to myself. i think i'm going to add a little spice to my weekend by betting a lot to win very little.
Won the 4 team NBA parlay last night. I want to say that every game went chalk last night, but I'm not sure. On occasion, I've thrown a dollar down on a full slate of favorites at +5000 or whatever and had it pay off. I did not try it last night, though.
Here's my NFL bets for this weekend. Dallas has already won for me.
.
I didn't feel comfortable discussing gambling yesterday, but Eric liked this thread so I'm going to proceed now.
had a profitable day, but damn near lost my dumb bet lol. I felt great about the Niners and I felt great about Green Bay. my balls weren't big enough to take the Packers outright, but I grabbed the line and cashed. I didn't post that bet so I won't include it in my P & L.
Never more than 6 legs but I normally shoot for 4 or 5. Have to pick some higher odds legs (like Parker for 60+ yards) to get the payoff into the $700-$1k range for a $20 bet. I thought Parker, Evans, and Pittman were sure things so had them in a bunch of parlays. Of course, I thought the same thing about Tank Dell and he broke his leg without gaining a yard and A. Cooper (and he got a concussion).
I did forty $20 parlays (instead of my normal 30) and it paid off. But parlays can be a wasteland, I have had a few 0-fer weekends with 30 or 40 parlays and that makes you reconsider the wisdom of betting $600-$800 pretty quickly. Fortunately, I hit a big parlay early in the NFL season so I have had the cushion to be more aggressive with my betting. My biggest issue is over betting the Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday morning NFL games and then losing those bets and still doing a full set of 30 or 40 cards for full day Sunday.
I have also started only having one or two high variance legs (a WR or RB gaining a lot more yards than predicted) in each parlay. It cuts down on the amount you can win but after you miss a bunch of parlays because you thought a guy would get 70 yards when his over under was 52.5 (and he ends with 58 yards) you start hedging your bets more. I look at some of the lower O/Us and throw them in just so I am not only betting star players doing well. Because there is always a couple star WRs or RBs that have down games every week and I don't want that to kill every one of my parlays. I also only include one or two legs for any single game (unless I am betting SNF & MNF combo), it is just too hard to predict more than 2 things happening in a single game.
This is my first year doing the $20 parlay with 4-6 legs instead of $1-$5 parlays with 8-12 legs. While the initial outlay is higher, the wins are better with the $20 parlays and while I still get a bunch of losers when I miss a single leg it is not as devastating as missing one leg on a 10 or 11 leg parlay. That said, if I didn't win early in the year I don't think I would have kept up my betting volume if I had started with a 5 or 6 week losing streak.
Never more than 6 legs but I normally shoot for 4 or 5. Have to pick some higher odds legs (like Parker for 60+ yards) to get the payoff into the $700-$1k range for a $20 bet. I thought Parker, Evans, and Pittman were sure things so had them in a bunch of parlays. Of course, I thought the same thing about Tank Dell and he broke his leg without gaining a yard and A. Cooper (and he got a concussion).
I did forty $20 parlays (instead of my normal 30) and it paid off. But parlays can be a wasteland, I have had a few 0-fer weekends with 30 or 40 parlays and that makes you reconsider the wisdom of betting $600-$800 pretty quickly. Fortunately, I hit a big parlay early in the NFL season so I have had the cushion to be more aggressive with my betting. My biggest issue is over betting the Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday morning NFL games and then losing those bets and still doing a full set of 30 or 40 cards for full day Sunday.
I have also started only having one or two high variance legs (a WR or RB gaining a lot more yards than predicted) in each parlay. It cuts down on the amount you can win but after you miss a bunch of parlays because you thought a guy would get 70 yards when his over under was 52.5 (and he ends with 58 yards) you start hedging your bets more. I look at some of the lower O/Us and throw them in just so I am not only betting star players doing well. Because there is always a couple star WRs or RBs that have down games every week and I don't want that to kill every one of my parlays. I also only include one or two legs for any single game (unless I am betting SNF & MNF combo), it is just too hard to predict more than 2 things happening in a single game.
