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**** 2023 MORGAN & PEACE SILVER DOLLARS OFFICIAL THREAD****

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  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @RichR said:
    That being said, 9% and 13% being available, respectively, for the Morgan and Peace dollar proofs, are not enormous numbers with months remaining before sales begin.

    With 141 days to go until release date for the Morgan proof and Peace proof products, and at recent rates of subscription, it is estimated that it would take about 246 days for the Morgan proof and about 424 days for the Peace proof to fully subscribe. IOW, the subscriptions for these two products are unlikely to fill prior to release date....unless the rate seen in recent weeks picks up considerably.

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • fathomfathom Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @SPalladino said:

    @RichR said:
    That being said, 9% and 13% being available, respectively, for the Morgan and Peace dollar proofs, are not enormous numbers with months remaining before sales begin.

    With 141 days to go until release date for the Morgan proof and Peace proof products, and at recent rates of subscription, it is estimated that it would take about 246 days for the Morgan proof and about 424 days for the Peace proof to fully subscribe. IOW, the subscriptions for these two products are unlikely to fill prior to release date....unless the rate seen in recent weeks picks up considerably.

    Both those proofs will sell out at some point in the near future.

  • olympicsosolympicsos Posts: 773 ✭✭✭✭

    The fact that the unc Morgans sold all of the subscription units show that this is a viable series for the years going forward.

  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭

    [The fact that the unc Morgans sold all of the subscription units show that this is a viable series for the years going forward.]

    Agreed...a few articles in the numismatic press, plus some drumbeating on Coin TV will soak up any remaining excess.

  • Jzyskowski1Jzyskowski1 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Maybe 👀

    🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶

  • HoneyMarketHoneyMarket Posts: 806 ✭✭✭✭

    @olympicsos said:
    The fact that the unc Morgans sold all of the subscription units show that this is a viable series for the years going forward.

    There's also the fact that the amount of Morgan & Peace unc produced are far lower (275k vs. 400k) than the proof's.

    BST references available on request

  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 25, 2023 5:40PM

    oversupply and diminishing desire applies to all mint products overall and not just this issue. There will always be coins that become valuable in the future. The reality is that now there is enough coins easily available to those who want them which
    really limits the big quick flip. Also the collector base is rapidly shrinking, Does anybody have any valid statistics to show that a major percentage of the high priced sales is not just the same old base buying and selling amongst themselves ? Is there enough young new buyers to keep up values down the road. I agree that coins have a far better chance of survival, but so many collectables of the boomer generation are now worthless. In the future will supply eventually exceed the demand.
    For all of our sake lets hope not. :/

    P.S. I will enjoy having all of my coins for now and when I am dead I won't care. >:)

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • Project NumismaticsProject Numismatics Posts: 1,470 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @HATTRICK said:
    oversupply and diminishing desire applies to all mint products overall and not just this issue. There will always be coins that become valuable in the future. The reality is that now there is enough coins easily available to those who want them which
    really limits the big quick flip. Also the collector base is rapidly shrinking, Does anybody have any valid statistics to show that a major percentage of the high priced sales is not just the same old base buying and selling amongst themselves ? Is there enough young new buyers to keep up values down the road. I agree that coins have a far better chance of survival, but so many collectables of the boomer generation are now worthless. In the future will supply eventually exceed the demand.
    For all of our sake lets hope not. :/

    P.S. I will enjoy having all of my coins for now and when I am dead I won't care. >:)

    Are we already back to the “sky is falling” narrative? Why do you think “the collector base is rapidly shrinking”?

  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 25, 2023 7:36PM

    "...so many collectables of the boomer generation are now worthless"

    I'll have a lengthy "buy" list ready if or when this day comes!

  • olympicsosolympicsos Posts: 773 ✭✭✭✭

    @RichR said:
    "...so many collectables of the boomer generation are now worthless"

    I'll have a lengthy "buy" list ready if or when this day comes!

    I mean, I think the 1909-S VDB is a waste of money...

  • Jzyskowski1Jzyskowski1 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @olympicsos said:

    @RichR said:
    "...so many collectables of the boomer generation are now worthless"

    I'll have a lengthy "buy" list ready if or when this day comes!

    I mean, I think the 1909-S VDB is a waste of money...

    Well there goes my entire collection and as a matter of fact I will crawl onto the top of the pile. I feel the need for a nap. I don’t have a 1909 S vdb. Only a 1909 vdb. I’m old and worthless just like my favorite hobby. Thanks, I feel better now. 🙃

    🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶

  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What's ironic is that I don't even think of my coins as an investment or even an asset...it's a connection to my youth and former family who collected and passed their collections along to me...and I'm grateful.

