$10 a coin. Lot of risk for very minimal reward. No thanks.
How's your math skills? 😀 It's only $5! And, even then, it's more than triple what PFS is offering!
Just like the rest of us, He's just still in disbelief that the mint raised their prices as much as they did!!
Does anyone remember the original price of these was supposed to be $67 when we all signed up for these subscriptions and then the Mint did a switch-a-roo on the price and jacked it up toe $76!
Maybe the actual price is still only $67, but the Mint employee in charge of the website is dyslexic?
$10 a coin. Lot of risk for very minimal reward. No thanks.
How's your math skills? 😀 It's only $5! And, even then, it's more than triple what PFS is offering!
Just like the rest of us, He's just still in disbelief that the mint raised their prices as much as they did!!
Does anyone remember the original price of these was supposed to be $67 when we all signed up for these subscriptions and then the Mint did a switch-a-roo on the price and jacked it up toe $76!
Maybe the actual price is still only $67, but the Mint employee in charge of the website is dyslexic?
While always a fan of wishful thinking I’m not going to hold my breath waiting on the United States Mint to lower prices 😂😂😂
Thanks 🙏
I just subscribed to the 2023 Morgan and Peace Reverse Proof set and Peace Proof coin. Thanks to the owner of this thread and everyone else who posted here.
I got 1 proof of each, (and accidentally subscribed for a 2024 eagle ) and I hope them to be undamaged and on time, which seems too much to ask right now.
Type collector, mainly into Seated. -formerly Ownerofawheatiehorde. Good BST transactions with: mirabela, OKCC, MICHAELDIXON, Gerard
I don't see the Morgan and Peace as flippable for the average person.
$76 + 49ish grading = $125 + seller fees and shipping.
I see Pinehurst selling ngc ms70's for $150
nothing wrong with speculating, and trying to get 70's your self though.
I'll buy a few raw and then just buy 70's on the market if needed.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Well as they say, buy the coin and not the plastic. I will be buying raw coins and will keep them in my collection in the original box and packaging. I am looking forward to getting these from the mint.
I replied previously, "sort of", with the net effect of those decreasing subscriptions numbers versus those absorbing more being about zero. With 9 days to go until the release of the uncs (6 days to go until subscriptions get locked), it appears that the net effect has shifted to rising stocklevels for subscriptions...particularly sudden jumps in stocklevels for the Morgan and Peace proof subscriptions.
The Morgan unc and the RP set seem to be holding to a near-zero net.
.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Thank you @Steve Palladino
Have a wonderful day. We’re off to the “big” parade up here in cow town. And then off to the park for our 4th celebration. Complete with a genuine big city type flyover. With them new fangled jet 🛩 airy planes. Big rodeo last night even had fireworks 🎆 🤠🧨
@jeffas1974 said:
I was definitely skeptical on whether or not they over produced these but yeah I'd agree with the above assuming we don't see a massive dump of subscriptions ahead of the release dates. I do wonder where they'd be at if the mint hadn't increased the HHL's up to 25 for the non-reverse proof set issues.
What I'm most surprised about are the folks on eBay that are more than happy to pre-order the 2 coin sets between $350-400 on average.
That is no suprise, and never should be. P.T. Barnum got it right, and we see that every day, and not just with coins.
What I'm most surprised about are the folks on eBay that are more than happy to pre-order the 2 coin sets between $350-400 on average.
I'm not at all sure that many people are even aware that they can order directly from the Mint.
That hadn't even crossed my mind but yeah it makes sense.
Might explain the 2023 proof set and other items for sale on eBay at a premium over currently available product. The W ase proofs and congratulations set comes to mind.
