@derryb said:
Has the current banking crisis become larger than the one in 2008> @cohodk said:
$1.43 for a dozen eggs at BJs. Dang!!
are the eggs now smaller?
Same size as in 2008.
Shame that your dollar has shrunk 41% in the same time frame.
41% loss in purchasing power since the great financial crisis.
That sure is a lot in a relative short period of time. Wonder if they can escalate it. LOL
Household income has increased 109% since 2008. Not to mention debt has decreased 87% and the net worth has increased somewhere in the neighborhood of 800%. #LIVIN
I'm no rocket math scientist but a 109% income increase over the same period of a 41% loss of purchasing power is not something to be proud of.
Net work increase of 800% in a period where the money supply was only increased by 300%? Reckon inflation counts for the rest. LOL
Note how the middle class's share of such increases drops after each FED credit asset bubble and only rises when such bubbles pop:
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
@derryb said:
Has the current banking crisis become larger than the one in 2008> @cohodk said:
$1.43 for a dozen eggs at BJs. Dang!!
are the eggs now smaller?
Same size as in 2008.
Shame that your dollar has shrunk 41% in the same time frame.
41% loss in purchasing power since the great financial crisis.
That sure is a lot in a relative short period of time. Wonder if they can escalate it. LOL
Household income has increased 109% since 2008. Not to mention debt has decreased 87% and the net worth has increased somewhere in the neighborhood of 800%. #LIVIN
I'm no rocket math scientist but a 109% income increase over the same period of a 41% loss of purchasing power is not something to be proud of.
I'm very proud of my financial situation. Open the bunker and step outside. Let those beautiful rays shine down on you. Take a deep breath of that wonderful fresh air. The world is an amazing place.
Since you seem to struggle at math perhaps I can help you: Salary up 109% purchasing power down 41% (according to you). 109 - 41 = 68. I can purchase 68% more crap now than I could in 2008. However my lifestyle remains a frugal one so that extra 68% mostly gets invested elsewhere. RGDS!
@blitzdude said:
I can purchase 68% more crap now than I could in 2008. However my lifestyle remains a frugal one so that extra 68% mostly gets invested elsewhere. RGDS!
The reality is that the dollar purchases 41% less than it did in 2008. You, nor the rest of us, would have to be frugal if there were no reduction in purchasing power. Adapting (frugality) at the user end is the wrong answer to the shrinking dollar problem.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
@blitzdude said:
I can purchase 68% more crap now than I could in 2008. However my lifestyle remains a frugal one so that extra 68% mostly gets invested elsewhere. RGDS!
The reality is that the dollar purchases 41% less than it did in 2008. You, nor the rest of us, would have to be frugal if there were no reduction in purchasing power. Adapting (frugality) at the user end is the wrong answer to the shrinking dollar problem.
I've chose to be frugal my entire life and it has absolutely nothing to do with the dollars purchasing power. It's how we roll up here in The Commonwealth. THKS!
@derryb said:
Has the current banking crisis become larger than the one in 2008> @cohodk said:
$1.43 for a dozen eggs at BJs. Dang!!
are the eggs now smaller?
Same size as in 2008.
Shame that your dollar has shrunk 41% in the same time frame.
41% loss in purchasing power since the great financial crisis.
That sure is a lot in a relative short period of time. Wonder if they can escalate it. LOL
Household income has increased 109% since 2008. Not to mention debt has decreased 87% and the net worth has increased somewhere in the neighborhood of 800%. #LIVIN
I'm no rocket math scientist but a 109% income increase over the same period of a 41% loss of purchasing power is not something to be proud of.
Net work increase of 800% in a period where the money supply was only increased by 300%? Reckon inflation counts for the rest. LOL
Note how the middle class's share of such increases drops after each FED credit asset bubble and only rises when such bubbles pop:
Your chart shows the bottom half. If you don't like being in the bottom half, then do something about.. I'm sure you look around everyday looking at folk wondering how they've even made it this far in life. We all ain't equal, so stop making us out to be and pretending we should be.
@blitzdude said:
Household income has increased 109% since 2008. Not to mention debt has decreased 87% and the net worth has increased somewhere in the neighborhood of 800%. #LIVIN
.
Where did you get those numbers, the Metaverse ?
Pull your head out of the sand and take a look around at reality.
