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Where do you rate current US economic conditions?

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  • Options
    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • Options
    derrybderryb Posts: 36,375 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    Courage is a poor substitute for preparedness.

    Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
    - Nick Giambruno
    Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.

  • Options
    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭


    .

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • Options
    ctf_error_coinsctf_error_coins Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    Fact:

    I went to Home Depot yesterday and bought 2x4's in California

    Guess how much I paid?

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    $2.97 ea :o:o:o

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    GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,649 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ErrorsOnCoins
    Based on a look around here, if they are nice 8 ft. versions, that $3 each was a good low price. Even finding them is still a bit of a challenge in some spots.

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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    @ErrorsOnCoins said:
    Fact:

    I went to Home Depot yesterday and bought 2x4's in California

    Guess how much I paid?
    $2.97 ea :o:o:o

    Lumber is about the only commodity tanking faster than the gutter metal. Good thing because I still have 2 barns to build. LG!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 8,277 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Wanna see egg prices collapse...stop buying them for a month. Surely we can all go a month without an omlette or cake.

    Same thing happens with Orange Juice in the winter months when Florida has a freeze. OJ spikes. People resist the price increase for a few months and the price retreats.

    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
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    BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 8,277 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    Has the FED fixed the inflation problem Congress created?

    The more accurate question.

    Very inaccurate. Congress did not create the FED's QE or easy money problems that naturally led to inflation. Congress's only liability is that it did not shut down the FED.

    The FED is a 24/7 operation. Even "open" on holidays? The ATM is always stocked.

    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,375 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 22, 2023 8:41PM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    "Gold investors are betting the Fed will continue to be negligent with its monetary policy. Without the Fed’s help, the free market would impose interest rate discipline on the Treasury and Congress." - RealInvestmentAdvice.com

    Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
    - Nick Giambruno
    Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.

  • Options
    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 23, 2023 5:34AM

    @derryb said:
    "Gold investors are betting the Fed will continue to be negligent with its monetary policy. Without the Fed’s help, the free market would impose interest rate discipline on the Treasury and Congress." - RealInvestmentAdvice.com

    Is the author saying gold is overvalued?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • Options
    derrybderryb Posts: 36,375 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    "Gold investors are betting the Fed will continue to be negligent with its monetary policy. Without the Fed’s help, the free market would impose interest rate discipline on the Treasury and Congress." - RealInvestmentAdvice.com

    Is the author saying gold is overvalued?

    You shoul read all of an article to get the whole picture. Typical of you to pick pieces and try to make them the whole story. One line later the author continues with:

    _"The scatter plot below shows the same data in a different format. As shown, the correlation is high. Recently, as highlighted by the orange dots, the slope of the relationship has become more vertical. Essentially, gold prices are not rising or falling as much versus real yields as they did in the prior twenty years. This occurs because the relationship between gold and real yields is much less robust when real yields are positive, as they have been for the last year."
    _

    Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
    - Nick Giambruno
    Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.

  • Options
    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 23, 2023 1:12PM

    I read the entire article. Udually an analyst will not take a narrow set of data, compare it with a broader set, and make claim. That's called pseudoscience. Which, I suppose after the last 3 years, is now widely accepted. Lol

    It's like saying. "This always happens, except when it doesnt".

    Were real yields positive prior to 2022. I seem to recall many on this forum saying real yields were negative because inflation was understated. Actually, those folk are saying the same now.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • Options
    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    Gutter down. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,148 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 24, 2023 12:43AM

    @blitzdude said:
    Gutter down. RGDS!

    So why do you still have silver ("gutter") ?
    Just the other day in another thread you stated that your assets include silver (paper and physical).
    But you incessantly complain about dropping silver prices (except when someone else is selling physical and you complain about high premiums).

    If you hate silver that much, sell it all and move on.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,375 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 24, 2023 7:30AM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    Another round of "when liars figure, figures lie:"

    Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
    - Nick Giambruno
    Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.

  • Options
    GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,402 ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 24, 2023 7:53AM

    The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) came in stronger than expected; this is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, more so than the better-known CPI.

    Bond yields are up, further Fed rate hikes are being discounted, and stocks are down.

    I have said for over a year that we are going to well over 5% on the Fed Funds and now there's a chance we approach 6%. :o

    Fed officials speak later today. Stay tuned.... :)

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    GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,402 ✭✭✭✭

    @BLUEJAYWAY said:

    @cohodk said:
    Wanna see egg prices collapse...stop buying them for a month. Surely we can all go a month without an omlette or cake.

    Same thing happens with Orange Juice in the winter months when Florida has a freeze. OJ spikes. People resist the price increase for a few months and the price retreats.

    The difference is that there are substitutes for orange juice. There is no substitute for eggs in baking/cooking.

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    RobMRobM Posts: 544 ✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:
    The difference is that there are substitutes for orange juice. There is no substitute for eggs in baking/cooking.

    https://www.biggerbolderbaking.com/egg-substitutes-for-baking/

    I'm not going to argue the appeal, but here's a list.