This is my first year doing the $20 parlay with 4-6 legs instead of $1-$5 parlays with 8-12 legs. While the initial outlay is higher, the wins are better with the $20 parlays and while I still get a bunch of losers when I miss a single leg it is not as devastating as missing one leg on a 10 or 11 leg parlay. That said, if I didn't win early in the year I don't think I would have kept up my betting volume if I had started with a 5 or 6 week losing streak.
Robb
i love this thread because you learn the method to everyone's madness. keep killing it!
As stated previously, I recently signed up for an account on the ESPN BET app. They gave me 4 $50 free bets for doing so.
I used the first one on a 4 leg NBA parlay at +213, mentioned earlier in this thread, which I won.
I used the second one on Tuesday night on a 15 leg NCAA basketball parlay at +124. I only hit 14/15 on that one, as Xavier, a -800 moneyline favorite, lost by 7 to Delaware.
I used the third one on a 5 leg parlay, with 4 NBA games from Wednesday night, and the 49ers to win on Sunday. The 4 NBA games all went my way.
.
.
The fourth and final $50 free bet, I placed on a 4 leg NFL parlay for this weekend.
.
Here's my 2 surviving $10 plays this week in the Hollywood Casino promotion. I lost the 3rd $10 bet right off on a 4 leg parlay that went bust as a result of the Steelers loss.
.
.
I'm looking to buy a Chiefs win.
.
I took home a profit of $989 Saturday at ultimate TX hold em by hitting a straight flush. I was holding the 5 and 3 of diamonds and the 4 and 2 came on the flop. So I told the dealer I need either the 6 or ace of diamonds and I actually got the 6.
The funny thing was I announced to the table that I hit a straight flush so the guy sitting in the third base spot got up to use the restroom as he had folded his hand. By the time the dealer had checked everyone’s cards and paid me the other player was back and didn’t miss a hand. He was dealt pocket queens and he said well I got back just in time. He loaded up and got the other 2 queens on the board. If he hadn’t made it back so fast the dealer would have gotten quads. 😛
So before I left the casino Saturday I checked the nfl games and thought I would put a twenty on Detroit at -3. Then I thought why because I just won almost a grand. So no nfl action for me.
I did think it was a pretty sure bet and of course they get upset by the bears.
@Darin said:
I took home a profit of $989 Saturday at ultimate TX hold em by hitting a straight flush. I was holding the 5 and 3 of diamonds and the 4 and 2 came on the flop. So I told the dealer I need either the 6 or ace of diamonds and I actually got the 6.
The funny thing was I announced to the table that I hit a straight flush so the guy sitting in the third base spot got up to use the restroom as he had folded his hand. By the time the dealer had checked everyone’s cards and paid me the other player was back and didn’t miss a hand. He was dealt pocket queens and he said well I got back just in time. He loaded up and got the other 2 queens on the board. If he hadn’t made it back so fast the dealer would have gotten quads. 😛
I liked Miami and the Packers ML but the odds just didn't excite me, I looked at parlays and everything else and just couldn't get myself to do anything so I threw $35 at Reed for first TD since Watson was out and Doubs doesn't catch a lot of balls
I liked Miami and the Packers ML but the odds just didn't excite me, I looked at parlays and everything else and just couldn't get myself to do anything so I threw $35 at Reed for first TD since Watson was out and Doubs doesn't catch a lot of balls
Nice score. Miami threw me out on 2 sheets.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Article stated the NFL checks the refs bank accounts. Not all devious "transactions" are done by check, as if an "exchange" would be done by check/PayPal LOL. Cash is still king. And would not necessarily wind up in a bank account. That's what mattresses are for.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
Article stated the NFL checks the refs bank accounts. Not all devious "transactions" are done by check, as if an "exchange" would be done by check/PayPal LOL. Cash is still king. And would not necessarily wind up in a bank account. That's what mattresses are for.