According to the Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank, median household income was $50,303 in 2008. In 2023 the same measurement is $70,784. (70784 / 50303 = 1.41) = 141%. So 2023 income is 141% of what it was in 2008. Median household income increased by 41% during this time (a 41% increase on $50,303 equals $70,784, which is not even close to the "109%" that you claimed). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N
According to Wallet Hub, average household debt peaked at about $156,000 in 2008-2009. Then declined to about $125,000 in 2013. But then it increased to about $145,000 in early 2023. So, since 2008, household debt has decreased by 7%, not the ridiculous "87%" you claimed ($156,000, minus 7% of $156,000, equals $145,000). https://wallethub.com/edu/d/household-debt-report/120725
BUT, the above numbers are adjusted for CPI (inflation). If that adjustment is taken out, current average household debt is $204,225. So average household debt levels have actually increased from $156,000 (in 2008, in 2008 dollars) to $204,225 (in 2023, in 2023 dollars).
According to the Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank, average household net worth was about $60,000 in 2008. As of early 2023 it stands at $140,000. That is an increase of 133%, not your outlandish "800%". https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=FBGH
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@blitzdude said:
I'm very proud of my financial situation. Open the bunker and step outside. Let those beautiful rays shine down on you. Take a deep breath of that wonderful fresh air. The world is an amazing place.
Since you seem to struggle at math perhaps I can help you: Salary up 109% purchasing power down 41% (according to you). 109 - 41 = 68. I can purchase 68% more crap now than I could in 2008. However my lifestyle remains a frugal one so that extra 68% mostly gets invested elsewhere. RGDS!
Using those (made-up) numbers, here is an example:
2008 salary $100,000, increased by 109%, equals $209,000 in 2023.
Purchasing power of a dollar decreased by 41%, which means a 2023 dollar buys (100 - 41 = 59) 59% of what it did in 2008.
So, in 2008 dollars, the net purchasing power of the salary was $100,000 in 2008, and (0.59 * $209,000 = $123,310) $123,310 in 2023. So if the net purchasing power of your salary went from $100,000 in 2008 to $123,310 in 2023, then you would be able to buy 23.31% more stuff in 2023 than 2008. That is less than half of the claimed "68%" increase.
But now take a look at the real numbers from real sources.
According to the CPI inflation calculator, $140.90 in 2023 dollars has the same purchasing power as $100 did in 2008: https://in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2008?amount=100
Or, to put it another way, A 2023 dollar only buys about 71% of what it did in 2008.
2008 median household income was $50,303 in purchasing power in 2008 dollars.
In 2023 it is $70,784. But due to inflation, the comparable purchasing power of a median household income is (0.71 * $70,784 = $50,256.64). So actual purchasing power of the median household income has not increased at all from 2008 to 2023. And that is based on the severely understated CPI. With true inflation numbers, the actual purchasing power of the median household has dropped from 2008 levels and is lower in 2023 than it was in 2008.
To look at it another way, in 2008 it would take the typical household about 3 years of income to pay off all their debt (if 100% of that income was put towards paying down that debt). In 2023 it is slightly less, but still close to 3 years.
And if the US national debt is included:
In 2008 there were about 116 million households, and in 2023 about 132 million.
During this time, the total national debt increased from about $10 trillion to about $31 trillion.
2008 National Debt per household: $86,000.
2023 National Debt per household: $235.000 (the equivalent of $167,000 in 2008 dollars).
So the US National Debt burden is increasing much faster than median household income, and faster than the average household net worth.
2008-2023 (NOT adjusted for inflation):
Median household income increased 1.41x
Average household net worth increased 2.33x
US National Debt per household increased 2.73x
Inflation (CPI) would account for 1.41x of these increases.
2008-2023 (adjusted for CPI):
Median household income increased by 1.00x (0% increase) (ZERO)
Average household net worth increased by 1.65x (65% increase)
US National Debt per household increased 1.94x (94% increase)
@dcarr,
I applaud you for providing valid numbers for median household income and other data. I looked up the numbers myself but then realized that blitzdude was providing details for his own household. That is a bit odd in itself.
One of his chickens just sent me a PM with financial statements.
2008 - income = $20K, debt = $100K, net worth = $1K
2023 - income = $41.9K, debt = $187K, net worth = $9K
The chicken also informed me that if her shelter were to be destroyed by fire, wind, or flood, blitzdude might not be able to "recoup" his losses.
@blitzdude said:
Household income has increased 109% since 2008. Not to mention debt has decreased 87% and the net worth has increased somewhere in the neighborhood of 800%. #LIVIN
.
Where did you get those numbers, the Metaverse ?
Pull your head out of the sand and take a look around at reality.
I got those numbers from my payroll stubs and my bank accounts.
Perhaps you should join @derryb; exit the bunker, breathe some fresh air and let them rays of sun shine down on your grape. The great thing about life is we get to make our own choices. There is nothing written in stone that says you have to be an underachiever. GD LCK!