    It's actually one of the few constants remaining in a (too) rapidly changing world.

    Maybe I'm overstating it...but it brings me joy.

    Plus...am I the only person who would actually welcome a dip in prices in order to pick up a few "bargains"???

  • HoneyMarketHoneyMarket Posts: 806 ✭✭✭✭

    @HATTRICK said:
    P.S. I will enjoy having all of my coins for now and when I am dead I won't care. >:)

    O/T
    Your comment makes me wonder...

    Does anyone plan to be buried with a favorite coin (or maybe their whole collection)...or even melted down with their collection! Your comment makes me ponder, how many have taken their coins with them, literally to the grave.

    It's common theory that you can't take anything with you...BUT, WHAT IF!
    I mean, none of us really know...as we're still on this side!

    BST references available on request

  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 26, 2023 7:40AM

    [Does anyone plan to be buried with a favorite coin (or maybe their whole collection)...or even melted down with their collection! Your comment makes me ponder, how many have taken their coins with them, literally to the grave.]

    My pyramid is currently under construction!

    PS...I buried my parents with their wedding bands/rings...call me stupid...but it seemed like the right thing to do.

    ...I'd like to think that the gravediggers didn't steal the goods after we left.

  • olympicsosolympicsos Posts: 773 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 26, 2023 7:58AM

    @Jzyskowski1 said:

    @olympicsos said:

    @RichR said:
    "...so many collectables of the boomer generation are now worthless"

    I'll have a lengthy "buy" list ready if or when this day comes!

    I mean, I think the 1909-S VDB is a waste of money...

    Well there goes my entire collection and as a matter of fact I will crawl onto the top of the pile. I feel the need for a nap. I don’t have a 1909 S vdb. Only a 1909 vdb. I’m old and worthless just like my favorite hobby. Thanks, I feel better now. 🙃

    I mean with a mintage of 484,000 for the 1909-S VDB, all of the 2023 Morgan and Peace issues have lower mintages, many modern coins have much lower mintages and are much harder to come by. When the baby boomer generation or gen x isn't around to collect coins, that will be the first key date to lose its value.

  • Jzyskowski1Jzyskowski1 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @HoneyMarket said:

    @HATTRICK said:
    P.S. I will enjoy having all of my coins for now and when I am dead I won't care. >:)

    O/T
    Your comment makes me wonder...

    Does anyone plan to be buried with a favorite coin (or maybe their whole collection)...or even melted down with their collection! Your comment makes me ponder, how many have taken their coins with them, literally to the grave.

    It's common theory that you can't take anything with you...BUT, WHAT IF!
    I mean, none of us really know...as we're still on this side!

    1. I have other concerns when I pass😈
    2. The least I can do is pass along my hobby.
    3. I recall hearing something about treasure here on earth not counting for much on the other side. 🙏

    🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶

  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @RichR said:
    "...so many collectables of the boomer generation are now worthless"

    I'll have a lengthy "buy" list ready if or when this day comes!

    That day is already here. Note that I separated coins from other collectibles, however there are things that have great value as well as worthless ones now. I did not say coins would be worthless and only asked if anybody had valid statistics to show who makes up the market now and who will make up the market in the future.

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Not caring about my coins when I am dead was satirical comment. 75% of my collection was purchased to eventually give to my grand kids when they are old enough to appreciate them and they will inherit the remainder when I am gone. My only hope is that they love them as much as I do.

    Not making any future predictions just looking for statistics. With a 50 year career in statistical analysis and reporting I am addicted to over analyzing the statistics of just about everything.

    What I am asking is in the the future will there be enough people interested in acquiring the " MASSIVE " amount of hoards and collections that have been accumulated. Time will tell.

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It's hard to tell what will become valuable or not. Kind of like the current flipper market. B)

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 26, 2023 12:19PM

    Just ballparking and estimated number of days until subscriptions fill for these products. I took the subscription rate from the last 12 days, throwing out the high and low moving date, leaving 10 daily subscription changes to use a the recent mean 'subscription rate'. Included for comparison are the number of days until release for each product. If estimated number of days for subs to fill is greater than days remaining until release, subscription might not complete fill prior to release date (red cells).
    .

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭

    SPalladino

    I love your statistics. Thanks for sharing !