I know that the way it's portrayed in the article is comical, as if it's a sudden increase in the balance over a weekend is how they're going to catch these guys, but if their investigators are really on to them, it's going to be tough for your average Joe to launder large sums of money without them finding out, even if they only use cash.
For example, maybe they've spent $800 a month on groceries for the last year, either using a credit card or a weekly $200 withdrawal at the ATM from the account their paycheck is deposited. The dirty official says, you know what honey, here's $200 from my wallet, go buy groceries with that. And he does that every week. Suddenly, at the end of the month, the official's bank account has $800 more in it than it usually does, with no ATM transactions and no credit card transactions. Did the family just stop eating for a month?
Extrapolate this out to buying gas, or getting car maintenance done, or buying school clothes for the kids. It's going to be very easy for someone doing financial forensics to spot irregularities if the official and their family is suddenly changing their behaviors and the bank account is growing, or the bank account is staying the same, but they're suddenly driving nice cars and wearing nice clothes and eating at the nicest restaurants.
If they're being investigated legally, it's going to be pretty hard to avoid slipping up at some point, absent just stacking your money on a pallet in a storage facility for years, a la Walter White.
A local bookkeeper at a local business embezzled almost half a million over many years. She did not buy fancy furs,cars,trips etc. No one knows where the $ went. Is no trace in bank accounts, extravagant spending etc. Served her time. Is out and about. So as of now it's a mystery. If the $ is hidden must be difficult to resist temptation to spend it. May of been smart up until was caught. But will no doubt be monitored for the rest of her life
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Interesting comments about hiding money, I guess I've never really given it much thought nor have I been in a situation where I had to.
Apparently if you are under surveillance it would be tough but there are ways to make it difficult for a slam dunk case against you, I can say with absolute certainty that a casino would be the first place I would go to wash the money, outside of law enforcement a casino isn't going to cooperate with just anyone to look at cameras and other things to spy on a customer
Racetracks once were and maybe still are places where you could "wash" hot money and counterfeit currency. With cameras so prevelant today I would think it more risky an endeavor. And the counterfeit money marking pen has reduced a successful passing of bills.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@perkdog said:
Interesting comments about hiding money, I guess I've never really given it much thought nor have I been in a situation where I had to.
Apparently if you are under surveillance it would be tough but there are ways to make it difficult for a slam dunk case against you, I can say with absolute certainty that a casino would be the first place I would go to wash the money, outside of law enforcement a casino isn't going to cooperate with just anyone to look at cameras and other things to spy on a customer
If you are using a casino to "wash" the money, you still have to account for large sums, and pay taxes. In Missouri, any hand pay over $1,200 generates a W-2 with state taxes being withheld automatically, and at least in Missouri, any cash out of $10,000 in chips generates a CTR (cash transaction report), even if it's your own money you're buying in with and then cashing back out. And if you like to play with orange and purple chips, believe me, the casinos absolutely follow who they give those to and then who happens to show up to cash them out later. The Missouri Gaming Commission can get fine happy towards the casinos if these things aren't followed to a T, so they absolutely comply.
And I'm not sure the NFL is going to keep an official around that has an affection for "winning big at the casinos", for very long, anyway, if that's their excuse for coming into large sums of money.
feels like i just opened a Christmas present after that game, so i'm going to take those unexpected winnings and give it a shot with the Lions and my boys.......who are not playing bad football right now
the Bears were up 17-7 with 4th and 1 at the Browns 33 at the end of the 3rd quarter. Fields took the snap and ran right and had nothing but green grass in front of him. A Brown clipped him on the heel, he lost his balance, and he lunged forward and came up half a yard short.
and on the last play of the game, Fields threw a hail mary and Darnell Mooney had it right in his hands while laying in the end zone and somehow managed not to catch it
@perkdog said:
As furious as I am about Jamar Chase disappearing the Seattle W took away alot of salt from the wound
Chase was injured on a play in that game and isn't expected to play this weekend, either.