@dcarr said:
2008-2023 (adjusted for CPI):
Median household income increased by 1.00x (0% increase) (ZERO)
Average household net worth increased by 1.65x (65% increase)
US National Debt per household increased 1.94x (94% increase)
Your numbers seem to state the average American is better off today than in 2008 as income has kept place with inflation and assets are up 65%.
Since you included a per household figure for US debt, what is the value of US National assets per household?
While national medium income is slightly up as Dan pointed out, average American (middle class) is far from better off. Another ttypical "the rich get richer."
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
@dcarr said:
2008-2023 (adjusted for CPI):
Median household income increased by 1.00x (0% increase) (ZERO)
Average household net worth increased by 1.65x (65% increase)
US National Debt per household increased 1.94x (94% increase)
Your numbers seem to state the average American is better off today than in 2008 as income has kept place with inflation and assets are up 65%.
Since you included a per household figure for US debt, what is the value of US National assets per household?
The generally low interest rates during the years 2008-2023 allowed household net worth to increase via higher home values. But rising interest rates will put a significant drag on average household net worth.
US Federal Government, total financial assets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGTFASA027N
2008: 1.275 Trillion total, $11,000 per household.
2023: 4.000 Trillion total (estimated, in 2023 dollars), $30,300 per household.
Adjusted for CPI, this is a real increase of $11,000 to $21,500 per household of 1.95x (95% increase, about the same pace as the increase in the US National Debt).
But again, rising interest rates will not be kind to the US Federal Government financial situation.
And that might not seem so bad, but remember that (adjusted for CPI) the US Federal Government financial situation has gone from:
2008: 1.275 trillion in assets, 10 trillion in debt.
to
2023: 2.840 trillion in assets, 22 trillion in debt.
Even a banker would say that is not a pretty picture.
@blitzdude said:
Household income has increased 109% since 2008. Not to mention debt has decreased 87% and the net worth has increased somewhere in the neighborhood of 800%. #LIVIN
.
Where did you get those numbers, the Metaverse ?
Pull your head out of the sand and take a look around at reality.
I got those numbers from my payroll stubs and my bank accounts.
.
Well, if you don't indicate the source of your data, how are we supposed to know ?
Also, I wouldn't trust your math in calculating those percentages. But if they are correct, then congratulations on doing much better financially than the average American household.
.
@blitzdude said:
Perhaps you should join @derryb; exit the bunker, breathe some fresh air and let them rays of sun shine down on your grape. The great thing about life is we get to make our own choices. There is nothing written in stone that says you have to be an underachiever. GD LCK!
.
Due to your frequent boasting, I know how great you do, all the time, with everything (except math)
What I do, or don't do, outside the forums, is not your concern.
@dcarr said:
2008-2023 (adjusted for CPI):
Median household income increased by 1.00x (0% increase) (ZERO)
Average household net worth increased by 1.65x (65% increase)
US National Debt per household increased 1.94x (94% increase)
Your numbers seem to state the average American is better off today than in 2008 as income has kept place with inflation and assets are up 65%.
Since you included a per household figure for US debt, what is the value of US National assets per household?
The generally low interest rates during the years 2008-2023 allowed household net worth to increase via higher home values. But rising interest rates will put a significant drag on average household net worth.
Are rates rising, or have they risen? What sort of significant drag do you envision? Has this drag already occurred or is there more?
US Federal Government, total financial assets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGTFASA027N
2008: 1.275 Trillion total, $11,000 per household.
2023: 4.000 Trillion total (estimated, in 2023 dollars), $30,300 per household.
Adjusted for CPI, this is a real increase of $11,000 to $21,500 per household of 1.95x (95% increase, about the same pace as the increase in the US National Debt).
But again, rising interest rates will not be kind to the US Federal Government financial situation.
And that might not seem so bad, but remember that (adjusted for CPI) the US Federal Government financial situation has gone from:
2008: 1.275 trillion in assets, 10 trillion in debt.
to
2023: 2.840 trillion in assets, 22 trillion in debt.
Even a banker would say that is not a pretty picture.
So you think the value of US govt assets is $2.8 trillion, or about the same as the market cap of Apple?
@cohodk said:
Are rates rising, or have they risen? What sort of significant drag do you envision? Has this drag already occurred or is there more?
.
Rates have already risen enough to dent home values. The rates don't even need to keep going up to damage household net worth. The damage can be done with rates staying where they are now.
.
@cohodk said:
So you think the value of US govt assets is $2.8 trillion, or about the same as the market cap of Apple?
.
