@cohodk said:
Your views are through the lens of your demographic, which is very myopic, and self-centered.
@cohodk said:
We focus on $1 trillion in credit card debt while ignoring the $1 trillion in added income via higher interest rates.
Credit card debt isn't up much from 2008 while the stock market and real estate values have tripled. The US stock market has a value of $90 trillion and residential real estate of $45 trillion, while the US bond market is worth over $50 trillion.
Why do we place so much emphasis on the small while ignoring the big?
.
Talk about being "myopic".
Your "analysis" leaves out a component of major importance.
Yes, with higher interest rates, some people (the net savers) earn more in interest income.
But did you know that interest rates on credit card debt have also increased, a lot ?
In 2008 the typical interest rate on credit card debt was about 13%.
Today it is about 21%
.
Apple stock has increased more in value just this year than the total of that credit card debt.
Why so much focus on the small?
.
Total credit card debt in the United States is approaching one trillion dollars. Not "small".
.
Total credit card debt has averaged about $750 billion for the last 20 years. So you're talking about an increase of $250 billion. Yeah, it's small.
So let's look at delinquency rates, since this is really what you are afraid of.....
@cohodk,
Credit card delinquency rates are up 6 quarters in a row. Average credit card rate is over 50% higher (20% now vs 13% in 2003 -20 years ago). That means that credit card holders are paying around 30% more each month now vs 20 years ago on the same balance. Over the same period, price levels are up 66% and population grew 15%. With all considered (inflation, population growth, interest on payments) one can argue that credit card burden is nearly identical now to what it was in 2003....... but what you are not considering is that the consumer is coming off of 2+ years of massive paycheck stimulus, boosted child credits, rent payment suspension, and student loan payment suspension. Shortly after 2003 credit card balances climbed into bubble territory before a big correction. Do you see a scenario where the total credit card debt levels off under such circumstances? Combining record high debt, with decades high interest rates and restarting various payments while ending/reducing stimulus does not to me look like conditions that present a rosy picture going forward.
@cohodk said:
Your views are through the lens of your demographic, which is very myopic, and self-centered.
@cohodk said:
We focus on $1 trillion in credit card debt while ignoring the $1 trillion in added income via higher interest rates.
Credit card debt isn't up much from 2008 while the stock market and real estate values have tripled. The US stock market has a value of $90 trillion and residential real estate of $45 trillion, while the US bond market is worth over $50 trillion.
Why do we place so much emphasis on the small while ignoring the big?
.
Talk about being "myopic".
Your "analysis" leaves out a component of major importance.
Yes, with higher interest rates, some people (the net savers) earn more in interest income.
But did you know that interest rates on credit card debt have also increased, a lot ?
In 2008 the typical interest rate on credit card debt was about 13%.
Today it is about 21%
.
Apple stock has increased more in value just this year than the total of that credit card debt.
Why so much focus on the small?
.
Total credit card debt in the United States is approaching one trillion dollars. Not "small".
.
Total credit card debt has averaged about $750 billion for the last 20 years. So you're talking about an increase of $250 billion. Yeah, it's small.
So let's look at delinquency rates, since this is really what you are afraid of.....
$750 billion @ 13% = $97.5 billion in total annual credit card debt service payments.
$1000 billion @ 21% = $210.0 billion in total annual credit card debt service payments.
$97.5 billion in 2008 dollars is equivalent to $137.0 billion in 2023 dollars.
So, since 2008, credit card debt service payments have increased by a lot more than the rate of CPI inflation.
@cohodk said:
Your views are through the lens of your demographic, which is very myopic, and self-centered.
@cohodk said:
We focus on $1 trillion in credit card debt while ignoring the $1 trillion in added income via higher interest rates.
Credit card debt isn't up much from 2008 while the stock market and real estate values have tripled. The US stock market has a value of $90 trillion and residential real estate of $45 trillion, while the US bond market is worth over $50 trillion.
Why do we place so much emphasis on the small while ignoring the big?
.
Talk about being "myopic".