I know he got hurt, I don't hold that against him but that was in the 4th quarter, the first half he had very few targets and watching the game he was open a lot
@galaxy27 said:
apparently I'm too busy Christmas shopping and playing with posters and foam balls and Star Wars figures to post my bets and contest picks
Comments
Signed up for the new ESPN BET app, and got 4 $50 free bets to use by December 7. Here's my first one.
.
Thus just reeks of "Craving Action" 😄😄😄
Won the 4 team NBA parlay last night. I want to say that every game went chalk last night, but I'm not sure. On occasion, I've thrown a dollar down on a full slate of favorites at +5000 or whatever and had it pay off. I did not try it last night, though.
Here's my NFL bets for this weekend. Dallas has already won for me.
.
.
.
.
I just didn't have any confidence in the college games so I treaded lightly
I came close to putting $500 on Georgia and I'm really glad I didn't
I didn't feel comfortable discussing gambling yesterday, but Eric liked this thread so I'm going to proceed now.
had a profitable day, but damn near lost my dumb bet lol. I felt great about the Niners and I felt great about Green Bay. my balls weren't big enough to take the Packers outright, but I grabbed the line and cashed. I didn't post that bet so I won't include it in my P & L.
I really like the Cowboys this weekend
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Banner NFL weekend for me. Hit 6 of my parlays and still have 2 more alive tonight (need Kirk to get 70+ yards).
holy guacamole i just now saw this ^
how many legs for each of those?
dude if you had a 1-900 number i'd call it lol
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Never more than 6 legs but I normally shoot for 4 or 5. Have to pick some higher odds legs (like Parker for 60+ yards) to get the payoff into the $700-$1k range for a $20 bet. I thought Parker, Evans, and Pittman were sure things so had them in a bunch of parlays. Of course, I thought the same thing about Tank Dell and he broke his leg without gaining a yard and A. Cooper (and he got a concussion).
I did forty $20 parlays (instead of my normal 30) and it paid off. But parlays can be a wasteland, I have had a few 0-fer weekends with 30 or 40 parlays and that makes you reconsider the wisdom of betting $600-$800 pretty quickly. Fortunately, I hit a big parlay early in the NFL season so I have had the cushion to be more aggressive with my betting. My biggest issue is over betting the Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday morning NFL games and then losing those bets and still doing a full set of 30 or 40 cards for full day Sunday.
I have also started only having one or two high variance legs (a WR or RB gaining a lot more yards than predicted) in each parlay. It cuts down on the amount you can win but after you miss a bunch of parlays because you thought a guy would get 70 yards when his over under was 52.5 (and he ends with 58 yards) you start hedging your bets more. I look at some of the lower O/Us and throw them in just so I am not only betting star players doing well. Because there is always a couple star WRs or RBs that have down games every week and I don't want that to kill every one of my parlays. I also only include one or two legs for any single game (unless I am betting SNF & MNF combo), it is just too hard to predict more than 2 things happening in a single game.
This is my first year doing the $20 parlay with 4-6 legs instead of $1-$5 parlays with 8-12 legs. While the initial outlay is higher, the wins are better with the $20 parlays and while I still get a bunch of losers when I miss a single leg it is not as devastating as missing one leg on a 10 or 11 leg parlay. That said, if I didn't win early in the year I don't think I would have kept up my betting volume if I had started with a 5 or 6 week losing streak.
Robb
i love this thread because you learn the method to everyone's madness. keep killing it!
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
+335.93
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
As stated previously, I recently signed up for an account on the ESPN BET app. They gave me 4 $50 free bets for doing so.
I used the first one on a 4 leg NBA parlay at +213, mentioned earlier in this thread, which I won.