That is what the Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank reports (did you not look at the link I provided in the prior post ?):
US Federal Government, total financial assets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGTFASA027N
@cohodk said:
Are rates rising, or have they risen? What sort of significant drag do you envision? Has this drag already occurred or is there more?
.
Rates have already risen enough to dent home values. The rates don't even need to keep going up to damage household net worth. The damage can be done with rates staying where they are now.
.
@cohodk said:
So you think the value of US govt assets is $2.8 trillion, or about the same as the market cap of Apple?
.
That is what the Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank reports (did you not look at the link I provided in the prior post ?):
US Federal Government, total financial assets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGTFASA027N
.
I knew before I added the question that that's the link you would cite. I'm asking if you believe it accurately portrays the assets of the United States of America?
To the previous question, what further damage to household net worth do you envision? Median home prices have dropped about 10%, according to FRED, and equities and fixed income down about 10-15%. Has not the impact of rising rates already affected household net worth? Do you believe stability of rates at current levels would cause further "denting"?
@cohodk said:
Are rates rising, or have they risen? What sort of significant drag do you envision? Has this drag already occurred or is there more?
.
Rates have already risen enough to dent home values. The rates don't even need to keep going up to damage household net worth. The damage can be done with rates staying where they are now.
.
@cohodk said:
So you think the value of US govt assets is $2.8 trillion, or about the same as the market cap of Apple?
.
That is what the Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank reports (did you not look at the link I provided in the prior post ?):
US Federal Government, total financial assets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGTFASA027N
.
I knew before I added the question that that's the link you would cite. I'm asking if you believe it accurately portrays the assets of the United States of America?
To the previous question, what further damage to household net worth do you envision? Median home prices have dropped about 10%, according to FRED, and equities and fixed income down about 10-15%. Has not the impact of rising rates already affected household net worth? Do you believe stability of rates at current levels would cause further "denting"?
It says "financial assets", but doesn't define exactly what that includes. I don't think there is any incentive for the Federal Reserve Bank to under-report those assets.
The largest component of household net worth is equity in the house. Relatively high inflation and relatively high interest rates (compared to a couple years ago) is causing some households to draw on that equity to get by.
It takes time for higher rates to erode household finances. Even if rates drop a little from here, the erosion will continue.
If, for example, you have a fixed-rate mortgage from a couple years ago, you wouldn't suffer a higher rate mortgage until you purchase a new residence. Eventually, everybody has to move (some sooner than others).
The generally low interest rates during the years 2008-2023 allowed household net worth to increase via higher home values. But rising interest rates will put a significant drag on average household net worth.
Are rates rising, or have they risen? What sort of significant drag do you envision? Has this drag already occurred or is there more?
I think rates probably will go up more defying a lot of sentiment out there expecting them to drop.
There is a chance that Congress may not pass the debt ceiling increase first vote. If so, a spike in rates could occur.
When the $4 trillion debt ceiling increase does pass, the Treasury will issue +/- a trillion in new notes, bills, and bonds the next several months. That is a lot of new supply which will reduce demand. Lower prices equal higher interest rates.
Inflation has not dropped enough for the Fed to stop if they are serious about 2%.
The generally low interest rates during the years 2008-2023 allowed household net worth to increase via higher home values. But rising interest rates will put a significant drag on average household net worth.
Are rates rising, or have they risen? What sort of significant drag do you envision? Has this drag already occurred or is there more?
I think rates probably will go up more defying a lot of sentiment out there expecting them to drop.
There is a chance that Congress may not pass the debt ceiling increase first vote. If so, a spike in rates could occur.
For how long, a day, a week, a month?
When the $4 trillion debt ceiling increase does pass, the Treasury will issue +/- a trillion in new notes, bills, and bonds the next several months. That is a lot of new supply which will reduce demand. Lower prices equal higher interest rates.
Increased supply does not reduce demand.
There is 10s of trillions of $$$$ looking to buy rates.
Aw heck, as long as we can squeeze out another $4 trillion in debt, think of all the great projects we can spend the newly-created dollars on! There's no end to the number of dependents we can support with all that money - and we can have 87,000 new armed agents to chase after anyone who disagrees with "the program".
Gold purchases by the central banks is at record amounts. Bernanke said that central banks hold gold because of "tradition". But the excuse I hear often around here is that gold doesn't pay interest or contribute to productivity. Why then would a central bank be buying more of it, or why would a central bank even own it?
Interesting thing is that gold holdings by the US gov't are as much or even more closely-guarded secret than most anything else that the government controls. Why the secrecy?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The generally low interest rates during the years 2008-2023 allowed household net worth to increase via higher home values. But rising interest rates will put a significant drag on average household net worth.
Are rates rising, or have they risen? What sort of significant drag do you envision? Has this drag already occurred or is there more?