Your "analysis" leaves out a component of major importance.
Yes, with higher interest rates, some people (the net savers) earn more in interest income.
But did you know that interest rates on credit card debt have also increased, a lot ?
In 2008 the typical interest rate on credit card debt was about 13%.
Today it is about 21%
.
Apple stock has increased more in value just this year than the total of that credit card debt.
Why so much focus on the small?
.
Total credit card debt in the United States is approaching one trillion dollars. Not "small".
.
Total credit card debt has averaged about $750 billion for the last 20 years. So you're talking about an increase of $250 billion. Yeah, it's small.
So let's look at delinquency rates, since this is really what you are afraid of.....
$750 billion @ 13% = $97.5 billion in total annual credit card debt service payments.
$1000 billion @ 21% = $210.0 billion in total annual credit card debt service payments.
$97.5 billion in 2008 dollars is equivalent to $137.0 billion in 2023 dollars.
So, since 2008, credit card debt service payments have increased by a lot more than the rate of CPI inflation.
.
So what? If credit card debt is a problem then stop living beyond means or get another job. Personal responsibility.
@cohodk said:
Your views are through the lens of your demographic, which is very myopic, and self-centered.
@cohodk said:
We focus on $1 trillion in credit card debt while ignoring the $1 trillion in added income via higher interest rates.
Credit card debt isn't up much from 2008 while the stock market and real estate values have tripled. The US stock market has a value of $90 trillion and residential real estate of $45 trillion, while the US bond market is worth over $50 trillion.
Why do we place so much emphasis on the small while ignoring the big?
.
Talk about being "myopic".
Your "analysis" leaves out a component of major importance.
Yes, with higher interest rates, some people (the net savers) earn more in interest income.
But did you know that interest rates on credit card debt have also increased, a lot ?
In 2008 the typical interest rate on credit card debt was about 13%.
Today it is about 21%
.
Apple stock has increased more in value just this year than the total of that credit card debt.
Why so much focus on the small?
.
Total credit card debt in the United States is approaching one trillion dollars. Not "small".
.
Total credit card debt has averaged about $750 billion for the last 20 years. So you're talking about an increase of $250 billion. Yeah, it's small.
So let's look at delinquency rates, since this is really what you are afraid of.....
$750 billion @ 13% = $97.5 billion in total annual credit card debt service payments.
$1000 billion @ 21% = $210.0 billion in total annual credit card debt service payments.
$97.5 billion in 2008 dollars is equivalent to $137.0 billion in 2023 dollars.
So, since 2008, credit card debt service payments have increased by a lot more than the rate of CPI inflation.
.
So what? If credit card debt is a problem then stop living beyond means or get another job. Personal responsibility.
Historical debt servicing levels.
.
"So what" ?
Head in the sand again ?
You or I might not carry credit card balances. But when a lot of other people do, that will affect everyone in the economy, including people that don't borrow.
@cohodk said:
Your views are through the lens of your demographic, which is very myopic, and self-centered.
@cohodk said:
We focus on $1 trillion in credit card debt while ignoring the $1 trillion in added income via higher interest rates.
Credit card debt isn't up much from 2008 while the stock market and real estate values have tripled. The US stock market has a value of $90 trillion and residential real estate of $45 trillion, while the US bond market is worth over $50 trillion.
Why do we place so much emphasis on the small while ignoring the big?
.
Talk about being "myopic".
Your "analysis" leaves out a component of major importance.
Yes, with higher interest rates, some people (the net savers) earn more in interest income.
But did you know that interest rates on credit card debt have also increased, a lot ?
In 2008 the typical interest rate on credit card debt was about 13%.
Today it is about 21%
.
Apple stock has increased more in value just this year than the total of that credit card debt.
Why so much focus on the small?
.
Total credit card debt in the United States is approaching one trillion dollars. Not "small".
.
Total credit card debt has averaged about $750 billion for the last 20 years. So you're talking about an increase of $250 billion. Yeah, it's small.