Yup. Interesting catch. Thanks 🙏
@Jzyskowski1 said:
Thank you @Steve Palladino
Have a wonderful day. We’re off to the “big” parade up here in cow town. And then off to the park for our 4th celebration. Complete with a genuine big city type flyover. With them new fangled jet 🛩 airy planes. Big rodeo last night even had fireworks 🎆 🤠🧨
What? No range chickens?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@Jzyskowski1 said:
Thank you @Steve Palladino
Have a wonderful day. We’re off to the “big” parade up here in cow town. And then off to the park for our 4th celebration. Complete with a genuine big city type flyover. With them new fangled jet 🛩 airy planes. Big rodeo last night even had fireworks 🎆 🤠🧨
I replied previously, "sort of", with the net effect of those decreasing subscriptions numbers versus those absorbing more being about zero. With 9 days to go until the release of the uncs (6 days to go until subscriptions get locked), it appears that the net effect has shifted to rising stocklevels for subscriptions...particularly sudden jumps in stocklevels for the Morgan and Peace proof subscriptions.
The Morgan unc and the RP set seem to be holding to a near-zero net.
.
With all due respect, at this point none of this is going to matter. Given the demand for the graded slabs, and the fact that dealers are willing to pay slightly above retail to secure additional inventory, anything that does not sell upon release will be snapped up by dealers 24 hours later.
They must be getting some great pricing from the TPGs, perhaps spurred on by competition from the new guys, because the retail price seems too good to be true. Either way, it's impossible for dealers to resist an easy double, less whatever they are paying to grade, so sellouts are inevitable, even with 400K mintages, if 70s can be sold for $150.
What I'm most surprised about are the folks on eBay that are more than happy to pre-order the 2 coin sets between $350-400 on average.
I'm not at all sure that many people are even aware that they can order directly from the Mint.
That hadn't even crossed my mind but yeah it makes sense.
Might explain the 2023 proof set and other items for sale on eBay at a premium over currently available product. The W ase proofs and congratulations set comes to mind.
Yup. Interesting catch. Thanks 🙏
Asking price =/= completed sales. Are any actually selling at those prices?
If not, the mere fact that they are offered does not mean people do not realize they can buy them directly from the Mint at a lower price. Lots of things, not just coins, are offered on eBay at inflated prices.
Doesn't mean they result in sales. Most of the inflated listings do not. And, if they do, it could be someone using a coupon, or, sure, possibly someone not knowing what they are doing. That's always the dream for someone stuck with inventory looking to unload it on someone.
Yup. You are correct.
My examples are not for if they sold any. It’s merely an example of things available at the mint and eBay offering the same product. Not so much what their making or if they are selling. Just the fact they are available. Thanks 🙏
@NJCoin said:
With all due respect, at this point none of this is going to matter. Given the demand for the graded slabs, and the fact that dealers are willing to pay slightly above retail to secure additional inventory, anything that does not sell upon release will be snapped up by dealers 24 hours later.
.
With due respect much appreciated, once again I do this for my entertainment - appealing to my curiosity of what is happening to subscription stocklevels now, day to day. Of course the information that I post will not matter one bit at 24 hours after the release....maybe it will matter leading into the next release and then the next.
.
They must be getting some great pricing from the TPGs, perhaps spurred on by competition from the new guys, because the retail price seems too good to be true. Either way, it's impossible for dealers to resist an easy double, less whatever they are paying to grade, so sellouts are inevitable, even with 400K mintages, if 70s can be sold for $150.
.
No disagreement. We danced around this a bit before, but besides that "They must be getting some great pricing from the TPGs", the might also be getting a nudge nudge wink wink for a high percentage of 70s. Given what you are postulating, 69s will end up valued at close to melt.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@NJCoin said:
With all due respect, at this point none of this is going to matter. Given the demand for the graded slabs, and the fact that dealers are willing to pay slightly above retail to secure additional inventory, anything that does not sell upon release will be snapped up by dealers 24 hours later.
.
With due respect much appreciated, once again I do this for my entertainment - appealing to my curiosity of what is happening to subscription stocklevels now, day to day. Of course the information that I post will not matter one bit at 24 hours after the release....maybe it will matter leading into the next release and then the next.
.
They must be getting some great pricing from the TPGs, perhaps spurred on by competition from the new guys, because the retail price seems too good to be true. Either way, it's impossible for dealers to resist an easy double, less whatever they are paying to grade, so sellouts are inevitable, even with 400K mintages, if 70s can be sold for $150.
.