I think rates probably will go up more defying a lot of sentiment out there expecting them to drop.
There is a chance that Congress may not pass the debt ceiling increase first vote. If so, a spike in rates could occur.
For how long, a day, a week, a month?
When the $4 trillion debt ceiling increase does pass, the Treasury will issue +/- a trillion in new notes, bills, and bonds the next several months. That is a lot of new supply which will reduce demand. Lower prices equal higher interest rates.
Increased supply does not reduce demand.
Yes, eventually supply and demand will reach some type of market equilibrium. However, a rapid increase in treasury issuance will likely result in people initially offering lower buy prices, which will drive interest rates up to compensate, which will then increase demand, etc. In addition, if rates don't drop like current market curves indicate there will be other bond ETF's or traders selling in addition to the government as they see their principal drop.
It is easy to ask questions, but much more difficult to answer them.
@jmski52 said:
Interesting thing is that gold holdings by the US gov't are as much or even more closely-guarded secret than most anything else that the government controls. Why the secrecy?
There's no secrecy, only wild conspiracies from the doomsdayers. RGDS!
First, coho - you try to tell us that you are buying bonds, when in fact you were (supposedly) buying short term T-bills because the yield is higher for short term debt than for long term debt when the yield curve is inverted.
Now, you're telling us that low-yield/high risk longterm debt is more desirable than higher-yielding/lower risk debt.
And you're telling us this when uncontrolled spending and massive debt creation is right in your face. Yeah, get you some of those 30-year Treasuries. Just do it!
LOL
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
First, coho - you try to tell us that you are buying bonds, when in fact you were (supposedly) buying short term T-bills because the yield is higher for short term debt than for long term debt when the yield curve is inverted.
Now, you're telling us that low-yield/high risk longterm debt is more desirable than higher-yielding/lower risk debt.
And you're telling us this when uncontrolled spending and massive debt creation is right in your face. Yeah, get you some of those 30-year Treasuries. Just do it!
LOL
First....tbills are bonds. Stop being dumb.
Second, you said the inverted yield curve is because nobody is buying longer dated bonds. This is an incorrect statement.
Third, you go off on uncontrolled debt creation which I never commented on. I'm not a buyer of 30 yr bonds..yet...because there is too much BUYING which is keeping yields low.
Hmmm....that's the opposite of what you think. Get out of the bunker dude!!
Uncontrolled debt creation directly affects the value of the dollar, whether you think so or not - which in turn affects whether or not anyone wants to buy long term US debt.
The Fed can expand their balance sheet and buy all the long term debt they want to support the bond market and stock market, but who wants to buy it from them? Not me. Not you.
Get out of your ivory tower, dude!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
Uncontrolled debt creation directly affects the value of the dollar, whether you think so or not - which in turn affects whether or not anyone wants to buy long term US debt.
The Fed can expand their balance sheet and buy all the long term debt they want to support the bond market and stock market, but who wants to buy it from them? Not me. Not you.
Yet we do. And will continue to. Look at history...we've had "uncontrolled" debt creation for over 40 years and we've bought long term each and every day.
BTW---you could have made almost 5% going long the 30 yr bond last week.
"Labor Department Announces Massive Revision To Wage Data, Revealing Much Worse Outlook"
Links to political rags? You can do better.
As always, since you cannot dispute the data you attempt to discredit the source. Why were you not disputing the erroneous Labor Dept. data when it was first released? Oh, that's right, you were too busy praising it's effect on the status of the economy.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
"Labor Department Announces Massive Revision To Wage Data, Revealing Much Worse Outlook"
Links to political rags? You can do better.
As always, since you cannot dispute the data you attempt to discredit the source. Why were you not disputing the erroneous Labor Dept. data when it was first released? Oh, that's right, you were too busy praising it's effect on the status of the economy.
I can easily dispute it, but to what purpose? You will only understand what you've been conditioned to understand.
There is no "erroneous" data. There is a household survey and a payroll survey.
"Labor Department Announces Massive Revision To Wage Data, Revealing Much Worse Outlook"
Links to political rags? You can do better.
As always, since you cannot dispute the data you attempt to discredit the source. Why were you not disputing the erroneous Labor Dept. data when it was first released? Oh, that's right, you were too busy praising it's effect on the status of the economy.
I can easily dispute it, but to what purpose? You will only understand what you've been conditioned to understand.
There is no "erroneous" data. There is a household survey and a payroll survey.
Comments
I'm no rocket math scientist but a 109% income increase over the same period of a 41% loss of purchasing power is not something to be proud of.
