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Where do you rate current US economic conditions?

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  • AzurescensAzurescens Posts: 2,755 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 2 - Time to barter my PMs

    I've been bartering my silver for farm fresh beef and produce for awhile now. Maybe 2 years?

    I made friends with a few gardeners so I buy less groceries and have more money to spend on silver. I've been growing tons of mushrooms to trade for food too so I can buy more silver.

    I got really lucky and loaded the boat back in 2019 and 2020, so every trade for me with all that stuff is a massive win right now.

    We used to have the hottest wild mushroom market in the western world here. But restaurants never recovered so wholesale went out the door. Individuals were still buying as of a year ago. Now it is rare to find anyone buying at all. If I wasn't able to trade it I think I'd stop growing. There's even less money in bioprospecting now (cloning wild tissue for other farmers).

    Turns out people stop buying novelty food when they can't afford regular food.

    Things have gotten worse for us than in 2020 for a variety of reasons and honestly silver and growing food is keeping us going. I'm not very happy with how this is going but it's better than nothing. All those wild conspiracy theorists were right and I'm thankful every day that I took their advice. We would be screwed right now.

  • AzurescensAzurescens Posts: 2,755 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 2 - Time to barter my PMs

    @Azurescens said:
    I've been bartering my silver for farm fresh beef and produce for awhile now. Maybe 2 years?

    I made friends with a few gardeners so I buy less groceries and have more money to spend on silver. I've been growing tons of mushrooms to trade for food too so I can buy more silver.

    I got really lucky and loaded the boat back in 2019 and 2020, so every trade for me with all that stuff is a massive win right now.

    We used to have the hottest wild mushroom market in the western world here. But restaurants never recovered so wholesale went out the door. Individuals were still buying as of a year ago. Now it is rare to find anyone buying at all. If I wasn't able to trade it I think I'd stop growing. There's even less money in bioprospecting now (cloning wild tissue for other farmers).

    Turns out people stop buying novelty food when they can't afford regular food.

    Things have gotten worse for us than in 2020 for a variety of reasons and honestly silver and growing food is keeping us going. I'm not very happy with how this is going but it's better than nothing. All those wild conspiracy theorists were right and I'm thankful every day that I took their advice. We would be screwed right now.

    I think it's worth mentioning there has been no giant payday for my 90% yet except the high end proof stuff, and I'm really thankful I went for the high tier stuff and cut up all those mint sets. If I had to sell my proof 90% today I'd double my money in just a few years. I'd maybe break even on my circ stuff except the cheap ones I bought in 2019.

    I don't know if I wanna live in a world where I'm trading cull 90% for food. But it does look like we are getting closer to that.

    Turns out people value vintage collector stuff significantly more than worn Washington quarters. Even the people trading food for silver want quality stuff that reminds them of their youth. I would have (and did) figure it would be the opposite.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    Do any of those farmers want silver in payment?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • AzurescensAzurescens Posts: 2,755 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 2 - Time to barter my PMs

    Yeah. I can always pay with fiat but I'd rather use silver I bought at $12-$18 prices so I'm pulling profits as I use it in lieu of $30. Some of it trades for more too, of course. People who aren't necessarily coin collectors like vintage stuff and toners, too.

    I don't think I'd go out and buy silver at 31 just to trade it. I'm starting to run a little low on the cheap stuff but it has served me very well. I'm pretty pleased with the outcome here. The savings on groceries is incredible too since the base price of peppers, tomatoes, onions, corn, etc from the source is already way lower than in a shop.

    Gold going up as much as it has makes me feel way better about running low on cheap silver. I've pulled profits from most of my platinum, which I may regret, but I'm happy with my decisions. If I was flush with cash right now I'd probably be buying more.

    I do regret buying proof eagles at the peak but I'm patient and can just run the long game with those.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,912 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    @jmski52 said:
    Do any of those farmers want silver in payment?

    Certainly not this one. I do accept the Au though. THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    Certainly not this one. I do accept the Au though.

    Nobody asked you. The question was directed to the OP.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 20, 2024 7:00AM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    Except for the Covid "panic," the last time the Fed cut by 0.5% was in October 8, 2008, three weeks after the collapse of the venerable investment bank Lehman Brothers.

    Make no mistake. 50bps cut is a panic cut. So, why did the Fed panic? And the fact that more cuts are forecast tells us what about our "boomin" economy?

    In the short term look for most all assets to flourish. Question is which will weather the intermediate/long term storm. As I continue to dump my incoming dollars I'm going with gold (DGP) and a crypto (ETH) for the long term.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 20, 2024 12:42PM

    @derryb said:
    Except for the Covid "panic," the last time the Fed cut by 0.5% was in October 8, 2008, three weeks after the collapse of the venerable investment bank Lehman Brothers.