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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said:
    Gutter down. RGDS!

    So why do you still have silver ("gutter") ?
    Just the other day in another thread you stated that your assets include silver (paper and physical).
    But you incessantly complain about dropping silver prices (except when someone else is selling physical and you complain about high premiums).

    If you hate silver that much, sell it all and move on.

    Gutter down even more! Pretty much every time you open your mouth and the price drops more. Just like Majik. THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,148 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said:
    Gutter down. RGDS!

    So why do you still have silver ("gutter") ?
    Just the other day in another thread you stated that your assets include silver (paper and physical).
    But you incessantly complain about dropping silver prices (except when someone else is selling physical and you complain about high premiums).

    If you hate silver that much, sell it all and move on.

    Gutter down even more! Pretty much every time you open your mouth and the price drops more. Just like Majik. THKS!

    So if I post enough times your SLV will be worthless ?

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    GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,402 ✭✭✭✭

    @RobM said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:
    The difference is that there are substitutes for orange juice. There is no substitute for eggs in baking/cooking.
    https://www.biggerbolderbaking.com/egg-substitutes-for-baking/
    I'm not going to argue the appeal, but here's a list.

    But most bakers and households don't use them. The demand for eggs is fairly ineleastic.

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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,109 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said:
    Gutter down. RGDS!

    So why do you still have silver ("gutter") ?
    Just the other day in another thread you stated that your assets include silver (paper and physical).
    But you incessantly complain about dropping silver prices (except when someone else is selling physical and you complain about high premiums).

    If you hate silver that much, sell it all and move on.

    Gutter down even more! Pretty much every time you open your mouth and the price drops more. Just like Majik. THKS!

    So if I post enough times your SLV will be worthless ?

    Please stop posting B)

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,375 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 27, 2023 9:19AM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    or, stop reading. :o

    Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
    - Nick Giambruno
    Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.

  • Options
    JWPJWP Posts: 19,217 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Just a visit to the grocery store leaves you broke and feel like the economy is in trouble. i'd give it a 3 at best. :#

    USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
    Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,375 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2, 2023 8:18AM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    Bankruptcy filings in US surge at fastest pace since 2009

    Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
    - Nick Giambruno
    Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.

  • Options
    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 3, 2023 5:43AM

    Good to see the warning at the beginning of this as being an opinion piece. It seems to be politically biased.

    But to your point, one should focus on the actual number of bankruptcies and relative to total number of companies.

    The author touts the "good times" with the previous administration, yet it appears there were still many filings of public corporate bankruptcy

    https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2020/02/the-year-in-bankruptcy-2019#:~:text=The number of public company,2008 and 211 in 2009.

    The article cites 39 bankruptcies. That seems like a minuscule number compared to the total number of companies. And if the increase was from 10 to 20, this would be touted as a "doubling in bankruptcy filings". While true, it is a meaningless statistic, and usually cited to cause mistrust, anger, fear, discontentment and contempt.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 7, 2023 6:01AM

    That pack a day habit of smokes in 1980 would be worth over $26,000 today generating over $100/month in interest. Now multiply that over a decade. Simple choices can reap huge rewards.

    One bag of potato chips per month could be over $3000 in savings in 20 years

    Be your own steward.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 10, 2023 4:49AM

    SVB ...Silicon Valley Bank, 16th largest in the US has just turtled. Probably will have to be absorbed by a TBTF bank.

    Is this just the beginning? The free money decade is o.v.e.r. The FED is having to raise rates and those that don't understand and had a 'free money' business plan are going to get crushed.

    Edit: higher interest rates usually crush gold and silver unless there is a flight to gold as a safe haven.

    Have a nice day
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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,888 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If I recall..... SVB was involved quite a bit in crypto?

    ----- kj
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    GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,649 ✭✭✭✭✭

    .> @streeter said:

    SVB ...Silicon Valley Bank, 16th largest in the US has just turtled. Probably will have to be absorbed by a TBTF bank.

    Is this just the beginning? The free money decade is o.v.e.r. The FED is having to raise rates and those that don't understand and had a 'free money' business plan are going to get crushed.

    Edit: higher interest rates usually crush gold and silver unless there is a flight to gold as a safe haven.

    Rates actually dropped a bit last day or so from a peak.
    Interesting times. The same day option trades in the stock market are causing instability as well.

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    ctf_error_coinsctf_error_coins Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    Bought some more 2x4's at Home Depot which seemed to have bottomed out at $2.97 ea :):):)

    Then I went to Big 5 and bought 2 pairs of Hi-Tec Hiking Boots for only $35 a pair. Price is 1/3 of what it was 20 years ago.

    Huge deflation in certain products ....

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    TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,020 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    From eggs to lumber. Who gets a cheap woodie wins.

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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    From eggs to lumber. Who gets a cheap woodie wins.

    There will be a day in the not-too-distant future when even gutter metal will be cheap again. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 11, 2023 4:37AM

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    From eggs to lumber. Who gets a cheap woodie wins.