Net work increase of 800% in a period where the money supply was only increased by 300%? Reckon inflation counts for the rest. LOL
Note how the middle class's share of such increases drops after each FED credit asset bubble and only rises when such bubbles pop:
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
We used to grow cars, steel and appliances in nationwide factories. And you been fooled into settling for eggs? LOL
My complaint is our factories are too small or nonexistent.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
I'm very proud of my financial situation. Open the bunker and step outside. Let those beautiful rays shine down on you. Take a deep breath of that wonderful fresh air. The world is an amazing place.
Since you seem to struggle at math perhaps I can help you: Salary up 109% purchasing power down 41% (according to you). 109 - 41 = 68. I can purchase 68% more crap now than I could in 2008. However my lifestyle remains a frugal one so that extra 68% mostly gets invested elsewhere. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
The reality is that the dollar purchases 41% less than it did in 2008. You, nor the rest of us, would have to be frugal if there were no reduction in purchasing power. Adapting (frugality) at the user end is the wrong answer to the shrinking dollar problem.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
I've chose to be frugal my entire life and it has absolutely nothing to do with the dollars purchasing power. It's how we roll up here in The Commonwealth. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Your chart shows the bottom half. If you don't like being in the bottom half, then do something about.. I'm sure you look around everyday looking at folk wondering how they've even made it this far in life. We all ain't equal, so stop making us out to be and pretending we should be.
Somebody has to sit on the bench.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So build new.ones. but you won't, because you like cheap crap from China. You made this bed.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
Where did you get those numbers, the Metaverse ?
Pull your head out of the sand and take a look around at reality.
According to the Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank, median household income was $50,303 in 2008. In 2023 the same measurement is $70,784. (70784 / 50303 = 1.41) = 141%. So 2023 income is 141% of what it was in 2008. Median household income increased by 41% during this time (a 41% increase on $50,303 equals $70,784, which is not even close to the "109%" that you claimed).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N
According to Wallet Hub, average household debt peaked at about $156,000 in 2008-2009. Then declined to about $125,000 in 2013. But then it increased to about $145,000 in early 2023. So, since 2008, household debt has decreased by 7%, not the ridiculous "87%" you claimed ($156,000, minus 7% of $156,000, equals $145,000).
https://wallethub.com/edu/d/household-debt-report/120725
BUT, the above numbers are adjusted for CPI (inflation). If that adjustment is taken out, current average household debt is $204,225. So average household debt levels have actually increased from $156,000 (in 2008, in 2008 dollars) to $204,225 (in 2023, in 2023 dollars).
According to the Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank, average household net worth was about $60,000 in 2008. As of early 2023 it stands at $140,000. That is an increase of 133%, not your outlandish "800%".
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=FBGH
.
.
Don't ever let @blitzedude help at math !
Using those (made-up) numbers, here is an example:
2008 salary $100,000, increased by 109%, equals $209,000 in 2023.
Purchasing power of a dollar decreased by 41%, which means a 2023 dollar buys (100 - 41 = 59) 59% of what it did in 2008.
So, in 2008 dollars, the net purchasing power of the salary was $100,000 in 2008, and (0.59 * $209,000 = $123,310) $123,310 in 2023. So if the net purchasing power of your salary went from $100,000 in 2008 to $123,310 in 2023, then you would be able to buy 23.31% more stuff in 2023 than 2008. That is less than half of the claimed "68%" increase.
But now take a look at the real numbers from real sources.
According to the CPI inflation calculator, $140.90 in 2023 dollars has the same purchasing power as $100 did in 2008:
https://in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2008?amount=100
Or, to put it another way, A 2023 dollar only buys about 71% of what it did in 2008.
2008 median household income was $50,303 in purchasing power in 2008 dollars.
In 2023 it is $70,784. But due to inflation, the comparable purchasing power of a median household income is (0.71 * $70,784 = $50,256.64). So actual purchasing power of the median household income has not increased at all from 2008 to 2023. And that is based on the severely understated CPI. With true inflation numbers, the actual purchasing power of the median household has dropped from 2008 levels and is lower in 2023 than it was in 2008.
To look at it another way, in 2008 it would take the typical household about 3 years of income to pay off all their debt (if 100% of that income was put towards paying down that debt). In 2023 it is slightly less, but still close to 3 years.
And if the US national debt is included:
In 2008 there were about 116 million households, and in 2023 about 132 million.
During this time, the total national debt increased from about $10 trillion to about $31 trillion.
2008 National Debt per household: $86,000.
2023 National Debt per household: $235.000 (the equivalent of $167,000 in 2008 dollars).
So the US National Debt burden is increasing much faster than median household income, and faster than the average household net worth.