    Make no mistake. 50bps cut is a panic cut. So, why did the Fed panic? And the fact that more cuts are forecast tells us what about our "boomin" economy?

    "Your" opinion is they panicked. No one else thinks that, except fellow echo prisoners.

    And why not cut? The market had already taken 200bps out of the system.

    Look in you backyard....it be BOOMIN!!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • FrankHFrankH Posts: 945 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Can't happen. EVERYONE is protected by the SIPC. :D

    From Google: "SIPC is a non-profit membership corporation created under the Securities Investor Protection Act."

    I....jussstt... finished the Netflix documentary on the Bernie Madoff Ponzi fraud.
    Fun watch.
    Not fun for those who thought he was legit. :'(

    It was on screen for only a second but I think it said that in the early days of the "recovery" the SIPC required deposit was................... **$150.00...""

    per FIRM !! :D:o:s

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,912 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    @FrankH said:
    Can't happen. EVERYONE is protected by the SIPC. :D

    From Google: "SIPC is a non-profit membership corporation created under the Securities Investor Protection Act."

    I....jussstt... finished the Netflix documentary on the Bernie Madoff Ponzi fraud.
    Fun watch.
    Not fun for those who thought he was legit. :'(

    It was on screen for only a second but I think it said that in the early days of the "recovery" the SIPC required deposit was................... **$150.00...""

    per FIRM !! :D:o:s

    The gutter ponzi scheme could be worth zero $0.00 sense. Guess time will tell. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 22, 2024 10:09PM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @FrankH said:
    Can't happen. EVERYONE is protected by the SIPC. :D

    From Google: "SIPC is a non-profit membership corporation created under the Securities Investor Protection Act."

    SIPC, like Federal Deposit Insurance (FDIC) has limited rescue funds that will not protect EVERYONE. Both programs are a public relations optic to make savers and investors think they are protected (feel safe) no matter how bad it gets. In the event the very limited funds in either program get disbursed one can only guess which crowd gets made whole.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • FrankHFrankH Posts: 945 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 23, 2024 8:12AM

    @derryb said:

    @FrankH said:
    Can't happen. EVERYONE is protected by the SIPC. :D

    From Google: "SIPC is a non-profit membership corporation created under the Securities Investor Protection Act."

    SIPC, like Federal Deposit Insurance (FDIC) has limited rescue funds that will not protect EVERYONE. Both programs are a public relations optic to make savers and investors think they are protected (feel safe) no matter how bad it gets. In the event the very limited funds in either program get disbursed one can only guess which crowd gets made whole.

    My reasoning for my idiotically massive gold stash.

    <3

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 23, 2024 5:12PM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    Except for the Covid "panic," the last time the Fed cut by 0.5% was in October 8, 2008, three weeks after the collapse of the venerable investment bank Lehman Brothers.

    Make no mistake. 50bps cut is a panic cut. So, why did the Fed panic? And the fact that more cuts are forecast tells us what about our "boomin" economy?

    "Your" opinion is they panicked. No one else thinks that, except fellow echo prisoners.

    And why not cut? The market had already taken 200bps out of the system.

    The $1M question is "why cut?" I suspect it has a lot to do with an imminent banking crisis:

    Reducing rates improves the unrealized losses on banks’ bond portfolios, primarily caused by the Fed’s prior rapid interest rate hikes. When rates rise, the value of existing bonds (with lower yields than new bonds) falls. This is what caused the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.

    Did the FED ignite the next banking crisis with its rapid rate increases, that took a toll on bank's bond portfolios, and they are now forced to "panic" with consecutive rate cuts to save the banks?

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    No.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • FrankHFrankH Posts: 945 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    No.

    Oh. We shall see. Will house sales ROAR now? :D

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,106 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 23, 2024 5:46PM
    DEFCON 1 - I'm waiting in a bread line as I type

    now forced to "panic"

    .

    SVB's collapse marked the second largest bank failure in U.S. history after Washington Mutual's in 2008

    huge

    so they're in a panic? did it happen last month?

    On March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed

    1.5 years is a really slow panic

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 23, 2024 7:17PM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @MsMorrisine said:

    On March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed

    1.5 years is a really slow panic

    It's a new panic based on the same conditions that led to SVB failure:

    1. FED jacks rates up, decimating bank bond portfolios
    2. FED realizes the coming banking problems that the FED created with their rate hikes
    3. FED reduces rates to help bank bond portfolios

    Rinse, wash, repeat.

    And in other news. . .