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My prediction is that when "normal collectors" (ie not us on this board) do finally focus on these as the actual sales approach...the sole remaining proofs will start to disappear at a faster pace.

    That being said...when I step back...I think that a very healthy amount of product has already been absorbed!

  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @RichR said:
    My prediction is that when "normal collectors" (ie not us on this board) do finally focus on these as the actual sales approach...the sole remaining proofs will start to disappear at a faster pace.

    That being said...when I step back...I think that a very healthy amount of product has already been absorbed!

    I agree.
    The mathematical model for estimating how many days are left until these products are fully subscribed is based on data over the past ~2 weeks. The Morgan proof and RP set already project to fill before release date, and I think the Peace proofs will also follow, as you suggest.

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • johnny010johnny010 Posts: 1,535 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Based on what I believe are a lot of bad guesses, I maxed out my quantity limits for all of them weeks ago.

    Still have all 18 I bought in 2021 and see these as a nice hold as well. It’s a cheap investment to buy them before release without much downside. All it takes is a bad quality run to drive up demand for the 70s.

  • CusterlostCusterlost Posts: 72 ✭✭

    Got a kick out of Pop returning those bags of Morgan’s as too common. We all done dumb things like throwing away the baseball card accumulation! Just sayin…

  • Glen2022Glen2022 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭✭

    @Custerlost said:
    Got a kick out of Pop returning those bags of Morgan’s as too common. We all done dumb things like throwing away the baseball card accumulation! Just sayin…

    Yep, my mom threw my baseball cards away when I went to college in 1963. about a full Storage box full.

  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Glen2022...oh jeez...1963...the golden age of baseball!

    Should I ask which cards were tossed?!?

  • daltexdaltex Posts: 3,486 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    @RichR said:
    For what some see as "losers", they seem to be flying out the door like hotcakes...

    But what do I know?

    "Losers" because people won't be able to easily triple or quadruple their money with little effort. The Mint probably came close to a price and quantity that satisfies organic demand.

    "Winners" for people who would rather pay $80 each than $250+, since they have been readily available for months at the lower price. "Losers" for folks who would rather see mintages artificially restricted so they could buy at the lower price and flip at the higher price.

    I have a very different take on things. I assume the mint knew exactly what it was doing in 2021 and got the results it wanted. If they're smart, they issued a price and quantity that is between three and five times organic demand, with the majority to vast majority going to those who expect to make a profit buying from the mint, and we all know how difficult that has been. If you exceed organic demand too much, say 10x, then no one will buy next year, but I assume the mint was trying to hit the sweet spot.

    After all, how many people need a roll of 2023 Morgans for their "collection".

  • HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭✭

    few peace uncirculated pop up every couple of days. probably subscription reductions or cancelled

    As of 6 PM Eastern 11 Peace Uncirculated and 125 Two coin Reverse Proof sets are available.

    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
  • FViiaFViia Posts: 4

    Down to last 112, and I thought they would sell out yesterday.

  • Glen2022Glen2022 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭✭

    @RichR said:
    Glen2022...oh jeez...1963...the golden age of baseball!

    Should I ask which cards were tossed?!?

    I guess I am kind of glad I do not specifically recall what cards were tossed. But I do recall is that I had been collecting since about eight years old, which included the 50s, and had many Yankee cards, think Mantle, Berra, etc., Dodgers, think Kofax, Drysdale etc.

    Boo-hoo.

  • JBKJBK Posts: 15,532 ✭✭✭✭✭

    FWIW, of the issues from two years ago, I found the Peace Dollar to be the most attractive.

    It will be interesting to see the two designs in a modern proof finish and also in RP.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 7, 2023 7:35AM

    @daltex said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @RichR said:
    For what some see as "losers", they seem to be flying out the door like hotcakes...

    But what do I know?

    "Losers" because people won't be able to easily triple or quadruple their money with little effort. The Mint probably came close to a price and quantity that satisfies organic demand.

    "Winners" for people who would rather pay $80 each than $250+, since they have been readily available for months at the lower price. "Losers" for folks who would rather see mintages artificially restricted so they could buy at the lower price and flip at the higher price.

    I have a very different take on things. I assume the mint knew exactly what it was doing in 2021 and got the results it wanted. If they're smart, they issued a price and quantity that is between three and five times organic demand, with the majority to vast majority going to those who expect to make a profit buying from the mint, and we all know how difficult that has been. If you exceed organic demand too much, say 10x, then no one will buy next year, but I assume the mint was trying to hit the sweet spot.

    After all, how many people need a roll of 2023 Morgans for their "collection".