2008-2023 (NOT adjusted for inflation):
Median household income increased 1.41x
Average household net worth increased 2.33x
US National Debt per household increased 2.73x
Inflation (CPI) would account for 1.41x of these increases.
2008-2023 (adjusted for CPI):
Median household income increased by 1.00x (0% increase) (ZERO)
Average household net worth increased by 1.65x (65% increase)
US National Debt per household increased 1.94x (94% increase)
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@dcarr,
I applaud you for providing valid numbers for median household income and other data. I looked up the numbers myself but then realized that blitzdude was providing details for his own household. That is a bit odd in itself.
One of his chickens just sent me a PM with financial statements.
2008 - income = $20K, debt = $100K, net worth = $1K
2023 - income = $41.9K, debt = $187K, net worth = $9K
The chicken also informed me that if her shelter were to be destroyed by fire, wind, or flood, blitzdude might not be able to "recoup" his losses.
There's a reason the gutter hoards never make it out of the bunker. Someone has to occupy the bottom. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I got those numbers from my payroll stubs and my bank accounts.
Perhaps you should join @derryb; exit the bunker, breathe some fresh air and let them rays of sun shine down on your grape. The great thing about life is we get to make our own choices. There is nothing written in stone that says you have to be an underachiever. GD LCK!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Your numbers seem to state the average American is better off today than in 2008 as income has kept place with inflation and assets are up 65%.
Since you included a per household figure for US debt, what is the value of US National assets per household?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
While national medium income is slightly up as Dan pointed out, average American (middle class) is far from better off. Another ttypical "the rich get richer."
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
The generally low interest rates during the years 2008-2023 allowed household net worth to increase via higher home values. But rising interest rates will put a significant drag on average household net worth.
US Federal Government, total financial assets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGTFASA027N
2008: 1.275 Trillion total, $11,000 per household.
2023: 4.000 Trillion total (estimated, in 2023 dollars), $30,300 per household.
Adjusted for CPI, this is a real increase of $11,000 to $21,500 per household of 1.95x (95% increase, about the same pace as the increase in the US National Debt).
But again, rising interest rates will not be kind to the US Federal Government financial situation.
And that might not seem so bad, but remember that (adjusted for CPI) the US Federal Government financial situation has gone from:
2008: 1.275 trillion in assets, 10 trillion in debt.
to
2023: 2.840 trillion in assets, 22 trillion in debt.
Even a banker would say that is not a pretty picture.
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Well, if you don't indicate the source of your data, how are we supposed to know ?
Also, I wouldn't trust your math in calculating those percentages. But if they are correct, then congratulations on doing much better financially than the average American household.
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Due to your frequent boasting, I know how great you do, all the time, with everything (except math)
What I do, or don't do, outside the forums, is not your concern.
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Are rates rising, or have they risen? What sort of significant drag do you envision? Has this drag already occurred or is there more?
So you think the value of US govt assets is $2.8 trillion, or about the same as the market cap of Apple?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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Rates have already risen enough to dent home values. The rates don't even need to keep going up to damage household net worth. The damage can be done with rates staying where they are now.
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That is what the Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank reports (did you not look at the link I provided in the prior post ?):
US Federal Government, total financial assets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGTFASA027N
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I knew before I added the question that that's the link you would cite. I'm asking if you believe it accurately portrays the assets of the United States of America?
To the previous question, what further damage to household net worth do you envision? Median home prices have dropped about 10%, according to FRED, and equities and fixed income down about 10-15%. Has not the impact of rising rates already affected household net worth? Do you believe stability of rates at current levels would cause further "denting"?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It says "financial assets", but doesn't define exactly what that includes. I don't think there is any incentive for the Federal Reserve Bank to under-report those assets.
The largest component of household net worth is equity in the house. Relatively high inflation and relatively high interest rates (compared to a couple years ago) is causing some households to draw on that equity to get by.
It takes time for higher rates to erode household finances. Even if rates drop a little from here, the erosion will continue.
If, for example, you have a fixed-rate mortgage from a couple years ago, you wouldn't suffer a higher rate mortgage until you purchase a new residence. Eventually, everybody has to move (some sooner than others).
I think rates probably will go up more defying a lot of sentiment out there expecting them to drop.
There is a chance that Congress may not pass the debt ceiling increase first vote. If so, a spike in rates could occur.
When the $4 trillion debt ceiling increase does pass, the Treasury will issue +/- a trillion in new notes, bills, and bonds the next several months. That is a lot of new supply which will reduce demand. Lower prices equal higher interest rates.
Inflation has not dropped enough for the Fed to stop if they are serious about 2%.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
For how long, a day, a week, a month?