No disagreement. We danced around this a bit before, but besides that "They must be getting some great pricing from the TPGs", the might be getting a nudge nudge wink wink for a high percentage of 70s. Given what you are postulating, 69s will end up valued at close to melt.
Totally! Probably not quite melt, but almost certainly less than original issue price, given how many there are and what the 70s are selling for. And that's assuming they even accept the 69s, versus just having them be returned raw. Depends on their deals with the TPGs, and how much it would cost to have the coin slabbed 69 versus returned raw.
for those not collecting these in 70, now is a good time to start.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Well here’s news. I’m not certain it’s good news. But it’s news. There is talk of doubling your money? Doesn’t look like it. Thanks 🙏
Random listing. Not an endorsement
I plan to keep at least one sealed box for each of the 5 issues and will consider selling them as a group. If they don't sell, I will just make room for them in my safe.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
@Jzyskowski1 said:
Well here’s news. I’m not certain it’s good news. But it’s news. There is talk of doubling your money? Doesn’t look like it. Thanks 🙏
Random listing. Not an endorsement
Not really news, and any talk of anyone doubling money is ill-informed when graded MS70s are widely available at double the issue price. They are certainly very popular, and will probably hold their value, but they are not going to be home runs for flippers. $105 raw is probably wishful thinking for that seller, since they are likely to be available directly from the Mint for $76.
@NJCoin said:
...but they are not going to be home runs for flippers. $105 raw is probably wishful thinking for that seller, since they are likely to be available directly from the Mint for $76.
.
This one is a case in point regarding flipping these. Acquisition cost may be > $76 (if still paying shipping). Selling/shipping costs maybe $10-15. Not much meat left on that bone. ...I suppose the seller is trying to get more than the $5 being offered by, for example, Pinehurst. Definitely far from a flipper's paradise. (especially given that there are 282 Peace unc subscriptions available today, 5 days out from the lockout date, and then another ~27,500 available on the release date)
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@Jzyskowski1 said:
There’s fixin to be another one of each as I seriously consider dumping back down to one each. 🤠
My strong advice is to just buy as many as you genuinely want to keep. I doubt you are going to get hurt on them, but don't buy any with the intent to flip, maybe to pay for what you are keeping.
This issue just doesn't lend itself to that, based on HHLs, mintages, and the fact that dealers seems to be getting as many as they need in order to turn around and sell MS70s for around $150. That does not leave any room for a small timer to buy at $76 and sell for a reasonable profit.
That could change if there is a sudden flurry of demand next week, followed by an instant sell-out and increasing premiums on eBay, but that seems VERY unlikely. More likely is that lots of people are going to buy 25 with the intent to flip, and that they will dump them when the big secondary market fails to materialize. Dealers will step in to scoop them up, and the market will stabilize, since they can apparently have them graded inexpensively enough that they can sell an unlimited amount at a price that guarantees them a return.
The offer at $105 is a shot in the dark to see what happens. Nothing is going to happen. There are going to be a ton of them available slightly above $76 next week, and they will sit until the Mint sells out, at which point they will sell for whatever dealers are willing to pay. Which will be little or nothing above $76, and might very well be below that level, depending on how many are offered for sale, and how many dealers can get from the Mint before the sell-out.
@NJCoin
I’m gunna follow your advice and my gut feeling.
Done. Rolled back to one for the uncirculated. I’ll deal with the proofs next month. Should be better idea of trends by then. Thanks 🙏
With the ups and downs on enrollment, I was able to add one Peace Dollar Uncirculated Coin today, it might be one from the post preceding mine, who knows. The mint is selling these at a profit as they should, and that is enough profit for me.
@Jzyskowski1 said:
I’ll deal with the proofs next month. Should be better idea of trends by then.
.
25,973 Morgan proof subs and 33,535 Peace proof subs available as of today. At a rate of ~ -500/day, these would not likely fully subscribe before their release in 35 days. To fully subscribe, it will take big buyers bringing a a large influx of unique new "subscribers" on their team electing the full HHL of 25....to the tune of an average -800/day to -1000/day from here on out.