So let's look at delinquency rates, since this is really what you are afraid of.....
Loan delinquency was relatively low due to free Covid money.
But that is over. And so is student loan forgiveness.
What direction will delinquencies go when people have to start paying their student loans again and they aren't getting any more free Covid money ? And interest rates on their loan balances go up ?
@cohodk said:
Your views are through the lens of your demographic, which is very myopic, and self-centered.
@cohodk said:
We focus on $1 trillion in credit card debt while ignoring the $1 trillion in added income via higher interest rates.
Credit card debt isn't up much from 2008 while the stock market and real estate values have tripled. The US stock market has a value of $90 trillion and residential real estate of $45 trillion, while the US bond market is worth over $50 trillion.
Why do we place so much emphasis on the small while ignoring the big?
.
Talk about being "myopic".
Your "analysis" leaves out a component of major importance.
Yes, with higher interest rates, some people (the net savers) earn more in interest income.
But did you know that interest rates on credit card debt have also increased, a lot ?
In 2008 the typical interest rate on credit card debt was about 13%.
Today it is about 21%
.
Apple stock has increased more in value just this year than the total of that credit card debt.
Why so much focus on the small?
.
Total credit card debt in the United States is approaching one trillion dollars. Not "small".
.
Total credit card debt has averaged about $750 billion for the last 20 years. So you're talking about an increase of $250 billion. Yeah, it's small.
So let's look at delinquency rates, since this is really what you are afraid of.....
$750 billion @ 13% = $97.5 billion in total annual credit card debt service payments.
$1000 billion @ 21% = $210.0 billion in total annual credit card debt service payments.
$97.5 billion in 2008 dollars is equivalent to $137.0 billion in 2023 dollars.
So, since 2008, credit card debt service payments have increased by a lot more than the rate of CPI inflation.
.
So what? If credit card debt is a problem then stop living beyond means or get another job. Personal responsibility.
Historical debt servicing levels.
.
"So what" ?
Head in the sand again ?
You or I might not carry credit card balances. But when a lot of other people do, that will affect everyone in the economy, including people that don't borrow.
.
Kinda like saying you or I might not have huge savings but other people do and the $1 trillion in interest earned now will effect everyone in the economy. Don't dismiss or trivialize this stimulus.
does anyone remember when the dollar was as good as gold? Now it takes many more dollars to be as good as gold. Is gold worth more or is the dollar worth less?
I don't remember, well before my time. Everything is worth more now not just the Au. THKS!
If that's really what you think, you should think again about what derryb is saying. Reports I'm hearing are that inflation is 26% right now. My understanding is that prices are going up, it's not because that cheeseburger is "worth" more.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
If that's really what you think, you should think again about what derryb is saying. Reports I'm hearing are that inflation is 26% right now.
You might want to find a different reporting service.
Perhaps your sources can provide some evidence of this 26% inflation?
@jmski52 said:
If that's really what you think, you should think again about what derryb is saying. Reports I'm hearing are that inflation is 26% right now.
You might want to find a different reporting service.
Perhaps your sources can provide some evidence of this 26% inflation?
Another big data point tomorrow..
And you can continue believing that 4-5% CPI is a fact.
@jmski52 said:
If that's really what you think, you should think again about what derryb is saying. Reports I'm hearing are that inflation is 26% right now.
You might want to find a different reporting service.
Perhaps your sources can provide some evidence of this 26% inflation?
Another big data point tomorrow..
And you can continue believing that 4-5% CPI is a fact.
That's old news. Eggs are not up 50%. Neither is butter. And airfares are stable.
How much are each of those up over the past month or two?
But, if you believe inflation is running at 26%, then PMs are sucking wind as an inflation hedge like never before.
@cohodk said:
US oil reserves is about 700 million barrels. The world consumes about 100 million barrels per day. You think a week's worth of supply would drop prices?
It's not a week's worth, it's about 2 1/2 months worth. It's not intended for the entire world, just to make up the net import share.