I used the second one on Tuesday night on a 15 leg NCAA basketball parlay at +124. I only hit 14/15 on that one, as Xavier, a -800 moneyline favorite, lost by 7 to Delaware.
I used the third one on a 5 leg parlay, with 4 NBA games from Wednesday night, and the 49ers to win on Sunday. The 4 NBA games all went my way.
.
.
The fourth and final $50 free bet, I placed on a 4 leg NFL parlay for this weekend.
.
Huge night
My buddy told me he got info that the Bruins were dealing with a bunch of guys being sick so threw a little dart at Buffalo
The entire planet was thinking Pittsburgh and the Under so.i decided to go the other way.
nothing like a cool grand night 🤑
awesome dude! 🍾
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Here's my 2 surviving $10 plays this week in the Hollywood Casino promotion. I lost the 3rd $10 bet right off on a 4 leg parlay that went bust as a result of the Steelers loss.
.
.
I'm looking to buy a Chiefs win.
.
a telltale sign you've been drinking is when you put a bet in for 72.01
+235.93
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
trying to get back to an even 300
+295.08
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I took home a profit of $989 Saturday at ultimate TX hold em by hitting a straight flush. I was holding the 5 and 3 of diamonds and the 4 and 2 came on the flop. So I told the dealer I need either the 6 or ace of diamonds and I actually got the 6.
The funny thing was I announced to the table that I hit a straight flush so the guy sitting in the third base spot got up to use the restroom as he had folded his hand. By the time the dealer had checked everyone’s cards and paid me the other player was back and didn’t miss a hand. He was dealt pocket queens and he said well I got back just in time. He loaded up and got the other 2 queens on the board. If he hadn’t made it back so fast the dealer would have gotten quads. 😛
So before I left the casino Saturday I checked the nfl games and thought I would put a twenty on Detroit at -3. Then I thought why because I just won almost a grand. So no nfl action for me.
I did think it was a pretty sure bet and of course they get upset by the bears.
Awesome job!!!
i am 100,000,000% convinced that my bet is why the last 4 1/2 minutes of Miami-Tennessee happened the way it did 😂
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I liked Miami and the Packers ML but the odds just didn't excite me, I looked at parlays and everything else and just couldn't get myself to do anything so I threw $35 at Reed for first TD since Watson was out and Doubs doesn't catch a lot of balls
Nice score. Miami threw me out on 2 sheets.
$30 free bet from Caesars.
Already hit the first 2 legs.
.
My $10 NFL bets for the Hollywood Casino promotion.
.
.
Always trying to buy a Chiefs win.
.
+250.80
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ex-nfl-vp-of-officiating-says-nfl-refs-have-been-approached-about-manipulating-games-for-gambling-purposes/
Very interesting read
Article stated the NFL checks the refs bank accounts. Not all devious "transactions" are done by check, as if an "exchange" would be done by check/PayPal LOL. Cash is still king. And would not necessarily wind up in a bank account. That's what mattresses are for.
I know that the way it's portrayed in the article is comical, as if it's a sudden increase in the balance over a weekend is how they're going to catch these guys, but if their investigators are really on to them, it's going to be tough for your average Joe to launder large sums of money without them finding out, even if they only use cash.
For example, maybe they've spent $800 a month on groceries for the last year, either using a credit card or a weekly $200 withdrawal at the ATM from the account their paycheck is deposited. The dirty official says, you know what honey, here's $200 from my wallet, go buy groceries with that. And he does that every week. Suddenly, at the end of the month, the official's bank account has $800 more in it than it usually does, with no ATM transactions and no credit card transactions. Did the family just stop eating for a month?
Extrapolate this out to buying gas, or getting car maintenance done, or buying school clothes for the kids. It's going to be very easy for someone doing financial forensics to spot irregularities if the official and their family is suddenly changing their behaviors and the bank account is growing, or the bank account is staying the same, but they're suddenly driving nice cars and wearing nice clothes and eating at the nicest restaurants.