Then, with ~40,000 for each being held for release until the actual release day only, and the possibility of unsubscribed Morgan and Peace proof product also made available on the release date, I'm not confident that there will be a positive resale price trend that would dictate changing the gut feeling that you had today.
But, then, who am I to understand the fickle re-sale pricing dynamics of these proof offerings.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
The unc mintages really are not that high when you consider:
70s will trade ferociously and many will end up in strong hands for set builders.
Dealers need stuff to sell and these will be a revenue source for the foreseeable future. Look at the 21s and how they have stabilized. Promotion of the series will be in overdrive.
Demand for the series will remain strong, not a bullion coin. However, perceived value as a quality US Mint product with under 300K mintage qualifies as an interesting numismatic product with built in demand under $100.
@Jzyskowski1 said:
I’ll deal with the proofs next month. Should be better idea of trends by then.
.
25,973 Morgan proof subs and 33,535 Peace proof subs available as of today. At a rate of ~ -500/day, these would not likely fully subscribe before their release in 35 days. To fully subscribe, it will take big buyers bringing a a large influx of unique new "subscribers" on their team electing the full HHL of 25....to the tune of an average -800/day to -1000/day from here on out.
Then, with ~40,000 for each being held for release until the actual release day only, and the possibility of unsubscribed Morgan and Peace proof product also made available on the release date, I'm not confident that there will be a positive resale price trend that would dictate changing the gut feeling that you had today.
But, then, who am I to understand the fickle re-sale pricing dynamics of these proof offerings.
Odds are high that these are not actually going to sell out, given the fact that there are 125,000 more of them than of the uncs. You are showing 25-30K+ subs available, plus there are another 40K being held back for sale on release. When the uncs turn out to be a crappy flips, even more proof subs will be canceled.
The winners are going to be the reverse proof sets, due to their mintage and relatively unique finish. The regular proofs are going to be the losers due to their mintage.
@NJCoin said:
The regular proofs are going to be the losers due to their mintage.
.
No strong disagreement here. However, while certainly a possibility, I think a mitigating factor on the regular proofs might be that they, too, are a relatively unique finish for the Morgan and Peace dollars...for the common or entry level collector. I have a feeling that they will be very good looking coins.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@Jzyskowski1 said:
So keep my enrollment for the 2 - coin sets? I’m in for 2 right now
Yes. I'm not sure about home runs, but you are not going to lose on those. Those are the ones most people are loading up on, and the fact that the HHL never moved off of 5 should signal that they are going to be winners.
I agree with @NJCoin fwiw. I have 4 subs for the RP set but only 1 of each of the others. I'll keep 1 of each item for myself and there is still plenty of time to dial down the 4 RPs to just 1 if pre-sales on eBay start to indicate a decrease in interest to where it feels meh.
@fathom said:
Strongly object to the message board theorem that the proofs are losers.
Does "not winners" work better for you?
The early returns are in. Uncs at 275K are holding their own, maintaining practical sell-out status as the release approaches, with dealers offering a slight premium above issue price to secure extra inventory.
This indicates demand is right around 275K. So, please, tell the board the flaw in the theorem that a similar issue with a 45% greater mintage is going to be a loser?
Because the natural demand for proofs is so much greater than for uncs? If so, why are tens of thousands of them still available for subscription a month before their release? Because it's greater, but not 125K greater. That's why!
Clearly, that's what the Mint was banking on when it established the mintages. It looks like they got it wrong. You'd have winners if the Mint cut the mintages back to what they sold so far (~325-350K), but that's never going to happen.
So, we have losers at 400K. As you'll see when they don't sell out, and tens of thousands of them appear on eBay at less than $80 each as amateur flippers panic and bail.
Good morning.
As we creep toward the release I’ve made my choice about a couple of each or just one. I’ve settled on one. It has occurred to me that for the cost of the second coin I can buy a 70 of one for less than the cost of the second coins combined. Now which one? If I did order one probably the peace dollar. What say you?
@fathom said:
Strongly object to the message board theorem that the proofs are losers.
I don't think anyone is necessarily calling them losers for anything beyond a potential for flipping standpoint. If I thought it was a loser product in general it'd be silly for me to have them on order for myself.