@cohodk said:
US oil reserves is about 700 million barrels. The world consumes about 100 million barrels per day. You think a week's worth of supply would drop prices?
It's not a week's worth, it's about 2 1/2 months worth. It's not intended for the entire world, just to make up the net import share.
Oil price is global. A little extra supply in the US will not drop global Oil prices. The use of the Strategic reserves is nothing more than a political ploy to show the masses "they" care.
Recently we've seen the Saudis try to tighten supply to raise prices and it's been a big flop.
The world is awash with Oil, but it is used as a political weapon to scare us. We are weak.
@cohodk said:
Oil price is global. A little extra supply in the US will not drop global Oil prices. The use of the Strategic reserves is nothing more than a political ploy to show the masses "they" care. Recently we've seen the Saudis try to tighten supply to raise prices and it's been a big flop. The world is awash with Oil, but it is used as a political weapon to scare us. We are weak.
The SPR is not intended to influence prices. It's a strategic reserve in case of war.
Saudi Arabia's "cut" was designed to offset continued weakness in oil demand in Europe and China. Both are consuming about 2 MMbbl./d lower than forecast.
@cohodk said:
Oil price is global. A little extra supply in the US will not drop global Oil prices. The use of the Strategic reserves is nothing more than a political ploy to show the masses "they" care. Recently we've seen the Saudis try to tighten supply to raise prices and it's been a big flop. The world is awash with Oil, but it is used as a political weapon to scare us. We are weak.
The SPR is not intended to influence prices. It's a strategic reserve in case of war.
Yes, it's supposed to be used in case of war but it never is, instead used as a political tool to influence prices.
Domestic producers could easily meet domestic demand in event of complete global disruption. The SPR has only been used to curry political favor.
@cohodk said:
Yes, it's supposed to be used in case of war but it never is, instead used as a political tool to influence prices.
Domestic producers could easily meet domestic demand in event of complete global disruption. The SPR has only >been used to curry political favor.
It's been used only 3 times in 45 years. I'd hardly say every 15 years is "political" though the most recent outflows in 2021-22 certainly were.
Domestic producers could only meet domestic demand at much higher prices, probably $50/bbl. higher.
@cohodk said:
Yes, it's supposed to be used in case of war but it never is, instead used as a political tool to influence prices.
Domestic producers could easily meet domestic demand in event of complete global disruption. The SPR has only >been used to curry political favor.
It's been used only 3 times in 45 years. I'd hardly say every 15 years is "political" though the most recent outflows in 2021-22 certainly were.
Did anyone else notice that "health insurance" in the CPI went down 24.9% over the last 12 months? Seems absurd until you learn how the BLS calculates costs, lol.
The CPI doesn't take into account any health insurance premiums paid by you directly, deducted from your pay, or any contributions fom your employer. Instead, they look at retained profits of healthcare companies and how much was paid out in benefits. So, I doubt anyone's health insurance premium actually went down over the past year, but if the healthcare insurers were less profitable (which is the case), then healthcare insurance cost gets to show a big drop even though the consumer likely paid more over the same period.
The cost of servicing US government debt jumped by 25% in the first nine months of the fiscal year, reaching $652 billion and contributing to a major widening in the budget deficit.
For the nine months through June 2023, the federal deficit hit $1.39 trillion, up some 170% from the same period the year before, according to Treasury Department data released on Thursday.
There are approximately 330 million Americans and close to $660 billion in just INTEREST to service the federal debt the past 9 months. So, every American basically now owes more than $2,400 a year or $200/month just to cover the interest for the government benefits we already received.
And we are borrowing another $2 trillion projected just for this fiscal year to fund government spending.
Who is winning?
At JPMorgan, net income just jumped 67% to $14.5 billion, helped by a $2.7 billion gain on its acquisition of First Republic. Return on common equity climbed to 20%. The bank predicted net interest income will surge about 30% this year after previously forecasting 26%.
@Goldminers said:
The cost of servicing US government debt jumped by 25% in the first nine months of the fiscal year, reaching $652 billion and contributing to a major widening in the budget deficit.
