@7Jaguars said:
And mint to order may drop secondary market values and snuff out the flippers. Oh, well, just too d--- bad then. Actually the market will correct as will the order patterns and numbers. Many examples could be cited, but could pick out the Jackie Robinson gold unc. amongst MANY others.
It doesn't just snuff out the flippers. It snuffs out the casual collectors and might well harm the hobby. I've seen collections that were nothing but Proof sets and things pulled from circulation. The seller needed money and when they discovered that their proof sets had plummeted in value, they are likely never going to be involved in the hobby again.
I also think that people underestimate the value of retailers in promoting the hobby. How many people got started by buying from ads in publications and on TV and then grew into collectors? Everyone on here just assumes that the entire population of prospective commemorative buyers knows about the U.S. Mint and checks for their releases. Many people find out about them weeks or months later. And those people would either never find out about it or be shut out by some of these short order windows people are suggesting.
You want to snuff out the flippers, auction off the mintage. The Mint achieves the maximum return on their product and the sale price will be the secondary market value and the flippers will mostly drop away. You will still have flippers who make 70s or who run promos. But the casual buyers' club flippers will likely disappear.
@fathom said:
If they went to HHL 3 that is reason to believe they can handle demand moving forward. Otherwise they would have HHL 1.
Unfortunately they may have miscalculated again. The ebay premiums are through the roof.
I think we may be looking at minutes to sellout in August again. Even with some sort of bot mitigation.
I all but guarantee it. People are delusional about these coins. There is more demand than coins at the release price. HHL are of limited impact. The median number purchased is usually only 3 to 5 in most cases. The bots will still be there and the secondary market value of these will draw in EVEN MORE buyers' clubs. Remember, when the first coins were released the published bids were only $50 or so above release. Now they've been selling for $150 to $200 above release for weeks making it more enticing.
And EVERY BOT OWNER has a computer and can just turn off the bot if they want. Or they can let the bot run and also use the computer. You will mitigate some traffic by slowing the bots - and probably a few humans also - but there will still be 300,000 people logged in trying to buy 175,000 coins. At HHL of 3, that is 3x as many buyers as coins.
@fathom said:
If they went to HHL 3 that is reason to believe they can handle demand moving forward. Otherwise they would have HHL 1.
Unfortunately they may have miscalculated again. The ebay premiums are through the roof.
I think we may be looking at minutes to sellout in August again. Even with some sort of bot mitigation.
I completely disagree. The Mint didn't go with a HHL of 1 because it would turn a $150.00 coin ( $85.00 cost) into a $50.00 coin.
HHL of 1 with a mintage of 175,000 would be a disaster in the Long Term...
I don't know that the HHL by itself would do that. Ultimately, final demand matters and it remains to be seen what it would be. At $50, I imagine a lot more people would collect all 6 ($300 total) than at $75 ($450) or at $200 ($1200).
People are so narrowly focused on their own acquisition that they dismiss what dealers/flippers do for the coin and the hobby by promoting them and distributing them more broadly. Just because the people on this forum troll the Mint website doesn't mean that everyone does. Even just getting them slabbed is an endeavor made easier and accessible by bulk submitters. A bulk submitter pays under $10 to get a coin slabbed while an individual collector pays $40+.
Still looking for the sweet spot, I see- where the dealers and flippers get shut out, all the collectors who want one can get one and still be assured they won't lose money when they decide to sell.
@MasonG said:
Still looking for the sweet spot, I see- where the dealers and flippers get shut out, all the collectors who want one can get one and still be assured they won't lose money when they decide to sell.
There needs to be a stickering program for "true collectors". If we could issue Scarlet C's to the "true collectors" then anyone without the sticker couldn't buy one.
[You're the widow of a police officer? You want the law enforcement commemorative to honor his memory? I'm sorry, ma'am, you aren't a true collector and aren't entitled.]
@MasonG said:
Still looking for the sweet spot, I see- where the dealers and flippers get shut out, all the collectors who want one can get one and still be assured they won't lose money when they decide to sell.
