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**** 2023 MORGAN & PEACE SILVER DOLLARS OFFICIAL THREAD****

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  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GRANDAM said:
    I have filled in the missing 2022 dates with Dan Carr Dollars. :)

    .
    Same here....along with the Fiji RP Peace. Dan's coins are beautiful. I especially love the 2022-CC Morgan, which graded MS70 PL at ANACS.

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Another big move in the Morgan and Peace proof subscriptions over the past 24 hours. (the average change over the past couple of weeks has been about 200 new subs each)

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • HoneyMarketHoneyMarket Posts: 806 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 12, 2023 11:03AM

    Rcvd an e-mail this morning from PFS Buyers club. They are surveying to see how many coins people have subscribed to.

    That in itself may drive others to start looking at the Mint's website and further increase the subscriptions for the remaining pieces over the next few days. It will be interesting to see if the numbers move much.

    Of course, once the miles and points bloggers start writing about it, prompted by PFS Buyers Club, there will be more interest. If that happens, the available subscriptions for the Proofs will soon fall dramatically IMO.

    BST references available on request

  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 12, 2023 2:01PM

    My prediction is that the remaining subscription proofs will all be spoken for within the next 2 weeks...or even sooner.

  • OnastoneOnastone Posts: 3,935 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GRANDAM said:

    I have filled in the missing 2022 dates with Dan Carr Dollars. :)

    Me too!!!! I thought that was a cool idea!~

  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @RichR said:
    My prediction is that the remaining subscription proofs will all be spoken for within the next 2 weeks...or even sooner.

    True - if the rate of new subs over the last 48 hours holds up.
    OTOH, if using the avg of the last two weeks, it will take 43 days for the Morgan proofs and 73 days for the Peace proofs to fill up.
    Likely something in between.

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Any revised numbers to post re the remaining proofs?

  • erscoloerscolo Posts: 574 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Awhile back , April I think, I deactivated all my subscriptions for these as I try to focus better on less items. I have never collected the Morgan or Peace Dollars. So one subscription of each was freed up at the time.

  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Thanks, SPalladino

  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Thanks for the updates. There will be lots of statistics to follow when these coins are released.

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭

    So...then...would anybody like to wager that when these are all fully subscribed...that the Mint decides to retroactively reduce the HHL???

    I can actually see that happening.

  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @RichR said:
    So...then...would anybody like to wager that when these are all fully subscribed...that the Mint decides to retroactively reduce the HHL???

    I can actually see that happening.

    I wouldn't bet against it, given mint uncertainties. That said, holding back 10% for day of release may mitigate against a reduction of HHL. And, the big unknown here is that we have no idea what the total number of "subscribers" happens to be, nor the mean and standard deviation for each subscription. If a low number of subscribers and a high mean subscription number per subscriber, then you are likely right.

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 19, 2023 9:17PM

    @SPalladino said:

    @RichR said:
    So...then...would anybody like to wager that when these are all fully subscribed...that the Mint decides to retroactively reduce the HHL???

    I can actually see that happening.

    I wouldn't bet against it, given mint uncertainties. That said, holding back 10% for day of release may mitigate against a reduction of HHL. And, the big unknown here is that we have no idea what the total number of "subscribers" happens to be, nor the mean and standard deviation for each subscription. If a low number of subscribers and a high mean subscription number per subscriber, then you are likely right.

    And I wouldn't bet on it, given how long it took us to get here. Everyone has had plenty of notice, and plenty of time to order, and they are certainly making enough to meet reasonable levels of demand.

    Under these circumstances, there is no justification to reduce orders for those who took a shot and ordered early, in favor of those who came in literally months after they were made available, after an apparent sell out, crying that they missed out. Regardless of the mean or median number of coins ordered.

    Yes, the 10% hold back will mitigate. The fact that these likely won't be great flips will also reduce demand once FOMO dissipates upon release. If the Mint is smart, they'll stop accepting returns other than for defects (and I mean real defects, not "I need a 70 so a 69 is unacceptable") that will be replaced, not refunded.

    THAT would actually stop all the BS once and for all, and allow the Mint to get a handle on actual demand in order to try to satisfy it, rather than giving gamers free options, which end up messing with everything, creating feeding frenzies on release, followed by feast or famine on the secondary market.

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What's the latest scoop?

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Thank you for the up date

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 3, 2023 5:57PM

    The mint now shows pages for the uncirculated dollars for sale on release date. The Morgan shows a stock level of 261,240
    how ever the Peace shows stock level of " 0 " and says not available. Stay tuned for further updates.
    See how this ties into the statistics of SPallidino. Boom or Bust only time will tell.