For the nine months through June 2023, the federal deficit hit $1.39 trillion, up some 170% from the same period the year before, according to Treasury Department data released on Thursday.
LOL I used to get warnings of bans back during the "previous" administration for discussing such things as 'Merican debt.....
The imaginary digits seem to be moving much slower than that of the predecessors. RGDS!
Thank mother nature that the mammals continue to evolve. THKS!
@cohodk,
National assets in the graphic is all the household assets plus gov financial assets and also includes minerals, forests, fish, and human capital, etc. You have to balance the $194T in total assets against the $101T in total US debt. The total debt is 4x GDP. Sure, total assets look strong, but what if real estate and stocks adjust back to historical levels based on measures such as PE ratio or affordability? Also, you need to subtract the $300K in per capita nationa debt from the $600K to get a net worth per capita of around $300K. Also keep in mind that is the average, the median is significantly less.
@jmski52 said: The same debt clock shows $194 trillion in US national assets, or almost $600,000 per person.
If one is going to make the debt a personal responsibility then he must also make the assets personal.
I've been faithfully paying my taxes all these years and I expect that my taxes will be going up, so I'd like my cut of $600,000 now please.
Exactly. The debt isn't yours either. You are not personally responsible for it.
We own the debt. We don't owe it. Your govt owes.
aren't you the one who keeps reminding us that we the people are the government?
Besides, we the people are personally responsible either in the form of the cash taxes we pay (or go to jail) or the inflation tax when new money is printed to pay the bills.
@jmski52 said: The same debt clock shows $194 trillion in US national assets, or almost $600,000 per person.
If one is going to make the debt a personal responsibility then he must also make the assets personal.
I've been faithfully paying my taxes all these years and I expect that my taxes will be going up, so I'd like my cut of $600,000 now please.
Exactly. The debt isn't yours either. You are not personally responsible for it.
We own the debt. We don't owe it. Your govt owes.
aren't you the one who keeps reminding us that we the people are the government?
No. I say we the people have the power to change the govt, but we are weak.
Besides, we the people are personally responsible either in the form of the cash taxes we pay (or go to jail) or the inflation tax when new money is printed to pay the bills.
Well, I appreciate your tax payment into my account. The inflation comes.from we the people spending and spending and spending. That's why inflation is higher in FL than Alaska, neither state prints money.
@jmski52 said: The same debt clock shows $194 trillion in US national assets, or almost $600,000 per person.
If one is going to make the debt a personal responsibility then he must also make the assets personal.
I've been faithfully paying my taxes all these years and I expect that my taxes will be going up, so I'd like my cut of $600,000 now please.
Exactly. The debt isn't yours either. You are not personally responsible for it.
We own the debt. We don't owe it. Your govt owes.
aren't you the one who keeps reminding us that we the people are the government?
No. I say we the people have the power to change the govt, but we are weak.
Besides, we the people are personally responsible either in the form of the cash taxes we pay (or go to jail) or the inflation tax when new money is printed to pay the bills.
Well, I appreciate your tax payment into my account. The inflation comes.from we the people spending and spending and spending. That's why inflation is higher in FL than Alaska, neither state prints money.
What do you expect ?
Do you think people are going to sit on their money, or spend it today to buy things that will cost more tomorrow ?
The velocity of money is influenced by the volume of it.
@cohodk said:
Yes, it's supposed to be used in case of war but it never is, instead used as a political tool to influence prices.
Domestic producers could easily meet domestic demand in event of complete global disruption. The SPR has only >been used to curry political favor.
It's been used only 3 times in 45 years. I'd hardly say every 15 years is "political" though the most recent outflows in 2021-22 certainly were.
Domestic producers could only meet domestic demand at much higher prices, probably $50/bbl. higher.
When Chevron bought Union oil ages ago they figured that $60/Bbl was their figure.
Package Corp. of America ($2.2B in sales in 2022) has reported that cardboard box sales fell 12.7% in the first quarter and another 9.8% in the second quarter of this year.