But....but.....you don't understand! The flippers and dealers are the heroes of society and saviors of coin collecting! We should all salute them, bow down, and kiss their left arse cheeks. They benefit us all by clogging up the Mint's web site and each buying hundreds or thousands of the coins we are unable to get our hands on. It's all for our benefit! The thousands they are making in profit by gobbling up every Mint release they can is simply not enough considering the value they bring to society and life in general.
@MasonG said:
Still looking for the sweet spot, I see- where the dealers and flippers get shut out, all the collectors who want one can get one and still be assured they won't lose money when they decide to sell.
But....but.....you don't understand! The flippers and dealers are the heroes of society and saviors of coin collecting! We should all salute them, bow down, and kiss their left arse cheeks. They benefit us all by clogging up the Mint's web site and each buying hundreds or thousands of the coins we are unable to get our hands on. It's all for our benefit! The thousands they are making in profit by gobbling up every Mint release they can is simply not enough considering the value they bring to society and life in general.
Most flippers don't make thousands. And some of the market makers work hard to make money on things like proof and mint sets.
But I'm willing to eliminate them. Let's have an auction. Or raise the price to $200. The flippers will move on.
"The seller needed money and when they discovered that their proof sets had plummeted in value, they are likely never going to be involved in the hobby again"
the hobby isn't for everyone, nor is it a requirement that people participate in it. In this case they would be better off not trying again. Lesson learned.
@3stars said:
"The seller needed money and when they discovered that their proof sets had plummeted in value, they are likely never going to be involved in the hobby again"
the hobby isn't for everyone, nor is it a requirement that people participate in it. In this case they would be better off not trying again. Lesson learned.
@MasonG said:
Still looking for the sweet spot, I see- where the dealers and flippers get shut out, all the collectors who want one can get one and still be assured they won't lose money when they decide to sell.
But....but.....you don't understand! The flippers and dealers are the heroes of society and saviors of coin collecting! We should all salute them, bow down, and kiss their left arse cheeks. They benefit us all by clogging up the Mint's web site and each buying hundreds or thousands of the coins we are unable to get our hands on. It's all for our benefit! The thousands they are making in profit by gobbling up every Mint release they can is simply not enough considering the value they bring to society and life in general.
Most flippers don't make thousands. And some of the market makers work hard to make money on things like proof and mint sets.
But I'm willing to eliminate them. Let's have an auction. Or raise the price to $200. The flippers will move on.
Oh, I see! So let's paint the scene of a flipper who buys, oh say, 300 coins (let's say ASEs). You trying to tell me that flipper will not sell the coins for a mere $10 per coin over cost ($3,000 profit)? I guarantee you that the coins will sell for more than $10 over list. To me, that equals thousands in profit. Unless, of course, that flipper is truly noble and magnanimous and donates the coins to those collectors he helped shut out from buying the coin from the Mint.
A bulk submitter pays under $10 to get a coin slabbed while an individual collector pays $40+.
I’m a pcgs authorized dealer and I’ve never paid less than $10 for a graded coin. I think the most I have sent in was 300 coins at one time. Perhaps the price goes down for more than 1,000.
Edited to add that it will be very hard to get enough coins to make a bulk submission on the Morgan’s
A bulk submitter pays under $10 to get a coin slabbed while an individual collector pays $40+.
I’m a pcgs authorized dealer and I’ve never paid less than $10 for a graded coin. I think the most I have sent in was 300 coins at one time. Perhaps the price goes down for more than 1,000.
Edited to add that it will be very hard to get enough coins to make a bulk submission on the Morgan’s
I spoke to a forum member whose bulk rate is less than $10. I'm not sure what the threshold is but his annual submissions are over 10,000 coins
@MasonG said:
Still looking for the sweet spot, I see- where the dealers and flippers get shut out, all the collectors who want one can get one and still be assured they won't lose money when they decide to sell.