    Obviously these numbers will be corrected due to the subscriptions but remember that "box of chocolates thing "
    the numbers will go round and round like a spinning wheel.

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 4, 2023 9:16AM

    @HATTRICK said:
    The mint now shows pages for the uncirculated dollars for sale on release date. The Morgan shows a stock level of 261,240
    how ever the Peace shows stock level of " 0 " and says not available.

    .
    Yes, it is odd, the difference in reported stock level on the release date sales page between the Morgan unc and Peace unc. Perhaps, because the Morgan unc subscriptions have not changed off of "0" at all for weeks, and the Peace unc will vary a bit from day to day (eg, 0 one day, and 3 the next) as folks adjust their subscriptions. Because of this low level of fluctuation in Peace unc subs, maybe that is why the Peace unc stocklevel on the release date sales page is reported as 0.

    As for the Morgan uncs, I thought that the number subscribed would be subtracted from the stocklevel reported on the release date sales page. It is clear that they are not, but perhaps that math will be done just prior to release.

    The take home from the Morgan unc stocklevel on the release date sales page (261,240) is that it is shy of the mintage limit of 275,000 by 13,760. That may be the number siphoned off for the ABPP. The ABPP supposedly had 10% availble to that program, which would be 27,500. If the numbers are to be believed, it means that the ABPP members only committed to about half of the number of coins that they could have accessed. ....and the balance were made available via subscription, or will be available on release day.

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭

    From May 27:

    2) The Peace unc and RP set subscription bounce between 0 subscriptions available and <5 available (with red add to bag button active) on a day to day basis. This is due to existing subscribers reducing their subscription number, and other (either existing subscribers or new subscribers) gobbling them back up.
    4) At present subscription rates, the Morgan proof might be fully subscribed in mid-July (release date August 9).
    5) At present subscription rates, the Peace proof might not fully subscribe prior to the August 9 release date.

    .
    All still correct.

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • ManorcourtmanManorcourtman Posts: 8,022 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Subscriptions for the UNC Morgan and Peace dollars are not available. Subscriptions for the Rev Proof set is also unavailable on the website. We tried to get my Wife signed up for subscriptions but they show unavailable. Is this news or already talked about here?

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,324 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 6, 2023 4:57PM

    @Joe_360 said:
    While my initial reaction is to pass as I see no reason that they should continue after 2021, but when 2023 rolls around, I'm afraid that I will get weak, breakdown and purchase.. But truthfully, I see no reason to own these...

    I agree. They’re recycling the past in my view. Move on already.

    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Manorcourtman said:
    Subscriptions for the UNC Morgan and Peace dollars are not available. Subscriptions for the Rev Proof set is also unavailable on the website. We tried to get my Wife signed up for subscriptions but they show unavailable. Is this news or already talked about here?

    Old news...suggest you review: SPalladino weekly update on the subject

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Manorcourtman said:
    Subscriptions for the UNC Morgan and Peace dollars are not available. Subscriptions for the Rev Proof set is also unavailable on the website. We tried to get my Wife signed up for subscriptions but they show unavailable. Is this news or already talked about here?

    .
    Actually, "The Peace unc and RP set subscription bounce between 0 subscriptions available and <5 available (with red add to bag button active) on a day to day basis. This is due to existing subscribers reducing their subscription number, and other (either existing subscribers or new subscribers) gobbling them back up." (eg, the Peace unc and RP set each have subscription stock level and an add to bag button this morning) ...this day to day "sometimes full subscribed, sometimes a few available for subscription" will likely continue until July 13. The Morgan uncs, not so - they have been fully subscribed and have not come back available for subscription for more than month.

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭

    countdown is on to release date. The early birds at release should be able to score coins.

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • OLCOLC Posts: 401 ✭✭✭

    Thousands available now. Morgan Uncirculated. 2 Coin reverse magically have thousands available.

  • ManorcourtmanManorcourtman Posts: 8,022 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Nothing available now

  • cheezhedcheezhed Posts: 5,816 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Available again now

    Many happy BST transactions
  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 8, 2023 8:39AM

    Increases in the number of available subscriptions across the board this morning, with the Morgan unc, Peace unc, and RP set increases quite substantial.
    .

    .
    Possible reasons:
    a) large number of subscribers lowering their subscription numbers
    b) the mint reconciling their numbers (perhaps ABPP took less than 10% of the mintage limit)
    c) a bit of both
    .
    IOW, it is possible that the actual number siphoned off by the ABPP (line 3) is less than depicted above, and that the total number available to subscription (line 4) is higher than depicted above.