What's cardboard box demand have to do with the state of the economy?
Perhaps Package Corp is overpriced and people buy their cardboard boxes elsewhere?
Maybe 'Mericans are spending their $$$ on travel / experiences and not boxes of junk since the pandemic has ended and it's safe to be out and about again?
Perhaps the youth don't need no stinking possessions in the Metaverse?
The list could go on and on. One thing is for certain, the economy is still BOOMIN! THKS!!
Just about everything purchased goes in a box first. Box sales are a good marker for how well the economy is doing and a preliminary gauge for money velocity. But I can understand how you can't understand this.
In April-June quarter US credit card debt up 4%. Annualized that'd be 16%+. Meanwhile, delinquencies are up to 7.2% from 6.5%, and are at the highest level since 2012. BOOMIN? Or about to go KABOOM?
@RobM said:
In April-June quarter US credit card debt up 4%. Annualized that'd be 16%+. Meanwhile, delinquencies are up to 7.2% from 6.5%, and are at the highest level since 2012. BOOMIN? Or about to go KABOOM?
I'm getting credit card offers left and right. Offering bonuses to activate and charge X amount in the first 90 days. I've accepted them all and as always, they get paid in full every month. Experian, Trans Union etc. keep reporting back to me I have credit card "debt". Yup #Boomin! THKS!! for the FREE Au!!!!
Comments
.> @dcarr said:
Total credit card debt has averaged about $750 billion for the last 20 years. So you're talking about an increase of $250 billion. Yeah, it's small.
So let's look at delinquency rates, since this is really what you are afraid of.....
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm
Near historical lows....across the board.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
@cohodk,
Credit card delinquency rates are up 6 quarters in a row. Average credit card rate is over 50% higher (20% now vs 13% in 2003 -20 years ago). That means that credit card holders are paying around 30% more each month now vs 20 years ago on the same balance. Over the same period, price levels are up 66% and population grew 15%. With all considered (inflation, population growth, interest on payments) one can argue that credit card burden is nearly identical now to what it was in 2003....... but what you are not considering is that the consumer is coming off of 2+ years of massive paycheck stimulus, boosted child credits, rent payment suspension, and student loan payment suspension. Shortly after 2003 credit card balances climbed into bubble territory before a big correction. Do you see a scenario where the total credit card debt levels off under such circumstances? Combining record high debt, with decades high interest rates and restarting various payments while ending/reducing stimulus does not to me look like conditions that present a rosy picture going forward.
.
$750 billion @ 13% = $97.5 billion in total annual credit card debt service payments.
$1000 billion @ 21% = $210.0 billion in total annual credit card debt service payments.
$97.5 billion in 2008 dollars is equivalent to $137.0 billion in 2023 dollars.
So, since 2008, credit card debt service payments have increased by a lot more than the rate of CPI inflation.
.
So what? If credit card debt is a problem then stop living beyond means or get another job. Personal responsibility.
Historical debt servicing levels.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
"So what" ?
Head in the sand again ?
You or I might not carry credit card balances. But when a lot of other people do, that will affect everyone in the economy, including people that don't borrow.
.
.
Loan delinquency was relatively low due to free Covid money.
But that is over. And so is student loan forgiveness.
What direction will delinquencies go when people have to start paying their student loans again and they aren't getting any more free Covid money ? And interest rates on their loan balances go up ?
.
Not "weak".
But the average voter is "stupid".
An apologist for the status quo will always attempt to trivialize, dismiss, and undermine anything that illuminates the financial realm.
Kinda like saying you or I might not have huge savings but other people do and the $1 trillion in interest earned now will effect everyone in the economy. Don't dismiss or trivialize this stimulus.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
does anyone remember when the dollar was as good as gold? Now it takes many more dollars to be as good as gold. Is gold worth more or is the dollar worth less?
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
I don't remember, well before my time. Everything is worth more now not just the Au. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I don't remember, well before my time. Everything is worth more now not just the Au. THKS!