But....but.....you don't understand! The flippers and dealers are the heroes of society and saviors of coin collecting! We should all salute them, bow down, and kiss their left arse cheeks. They benefit us all by clogging up the Mint's web site and each buying hundreds or thousands of the coins we are unable to get our hands on. It's all for our benefit! The thousands they are making in profit by gobbling up every Mint release they can is simply not enough considering the value they bring to society and life in general.
Most flippers don't make thousands. And some of the market makers work hard to make money on things like proof and mint sets.
But I'm willing to eliminate them. Let's have an auction. Or raise the price to $200. The flippers will move on.
Oh, I see! So let's paint the scene of a flipper who buys, oh say, 300 coins (let's say ASEs). You trying to tell me that flipper will not sell the coins for a mere $10 per coin over cost ($3,000 profit)? I guarantee you that the coins will sell for more than $10 over list. To me, that equals thousands in profit. Unless, of course, that flipper is truly noble and magnanimous and donates the coins to those collectors he helped shut out from buying the coin from the Mint.
A LOT of flippers simply buy their HHL and sell the extras. I didn't say there were no flippers making thousands. But most flippers are like the sneaker guys and the forum members who pick up a few coins and make maybe a couple hundred.
I should agree that some poor schmuck who lost money just wasn't meant to be a collector?
A lot of forum members proudly proclaim they abandoned Mint products years ago because of the loss in value. Are they also not cut out to be collectors?
If you are one of the few collectors who plan on losing money on your collection, then I applaud you. If not, maybe you'd like to agree with me.
rule #1 of investing, and especially collecting - don't spend money you can't afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed to gain or retain the same value as when purchased.
@3stars said:
rule #1 of investing, and especially collecting - don't spend money you can't afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed to gain or retain the same value as when purchased.
I completely agree with this. Everyone should think that way. Most people don't, however.
I think the point was missed - root out the flippers - this from the collector(s). And this by letting market forces work: there will be a burn of increased mintages and then they would fall, very likely as they did in the late '90s. Loyal collectors then get their reward [to some extent].
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
@7Jaguars said:
I think the point was missed - root out the flippers - this from the collector(s). And this by letting market forces work: there will be a burn of increased mintages and then they would fall, very likely as they did in the late '90s. Loyal collectors then get their reward [to some extent].
"Their reward" being falling values for the issues with increased mintages that they buy. The flippers, of course, won't be buying these but not to worry- they'll come back when mintages fall.
Missed my point as well, the market would need an adjustment period and collectors would then come back into lay in determining mintages; there would be some low. mintages ala JR $% and Kennedy mattes, etc.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
@7Jaguars said:
Missed my point as well, the market would need an adjustment period and collectors would then come back into lay in determining mintages; there would be some low. mintages ala JR $% and Kennedy mattes, etc.
Who gives a flip about "collectors"? [See what I did there? ] If a bunch of cops want to buy law enforcement commems, they should be able to even if it is the only coin they ever want to own. The Mint makes coins for everyone who wants to buy them for whatever reason they want to buy them. The idea that "true collectors" deserve some special place in line is misplaced. Ask your cable company who they spend more time thinking about, you the customer or Fred the potential customer. The Mint wants an illusion of rarity and value, not a handful of sated collectors who buy their wares.
The fact is that there are probably no more than 10,000 collectors of commems who buy every single commem. Less if you include gold.
@WQuarterFreddie said:
My goodness! Why don't you all get a room and talk about flippers. This thread has gotten way off track!🙄🤣😂
We have a room. This is it.
More precisely - Get A Thread! This one is titled Official Morgan and Peace silver dollar thread. Maybe an "I'm I flipper - so I'm a hero saving collecting vs. I hate flippers - they're evil." thread.
@WQuarterFreddie said:
My goodness! Why don't you all get a room and talk about flippers. This thread has gotten way off track!🙄🤣😂
We have a room. This is it.
More precisely - Get A Thread! This one is titled Official Morgan and Peace silver dollar thread. Maybe an "I'm I flipper - so I'm a hero saving collecting vs. I hate flippers - they're evil." thread.