Increased supply does not reduce demand.
There is 10s of trillions of $$$$ looking to buy rates.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Aw heck, as long as we can squeeze out another $4 trillion in debt, think of all the great projects we can spend the newly-created dollars on! There's no end to the number of dependents we can support with all that money - and we can have 87,000 new armed agents to chase after anyone who disagrees with "the program".
Gold purchases by the central banks is at record amounts. Bernanke said that central banks hold gold because of "tradition". But the excuse I hear often around here is that gold doesn't pay interest or contribute to productivity. Why then would a central bank be buying more of it, or why would a central bank even own it?
Interesting thing is that gold holdings by the US gov't are as much or even more closely-guarded secret than most anything else that the government controls. Why the secrecy?
I knew it would happen.
Yes, eventually supply and demand will reach some type of market equilibrium. However, a rapid increase in treasury issuance will likely result in people initially offering lower buy prices, which will drive interest rates up to compensate, which will then increase demand, etc. In addition, if rates don't drop like current market curves indicate there will be other bond ETF's or traders selling in addition to the government as they see their principal drop.
It is easy to ask questions, but much more difficult to answer them.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Increased supply does not reduce demand.
There is 10s of trillions of $$$$ looking to buy rates.
The inverted yield curve says that nobody wants longterm US debt, and the reason is because everyone sees what's coming and it's not pretty.
I knew it would happen.
sure it does. It delivers more supply to demanding buyers, thus reducing the number of demanding buyers.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
There's no secrecy, only wild conspiracies from the doomsdayers. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
There's no secrecy, only wild conspiracies from the doomsdayers. RGDS!
In that case, explain the results of the most recent audit of gold held by the US Govt. This should be interesting.
I knew it would happen.
Actually the opposite is true
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Actually the opposite is true
First, coho - you try to tell us that you are buying bonds, when in fact you were (supposedly) buying short term T-bills because the yield is higher for short term debt than for long term debt when the yield curve is inverted.
Now, you're telling us that low-yield/high risk longterm debt is more desirable than higher-yielding/lower risk debt.
And you're telling us this when uncontrolled spending and massive debt creation is right in your face. Yeah, get you some of those 30-year Treasuries. Just do it!
LOL
I knew it would happen.
First....tbills are bonds. Stop being dumb.
Second, you said the inverted yield curve is because nobody is buying longer dated bonds. This is an incorrect statement.
Third, you go off on uncontrolled debt creation which I never commented on. I'm not a buyer of 30 yr bonds..yet...because there is too much BUYING which is keeping yields low.
Hmmm....that's the opposite of what you think. Get out of the bunker dude!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Uncontrolled debt creation directly affects the value of the dollar, whether you think so or not - which in turn affects whether or not anyone wants to buy long term US debt.
The Fed can expand their balance sheet and buy all the long term debt they want to support the bond market and stock market, but who wants to buy it from them? Not me. Not you.
Get out of your ivory tower, dude!
I knew it would happen.
Yet we do. And will continue to. Look at history...we've had "uncontrolled" debt creation for over 40 years and we've bought long term each and every day.
BTW---you could have made almost 5% going long the 30 yr bond last week.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It sucks out there....
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-jobs-report-may-2023
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Like all other news it depends on how you spin it. . .
While People Employed Tumbles By 310K Sending Unemployment Rate Higher
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
All 13 leading economic indicators are pointing down.
I knew it would happen.
Americans remain heavily dependent on importing manufactured goods:
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Isn't that the objective?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yup. More people working and wages higher. Horrible.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Judging by todays employment report looks solid.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I believe under the debt ceiling deal, that deferred college loans payments end. Thats a few billion a month less to spend on stuff.
Yepper
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Because all you old white guys, having benefitted from uncontrolled spending over the last 40+ years, are now retiring.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
When liars figure, figures lie.
"Labor Department Announces Massive Revision To Wage Data, Revealing Much Worse Outlook"
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Links to political rags? You can do better.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As always, since you cannot dispute the data you attempt to discredit the source. Why were you not disputing the erroneous Labor Dept. data when it was first released? Oh, that's right, you were too busy praising it's effect on the status of the economy.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
I can easily dispute it, but to what purpose? You will only understand what you've been conditioned to understand.
There is no "erroneous" data. There is a household survey and a payroll survey.
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sure looks like liars (or idiots) are figuring and the resulting figures are not true. At least it was good news for a while. LOL
Fake Employment Statistics Exposed
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/zero-hedge/
So let's follow your fake news---everyone is unemployed and not making more money, how does this boost silver price?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
you tell me
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
I rate it B.