If that's really what you think, you should think again about what derryb is saying. Reports I'm hearing are that inflation is 26% right now. My understanding is that prices are going up, it's not because that cheeseburger is "worth" more.
I knew it would happen.
You might want to find a different reporting service.
Perhaps your sources can provide some evidence of this 26% inflation?
Another big data point tomorrow..
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And you can continue believing that 4-5% CPI is a fact.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
That's old news. Eggs are not up 50%. Neither is butter. And airfares are stable.
How much are each of those up over the past month or two?
But, if you believe inflation is running at 26%, then PMs are sucking wind as an inflation hedge like never before.
Eggs are in deflation and lower than a year ago.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Butter and airfares. All down over the last year.
And you can continue believing that 26% inflation is a fact. LmAO!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's not a week's worth, it's about 2 1/2 months worth. It's not intended for the entire world, just to make up the net import share.
Oil price is global. A little extra supply in the US will not drop global Oil prices. The use of the Strategic reserves is nothing more than a political ploy to show the masses "they" care.
Recently we've seen the Saudis try to tighten supply to raise prices and it's been a big flop.
The world is awash with Oil, but it is used as a political weapon to scare us. We are weak.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The SPR is not intended to influence prices. It's a strategic reserve in case of war.
Saudi Arabia's "cut" was designed to offset continued weakness in oil demand in Europe and China. Both are consuming about 2 MMbbl./d lower than forecast.
Yes, it's supposed to be used in case of war but it never is, instead used as a political tool to influence prices.
Domestic producers could easily meet domestic demand in event of complete global disruption. The SPR has only been used to curry political favor.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's been used only 3 times in 45 years. I'd hardly say every 15 years is "political" though the most recent outflows in 2021-22 certainly were.
Domestic producers could only meet domestic demand at much higher prices, probably $50/bbl. higher.
There have been dozens of SPR releases.
https://www.energy.gov/ceser/history-spr-releases
Not true. All currently operating and new wells would be profitable at today's price.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/748207/breakeven-prices-for-us-oil-producers-by-oilfield/
And the cost could be much lower in time of true emergency if govt fees were suspended.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yup. 26%. Lol Haha
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-wholesale-inflation-slows-to-a-crawl-ppi-shows-83855be2
Expectations for global rates on relative basis impact currencies and PMs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Just left there, Publix did not get the CPI memo
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
Did anyone else notice that "health insurance" in the CPI went down 24.9% over the last 12 months? Seems absurd until you learn how the BLS calculates costs, lol.
The CPI doesn't take into account any health insurance premiums paid by you directly, deducted from your pay, or any contributions fom your employer. Instead, they look at retained profits of healthcare companies and how much was paid out in benefits. So, I doubt anyone's health insurance premium actually went down over the past year, but if the healthcare insurers were less profitable (which is the case), then healthcare insurance cost gets to show a big drop even though the consumer likely paid more over the same period.
Pop-tarts are BOGO this week!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
the boxes are smaller.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wheres-the-highest-inflation-in-u-s-florida-and-the-far-west-2fce978a?mod=home-page
You could always move to Alaska.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
the boxes are smaller.
Running from and ignoring incompetent monetary policy is not the answer. Neither is defending it. LOL
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
The cost of servicing US government debt jumped by 25% in the first nine months of the fiscal year, reaching $652 billion and contributing to a major widening in the budget deficit.
For the nine months through June 2023, the federal deficit hit $1.39 trillion, up some 170% from the same period the year before, according to Treasury Department data released on Thursday.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Nothing in the article discusses monetary policy, but rather an imbalance in the demand/supply imbalance.
Nor would moving to Alaksa be running away, but rather running to.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
There are approximately 330 million Americans and close to $660 billion in just INTEREST to service the federal debt the past 9 months. So, every American basically now owes more than $2,400 a year or $200/month just to cover the interest for the government benefits we already received.
And we are borrowing another $2 trillion projected just for this fiscal year to fund government spending.
Who is winning?