The flipper and bot issue has become central to the discussion of this release. I suppose you'd prefer a zombie thread with no discussion going on.
I was just digging around in boxes of my collection and found a lot of stuff that I clearly bought to flip (2010 5oz pucks anyone?) that was a mistake, from a "make money" perspective.
When the privy pair went on sale, a buddy of mine got locked out (as some people here did) or clogged because he's in San Jose. It was merely "tough" for me. I ordered him two of each (and two for me)
@jessewvu said:
So, are they going to sell any of the remaining Morgan’s, cc/o?
I have no inside knowledge on the answer to this, but, I would guess "yes".
1) The mint procured 1,075,000 of these unique planchets (0.858 troy oz. of .999 fine silver in essentially the same dimensions as the originals) - they either strike them, or melt them. (or save them if the continuation of these types of offerings into 2022 is not conjecture).
2) The product limit is set for each offering - it is unlikely that eg, 1000 unstruck planchets will be transferred from privy mark issues to the other yet to be offered issues.
3) The privy mark issues are still labeled "remind me", not "sold out".
4) The mint has until October (and perhaps beyond) to sort out unsold / returned items. They will likely make them available later (eg, between August and October)
again, my guess.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
The us mint allows you to get items in your cart fairly quickly. How about they send emails to those with coins in their cart to fulfill their orders before making them available on their site? Seems that would solve a ton of problems…. Perhaps only release 50% of the coins at release and let the rest go to those that get them in their carts…
@jessewvu said:
Did I find the solution to orders???
If there are more people who want coins than there are coins to go around, it doesn't matter how you rearrange those deck chairs- some people will get left out. And they'll be unhappy because the ordering process isn't fair.
@MrBear said:
I was just digging around in boxes of my collection and found a lot of stuff that I clearly bought to flip (2010 5oz pucks anyone?) that was a mistake, from a "make money" perspective.
When the privy pair went on sale, a buddy of mine got locked out (as some people here did) or clogged because he's in San Jose. It was merely "tough" for me. I ordered him two of each (and two for me)
Wholesale on the pucks is up to $180 to $190. You might make out yet.
Comments
But they have the connection and a massive amount of power. Money does not appear on the list with connections and power
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
They have power and connections
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
It doesn't just snuff out the flippers. It snuffs out the casual collectors and might well harm the hobby. I've seen collections that were nothing but Proof sets and things pulled from circulation. The seller needed money and when they discovered that their proof sets had plummeted in value, they are likely never going to be involved in the hobby again.
I also think that people underestimate the value of retailers in promoting the hobby. How many people got started by buying from ads in publications and on TV and then grew into collectors? Everyone on here just assumes that the entire population of prospective commemorative buyers knows about the U.S. Mint and checks for their releases. Many people find out about them weeks or months later. And those people would either never find out about it or be shut out by some of these short order windows people are suggesting.
You want to snuff out the flippers, auction off the mintage. The Mint achieves the maximum return on their product and the sale price will be the secondary market value and the flippers will mostly drop away. You will still have flippers who make 70s or who run promos. But the casual buyers' club flippers will likely disappear.
I all but guarantee it. People are delusional about these coins. There is more demand than coins at the release price. HHL are of limited impact. The median number purchased is usually only 3 to 5 in most cases. The bots will still be there and the secondary market value of these will draw in EVEN MORE buyers' clubs. Remember, when the first coins were released the published bids were only $50 or so above release. Now they've been selling for $150 to $200 above release for weeks making it more enticing.
And EVERY BOT OWNER has a computer and can just turn off the bot if they want. Or they can let the bot run and also use the computer. You will mitigate some traffic by slowing the bots - and probably a few humans also - but there will still be 300,000 people logged in trying to buy 175,000 coins. At HHL of 3, that is 3x as many buyers as coins.
I completely disagree. The Mint didn't go with a HHL of 1 because it would turn a $150.00 coin ( $85.00 cost) into a $50.00 coin.