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • TxCollectorTxCollector Posts: 424 ✭✭✭✭

    @OLC said:
    Thousands available now. Morgan Uncirculated. 2 Coin reverse magically have thousands available.

    Wow, that’s a pretty big reversal. Those 2 coin sets have been selling on eBay for $340-500 lately.

  • MetroDMetroD Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 8, 2023 8:38AM

    Don't know how many, or for how long, but all five enrollment options currently show "add to bag" status.


    Link: https://catalog.usmint.gov/shop/subscriptions.

  • OLCOLC Posts: 401 ✭✭✭

    I know what it is now. They cancelled the orders over the household limit.. I had a bunch of them and they are gone now. FYI

  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Why would an individual/single entity attempt to subscribe to more than the household limit?

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 8, 2023 6:18PM

    [Why would an individual/single entity attempt to subscribe to more than the household limit?]

    Greed?
    Human nature?
    Typical coin collector?

  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭

    going fast Morgan Uncirc GONE Peace uncirc and two coin set less than 3,000 each.

    Did not take long for the friends & family to gobble up, however will this be a winner or a lot of people with unwanted coins ?

    Stay tuned. You will see the answer here.

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • 2021 Morgan/Peace dollars was the best idea the mint has had since Silver Eagles in 1986. Buying the 2021’s turned out great. The 175,000 mintage is the reason. The mint’s initial price for raw coins held up and 70’s killed it, especially D’s. But IMO 400,000 mintage will not allow for a flippers market. That said, I have a subscription set for 3 of each so I can grade into at least one 70.

  • @RichR said:
    [Why would an individual/single entity attempt to subscribe to more than the household limit?]

    Greed?
    Human nature?
    Typical coin collector?

    In my case I subscribed to 5 of each back in 2022. Then, forgetting, I had the subscription, I subscribed again for 3 of each. Can’t have two subscriptions and until I learned where the existing subscription info was on the site I thought the mint cancelled my subscriptions. But nope.

  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 9, 2023 12:05PM

    Wow...those numbers are ping ponging all over the place! What's up with that?

    We seemed to be on a pretty predictably glidepath until the plane smacked into a mountain with those 6/8 stats!

  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @RichR said:
    Wow...those numbers are ping ponging all over the place! What's up with that?

    We seemed to be on a pretty predictably glidepath until the plane smacked into a mountain with those 6/8 stats!

    Remember "The Mint is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you will get" LOL :p

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭

    [Remember "The Mint is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you will get" LOL]

    Well I guess that box of chocolates might be gone by the first day of sales...as least based on the latest data available...that didn't seem likely when this thread started.

  • Jzyskowski1Jzyskowski1 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Each day that passes in 2023 with zero winners as far as desirable releases.
    I’m going to guess that the pent up need for something, anything, to resemble a winner that these may show all the signs necessary and cause a buying crunch but I’m not so sure anything will be like previous years.
    Everyone will get one because there’s too many of them. Look at the womens quarters. The 3- roll set went from 7500 to 12,500 and bam, loss of interest.
    We’ll see but long run isn’t looking good.

    🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶

  • Jzyskowski1Jzyskowski1 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I was trolling around the website earlier and was greeted with this banner. So the mint is pushing these. I’ll keep my reduced enrollments and live with the possibility of missing out on the years “big winner “. Enjoy 🙏

    🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶

  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2023 12:25PM

    After the mint's increase in subscription availability five days ago, the Peace unc has once again reached 0 subscriptions available.
    There has also been increased recent subscribing for the Morgan proofs and Peace proofs. A current subscription rates, the Morgan proof subscriptions will likely reach 0 available in the next several days, and the Peace proof in the next ~3 weeks. (57 days, nearly 8 weeks until their release)
    .

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • djmdjm Posts: 1,561 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I was talking to Claudia at Coin Advisor today about these coins. She wanted to know if I was interested in getting some. I told her a had some on subscription. She asked if I was going to get them graded, I told her yes, I was but I would buy them from her if the price was right. She said they had not set a price yet. I told her I thought the price should be about $115 for an MS70 First Strike. She said she would get back to me when they set a pre-release price.

    What do you think the pre-release price will be?

  • coinercoiner Posts: 575 ✭✭✭✭

    Not $115. Too cheap. It will be north of there.

  • Jzyskowski1Jzyskowski1 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coiner said:
    Not $115. Too cheap. It will be north of there.

    Agreed. They will not be cheap. $149 or more. Thanks 🙏

    🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶

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