    We'll have to agree to disagree here. I think the Mint was blindsided by the demand in 2021. Having so many pissed off would-be customers does not serve their objectives. Neither does leaving so much money on the table, as new issues are immediately resold for a significant multiple of the original issue price.

    Whether or not they are overestimating organic demand this year is a legitimate question, and only time will tell. But it's worth keeping in mind that their sweet spot is to meet demand, not exceed it or fall short. In such a case, the coins will hold their value, but will not create flipping opportunities for us. Anyone loading up based on what happened two years ago is likely to be sorely disappointed, but you cannot blame the Mint for selling to them as long as they are willing to buy.

  • CusterlostCusterlost Posts: 72 ✭✭

    However you look at it, re-issuing the Morgan dollar has been a plus. Brought new interest during a lackluster time of political do nothingness, virus shutdowns, and general economic malaise.

    We used to dream about what it would have been like to go to the bank in Pittsburgh or a saloon in Casper and get a freshly minted silver dollar. We might have missed the frenzy of the mint hoard of the 60s. But now we can vicariously live those years for a mere $76 investment. You can’t even take the family to Arby’s for $76, so what the heck. It would be DUMB to let these go by.

  • BucketHeadBucketHead Posts: 129 ✭✭✭

    Looks like the RP subscriptions have sold out.

  • Jzyskowski1Jzyskowski1 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I just reduced my Morgan and peace dollar uncirculated enrollment to zero. Reset the reverse proof set to 1 and the proof morgan and peace dollar to 1. There’s too many and I feel that in years to come the 2021’s will be the only bigger winner of these, value wise. Many will start their collection with this years issue. Thanks 🙏

    🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶

  • NorCalJackNorCalJack Posts: 538 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I am curious about the regular Morgan and Peace proof. What I would like to see is about 10% of the proofs being DCAM, 10% being CAM and 80% being Non-CAM. I think the CAM proofs would be worth a lot more and would really drive up the demand for ordering the proofs to have a chance at getting a CAM proof.

    But I am sure they will all be DCAM. But we will wait and see I guess.

  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 11, 2023 8:50AM

    @Jzyskowski1 said:
    I just reduced my Morgan and peace dollar uncirculated enrollment to zero. Reset the reverse proof set to 1 and the proof morgan and peace dollar to 1. There’s too many and I feel that in years to come the 2021’s will be the only bigger winner of these, value wise. Many will start their collection with this years issue. Thanks 🙏

    If the decision was based on "too many" (relative to demand), then the two proof products would be the ones to drop. The uncs are lower mintage and fully subscribed well before release date. OTOH, if the decision was based on a likelihood of discontinuous proof offering going forward, or that these might hold value as the first year of proof and RP production, then I understand the rationale.

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • SPalladinoSPalladino Posts: 868 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 11, 2023 8:48AM

    With adjustments of subscriptions, the RP set changed back to 'add to bag' this morning, with one available. (was 'remind me')
    And, oddly, the Peace unc reads 'add to bag', but the subscriptions stock level is 0.
    Bigger new subscriptions for the Morgan and Peace proofs in the last 24 hours - perhaps due to the other products being fully subscribed?
    Based on the average daily subscription changes over the past two weeks, the Morgan proof is expected to be fully subscribed in another 62 days, while the Peace proof is still projecting to not fully subscribe by the release date (release date is 90 days away).

    Steve Palladino
    - Ike Group member
    - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
  • Jzyskowski1Jzyskowski1 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @SPalladino said:

    @Jzyskowski1 said:
    I just reduced my Morgan and peace dollar uncirculated enrollment to zero. Reset the reverse proof set to 1 and the proof morgan and peace dollar to 1. There’s too many and I feel that in years to come the 2021’s will be the only bigger winner of these, value wise. Many will start their collection with this years issue. Thanks 🙏

    If the decision was based on "too many" (relative to demand), then the two proof products would be the ones to drop. The uncs are lower mintage and fully subscribed well before release date. OTOH, if the decision was based on a likelihood of discontinuous proof offering going forward, or that these might hold value as the first year of proof and RP production, then I understand the rationale.

    My choice was made with your later thoughts in mind. A one year off kinda thing. I can see the mintage. Just my reasoning. Thanks 🙏

    🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶

  • RichRRichR Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 11, 2023 1:22PM

    For the price per coin...relative to the cost of older "classic" coins...I consider this to be a relative drop in the bucket and therefore decent items to roll the dice re potential long term return...plus I like the designs.

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