HHL of 1 with a mintage of 175,000 would be a disaster in the Long Term...
I don't know that the HHL by itself would do that. Ultimately, final demand matters and it remains to be seen what it would be. At $50, I imagine a lot more people would collect all 6 ($300 total) than at $75 ($450) or at $200 ($1200).
People are so narrowly focused on their own acquisition that they dismiss what dealers/flippers do for the coin and the hobby by promoting them and distributing them more broadly. Just because the people on this forum troll the Mint website doesn't mean that everyone does. Even just getting them slabbed is an endeavor made easier and accessible by bulk submitters. A bulk submitter pays under $10 to get a coin slabbed while an individual collector pays $40+.
Still looking for the sweet spot, I see- where the dealers and flippers get shut out, all the collectors who want one can get one and still be assured they won't lose money when they decide to sell.
There needs to be a stickering program for "true collectors". If we could issue Scarlet C's to the "true collectors" then anyone without the sticker couldn't buy one.
[You're the widow of a police officer? You want the law enforcement commemorative to honor his memory? I'm sorry, ma'am, you aren't a true collector and aren't entitled.]
But....but.....you don't understand! The flippers and dealers are the heroes of society and saviors of coin collecting! We should all salute them, bow down, and kiss their left arse cheeks. They benefit us all by clogging up the Mint's web site and each buying hundreds or thousands of the coins we are unable to get our hands on. It's all for our benefit! The thousands they are making in profit by gobbling up every Mint release they can is simply not enough considering the value they bring to society and life in general.
231 auctions
9 "new listing"
26 ending in under 9 days
Most flippers don't make thousands. And some of the market makers work hard to make money on things like proof and mint sets.
But I'm willing to eliminate them. Let's have an auction. Or raise the price to $200. The flippers will move on.
Whatever it takes to make sure I get the coin and not someone else.
"The seller needed money and when they discovered that their proof sets had plummeted in value, they are likely never going to be involved in the hobby again"
the hobby isn't for everyone, nor is it a requirement that people participate in it. In this case they would be better off not trying again. Lesson learned.
Disagree.
What a surprise...
Oh, I see! So let's paint the scene of a flipper who buys, oh say, 300 coins (let's say ASEs). You trying to tell me that flipper will not sell the coins for a mere $10 per coin over cost ($3,000 profit)? I guarantee you that the coins will sell for more than $10 over list. To me, that equals thousands in profit. Unless, of course, that flipper is truly noble and magnanimous and donates the coins to those collectors he helped shut out from buying the coin from the Mint.
I’m a pcgs authorized dealer and I’ve never paid less than $10 for a graded coin. I think the most I have sent in was 300 coins at one time. Perhaps the price goes down for more than 1,000.
Edited to add that it will be very hard to get enough coins to make a bulk submission on the Morgan’s
I spoke to a forum member whose bulk rate is less than $10. I'm not sure what the threshold is but his annual submissions are over 10,000 coins
A LOT of flippers simply buy their HHL and sell the extras. I didn't say there were no flippers making thousands. But most flippers are like the sneaker guys and the forum members who pick up a few coins and make maybe a couple hundred.
I understand a lot of collectors do the same. But I'm sure that's different.
I should agree that some poor schmuck who lost money just wasn't meant to be a collector?
A lot of forum members proudly proclaim they abandoned Mint products years ago because of the loss in value. Are they also not cut out to be collectors?
If you are one of the few collectors who plan on losing money on your collection, then I applaud you. If not, maybe you'd like to agree with me.
It's hard to see exactly what the true collectors are doing because of the glare from their halo.
rule #1 of investing, and especially collecting - don't spend money you can't afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed to gain or retain the same value as when purchased.
I completely agree with this. Everyone should think that way. Most people don't, however.
Thoes who have the GOLD, and the SILVER, make the rules
I think the point was missed - root out the flippers - this from the collector(s). And this by letting market forces work: there will be a burn of increased mintages and then they would fall, very likely as they did in the late '90s. Loyal collectors then get their reward [to some extent].