At JPMorgan, net income just jumped 67% to $14.5 billion, helped by a $2.7 billion gain on its acquisition of First Republic. Return on common equity climbed to 20%. The bank predicted net interest income will surge about 30% this year after previously forecasting 26%.
Keep stacking. Other countries are doing it.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Current encn101 conditions appear to be #BOOMIN! #LG!! #EZ!!! RGDS!!!!
Listen and learn or get stuck in the bunker gutter for the rest of your decades/daze as THEY always say. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
LOL I used to get warnings of bans back during the "previous" administration for discussing such things as 'Merican debt.....
The imaginary digits seem to be moving much slower than that of the predecessors. RGDS!
Thank mother nature that the mammals continue to evolve. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
The same debt clock shows $194 trillion in US national assets, or almost $600,000 per person.
If one is going to make the debt a personal responsibility then he must also make the assets personal.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
@cohodk,
National assets in the graphic is all the household assets plus gov financial assets and also includes minerals, forests, fish, and human capital, etc. You have to balance the $194T in total assets against the $101T in total US debt. The total debt is 4x GDP. Sure, total assets look strong, but what if real estate and stocks adjust back to historical levels based on measures such as PE ratio or affordability? Also, you need to subtract the $300K in per capita nationa debt from the $600K to get a net worth per capita of around $300K. Also keep in mind that is the average, the median is significantly less.
The same debt clock shows $194 trillion in US national assets, or almost $600,000 per person.
If one is going to make the debt a personal responsibility then he must also make the assets personal.
I've been faithfully paying my taxes all these years and I expect that my taxes will be going up, so I'd like my cut of $600,000 now please.
I knew it would happen.
Exactly. The debt isn't yours either. You are not personally responsible for it.
We own the debt. We don't owe it. Your govt owes.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
aren't you the one who keeps reminding us that we the people are the government?
Besides, we the people are personally responsible either in the form of the cash taxes we pay (or go to jail) or the inflation tax when new money is printed to pay the bills.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
No. I say we the people have the power to change the govt, but we are weak.
Well, I appreciate your tax payment into my account. The inflation comes.from we the people spending and spending and spending. That's why inflation is higher in FL than Alaska, neither state prints money.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Glad to see that production jobs are returning. LOL
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
.> @cohodk said:
What do you expect ?
Do you think people are going to sit on their money, or spend it today to buy things that will cost more tomorrow ?
The velocity of money is influenced by the volume of it.
When Chevron bought Union oil ages ago they figured that $60/Bbl was their figure.
I Wonder how fast a Zimbabwe dollar travels. LOL
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
Fitch cuts US credit rating
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
Package Corp. of America ($2.2B in sales in 2022) has reported that cardboard box sales fell 12.7% in the first quarter and another 9.8% in the second quarter of this year.
What's cardboard box demand have to do with the state of the economy?
Think about it.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
Perhaps Package Corp is overpriced and people buy their cardboard boxes elsewhere?
Maybe 'Mericans are spending their $$$ on travel / experiences and not boxes of junk since the pandemic has ended and it's safe to be out and about again?
Perhaps the youth don't need no stinking possessions in the Metaverse?
The list could go on and on. One thing is for certain, the economy is still BOOMIN! THKS!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Just about everything purchased goes in a box first. Box sales are a good marker for how well the economy is doing and a preliminary gauge for money velocity. But I can understand how you can't understand this.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
Plenty of boxes moving around up here in The Commonwealth. BOOMIN! RGDS!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
In April-June quarter US credit card debt up 4%. Annualized that'd be 16%+. Meanwhile, delinquencies are up to 7.2% from 6.5%, and are at the highest level since 2012. BOOMIN? Or about to go KABOOM?
I'm getting credit card offers left and right. Offering bonuses to activate and charge X amount in the first 90 days. I've accepted them all and as always, they get paid in full every month. Experian, Trans Union etc. keep reporting back to me I have credit card "debt". Yup #Boomin! THKS!! for the FREE Au!!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.