If they're being investigated legally, it's going to be pretty hard to avoid slipping up at some point, absent just stacking your money on a pallet in a storage facility for years, a la Walter White.
A local bookkeeper at a local business embezzled almost half a million over many years. She did not buy fancy furs,cars,trips etc. No one knows where the $ went. Is no trace in bank accounts, extravagant spending etc. Served her time. Is out and about. So as of now it's a mystery. If the $ is hidden must be difficult to resist temptation to spend it. May of been smart up until was caught. But will no doubt be monitored for the rest of her life
Interesting comments about hiding money, I guess I've never really given it much thought nor have I been in a situation where I had to.
Apparently if you are under surveillance it would be tough but there are ways to make it difficult for a slam dunk case against you, I can say with absolute certainty that a casino would be the first place I would go to wash the money, outside of law enforcement a casino isn't going to cooperate with just anyone to look at cameras and other things to spy on a customer
Racetracks once were and maybe still are places where you could "wash" hot money and counterfeit currency. With cameras so prevelant today I would think it more risky an endeavor. And the counterfeit money marking pen has reduced a successful passing of bills.
If you are using a casino to "wash" the money, you still have to account for large sums, and pay taxes. In Missouri, any hand pay over $1,200 generates a W-2 with state taxes being withheld automatically, and at least in Missouri, any cash out of $10,000 in chips generates a CTR (cash transaction report), even if it's your own money you're buying in with and then cashing back out. And if you like to play with orange and purple chips, believe me, the casinos absolutely follow who they give those to and then who happens to show up to cash them out later. The Missouri Gaming Commission can get fine happy towards the casinos if these things aren't followed to a T, so they absolutely comply.
And I'm not sure the NFL is going to keep an official around that has an affection for "winning big at the casinos", for very long, anyway, if that's their excuse for coming into large sums of money.
Greed usually trips up many a thief.
feels like i just opened a Christmas present after that game, so i'm going to take those unexpected winnings and give it a shot with the Lions and my boys.......who are not playing bad football right now
+311.41
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
the Bears were up 17-7 with 4th and 1 at the Browns 33 at the end of the 3rd quarter. Fields took the snap and ran right and had nothing but green grass in front of him. A Brown clipped him on the heel, he lost his balance, and he lunged forward and came up half a yard short.
and on the last play of the game, Fields threw a hail mary and Darnell Mooney had it right in his hands while laying in the end zone and somehow managed not to catch it
holy shit why do I gamble
edit: here it is
https://x.com/dave_bfr/status/1736497857534787851?s=20
+251.41
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
+351.41
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
This one straight up pissed me off, I got so aggravated I didn't even bet yesterday.
Freaking Chase is a ball magnet and it was the Tee Higgens show
$100 sweet parlay destroyed for no good reason except its a NFL same game parlay which apparently is the toughest thing on the planet to hit
As furious as I am about Jamar Chase disappearing the Seattle W took away alot of salt from the wound
Chase was injured on a play in that game and isn't expected to play this weekend, either.
I know he got hurt, I don't hold that against him but that was in the 4th quarter, the first half he had very few targets and watching the game he was open a lot
@perkdog i'm glad my loss was your gain last night!
+241.41
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
😆
.
@countdougIas
Wow!!
I don't think I've ever seen a 25 leg parlay hit before, like ever 😳
Regardless of the bet amount that is insanity
apparently I'm too busy Christmas shopping and playing with posters and foam balls and Star Wars figures to post my bets and contest picks
hope dueces' team doesn't let me down
+169.41
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Halfway there!!!
I haven't been betting much money the last week or so, Christmas is an expensive holiday so I been playing small this past week.
That $3 play left me questioning why I didn't do the standard $20 dart throw but a W is a W
+338.19
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
another p-lay with Philly tied in
+338.19
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
New England destroyed every single one of my NFL parlays this weekend by winning. 😥