Well, just Love coins, period.
"Their reward" being falling values for the issues with increased mintages that they buy. The flippers, of course, won't be buying these but not to worry- they'll come back when mintages fall.
Missed my point as well, the market would need an adjustment period and collectors would then come back into lay in determining mintages; there would be some low. mintages ala JR $% and Kennedy mattes, etc.
Well, just Love coins, period.
My goodness! Why don't you all get a room and talk about flippers. This thread has gotten way off track!🙄🤣😂
We have a room. This is it.
Who gives a flip about "collectors"? [See what I did there?
] If a bunch of cops want to buy law enforcement commems, they should be able to even if it is the only coin they ever want to own. The Mint makes coins for everyone who wants to buy them for whatever reason they want to buy them. The idea that "true collectors" deserve some special place in line is misplaced. Ask your cable company who they spend more time thinking about, you the customer or Fred the potential customer. The Mint wants an illusion of rarity and value, not a handful of sated collectors who buy their wares.
The fact is that there are probably no more than 10,000 collectors of commems who buy every single commem. Less if you include gold.
Nonsense. The ASE v75 is a resounding success at 75000.
There will be no "disasters" on this coin program. The demand is insatiable right now. I would be surprised if they keep the HHL at 3. Should be 1.
I guess you don't have any children or grandchildren that you want to give a gift.
The is a big difference between 175,000 and 75,000…
More precisely - Get A Thread! This one is titled Official Morgan and Peace silver dollar thread. Maybe an "I'm I flipper - so I'm a hero saving collecting vs. I hate flippers - they're evil." thread.
Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
The flipper and bot issue has become central to the discussion of this release. I suppose you'd prefer a zombie thread with no discussion going on.
That depends. Are they the traditional slow walking zombies or the new fast walking ones?
Fish zombies - ones that can't resist bait -
I was just digging around in boxes of my collection and found a lot of stuff that I clearly bought to flip (2010 5oz pucks anyone?) that was a mistake, from a "make money" perspective.
When the privy pair went on sale, a buddy of mine got locked out (as some people here did) or clogged because he's in San Jose. It was merely "tough" for me. I ordered him two of each (and two for me)
I skipped the last 8 pages. I need a summary. Can somebody Cliff note? ...and how many of the posts belong to jmlanzaf?
Since I am a long time Mint Customer,,,,,,,, 40+ years I believe orders should be on a seniority system.
Since I am a long time Mint Non-Customer.......50 years I believe they ought to just shut down. I have no use for coins made after 1899.
I have no inside knowledge on the answer to this, but, I would guess "yes".
1) The mint procured 1,075,000 of these unique planchets (0.858 troy oz. of .999 fine silver in essentially the same dimensions as the originals) - they either strike them, or melt them. (or save them if the continuation of these types of offerings into 2022 is not conjecture).
2) The product limit is set for each offering - it is unlikely that eg, 1000 unstruck planchets will be transferred from privy mark issues to the other yet to be offered issues.
3) The privy mark issues are still labeled "remind me", not "sold out".
4) The mint has until October (and perhaps beyond) to sort out unsold / returned items. They will likely make them available later (eg, between August and October)
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Did I find the solution to orders???
The us mint allows you to get items in your cart fairly quickly. How about they send emails to those with coins in their cart to fulfill their orders before making them available on their site? Seems that would solve a ton of problems…. Perhaps only release 50% of the coins at release and let the rest go to those that get them in their carts…
If there are more people who want coins than there are coins to go around, it doesn't matter how you rearrange those deck chairs- some people will get left out. And they'll be unhappy because the ordering process isn't fair.
not enough
Wholesale on the pucks is up to $180 to $190. You might make out yet.
All I know is that I'm willing to straight up trade 2 of my privy marks (1 CC and 1 O), for 1 each of the next 2 coins.
Straight up trade...once I have them in hand.