Comments
Maybe the actual price is still only $67, but the Mint employee in charge of the website is dyslexic?
While always a fan of wishful thinking I’m not going to hold my breath waiting on the United States Mint to lower prices 😂😂😂
Thanks 🙏
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
The mint availability wheel keeps spinning. On again, off again, don't know, kiss your order goodbye.
Remember that box of chocolates thing.
I just subscribed to the 2023 Morgan and Peace Reverse Proof set and Peace Proof coin. Thanks to the owner of this thread and everyone else who posted here.
Any I get shall remain in their lovely OGP. Although if I was a 70 hunter I’d order from one of the big guys.
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
I got 1 proof of each, (and accidentally subscribed for a 2024 eagle
) and I hope them to be undamaged and on time, which seems too much to ask right now.
Type collector, mainly into Seated. -formerly Ownerofawheatiehorde. Good BST transactions with: mirabela, OKCC, MICHAELDIXON, Gerard
I don't see the Morgan and Peace as flippable for the average person.
$76 + 49ish grading = $125 + seller fees and shipping.
I see Pinehurst selling ngc ms70's for $150
nothing wrong with speculating, and trying to get 70's your self though.
I'll buy a few raw and then just buy 70's on the market if needed.
Bullionexchanges.com:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
As owning a "real" proof Morgan or Peace dollar is virtually impossible for most...I'm really looking forward to these!
Well as they say, buy the coin and not the plastic. I will be buying raw coins and will keep them in my collection in the original box and packaging. I am looking forward to getting these from the mint.
Here is my Washington Quarter Variety Registry Set
This is my Washington Quarter Proof Variety Registry Set
Is it true that if you change your subscription 3 times you get banned from the Mint, is that true?
[Is it true that if you change your subscription 3 times you get banned from the Mint, is that true?]
That would be news to me as I've personally adjusted my orders at least 3 times over several months.
Now...if you RETURN multiple items after purchase, they might ding your account...but that's also just a guess.
"There's no place like the MInt" "There's no place like the MInt" "There's no place like the MInt"
Pinehurst is paying 81(5 over) for the 2023 morgan peace unc. Seller pays own shipping. Six coins, 30 dollars, minus shipping.
It is five dollars over. I was surprised they were making a market in the coins. I was also surprised they bothered with five over.
Maybe somebody would get six coins, cherry two and sell four to pinehurst and avoid ebay hassles.
I replied previously, "sort of", with the net effect of those decreasing subscriptions numbers versus those absorbing more being about zero. With 9 days to go until the release of the uncs (6 days to go until subscriptions get locked), it appears that the net effect has shifted to rising stocklevels for subscriptions...particularly sudden jumps in stocklevels for the Morgan and Peace proof subscriptions.
The Morgan unc and the RP set seem to be holding to a near-zero net.
.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Thank you @Steve Palladino
Have a wonderful day. We’re off to the “big” parade up here in cow town. And then off to the park for our 4th celebration. Complete with a genuine big city type flyover. With them new fangled jet 🛩 airy planes. Big rodeo last night even had fireworks 🎆 🤠🧨
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
That is no suprise, and never should be. P.T. Barnum got it right, and we see that every day, and not just with coins.
I'm not at all sure that many people are even aware that they can order directly from the Mint.
That hadn't even crossed my mind but yeah it makes sense.
Might explain the 2023 proof set and other items for sale on eBay at a premium over currently available product. The W ase proofs and congratulations set comes to mind.
Yup. Interesting catch. Thanks 🙏
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
What? No range chickens?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Here you go buddy 🤠
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
With all due respect, at this point none of this is going to matter. Given the demand for the graded slabs, and the fact that dealers are willing to pay slightly above retail to secure additional inventory, anything that does not sell upon release will be snapped up by dealers 24 hours later.
They must be getting some great pricing from the TPGs, perhaps spurred on by competition from the new guys, because the retail price seems too good to be true. Either way, it's impossible for dealers to resist an easy double, less whatever they are paying to grade, so sellouts are inevitable, even with 400K mintages, if 70s can be sold for $150.