    5 dozen eggs at BJs for $14.97. Oh well, so much for the great egg crisis of 2023.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    rte592rte592 Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There is a neighborhood cleanup in my area.
    The metal scrappers and resellers are up and down the street collecting anything of value.
    My neighbor had some steel bed rails out and I was headed to the store.
    Had to go home swap out for the truck and pick up some scrap metal.
    I always seem to have a use for angle iron and scrap metal pieces.
    I probably should have driven around and collected more stuff.
    Another neighbor had some 2x10 x 5 wood.
    Fresh cut marks were probably 2x10x10-12 foot boards.
    Slightly warped but I think I could use some of that as well.
    I have a friend who has plenty of older wood, but this pile is literally 3 door down.
    Still thinking about dragging that home.
    One man's trans and all.
    Back to the Egg dilemma, Sam's club tomorrow should have an 18 pack for $9.

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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    @rte592 said:
    Back to the Egg dilemma, Sam's club tomorrow should have an 18 pack for $9. \

    Only pulled 15 out of the coop tonight, sure seemed light but we did just get another blast of winter. That and I wouldn't be surprised if I missed a few. Just need a quick dip. Almost as sweet as the Au. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,375 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    If eggs are anything like tomatoes, it's cheaper to not grow your own.

    Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
    - Nick Giambruno
    Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.

  • Options
    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    @derryb said:
    If eggs are anything like tomatoes, it's cheaper to not grow your own.

    Just a little bit of "work". Miniscule financial costs, the girls pay for a months keep in approximately 5 days. That leaves 24.5 days of profit. Much better returns than the gutter I can honestly say and it's not even a conscious attempt to generate income. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,148 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @derryb said:
    If eggs are anything like tomatoes, it's cheaper to not grow your own.

    Just a little bit of "work". Miniscule financial costs, the girls pay for a months keep in approximately 5 days. That leaves 24.5 days of profit. Much better returns than the gutter I can honestly say and it's not even a conscious attempt to generate income. RGDS!

    More than just a "little" work, I suspect.
    How are the eggs doing after a few months in the safe ?

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,375 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 16, 2023 11:27AM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    The affect of rising interest rates on investments made by banks (with depositor funds.): What's a central bank to do?

    Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
    - Nick Giambruno
    Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.

  • Options
    HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,178 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb asked “The affect of rising interest rates on investments made by banks (with depositor funds.): What's a central bank to do?”

    No doubt, they are in a bind. My guess is that they keeps rates unchanged next week.

    Higashiyama
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    GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,649 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 16, 2023 2:43PM

    What is a central bank to do? Print more money electronically out of thin air and loan it to banks for their securities that are underwater. They are the banks.

    Then raise rates anyway. Problem solved. ;)

    This:

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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @derryb said:
    If eggs are anything like tomatoes, it's cheaper to not grow your own.

    Just a little bit of "work". Miniscule financial costs, the girls pay for a months keep in approximately 5 days. That leaves 24.5 days of profit. Much better returns than the gutter I can honestly say and it's not even a conscious attempt to generate income. RGDS!

    More than just a "little" work, I suspect.
    How are the eggs doing after a few months in the safe ?

    No safe, no bunker, no doom and gloom. They either get swapped out for useful dollars to purchase other necessities or they get eaten with a few days. In The Commonwealth we call that #Livin RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,466 ✭✭✭✭

    BlitzFool blowing his egg horn ...high on dried raccoon droppings...he is ready to barter!


    Loves me some shiny!
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    dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,148 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @derryb said:
    If eggs are anything like tomatoes, it's cheaper to not grow your own.

    Just a little bit of "work". Miniscule financial costs, the girls pay for a months keep in approximately 5 days. That leaves 24.5 days of profit. Much better returns than the gutter I can honestly say and it's not even a conscious attempt to generate income. RGDS!

    More than just a "little" work, I suspect.
    How are the eggs doing after a few months in the safe ?

    No safe, no bunker, no doom and gloom. They either get swapped out for useful dollars to purchase other necessities or they get eaten with a few days. In The Commonwealth we call that #Livin RGDS!

    Livin' day to day. Also known as living paycheck to paycheck like a lot of people.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,148 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    But, where is the economy? Seems everyone still has a job, car and home prices are softening a little, energy prices are lower. All good things for the consumer, no?

    @cohodk said:
    US Home Resales Jump by Most Since 2020, Ending Year-Long Slide https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/us-home-resales-snap-record-decline-with-biggest-jump-since-2020

    Home prices going up and down at the same time ? I don't think so.
    Home prices seem to be pretty flat right now.
    But stagflation seems inevitable.

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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,888 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Not sure what to make of the article.

    Perhaps some of the ones who bought at higher prices... are now regretting the move and selling to get out? You know... the ones who bought houses sight unseen? and offering 10% above listing price? Just find it curious... something just does not quite make sense to me. (but that doesn't take much!!)

    ----- kj
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