    China's central bank also panics and cuts multiple rates.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 23, 2024 7:26PM

    @FrankH said:

    @cohodk said:
    No.

    Oh. We shall see. Will house sales ROAR now? :D

    No. Can't sell inventory you don't have.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Derryb is confused by cause.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    derryb isn't confused by cause.

    FED jacks rates up, decimating bank bond portfolios (while killing small businesses & jobs)
    FED realizes the coming banking problems that the FED created with their rate hikes (and then panics when the stock market & 401Ks start to roll over)
    FED reduces rates to help bank bond portfolios (and creates $trillions of new cash to hand out to their friends, further destroying the purchasing power of people's savings)

    = more and more people dependent on gov.com handouts

    = more and more people becoming disenfranchised and desperate

    Interest on the debt is OVER $1 trillion/yr., and going higher while deficit spending is WAY, WAY out of control.

    But according to the bankers, MIC & corporate sellouts, it's all good, man. As long as they can control the system.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 24, 2024 11:22AM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @cohodk said:
    Derryb is confused by cause.

    Sure don't know the cause of your insecurity and need to believe you are the expert. I never claimed to be the expert; I only refer others to the proven experts. They, and there analysis are different than a wannabe expert.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,106 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 24, 2024 11:03AM
    DEFCON 1 - I'm waiting in a bread line as I type

    @derryb said:

    It's a new panic based on the same conditions that led to SVB failure:

    1. FED jacks rates up, decimating bank bond portfolios

    the fed just lowered rates and that is the most new action they've taken

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @MsMorrisine said:

    @derryb said:

    It's a new panic based on the same conditions that led to SVB failure:

    1. FED jacks rates up, decimating bank bond portfolios

    the fed just lowered rates and that is the most new action they've taken

    Read my full post again. The first, earlier FED move (rates up) clobbered the banks' bond portfolios that are dependent on high rates. As of April 2023, US commercial banks held $4.2 trillion in Treasury bonds and other government securities, which is about 24% of assets for large banks and 15% for small banks.

    The FED is now trying to repair the damage. This tells me the FED sees an early threat of a banking crisis. As we learned in 2009, FED priority is protecting the banking system (the Banks).

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,912 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    The only "damage" is what you have dreamt up in your head. BOOMIN! RGDS!!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,106 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 1 - I'm waiting in a bread line as I type

    @derryb said:

    Read my full post again. The first, earlier FED move (rates up) clobbered the banks' bond portfolios that are dependent on high rates. As of April 2023, US commercial banks held $4.2 trillion in Treasury bonds and other government securities, which is about 24% of assets for large banks and 15% for small banks.

    The FED is now trying to repair the damage. This tells me the FED sees an early threat of a banking crisis. As we learned in 2009, FED priority is protecting the banking system (the Banks).

    1.5 years is an awfully slow panic

    all banks forced to hold to maturity would have had their bank runs or fed bailouts by now

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 24, 2024 5:48PM
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @MsMorrisine said:

    @derryb said:

    Read my full post again. The first, earlier FED move (rates up) clobbered the banks' bond portfolios that are dependent on high rates. As of April 2023, US commercial banks held $4.2 trillion in Treasury bonds and other government securities, which is about 24% of assets for large banks and 15% for small banks.

    The FED is now trying to repair the damage. This tells me the FED sees an early threat of a banking crisis. As we learned in 2009, FED priority is protecting the banking system (the Banks).

    1.5 years is an awfully slow panic

    all banks forced to hold to maturity would have had their bank runs or fed bailouts by now

    The FED panic ("FED pivot" in woke terms) occurred just recently when they cut by .5%.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Derryb is confused by cause.

    Sure don't know the cause of your insecurity and need to believe you are the expert. I never claimed to be the expert; I only refer others to the proven experts. They, and there analysis are different than a wannabe expert.

    SVB didn't fail because the price of their bond holdings went down. It failed because of internet panic by a billionaire who scared folk to take their money out.

    I'm not an expert, but there are things in which I know significantly more than you.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

    It failed because of internet panic by a billionaire who scared folk to take their money out.

    SVB failed because of corrupt & inept gross mismanagement.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    @jmski52 said:
    It failed because of internet panic by a billionaire who scared folk to take their money out.

    SVB failed because of corrupt & inept gross mismanagement.

    . . . that allowed a "too large" bond portfolio. It depositors were mostly uninsured silicon valley companies that were quicker to create a run on the bank than would depositors that believed they were FDIC insured.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

    Mises' take on the rate cut.

    "If you make it easy for governments to borrow, they will gladly do it and continue printing currency, leading to the currency’s slow decline."

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

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