Asking price =/= completed sales. Are any actually selling at those prices?
If not, the mere fact that they are offered does not mean people do not realize they can buy them directly from the Mint at a lower price. Lots of things, not just coins, are offered on eBay at inflated prices.
Doesn't mean they result in sales. Most of the inflated listings do not. And, if they do, it could be someone using a coupon, or, sure, possibly someone not knowing what they are doing. That's always the dream for someone stuck with inventory looking to unload it on someone.
Yup. You are correct.
My examples are not for if they sold any. It’s merely an example of things available at the mint and eBay offering the same product. Not so much what their making or if they are selling. Just the fact they are available. Thanks 🙏
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
.
With due respect much appreciated, once again I do this for my entertainment - appealing to my curiosity of what is happening to subscription stocklevels now, day to day. Of course the information that I post will not matter one bit at 24 hours after the release....maybe it will matter leading into the next release and then the next.
.
.
No disagreement. We danced around this a bit before, but besides that "They must be getting some great pricing from the TPGs", the might also be getting a nudge nudge wink wink for a high percentage of 70s. Given what you are postulating, 69s will end up valued at close to melt.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Totally! Probably not quite melt, but almost certainly less than original issue price, given how many there are and what the 70s are selling for. And that's assuming they even accept the 69s, versus just having them be returned raw. Depends on their deals with the TPGs, and how much it would cost to have the coin slabbed 69 versus returned raw.
Let us not forget this. Graded 70 burnished ase low mintage. Less than the us mint was selling them raw.
Coin World sez a 70 is worth $145.
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
for those not collecting these in 70, now is a good time to start.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Well here’s news. I’m not certain it’s good news. But it’s news. There is talk of doubling your money? Doesn’t look like it. Thanks 🙏
Random listing. Not an endorsement
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
I plan to keep at least one sealed box for each of the 5 issues and will consider selling them as a group. If they don't sell, I will just make room for them in my safe.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
Not really news, and any talk of anyone doubling money is ill-informed when graded MS70s are widely available at double the issue price. They are certainly very popular, and will probably hold their value, but they are not going to be home runs for flippers. $105 raw is probably wishful thinking for that seller, since they are likely to be available directly from the Mint for $76.
.
This one is a case in point regarding flipping these. Acquisition cost may be > $76 (if still paying shipping). Selling/shipping costs maybe $10-15. Not much meat left on that bone. ...I suppose the seller is trying to get more than the $5 being offered by, for example, Pinehurst. Definitely far from a flipper's paradise. (especially given that there are 282 Peace unc subscriptions available today, 5 days out from the lockout date, and then another ~27,500 available on the release date)
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
There’s fixin to be another one of each as I seriously consider dumping back down to one each. 🤠
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
My strong advice is to just buy as many as you genuinely want to keep. I doubt you are going to get hurt on them, but don't buy any with the intent to flip, maybe to pay for what you are keeping.
This issue just doesn't lend itself to that, based on HHLs, mintages, and the fact that dealers seems to be getting as many as they need in order to turn around and sell MS70s for around $150. That does not leave any room for a small timer to buy at $76 and sell for a reasonable profit.
That could change if there is a sudden flurry of demand next week, followed by an instant sell-out and increasing premiums on eBay, but that seems VERY unlikely. More likely is that lots of people are going to buy 25 with the intent to flip, and that they will dump them when the big secondary market fails to materialize. Dealers will step in to scoop them up, and the market will stabilize, since they can apparently have them graded inexpensively enough that they can sell an unlimited amount at a price that guarantees them a return.
The offer at $105 is a shot in the dark to see what happens. Nothing is going to happen. There are going to be a ton of them available slightly above $76 next week, and they will sit until the Mint sells out, at which point they will sell for whatever dealers are willing to pay. Which will be little or nothing above $76, and might very well be below that level, depending on how many are offered for sale, and how many dealers can get from the Mint before the sell-out.
@NJCoin
I’m gunna follow your advice and my gut feeling.
Done. Rolled back to one for the uncirculated. I’ll deal with the proofs next month. Should be better idea of trends by then. Thanks 🙏
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
With the ups and downs on enrollment, I was able to add one Peace Dollar Uncirculated Coin today, it might be one from the post preceding mine, who knows. The mint is selling these at a profit as they should, and that is enough profit for me.
.
25,973 Morgan proof subs and 33,535 Peace proof subs available as of today. At a rate of ~ -500/day, these would not likely fully subscribe before their release in 35 days. To fully subscribe, it will take big buyers bringing a a large influx of unique new "subscribers" on their team electing the full HHL of 25....to the tune of an average -800/day to -1000/day from here on out.
Then, with ~40,000 for each being held for release until the actual release day only, and the possibility of unsubscribed Morgan and Peace proof product also made available on the release date, I'm not confident that there will be a positive resale price trend that would dictate changing the gut feeling that you had today.
But, then, who am I to understand the fickle re-sale pricing dynamics of these proof offerings.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
The unc mintages really are not that high when you consider:
70s will trade ferociously and many will end up in strong hands for set builders.
Dealers need stuff to sell and these will be a revenue source for the foreseeable future. Look at the 21s and how they have stabilized. Promotion of the series will be in overdrive.
Demand for the series will remain strong, not a bullion coin. However, perceived value as a quality US Mint product with under 300K mintage qualifies as an interesting numismatic product with built in demand under $100.
Odds are high that these are not actually going to sell out, given the fact that there are 125,000 more of them than of the uncs. You are showing 25-30K+ subs available, plus there are another 40K being held back for sale on release. When the uncs turn out to be a crappy flips, even more proof subs will be canceled.
The winners are going to be the reverse proof sets, due to their mintage and relatively unique finish. The regular proofs are going to be the losers due to their mintage.
So keep my enrollment for the 2 - coin sets? I’m in for 2 right now
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No strong disagreement here. However, while certainly a possibility, I think a mitigating factor on the regular proofs might be that they, too, are a relatively unique finish for the Morgan and Peace dollars...for the common or entry level collector. I have a feeling that they will be very good looking coins.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Yes. I'm not sure about home runs, but you are not going to lose on those. Those are the ones most people are loading up on, and the fact that the HHL never moved off of 5 should signal that they are going to be winners.
I agree with @NJCoin fwiw. I have 4 subs for the RP set but only 1 of each of the others. I'll keep 1 of each item for myself and there is still plenty of time to dial down the 4 RPs to just 1 if pre-sales on eBay start to indicate a decrease in interest to where it feels meh.
Strongly object to the message board theorem that the proofs are losers.
Does "not winners" work better for you?
The early returns are in. Uncs at 275K are holding their own, maintaining practical sell-out status as the release approaches, with dealers offering a slight premium above issue price to secure extra inventory.
This indicates demand is right around 275K. So, please, tell the board the flaw in the theorem that a similar issue with a 45% greater mintage is going to be a loser?
Because the natural demand for proofs is so much greater than for uncs? If so, why are tens of thousands of them still available for subscription a month before their release? Because it's greater, but not 125K greater. That's why!
Clearly, that's what the Mint was banking on when it established the mintages. It looks like they got it wrong. You'd have winners if the Mint cut the mintages back to what they sold so far (~325-350K), but that's never going to happen.
So, we have losers at 400K. As you'll see when they don't sell out, and tens of thousands of them appear on eBay at less than $80 each as amateur flippers panic and bail.
Good morning.
As we creep toward the release I’ve made my choice about a couple of each or just one. I’ve settled on one. It has occurred to me that for the cost of the second coin I can buy a 70 of one for less than the cost of the second coins combined. Now which one? If I did order one probably the peace dollar. What say you?
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I don't think anyone is necessarily calling them losers for anything beyond a potential for flipping standpoint. If I thought it was a loser product in general it'd be silly for me to have them on order for myself.
Keep in mind you can still buy over 100-year-old classic uncirculated Morgans graded in MS64 for just a little over $100, too.
Does anyone really think these new uncirculated moderns will actually have much upside in the long term?
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Maybe 🤠
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